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Are you still waiting for your 350 point DROP, since May?
Your NEW Target is only 2,910?
And yet the Market will continue to move higher than your "so-called" target.
You keep calling for a "TOP", but the market keeps on rising.
Could it be that your E-Wave count is wrong?
You will be changing your Wave 5 Ending Diagonal count, very soon ...
WHY do you think the S&P 500 will break the UP-TREND line in August?
Russell 2K
Short R2K ?
Daily Price below 10 MA
Daily 3 MA below 5 MA
CCI(20) Trending Down
Stock(10,3) Trending Down
SHORT ?
S&P500 did not make to 2850 ...
Stopped at 2830.
Another pull-back, below 2800, before another attempt UP
S&P500 - UP to 2850 ...
Kiy,
DAILY SPX Chart "almost" a Short Signal ?
* 3 Day MA below 5 Day MA and
* CCI(20) trending DOWN and
* Stoch(10,3) trending DOWN
But ... Price is above 3 MA !
So ... wait?
DT
I was just going to post the same thing!
SHORT SPX when ...
3 Day SMA crosses below 5 Day SMA ....... Check !
AND CCI(20) crosses below +100 .............. Check !
AND Stoch(10,2) Fast crosses below Slow . Check !
Would be great if SPX goes down to ~2740, before reversing back UP.
Looks like a pullback, in an UP-TREND.
S&P 500 DOWN to 2770 today
Small, 10 point bounce UP on Tuesday
DOWN to 2750 on Wednesday
Then more UP ...
We are still in an UP-TREND
This is a change to the chart in the message that I am replying to.
This DOWN leg will be shorter, faster and shallower than forecast.
Let me re-phrase ...
The CCI system issued a SHORT signal on July 11 ?
Are you SHORT any index?
What day did you go short?
The CCI 10 for the S&P500 went below +100 on July 11th.
WHY do you say, "Crash coming"
Without a Target Price and a Date (time frame) your forecast is worthless.
Kiy,
Have you noticed Mar, Apr, May, Jun & now Jul?
S&P 500 rises in the first half of the month
and then sells off in second half?
Quantitative tightening?
DT
Kiy,
Clarification of Price crossing the 10 Day MA and "CCI and SlowStoch agreeing with this cross"
Question #1: WHEN?
Is it when the Price crosses the 10 Day MA "Intra-Day" or just the "Close Price" only?
Question #2: CCI "agreeing" ?
If the price closes below the 10 Day MA today then ...
Yes ... CCI 20 last moved below +100 = falling
Yes ... CCI 20 last moved below +0 . . = falling
Yes ... CCI 20 last moved below -100 = falling
No .... CCI 20 last moved above -100 = rising
No .... CCI 20 last moved above +0 . . = rising
No .... CCI 20 last moved above +100 = rising
And the reverse of all of the above would be TRUE?
Question #3: Slow Stoch "agreeing" ?
If the price closes below the 10 Day MA today then ...
Yes ... CCI 10,3 Fast Line is below the Slow Line
AND does the Signal need to be below the 80 Line, too?
And the reverse of all of the above would be TRUE?
Kiy,
Initially, you mentioned the 10, 20 & 50 Day Moving Average.
You explained "Price vs 10 Day MA" is the Bull / Bear indicator.
But you never explained what the 20 Day MA & 50 Day MA where used for?
DT
End of month sell-off's ...
Q.T. = Quantitative Tightening
MAR Sell-off from mid-month to end-of-month, then rally !
APR Sell-off from mid-month to end-of-month, then rally !
MAY Sell-off from mid-month to end-of-month, then rally !
JUN Sell-off from mid-month to end-of-month, then rally !
JUL Sell-off from mid-month to end-of-month, then rally ?
I agree ...
That Gold is heading down, to a great long term buying opportunity.
Unfortunately, I consider Charles Nenner a perma-bear.
A stopped clock is correct twice a day.
We are still in a Bull Market.
Nenner has been wrong for a long time (years)
That does not say the Fed is selling Stocks.
It says stocks will fall ( due to draining of liquidity )
=============
The Federal Reserve is selling the Bonds / Short Term Treasuries
that they bought during the QE period.
$40 Billion in "Stocks" ?
I thought, the US Federal Reserve is selling $40 Billion in Bonds.
2017-07-19 SHORT S&P500, LONG R2K
Thursday morning ...
Added to SHORT S&P500
Flipped from: SHORT R2K, to: LONG R2K
Forecast: The pull-back bottoms in September
Worst case is SP500 down to 2,450
It all depends upon when the market PEAKS in August & how high.
Then Higher Highs in October
Actually the charts were BULLISH, not awful.
The SP500 is now over 2800 and rising ...
SP500 is going UP to 2900 next.
More UP is next.
I see false predictions for "down 350 points" - so wrong.
I am not a Perma-Bull, nor a Perma-Bear.
Generally, I trade in the direction of the larger trend.
Currently the main trend is UP, so I am mostly LONG for days or even a week.
I am BULLISH now, and justifiably so.
The S&P500 is on a zig-zag up to 3,000 before years end.
A forecast = A target PRICE and a target DATE.
We can discuss what is next, after we get to 3,000.
We have a long time before there is a big downtrend.
I am really focused on the current UPTREND.
The trend is your friend, and currently it is UP ...
BTD ...
No, what I meant was ...
The CCI Graph is not generated from any Price Data.
Not from the S&P 500 Price Data.
Not from the SPY Price Data.
Not from any Price Data.
RED Line = Close your LONG position ...
So, I closed my LONG position, for a PROFIT, again.
Now, this strategy is waiting for a new GREEN Line = Go Long.
2018-07-17 SHORT the S&P 500
ST TOP
I am expecting the S&P 500 to roll-over, and drop down ...
Closed my LONG for a PROFIT
2018-07-16 Holding SHORT Russell 2K
Index ( $IWM ) was DOWN 0.4% = Cha-Ching
"When this sucker starts DOWN"?
HUH?
We are in an Up-Trend
BTD ...
You say, "This is going to end badly"
"End" - When?
Do you know?
"Badly" - How? ( and for whom? )
Do you know?
If you know, then please explain ...
The CCI(10) graph is not generated from (SPY) Price
SWING TRADE from days, to weeks ?
Look at the CCI(10) SIGNAL in the "subscription" chart below ...
Green Line = BUY LONG when CCI(10) rises from BELOW -100
Red Line = CLOSE LONG when CCI(10) falls from ABOVE +100
It BUYS on "strength" and CLOSES on "weakness".
As a stand-alone indicator, it has a very good track record.
It keeps you on the "right side" of the market.
If you instead, try to SHORT on the RED line, it is not 100%.
There were (5?) small losses shorting, in the past year.
So-called, "Financial News" is mostly just noise - to entertain us.
How many times have they said, "Buy the rumor, sell the news."
What rumor?
We never get hear any of the rumors.
We are always the last people to learn about good news or bad news.
Follow the Up-Trend.
BTD ...
Agreed, "Sure Thing" in an Up-Trend, when BTD (Buy-The-Dip) works well.
But I see many failures ( large draw-downs ) during a Down Trend.
We just have to identify an Up-Trend vs a Down-Trend
and adjust our strategy, accordingly.
I think, the S&P500 will top out around 3,200 in MAY 2019.
And then we have a BIG DROP of 1,000 points = Down Trend !
In 2019 ... "Sell in May & go away" should work.