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Fun with dead Tesla batteries in the freezing Midwest.
Elon's Tesla robot is sort of 'ok' at folding laundry in pre-scripted demo
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elons-tesla-robot-sort-ok-192723718.html
LOL........I thought by now the Bot would be assembling a Swiss watch after all the hype. Maybe it will be able to fry an egg in 10 years.
First Quantum Is Halting Its Dividend and Selling Mines Amid Panama Woes
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/first-quantum-cut-spending-sell-221357171.html
3M earplug settlement gets 100% buy-in from pre-existing plaintiffs in class action:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/combat-arms-earplug-settlement-achieves-114500350.html
See #msg-172712175 for background info.
BYD @ 79B MC, Tesla @ 695B MC. BYD leader in all EV sales and sells hybrids. BYD building more battery capacity, and also building new assembly plants in three countries. BYD will unveil their self driving tech this month. Seems to be a mismatch in market capitalization.
With carmakers in a ‘state of shock’ over Tesla-beating BYD’s prices, EU investigators will visit China’s EV giants as part of an anti-subsidy probe
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carmakers-state-shock-over-tesla-211359069.html
It's inevitable....Toyota and BYD will be the dominant car manufacturers going forward
When I went to LA last summer Hertz didn't have an ICE option at a reasonable daily rate but the Teslas were under $100 a day. It was clear that the demand was not close to the supply of EVs available. As I said then, the quoted range is a fantasy. You're lucky if you get 50% driving normally.
I am waiting for a sporty EV with flames painted on the sides, then I'll buy one.
December PPI data…
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm
PPI: -0.1% MoM; +1.0% YoY
Core* PPI: +0.2% MoM; +2.5% YoY
See link above for further details.
*Excludes food, energy, and trade services.
EU targets to suffer as consumers shun used electric vehicles
Quote:
The majority of European drivers purchasing a used car are foregoing second-hand electric vehicles (EVs) in favour of their combustion engine equivalent, car dealers suggest - a development set to undermine the EU goal of cutting road transport emissions.
https://www.disclose.tv/id/o7yz2tm56n/
Indeed.....the much hyped EV revolution in the USA looks to be a flop. Oversold..by just a bit. All those absurd prognostications about EV dominance by 2035 just tossed fuel on the hype fire. Unfortunately the only country that appears to be having some success in the EV space is China. Here's an easy prediction; in a few years China will far outpace all competitors in EV exports, and establishment of EV production facilities in other countries. It's not a stretch to say that the once dominant US automobile industry will lag behind China, Japan and perhaps S. Korea.
Hertz to sell 20,000 electric vehicles, take $245M charge
Hertz said it has made the strategic decision to sell approximately 20,000 electric vehicles from its U.S. fleet, or about one-third of the global EV fleet. These vehicle dispositions, which were initiated in December 2023 and are expected to take place in an orderly fashion over the course of 2024, will cover multiple makes and models.
The company expects to reinvest a portion of the proceeds from the sale of EVs into the purchase of internal combustion engine vehicles to meet customer demand. The company's decision to reduce its EV fleet will result in the recognition, during Q4, of approximately $245M of incremental net depreciation expense related to the sale. The non-cash charge represents the write down of the EVs' carrying values as of December 31, 2023 to their fair values, less related expenses associated with the disposition of the vehicles. This charge is in addition to the depreciation expense that the company will report for Q4 in the ordinary course with respect to the remainder of its fleet. Hertz does not expect this EV fleet reduction and the corresponding addition of ICE vehicles to have a material impact on its asset-backed securitization facilities.
Read more at:
https://thefly.com/n.php?id=3843022
It's an early Spring. Tulips are blooming.
CLEVELAND, January 03, 2024--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE: CLF) today announced that it is increasing current spot market base prices for all carbon hot rolled, cold rolled and coated steel products, effective immediately with all new orders. Cliffs’ minimum base price for hot rolled steel is now $1,150 per net ton.
In the past week the price has dropped to $900.
Go figure
CVX doesn't have an issue with foreign exchange since they can export the oil and I think logistics is the bottleneck for ramping more aggressively since it's remote.
Apparently engineering.
What else didn't get properly installed on Boeing planes?
Samsung Profit Tumbles 35% as Chip Weakness Persists
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/samsung-profit-tumbles-35-chip-234553262.html
Proverbial Canary in the coal mine?
Subsidence is an interesting and troubling problem. There was subsidence in New York when well over over a mile of glacier covered it 20,000+ years ago. Since then NYC has been rising until we started building massive concrete and steel buildings. Now NYC is subsiding again as if there's a huge glacier covering it and unfortunately for New Yorkers, this "glacial maximum" isn't coming at a time when sea level is some 300 feet lower. And as luck would have it, the ocean is also rising more quickly on the US east coast than the west.
At the end of last summer we were waiting for a home remodel to finish so we could move in. We decided to spend a couple of weeks at the beach in Delaware. Most people go to Rehoboth, including our kids but we decided it's neighbor, Lewes, (generally pronounced Louis), looked like a better fit for us. It was an amazing vacation. It feels like everyone is working to make this place better than it already is. Unfortunately, it really is in the middle of nowhere at the mouth of the Delaware Bay. And that's their problem, As sea level continues to rise more quickly, no one will care about Lewes, DE. Like hundreds of wonderful but small seashore cities along the east coast they will simply cease to exist in any meaningful way.
When I retired we spent about 18 months cruising from Annapolis down to mid-Florida and back. We'd intended to go to the Bahamas but Covid made trips out of the US almost impossible. When we got to NSB FL, we decided to spend the winter. We also spent a week or so in a couple of dozen great little towns along the way. I don't think one of them will be thriving by the end of the Century. I'm much more concerned that we'll be losing these small cultural enclaves than NYC.
One other quick note. There is a small island in the Chesapeake Bay named Tangier. There are less than 1,000 people living there and many of the families have lived there since it was settled in 1770. Since then Tangier's land mass has decreased by 2/3s and it will be gone in another 30 years. Here's a good video regarding their issues.
SUBSIDENCE RISK ON THE U.S. EAST COAST
https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/satellite-images-reveal-just-how-much-cities-on-the-us-east-coast-are-sinking
Arcadium Lithium Announces Completion of Merger of Equals between Allkem and Livent
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/arcadium-lithium-announces-completion-of-merger-of-equals-between-allkem-and-livent-302026354.html
CLF adds private-equity executive to BoD:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cleveland-cliffs-appoints-ron-bloom-181700211.html
With price of Spodumene continuing to slide have decided to sell most of my remaining PILBF. I expect the 1st half of 2024 (and maybe beyond) to be a difficult year for battery minerals. Better to lock in profits today and look for lower prices in the 2nd half of 2024.
BYD Sure Looks Poised To Overtake Tesla In EV Sales Soon
https://insideevs.com/news/702410/byd-tesla-critical-materials/
GROY is looking really interesting in here. They have made some smart financing moves to add near term cash flows to the story and some developing mines starting/ramping production in early 2024. Royalties and profits interests will flow from these.
Chart is constructive and ripe for a breakout above $1.55. Spot gold hitting all time highs and dollar likely to lose more strength in 2024. I have added substantially to my small position in the past week.
Well that was quick. STRL has now handily surpassed its previous ATH. I guess the combination of the buyback announcement and the strong market worked to explosive effect.
ZEUS hitting new highs. Cheap on basis of this year's estimates, but next year's estimates much lower. Market still expecting a slow down, but not as much, I guess.
Goodbye Petrodollar - >>> How Xi Jinping is challenging dollar dominance with landmark Saudi deal
The Telegraph
by Melissa Lawford
December 24, 2023
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/xi-jinping-challenging-dollar-dominance-120000057.html
When Xi Jinping visited Riyadh, Saudi officials rolled out not a red but a purple carpet.
The Chinese president’s plane was escorted by Saudi jets spurting green and white smoke to symbolise the colours on the Gulf nation’s flag. Celebratory cannons were fired. A royal guard on Arabian horses escorted President Xi to the Royal Palace.
The warm reception during the visit last December was symbolic of deepening ties between China and Saudi Arabia. Long one of the US’s closest allies in the Middle East, Beijing is trying to woo the Kingdom towards the East – and Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman appears open.
President Xi has ambitions to challenge the global dominance of the dollar. One way to do that would be to start trading oil and gas in renminbi.
Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude oil exporter, has traded oil entirely in dollars since 1974. But talks about pricing sales to China, Saudi’s largest trading partner, in renminbi have been accelerating. In November, China made a breakthrough.
China and Saudi Arabia signed an agreement to set up a currency swap line worth 50bn yuan (£5.5bn). The landmark deal means Saudi Arabia has free access to a supply of Chinese currency at a set exchange rate, and vice versa for Beijing and the Saudi riyal.
Swap lines in themselves are uncontroversial. China has one with the UK, and the deal with Saudi Arabia is small in scale, worth only a fraction of Saudi Arabia’s total trade with China. But the deal is a significant turning point.
If China’s oil and gas trade operates in renminbi, it will be outside the Western financial system and effectively unsanctionable.
Establishing the framework of a swap deal also allows it to be scaled up relatively easily. While 50bn yuan is small, the total size may well grow.
“It’s mostly a signal that Saudi is willing to use renminbi,” says Alicia Garci´a-Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at French investment bank Natixis and a senior fellow at European think tank Bruegel.
Saudi Arabia is under pressure to accept the renminbi because Russia, China’s largest oil trading partner, already does.
The idea of China seriously challenging the dollar’s dominance has been dismissed by many economists as far-fetched. The dollar is still in a different league globally because such a large share of public and private debt worldwide is held in dollars.
The US currency is used in nearly half of all payments worldwide, while the renminbi is used in less than 4pc, according to Swift data. The dollar is freely convertible, the renminbi is not and China has restrictions on capital flows.
But the number of transactions involving the renminbi is rising at breakneck speed. In the last three years, global use of the Chinese currency in trade finance has tripled. In September, it overtook the euro as the second-most used currency in global trade. Data from the People’s Bank of China shows that, globally, central banks’ use of Chinese swap lines has roughly quadrupled since 2020.
“It is making exponential gains in the share of trade finance,” says Phyllis Papadavid, senior research advisor at Asia House. “It is making gains in its use as a reserve currency. The overall share is still quite low, but the trajectory is very rapid.”
In several decades’ time, it is feasible that the renminbi could challenge the dollar, says Julia Gurol-Haller, lecturer at the Chair for International Relations at Freiburg University.
“I think in the very, very long run this could be something that manifests.”
In the more immediate future, China may be able to protect its energy security as tension with the US intensifies.
“It takes the dollar out of the loop,” says Christopher Vassallo, a researcher at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis. “If China wants to pay Saudi Arabia for a certain amount of oil imports, they can use their currency.”
This has become a mounting concern for Beijing since the onset of the war in Ukraine.
“Beijing watched Washington impose sanctions on Russia’s dollar reserves that simply made the dollar not useful for Russia,” Vassallo says.
President Xi is more vulnerable to financial sanctions than Vladimir Putin because China’s economy is much more dependent on imports and exports. Boosting renminbi trade with allies helps to insulate China from any US intervention.
“In the short-term, it’s about the security of energy needs,” says Gurol-Haller.
The lynchpin of this strategy is the Middle East – and Saudi Arabia knows it.
“I was in Riyadh when the war broke out in Ukraine and you could immediately see this new self-consciousness rising, this sense that this is our moment,” says Gurol-Haller. “Countries in the region realised they can leverage relations with other big players in a different way.”
Before the war, Saudi Arabia operated a hedging strategy of keeping both the US and China in balance, says Gurol-Haller. “Since February 2022, we have seen quite a pivotal shift towards China as an economic partner.”
China is the number-one destination for Saudi exports by value and the Kingdom is China’s second-largest oil supplier, after Russia.
In addition to oil, the two nations have deepened their ties in the tech and science sectors, and Saudi Arabia is turning towards China for security.
In March, China brokered a reconciliation deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, leaving the US on the sidelines.
“That shows that China is no longer viewed by regional players as just an economic partner but also as a rising political or security force,” says Gurol-Haller. “That is a paradigm shift.”
In the same month, Saudi Arabia agreed to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, a security union that includes China and India. This summer, Saudi Arabia was invited to join the Brics alliance of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
Brics members have been discussing how to make a common currency that can be used in emerging markets.
Gurol-Haller says: “It is discussed so much among this growing, non-Western or anti-US, bloc. It is the finance side to a larger geopolitical phenomenon, which is to reduce dependency from the United States in terms of security and the economy, and then also in terms of currency.”
The next step for China and Saudi Arabia could be potential stock exchange partnerships. In February, Hong Kong chief executive John Lee travelled to Saudi Arabia in a bid to encourage the national oil giant, Saudi Aramco, to pursue a secondary listing in Hong Kong.
“The overall momentum of this building of an anti-Western bloc will create geopolitical implications for the US,” says Gurol-Haller. “In the Middle East, we already see a diminishing role of the US. That is exactly the phenomenon that such swap lines make stronger.”
While dollar dominance persists for now, the Beijing-Riyadh alliance shows its primacy will not continue unchallenged.
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n4807g, board, Thanks. I was also curious about your thoughts on the nuclear power sector in general, and more specifically the new SNR / small nuclear reactors technologies, High-Assay, Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU), etc. Lots of promise, but also a zillion different countervailing aspects, including the fear of nuclear proliferation. Part of the attraction of joining BRICS is that China and Russia are helping smaller countries build nuclear power plants, and this pressures the US/West to get into the game to stay competitive, in spite of the proliferation risks. Separately, the US clearly needs to re-establish its own domestic enrichment capabilities since most of this is now done in Russia.
Anyway, a complex topic, but thanks for any insights. I've been mainly following Centrus (LEU) and various ETFs (NLR, URA, URNM), but no current positions. With nuclear, one obvious concern is what happens if a nuclear plant in the world is attacked (war, terrorism, etc), thus showing how vulnerable they are and how potentially devastating to a country that adopts nuclear power. The Zaporizhzhia in Ukraine, or the Bushehr plant in Iran, would be obvious targets, but an attack on a nuclear plant anywhere in the world would be enough to 'poison the well' for nuclear power, and put the kibosh on the global resurgence of interest in nuclear.
>>> Centrus Makes First HALEU Delivery to U.S. Department of Energy <<<
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173255110
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yeah....EV tech has been over hyped, time for a reset.
Yes the solid state batteries solve this problem and may eventually replace wet battery technology. There are a lot of negative aspects of today's EV's....initial cost, battery replacement cost, insurance cost, repair issues, low resale value, minor accident - totaled car. Bottom line, a lot of improvement in many areas is required for mainstream adoption.
There are a significant number of companies working on solid state batteries. I try to read updates on as many as I can and each claim to have their sights on commercialization. I find it difficult to handicap winners and losers. QS has the potential, but they don't have a commercial product yet so I wait and watch. I think 2024 might be the year there is better clarity on which companies are in the lead.
One aspect to EVs that is being downplayed is the risk of severe fires and explosions from the current liquid lithium batteries (video below). The solid state battery technology can eliminate this fire problem. Currently these EV battery fires burn for hours at close to 5000 degrees, and can be nearly impossible to put out, and can even burn your house down if the car is kept in the garage -
Full article - >>> Toyota’s Rival In Solid-State EV Development Is A Supplier: Schaeffler
Schaeffler and Honda are already close partners. Wouldn’t all-solid-state make a nifty battery pack for a new Acura NSX?
AutoWeek
by Todd Lassa
DEC 21, 2023
https://www.autoweek.com/news/a46192062/solid-state-ev-battery-development-toyota-schaeffler/
At the upcoming CES 2024, supplier Schaeffler Americas will display a “next-generation” all-solid-state EV battery.
Solid-state advantages include 40% better energy density than existing battery technologies, as well as much longer range, and no need for rare materials like cobalt to be mined in China or The Congo.
A Schaeffler executive says the supplier already has a customer for its solid-state technology, but he declined to name the automaker.
A well-established supplier, little known to most enthusiasts, is in the running to become a pioneer in solid-state battery EV technology. Schaeffler Group, founded in Germany in 1946, is known to the auto industry—which constitutes 60% of its business—primarily for bearings.
It returns to CES in January after a four-year absence to show a new electric beam axle for pickup trucks and a new rear-steering system. The company wants 45% of its manufacturing output in 2030 to be products that did not exist in 2020.
But the prototype Schaeffler Americas will show at CES 2024 that caught our attention is what its chief technology officer, Jeff Hemphill, described as a “next-generation” all-solid-state EV battery.
The OEM that appears to be the most active in solid-state development is Toyota, the hybrid pioneer considered behind the competition in battery-electric vehicles. But others are working on solid-state batteries as well, including Honda, Nissan, Ford, BMW, Volkswagen, and Mercedes-Benz.
For more detail on the Tier 1 supplier’s solid-state work, we spoke with Rashid Farahati, director of engineering for Schaeffler Americas. Schaeffler’s solid-state battery at CES is made with prototype parts encased in a pack built by another company that specializes in making small samples on the lab scale. It’s installed in a show vehicle, Farahati said.
“We have manufacturing skill and we have (parts) coating skill,” Farahati said, so the company will not even dabble in lithium-ion. “Solid-state, electrolyte, is best for Schaeffler.”
At the outset, solid-state will pencil out for expensive, high-end sports cars and luxury cars.
Despite speculation that Honda, a close partner of Schaeffler, will have a mainstream model solid-state EV on the market next year, Farahati says Schaeffler’s solid-state battery won’t be production ready until late in this decade.
Solid-state advantages include 40% better energy density than existing battery technologies, as well as much longer range, no need for rare materials like cobalt to be mined in China or The Congo, and no necessary flammable liquids inside.
So why even consider an EV with a lithium-ion battery pack? Won’t solid-state kill off that technology? Cost, it turns out, is not an advantage for solid-state.
“For now, we’re not talking about cost,” Farahati says. “I believe solid-state is not replacing lithium-ion anytime soon.”
The market is “very complicated,” he adds. For several years at the outset, solid-state will pencil out for expensive, high-end sports cars and luxury cars. Give it several years—well into the ‘30s at least—after Schaeffler’s production release before solid-state can find its way into “affordable” electric vehicles.
Farahati allowed that Schaeffler already has a customer for its solid-state technology, but he declined to name the automaker.
But wouldn’t a new, all-solid-state electric Acura NSX be nifty?
At the Monterey Car Week last August, The Drive quoted Honda executives who said the company would launch an EV in 2024 with a solid-state battery that would weigh half as much as a similar-size lithium-ion battery.
This autumn, family-controlled Schaeffler acquired the drive-technology company Vitesco Technologies, a Continental AG spinoff, for $3.8 billion, according to US News & World Report. Together, they plan to open a manufacturing plant in Ohio.
Meanwhile in Columbus, Honda and Schaeffler will partner with Ohio State University and the Institute for Materials and Manufacturing Research to repurpose a 25,000-square-foot facility into a $22 million battery cell lab and research center, scheduled to open in April 2025.
It will be able to build a full solid-state battery cell in small, prototype numbers, Farahati said.
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>> plenty of horses in the race <<
Just curious where you think QuantumScape might fit into the solid state battery mix? Thanks.
>>> Forget Tesla: 1 EV Stock That Could Make You Rich
by Daniel Miller
The Motley Fool
December 23, 2023
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/forget-tesla-1-ev-stock-113500008.html
Investors often dream about finding the next game-changing company. Of course, finding a game-changing company set to revolutionize an industry is far easier said than done. Remember back when Tesla changed the game by essentially introducing a sports car that was battery electric powered? And Tesla did so at a time ditching fossil fuels seemed daunting -- and that's putting it lightly. Those high-flying and wild days might be behind Tesla, although its story has plenty of room to run yet, but one company might be about to enter game-changing territory.
"If QuantumScape can get this technology into mass production, it holds the potential to transform the industry," said Stan Whittingham, co-inventor of the lithium-ion battery and winner of the 2019 Nobel Prize in chemistry, in a QuantumScape press release.
QuantumScape's (NYSE: QS) battery technology could be groundbreaking. At a time when electric vehicles (EVs) are positioning themselves for mass adoption, the company could be a lucrative long-term investment. Move over Tesla; QuantumScape could be the next stock to make investors rich.
QuantumScape who?
Starting with some basic background on a company you may not have heard of, QuantumScape has over 12 years of research and development investment in its battery technologies. It employs a world-class battery development team comprising over 800 employees and owns over 300 patents and patent applications.
QuantumScape has also caught the eye of major global automakers during its journey. It has contracts with six automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), including Volkswagen, a key partner and investor, and two other top 10 OEMs, two established global luxury OEMs, and a pure-play EV company.
Encouraging results
To simplify a somewhat complicated story, QuantumScape's battery technology improves the process by simplifying the cell design. It eliminates the need for graphite, silicon, or lithium foil, enabling the battery to increase energy density and improve range while boasting 15-minute fast charging.
More specifically, QuantumScape's batteries could recharge from zero to 80% of capacity in about half the time most lithium-ion EV batteries require. An EV using QuantumScape's batteries could extend its range by roughly 80% with similar weight. Essentially, the potential groundbreaking battery technology could improve on nearly every aspect of the status quo.
At the end of 2022, QuantumScape shipped its first A0 prototype cells to potential customers for a proof-of-concept. Its top-performing AO prototype cell in one potential customer's battery testing labs achieved over 1,000 full-cycle equivalents with over 95% discharge energy retention. While management reiterated this was a cherry-picked high-end result and that there's much work to do regarding reliability, it's an extraordinary result and well above its commercial target of 800 cycles and 80% energy retention.
High upside
Huge, obvious risks come with investing in a preproduction company. The blunt truth is that no company has done what QuantumScape is trying to achieve, and the company, despite its recent encouraging test results, could ultimately fail to produce its technology entirely or as reliably as required to transform the industry.
However, QuantumScape has spent much of 2023 attempting to move from prototype to product, and the company has a cash runway that extends into 2026, with the ability to potentially raise more funds if necessary.
If QuantumScape does accomplish its targets and reaches production with a next-generation EV battery, its opportunity is massive. Consider that battery electric vehicles (BEV) only recently hit about 10% of the global light-vehicle market, and management believes the opportunity could potentially be hundreds of billions of dollars annually for decades.
Time to buy?
For all of its massive upside, there are the aforementioned risks investors take when investing in a preproduction company. QuantumScape is still a few years away from mass-producing its batteries, and the process of going from a successful prototype to a mass-production battery has been slow -- a speed Wall Street isn't fond of.
QuantumScape isn't an investment for everyone; it's not for the risk-averse or faint of heart. But a small position in QuantumScape has incredible upside after shedding nearly 70% of its value since its initial public offering. If the company gets to mass production and carves out its slice of a massive target-market pie, it could easily drive not only global electric vehicles but also your entire portfolio.
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They need a way to recycle EV batteries, rather the have big junk piles and how long before lithium runs out?
Sold state sounds better anyway.
15 minute cities, sounds like a winner?
Cars run on small nuclear units?
More hydro.
Less population, lifespan has been decreased since COVID and Covid vaccines came out.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/covid-helped-cause-the-biggest-drop-in-u-s-life-expectancy-since-wwii
All the above we read about here and there.
Toss this article in the solid state mix. From a cost perspective versus current tech, he doesn't sound very optimistic in the near term (upon initial commercialization)
https://www.autoweek.com/news/a46192062/solid-state-ev-battery-development-toyota-schaeffler/
There are plenty of horses in the race......
I spend a lot of time watching the various solid state developers for news but don't currently have any positions. I am watching Toyota, intrigued by their battery claim. Investing in Toyota makes sense; you basically get the possible battery breakthrough at essentially zero risk. Couple that with their hybrid options and ICE offerings keeping the company profitable until they eventually (?????) deploy their new battery tech provides a less risky option. Picking a winner in the pure solid state crowd is much more difficult.
Note: Toyota looks like the savviest of the bunch for their position that pure EV adoption was premature. Hybrids are the market segment that's currently sustainable. If they do delivery on their claim, assuming cost is competitive they look like a winner. Now they have to deliver on the battery tech. (no small feat)
Thanks. Nice going with Pilbara. Any ideas on investments in the emerging solid state lithium battery sector? It sounds like a game changing technology that could eliminate the fire and explosion hazards with EVs. Looks like Toyota is aiming for 2027 (article below).
In the semiconductor sector, using the ETF does seem like a good idea. I had some SOXX for a while this year, along with modest positions in AVGO, KLAC, and several others. But most everything is overbought, so I can see the logic in your preference for the safe 4-5% interest route. Thanks for sharing your insights :o)
>>> Toyota Lays Out Its EV Battery Road Map, Including a Solid-State Battery (Eventually)
Toyota has been very late to the EV party, but now the automaker is unmistakably looking to dominate.
Car and Driver Magazine
BY MIKE DUFF
NOV 26, 2023
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a45942785/toyota-future-ev-battery-plans/
The Japanese brand was late to the EV party but plans a dramatic expansion in models and innovative battery technology; it's planning to sell 3.5 million EVs annually across 30 different Toyota and Lexus model lines by 2030.
Long-range battery packs will provide up to 500 miles of range by 2026 and 620 miles by 2027.
Toyota is aiming to introduce solid-state batteries in 2027, which will be capable of ultra-fast 10 minute recharge times from 10 to 80 percent state of charge.
Toyota recently announced it had passed the benchmark of having built more than 300 million cars since the company was founded 88 years ago. But despite having pioneered hybrid powertrains, the company's high-level skepticism towards EVs means that very few of those cars have been fully electric; the Toyota bZ4X and Lexus RZ450e have only gone on sale in the last year. It is one of the last major automakers to enter the EV space.
But following the arrival of new CEO Koji Sato, Toyota has dramatically increased its commitment to electrics, with the aim being to catch rivals with a wave of new models and innovative battery technology.
One of the first new EVs will be a three-row SUV (pictured above) that is set to be produced at Toyota's Georgetown, Kentucky, plant from 2025, and which will be aimed at the same part of the market as the Kia EV9. Toyota says this new model will use batteries produced in its own factory in Liberty, North Carolina, a plant that already employs 2000 people but is set to increase to 5000.
By 2030 Toyota says it will be able to make 30 GWh of batteries in North Carolina each year, enough for 375,000 80.0-kWh packs, but with production split across 10 different lines to produce different-sized packs for EV and plug-in-hybrid models. There will be four other lines making straight hybrid packs, and we can safely bet that the vast majority of Toyota production, and possibly all of it, will be hybridized by then.
Toyota says it is committed to making 3.5 million EVs annually by 2030, with 30 different models across Toyota and Lexus brands. It is clear a significant number of those will be produced in the States.
Toyota's battery technology is also going to develop quickly, with more details shared during a recent visit C/D made to Toyota's Shimoyama engineering center in Japan. The first evolution will be the one promised by the Toyota FT-Se and Lexus LF-ZC concepts that were shown at this year's Tokyo auto show: an ultra-compact high-performance next-generation lithium-ion battery that will be able to sit under the floors of coupes and sedans without adding excessive height. In their lowest configuration, Toyota engineers say that the battery pack will be just 3.9 inches tall, something made possible in part by side-mounted rather than top-mounted terminals.
Fast-Charging, 400-Mile Batteries . . .
This performance pack will first be used in 2026, with Toyota saying it will be 20 percent cheaper to produce than the bZ4X's pack, but also that it will allow a 10 to 80 percent fast-charge time of around 20 minutes. (The engineers we spoke to also suggested it will have a 900-volt architecture.) In its largest configuration, and in the most efficient vehicle, this performance pack will give over 400 miles of EPA range. (All range figures in the above image are quoted assuming the more generous WLTP standard, but EPA range figures are typically about 15 percent lower, so we've adjusted Toyota's claims downward accordingly to make them comparable to those of other EVs sold in the U.S.)
. . . and Cheaper, Space-Efficient Batteries
A cheaper next-generation pack will follow shortly afterward that's intended for lower-cost models and using lithium-iron-phosphate battery (LFP) chemistry as well as an innovative bipolar internal design. While a conventional monopolar battery uses separate cathode and anode elements, bipolar combines cathode and anode on a specially designed current collector, making it more space-efficient and allowing greater energy density. Toyota says this first bipolar pack will be 40 percent cheaper than the bX4X's battery and have around a 30-minute fast-charge speed, providing about 315 miles of range in its biggest configuration.
A high-performance bipolar pack will follow in 2027, switching back to lithium-ion chemistry and a high nickel cathode, with this being the one that Toyota says will ultimately deliver on its claim of a 520-mile driving range. It will also be 10 percent cheaper than the performance battery and will have a 20-minute 10-to-80-percent recharge time under the best possible conditions.
The Eagerly Awaited Solid-State Battery (in 2027)
Beyond that, Toyota confirms plans to introduce solid-state batteries as soon as 2027, although we note that the date has already slipped from the 2025 that was being quoted last year. Solid-state batteries use solid rather than liquid electrolytes, allowing for a greater tolerance of high voltages and temperatures and improving energy density and reducing weight. The challenges are complexity, cost, and the difficulty in delivering long-term durability. Toyota says its first-gen solid-state packs are targeting about 520 miles of range, with a 10-minute 10-to-80 charge capability, but also says that subsequent evolution will likely move peak range up to 630 miles. That figure that would surely be enough to persuade even the most determined EV doubter that long journeys can be accomplished electrically.
Should Toyota deliver on all these claims—and it is not a brand given to overpromising—then it will be going from the back of the pack on electrification right to the cutting edge. We certainly can’t fault the company for any lack of ambition, with the stated aim to be producing 3.5 million EVs annually across 30 different Toyota and Lexus model lines by 2030.
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I spent the first half of 2023 selling most of my individual holdings with the expectation of a substantial correction; obviously wrong. After the recent run I don't have much conviction for individual issues, I'm happy to collect interest payment and wait. I do like some miners, lithium and copper, but the recent bump in price combined with the negative opinions of near term potential keep me watching. I do still have a stake in Pilbara Minerals bought in late 2020 and early 2021. I like PKX, ALB, PILBF, FCX and SCCO, but not until they drop back below their recent lows. I do like semiconductors, but not at these elevated prices. It's a harder space for me to pick winners so I prefer using SMH. Again, there would need to be a substantial correction to make them attractive. As I age I become more willing to wait, watch and collect interest payments.
n4807g, Just curious if you could share some of your favorite longer term stock ideas?
Thanks :o)
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Maybe Optimus will fix Tesla suspension and steering?...:)
Is Optimus the newest shiny object? Almost all of Elon's tesla related predictions that propelled the company have been delayed, debunked or put off into the future. Now comes Optimus 2 with a new round of promises and predictions:
Tesla unveils Optimus Gen 2: its next generation humanoid robot
https://electrek.co/2023/12/12/tesla-unveils-optimus-gen-2-next-generation-humanoid-robot/
Ok....10 to 20 billion units, that seems a stretch
And on the setting expectations........Optimus will account for the majority of Tesla's long term value. No time line offered. Here's my prediction; you can put this in the same category as robotaxis, and full L5 capability is within our grasp. Sure, he can put them on Tesla's factory floor, helping to augment the dedicated production robots, but the next step, full human capabilities is many decades away.
Optimus will someday end poverty...............Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm..
You can have one for about $20,000.......Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm....
The hype machine lives on, rev up that PR market-cap helium machine!
Austin, we have a problem! Tesla descends into battery hell
https://www.yahoo.com/news/austin-problem-tesla-descends-battery-111607306.html
I can relate to the problem of controlling dimensional stability of wide stainless steel precision roll coating. In my factory we had a 96" wide coating machine applying a 2 mm adhesive coat on a substrate at 280 degrees F, 120 feet per minute. Controlling for thermal expansion and deflection to maintain consistent coating @ 2mm was a constant challenge. No doubt Tesla's input variables are an order or more in magnitude/complex......good luck
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In many nations, a middle class is emerging for the first time in history.
Companies who satisfy the demands of these consumers in a sustainable manner should have bright prospects.
The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence is a forum for investment ideas based on this premise.
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