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I agree - the Fed is complicated and finding objective facts is challenging to say the least. Have a great afternoon Roy.
I'm just lurking until I have a free daytrade (Thurs). Thanks for your posts.
Gone for today.
Jane, comments on FOMC later. I don't know much.
I'm trying to lower my ignorance level about the Fed and Treasury but it is slow going. If you are interested I'll post some links for study and/or discussion.
What I've gleaned so far (a year or so) is that it is imperative that one has a factual understanding of "ALL" about the Fed, good and bad. I am already convinced that very few people really have much grasp of the very complicated facts. That especially includes virtually all of our elected officials in Washington. Without facts, I don't see a way to rational discussion.
roy.JPM 15B equity buy back.good thing you were out of the puts.
OK. Enjoy.
Newly
I think most efforts on this board are geared towards "helping each other trade options" and there is quite a bit of effort expended here by active members in so doing. I also think an exchange of views on the larger economic issues of the day is not out of line or inappropriate to the stated aims of this thread as long as said discussion remains respectful and does not veer off into partisan politics.
Newly
I was hoping you could comment on FOMC Roy.
I can't make the connection yet between what was said, and market implications. Any thoughts?
wow we just went thru a stock meltdown in the 2008 and many people's 401k were wiped out
meanwhile no senior missed a social security check..
and yet you would still prefer a private investment to take over your retirement rather than a government insurance program ?
as roy said we should be talking trading not politics where we agree to disagree.
since it became a long post i could not include what to exclude. defense,law enforcement,judiciary even though they fail sometimes but those are the ones private enterprise cannot do. regarding Roads and other stuff any ways govt outsources to private enterprises with lot of issues in that.
regarding social security,medicare,medicaid if an average 50k above salary person takes all the money contributed in his life time and invests in the lowest yield accounts with the lowest risk assets they would be far better off.
I hope we can spend most of our efforts here in helping each other trade options.
Of course there are some important aspects of governmental involvement which bear directly on our trading and which are useful in discussion.
For exampe, today's Fed report, just releasd 40 minutes ago. What effect might discussion have on the market for the rest of today, this week, nearby weeks?
Thank you for putting my exact thoughts on this.
The point is not that government cannot do anything right, the point is that private enterprise can do it better because competition makes them lean and mean and allows greater freedom to implement necessary changes, whereas government has no competition and is therefore fat and lazy and slow to take action when required. Keep in mind that every time we give up a responsibility to the government, we also lose a freedom.
I personally do not believe the government has done as good a job monitoring the social security system as a private enterprise would have done. They misdirected and misused contributed funds and funneled them into areas for which they were never intended. Had these funds been safely invested for the benefit of those enrolled in the system, there would be more than enough money in the social security fund today instead of a ton of worthless or nearly worthless US I.O.U's which the government may never have the funds to redeem. Remember, we workers have paid into social security over our entire working lifetimes more than enough to sustain us in retirement if said funds had been wisely invested. We have also paid into medicare our entire working lives, and we continue to pay during retirement for everything except catastrophic coverage (of which the government provides a limited amount of coverage for free).
Newly
looks like you are going little out of the usual stocks you play.
Yeah, but still with issues with which I have some acquaintance.
Heard some words again today on CNBC about China and rare earths and recalled the MCP stuff from year before last. I'm a previous engineer/manager at TI and retain some working interest in related technical matters.
Took a quick peek at the MCP chart, and the steep upward movement suggested a possible reversal.
The 1:30 lower high drew attention to the fact that the earlier HOD at 32.63 was maybe running into resistance at the early February high at 32.94.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MCP&id=p58448044944&def=N&listNum=1
Plus the intraday oscillators were showing overbought. Of special interest in my technical tactics was the Wm%R(14) dive through -50 on both the 5 and 15-minute charts at 1:30 simultaneous with lower highs on the RSI, usually a favorable puts entry.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MCP&id=p72963778222&def=Y&listNum=1
i do find it ironic you are telling me government can't do anything right on the internet which was originally a US government initiative.
i guess you don't like the roads you drive on , the police that protect you and your property, the schools that take ANY children (not just the ones that can afford tuition ) and educate them. the social security that is waiting for you when you retire (regardless of stock market crashes or economic downturns) , the medicare that will pay your doctor bills when you get old.
it is so easy to say government doesn't do anything right.. sorry but it just isn't true.
Sld MCP Mar 32.5 puts at 1.95
+ .74
roy..looks like you are going little out of the usual stocks you play.interesting plays...
Edit to post 77177
Bot MCP Mar 32.5 puts
Failed to identify the underlying MCP on post 77177
Ah yes, clearly put.
Anyone who believes that chart means anything.
Bot Mar 32.5 puts at 1.21
Rare earths in the news yesterday and today.
MCP is a U.S. outfit with "very promising" reserves somewhere in the western states, I don't recall exactly. The stock was about 12 in mid 2010 and there was an interview on CNBC which sparked the stock to climb to 70ish a year later. Since then it drifted lower and I didn't keep up with what was going on.
Something has caused some world-wide hubub about rare earths with a high percentage of the production in China.
I failed to pick up on the calls Friday and this morning. Risky, I think, to try the puts. But there it is.
Sld JPM Mar 42 puts at .85
+.01
Nuthin' doin'.
I'd be surprised given all the shady, off budget accounting if we were comparing apples to apples and oranges to oranges. Looking back how much credence would we give to the quarterly reports from Arthur Anderson on Enron's books? Those accountants didn't retire when that shop was forced to go belly up. They just changed seats.
Primarily, as I guessed the missing statistical component that distorts these measures is not showing the spending as a percentage of GDP.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:CBO_Revenues_Outlays_Percentage_GDP.svg
According to this chart it looks like Reagan's effect on outlays and revenues was to hold them flat over his term as a percentage of GDP.
Neither chart adjusts properly for inflation
Sld NFLX Mar 105 puts at 1.76
+.32
my view is in a free market capitalist country no one should have monopoly. being said that if its true free market then one corporation will never be a monopoly as the competitors will prop up immediately.
right now US govt is the monopoly in lot of businesses like.
Govt in mortgage business. this has screwed up entire real estate.
govt in public school. private schools cannot compete at all.
govt should not be involved in any business and offer the individuals who do not want to use that stupid social security.any ways we get that around 70 yrs.very few people who live that long will use that pennies.all that money is benefiting corrupt people now.
corporates are not people.they are businesses.they should not have income taxes.people aka employees should have taxes.why all are moving to china,india, low cost countries.they do not tax corporates.they tax people.imagine if corporates do not have taxes they would definitely distribute among shareholders or employees for retaining good employees.these employees will pay taxes in turn.
because of this in US now the tax system is so complex.any ways 70% of the corporates do not pay any taxes and hoarding all the cash outside the country and investing in other countries rather than in US.
sorry. my view is govt departments cannot do any thing right.too much BS and too much politics involved even if the individuals in the govt wants to do any thing.
also, US is already a socialistic country.people can deny what they want but this country is already socialist. govt in mortgage,schooling,social security,medicare,medicaid,regulations for every BS,license,permit,insured to do any business.sue free country and no person offers any true advice any more as they are always afraid of being sued...
for a small business to make profit it is very difficult these days with all the regulations and legal mumbo jumbo involved.
Just my 2 cents...
Sld IWM Mar 82 puts at .66
+.07
-naive.
Who? smartone, Paul, Roy, Taleb?
i think Ron Paul is a libertarian - he is lauded for being consistant in his positions.
but there is so many issues with Ron Paul and Libertarian stance
it just doesn't jive with real world
LOL... One word - naive.
Your take away?
Taleb, author of The Black Swan on CNBC just now says only Ron Paul gets it with regard to the economy.
Says repeated novocain never gets it when the only real solution is to go ahead with the root canal.
Last month deficit was >$200B. Fatal outcome at that rate.
Says federal empoloyees standard of living higher than the non-government population is serious error.
Expects eventual hyper inflation, which forces him to own stocks and real estate as the best defense.
Takes no political stance other than to say the other three Republican candidates are not to be trusted with regard to the deficit.
Stopped out of SPY 138 puts at .86
-.02. HOD was 1.00
BOT SPY Mar 17 2012 138.0 Put .74
BOT AMZN Mar 17 2012 180.0 Put 1.00
Sld AMZN Mar 185 puts at 4.70
+2.42. Dbl.
SOLD QQQ Mar 17 2012 65.0 Put .49
-.01
ramp at end of day coming
Sld RIMM Mar 14 puts at .96
+.35
Done for today. Sleeping on cash.
I'm not following stocks too closely today, but saving up my attention to come back in on Thursday or Friday.
Weather is getting warm. It's been very rainy and the skeeters are as big as crows. I am free-lance writing today about pest services, so the skeeters serve as my muse. See ya Thursday/Fri for some more lurking over your trades!
Hi Jane, how's your weather? Gonna be in the 80's here today.
--Good job - you are busy today!
Second part is in the vicinity, yes, nevertheless-----
Thanks for the first, but there was an extreme dunce typing here in NFLX. Dipped a toe in but thought awful and cut and runned. Now with severe regret and self flagellation, I see doubles on three or four of near the money strikes. Coulda, woulda, shoulda.
Now RIMM. Take the +57%? Pretty oversold intraday indicators. Lay on calls?
Good job Roy - you are busy today!
PEBBLEWRITER's opinion:
"...SPX is off a few points, so why is VIX cratering? VIX just plunged into the 15s for the first time since days before the July crash, touching 15.23 moments ago. In every instance except for December 2010, this was a very bad sign for the bulls."
VIX has broken below 16 and change to an intraday print at 15.23
Not a sign of market weakness.
There has been a rebound since about 10:00 a.m. to 16.37 which may be testing resistance at recent lows: 16.42, 16.10 and 16.80.
All this is part of my resoning to take off puts which have printed nice scalps so far today.
Sld IWM Mar 81 puts at .74
+.22
Sld SLV Mar 32.5 calls at .73
+.12
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