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EDIT: Pundits and macro analysis are often distractions and crystal ball ramblings. Got to believe (and act on) the charts!!!
Speaking of which, I just scanned through mine and noticed gravestone doji's forming on several as we approach EOD. A change in momentum coming? We will see what tomorrow brings.
I applaud your success today. Being the day after the first rate cut, today could have gone either way. You placed a bet and bet correctly. I chose to wait and ended up chasing one this morning. Did you also ride GUSH starting on Aug12 or 13th? My reading of your chart indicates to me a similar alignment of your signals. Yes?
Edit: I bailed out of SPXL before EOD to capture a gain. Even though the chart shows a inverse head and shoulders that suggests it goes higher, I didn't like the Doji forming. GLTY
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPXL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=1&id=p21587060324
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=1&id=p95039734664
I hadn't thought of that, but YES!
Oil consumption is dropping worldwide due to lower consumer demand. Worldwide oil producers have tanker ships in route to locations that don't have capacity to receive it. This article describes how oil prices are going to go negative again!!!
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/traders-are-most-bearish-oil-record-bears-conclude-opec-has-run-out-options
Towards the end is a summary of NatGas that suggests the bottom is now., and upturn expected this winter. GLTY
On an unrelated computer/PC topic, I have been hacked twice in the past 10 days.
First, I received an alert from Norton/Lifelock that a Payday loan had been taken out in my name. I contacted Lifelock the same day and disputed it. They are taking actions on my behalf from here.
Second, my rarely used TradingView account was accessed by someone in Finland. They used my credit card info (stored with TradingView!!!) to upgrade my account from a lower level, to an expensive full featured account, change the language to Russian, then started loading an over helming amount of crypto alt coin charts with alerts. I was suddenly seeing chart alerts every few minutes.
My fault. I was not using the two step log in verification option readily available. Like I said, I rarely use this account.
I had never connected TradingView with any brokerage account, so no concern someone would gain access to brokerage/banking information, but they could have tried.
I canceled my credit card, and closed the TradingView account.
Were not in Kansas anymore Toto...
For me, I find it preferable to keep a rather simple laptop to use for trading, banking, and email, and a separate more powerful PC (desktop or laptop) for gaming.
From time to time, I have found it useful to have two separate PC's in my home office too. Just a thought for you.
Might want to consider changing out your C drive for a 1T ssd (or 2T!) before you move from W10 to W11.
I believe the rule of thumb is to keep your boot drive less than half full.
https://www.donemax.com/copy-disk/change-primary-hard-drive.html
Tomorrow 1:00 Eastern, the "You are here" marker moves. GLTY.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-exactly-investors-buy-stocks-033914143.html
I upgraded from 10 to 11 approx 12 months ago. It was basically a non event for me. No issues.
EDITED, video added ;)
Are you still wheelin', or back home now?
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/tS5S1xOS3ZE
I agree with your assessment of the current state of AI.
When the internet was first becoming main stream, and being embraced by the masses, many issues appeared that prevented its scalability and wide spread adoption. Useability, scalability, capability, speed, security, integration, and others appeared and were solved over time. Cisco was the main player in the beginning, then its technology was eclipsed by other innovators that were able to identify and solve scalability issues.
I view AI not as an event, but as a wave of technology that is in its infancy, and has a long way to evolve not unlike the internet experience we all had.
Similar to Cisco, I believe Nvidia will peak, fall, and eventually make way for others to follow in its path.
I am thinking we are near the end of the innovators phase, and entering the adaptors phase.
https://whatfix.com/blog/technology-adoption-curve/
https://setandbma.wordpress.com/2012/05/28/technology-adoption-shift/
Yup, Uncle Warren, his insurance company guru Ajit Jain, also Michael Dell, Jenson Huang, and all the executives at Microsoft too. Dumping hugely, and for a while now. The folks at Nvidia take the cake though, announcing a stock buy-back program. If the retail public wont buy the insiders stock sales fast enough, just have the company do it!!! Tick tock...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/12/ajit-jain-dumps-more-than-half-of-his-berkshire-hathaway-stake.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/28/nvidia-announces-50-billion-stock-buyback.html
Here's one more thing to ponder this weekend.
This is something I am watching closely.
"
At the height of the dotcom bubble, Cisco was worth 5.5% of US GDP.
— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) July 15, 2024
Today $NVDA market cap is worth 11.7% of GDP, over 200% higher... https://t.co/l4NefeNtc2 pic.twitter.com/1ORJRGjB4l
I saw a similar signal on my 60min chart this afternoon too. Chose not to act. Going to wait to see the daily move. GLTY
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=OILU&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=1&id=p95467285747
Good catch. I have been watching NatGas and Crude for gulf hurricane effects this week. You just gave me more reason to be watching crude oil closely. Thx
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=OILU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=1&id=p51246157226
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=OILU&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=1&id=p95467285747
This might cause NatGas and Oil to get interesting...
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/goldmans-take-energy-markets-ahead-rocket-fuel-gulf-propelling-francine-towards
I use both, but I like SC links embedded into PowerPoint.
Why do you ask?
Thx for the Eurodollar University link. I like that guy.
Beautiful part of the country. Wheeling on your own or as part of an organized event?
You may have responded to a year old post, but I agree with what you said. The charts will show which one is the better swing. Safe travels! GLTY
Hummmmm....
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1tiFv
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1tiBw
https://archive.is/eF5vD
Here is another vote for the same...
Lookie what happened yesterday...
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1tiFv
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1tiBw
Another reason me thinks we get a brief melt up in front of the rate cut mid September. GLTY
This was all prompted by Duma. His analysis comparing the performance of FNGU to the individual Mag 7 stocks was an eye opener for me.
FYI, here are the 14 I am tracking -
APPU, MSFU, NVDX, GGLL, METU, AMXN, TSLT
The above are all 2x single stock ETF's
APPD, MSFD, NVDQ, GGLS, METD, AMZD, TSLZ
NVDQ and TSLZ are 2x inverse single stock ETF's. All others are 1x.
GLTY
Based on your analysis you shared a week or so back, I started tracking the 7 individual Mag7 stocks. I'm using the individual stock ETF's on all 7 actually for a bit of leverage. 14 charts in all counting the 7 inverse single stock ETF's.
I am currently watching/waiting for an entry into NVDQ to present itself (chart below). Blue bars on the 6mo daily chart below indicate current trend is stalling. Earnings reporting this week Wed after the closing should break the stall one way or the other...
I will try to toggle back and forth between NVDX and NVDQ as the chart signals allow. GLTY
Yes, lots of eyes will be watching for that one.
The J Powell dance last week was successful. Oil up, gold up, silver up, bitcoin up,... Now the final blow off until the first rate cut mid Sept?
The S&P chart is forming a double top. Like you, I am thinking when this chart rolls over, we go much lower. I will be watching for a test of the 200ma as support, bounce off of it, then break below it going lower still. I am just watching/waiting for the chart to tell me what to do. GLTY
In 9 days, it will be September.
The 1929 crash, the 1987 crash, and the 2008 crash all occurred in the months of September and October. Are we all ready for what's likely to happen soon?
https://x.com/GameofTrades_/
History tells us that the economy is nearing trouble
— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) August 22, 2024
More inversion days = deeper drawdowns
We’re already at +750 days
The last 3 lengthy inversions happened in: 1929, 1974, and 2008
All 3 ended in sharp market declines pic.twitter.com/rtrfcyyxHC
More on unemployment numbers, and tomorrows revision being leaked today (yesterday?).
Incompetence on a grand scale.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/wall-street-outraged-over-latest-epic-fk-bidens-labor-department
P&F chart tonight suggests bullish trend now underway and has a target of $67,500.
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PWTIDANCBO[PA!B9!E20,2][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&dt=202407161357
https://stockcharts.com/pnf/chart?c=%24BTCUSD,PWTIDANCBO[PA!B9!E20,2][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&r=1802&pnf=y
The P&F chart is showing a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The target of $67,500 would not break this pattern.
Consider riding SBIT when this run up tops and heads down to the next lower low. GLTY
I understand what you are doing with leveraged ETF's much better now. Thx again.
I learn much by just hanging around here. Thank you for sharing once again.
I am a soon to be retiring Mechanical Engineer. My first employer out of college in the early 80's offered a 401k plan. I had enough invested in the 401k that when the 1987 crash occurred, and I saw my account value cut in half, I thought their had to be a better way than buy and hold.
I have been learning and practicing swing trading ever since. GLTY