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Our job is to be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy
Fed Chair Powell has ruled out a 75 bps rate hike, cooling hawkish expectations. By saying neutral rates are between 2% to 3%, markets may see the light at the end of the tunnel. Let's hope it's not a train ...
C Fund, Daily Chart
You are welcome, S.
May the Force be with us!
Thanks Frenchee. I was able to grab the gain from yesterday and I'm glad your analysis supports my projections. Definitely appreciate you sharing what you're seeing!
C Fund Buy Signal on Tap
My buy indicator will be when the Fast MAC-D crosses its signal line.
C Fund Daily Chart
VIX Correlation with C Fund and S Fund
Daily VIX
C Fund Sell Signal on Tap
The sell signal is when the 5-day EMA of price is breached, or the Stop and Reversal (SAR) indicator flips.
C Fund Daily Chart
I stumbled on this article and thought I would share. https://federalnewsnetwork.com/mike-causey-federal-report/2022/03/5000-new-tsp-options-is-there-an-esg-fund-for-you/
My indicators are strongly suggesting that the bottom was the 14 March test of the low with S&P 500 at 4173. We'll see. If the S&P 500 goes up another 1% or so, I'll be a buyer.
C Fund's 31-day SMA providing resistance in the intermediate-term downtrend
Daily C Fund Chart
Thanks for your comments, B6S
The charts agreed with your assessment. The S&P 500 made a double top at 4589. Then the Russell 2000 failed to stay above its prior high. It looks like the S&P 500 will test its prior waterfall-low of 4327. The waterfall decline is usually the low, or near the low.
I saw a piece by Lance Roberts talking about the recent waterfall decline. Then Chris Ciovacco said we haven’t yet had a waterfall decline. I hope Chris is wrong.
Got a C Fund sell signal today.
C Fund Daily Chart
Here's a short-term chart of relative strength between S and C Funds
VXF vs $SPX Daily Chart
Thanks baja6string. Great feedback. I appreciate it.
Thanks for your perspective Frenchee. Even though S seems to show plenty of room for growth, I guess long term performance is a better indicator when comparing the two.
Continuing to learn/refine the craft. As always, thanks!!
Hi Snippy,
I chose C Fund as it has outperformed S Fund since Feb 2021. Check out the relative strength chart between C and S Funds.
VXF vs $SPX Weekly Chart
I went 100% C fund Monday, sorry I forgot to post here, but you can always read my blog at...
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/
I added stocks via non-TSP funds last week since it looked like the bottom was 25 January. I was 2 days early.
As for C vs S, I would almost always choose S over C after corrections. The S fund gets beat up more and tends to rally well after a bottom and generally would beat the C fund. Now I am much more cautious. We may be headed for the all-time high and crash (50% or more down). I want quality so it’s C over S. Having said that, every talking head on CNBC is talking about buying quality. The Russell 2000 outperformed the S&P 500 1.1% to 0.69% Tuesday. Sometimes it’s a good idea to buck the trend, so who am I to say you are wrong?
On the general state of the market, here's a quote from John Hussman, PhD, from November:
“...on Friday, November 19, we hit the motherlode. Across four decades of work in the financial markets, and over a century of historical data, I’ve never observed as many historical indications of a market peak occurring simultaneously. Noise reduction is always a process of drawing a common signal from multiple, partially correlated sensors, even if each individual sensor might be imperfect. The reason that we follow boatloads of these syndromes is the same reason we base our gauge of market internals on thousands of securities – uniformity conveys information.
Emphatically – and this is important – my intent here is not to “call the top” of this bubble. Yes, this is a bubble in my view. Yes, I believe it will end in tears. Yes, the price investors pay for a given stream of future cash flows is inseparable from the long-term returns they can expect. Yes, if this bubble is ever to actually have a top, this would be a perfectly reasonable moment to expect one. Still, my present intent is simply to share what we’re observing.” - John Hussman, PhD. Commentary at...
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc211120/
Hi Frenchee. Just seeing your post and I completed my review this morning and chose to select S fund because the gains seemed to be more substantive of late, than C, when comparing the charts (RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands, etc.). It could be I haven't mastered my review of charts to dial that in. Do you see negative implication for being in all S versus C. Any feedback you would provide is appreciated. Thanks much!!
Went all in C Fund today. May the Force be with us!
Frenchee's C Fund Daily Chart
Watch the Dollar's Value
A trend change in the Dollar will have a headwind or tailwind impact relative to our TSP choices.
Weekly $US Chart
Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to all my buds here! Wishing you all the best!
Thanks for posting Frenchee. Today, we completed back-to-back days with >80% Up-volume, another indication that the weakness is over, at least for a while.
New C Fund Buy Signal this Morning
Daily C Fund Chart
Took profits in my SDS short position on the big move down today. Still sitting at 35% invested in stocks. We'll have to see where this market goes. I suspect it will drop further, but panics sometimes indicate bottoms rather than the start of selling.
I sold. Now about 35% invested in stocks with a small short position. Expecting about a 5% pullback from here.
Get Ready to Sell
Reference the annotated C Fund Chart, when the fast MACD signal-line crosses, I'm lightening up and taking some profits.
Annotated C Fund Daily Chart
Hi folks. Hope you all are well. This year the percentages are harder to come by, but ending last year at 49.66, I'm not complaining. I've been monitoring/applying my long standing process which averages between 25-28% annually and this year is a struggle to get beyond 20. Hopeful to hit that mark today. Certainly a sign of the times, but there may be time to recover between now and the end of December. Good luck and happy investing!
Hi folks. Hope you all are well. This year the percentages are harder to come by, but ending last year at 49.66, I'm not complaining. I've been monitoring/applying my long standing process which averages between 25-28% annually and this year is a struggle to get beyond 20. Hopeful to hit that mark today. Certainly a sign of the times, but there may be time to recover between now and the end of December. Good luck and happy investing!
OT: Here's a page you guys might find entertaining during the NFL season
https://investorshub.advfn.com/NFL-King-Queen-of-the-Hill-Pool-2915/
I have more funds outside of my TSP so I usually just post my % invested in stocks here rather than posting my TSP allocations. My TSP allocations wouldn't make sense for anyone. This board does have sensible posters and no off-topic uninformed BS. It would be nice if we could get more posters just giving stock advice or expressing general market opinions.
true that...I pretty much have my TSP set for retirement mode. I rolled a fair amount over to an IRA brokerage account in Jan 2020. I spend most of my time building there...
There was a lot of market internal improvement after the FED meeting. As of Friday, 27 Aug, my bullish indicators are outnumbering the bears. It looks like the next top might be signaled by the usual suspects: Overbought Bollinger Bands , RSI, too many bull-days in the month and a few others. Bollinger Bands are nearly overbought now, but RSI is drifting around in neutral territory. A top (not "THE TOP") is coming, but perhaps not imminent. I'll probably be at 50% invested in stocks on Monday.
As Snippy notes, it would be nice to see more activity here.
Thanks Baja6string. I agree. I was successful at claiming 100% of the recent gains in the S fund this month and went ahead and moved to G fund in anticipation of the fed meetings(and an on average "murky" September month). I've learned to enjoy "red" as much as "green" by being out at the right time. Sure to not always time it correctly, but not too shabby. Will be watching September and October very closely. I've also dabbled with overlaying the many L fund options to be considered in lieu of going straight to G. I've studied that out a bit have have been somewhat successful playing some of those options versus G, similar to a dollar cost average concept. Always looking for ways to study the process and expand options.
Thanks for adding a post to the forum....there hasn't been much life here lately.
Looks like trouble ahead for the stock market. The next day or 2 will be important to see if that is the correct call. I'm about 50% invested on stocks at this point...about right for a retiree. I'll cut back more if signs continue to deteriorate.
When is this market going to breakdown? Does it go up forever?!
Thank-you Frenchee. I appreciate your thoughts!
Thank you, baja6string
Ditto mate on Happy New Year to all!
I went to all G Fund today as I don't like the negative divergences between price and momentum-based indicators. In addition, I noted the Bollinger Bandwidth is narrow implying a big move on tap, and from current high levels, I don't think that big move will be North.
C Fund, Daily View
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all. We need to wake this board up!
We’ve got a lot a bullish signs and one would think all is well. Not true! The S&P 500 is 14.2% above its 200-dMA (too high) and only 2% of issues on the NYSE made new-highs at the 13 November all-time high Friday (too low). Looking back 11 years, the only time I could find that those two indicators were bearish at the same time was on 2 sept 2020. That was the top of the recently completed 9.6% correction.
I also found only 1 all-time-high with a lower % of new-highs over that 11-year period. That occurred after a correction-low when new-highs would have been depressed.
The bottom line is that the markets are showing an extremely narrow advance suggesting a fragile market ready to fall.
You are welcome, mate
Thank you...great siggestion
Congrats on your retirement!
I'd recommend a lifecycle fund, other than income, based on your withdrawn period needs.
https://www.tsp.gov/funds-lifecycle/
Retired July 1st....holy moly why didn't you guys say how great it is. Question? Looking for ideas on TSP allocation %. What are your thoughts on allocation %ages to stay ahead of inflation?
Every portfolio needs to be building up a cash reserve from now until the inevitable day that we all absolutely know is coming...But that "when" can't paralyze investors...
Too quiet over here.
Bear signs abound: Bollinger Bands overbought; RSI overbought; <100 new, 52-week-highs at the recent all-time S&P 500 highs; only 4 down-days in the month; % of new-highs falling; <50% of stocks advancing on the NYSE over the last 10-days.
Now Lance Roberts noted that, “…each time of the 5-times previously, going back to 1999, where the market traded at 2-standard deviations or higher from the 4-year moving average, a reversion occurred. Those periods were 2000, 2007, 2014, 2018, February 2020, and now.” - Lance Roberts. Commentary, “A Tale of Two Bull Markets,” at …
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/macroview-a-tale-of-two-bull-markets/
How much longer can the FED hold off a correction? I don’t know…The Roberts piece suggests we may be headed toward a Bear market.
Welcome to Retirement Life!
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Background. The Thrift Saving Plan (TSP) is a retirement savings plan for current and retired federal civil service employees. The thrift savings plan is a defined-contribution plan designed to give federal employees the same retirement savings-related benefits that workers in the private sector enjoy with 401(k) plans. A Summary of the TSP can be found at this link tspbk08.pdf
Purpose. This Board contains market-timing commentary and discussion about the Government's Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) and the investment choices.
References. The TSP Web address for asset transfers and asset allocations is Home | The Thrift Savings Plan (TSP)
G Fund The G Fund invests in short-term U.S. treasuries and functions as a money market account. The principal is guaranteed.
S Fund The S Fund - the Small cap is a bit of a misnomer for this Fund. It is all of the U.S. stocks that are not included in the S&P 500. There are some relatively large companies in this Fund. It is a compilation of mid-cap stocks and small-cap stocks. It tracks the Barclays Extended Market Index Fund, which tracks the Wilshire 4500 index. Investing in C and S funds is investing in every tradable U.S. company. The Vanguard Extended Market Index VIPERS (VXF) is a proxy for the S Fund.
C Fund The C Fund invests in the Barclays Equity Index Fund, which tracks the S&P 500, the 500 largest U.S. companies traded. The S&P Large Cap Index ($SPX) is a proxy for the C Fund.
F Fund The F Fund is invested in the Barclays U.S. Debt Index Fund, a bond index fund that holds a representative sample of the bonds in the Lehman Brothers U.S. Aggregate (LBA) index. Economic indicators and money supply affect interest rates. Interest rates influence the movement of this Fund. When yields move lower, bonds go up in price, and the F fund goes up in value. When yields increase, bonds go down in price, and the F fund decreases in value. The iShares Core Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) is a proxy for the F Fund.
I Fund The I Fund - The International Fund follows the *EAFE index. This stands for Europe, Australia, and the Far East. The EAFE countries are Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. If you surf through any of the financial networks on TV at night, you will see quotes on these exchanges, and those results affect the next day's I fund price. The I Fund also carries the risk of foreign currency fluctuations. The companies' stock prices in the EAFE index are expressed in the currency of each respective country and then converted to U.S. dollars to determine the value of the EAFE index. Thus, the value of the EAFE index will rise as the value of the U.S. dollar falls - and fall as the value of the U.S. dollar increases - about the currencies of countries with companies represented in the EAFE index. The iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) is a proxy for the I Fund.
* On some days, the change in the I Fund share price reported by the TSP does not match the change noted for the Morgan Stanley EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) index, which the I Fund tracks. This happens when the Board's investment manager, Barclays Global Investors (BGI), reprices its EAFE Equity Index Fund, which the TSP invests, after closing the foreign markets. This process, known as "fair valuation," occurs when there are large U.S. market or currency movements between the time the foreign markets close and 4:00 p.m. when BGI's share prices are determined. Fair valuation ensures that traders cannot "market time" the I Fund by making investment decisions based on the "stale" prices, thus diluting the returns of other participants who invest in the I Fund. Because the EAFE uses the foreign market closing prices to calculate its values, its price change will differ from the TSP on those days.
Please keep your posts on the topic because your message(s) will probably be deleted when:
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C Fund: Regression to Trend
P/Es & Yields on Major Indexes
American Bull NYSE Market Timing
DecisionPoint Market Scoreboard for C Fund
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