The outlook for CytoDyn investors continues to sit somewhere between the most negative and the pie-in-the-sky. neither is grounded in reality.
I do believe we could see a recovery to $1 to $2 per share, sometime in the next 2 years. This will be based on producing tangible data in the new HIV study. While this is a much smaller market, the promise of even a small amount of revenue should provide some support to the SP. But it won't happen in the next 6 months at the earliest, and i believe we're looking at 2025 until we see the $1-$2 that i think is possible. We now have a much bigger overhang in terms of outstanding shares, and we're not close to done in terms of raising capital - so that will be a drag on the SP.
Also, for those who reference $10 in 2021 as where we should be - remember, the mania that drove the SP to $10 in 2020 / 2021 won't come back for a long, long time - it was a true bubble, and like the tech bubble, you didn't see the animal spirits return for 20 years. Biotech will continue to be dogged by higher rates, and investors are much more skeptical now - in other words, that party is over, and the hangover will last for years.
Further, it's clear that we have no viable data in cancer or NASH. Lalezari didn't even mention those indications on the last call - what does that suggest? exactly......but some would have you believe there are partnerships in the wings for those indications - which is a complete joke. If (and it's a big if) we pursue cancer or NASH, we will have to start from scratch with brand new trials, and it will be many years before we produce data that could attract interest from a potential buyer. Of course, there could be a partnership - and that could occur in a couple years i suppose.
So, I do think we see a higher SP in 2024 and 2025 - potentially as high as $2. And for me - that would be a great outcome from where we sit now. But - it comes with substantial risk. The chances of the company running out of money are not insignificant - they are running on fumes right now, and with the SP back down at .20, the options aren't good for raising funds.
So, that's how I see it. For those with a very high risk tolerance and patience, we could have a 5-10X from here over the next 2-3 years. But it isn't for the faint of heart.
