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Wade made the trade at 10:23am .... he posts in real time only on his own board .... his purchase price of $8.45 was accurate and excellent timing.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175114119
KINS +.21 to 9.20, getting a nice bounce off the morning low of $8.36 .... I added shares at $8.62 avg and sold Jan $10 calls at $0.84 avg for a cost basis of $7.78. That's a solid 28% gain if the shares get called from me in January.
DAN -.88 to 9.59 after Wells Fargo downgrades to underweight with a $9 price target -
fly -
Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan downgraded Dana to Underweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $9, down from $13. The firm cites commercial and off-highway market headwinds, tough Super Duty compares, and high recession risk for the downgrade. The analyst remains "skeptical" of Dana's 2024 guidance and sees risk to 2025 sales estimates given expected double-digit declines in North America heavy truck and Super Duty. Dana also screens poorly in a recession with low free cash flow generation, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
True, the insurance sector was weak today. We had sector rotation to "risk-on" stocks in a lower interest rate economy. The tech sector had an excellent day.
A lot of stocks are starting to look overvalued. Maybe the election will be the catalyst for a major correction ? If Harris wins, higher corporate tax rates will be on her agenda and PEs will potentially look even higher. Those market pullbacks in August and early September were rather modest. A bigger correction could be lurking once this rally inevitably comes to an end.
S&P500 +109 to 5723, another new all time record high ! This market feels a bit frothy, but this aggressive Fed rate cut might keep it trending higher for a bit longer.
DAN (10.16) is an auto parts manufacturer, basically a boring cyclical business. Analysts are forecasting 3% revenue growth for 2025, hardly exciting. Those estimates for a 55% increase in EPS to around $1.55 are premised on much higher gross margins. It's highly unlikely that will happen. A year ago analysts were estimating EPS of $1.53 for 2024. Their estimates trended steadily lower and now they're estimating just $0.99. I think the same thing will happen to 2025 estimates.
On a positive note the stock is now down about 30% y/y, so there's pessimism priced into the valuation. It's also near a 5 year low, excluding the pandemic crash .... I think a $12 price target is realistic for a bounce at some point in the coming 6 to 12 months.
Easy come, easy go .... the Russell surged nearly 3% higher in the 45 minutes after the Fed announcement, but then gave it all back by 4pm to close flat on the day, lol.
Russell surges nearly 2% higher after the Fed cuts rates by 0.5% - many investors were expecting just a 0.25% cut.
briefing -
FOMC votes 11-1 to lower the target range for the fed funds rate by 50 basis points to 4.75-5.00%; Fed Governor Bowman dissented in favor of a 25 basis points rate cut
REI -.04 to 1.73, I sold my entire position today. The stock is surprisingly still up 18% YTD despite the sharp drop in crude oil prices .... very low PE, but with oil at $69/bbl they'll have very diminished free cash flows once their hedges expire. Who know where oil prices are heading ?
I'm still hanging on to VTLE which is down 35% YTD, but may sell in December for tax loss purposes.
IPW - I bought at $1.376 at 12:02pm, then sold at $1.595 just 25 minutes later for a super quick 16% gain !
I'm back on the bid in the $1.30's and $1.20's ..... hoping for another dip.
Thanks for the price alerts.
IPW - amazing volatility - I joined you with a few shares at $1.38 for a trade ....
IPW +.07 to 1.80, but that's down from $2.06 at 10:30am ..... wish I had loaded up in the low $1's just over a week ago, but unfortunately it was off my radar .... it will be interesting to see the Jun Q4 earnings after the bell tomorrow and how the stock reacts, but I'm staying on the sidelines.
TSLA (228) overtaken by BMW in August European sales ....
https://electrek.co/2024/08/22/bmw-tops-tesla-ev-sales-first-time-gap-narrows-eu/
Domestic market share falls below 50% -
https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q2-2024-ev-sales/
IART -.20 to 17.12, has fallen $28 from the 52wk high of $45 just 7 months ago. Surely it can drop another $2 or $3 this year, especially under tax loss selling pressure. So I won't be surprised if it hits $14, especially if we get another market correction. The long term risk/reward looks good for those with patience like myself. Not so sure about you. Will you even have the conviction to hold this serial disappointer through Q3 earnings ???
VTLE +1.49 to 29.40, nice rally the past few days thanks to a bounce in crude oil prices which hit a low of $65 last Tuesday and now back to $71. Even so, VTLE is a big loser for me. I bought a lot of shares in the high $30's thinking that oil would level off at around $80/bbl. I'll probably be selling VTLE in December for tax loss purposes.
UHG net income was due to a large gain from a reduced derivatives liability related to the drop in the stock price. Operating income was a loss both for Q1 and Q2. Other larger homebuilders are much more attractive. My largest homebuilder position is in MHO.
MHO, TOL, BZH
Schwab - I'm seeing the same thing ..... I have plenty of GTC orders that are over 30 days old .... I can see them on ThinkorSwim, but not on the website. It's very easy to display and sort them on TOS, so not a problem for me. The TOS display is far superior from my perspective in that it displays 33 orders per page, whereas the website displays just 6 orders per page ! I typically have 50+ GTC open orders, since I like to scale in an out of positions gradually. So the Schwab website is awful in that respect and many others. Ugh, if I use the website I have to cancel orders one at a time and have to confirm each one (yes I really do want to cancel this order, ha). Very inefficient. At Ameritrade I could cancel 10 or more orders in one swoop by clicking a box by each order and then cancelling them all. MUCH faster.
Wade - I just took a real quick look, but it appears that in relation to operating cash flow, IART has a lot more debt than SKY .... so in theory, SKY could pay off its debt much faster. Also, IART is a serial earnings disappointer .... right now the market wants to see them NOT disappoint for a change before giving it a higher valuation.
GERN - 3 years is an eternity for investors. I'm very skeptical that doctors will choose Geron's drug, a relatively unknown company, versus the reputable Bristol Myers drug. We'll have to wait 3 years to find out. I sure as heck wouldn't let my money sit for 3 years hoping the story plays out well. In the meanwhile no other company is interested in buying them out since the FDA approval. That's also a red flag. They have loads of experts to evaluate what the company is really worth.
If you're really confident that GERN will be worth $15 in 3 years, then take some cash out of the bank, buy GERN and leave it there !
GERN -.06 to 4.45 has been a good trader for the past 3 months .... repeated 5 to 10% gains by buying at around 4.30, selling at around 4.60.
As for the valuation, it's still a "show me" story. It's a long path to commercialization and profitability. Analyst estimates predict more losses next year followed by EPS of just $0.15 in 2026. Ouch, that's a very long wait for meager profits. So it's trading at 30x FY26 estimates. Hardly cheap and analysts tend to be too optimistic.
Why are you completely out of GERN ? I thought that was your favorite stock with a likely buyout at $10 ?
RMAX +2.04 to 13.05, surging higher as mortgage rates fall to 19 month lows which should stimulate home sales.
Homebuilders are also having a banner day, generally up 3% to 6%.
I trimmed some shares in RMAX today.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rates-fall-to-lowest-level-since-february-2023-ahead-of-fed-rate-decision-162634766.html
MHO, TOL, XHB
ADFJF - last year they reported Oct Q3 on 12/7, so plenty of time for them to report orders that come in after the election. But if they report a sharply lower backlog with no subsequent orders, the stock could plunge. I'm willing to risk it since my position is fairly small at just over 1% of my portfolio. I have lots of small positions, arguably far too many, but I enjoy it that way.
ADFJF +.72 to 8.50, the drop in backlog from $511M on 1/31/24 to $402M on 7/31 is significant. However they periodically announce very large orders. On 10/31/23 backlog stood at $339M but then in December they announced $234M in new orders causing backlog to surge higher. Hopefully we'll get some more big order announcements in the coming months.
ADFJF +.55 to 8.33, my average buy price yesterday was $8.03 and I'm planning to hold on for higher prices, but maybe it becomes a tax loss sale at year end instead.
Lots of green on my screen today !
GTEC +.21 to 2.84, now a double from the August lows .... I trimmed some more shares this morning ....
ADFJF -1.87 to 7.83, I just got a fill at 7.90 and have lower GTC bids placed .... might be a mistake but I will be accumulating. Then after the Oct Q3 results get released in mid December, I might be selling my higher priced shares for tax loss purpose, but hopefully it won't come to that ....
ADFJF -1.69 to 8.01, this selloff seems a bit harsh. Just 3 months ago the stock was near $15. Yeah, a mildly disappointing quarter, but still solid profits of US $0.38 per share. I added a few in the low $8's and placed GTC bids in the $7's. How much downside can there be from this price level unless backlog is going into steady decline ?
The Russell is down 7% since your timely sell decision in mid July, but your stocks have held up remarkably well, up 2% on average, beating the Russell by a hefty 9%, thanks to a few impressive gainers -
PRICE CHANGE FROM CLOSING PRICE ON 20240716
TKR % Change Cur Price Start Price
MD 38% 10.54 7.62
BMY 20% 49.28 41.2
T 15% 21.71 18.85
FISI 12% 25.34 22.55
NOMD 6% 19.06 18
VZ 5% 43.65 41.45
OI 3% 12.04 11.7
SJM 1% 118.97 117.5
VTRS -2% 11.17 11.38
ASO -3% 55.38 57.02
CNXC -4% 69.09 72.26
WU -6% 11.9 12.6
NOA -10% 17.89 19.92
IART -44% 17.72 31.74
AVERAGE RETURN = 2%
Where are you planning to transfer your account to ? Have you tried other streamers that you like better than ToS ? Or are you just kidding ?
I much preferred TDA's website to Schwab's. Lots of nice trader friendly features were lost, but Fidelity, Etrade and IB are no better than Schwab, so I've come to accept what for me was a significant downgrade.
Good to see that you're finding stocks to buy !
Is DIN (28.95) on your watchlist for potential purchase at these firesale prices ?
KEQU -4.82 to 39.71, there must be an earnings leak to account for this weakness .... we'll find out soon enough. Hopefully the earnings won't prove to justify this sudden alarming selloff.
WBA - we'll get more clarity on 10/15. Maybe it really is oversold now at around $9 ? Or maybe the fat lady is singing ? I'm going to wait until after the earnings before considering buying a small position which I'd probably hedge with covered calls.
WBA +.14 to 8.91, this downtrend has been relentless .... they did recently maintain the $0.25 quarterly dividend, but who knows for how much longer ? The 11.2% yield is in itself a red flag and short interest of 71M is an all time record high. They report Aug Q4 on Oct 15th .... it should be interesting.
btw, option premiums are very high so you could write covered calls, The Jan $10's fetch a hefty $0.94. You could double down, write the calls and have a cost basis of around $9.30 when considering the dividend. Then roll them over at expiration.
I remain on the sidelines.
Here's a cautious article -
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4719605-walgreens-short-interest-surge-indicates-time-to-cut-losses
DIN -1.90 to 28.85 after being removed from the S&P600 due to insufficient market cap. This selloff is due to index funds getting out and seems overdone. There's no change in the fundamentals and they just declared a $0.51 quarterly dividend. Yield is now 7.0%. FY24 PE is a mere 4.9 based on analyst estimates for EPS of $5.84.
I added a few shares today.
DBI +.13 to 6.12 ahead of Jul Q2 earnings due out Wednesday morning ..... the stock is way down from its 52wk high of $13+ and may finally have bottomed. Last quarter they maintained FY25 annual guidance for adj EPS of $0.70 to $0.80. Analysts are expecting a sharp rebound in earnings to $1+ in FY26, although that's still way below the $1.85 they earned in FY23.
Designer Brands is one of the world's largest designers, producers, and retailers of the most well known footwear brands.
IART - I got a fill at 18.55 today and have lower GTC bids waiting .... still a small position though. This market looks like it could be heading lower in the coming weeks ..... lots of red on my screen today, the only notable bright spot being the homebuilders evidently up on prospects for lower mortgage rates.
I'll be interested to see when SSK starts investing his 80% cash horde ......
September off to a bad start .... Russell down about 5% so far this month, S&P down 3.5%. AI related stocks have been hit especially hard. NVDA is down about 14%.