Cytodyn Inc (CYDY)

[Blueheel1]

i haven't been on the boards for awhile, but have been invested for a long time. if you read this board, we're going bankrupt tomorrow - and if you read investors hangout, we're about to be purchased for $50. Both extreme views are equally damaging (and idiotic) - frankly, this board (although it's negative biased likely due to short-selling motivation) has been a much more reliable indicator, with the stock down 90% over the past few years.

but i believe the answer is somewhere in between. the risk of this company running out of money and having to firesale the molecule is not insignificant at this point. we all know there is very little cash left, no one knows when we may get payment from Amarex - and if we can survive until then. we also have no CEO, and Cyrus is toast. So we are a rudderless ship, with no money and a clinical hold hanging over our heads. Not great.

i think we probably do survive, but the upside scenario from a couple years ago is much more muted. we owe a ton of money to Samsung and other lenders, which will likely eat up most of the Amarex settlement - and we are years away from results that would drive real value here. plus, we have continued to issue shares at lower and lower prices - diluting the value of existing shares.

for me, i hope they bring in a new team that arranges some type of sale - anything North of $1 or $2 will get the vote of all of my shares. as for the odds of making it through the current period, it's hard to say - a little better than 50/50 maybe. i'm holding my shares as i believe it's too late to sell - but i'll start taking chips off as we rise about .50.