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the one potential catalyst (at least on the near / intermediate horizon) is a potential settlement from Amarex. It's something the company clearly needs, to halt the cycle of raising funds at ever decreasing share prices - obviously that can't continue forever, and There has already been substantial dilution, so this needs to stop.
One the one hand, Amarex clearly defaulted on their duties, and caused damage to CytoDyn. Any reasonable settlement would be signficant in our favor. On the other hand, does Amarex even has the resources to pay? Clearly their company is a mess, and I wonder if they even have the solvency to make a big payment?
At the very least, Lalezari needs to communicate something to shareholders. But - if he really wants to make a statement, and project confidence - he should BUY SHARES IN THE OPEN MARKET and join the shareholders who have lost so much money over the years. Because, at under $.15, if he doesn't think this is deep value and a home run investment, we're screwed. But if he steps up and buys a decent chunk, that's the strongest statement he can make that this company will survive, and move on to a higher SP at some point. To be clear, it's perfectly legal, and CEOs buy stock in their own companies all the time. They just have to adhere to certain windows of trading.
Come on Jay - what are you waiting for?!?
it sure seems to be headed in that direction. In fact, in the absence of any news (and i struggle to see what news is on the horizon?), we could be at $.10 a lot sooner than July 4.
The fact that we are far lower now vs. before the lifting of the hold is concerning to say the least.
yes, i miss his posts also. he is a technical guy - and while that stuff is beyond my pay grade, he did a great job of laying out what the charts were saying. For what it's worth, i'm not sure we want to know his view of what the current chart is suggesting :) But, seems like a great guy and with a lot of expertise in that area.
I also miss SALTZ, maybe was the best across any of the message boards. He nailed it - said that Nader was killing the company, and sold out (I think) in the $3 range. There are a few others that have been very good over time but who no longer post - many I can only assume have given up on CytoDyn, which i can't say i blame them at this point. Maybe they're just in constant psycho-therapy as a result of this investment and no longer have the time to post.....
you could be right, and I do worry about that for sure. Jay seems like a smart guy and a straight shooter - but he's never pulled off anything like this before - this is a different beast than running Quest Diagnostics. and if he's still on the FDA's @#$% list, that's a double whammy against us.
i think you're right. I have always believed there is value in the drug itself. In the right hands, it could create a lot of value for investors. I placed way too much focus on the drug, and not nearly enough on the leadership side when making my investment decisions. But, what I have learned (the hard way) is that for any company to succeed, you must have both - a great product, and great execution by a solid leader.
What i cannot figure out now is whether the company (and my investment by extension) can survive NPs disastrous moves. I'm not discounting the FDA and their hatred of CYDY - but I am convinced that if we had a very credible leader in place, the regulators would have treated us completely differently. They have seen us as a problem child for many years - mostly because of the way NP has behaved.
I remain very concerned, but i don't think anyone knows for sure how this will play out - despite some saying they do.
What's the explanation for the stock being at all time lows? Well, it's not short-sellers, bashers, or BP, or any of that BS peddled on pumper's paradise (aka Investors Hangout).
It's painfully simple. There is no clarity whatsoever when this company will move toward generating revenue. Sorry for the broken record message, but it is what it is. And this exploratory trial that starts this Fall, takes 18 months, and which will not qualify for any type of approval (as the FDA themselves said explicitly), doesn't qualify as moving toward generating revenue. 2026 until we get results that don't qualify for an approval?
I think Jay Lalezari is a great guy. But he has no experience pulling off anything like this - this is a much different and more challenging animal than what he did at Quest. I am pulling for him, as i don't want a total loss on my shares. But the market seems to be betting that he won't pull this off with this current plan.
I will say this about this board - i appreciate the openness. I have been positive at times and negative as well - based on progress (or lack thereof) of the company. And there is no censorship here - and I think that's generally the way it should be.
Investors Hangout on the other hand is a joke. Anything resembling a criticism is deleted - as if what's happened over the past few years at this company shouldn't raise some legitimate questions and concerns from shareholders. They post back and forth about the 1,000 indications our drug has - but ignore the fact that without progress on the business front, none of that matters. Which is why we sit at all time lows and why shareholders have virtually been wiped out. Cleary not an ounce of business sense among the entire group.
So thanks for keeping a true debate open here - allowing people to air their opinions. I really do hope to get more constructive - i promise, as soon as I see signs of real progress, i'll be the first to support it.
fantastic news. sounds like the offering went very quickly and easily - always a great sign, and run by a reputable bank. this gives the company enough financial runway to reach 2026 - the financial uncertainty is now completely off the table. my only regret was not adding more up to this point - but now that there is more volume / liquidity in the market, i will add steadily on any pullbacks.
for those who are curious, there are 2 research report out by reputable firms on RNXT that delve deep into the technology and the underlying company. Both have price targets of $4 on the stock. Of course, the potential is a large multiple of that number - as the $4 is fair value today (discounting an eventual approval which will cause the price to skyrocket).
AI will be used by everyone - it's not a differentiator for us. In fact, it will allow better funded competitors to use it more effectively - you think BPs and big biotechs are not pouring billions into AI right now? So on balance, the whole AI trend is probably a competitive negative for a thinly funded company like ours.
I don't disagree that pre-revenue biotechs can work well, assuming they are on track with a specified indication, timeline, etc - and still, it's a long haul. But we're a pre-trial, pre-revenue biotech at this point - not even on the playing field yet.
Good for you - that's a great trade. Glad someone had the good sense to sell into that run.
I don't lose sight of the fact that the 2020 / 2021 period saw pretty much everything speculative shoot through the roof - crypto, meme stocks, even an image of a monkey wearing a gold chain. It was pure insanity, and CYDY went along for the ride. Just like the tech bubble in 1998 and housing bubble in 2006 - they seem to come every decade or so, and we won't see an environment like that again for 10+ years. I should have recognized it for what it was, and pulled the rip cord.
But the punch bowl is gone (except for AI maybe), and that means for CytoDyn to have a shot, they have to become a real, revenue generating company - the market is no longer assigning value to things "on the come". That's why i feel like longs (like me) have a long road here - because i can't begin to figure out (from Lalezari's comments) when revenue could be possible for this company.
this is the key. it's one thing to be invested in a pre-revenue biotech. But we are now invested in a pre-revenue biotech with no trials - and no clarity on when we even begin a trial. To be clear, i know we announced the exploratory trial on inflammation - but that's months away from even starting - and it's just investigational. As we all know, trials take many months to enroll, and then years potentially to yield results.
Anyway, some may feel like i'm too negative at this point - but i promise you I am a long - just an extremely frustrated long. And i also admit that i made the financial mistake of a lifetime not selling at $5-$7 - talk about leaving some serious cash on the table (oh boy). But maybe the biggest frustration is that I've been invested for 7 years - and revenue / clarity seems much further away for this company now than it did when i initially invested 7 years ago. It's almost like this is a Twilight Zone episode......
thanks Grip. you called Nader out early on, and i should've listened more closely to my gut - even though i cringed every time i heard him speak, I didn't know what a disaster he would turn out to be. oh well.
for me it's too late to sell. maybe it's flawed logic, but I'd rather lose what i have left than sell everything and see it recover to $.50 or $1 in the next year or so. So, i continue to view it as a call option that may expire worthless or may be worth something some day. But in my mind, i assign very little future monetary value to it, and only check in from time to time these days.
Good luck with however you choose to play it.
It's perplexing that the SP is back down to where it was before the hold was lifted. That just makes no sense to me. I can only assume there is some source of selling pressure that stepped in on the initial price jump. But to say there shouldn't be a higher SP after removing the hold makes no sense to me, as that was a major source of uncertainty for 2 years.
At this point, there are catalysts that could occur at any time (progress / clarity on the Amarex front, partnership with an institution or company, etc.) that would be a catalyst for a higher SP. But, for me - what i'd really like to see is some clarity on a trial beyond just the exploratory trial on inflammation (which won't start until later this year and take 18 months or so). Clearly we would need a partnership on something like that - especially if it's a trial in an area like cancer, which is expensive, unless we were to get a windfall from Amarex.
So, I'm in "wait and see" mode - which i have been in for quite a while. I don't expect a lower SP like some on here - but when we get a catalyst for a much higher price, I just have no clue. Maybe we'll get another call before too long and hear something from JL.
Overall i think you are right. If someone is patient enough, there is potentially big money to be made here - the question is how long one would need to wait - and of course, the risk of getting through trials, making it to the market, etc. - all of which are big risks for any biotech.
When i first invested, this was a pure play on HIV, and we were close to an approval - with excellent trial data. That was over 7 years ago. Today, it feels like we're more or less back to square one.
But, it is what it is - and we do have the best leader we've had yet at the helm. I am still holding shares and warrants - and i wouldn't do that if I felt like the company was going to fail. But i've diversified my position out among a few other biotech plays - and have adjusted my expectations of the timing and size of the ultimate payoff here. Maybe i'll be surprised and there will be a recovery sooner - it is certainly possible.
We have learned a lot in the past several days. What we have mainly learned, is that having the hold lifted is not sufficient to raise the value of this stock / company meaningfully. The market will want to see revenue - or something very close to revenue.
I listened to the call - I think Lalezari is impressive and I like him. But I came away without a clue as to when and how we would start a major trial, beyond this relatively small investigative trial. He spent a good deal of time talking about how limited our resources are.
So, my takeaway remains as it was. We are a very long way away from revenue, and as such, from seeing a sustained recovery in the SP. the stock market no longer assigns much value to things that are a long ways off - the gravy days of 2021 are over. In reality, there are promising biotechs deep into their phase III trials that remain dirt cheap. I do think there is a decent chance the stock recovers to .25 or .50 over the next year, which is a great return - but i think we are 2-3years away from anything over $1.
I have no agenda here, other than being a long. But I see this stock as one of the best values I have ever seen in the biotech space. The total market cap is $29MM, and the company has enough cash runway to get to a 60% readout on their phase III - and the 30% readout was incredibly strong.
It's not unreasonable for them to get approval and generate significant revenue ($500MM or more) by 2026. That would imply a valuation of $2.5 Billion (biotechs trade at roughly 5X sales in many cases). Of course, a large biotech or pharma will move quickly once they see compelling phase III data (you don't have to look any further than the WSJ to see these deals occur all of the time).
So, the simple math on a valuation of $2.5 Billion is an 86X return from here. Even a massive haircut to that valuation and you'll make 25-50X once this is commercialized.
Please don't listen to the trolls on this board - they are clearly incentivized in some way, or they wouldn't spend all day posting on a chat board.
My gut is that there is some delay - likely further questions / clarification needed by the FDA - which i can understand.
Some may view me as bearish at this point - maybe so. i do still think there is a chance the company survives - but i fear that it will be a couple of years until i see any recovery in the value of my shares. As such, i've been selling down month over month - and re-deploying into 2 other biotechs that are equally cheap from a valuation standpoint, but have far better prospects than CytoDyn. To me it's better than "holding and praying" that things will get better. I still have warrants, so those will do well if things do eventually turn around.
Bigger picture, this board has generally been far more accurate than investors hangout in calling the trajectory of this investment - and i wish i had paid better attention. In reality, the 13D group was absolutely correct - their main point was that Nader would destroy the value for shareholders. Well, the stock is down 80-90% since that time - they called it perfectly.
Meanwhile, the Investors Hangout board (aka "Pumper Central") has attacked anyone questioning anything related to their perma-bull view of the company over the years. Rather than having a balanced view, they've had a one-sided narrative - and for investors, following this view has been Far more damaging than any short-seller or basher.
At this point, I like Dr Jay - and am pulling for him as it would be great to see the company turn around, the drug to get out there, etc. But from an investment standpoint, i think it's either many years away (until they get deep into clinial trials), or the company will run out of cash - which could happen if the equity markets enter a bear market. And the choice between dead money and zero money isn't a good one from my perspective.
hopefully we hear something from the FDA in the next 2 weeks.
one thing is for sure - we'll learn where we sit in the bigger picture once the hold is lifted. If the stock remains under .50, then it will be years before we see anything approaching $1. My point is that pre-revenue biotechs have entered something resembling a new ice age - with lenders and investors becoming much more discerning. For CytoDyn, having the hold lifted opens us up to all positives (except generating revenue) - so, if that's not enough to get us significantly higher, then it tells you that the market has become the "where's the beef" lady. Only she's now saying "where's the revenue". Given we haven't even started a real trial, we won't see $1 until 2027 or 2028.
Some will say i'm missing the positives - that this drug cures everything from cancer, to diabetes to old age itself. My response is - why has there not been a single large trial that has proven efficacy in ANY indication? Even Lalezari himself said it ultimately didn't work even a fit for HIV monotherapy - because it would lapse at times, and patients' viral load would spike back up to where they could infect someone else. Not good. And to be clear, this is the only trial with a material number of people that the company has ever conducted.
i am selling down my position month over month with a goal of being totally out by year end - and will only hold the warrants i received doing 3 different direct deals. for me, this stock has become a call option. It has a decent chance of doing well in a few years if it can start a trial and generate some revenue - but, if we hit a really bad market and they cannot continue to raise funds, it's game over.
There will be no reverse stock split - that makes zero sense. The company just raised over $6MM - which was led by company insiders. Doesn't get more bullish than the people who know the most putting their hard-earned money into the company. This is enough funding to get the company to the 60% read-out later this year. If the results match the 30% read-out, the company gets bought most likely - but the stock will be much higher by then.
Remember - Boston Scientifc is a major investor - if you want "smart money" in the device space, that's it. The only reason the stock has been down is because of Silicon Valley Bank collapse, which hit all biotechs and gave people pause that RNXT couldn't raise enough money to get to the 60% read-out - well, they just did.
It's just a matter of time - the technology works incredibly well, the 30% read-out was exceptional (6 month survival benefit over SOC with 65% less side effects vs SOC), and the way statistics work - the 60% read-out will be even better. I would bet the company is bought for $20 or more per share before year-end.
The outlook for CytoDyn investors continues to sit somewhere between the most negative and the pie-in-the-sky. neither is grounded in reality.
I do believe we could see a recovery to $1 to $2 per share, sometime in the next 2 years. This will be based on producing tangible data in the new HIV study. While this is a much smaller market, the promise of even a small amount of revenue should provide some support to the SP. But it won't happen in the next 6 months at the earliest, and i believe we're looking at 2025 until we see the $1-$2 that i think is possible. We now have a much bigger overhang in terms of outstanding shares, and we're not close to done in terms of raising capital - so that will be a drag on the SP.
Also, for those who reference $10 in 2021 as where we should be - remember, the mania that drove the SP to $10 in 2020 / 2021 won't come back for a long, long time - it was a true bubble, and like the tech bubble, you didn't see the animal spirits return for 20 years. Biotech will continue to be dogged by higher rates, and investors are much more skeptical now - in other words, that party is over, and the hangover will last for years.
Further, it's clear that we have no viable data in cancer or NASH. Lalezari didn't even mention those indications on the last call - what does that suggest? exactly......but some would have you believe there are partnerships in the wings for those indications - which is a complete joke. If (and it's a big if) we pursue cancer or NASH, we will have to start from scratch with brand new trials, and it will be many years before we produce data that could attract interest from a potential buyer. Of course, there could be a partnership - and that could occur in a couple years i suppose.
So, I do think we see a higher SP in 2024 and 2025 - potentially as high as $2. And for me - that would be a great outcome from where we sit now. But - it comes with substantial risk. The chances of the company running out of money are not insignificant - they are running on fumes right now, and with the SP back down at .20, the options aren't good for raising funds.
So, that's how I see it. For those with a very high risk tolerance and patience, we could have a 5-10X from here over the next 2-3 years. But it isn't for the faint of heart.
for longs in this stock, the hiring of Jacob Lalezari as CEO (even if only interim) is unambiguously positive. There are no two ways about it.
To be clear, this wasn't their plan A - clearly they had tried to hire a permanent CEO and it fell through for some reason. JL has been a "friend of CytoDyn" for many years - so someone reached out, and he agreed to the role - for very little money as I understand. He clearly didn't have to do this - my gut is that he is a big believer in our drug, and wants to see it succeed. In addition to his understanding and passion for the drug, he is the most experienced, well spoken, and well respected leader we have ever had. No disrespect to Cyrus, but he was too green to command any respect with the FDA, other companies, etc. - , and he was clearly pushed around by the FDA to the point where he had some type of health breakdown.
The way I see it - Lalezari will basically shepherd this company through whatever remains with the clinical hold, and will stay on board until we find a permanent CEO (and will likely help vet that person).
I have publicly stated my concerns for this company over the past year or so - based solely on the lack of leadership - and to be clear, we have been a "rudderless ship" ever since Cyrus went down. That is no longer the case. And while i'm not ready to make the "all clear" signal, this could be a pivotal moment for the company. Remember - we don't have to get everything perfect and become the next Humira - we just need some positive momentum in any one of the several indications in which this drug has shown promise - and the value will be a very, very large multiple of the sub-200MM market cap at which we now sit. That is what Jay Lalezari will explain to shareholders (and how he will continue to raise capital).
time will tell. hope everyone has a nice Thanksgiving.
there really is no excuse for the total lack of communication. some have cited worries about running afoul of the FDA. that's complete nonsense, as i'm invested in several biotechs. This one is by far the worst i have ever seen in terms of communication.
one thing is for sure. an absolute lack of any communication by a company is never a harbinger of good things. Over the years, I've had 2 investments go to zero - and in both cases, they went dead silent for several months before finally breaking the news. I get it, no one wants to communicate bad news until they have to. contrast that to the investments that did well - and they always communicated with good regularity.
at the end of the day, they need to pull a rabbit out of a hat at this point. because they have very little cash, the inability to raise funds at these levels, the inability to run trials (isn't that the only thing a pre-revenue biotech has to do?), and no leadership whatsoever (again, which drives the lack of communication).
honestly, i'd love to have something positive to go on - but the facts are what they are. and if the company refuses to offer anything positive / or to address the current situation which looks quite dire - then how can i ignore the facts right in front of my face?
Grip, it's an interesting list - and it's good to keep a list of tangible milestones to keep track of - that's all that really counts at this point. At some point, they have to execute on something to create forward movement. My 2 cents is that #1 and #3 (hold lifted and partnership) have very little chance of happening before Nov 10. and under the current state of affairs, #4 won't happen either (SP over .30).
The wildcard is naming a new CEO. The company has no leadership right now - so i think they have to be searching hard. That's the one i think has the best chance of happening before Nov 10 - although whether they will be permanent or not, is anyone's guess.
To be clear - i'm not taking the bet - very possible we're another month in with none of those met. One item to add to the list is whether or not we'll get any type of communication at all from the company by Nov 10 (even the mandatory quarterly call). The last i checked we were still shareholders - and i thought we deserved some type of communication from management. as a "long suffering long", i find it unacceptable to be kept in the dark for so long like this.
6 months since we've heard from a leader at CytoDyn - 6 months......wow. That's the last time Cyrus spoke. The call with Antonio and Tanya (which was just brutal) clarified that neither is a leader, and nothing is going on - heck, they wouldn't even take questions - what does that tell you?
To me, this is like the Twilight Zone - only worse. We have a company with effectively no money, no revenue on the horizon, a hold on any trials, and there is no one steering the ship - and it's been that way for months.
I would write a letter to someone to complain - but who would that be? This isn't even Tanya's day job - and Antonio is a bean counter. They are both drawing money from this company, which is coming out of shareholder's pockets. That would be us.
Believe it or not - i'm still long this stock. Just beyond frustrated. At this point, i'm hoping they bring in someone to simply sell the IP and everything for .50 or .75 - i'd vote all of my shares for that deal. The alternative is they run out of money and it's a zero. sadly, that seems increasingly likely as time draws on - because the next cash raise to keep the lights on would have to be at 10 or 15 cents to incentivize a new investor at this point. the dilution is starting to make our share certificates devalue faster than the Zimbabwean dollar.....
very frustrating that we have not named a new CEO in several months now since Cyrus took leave. it has to be their top priority - so i am wondering why it is taking so long. It could be that it is just a really tough sell - given where the company sits right now (clinical hold, financial position, recent legal troubles, etc.) - which i totally understand. it would give anyone pause to hitch their wagon to this company right now.
the flip side is that from these levels, if a new CEO can make any progress whatsoever, they would be a hero and make a really nice return.
for me, i still don't know how this all will shake out. If we get someone who is credible (who has done proper diligence and knows all of the good, bad and ugly - and believes there is a path forward), that says a lot about the prospects going forward. but unlike the Rolling Stones, Time is definitely NOT on CytoDyn's side. We need to name a CEO, like yesterday.
thanks Grip. you're right - it's still hard to believe (and sad) how much damage Nader did to this company. i think the new guy (Cyrus) under-estimated how much the well had been poisoned with the FDA- and it literally cost him his health. i feel for the poor guy - as a long-term investor, i could've bought him a beer and warned him what he was getting himself into.
it will be telling what happens now - will we be able to attract a decent CEO? it can't be an easy sell at this point to get someone to hitch their wagon to a company under clinical hold, and with limited funds. but that will guide my decision. if we get someone who is somewhat impressive and with a good plan on how to get on track, i'll continue to stick it out. if we get someone from the bush leagues, i may just mail it in and write this one off.
good luck to you also.
no, i have not kept up with them. I thought Saltz was excellent - among the best over time on this board (or any of the boards). He was spot on about Nader - and when he sold out, i wish out had paid closer attention. the simple reality is - no matter the quality of your product, you must have good leadership - and that's been the death knell for us to this point - and why we sit at all time lows.
we'll see what happens in terms of a new CEO.
i haven't been on the boards for awhile, but have been invested for a long time. if you read this board, we're going bankrupt tomorrow - and if you read investors hangout, we're about to be purchased for $50. Both extreme views are equally damaging (and idiotic) - frankly, this board (although it's negative biased likely due to short-selling motivation) has been a much more reliable indicator, with the stock down 90% over the past few years.
but i believe the answer is somewhere in between. the risk of this company running out of money and having to firesale the molecule is not insignificant at this point. we all know there is very little cash left, no one knows when we may get payment from Amarex - and if we can survive until then. we also have no CEO, and Cyrus is toast. So we are a rudderless ship, with no money and a clinical hold hanging over our heads. Not great.
i think we probably do survive, but the upside scenario from a couple years ago is much more muted. we owe a ton of money to Samsung and other lenders, which will likely eat up most of the Amarex settlement - and we are years away from results that would drive real value here. plus, we have continued to issue shares at lower and lower prices - diluting the value of existing shares.
for me, i hope they bring in a new team that arranges some type of sale - anything North of $1 or $2 will get the vote of all of my shares. as for the odds of making it through the current period, it's hard to say - a little better than 50/50 maybe. i'm holding my shares as i believe it's too late to sell - but i'll start taking chips off as we rise about .50.
Grip, we differ on that point. Not sure if you have, but you should carefully listen to the public calls where Cyrus lays out his plan. This is not “Nader-land” anymore. Best of luck to you.
Misiu
It is possible they ask for more time, but I don’t expect it. What I have come to understand, is that all of our problems in the past came down to people – – Nader was one of the worst CEOs I have seen - and the FDA, which is simply made up of people, responded to his missed deadlines, incomplete submissions,
and repeated bungles. All of our wounds were self-inflicted and not the FDA, BP, 13D, etc. – – but that day has passed.
Cyrus is the real deal – – he is a responsible, and very meticulous individual – – exactly the type of person that the people at the FDA will respond to positively. For that reason, I expect the whole to be lifted soon, and I do not expect the FDA to kick the can down the road.
There are a few things that will happen in 2023:
1. The hold will be lifted likely in the next one to two weeks. All of the data was submitted to the FDA more than three weeks ago and they have 30 days to respond. From what I know about Cyrus, it was done thoroughly and completely.
2. Once the hold is lifted, we will attract a partner to fund our trials in oncology.
3. The company will re-brand with a new name which makes perfect sense. The old leadership that nearly ran this company into the ground is completely gone and this is a totally new team, focused on different indications, etc. – – effectively a new company with the same extremely promising drug.
4. We will, indeed receive a significant amount of money from Amarex this year – – the case against them is very clear cut.
5. A large NASH trial will be initiated and we will make progress toward enrollment. We will be one of several companies that make a ton of money in this massive market.
I have been invested for seven years and became extremely negative and disillusioned during the last year of Nader’s leadership. I voiced those concerns publicly, but finally decided to simply keep my mouth shut, as I am generally a positive person.
But we are in a completely different ballgame now. Cyrus is all business / no BS - the real deal. I know this from direct experience.
No, I won’t respond to any of the troll comments that I’m sure I will get from this post – – because I know a lot more about what is going on behind the scenes than any of them do, and they are likely employed by short-sellers anyway. but to be very clear, we are close to a value inflection point here as we finally have world class leadership paired with a world class drug.
Good luck longs. 2023 is (finally) our year.
that call was pitiful. the most boilerplate, BS call i have ever heard. I've been looking forward to an update on the clinical hold, the BLA update, and maybe even some hints on partnerships. what did we get? zero specifics on anything.
we are a long ways off from anything - 6 months to a year or more at minimum for a single dollar in revenue. over that time we'll be diluted to death to keep things going.
i would vote for a $2 buyout right now. just give me the chance.
it's a great question - probably the main question for those who truly believe in the molecule.
What i believe - is that we have had offers to partner or maybe to be bought - but there is a huge gulf between the offer price, and what we would command with an approval or being on the doorstep of an approval. the recent "hair" on the company with NP, and getting in hot water with the FDA has hurt a lot - in other words, no BP wants to jump in bed with someone on the wrong side of the FDA.
So, i think it's a function of getting this hold lifted, cleaning up the rift with the FDA, and restoring credibility. i believe at that point we get a partnership. that's my preference - because i think if we get that runway, we will get a bigger buyout price down the road.
I'm a 6-year long myself. I still believe in the molecule - but i wouldn't wish being a long-term holder of this stock on my worst enemy. Good luck to us all.
the sustained strength - day after day - it's beautiful, and relentless.
if you look at the longer-term charts, you get the sense that this run is just starting. sitting back with my popcorn (with every share i ever bought - won't sell a single one until $5 or higher). may even start buying again given the strength in the move.
the delay means nothing. Pfizer has 50 people who work on their 10-K. We have 1. and non-cash comp, etc., is complicated and takes time.
That's it. To spin it any other way, is silly.
Great WSJ article talking about big pharma badly needing to invest in new drugs as their organic revenues decline. They will rely on buying new drugs as the solution.
We are in the proverbial catbird seat here. World class drug, All of the past mistakes addressed and cleaned up, and a new president that happens to have dealmaking experience.
BP only wants a great drug so they can make Billions. That’s it. Our history, past mistakes, etc doesn’t mean anything to them.
Damn this starting to be fun!!
NP mis-managed the company badly, but this is a fundamentally different company now. Methodical, sober and going quietly about their business, adding more and more impressive members to the advisory team, etc. And Cyrus seems very impressive. Credibility is being restored and it’s becoming clear that the last overhangs (clinical hold and BLA) will be removed soon. At that point revenue becomes imminent and this stock will soar.
I don’t buy into the GSK rumors and don’t think we’re in partnership discussions (yet). But one of those will come when we have the hold lifted. Until then, I will sit back and enjoy the show. It will be a bloodbath for those trying to short - their gravy days are over :)
the gravy days for those shorting the stock may officially be over.
the new president is legit - solid background, connections, and seems to be all business, no BS. the new sober approach of this team is all about execution, with guys like Chris Recknor getting it done behind the scenes. and the board of advisors, including Otto Yang, Lalezari, etc. are rockstars. They don't hitch their wagon to a suspect company.
once the hold is lifted, and we have clarity into the BLA submission, we could be back to $2 easily. Of course a partnership puts us well above that level - overnight.
the longs own an immensely valuable asset. a drug that crushed the PE in HIV, and looks to be rock-solid in NASH, and potentially in oncology. Big Pharma is dying for new compounds to re-stock their pipelines. Once we get the hold lifted, as i said, this thing is set to skyrocket.
oh boy - nice move....on good volume.
one thing i was thinking about - if they announce a new president / CEO, and the guy has a good background, this SP will go through the roof. Because, if the person has a strong pedigree and background in business and biotech, he knows a lot more than any of us - and is staking his name and reputation on this company. Put another way, there is absolutely zero chance whatsoever that someone with a strong background and reputation joins a company that is about to go under.
Who knows, maybe they won't find anyone - and that will be telling, in a negative way. but if they do....
Will be an interesting next week or so - historically the moves up in this company have been beyond violent (in a good way). We'll see.
With NP back and credibility restored it is just a matter of time to a partnership and a valuation in the billions. Remember, there are many drugs worth billions with only a single indication and not great safety data.
With NP gone and NASH data coming, the stars are aligning for a big and sustained move up. It’ll be a great Summer.