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Section 382 limits the amount of NOL carryforward that can be deducted by an acquiring corporation. The limitation is computed annually. Simplistically speaking, the annual limitation is computed as the buyout price x the AFR (Applicable Federal Rate). So, if the buyout price is $500M and the AFR is constant at 4%, the acquiring corporation can only claim a deduction of $20M per year. If, for example, Amarin was acquired for $500M in 2024, and has an NOL carryforward of $50M from 2005, the acquiring corporation could only claim a tax deduction in 2025 of $20M, and the remaining $30M would expire worthless. This is just an example, of course.
Those NOL carryforwards are losing value each year that passes. Not to mention the fact that an acquirer could only use about $20M per year (assuming a $500M buyout price and 4% AFR). NOL carryforwards would have been quite a bit more valuable had the market cap (and standard 90% premium on a buyout) not suffered so much.
In placebo-treated patients, the incidence rate of the primary outcome was higher in patients who had higher sdLDL-c levels at baseline compared with patients who had values below the threshold (31.7% vs. 28.0%; P=0.02). This was not the case for icosapent ethyl-treated patients (25.5% vs. 21.5%; P=0.92).
.92?
This is just a hostile takeover in disguise. The stock was being shorted to lower the buyout price. I can guarantee you that the "shorts" are cracking their champagne bottles right now.
Unfortunately, imo, we won't be inside this circle jerk. Abbvie or the like will just buy Crown.
Well, once again retail holders are scammed out of their shares.
I wouldn't doubt if the rally extends right into the earnings release. Technical traders are jumping in with the cup and handle trade, and any hint of positive news between now and earnings could trigger a major squeeze.
If Q2 revs meet or beat, don't be surprised if they preannounce within the next couple of weeks. We could jump from 3 to 6 overnight with a solid beat.
Well, looks like a buyback is now out of the question as Amarin will have to refocus on cash preservation. Cursed indeed.
6 pm ET.
Nothing matters, IMO, until we hear some positive
Strange the similarities this stock has to PLUG when you do a 1 year chart comparison. Feels like Revance has been put into a bucket of stocks that some hedgies are just shorting over and over and over and over.
The biggest risk to Revance short to intermediate term is management. They've dug themselves quite a whole, and they need a champion to dig themselves out. They have the best mousetrap, but they don't know how to sell it.
It's more injectors than you probably realize. Don't forget about the those that group order. A single order can be going to multple practices. And don't get me wrong. I'm still hopeful for the future, but not so much with Foley at the helm, and it's going to take a lot more time than myself, and WS originally anticipated. And time, as we know, is every patent holder's enemy.
You only get one shot at making a good first impression. The impression injectors have--1) I overpaid for my first orders 2) you've damaged my relationship with some of my patients by over-promising and over-pricing 3) I have no incentive to market your product for you.
And if your listening, Revance, injectors are 90% of your sales team, your reps are 10%. If injectors aren't on board, your product goes to the graveyard.
New low every time I blink. Contact IR and demand Foley's resignation. He will destroy Revance if he is allowed to remain.
Time to face the facts. Foley and his circle of clowns will ruin this company. Action needs to be taken immediately.
Foley is just a puppet for a small handful of hedge funds. Long term the stock will come out on top. Short term, these hedge funds are controlling the price. I think the market would react very favorably to his ouster, especially when these hedge funds have no choice but to run for the hills.
Shorts have been in full control for nearly 6 months. There days are numbered though.
Just as Baker Bros used and abused this stock, so to is Sarissa. It has never been about making money on the long side.
My apologies, I didn't realize the Nasdaq is down over 80% since Sarissa made it's initial "investment" in Amarin. My computer must be broken.
It's laughable that any of you still support Sarissa/Denner. The stock is trading below book value because of Sarissa/Denner.
E) many mentions in negative reviews that the negative reviews are based upon fact that movement starts at same time it did for older BONTs. Positive reviews note same thing, but then note that return to baseline takes substantially longer than with earlier BONTs. (Comment: this effect is surprising but it shows up multiple times so probably real and it would explain a lot of people’s disappointment if they are judging by movement. What fraction of practices use this measure instead of return to baseline?)
I think this is one of the biggest issues. Injectors were not properly trained by sales reps on how to set expectations for patients. Injectors hear the buzz words "6 month average duration" and this is what they were relaying to their patients. And then patients expected to get 6 months. When 4 months pass, and the patient sees movement, their first thought is the product is not working as advertised, and they call their injector to complain. Who wouldn't when the price was so high. Rather than resetting expectations, injectors have been saying, ok, c'mon in and well switch you back to Botox. Daxi meanwhile, is becoming an afterthought in these injectors minds, hence the reason many of them still aren't aware of the change in pricing. Whether Revance can reign in this problem, well, we'll have to wait and see.
With proper execution, this could be a blockbuster in 2 years. But, we are not seeing proper execution.
And in a perfect world, every dentist office in the country should be switching to Daxi for TMJ and Bruxism. Treatments can be done with a patient's regular six month cleaning.
His "analysis" was done on a cocktail napkin.
If I had to guess, your wife is a Botox rep and you are both getting very worried about supporting your current lifestyle when the paychecks start dropping.
There was no binary event at Investor Day. What some see as negative news others see as positive news. And for some there was no news at all that wasn't already apparent, other than dropping their services sector. Shorts are just in control for the time being. That can change very quickly.
So informative. All of your posts look like they're written by a 6 year old.
My real world experience--I got 6 months out of it. At about 5 months I had some movement in my forehead, but no visible lines. At 6 months the forehead lines were returning. I still had no movement in the 11s at 6 months. With my second treatment with Daxi I had very little movement after 2 days. I'm now on day 8 and I have next to no movement. I personally didn't notice any extra pain as compared to Botox. I have no reason to switch back to Botox or Dysport. No reason at all. I will say that the pricing at launch was a big turnoff for my injector. She could make more money with the competition. She was originally very excited about Daxi, but that excitement faded with the pricing and lack of incentives. Reps need to shine right now.
Yikes. Sounds like your regional manager is a bit behind the 8 ball. This is the internet age. I can tell you what color pants you put on before they're even around your waste.
Q3 Total Revenue: $73.5M
Q3 Daxi: $35M
Q3 RHA: $34.5M
Q3 Service: $4M
JMO.
Hopefully today the bulls fight back. We've been bending over for a little too long. Some big buys coming through.
I don't trust Foley. WS doesn't trust Foley. I've never seen a biotech delay commercialization of a safe, effective product after FDA approval. These patents have a finite life, and throwing out even just a few months of this life will cost millions in revenue. My guess is Foley is overspending on the aesthetic launch because of the botched rollout, And rather add to this spend and have the stock destroyed when earnings come out next, he chose to delay the therapeutic rollout, hoping revenues in aesthetics would gain traction by yearend and provide some cash flow to fund the therapeutic rollout. This scenario gives shorts plenty of time to play their games, and plenty of time for us longs to second guess our investment.
It's time to dump Foley. He's truly incompetent and behind the 8 ball in every aspect of running this business.
I would assume shorts are betting that this price cut is a reflection of the quality of the product, and will ultimately plague not only this quarter's sales, but sales indefinitely. I think they are mistaken. This price cut was necessary to align the interest of Revance with that of the injectors. And sales should surge when these interests are aligned.
I can confirm with 100% certainty that the price of Daxxify has been cut. My injector just yesterday received a message from the rep that she could now purchase for $295 a vial. (min purchase of 50). The previous price was $385.
They've finally realized the "luxury" play was a mistake. Just like you said, and just like I have said, injectors control what product a patient will use, not the patient. The pivot to compete directly with Botox based on price is the correct play here. They have a better product. Give an incentive to injectors to recommend it to patients. Give patients an incentive to use it. The hit to margins will be vastly offset by the sales volume. I can assure you, AbbVie is not happy with this news.
There's really no reason to dilute. Injectors will just underdose and charge at the same price point as Botox. Injectors will make a killing on this. But it definitely can be misleading to patients especially if they're expecting longer duration.
What do you think the odds are that this was all intentional to mitigate potential damages in the event of a loss in their patent litigation?