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Barron's - "Confused About EV Tax Credits? Read This."
This is all part of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. I'm presenting this with no comment as I'm speechless.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/ev-tax-credits-c206d9b9
By Karen Hube, March 02, 2024
Excerpts:
I couldn't be happier with the RAV4 hybrid.
PHEV battery range ~20mi ~10kw battery reverse engineering the displayed figures. Not worth the added cost and trouble unless you don't drive much. Overall <30 mpg which is ok for a 6 seater SUV. Charging is frequent and takes 2 hrs on level 2 charger. For a little more money, IMO Ionic 7 or EV9 probably better.
My RAV4 is a non-plug-in hybrid. I get 30-40 mpg in city driving, so I can go about 500 miles on a tank of gas.
Dew, what's your experience with battery range on Rav4? Just curious and comparing notes since I'm testing one. So far very underwhelming.
Going into the end of 2023 the news was decidedly negative on EV's across the board. Couldn't argue with the situation because sales growth has stalled and the future prospects are uncertain. But the news has begun to change on the commitment and the future of EV's. Still a problem of current sales but governments and CEO's are still saying EV's will be a significant percentage of sales by 2030. One of the reasons I feel confident is the growing chorus of concerned voices that China will dominate the space unless the EU and USA step up. I don't think it's a coincidence that BYD has said they aren't interested in selling cars directly into the US market, their establishing sales and manufacturing in countries that are behind in EV adoption that need BYD's expertise to establish a cost competitive industry. EV cost constraints are a world wide issue, BYD has already announced a collection of low priced cars available today. they're going to leverage their advantage and build their brand across the globe regardless of the USA and EU stance, and it will force the USA and EU to double the effort or watch China, Japan and S. Korea dominate the EV space. My opinion; this is a pause in EV adoption and the next phase is the move into lower priced volume sales and BYD is probably the best positioned to drive that segment. If you rank management effectiveness in navigating the change from ICE to EV I'd place BYD #1, Toyota #2 and Tesla #3. #1 and #2 because they saw the value of hybrids and #3 for 1st mover in EV's, but Tesla better hurry up with that low priced EV or even they will fall behind. The rest of the pack of legacy manufacturers have to really get moving or they'll look more like the AMC of the EV space.
Italy has been trying to woo Tesla-beating BYD as the second auto giant on its shores
https://fortune.com/europe/2024/02/26/italy-approaches-byd-manufacture-electric-vehicles/
This headline is becoming more commonplace as countries look at who is able to help develop a cost effective industry today
BYD Shortlisted in the Top Three for the 2024 World Car Awards
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/byd-shortlisted-top-three-2024-152000303.html
BYD EV sales grew nearly 50% in January as exports reached a new high
https://electrek.co/2024/02/01/byd-ev-sales-up-48-january-exports-new-high/
Looks to me like BYD is pulling away and their MC is only $78B, if you look to the future BYD is beginning to look unbeatable.
EV hype. Looks like the EV "winter" may be heading for a spring thaw. I'll add to BYDDY, PILBF, ALTM and consider starting a position in LINRF. LINRF for it's acquisition potential after the share price reset, it's still the best option in Australia for immediate returns for an acquiring firm. News flow for EV's has turned decidedly more positive the last 60 days.
The only negative for Liontown is their financing needs going forward.
RVNC is +26% today, even though the 4Q23 financials reported yesterday afternoon were pre-announced in January. I don’t know the reason for today’s big move, but I did find something strongly positive in yesterday’s conference call:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173940194
p.s. RVNC is a thematic stock for this message board. As emerging middle classes gain disposable income, one of the things they spend it on is looking good.
I would be inclined to agree, but HES' spokesperson (#msg-173935429) did not exactly convey confidence, LOL.
CVX/HES - doubt that this wasn't evaluated inside-out and upside-down before HES set up their data room for CVX audit.
Guyana is neutral toward XOM-CVX dispute re HES stake:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-guyana-takes-no-side-214952110.html
FDA bans PFAS in food packaging:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/fda-industry-actions-end-sales-of-pfas-used-in-us-food-packaging-302074609.html
SOLV sells $6.9B of debt in six tranches:
• $1B of 3yr notes @5.45%
• $1.5B of 5yr notes @5.40%
• $1B of 7yr notes @5.45%
• $1.65B of 10yr notes @5.60%
• $1.25B of 30yr notes @5.90%
• $0.5B of 40yr notes @6.00%
The total debt issuance was supposed to $8.4B (according to 3M's recent webcast), but I don't know where the other $1.5B is coming from.
All but $600M of the proceeds will be paid to 3M as consideration for the spin-off of 3M’s healthcare business to SOLV.
p.s. It’s eerie how flat the yield curve is all the way out to 40 years.
AAPL cancels EV program, according to sources:
https://www.reuters.com/technology/apple-cancels-work-ev-moves-staff-ai-project-bloomberg-reports-2024-02-27/
HES says XOM’s right-of-first-refusal does_not_apply_to Guyana, but if it does apply then HES is not entitled to a breakup fee from CVX:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-hess-says-pre-emption-230342569.html
If you find the above incongruous, you’re not alone, LOL.
WY inks carbon-sequestration deal—financial terms not disclosed:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/weyerhaeuser-lapis-energy-announce-carbon-213000734.html
CAT independent director bought $110K of stock on the open market last Friday:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/18230/000110465924027620/xslF345X05/tm247306-1_4seq1.xml
You don’t often see insider buying when a stock is trading within a hair of its all-time high.
I figured something was up when I read this early today{
Hess Corp. price target raised to $200 from $170 at Mizuho
05:14 HES
Mizuho raised the firm's price target on Hess Corp. to $200 from $170 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The analyst adjusted price targets for oil and gas companies pending acquisitions to reflect proposed exchange ratios.
Read more at:
https://thefly.com/n.php?id=3869726
CVX-HES merger has a possible glitch:
https://www.sec.gov/ixviewer/ix.html?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0000093410/000119312524046223/d576159ds4.htm (p.80)
TSLA Cybertruck - a review with retired GM Silverado program manager and now gentleman rancher.
Further details of 3M/SOLV capitalization:
SOLV will sell $8.4B of new debt, keeping $600M of the proceeds and paying $7.7B as a one-time (tax-free) dividend to 3M. (~$100M of the debt proceeds will go to underwriting fees.)
After the debt issuance and one-time payment to 3M, SOLV will have a debt/EBITDA ratio of ~3.5.
appreciate the input...I have no idea what a reasonable MC is? But with GOOGL throwing off $80B a year in free cash flow, seems like NVDA is well ahead of the reasonable level.
I can see them setting the pace for perhaps a couple of decades like Intel did with 8086 and the latter lasted almost 4 decades. Not chasing it though.
3M’s Solventum spin slated for 4/1/24—Nasdaq symbol=‘SOLV’—Investor Day 3/19/24:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3m-announces-filing-form-10-150000365.html
See #msg-173870424, #msg-173870432, #msg-173870470, and #msg-173871045 for related info.
It's difficult to imagine (or justify) NVDA's MC. Sure they are going to grow, and yes the near term looks fantastic, but compared to other companies like GOOGL they looked well ahead of reality. If the estimated sales for the quarter are accurate at $20B they are running at a $100B + annual rate. Can sales growth continue to at the current rate? Would you buy shares of NVDA over GOOGL today? Will NVDA be the unchallenged MSFT of AI processors?
BYD’s New $11,000 Plug-in Hybrid Sedan Crushes VW Lavida, Toyota Corolla Prices
https://www.carscoops.com/2024/02/byd-launches-11000-qin-plus-dm-i-phev-in-china/
They're setting the industry standard. All their competitors are way behind their ability to design and build a wide cross section of cars for every market segment. The only segment they haven't addressed are pickups. But pickups aren't as popular outside the USA.
The infrastructure Bill would kill him. It's just not feasible. Rolling blackouts in poor neighborhoods is a shame, but blackouts in wealthy neighborhoods will be unacceptable.
It would be like building all the roads all over again in the U.S.
Looks like panic is on the rise in the EV industry. Realization that legacy manufacturers are years behind with no real chance to catch up. Pile on government mandates and the future for them looks bleak.
The Big Miss on Electric Cars Is Remaking Europe’s Auto Industry
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/europe-being-forced-reboot-car-050013872.html
In a world where people are crafting whatever "factual" baseline they choose to support their intellectual position, it is nice to see the difference in presentation as nuance.
WSJ points out the actual growth forecast in LNG demand from China, and Bloomberg points out that the forecast has reduced from prior indications due to decarbonization efforts. The positions reflect editorial positioning (bias?), but get the underlying facts correct.
Thank you for sharing your comments. I learn something new everytime I log in as well.
jbog - Your explanation is better than mine! (I'm afraid you've awoken long dormant brain cells associated with taking physical chemistry and material science in college that used to cause me to have nightmares.) Hopefully no one will use steel wool on their Cybertruck to get out any rust that does appear!
I didn't know that the rust/corrosion resistance of SST came mostly from passivation and only partly from the grade. (My only experience with passivation is that it was something to have an instrument tech do to a "leaky valve seat"- now I understand why and that is really good info to me).
I don't know either why Tesla cold rolled whatever grade of SST they start with to get more strength and importantly rigidity. As I understand it, the design precludes the use of crumple zones which have historically been needed to attain a 5-star safety rating. The National Highway Transportation Safety Administration (NHTSA), and the Insurance Institute of Highway Safety (IIHS) hasn't tested the Cybertruck because there haven't been that many made or in circulation. I wonder what rating it would get if they did test it. (Automakers do need to do internal test to assure meeting federal minimum standards but that doesn't mean you would get a "5-star" rating from NHTSA/IIHS.) It would be another blow to the Cybertruck mystique if it got less than a 5-star rating.
BYD busy pounding the competition........
BYD launches $15,000 Qin Plus EV Honor Edition kicking off price war with gas cars
https://electrek.co/2024/02/19/byd-launches-15k-qin-plus-ev-kicking-off-price-war-gas-cars/
Correction:
Comparing today's auto's the standard material would be 1 mm thick, 1.5lbs sf while Tesla's Stainless is 3 mm thick, 4.5 lbs sf.
I previously said 1mm
Mufaso,
You did a great job on your explanation. For the last 52 years I built a company that solely builds systems for the Food and Pharma Industries Worldwide. We use somewhere in the area of 260,000 lbs. of ,Stainless per month building Vessels, Tanks or Systems.
What I have understood so far is that Tesla is using 301 SS which is close to the lowest grade available (we wouldn't allow that in our facility)which is cold rolled. To understand, Cold Roll is actually a Hot Rolled product that has been formed xxx. thousands thicker than specs, them allowed to reach room temperature a finally is squeezed to it's final dimensions. To Compare DeLorean used 304L and Autocar Trucks used 302. The final rolling will actually create a denser material.
Why Tesla is doing that is beyond me. Comparing today's auto's the standard material would be 1 mm thick, 1.5lbs sf while Tesla's Stainless is 1 mm thick, 4.5 lbs sf. This vehicle is a rock. Secondly, because of the cold rolling this metal doesn't want to be formed, that's why the truck looks so different, only straight lines by bending, not forming. No contours or flairs, only straight lines. 301 SS is austenitic as made but when bent it'll get much closer to Martensitic because of the micro structure change. I anyone ever gets a chance a magnet will not stick to the straight panels but will adhere to the bend lines.
Now getting to rust. Every metal will oxidize in the atmosphere. With Steel we would observe 'rust' if it weren't painted etc, Stainless Steel also creates a invisible 'passive' coating which protects itself. The problem comes that when the passive coating is scratched off, it any free iron is in the atmosphere the spot will rust, no matter which Stainless is picked, After any work, production etc of Stainless it needs to be passivated in a Nitric Acid solution which dissolves the existing passive layer along with any free iron near the surface. This Solution is then rinsed off with distilled water and the item is in a protected area for 18 hours while a new film is created.
As a warning, if you want to clean your stove top, if use get steel wool or a steel wire brush near it your toast. You can use a Stainless brush or wool all you want. Same thing with sandpaper, no carbon elements.
'
Yup...are they also, "crash proof".....too?
Yes, and when your auto pilot fails, hey, you've got a bullet proof truck.
Politicians formulate policies based upon...well...politics. They don't understand, or probably care, that mandating without understanding the problems of meeting those mandates are monumental and unachievable as outlined. The timeline was always impossible to make, by 10-15 years, so they flounder around wasting money, glad slapping each other on the back, while in this case China, Korea, Japan, Australia, Chile, Argentina actually advance the production and technology. The USA and europe just fall further behind. There's a reason Musk fears BYD as he and the other major car brands should. By the end of 2025 BYD will be the uncontested leader in EV and hybrid production, and in the top three of battery production worldwide.
I appreciate your knowledge on this. Thanks for sharing it. I learn something new on these boards every time I log in.
U-TURN?: Biden admin throws electric vehicle mandate in reverse.
I would think American Rare Earths is the better play versus TMC.
Their holdings include a slug of Wyoming State Acreage that should see expedited permitting versus federal lands (which include offshore seabeds, yes?). If the Supreme Court strikes down most of the Federal agency regulatory authority as expected, this could change. Environmental protections are way too complex for Congress to spell out in passed laws, yet that's what conservative jurists are demanding.
The bottleneck for rare earths is domestic processing capacity. An inherently dirty business. I have not done a deep dive into progress made on this front.
But very exciting news from both a national security and clean tech perspective!
Investment worthy? Hard to say. Speculative for sure...
Waymo - first driverless robotaxi I've witnessed at SF fisherman's wharf. Quite impressive actually. Noticed while walking towards a restaurant at the wharf. Robocar was going around a tourist bus that was stopped and used the lane going in the opposite direction. I assumed it was manned as it did this quite naturally with pedestrians all around. It gingerly passed the parked bus before I realized it was driverless. It went on to park at a safer spot where a couple caught up to it (walking) and got in the back seats. Impressive for an area that is busy with cars and pedestrians. It looks like the typical Waymo modified Jaguar CUV. Both Waymo and Toyota Research are testing with drivers in Mountain View area. Toyota's version is Lexus of course.
n4807g, Thanks, TMC looks interesting, though some dicey aspects for sure -
>>> Clarion Clipperton Zone of the Pacific Ocean regulated by the International Seabed Authority and sponsored by the governments of Nauru, Kiribati and the Kingdom of Tonga <<<
>>> TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) , a deep-sea minerals exploration company, focuses on the collection, processing, and refining of polymetallic nodules found on the seafloor in the Clarion Clipperton Zone (CCZ) in the south-west of San Diego, California. It primarily explores for nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese products. The company holds exploration and commercial rights in three polymetallic nodule contract areas in the CCZ of the Pacific Ocean. Its products are used in electric vehicles (EV), renewable energy storage markets, EV wiring, clean energy transmission, manganese alloy production required for steel production, and other applications. The company was formerly known as Sustainable Opportunities Acquisition Corporation and changed its name to TMC the metals company Inc. TMC the metals company Inc. was incorporated in 2019 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.
<<<
The Metals Company (TMC) - >>> Pentagon to Deliver Report on Domestic Processing of Seafloor Nodules by March 1 as President Biden Signs NDAA
GlobeNewswire
The Metals Company
January 3, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pentagon-deliver-report-domestic-processing-133000108.html
Under the National Defense Authorization Act (FY24) now signed into law by President Biden, the House Armed Services Committee directs the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Industrial Base Policy to submit a report assessing the domestic processing of seafloor polymetallic nodules by March 1, 2024.
Last month, thirty-one Members of Congress wrote a letter to the Secretary of Defense and the Pentagon urging the Department of Defense to “explore every avenue to strengthen our rare earth and critical mineral supply chains”, emphasizing “the importance of evaluating and planning for seabed mining as a new vector of competition...”.
The news comes as American and allied auto and battery makers struggle to secure supplies of critical battery metals that comply with guidelines for incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act.
NEW YORK, Jan. 03, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- TMC the metals company Inc. (Nasdaq: TMC) (“TMC” or the “Company”), an explorer of the world’s largest estimated undeveloped source of critical battery metals, today welcomed the passage of the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) into law and the inclusion of provisions directing the Department of Defense to submit a report to the House Armed Services Committee assessing the domestic processing of seafloor polymetallic nodules by March 1, 2024.
In the language attached to the newly approved Act, the Committee acknowledged the imperative of establishing a secure supply chain of critical and strategic minerals and materials and noted, “that to meet national security requirements the United States must have the ability to source critical minerals in innovative arenas to decrease reliance on sources from foreign adversaries.” As a potential new frontier for resource extraction, the Committee directs the Pentagon to produce a report which, among other things, outlines “a roadmap recommending how the United States can have the ability to source and/or process critical minerals in innovative arenas, such as deep-sea mining.”
Through the NDAA, the House Armed Services Committee has directed the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Industrial Base Policy to submit a report to the Committee by March 1, 2024 “assessing the processing of seabed resources of polymetallic nodules domestically. The report shall include, at a minimum, the following: (1) a review of current resources and controlling parties in securing seabed resources of polymetallic nodules; (2) an assessment of current domestic deep-sea mining and material processing capabilities; and (3) a roadmap recommending how the United States can have the ability to source and/or process critical minerals in innovative arenas, such as deep-sea mining, to decrease reliance on sources from foreign adversaries and bolster domestic competencies.”
In November 2023, a bipartisan coalition led by Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) re-introduced a resolution calling on the U.S. Senate to ratify the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), arguing that “the longer we sit out, the longer the rest of the world will continue to set the agenda of maritime domain, from seabed mining to critical subsea infrastructure.” That same month, five Members of the US House of Representatives from Texas urged the Department of Defense to support the use of federal resources under the NDAA towards TMC’s feasibility study for nodule processing along the Texas Gulf Coast. In a letter to the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Industrial Base Policy, Laura D. Taylor-Kale, the Members wrote: “The applicant seems to have the ability to produce battery-grade materials at commercial facilities in North America at pilot scale. The scope of the submission focuses solely on U.S. processing and appears to offer the Department of Defense the opportunity to re-shore critical mineral supply lines.”
Over recent years, TMC has welcomed letters from congressional leaders including the House Armed Services Committee as well as former military leaders urging the Biden Administration to assess domestic processing of seafloor polymetallic nodules as a means to secure key energy transition metals and “close national security vulnerabilities.” In March last year, TMC Chairman and CEO Gerard Barron wrote to the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, noting, “Support from the U.S. Government for the development of the polymetallic nodule resource and TMC’s first project, NORI-D, would unlock access to the resource without overcoming legislative hurdles to ratify the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.”
About The Metals Company
The Metals Company is an explorer of lower-impact battery metals from seafloor polymetallic nodules, on a dual mission: (1) supply metals for the global energy transition with the least possible negative impacts on planet and people and (2) trace, recover and recycle the metals we supply to help create a metals commons that can be used in perpetuity. The Company through its subsidiaries holds exploration and commercial rights to three polymetallic nodule contract areas in the Clarion Clipperton Zone of the Pacific Ocean regulated by the International Seabed Authority and sponsored by the governments of Nauru, Kiribati and the Kingdom of Tonga.
<<<
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Yes....but as I mentioned in my post you responded to, it may be years or a decade before any mining takes place. Unless there are changes in the way permits are vetted and approved, an eye watering deposit of minerals is only a teaser. You can look around the USA and find many examples of very promising mineral deposits that companies are in the process of developing that are many years in without a $1 to show for their effort. I look at producing miners and fully permitted soon to be producing for opportunities.
If you are interested in miners you might take a look at TMC. The defense department is due to release a study on deep sea mineral mining on March 1st outlining:
Wyoming, not Wisconsin.
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In many nations, a middle class is emerging for the first time in history.
Companies who satisfy the demands of these consumers in a sustainable manner should have bright prospects.
The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence is a forum for investment ideas based on this premise.
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