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Re: HES acquisition
The “body language” on CVX’s 1Q24 CC today seemed somewhat less sanguine about closing the HES deal than CVX’s and HES’ prior comments. I could be wrong about this, but CVX seems to be preparing for investors for some kind of settlement of the dispute with XOM.
CLF PR on pricing transparency:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cleveland-cliffs-publish-monthly-hot-110000330.html
I have a hunch that jbog will say this is BS.
CAT—(+2%)—regaining some of yesterday’s loss, which seemed unduly severe.
CVX 1Q24 results…
PR:
https://chevroncorp.gcs-web.com/static-files/d6e0b7a2-bc43-42cf-aa0b-56ee0eedb3b0
CC slides with interspersed prepared remarks:
https://chevroncorp.gcs-web.com/static-files/993b5a93-e862-4b50-bef7-e7451d69f059
LOL...good point.
UPS and FedEx vans are among the worst polluters. (Do their vehicles ever get engine tune-ups?) If these companies actually convert to EVs, it will be a major quality-of-life upgrade for anyone who takes walks in residential areas.
Indeed.....seems to be a trend developing. Maybe that ?????? landing is coming.
FedEx and UPS hit the wall on EV adoption
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/focus-ups-fedex-transition-electric-152931566.html
CAT reports 1Q24 results—shares_slide_on_soft 2Q24 guidance:
PR:
https://www.caterpillar.com/content/dam/caterpillarDotCom/releases/1q24/1q24-caterpillar-inc-financial-results.pdf
CC slides:
https://s25.q4cdn.com/358376879/files/doc_financials/2024/q1/1Q-2024-Analyst-Slide-Deck_Final-1.pdf
1Q24 sales were $15.8B, flat YoY, with price increases offsetting lower volume. Sales in the Construction and Resources Industries (mining equipment) segments were -5% and -7% YoY, respectively, while sales in the Energy & Transportation segment were +7% YoY. The E&T segment comprised 45% of CAT’s product sales in 1Q24.
1Q24 non-GAAP EPS was $5.60, up from $4.91 in 1Q23. 1Q24 GAAP EPS was $5.75 up/down from $3.74 in 1Q23.
(Excluding restructuring costs from non-GAAP EPS is a policy that disapprove of because multinational, multifaceted businesses such as CAT have restructuring costs continually. In 1Q24, however, non-GAAP EPS came in slightly lower than GAAP EPS due to the exclusion from non-GAAP EPS of a one-time tax benefit.)
CAT does not provide specific guidance for sales or EPS, but it expects full-year 2024 sales to be similar to 2023. However, CAT guided to lower 2Q24 sales compared to 2Q23 (see slide #17), and this is apparently what caused today’s rather sharp selloff.
While trying to keep peace LG has given the USW everything. His contracts are all settled well in advance of their due date.
I believe his attitude is to spend whatever it is to keep everyone happy and then he expects the marketplace to pay the piper. Business doesn't work that way.
What if Nippon gets shunned and decides to enter the U,S, market through Southern Expansion? Good Night Irene
All I see is that LG is building a company that will never flourish in a competitive industry. He should hope that Nippon acquires US Steel so it is saddled by the obligations.
Didn't any of these guys read about the history of the steel industrials. The unions won everything until they didn't
More on the same topic:
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-earnings-04-23-2024/card/cleveland-cliffs-counting-on-biden-to-block-u-s-steel-purchase-hUHIUr7P15Rnk93TyUjB
p.s. Today's CLF CC was another one for the ages. It didn't help the share price, but it was great entertainment as well as educational.
CLF 1Q24 CC transcript:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cleveland-cliffs-clf-q1-2024-170011838.html
Much discussion of the non-takeover of US Steel.
Caution: this transcript has several OCR-generated errors. E.g., the transcript says “gold” in several places where the actual word is GOS (Grain-Oriented [electrical] Steel).
CLF 1Q24 CC notes re capital allocation:
CLF’s targeted debt leverage is <=2.5x EBITDA. There is ample room for CLF to continue to repurchase shares while staying well below the 2.5x ceiling.
CLF has no debt maturities until 2027.
I agree it's a non-cash charge but it does reduce the assets of the corporation similar to depreciation.. Cliffs also would benefit by reducing it's tax liability by a substantial sum,
The 1Q24 GAAP loss of $67M includes a $177M mostly-non-cash writedown from idling the Weirton, Ohio plant. This is shown in the GAAP-to-non-GAAP earnings reconciliation table at the bottom of the press release.
CLF reports 1Q24 results—authorizes new $1.5B buyback—reiterates 2024 guidance:
https://www.clevelandcliffs.com/investors/news-events/press-releases/detail/635/cleveland-cliffs-reports-first-quarter-2024-results-and
In 1Q24, CLF repurchased $608M of stock at an average price of $20, reducing shares outstanding by 6% and exhausting the pre-existing $1.0B buyback authorization. As a result, CLF has now authorized a new $1.5B buyback.
1Q24 highlights
• Revenue of $5.2B, -2% YoY
• Steel shipments of 3.94M net tons, -3% YoY
• Adjusted EBITDA of $414M, +70% YoY and +48% QoQ
• 3/31/24 net debt of ~$3.6B, up from $2.9B @12/31/23 (the increase is due primarily to the $608M share buyback)
Re-iterated 2024 guidance
• Steel shipment volumes of 16.5 million net tons, compared to 16.4 million net tons in 2023
• Steel unit cost reductions of approximately $30 per net ton, corresponding to ~$500M adjusted EBITDA benefit compared to 2023
• Capital expenditures of $675 to $725 million
The stock is down slightly in AH trading. CC Tuesday at 8:30am ET.
Tesla cuts US prices of Models Y, X, S by $2,000
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-cuts-us-prices-models-053202257.html
Without much lower price options EV's will never achieve wide acceptance in the USA. Tesla and the legacy auto companies can cut prices but it doesn't fix the base problem. The USA needs reliable entry level EV's at the $25k price point. All the political stunts and posturing about the new energy economy are a costly distraction.
I agree with the other comment. CERCLA liability from Landfills, Superfund sites, etc could be as much if not more than the PWS settlement. This liability will take many years to play out and is only worsened by the fact that the new EPA drinking water limits for PFAS are ultra low. This means they will be tested and found more frequently.
FL
Tesla crushed in Consumer Reports reliability rankings despite_improvement
From November, 2022. Can’t win ‘em all.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-placed-bottom-consumer-reports-reliability-rankings/
MSFT - It's not just about .gov systems. You have utility companies involved. It's easy to blame mainframes and COBOL but the fact is that MSFT is the front end and edgeware for almost all these systems and "integration" and O/S substitutions have been happening since the 80s. There may never be a solution without turning off the power and junking entire systems and turning on an entire new system with new software. In the latter case, do you still go with MSFT? It's their turn to answer the question instead of IBM.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/cybersecurity/fbi-says-chinese-hackers-preparing-attack-us-infrastructure-2024-04-18/
GE Vernova—(ticker: GEV)—GE’s power spinoff, is a thematic investment for this board:
https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/general-electrics-power-spinoff-could-be-formidable-once-fully-charged-0bd15005
Indeed...thanks for posting. For me, trading copper miners has been profitable. Recently sold all my miners (too early) but I am holding on to SA. SA ticks a lot of the "positive" boxes, friendly jurisdiction, capital improvements pre-construction. Permitting on track. Very large resource with long mine life. Hopefully they will be granted substantially started status which moves them one step closer to setting the stage for a partnership. Assuming the KSM project is funded and permitted it would be a large addition to annual copper production that the world needs.
Aging copper mines turn into money pits despite_demand
https://www.mining.com/web/column-aging-copper-mines-are-turning-into-money-pits-despite-demand/
US government computers include “legacy” dinosaurs. And a rat’s maze of different systems that are hard to coordinate. Plus, any decent programmer can make a lot more money in the private sector than as a government employee. It can be difficult to find young programmers who even know how to run the old systems.
Look at how hard it was to sign up for healthcare online when they first announced “Obamacare.” Look at the nightmare applying for college financial aid became when they put it online. By all reports, the IRS rollout of filing taxes online has gone smoothly, but they’ve started very slowly and still warn you to be careful about spam, scams, and phishing.
From a 2021 article:
https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-21-524t
CVX—US ends importation of Venezuela oil—sanctions reimposed:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-reimpose-venezuela-oil-ban-142402038.html
ABT 1Q24 Results by Business Segment
61% of overall corporate sales were ex-US.
%Corp YoY Growth
Segment Sales (const currency)
Medical devices* 45% +14%
Diagnostics 22% -16%†
Nutrition 21% +8%
Pharmaceuticals‡ 12% +14%
ABT reports 1Q24 results—raises 2024 guidance slightly—stock sells off because ABT didn’t raise 2024 guidance to a larger degree:
https://abbott.mediaroom.com/2024-04-17-Abbott-Reports-First-Quarter-2024-Results-and-Raises-Midpoint-of-Full-Year-Guidance-Ranges
2024 guidance for organic sales growth excluding COVID diagnostics is now 8.5-10%, up from the prior guidance of 8-10%.
2024 guidance for non-GAAP EPS (which excludes FX and restructuring costs) is now $4.55-$4.70, up from the prior guidance of $4.50-4.70.
1Q24 non-GAAP and GAAP EPS were $0.98 and $0.70, respectively, versus $1.03 and $0.59 in 1Q23. The YoY decline in non-GAAP EPS was due to lower sales of COVID diagnostics, which were $204M in 1Q24 vs $730M in 1Q23.
4Q23 FreeStyle Libre sales were $1.5B, +23% YoY in constant currency. FreeStyle Libre is the largest-selling medical device, ever, from any company.
Please see #msg-174255202 for a breakdown of ABT’s 1Q24 sales by business segment.
Tesla cutting labor cost won't fix the fundamental problem; competition. How low could the share price go......?????
to big to fail......
MSFT - It's not a good thing when a company charges extra for being careless and they feel they are too big to be fired.
https://www.wired.com/story/the-us-government-has-a-microsoft-problem/
Meta, Google and Intel have announced upgraded and in-house chips to compete with Nvidia in recent days. I expect this trend to continue and expand to other tech firms. Nvidia is currently the leader, but doesn't have a lock on the market.
I know....but I wonder when we'll see individual and class action suits made by individuals and parties outside this agreement?
https://www.robertkinglawfirm.com/personal-injury/pfas-class-action-lawsuit/
I don't know where this could go, but I still see a lot of potential problems related to health impact.
3M has already settled drinking-water claims with US states and municipalities:
https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_0eae5261e0f791dc08315189ed6e845d/3m/news/2024-04-01_3M_Settlement_with_Public_Water_Suppliers_to_1836.pdf
US sets first standard to curb 'forever chemicals' from drinking water
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-sets-first-standard-curb-090000945.html
As a gold price update, ETF outflows have now stopped. That is the next leg of support for this rally. Central Banks continue to buy (although at lower volumes). Will speculative fever come into the market while supply is limited? I would prefer slow and steady, but some follow through by the miners and royalty players seems like the next rotation. M&A should pick up in the industry.
GROY has consolidated and technically looks ripe for another 25%+ leg up. Cote Mine is now operational and commercial volumes expected to commence in Q3.
Cote First Pour
AI processors. I wonder if the effort to build AI processors beyond NVDA & AMD will significantly impact their revenue streams in the future. Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and others have deep pockets, and could potentially build out their own AI hardware systems. Are AMD and Nivida moats sufficiently wide to justify their lofty valuation?
TSLA - The writing was on the wall, the Great Wall (see linked Seagull review in prior post) . Musk accusing Reuters as lying. I doubt that Reuters is lying.
https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/tesla-abandons-plans-low-cost-ev-report-says
TSLA has much further to fall, IMO. If the SEC, which is currently investigating TSLA's accounting, finds evidence of fraud, look out below. Moreover, it's inevitable that China is going to put the squeeze on when they decide they don't need TSLA anymore.
FDA approves ABT’s TriClip device for repair tricuspid heart valve:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/abbott-receives-fda-approval-triclip-130000245.html
EW is the only other company with a similar device.
SHEL pulls back on—(unrealistic)—decarbonization goals:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-oil-revises-climate-goals-220000675.html
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