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It looks like the dealers are doing anything to get these cars off the lots. My neighbor just leased a Lexus EV and Lexus has cut the lease payments by $500 a month to $450 monthly for a $65k auto.
They are also offering a combustion auto will be available for 30 days per year for use.
Too bad the Shark isn't available in the US market. BYD wins again. Great marketing piece....
DoD - project Maven. Haven't heard much since PLTR took over the project from GOOG. $480M 5 yr contract awarded yesterday.
GOOGL’s latest AI flubs (ICYMI):
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/googles-generative-ai-fails-will-slowly-erode-our-trust-in-google-202314852.html
ZBH’s new real-estate venture:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zimmer-biomet-outlines-strategy-deliver-210200055.html
Addendum—Once upon a time—(~15-20 yrs ago)—medical devices were a hot growth area. Now the sector is growing at barely more than the rate of US price inflation.
ZBH issues 2024-2027 guidance:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zimmer-biomet-outlines-strategy-deliver-210200055.html
That's consistent with one of the opinions I got on the other message board.
Eff XOM - They can pay the law firms and pound sand.
CVX/HES addendum—I asked the same question on another message board devoted to the oil/gas sector and got widely disparate answers.
More_oil-patch_consolidation—COP acquires MRO for $17.1B in_stock:
https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/conocophillips-to-acquire-marathon-oil-in-22-5b-all-stock-deal-743cc8ba
BYD knocking it out of the park
Questions for the board—Will CVX eventually have to pay XOM a cash settlement to induce XOM to allow CVX to close the HES acquisition? If yes, what is your estimate of the size of the payment?
HES shareholders approve CVX merger:
https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/hess-shareholders-greenlight-53-billion-merger-with-chevron-e82fd222
A yes vote by a majority of all shares outstanding (including abstained and non-voted shares) was required for approval.
CLF seeking_to acquire US assets_of Novolipetsk Steel, according_to_sources:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cleveland-cliffs-talks-buy-us-135133649.html
Dew
Like most scientists, I wouldn't risk my reputation rendering opinions on an emerging technology that has a long way to go to demonstrate field viability. I did not read the entire article but one thing that would concern me besides maintenance costs is that the 2nd step requires treatment using electrodes. This may look good in a lab where the electrode placement and geology are probably simplified (uniform sands or such). This might suggest that the process can be implemented in-situ.. In most settings the geology is more complex such that the 2nd step (and probably the 1st step as well) are better implemented ex-situ rather than in place. So groundwater would have to be treated by pumping it to a treatment cell where the two treatment steps would be conducted. Depending on how prolific an aquifer is, the scale up to handle a large volume of water can get expensive. Also, typically for most chemicals I've dealt with the treatment effort might have to exchange 50 to 100 times the calculated volume of contaminated pore water. This is necessary because contaminants are sorbed onto the aquifer matrix and then desorb and diffuse out of pores as the concentration gradients are reduced by the remedial action.. In the case of PFAS and PFOS I'm not sure whether this volume of treated would be greater or less. I don't recall having seen a lot of data on the Koc and Kow partitioning coefficients that might provide an Idea as to how difficult it will be to desorb PFAS/PFOS contaminants (i.e., how long a remedial effort would need to run). To be frank, I'm entering retirement and have not looked for this info. My best guess is that it will be 5 to 10 years before such pilot technologies are being proved at any scale.
This class of chemicals will have a very low maximum contaminant level (MCL) so typically more effort is required to achieve the standard. A good point of use treatment system that is small enough to fit under the sink and be maintained by the average home owner would be a huge seller. I'm sure 3M and others are working to develop such systems for water treatment plants.
Sorry about the lengthy discussions but I wanted to hit on some of the variables that will play a role in this evaluation. As I think I said before, the tendency in the business is to underestimate the time to achieve remediation goals and to underestimate final costs.
FL
>>> Scientists create earthquake-proof resin that seals rocks, heals cracks
Interesting Engineering
by Aman Tripathi
4-22-24
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/scientists-create-earthquake-proof-resin-that-seals-rocks-heals-cracks/ar-BB1mQBSz?OCID=ansmsnnews11
Researchers from Nagoya University have developed a revolutionary resin-based material that has demonstrated unprecedented capabilities in sealing cracks in rocks, even in the face of seismic activity.
This groundbreaking innovation, inspired by the natural fossilization process, holds the potential to transform various industries, from nuclear waste management to infrastructure maintenance.
Their innovation, a “concretion-forming resin,” not only seals cracks and fractures in rock but also demonstrates an unprecedented ability to self-heal after seismic events.
Inspiration from nature’s fossilization process
The resin’s ability to self-heal is particularly noteworthy, as it can potentially extend the lifespan of sealed structures and reduce the need for costly maintenance and repairs.
“I realized that well-preserved fossils in concretions had withstood weathering and the like for tens to hundreds of thousands of years in the natural environment,” said Hidekazu Yoshida, the lead researcher.
“I became inspired by studying how fast concretions were formed and why the fossils inside were preserved so well.”
The resin’s remarkable properties stem from its emulation of the natural formation of calcite concretions around organic matter, a process that has preserved fossils for millennia.
By mixing two agents that trigger rapid calcite crystal formation upon contact with water, the resin effectively fills and seals voids in rock, creating an impenetrable barrier.
Rigorous earthquake strike testing
The resin’s efficacy was rigorously tested in an underground laboratory situated 350 meters beneath Hokkaido, Japan’s northernmost island, a region renowned for its seismic activity.
Interestingly, the area experienced six earthquakes over two days during testing.
Notably, the resin maintained its seal throughout these events and exhibited a self-healing capability, resealing any cracks that formed due to the tremors.
This unparalleled resilience sets the concretion-forming resin apart from conventional cement-based sealants, which often fail to withstand such geological stresses.
“Such a fast-acting and sustained sealing effect of rock fractures, including post-earthquake crack repair, has never been reported before. Conventional cement materials cannot achieve this result,” added Yoshida.
The future of resin sealing
The implications of this innovation are far-reaching, extending beyond the safe disposal of hazardous waste and carbon dioxide.
The researchers are exploring the possibility of using the resin to seal cracks in concrete structures, which could significantly improve the durability and longevity of buildings and other infrastructure. It could be used to reinforce and stabilize tunnels and shafts in mines.
The resin will also prove invaluable in sealing abandoned oil wells, managing groundwater, and repairing aging infrastructure such as roads and buildings.
Additionally, the self-healing properties of the resin can be utilized to repair and protect ancient structures and artifacts from weathering and erosion.
To bring the resin to market, the research team is now collaborating with the Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Sekisui Chemical Co., and Chubu Electric Power Co., Ltd.
Concretions are found worldwide
Globally, remarkable fossils are often discovered encased within solid, spherical rocks known as concretions.
They are formed by the precipitation of mineral cement within the spaces between sediment particles. They are commonly found in sedimentary rocks or soil.
Earlier, Nagoya University researchers had discovered that concretions form rapidly, within months to years. The fast formation of concretions helps to quickly protect fossils.
<<<
---
The technology sounds viable for some circumstances but the injection of air (ie. Sparging) causes iron to precipitate resulting in clogging. So additional maintenance and associated costs will likely be incurred.
Regards
FL
CVX/HES—Spot check of large HES investors suggests narrow merger approval, according to Reuters:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hess-chevron-merger-vote-appears-183523839.html
HES’ shareholder vote is on 5/28/24.
Thanks, FL. Any comment on #msg-174469664?
Cleaning up PFAS (from today’s Boston Globe):
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/05/21/business/forever-chemicals-gradiant-woburn/
LLMs - Meta head of AI research talks about GIGO shortcomings and need for different approach to AGI.
https://www.ft.com/content/23fab126-f1d3-4add-a457-207a25730ad9
Here we go....
China considering car tariffs to retaliate against US and EU moves, trade group says
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3263567/china-considering-car-tariffs-retaliate-against-us-and-eu-moves-trade-group-says
America’s 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs: bad policy, worse leadership
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/05/15/americas-100-tariffs-on-chinese-evs-bad-policy-worse-leadership?utm_medium=cpc.adword.pd&utm_source=google&ppccampaignID=18200423674&ppcadID=149194366064&ppcgclID=CjwKCAjwr7ayBhAPEiwA6EIGxPQJN3w5Qk-FGvuKOJzzY8hCkTXOZaj6uMuV2Hng6hUMY-mbU2QuGRoCRfgQAvD_BwE&gad_source=1&gclsrc=ds
Stellantis CEO: electric vehicle tariffs are a trap
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/stellantis-ceo-very-tough-battle-ahead-against-chinese-rivals-2024-05-22/
China will dominate the new energy worldwide market.
Unitree G1 I'm impressed....Elon, take note of your competition.
Very well done YouTube addressing the EV conundrum for the US and EU
The "rare" minerals are not rare at all. Processing is the bottleneck. Current processes are emissions heavy and only countries (china) with low environmental/safety restrictions and enforcement have the processing capacity.
Shortage of minerals for green energy
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-world-faces-a-shortage-of-minerals-needed-for-the-energy-transition/ar-BB1myJ7g
BYD
China's BYD just unleashed a hybrid pickup truck that has no rival in America — see the Shark
https://investorshub.advfn.com/The-Rising-Influence-of-Rising-Affluence-15427
BYD to introduce new second-generation 1000km battery technology
https://www.drive.com.au/news/byd-to-introduce-new-second-gen-1000km-battery-technology/
Toyota plans using BYD’s plug-in hybrid DM-i platform to launch 3 PHEV models in 3 years in China
https://carnewschina.com/2024/05/09/toyota-plans-using-byds-plug-in-hybrid-dm-i-platform-to-launch-3-phev-models-in-3-years-in-china/
Fully integrated, BYD has no real competition across their entire product offering
3M +4% to 12m high because they cut the dividend by 54%*. Part of the reason for the cut was the spinoff of SOLV, but most of the reason for the cut was to improve the balance sheet and be better able to afford the PFAS and earplug legal liabilities that have been settled.
*The new annualized payout is $2.80, down from $6.04. At the current share price ($104.86), the new annualized payout is a yield of 2.7%.
De never broke away from the Dow until 2020 and then it was on a rip. Lets see if can continue. Right now the accelerated depreciation roll back is hurting everyone in capital equipment.
Addendum—DE is +1,300% during the past 15 years, not counting reinvested dividends.
DE reports FY2Q24* results—reduces FY2024* guidance again:
https://s22.q4cdn.com/253594569/files/doc_financials/2024/q2/DE-2Q24-News-Release.pdf
• FY2023* was a peak-cycle year for DE, so FY2024 is a down year, although still the second-best earnings year in the company's history, based on current guidance.
• FY2Q24 product sales (excluding revenue from DE’s finance unit) were $13.6B, -16% YoY, but above the Wall Street consensus figure of $1326B.
• FY1Q24 GAAP EPS was $8.53, -12% YoY, but above the Wall Street consensus figure of $7.86.
• DE lowered guidance for FY2024 net income to $7.0B (from the prior range of $7.50-7.75B three months ago and $7.75-8.25B six months ago). Based on 278M diluted shares @4/30/24, DE’s FY2024 net-income guidance equates to FY2024 GAAP EPS of $25.18, -27% relative to the actual $34.63 in FY2023.
At the current share price (~$399 as I’m typing), the FY2024 EPS guidance equates to a FY2024 P/E ratio of ~15.8x.
CC slides:
https://s22.q4cdn.com/253594569/files/doc_financials/2024/q2/DE-2Q24-Earnings-Call-Slides-Presentation.pdf
*DE’s fiscal years end on Oct 31; FY2Q24 spanned the period from 2/1/24 to 4/30/24.
CVX/HES/XOM/CNOOC -
Interesting prism for institutional investors. WHO DO YOU TRUST? John Hess v. ISS XOM/CNOOC team now with Schumer. Can't believe any politician would interject their opinion in favor of a side that includes a Chinese STATE OWNED enterprise.
That's a good question. Once upon a time it was easy to dismiss Chinese EV's as inferior, but today they are actually innovators, particularly in battery technology. One thing is for certain; if domestic producers can't build a sub $25K EV with reasonable amenities and range a large segment of buyers will be priced out. I suspect that under the tariff umbrella domestic manufacturers have little incentive to build less costly EV's. One things for sure, adoption will be slower with the tariffs.
JNJ divested its ~10% KVUE equity stake without causing a shock to KVUE’s share price:
#msg-174418709
I’m long KVUE.
Maybe. How many US buyers would have opted for Chinese EVs if there were no tariff?
The EV tariff war will undoubtedly slow adoption of EV's in the USA. The EU and USA can close their markets to lower cost imports, assuring higher cost of EV ownership for the populace.
PLTR - more chugging along with some tailwinds from AI adoption. Positive sign from Cramer in bottom link - he won't give opinion on stock because of volatile earnings and CEO declines ad nauseum to go on his show. LOL
https://investors.palantir.com/files/Palantir%20Q1%202024%20Business%20Update.pdf
The inside story of Elon Musk’s mass firings of Tesla Supercharger staff
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/inside-story-elon-musks-mass-firings-tesla-supercharger-staff-2024-05-15/
Robotaxis Observations -
Currently in SValley, what I am seeing in alpha testing are Nuro.ai Pruises and Toyota research Lexus. My feel is that TM is where Waymo was 2-3 yrs ago. Nuro is impressive if the engineers are truly hands-off. AMZN's Zoox still very much stuck from link below. TSLA was biggest Lidar module customer for Luminar in Q1 -
https://www.theverge.com/2024/5/13/24155272/amazon-zoox-robotaxi-crash-motorcyclists-rear-end
Battery Fire: 66th Floor in Queens
ISS recommends HES shareholders not vote for CVX takeover:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-iss-recommends-hess-shareholders-181535592.html
CVX was off slightly today. ISS is very influential.
3M
Dew I mostly have delt with their Industrial and Safety Group. (coated abrasive and personnel protection)
I tried to lay out a schedule over the years but with their explosion of safety masks during covid it really clouds the picture. What I can say is that in 2018 this group represented 37% of 3M;s sales at $12.3B and 5 years later in 2023 it represented 33% of sales at $10.9 B.
So not only are their group sales down but I'm sure there's at least a 20-30 price increase in their later numbers. I didn't incorporate any Russian adjustment in these numbers.
It's still a fine company but they have to get back to work.
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In many nations, a middle class is emerging for the first time in history.
Companies who satisfy the demands of these consumers in a sustainable manner should have bright prospects.
The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence is a forum for investment ideas based on this premise.
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