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Interesting podcast with Kevin Crawford
https://www.ivoox.com/en/virtra-vtsi-with-kevin-crawford-audios-mp3_rf_106319180_1.html
Someone from the company buying shares, wow, snowing in hell today
It doesn’t look like an open market buy since it is coded as “A” and not “P”…..but sec forms are still a bit Greek to me.
Good to see! CFO's know whats going on : )
Insider buy from new CFO spouse. 4,000 at 5.75
Thanks for the shout out. I did up it from 30M to 40M in 5 years, but now I think 35M would be the figure.
Yep, all good points. Each of us is wired differently with respect to stock investing. Whatever approach one takes, confidence and conviction are the absolute key. And for the most part, message boards are poison to most people because of the emotions involved.
One of the few things that Jim Kramer said that I agree with is "never turn a trade into an investment." I have violated this rule many times throughout the decades and it usually bit me in the backside.
Right now I love the stocks I own which is sorta stupid since it means I am likely overconfident. My biggest positions are SUP, GLT, JOB, NNBR, GFGSF, HRTG, CMLS, VTSI, FARM, DLX, GGGOF, UIS. Most of these I am underwater on right now. About the only ones I am up on are UIS, GFGSF, SUP, VTSI. But that is the nature of how I buy as I always tend to buy on the way down. In my mind, I consider every one of these 12 stocks to be very strong buys right now if one is willing to hold for a year or two.
Wrt VTSI, if it does drift significantly lower on light volume I will be a big buyer ahead of the Q1 report.
(I think the VTSI low in 2008 was about 70cents accounting for the 1:20 splits since then.)
Thanks, I'll check them out. Looks like they would be decent stocks to trade, especially GLT.
I know there are good fundamentalist traders/investors, it seems likely you are one of them. I just got tired of beating my head against the wall on all these stocks about what the valuation should be, just like many of you have done on here. Why is xyz stock trading at a P/E of 8 for 5 years? and then my money is tied up in it for so long just waiting for the market to value it at P/E of 15, and then every 3 months when a quarterly/annual report comes out, trying to revalue the company. To be sure, there are many good stock plays that can be 100 baggers and make you a ton. But i've found those are just so difficult to find and actually hold for the 10-20 years it takes (psychologically). I mean, Virtra is actually a 100 bagger, it was trading at 4 cents back in 2008. But we all know what Virtra looked like in 2008, it was probably 80% more likely to go bankrupt than become a 100 bagger. Anyway I found it appeals to my brain more to play the psychological, shorter term ups and downs in the major indexes/sectors, where I can use simple indicators that are very logical and give me a very simple buy/sell signal, taking out any guesswork or company research (since this is a side hustle, not my job, so i don't have hours upon hours for research time). That also eliminated my individual stock risk. But, that also means i generally score wins and losses of 1-10%, rather than multi-bagger stock picks. But I'm ok with that.
Cool, sounds like you have found what works for you. That is half the battle.
A couple stocks that might work well for you are UIS and GLT. Both are at multi decade lows. Both are easy to trade into and out of. Both will be 5 to 10 baggers over the next several years. Both trade nicely and somewhat predictably. I own both for the long term but do swing trade each along the way.
Unfortunately I’m one of those confounded technical traders now. Not a day trader, but a swing trader, holding for days to weeks, looking for the “fairway” in the trending move. I trade off of bollinger bands, some moving averages, and an indicator or two. This move was so extreme that it really stretched out all of those things so wildly that it will likely take at least several months to get back to a buy signal for me. Virtra really is a bad stock for me to trade, though. I generally use market orders and the bid/ask spread and lack of volume in this stock doesn’t lend itself to that. Going back through its history it also doesn’t behave in a consistent manner for my system to work very well. I only entered this time because I had a feeling the annual report would be really good and the stock was low enough in price I thought it might see a 10-20% bump. I have no problem saying I got incredibly lucky with how it turned out.
Congrats on your trade! Will you be nimble enough to buy back before the Q1 report regardless of price? Or only if it makes a low volume dip between now and then? Or did you deploy your money elsewhere? Inquiring minds want to know.
Sold, thanks VTSI. Took over an hour screwing around with the ask. Low volume is a killer for this stock. Much easier if you buy at the ask and sell at the bid. But that's some sucky fills.
Market cap is 64M. So close to 2 times last year's sales. Maybe we could get to 4 times sales with some more excitement.
100M a year rev would be 400M market cap. About a 7 bagger from here.
Hey Fish, I think the military will be significant, and I think you are realistic with your projections, because he has done it before, and the company also is confident they have the scalability to support it. I am looking forward to Q1 report, right around the corner!
For me, VTSI is a difficult stock to value. I will ignore all the normal stuff that is most important to me…PS, PB, EV/ebitda, debt….and ponder why it’s difficult.
1. The stock should get bonus points for the squeaky clean simple capital structure. No hidden classes of shares. No preferreds. No convertible debt.
2. It is also in a sweet spot with respect to insider ownership, not too much, but enough to matter….but not control.
3. It also has a great story, a great mission, one can be proud to have VTSI tatood on one’s body.
4. But erratic revenue and even more erratic eps cause all of us and all others much angst.
5. And then there is the performance relative to the potential. Other than Bill, is there anyone that does not think VirTra could (easily) have dependable revenue of $200mil a year just from USA municipal police depts? A lousy one thousand V300 systems would be more than $200mil. And there are well over 12,000 departments that could afford to have 1 to 10 systems each.
6. Then there is the Military hope/carrot. Is this a $50mil per year opportunity or a $250mil per year opportunity?
Enough!….this list could go on and on.
It is encouraging to see the continued upward movement with decent volume!
keep this train chugging up the hill
I agree with you guys too. There's a ton of room for margin improvement through better internal manufacturing and fulfilment efficiencies. I just hope our R&D investments will bear fruit in the form of a more differentiated product which then drives topline growth. TI is already using AR and Inveris Training has it too (and is advertising it heavily) so I'm excited to see what Virtra releases. Bob is an OG in simulations so I'm sure he has something up his sleeve.
I agree with you 100%. Improving/simplifying the physical design and component sourcing and assy do have to come first. Basically automating/streamlining every process from order entry to shipping.
My frustration has always been that Ferris would never admit that he did not have the “company in place” to support a great or even average producing sales Org. This was/is a two part problem in that he still has no idea what a great sales Org should deliver and no idea what a “robust in every way” product really means. It sounds like they are starting to understand the product stuff….and like you said hopefully their attention turns to fixing their Sales Org.
Hey Fish, I agree with a lot, but I think the scalability and ability to push out orders quickly, that Givens has pushed towards over the last year is what needed to happen first. Quite frankly, they were probably scared or not confident they could support a large amount of orders. I hope and believe this is no longer the case. I really like that they now have liaisons that are doing the installations and also doing the support and are also the ones staying in contact with the customers, pushing add on sales, etc... (welcome to the 21st century! LOL)..... But with what is in place now and the commitment to continuous improvement and not being satisfied, I think there will be a much greater focus on the sales structure going forward. My opinion, i that the company has come A LONG way in the last 8 months, and if it continues we will finally have what we believed this company can be.... enthusiasm, desire, and hard work are often contagious in a company.
Bill,
Word of advice, don't strangle your wife. Just send me the money, I'll take care of it, you can owe me.
This is just my opinion…..VirTra’s head of Sales (Mulcahy) does not know what is required to consistently sell product to police departments. He does not understand the hand holding required, he does not understand that 6 to 18months of courting is often required, he doesn’t understand that a personal relationship between the PD decision maker and a smart personable VirTra sales person is required.
I think Givens understands how to sell to the Fed Government but I do not believe he knows what it takes to sell a $200,000 system to a municipality.
Ferris and Givens ARE both smart enough to know that VirTra is not close to realizing its revenue potential. And I think that (now) both are smart enough to know the Sales Org needs to be fixed. I think in the past Ferris was hesitant to fix Sales because one good salesperson could have destroyed the company because the structure of the company could not support higher sales. Now it can! So my hope is that now the Sales Org gets fixed.
A good Sales Org also ensures the company will continue to supply it with best in class products. A great VP of Sales would mean VirTras products and R&D pipeline are always #1. In other words, a great Sales VP will demand that the company supports its efforts. Sales is ThE most important function in any company.
To your point, VirTra has most all the tools and they do some required salesy things well but others are absent and they still need to hire THE SALES GUY! And by guy I mean male or female and/or man or woman or any combination thereof.
It was an encouraging day, especially compared to the carnage in small company stocks today.
But I really don’t think you want 20x todays 67,000 share volume. 100,000 to 150,000 each day would be optimum. If the volume gets too high (or too low) relative to outstanding shares, it can make share price direction and sustainability independent of company performance over the long term (months to years).
Yes great point on the international opportunities. One thing that seems missing from a lot of the recent conversation is how Virtra is positioning itself relative to competitors. I think we have to assume that any market opportunities will have also been identified by our competitors. Market tailwinds are great but being the best company in a market with tailwinds is even better!
What is Virtra doing to ensure it is the #1 vendor in the eyes of customers?
I don't know if that means we need more marketing or more sales men and women or both but if we're going to keep pushing annual revenue higher and higher, we have to beat back Milo, TI and Inveris Training and the little VR startups. To Virtra's credit, I hear we have great booths at big tradeshows.
Wish there was 20x more volume but it was a constructive price action day.
They are nice, but Longboat Key is the best by far..
Virtra Facebook ad this morning.
Interested in a traveling position that can have you supporting law enforcement and military all over the world? The Field Service Representative position installs and performs maintenance on client simulators. #Hiring
https://hubs.li/Q01Jzr1V0
Jumping above previous recent high of 5.2 Monday and back testing but still closing above it yesterday is a decently good thing, technically. Just need to stay above it today and we could have another leg up. But sure would have liked to see volume higher yesterday to keep the eyes and ears on it.
You raise a good point about many countries pouring money into building up their militaries, perhaps that is why it was mentioned in the conf call about “working on a record number of big international deals.
You are right I am getting old. Will put my money to work in your state in a year or two. Either Manasota Key or Casey Key.
Annual revenue goes over $40mil this year and doubles next year. Again….I hope.
Virtually every Euorpean country is building their military and increasing the size of their armies, which means training. I didn't even mention the Pacific rim (jJapan, Indonesia etc.)
As for 300M in 5-6 years, you are the one who is nuts. I posted several years ago this will never be more than a 30M company. So far, I'm right, but I'll up it to 40M in 5-6 years.
BTW, I think you're starting to get a little old yourself. What the hell are you going to do with all that money? My wife buys the powerball tickets and I tell her if she ever wins I will strangle her. The amount of money for that is obscene, but the amount you're posting about is damn near the same..
I'm done, no more.
I shouldn't have posted in the first place
I do enjoy your posts and your personality! Where were you wrong? In my view, Ukraine/Russia are not relevant to VirTra in any way. Also, with any tech product, none will be saleable for 20years, they require continuous improvements and evolution. You were also wrong about todays stock action, todays low volume 3.7% drop was very small compared to yesterdays high volume 38% gain. Almost 5% of the stock traded yesterday, that is a big meaningful number.
Look, I will be the first to say $4 or $5 or $6 is all about the same to me. I am not here to nibble or flip for 50%. I am here for when the company realizes its potential. I want the company at a $300mil annual revenue rate and a $1billion market cap. At the current pace I will be 173 years old when it happens….but with the right CEO and tweaks to the sales org maybe it happens in 5 to 6 years….huh
Joe, I agree to the extent that it was better than usual, but this report for the Qtr and year should have been 1M or more. It has been in the past on financials not near as good. The drop off troday was huge. Even past reports, not near as good, kept the momo for a couple of days at least. I hope the rest of the week improves, but as I said, if it doesn't, this would be a wasted opportunity. Fish thinks I'm crazy, but what did I post that doesn't make sense?
Best to you and yours. You and some others deserve the reward you want. I just got tired of waiting.
The volume yesterday for one. A half a million shares for VirTra is a huge day.
Where was I wrong??
Bill, Please pick up your phone. Press the numbers 9….1…..1, in that order. When someone answers, please read them this: “I fell on my head and need help.” Good luck!
….ok, sorry to joke and I admit you have been more right than wrong over the last decade wrt VirTra results. However, stay tuned until after the Q1 report. Also, while you have been mostly correct, the reasons you state are categorically incorrect.
This was a great report and deserves a real boost, but volume yesterday was underwhelming and today even worse, If the rest of the week remains at this level, it doesn't matter who the buyers are, the party is over for this year and one and all can look foward to waiting another year and another year and another year. Europe and Ukraine should have been the turning poing as to whether this company ever achieved its desired potential. Now its onsey, twosy's sales from here on in. The supposed Military Contracts by this government Rep or Dem will never happen. They are still working off that 40M, 5 yr contract abd by that time the product will not only be not necessary, but obsolete. Every penny that Ferris said went to R&D, and it was a ton, was total B/S. by now they should have the product that would be saleable for the next 20 years, they don't...
Maybe Gomes upped his position too, probably find out on Friday
After a few brief forays on my part into those sorts of worlds, my conclusion is that there are not ANY, not even ONE, real person(s) behind any of the names/monikers/posters. I believe it is almost all 100% computer generated AI garbage meant to facilitate the speedy transfer of money from the honest/naive/inexperienced/greedy/stupid to the account of the Mastermind behind all of it. Not sure who it is, but the investment world would be a better place if he went away forever.
By now you know I am exaggerating a bit to make the point I am making but I truly believe this to be the case. It also would not surprise me in the least that the Mastermind is some sort of dark ops superteam within the bowels of a large legit enterprise with a household name we are all familiar.
.....ok, maybe I read too many suspense, crime thrillers
You might be right, but when you say
> If there were thousands of eyes on this, they wouldn’t all disappear in a day.
I think you're underestimating the power and attention span of Wall Street Bets-like groups on Discord
VirTra, Inc. Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/virtra-inc-nasdaq-vtsi-q4-163321674.html
Maybe, maybe not. In my view both Twitter and Stocktwits are useless in every way. Almost every post is auto generated and lacks any level of thought or perspective.
My guess is most of the volume was from institutional buying. Likely 2 or 3 small funds. We might get some idea when the June-end institutional holdings are published. Sellers were mostly retail traders.
If there were thousands of eyes on this, they wouldn’t all disappear in a day.
Need them to start being buyers this morning
Look at twitter. There were tons of traders in this one after Friday's AH action
https://www.thelion.com/bin/aio_msg.cgi?cmd=search&symbol=vtsi&x=22&y=32
“Pretty close”….ha ha, made me laugh!
I was only wrong about price, volume, and shape of the daily chart.
What an encouraging day! 470,000 in volume is astounding. I like it cuz it tells me there are enough people paying attention so that if the company can start stringing together Q after Q after Q the stock will reflect it. No real dips all day.
It would be fascinating to know who was buying today and who was selling. The path to $30 is now simple:
1. Q1 at least as good as Q4.
2. Significant insider buys.
3. Q2 over $10mil.
4. Big Military award in Sept or Oct.
5. Q3 that doesn’t suck.
And.... in 6 weeks we'll be getting another hopefully strong quarterly report!!!
Congrats everyone for sticking around. Such a strong day, sure seems like the first day of a new uptrend.
Let's see if we can do it again tomorrow. Getting through 5 was a good thing.
Really nice volume going into the close! Good to see
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COMPANY PROFILE: VirTra Systems, Inc. develops, sells, and supports use-of-force and marksmanship firearms training simulators in Arizona and internationally. Its products comprise V-300 simulator, a 300 degree wrap around screen for simulation training; V-180 simulator, a 180-degree screen for smaller spaces and budgets; V-100, a single-screen based simulator system; V-ST, a realistic single screen simulated shooting range simulator; and Top SME Content, a content supplied with its simulators. The company also offers V-Author, a software that allows users to create, edit, and train with content specific to agency objectives; Simulated Recoil, a range of realistic and reliable simulated recoil kits/weapons; and Threat-Fire, a return fire device that applies real-world stress on the trainees during simulation training. It serves law enforcement judgement use-of-force simulation training, military firearms simulation training, and civilian simulation shooting markets. The company sells its simulators and related products through a direct sales force and distribution partners. The company was formerly known as Ferris Productions, Inc. and changed its name to VirTra Systems, Inc. in April 2002. VirTra Systems, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.
VIRTRA SYSTEMS WEBSITE: http://www.virtra.com/
VIRTRA SYSTEMS FACEBOOK: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Virtra-Systems-Inc/100717131887
VIRTRA SYSTEMS TWITTER: http://twitter.com/VirtraSystems
VIRTRA SYSTEMS YOUTUBE: http://www.youtube.com/user/VirtraSystems
Bob Ferris, CEO
VirTra Systems, Inc.
7970 S. Kyrene Rd.
Tempe, AZ 85284
telephone (480) 968-1488 x5014
telecopier (480) 968-1448 fax
bferris@virtra.com
Contract - Websites
https://www.usaspending.gov/#/keyword_search/virtra
https://buyandsell.gc.ca/procurement-data/search/site/virtra
https://www.tenders.gov.au/?event=public.advancedsearch.keyword&keyword=virtra
https://www.defense.gov/News/Contracts/
https://govtribe.com/vendor/virtra-systems-inc-tempe-az
https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=list&tab=list
http://www.peostri.army.mil/
ThreatFire Patent:
Click here
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