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TSLA - Looks like the CT commercial bust means higher production for semi trucks cia shifting of 4680 cells towards that market. Reviews from commercial trucking testing the semi has been good. I haven't seen any of them on the interstates yet. There are 140 of them. 100 used to transport stuff between Reno and Fremont (Tesla in house use/testing) and ~50 to others, vast majority for Pepsico.
Opinion | The Post-Covid Truancy Epidemic
Opinion by William A. Galston
https://www.msn.com/en-us/lifestyle/parenting/opinion-the-post-covid-truancy-epidemic/ar-BB1lYMbv
Skip school, skip out on education, which reduces future job prospects.
Not finishing college, which is expensive, is a lot different than not finishing high school, which is free.
The pandemic dealt a blow to school attendance. Many schools stayed closed too long, but even among those that reopened relatively quickly, student absence soared. Even now, years after resuming in-class instruction, most school systems are seeing high levels of student absences.
About 15% of students nationwide in 2019 were chronically absent, meaning they missed 10% or more of the school year, or about 18 days, according to the American Enterprise Institute. Full data aren’t yet available from the 2023-24 school year, but fragmentary statistics from local jurisdictions aren’t encouraging.
Students from poorer families are more likely to be chronically absent from school, but even in the nation’s richest districts, chronic absenteeism was nearly twice as high in 2023 as in 2019. Surprisingly, the length of time a school was closed isn’t a reliable predictor of absenteeism. Chronic absenteeism in 2023 stood at 28% of students for districts that remained closed the longest, not far ahead of 25% of students for districts that reopened the fastest.
A district’s racial makeup is a better predictor of what percentage of students miss school, but even in majority-white districts, chronic absenteeism rose significantly, from 13% in 2019 to 22% in 2023, compared with 17% to 30% in majority nonwhite districts.
They are a large project construction company. As far as I know, they don’t manufacture raw materials. They changed their name from Sterling Construction to Sterling Infrastructure, imo, to take advantage of the movement in this country to shore up our flagging infrastructure and rebuild our manufacturing capacity. They are in the thick of that movement.
Is STRL strictly an engineering company, or do they also produce raw materials?
Its possible I've missed it before, but during the conference call they mentioned, for the first time that I am aware, that they expect to be a big beneficiary of the surge in artificial intelligence investment, primarily through the construction of data centers. They also mentioned an expected growth in microchip fabrication plants.
STRL continues its outstanding performance:
First Quarter 2024 Results
Revenues of $440.4 million, an increase of 9%
Gross margin of 17.5%, an increase from 15.3%
Net Income of $31.0 million, or $1.00 per diluted share, an increase of 58% and 56%, respectively
EBITDA(1) of $55.7 million, an increase of 21%
Cash flows from operations totaled $49.6 million for the first quarter
Cash and Cash Equivalents totaled $480.4 million at March 31, 2024
Backlog at March 31, 2024 was $2.35 billion
Combined backlog(2) at March 31, 2024 was $2.42 billion
Share price up over 13% today.
This liability is potentially huge since every contamination case that goes to litigation will likely sue under this statute (private, state, federal etc). Joint and several liability allows litigants to pursue those involved that have deep pockets, even if the involvement is de-minimus. As a PFAS manufacturer, and a deep pocketed contributor, 3M could likely be named in a majority of the lawsuits. I suspect that we are very much on the leading edge of a wave of claims. With the recent EPA rules, Landfills and superfund sites will be required to start monitoring for PFAS constituents. Existing treatment systems may have to be redesigned to address PFAS. Landfills may detect the constituents in groundwater prompting off-site investigations, corrective action,. etc.. I don't want to attempt to put a dollar amount on any of this because these types of estimates have a tendency to undershoot as the liability will continue for decades.
I recently retired from a 35 year career, much of which included working on Superfund NPL sites. I know there is a tendency to not want to believe that a blue chip company can be significantly impaired by this type of impact. So don't shoot the messenger!
Regards
FL
TSLA - CT is a commercial bust. Less than 4000 sold in the first 5 months. Rivian trucks are a common sight in socal where I am now and also in tesla country in norcal.
Could be why Tesla recalled ALL the trucks…
But it doesn’t seem like they were flying off the shelves at warp speed.
Musk may have gone to China to ask for money—i.e. the “robotaxi” story could be misdirection to hide a liquidity squeeze.
This is not my own thesis, but rather one from someone who knows TSLA much better than I do.
For sure....I don't pay any attention to TSLA pronouncements, they are inevitably just hype.
Somewhat related and maybe old news, but my Tesla app not many months ago encouraged me to spend $5 or $10,000 to upgrade from enhanced autopilot to FSD. Now it's $2000. Plus $1000 hardware upgrade for a chip that I was told would be free when I bought the car.
FSD on local streets is "coming soon." It's been saying that for years. I guess when it is almost ready it will say, "coming real soon."
The brake pedal on the Tesla overrides the acceleration pedal
Tesla Stock’s Towering AI Valuation Is Detached From Reality
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-stock-towering-ai-valuation-121039283.html
Chuckling.....ya think? Of course you can slug in a whole bunch of names in that statement. You can probably add that investors are also in that camp.
The brake pedal on the Tesla overrides the acceleration pedal, so there is a way to stop.
Instead of selling the company, might LG contemplate forming a consortium to buy it?
SHEL reports 1Q24 results—starts_another $3.5M buyback:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-plc-1st-quarter-2024-060000060.html
The new $3.5B buyback will be completed by the time SHEL reports 2Q24 results on 8/1/24 (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-announces-commencement-share-buyback-060300825.html ).
SHEL has already repurchased $3.5B of stock during 2024 to date.
TSLA - Grid storage is where more profitable growth will come IMO. Model 3 RWD lease deal is $299/mo with 3K down. Dang it's enticing.
https://www.tesla.com/model3/design?utm_locale=en-US&utm_campaign=sales&utm_content=m3_leaseextended&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sendgrid.com&utm_term=24q2_m3_lease_extended_batch2#overview
My understanding is that if you “floor it” and shove the gas pedal way all the way down, then the pad you put your foot on can fall off leaving the “pedal” stuck under the floorboard with no way to reduce speed.
Poor editing, yes. Poor engineering, even more so.
Skilled writers/editors there:
"A mechanical problem that trapped its gas pedal,"
Tesla Not Next Ford. It’s Next Con Ed.
Elon Musk’s EV empire is crumbling.
By Matteo Wong
APRIL 24, 2024
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2024/04/tesla-cars-batteries-power-company/678168/
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/tesla-is-not-the-next-ford-it-s-the-next-con-ed/ar-AA1nAT99
Of late, Tesla’s cars have come to seem a bit hazardous. Their self-driving features have been linked to hundreds of accidents and more than a dozen deaths. Then, earlier this month, the company recalled its entire fleet of Cybertrucks. A mechanical problem that trapped its gas pedal, as InsideEVs put it, “could potentially turn the stainless steel trapezoid into a 6,800-pound land missile.”
Along the way, Tesla—which did not respond to multiple requests for comment—has defended its cars and autopilot software. As of last week, the company told federal regulators that the Cybertruck malfunction had not been linked to any accidents or injuries. But even resolving every safety concern may not stop Tesla’s entire EV business from becoming a hazard. Yesterday afternoon, the world’s most valuable car company released its earnings report for the first quarter of 2024, announcing that its net income had dropped 55 percent from a year ago. On an investor call shortly after, Elon Musk could offer only a vague euphemism to describe what has become an especially disastrous month: His car juggernaut “navigated several unforeseen challenges.” Just in April, Tesla has announced its first drop in sales since 2020, recalled one line of vehicles and reportedly canceled plans for another, and begun mass layoffs. There are still, somehow, six days left for the month to get worse.
Whether Musk can sustain his EV empire is now in doubt. He told investors that Tesla’s primary focus is now on AI and self-driving cars. But even if that pivot fails, the company has positioned itself to be on the edge of another, perhaps more crucial part of the green transition: delivering and storing America’s power. Tesla’s EV chargers are ascendant, if not dominant, as are its huge batteries that store renewable energy for homes and even entire neighborhoods. Profits from Tesla’s energy business were up 140 percent compared with the same period last year, and Musk asserted yesterday that the Division will grow significantly faster than the car business.” The company’s future may not lie in following the footsteps of Ford, then, so much as those of Duke Energy and Con Edison. Tesla, in other words, is transforming into a utility…
… Since 2019, the company has been selling “Megapacks”—huge batteries that hold enough electricity to temporarily power thousands of homes—to grid operators in New York, Massachusetts, California, Dubai, Australia, the United Kingdom, and elsewhere, as well as to private customers, including Apple. Tesla is continuing to ramp up the factory in California that manufactures these batteries, as well as building another in Shanghai. Until recently, there hasn’t been much competition, and some analysts have predicted that the Megapack business could one day be worth “substantially more” than Tesla’s cars.
Tesla staff say firm's entire Supercharger team fired
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-68935522
Cutting off your nose to spite your face. And just when other major American automobile companies were agreeing to use Tesla’s chargers.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/elon-musk-s-move-to-disband-tesla-ev-charging-team-blindsides-car-industry-sharp-kick-in-the-pants/ar-AA1nWWaJ
https://news.yahoo.com/16-automakers-switch-tesla-charging-110000010.html
Tesla pulls back from supercharger network. This mystifies me...
Tesla pulls back from supercharger network. This mystifies me and confirms my decision that my current Tesla is my last. Will likely move to a plug in hybrid of some sort in a couple years.
https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/tesla-is-pulling-back-from-ev-charging-and-people-are-freaking-out-ee8e490c?st=bxolsjpjqpea2ee&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
The article is behind a paywall but starts:
Tesla Is Pulling Back From EV Charging, and People Are Freaking Out
Widespread layoffs within the Tesla unit are a blow to efforts to build out a national charging network
Tesla’s move this week to lay off much of the team responsible for creating the largest and most successful electric-vehicle charging network in the U.S. threw the industry into a state of shock and confusion.
The layoffs halted construction work at a dozen Supercharger sites in Texas. In New York, property owners in negotiations with Tesla were told the company was withdrawing from discussions about adding chargers to their sites.
The upheaval comes as the EV industry struggles with sluggish sales growth and a bumpy rollout of a national highway-charging network.
The Tesla layoffs were sweeping and included employees in the sales force to those overseeing the construction of charging sites, according to people familiar with the decision. Contractors and executives at other automakers that have partnered with Tesla on charging described widespread confusion over the future of Tesla’s charging business.
Instead of selling the company, might LG contemplate forming a consortium to buy it?
LG’s $1M stock purchase on the open market today—when he already owned a very sizable stake—is not something you often see.
LG bought $1M of stock on_the_open_market_today:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/764065/000076406524000128/xslF345X05/wk-form4_1714592930.xml
Lourenco Goncalves now owns 5.76M shares, worth close to $100M at the current share price.
See #msg-174141720 for related info.
JNJ reaches revised talc settlement for ovarian-cancer plaintiffs:
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240501647970/en
The settlement excludes mesothelioma plaintiffs, but 95% of these have cases have already been resolved.
CLF independent director bought $425K of_stock_on_the_open_market today:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/764065/000076406524000126/xslF345X05/wk-form4_1714574246.xml
The same director bought $500K of stock three months ago (#msg-173752365).
3M correction to #msg-174333961—The EPA/CERCLA question did come up during the Q&A, which I initially missed. 3M said they will reserve for this liability when they are able to estimate the size of the liability, implying that this will not be happening anytime soon.
What is your best guess for the NPV of this liability? TIA
Anyone else reading this should feel free to chime in.
CLF—I'm sure the worry is about buying stock using borrowed funds.
3M—I was expecting your concern about CERCLA liability to surface during 3M’s 1Q24 CC today, but it didn’t. 3M did have this to say about PFAS in the CC prepared remarks:
https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_e434a2526d5875730e346680cce6a7f0/3m/db/3222/30862/webcast_transcript/Q1+2024+Prepared+Remarks+Script.pdf
It is important to note our agreement with public water suppliers addresses the detection of any type of PFAS at any level. This includes PFAS that have already been detected or may be detected in the future, including those that are the subject of the U.S. EPA’s recently announced limits in drinking water.
3M reports 1Q24 results—issues 2024 ex-SOLV-spin guidance:
https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_827c8a8b5aa9802496746200b47d1a06/3m/db/3222/30862/earnings_release/Q1+2024+Press+Release.pdf
3M spun off its healthcare segment into the new company, Solventum (Nasdaq: SOLV) on 4/1/23, so 3M’s 1Q24 results include that business segment. However, 3M’s new guidance for full-year 2024 results excludes the spun-off business and is on an apples-to-apples basis.
1Q24 sales were $8.0B, flat YoY. 1Q24 organic sales (excluding FX, acquisitions, and divestitures) were -1% YoY.
1Q24 non-GAAP EPS—which excludes the cost of the announced earplug and PFAS settlements and related legal expenses—was $2.39, up from $1.97 in 1Q23.
3M’s new ex-SOLV-spin 2024 guidance is as follows:
Non-GAAP EPS of $6.80-7.30. (The prior 2024 guidance including SOLV was $9.35-9.75; actual 2023 non-GAAP EPS was $9.24.)
Sales growth of -0.25% to +1.75%]/b].
Organic sales growth of 0-2.0%.
CC slides:
https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_827c8a8b5aa9802496746200b47d1a06/3m/db/3222/30862/presentation/Q1+2024+Earnings+Presentation.pdf
Financial statements: https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_827c8a8b5aa9802496746200b47d1a06/3m/db/3222/30862/financial_statement/Q1+2024+Supplemental+Financial+Schedules.pdf
With self driving stuck at level 2 robotaxi talk is nonsense, more hype then reality, great for juicing share price.
Doesn't anyone at NHTSA know how to use a calculator? There's around 13-14 million new cars sold every year. That's north of a billion [dollars at $82 per vehicle].
In the not-too-distant future, automatic emergency braking will have to come standard on all new passenger vehicles in the US, a requirement that the government says will save hundreds of lives and prevent thousands of injuries every year.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration unveiled the final version of the new regulation on Monday and called it the most significant safety rule in the past two decades.
It’s designed to prevent many rear-end and pedestrian collisions and reduce the roughly 40,000 traffic deaths that happen each year.
The new rules are designed to prevent many rear-end and pedestrian collisions and reduce the roughly 40,000 traffic deaths that happen each year.
“We’re living through a crisis in roadway deaths,” Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said in an interview. “So we need to do something about it.”
It’s the government’s first attempt to regulate automated driving functions and is likely to help curb some of the problems that have surfaced with driver-assist and fully automated driving systems.
Although about 90% of new vehicles have the automatic braking standard now under a voluntary agreement with automakers, at present there are no performance requirements, so some systems are may not be that effective.
The new regulations set standards for vehicles to automatically stop and avoid hitting other vehicles or pedestrians, even at night.
“Part of how I think we’re going to turn the corner on the unacceptable level of roadway deaths that we just lived with for my entire lifetime is through these kinds of technologies,” said Buttigieg, who is 42. “We need to make sure we set high performance standards.”
The regulation, which will require additional engineering to bolster software and possibly add hardware such as radar, won’t go into effect for more than five years.
That will give automakers time to bolster their systems during the normal model update cycle, NHTSA said.
It also will drive up prices, which NHTSA estimates at $354 million per year in 2020 dollars, or $82 per vehicle. But Buttigieg said it will save 362 lives per year, prevent about 24,000 injuries and save billions in property damage.
Doesn't anyone at NHTSA know how to use a calculator. There's around 13-14 million new cars sold every year. That's north of a billion.
TSLA - FSD in China will not be competitive without Lidar. I think all the leading brands there have Lidar in their high end offerings. I am guessing that Lidar is coming to Tesla models and that 8/8 robotaxis announcement for US means it is coming to that as well. Toyota Research Lidar on their Lexus cuv is getting smaller and more integrated with every iteration but still a big contraption. IMO it's an OK look for a taxis service.
https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/tesla-clears-key-china-assisted-driving-hurdle-baidu-deal
Invisible marker reducing copper cable theft
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0klp59exv1o
The company which runs the UK's digital network says an invisible marker has helped to reduce cable theft in Lincolnshire.
Openreach staff have coated miles of underground cables with a forensic liquid marker which leaves a unique DNA trace on skin and clothing.
The firm said the anti-theft measure helped to secure three recent convictions in the county.
The overall number of cable thefts across its network had reduced by almost a third in the past year, Openreach added.
Incidents where thieves strip cables from exchange boxes or beneath manhole covers often cause widespread phone and broadband disruption.
In 2022, thieves stole thousands of feet of copper cable in Scredington near Sleaford, leaving 150 villagers without broadband or landlines.
In a similar incident in Harby, near Lincoln, 200 homes and businesses were left disconnected after thieves stole 13,000ft (4,000m) of cable.
Openreach said cables coated with the synthetic DNA and UV tracer linked criminals to crime scenes.
Richard Ginnaw, from Openreach, said: "We take the security of our network seriously and have a wide range of crime prevention tools to prevent thefts and catch those responsible.
"[The technology] is proving to be one of the best.”
I'm sure the worry is about buying stock using borrowed funds. I think they paid a average of $18.79 plus the added tax penalty and now will pay XX percent on the debt they incurred.
It's like buying stock on margin except they'll never get a call.
That’s a silly Barron’s article, IMO. You can’t judge the wisdom of a share-buyback maneuver by a 1-day or 1-week movement in the share price.
This Steel Maker’s Stock Buyback Backfired. How Not to Get Burned.
By Al Root
April 25, 2024, 2:30 am EDT
Cleveland-Cliffs spent some $600 million repurchasing 30.4 million shares in the first quarter, amounting to about 6% of the total stock outstanding.
CLF reported first-quarter earnings on Monday. Bottom-line earnings missed estimates by a few cents a share, and the stock dropped 11%. That wasn’t the biggest reason for the drop, though.
The company spent some $600 million repurchasing 30.4 million shares in the first quarter, amounting to about 6% of the total stock outstanding. It also announced an additional $1.5 billion repurchase authorization. It had stopped paying a quarterly dividend during the pandemic.
Investors typically cheer large capital returns, whether they be buybacks or dividends. The problem is that Wall Street projects a 2024 free cash flow for the company of about $530 million, and $770 million for 2025—and those numbers don’t support its buybacks.
Capital return to shareholders is great, but investors don’t like robbing Peter to pay Paul.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/3m-cleveland-cliffs-buyback-dividends-c646c1d3?mod=hp_LEAD_6
…last month they announced they had a minimum price of $900. Over the last two weeks I was buying in the range of $7.90 to $8.10.
USW compares tentative Cleveland Cliffs agreement with current US Steel proposal
With two days remaining before the expiration on Thursday, Sept. 1, of the United Steelworkers’
master contract with Cleveland-Cliffs and U.S. Steel Corporation, USW is comparing the
tentative agreement announced by Cliffs over the weekend with U.S. Steel’s current proposal.
According to a statement released today, Tuesday, Aug. 30:
LENGTH OF CONTRACT
CLIFFS: Four years.
USS: Four years.
WAGES
*CLIFFS: 8 percent raise in 2022; then 4 percent, 4 percent, and 4 percent.
*USW: 3 percent raise in 2022; then 2.5 percent, 2.5 percent, and 2.5 percent.
HEALTHCARE
*CLIFFS: No premiums; no network changes; no changes to cost-sharing (such as copay,
deductibles, coinsurance, out-of-pocket maximums); eliminates requirement for spouse to elect
coverage.
*USS: No premiums, as long as USS agrees to the following: change its current PPO Medical
Plan network to the Blue High Performance Network, “which excludes many hospitals, doctors,
and physicians, and eliminates coverage of out-of-network provides (except in emergency)”;
eliminate coverage for high-cost specialty drugs obtained through a physician, clinic, or infusion
center, requiring all such specialty drugs to go through the Accredo Speciality Drug Program,
which decides whether a patient may self-administer or need additional tests; adopt SaveOn drug
program, “reducing plan reimbursement (increasing employee coinsurance) unless employee
enrolls and applies for copay assistance programs through drug manufacturers.”
BONUSES
*CLIFFS: No bonuses. “Instead, it’s reflected in wages that are with you forever and count
toward future earnings.”
*USS: $4,000 appreciation plus $3,000 ratification. “We told USS it can pay the $4,000 in a
signing bonus but we were not agreeing to this as written because USS did nothing for us during
the height of the pandemic, as requested by the union. USS should have appreciated us during
the heart of the pandemic, not when they’re trying to buy the contract.”
HOLIDAY
*CLIFFS: Add Juneteenth.
*USS: No response.
LEAVES OF ABSENCE
*CLIFFS: Two weeks parental leave; paid time off for victims of domestic abuse.
*USS: No response.
CAPITAL INVESTMENT
*CLIFFS: $4 billion.
*USS: $1 billion.
PENSION
*CLIFFS: Defined benefits—Effective 1/1/23, all years of service prior to 1/1/23 will have a
multiplier of $115; effective 1/1/23, all years of service going forward will have a multiplier of
$126. Steelworkers Pension Trust—effective 12/1/22, increase hourly contribution by $0.50.
*USS: No response.
RETIREE HEALTHCARE
*CLIFFS: Post 2016 hires, raise 401(K) contribution from $0.65 to $0.75.
*USS: No response.
PROFIT SHARING
*CLIFFS: Maintain at ArcelorMittal levels.
*USS: Unchanged.
SICKNESS AND ACCIDENT (S&A)
*Cliffs: Unchanged.
*USS: Eliminate automatic “recharge” of eligibility for S&A benefit after an employee returns to
work for 60 days, even if the second disability is unrelated to the prior one or is the result of a
difficult recovery or additional illness/injury.
“Your bargaining committee made it clear to USS that we deserve a fair contract that reflects our
sacrifices,” USW said. “We’ve worked very hard to achieve record profits that have greatly
benefited executives and shareholders. Their proposal needs to reflect our contribution. Keep up
the action. We need everyone’s support as we continue to push for what we deserve.
I have a hunch that jbog will say this is BS.
Re: HES acquisition
The “body language” on CVX’s 1Q24 CC today seemed somewhat less sanguine about closing the HES deal than CVX’s and HES’ prior comments. I could be wrong about this, but CVX seems to be preparing for investors for some kind of settlement of the dispute with XOM.
CLF PR on pricing transparency:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cleveland-cliffs-publish-monthly-hot-110000330.html
I have a hunch that jbog will say this is BS.
CLF—His [labor] contracts are all settled well in advance of their due date.
I believe [LG’s] attitude is to spend whatever it is to keep everyone happy and then he expects the marketplace to pay the piper. Business doesn't work that way.
CAT—(+2%)—regaining some of yesterday’s loss, which seemed unduly severe.
CVX 1Q24 results…
PR:
https://chevroncorp.gcs-web.com/static-files/d6e0b7a2-bc43-42cf-aa0b-56ee0eedb3b0
CC slides with interspersed prepared remarks:
https://chevroncorp.gcs-web.com/static-files/993b5a93-e862-4b50-bef7-e7451d69f059
LOL...good point.
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In many nations, a middle class is emerging for the first time in history.
Companies who satisfy the demands of these consumers in a sustainable manner should have bright prospects.
The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence is a forum for investment ideas based on this premise.
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