Stock Incubator

[read_this_n0w]

recently small sales

S 2010-05-12 2010-05-19 16:46:18 ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS INC ARIA DODION PIERRE F officer (Senior VP, Chief Medical Off) 5,714 $4.29 $24,513.10 0 19.81% view
S 2010-05-12 2010-05-19 16:46:18 ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS INC ARIA DODION PIERRE F officer (Senior VP, Chief Medical Off) 13,578 $4.29 $58,249.60 0 19.81% view
S 2010-05-17 2010-05-19 16:46:05 ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS INC ARIA Keane Raymond T officer (SVP General Counsel & CCO) 10,256 $4.09 $41,947.00 0 15.40% view
S 2009-10-01 2009-10-05 17:04:12 ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS INC ARIA IULIUCCI JOHN D officer (Senior VP, Development) 70,000 $2.16 $151,543.00 132,742 16.86% view

http://www.insidercow.com/

[IIIverson]

Thank u for the chart. Earnings soon and i expect some drug info updates. This is my 2010 pick. CEO Is a large investor (2009 buying) and he wants shareholders to make large profits off his company. Possible MERCK buy out.

[read_this_n0w]

re:ARIA

[IIIverson]

Thanks for the charts Dalcindo.

Not sure how into small stocks you are but ARIA is turning back up here and just wanted to let you know that it might be a good one to trade...

[dalcindo]

Re: BIDU - WEEKLY Chart:

Hi, Fox13!!!

Thank you for reminding me about this one. I decided to update the WEEKLY chart.

A quick eye over the chart suggests that BUYING pressure continues to support this Chinese website.

Technically speaking, RSI's EMA's remain in a BULLISH spread: Any negative cross-over of 14-RSI's 45-EMA and 9-RSI's 14-EMA occurs WHILE 14-RSI dwells in its BULLISH 40-80 range. I would thus consider this temporary bearish spreads as unimportant, as long they occur within a BULLISH bias, as expressed whenever RSI remains above its 40-line.

A less cryptic interpretation of the chart should also indicate that:
1 - CCI, Wm%R and CMF continue to evolve within BULLISH ranges;
2 - MACD is kinking back up for a possible repeat rally at a level well above its zero-line;
3 - While the ADX line seems to taper off, its (+)DI remains in a bullish spread, well above the (-)DI line;
4 - And finally, using Mary Kay Austin ("MKA") interpretation of the A/D, OBV and ChiOsc lines, retail and registered buyers remain in control - Which is yet another way to interprete the RSI behavior, as we just did above.

OVERALL - BULLISH outlook for this foreign internet stock. Look for $85.00 as significant psychological barrier; Look for $65.00 as significant technical support, as defined by Fibonacci's 23.6% mark, IMHO.

Thanks Fox13!

D.


---------------------------------
Message in reply to:
BIDU ??? what do your charts say about this one ?

just got another 10 calls of the 80s @ .05

---------------------------------


- Dalcindo: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281

[dalcindo]

Analysis: S&P 500, QQQQ's AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, QCOM:

Indeed, I agree that the market has reached significant technical hurdles.

On a pure technical interpretation, I believe that the resistance that has formed overhead for the broader indices is likely to remain impenetrable for quite some time.

In the case of the S&P 500, not only this benchmark has failed to rally above its 200-EMA, but we are now witnessing the NEAR cross-over testing of 50-EMA x 200-EMA.

Similar crucial points are being tested within other indices, such as the Nasdaq, the Dow Jones Industrial, NYSE and Russell (See: #msg-47480531 , as you have pointed out).

Within the constituents of above indices, individual stocks have also put out oversold or reversal signals that reflect some serious overhead resistance just discussed in their respective indices.

Here, let's name a few technical examples:

1 - In the case of AAPL, WEEKLY RSI double-topped between OCT 2009 and mid-APR 2010, while the MONTHLY RSI finished forming a negative divergence with price. While price is sitting loftly at around $279.00, there will require some serious fundamental fuel to propel the price any higher. Technical support in a monthly chart is thus set at around $209.00. Whether the demand can carry AAPL to new height remains a function of the overall economy, which is expected to see further deceleration, and whether the electronic market can absorb even further demand, considering the saturation in smart phones and the demand's reliance on jobs, which are not expected to grow anytime soon.

2 - In the case of GOOG (WEEKLY chart), I was closely following its ascent within the speculative channel dated "17 MAR 2010". But it too escaped the moon-bound path once it met its longer-trend resistance. Indeed, the speculative downtrend channel we drew in NOV 2009 denied two attempts at leaving price's historical highs behind. Instead, the price remained tethered within the earthly confines of the bearish channel. Technically speaking, GOOG's WEEKLY RSI gave its first bearish signal in early MAR 2010, which we qualified on the chart as "Rally weakens". This qualification was borne out of RSI's comparative lines, where 9-RSI's 14-EMA (RED line) had already crossed below 14-RSI's 45-EMA (BLUE line) AND 14-RSI failed to rally ABOVE its 45-EMA. Eversince this BEARISH technical event, 14-RSI has remained in its negative spread with these two other EMA lines, expressive a steady bearish bias among market participants.

In the case of MSFT and QCOM, a similar technical development has taken place, thus adding further bearish bias to the respective index and overall market sentimental direction.

Feel free to peruse above charts and technical analysis in the following organization: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281 .

Thanks.

- Dalcindo


---------------------------------
Message in reply to:

this is another good one:
GOOG, MSFT, AAPL, QCOM and others relative movement Charts:
#msg-47480531
now markets are at 50/200-ema and 38.2% Fib line,
interesting to see how that pan out the next couple weeks

---------------------------------

- Dalcindo: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281

[dalcindo]

NEW CHARTS ORGANIZATION:

(On my Stockcharts.com Public List: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281

PAGES 1-2:
- Charts #01: $VIX: Synopsis of major indices
- Charts #02: S&P 500
- Charts #03: S&P 500's $SML, $MID Caps
- Charts #04: S&P 42-day cycle; SPDRs
- Charts #05: S&P vs. Direxion's FAS, BGU, TNA, ERX

PAGES 3-4:
- Charts #06: $COMPQ: $NAHL, $NAAD
- Charts #07: $QQQQ; Top 4 Holdings: AAPL, QCOM, MSFT, GOOG; ONEQ
- Charts #08: $INDU
- Charts #09: NYA; BDH; DIA; QID; SDS; SSO; UNG; USO
- Charts #10: RIFIN
- Charts #11: WTIC

PAGES 5-6:
- Charts #11: $GASO
- Charts #12: $GOLD, $XAU
- Charts #13: $USD monthly, weekly and daily
- Charts #14: $XEU monthly, weekly and daily
- Charts: #15 $USD vs. $XEU relative strength
- Charts #16: $UUP, $UDN and UUP vs. UDN relative strength

PAGES 6-7
- Charts A: AAPL
- Charts B: BIDU
- Charts C: CSCO
- Charts G: GOOG
- Charts M: MSFT
- Charts Q: QCOM
- Charts R: RIMM
- Charts S: SBUX

PAGES 8-9:
- Charts S: SIRI
- Charts: V: V
- Charts W: WMT
- Charts Y: YHOO
- NEW: Charts #zz: Relative performance charts of the following funds families:
- - American Funds
- - American Skandia Funds
- - Fidelity Funds
- - John Hancock Funds
- - Mass Financial Services Funds
- - Pimco Funds
- - Scudder Funds
- - Sun America Funds
- - US Allianz HiFive Funds
- - Vanguard Funds
- - Van Kampen Funds
- Charts zzz: $TNX: 10-Year Treasury Note Yield


- Dalcindo: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281

[dalcindo]

Re: $GOLD

$GOLD may be due for a decline - I expect the USD to also rebound from here on, as expected in its inverse lock-step with GOLD.

In fact, last MAY, I posted "Chart #1" below with $1.300.00 as eventual target.

Also, channel drawn as far back as OCT 2008 remain in force - See "Chart #2".

Finally, "Chart #3" remains bearish with a continued resistance from a bearish channel that too remain in force since NOV 2009.

OVERALL - There are enough technical events here to influence my bias towards a bullish turn and favor a down-side scenario for GOLD. An upside above $1,300.00 (in "Chart #1") would require a very improbable "world event" to overcome the technical hurdles overhead for this topping commodity, IMHO:


$GOLD - 20-Year, Monthly Chart:
Chart #1 -


$XAU - 10-Year, Monthly Chart:
Chart #2 -


$XAU - 36-Mo., Weekly Chart:
Chart #3 -


- Dalcindo: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281


----------------------------

Message in reply to:
GOLD possibly close to ending its uptrend?



---------------------------

- Dalcindo: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281

[read_this_n0w]

GOLD possibly close to ending its uptrend?

[dalcindo]

NEW: Relative performance charts of family funds (on pages 8 & 9) in the following link:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281&cmd=show[s155219576]&disp=O

- The American Funds
- The American Skandia Funds
- The Fidelity Funds
- The John Hancock Funds
- The Mass Financial Services Funds
- The Pimco Funds
- The Scudder Funds
- The Sun America Funds
- The US Allianz HiFive Funds
- The Vanguard Funds
- The Van Kampen Funds

Singled-out chart appearing in these performance chartings available upon request.

Thank you

- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: ARIA

(From IHub Private Messaging)

Hi, xxx!

ARIA is sitting on a solid 50% Fib retracement support level at $2.57, corresponding also to a line-up of pre-rally patterns. The RSI is giving its most bullish support as well, as it remains over its 40-line since its recent decline.

OVERALL - Although the chart may turn otherwise, the current outlook is pretty BULLISH based on this week's indicators:




- Dalcindo


----------------------------------

In response to:

Sent By: xxx Member Level To: dalcindo Date: Wednesday, July 07, 2010 8:34:56 AM
I was wondering if you could add your indicators on an ARIA chart for me like KERX. I am expecting some nice news coming out of ARIAD the second half of the year here. I have a simple chart here for a glance.

Thank you.



-----------------------------------

DAA


ARIA CHART here very interesting...

Notice the declining volume in the past 2 months.

MONEY FLOW is bouncing up from 50%

stochRSI is deeply oversold and ready to rise.

Weekly Chart sitting on the 50dma.

[dalcindo]

Special Report: After euro zone crisis, what next?


By Noah Barkin, Paul Taylor, Tim Heritage, Emmanuel Jarry, Andreas Rinke and James Mackenzie

BERLIN/BRUSSELS/PARIS (Reuters) - It was after 1 a.m. on Monday May 10 when a little-known Dutch civil servant made the suggestion that may have saved the euro. European finance ministers had come together in Brussels late on the Sunday afternoon to thrash out a rescue package to stabilize the common currency. Unconvinced by a 110 billion euro deal for debt-laden Greece eight days earlier, the markets had knocked the euro 4 percent lower against the dollar in the intervening week and pushed bond spreads to new highs.

As the markets headed south that Friday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner had spoken to his European counterparts on an emergency conference call of G7 finance ministers and central bankers. "We need a clear, strong, unequivocal financial back stop," he said. President Barack Obama had rung German Chancellor Angela Merkel twice to stress the need for a headline-grabbing package.

With investors in Asia poised to start selling again in just a few hours, the ministers knew they needed to come up with a plan -- and fast. "The atmosphere was like the end of the world," said a French diplomatic source who, like many officials who spoke to Reuters for this story, declined to be named. "It was a lot like 2008. We had our eyes on the clock because we absolutely had to have an agreement before the Asian markets opened. No agreement would have meant disaster, a major sovereign debt crisis."

There was just one problem: The ministers could not agree on what to do. Thirteen of the 16 euro zone countries, including Austria and Finland, traditional allies of Germany, wanted to allow the European Commission, backed by a euro zone guarantee, to raise money on capital markets and then lend it to member states in acute financial distress.

Germany, Europe's economic heavyweight, hated the idea. Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, in a wheelchair since a deranged man shot him at an election rally in 1990, had fallen ill on arrival in Brussels and been rushed to hospital. Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere, a confidant of Merkel, had received a surprise call from his boss while taking an afternoon stroll in the woods, and had flown in from Berlin to hold the line on the loans idea. Anything more than coordinated bilateral loans from member states was unacceptable, he warned, and would be shot down as illegal by Germany's Constitutional Court.

An hour before the opening bell in Tokyo, the ministers took a short break. Some huddled with aides; others paced the halls talking on their phones or tapping out messages on their Blackberries. Spanish Economy Minister Elena Salgado, the meeting's chair, retired to a private office to call Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero to discuss new austerity measures.

It was then that Maarten Verwey, director of foreign financial relations at the Dutch Finance Ministry, floated the idea of a temporary Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV). Participants in the meeting said Verwey pointed out that an SPV could raise and disburse funds as needed but might also get around Germany's objections. A few German officials, including Bundesbank President Axel Weber, had hinted at such a solution in other meetings that night.

Verwey was dispatched to test the idea on the German delegation, which relayed it to Merkel, huddled in the Chancellery with a small group of senior cabinet members who were still digesting a major setback for the ruling coalition in a crucial state election hours earlier.

Yes, an SPV would be an acceptable solution, came the reply. Berlin liked it because it would be temporary (the Germans insisted on a three-year limit), it respected the unanimity rule, kept control out of the hands of the Commission, and avoided anything that might look like an embryonic common European bond or a permanent debt management office for the euro zone. As with aid for Greece, Germany had insisted on and won its wish for the International Monetary Fund to be involved.

With German backing assured, Salgado reconvened the ministers just before 2 a.m. to ratify the accord. Christine Lagarde, France's straight-talking economy minister, summed up the moment in a single word: "Hallelujah."

Hallelujah, indeed. A 750 billion euro deal to save the common currency and stave off a global debt crisis would have been unthinkable only a few months before. But that was before Greece's financial woes had exposed both yawning fiscal divergences within the euro zone and holes in EU budget rules designed to prevent the very kind of crisis that now threatens Europe's single currency.

As European leaders prepare to meet again on June 17 to map out a new strategy for growth and fiscal governance, it's worth asking what a revitalized, better coordinated, more strongly regulated euro zone would look like. Is a new model possible? Is the euro zone fixable?

TWO GREAT SHOWDOWNS

In private conversations with colleagues, Chancellor Merkel has described the intense market pressures of the past few months as a "poker game" between investors and politicians. Whoever flinched first, she said, would lose.

In Brussels, Europe raised the stakes. The rescue mechanism -- a 500-billion-euro special lending facility backed by up to 250 billion euros from the IMF -- was an implicit acknowledgement that Europe's existing tools to prevent a breakup of the bloc are woefully inadequate. But it was also a signal to investors who had openly challenged leaders to end the crisis.

Whether it will work or not is uncertain. Both the euro and the bloc remain vulnerable.

A separate showdown is also under way: a high-stakes slugfest pitting euro zone leaders and their competing visions of the currency union against each other.

In one corner -- Germany and Merkel, the pastor's daughter from East Germany who stands accused of deepening Europe's crisis by resisting a quick aid package for Greece. She blames the crisis on a lack of fiscal discipline on Europe's periphery and wants a radical strengthening of EU budget rules as well as changes to the Lisbon Treaty to prevent such profligacy from ever happening again.

In the other corner are France and its hyperactive President Nicolas Sarkozy. He sees the crisis as an opportunity to usher in the euro zone-wide "economic government" Paris has long sought. In this Europe, the bloc's leaders, not its central bankers and finance ministers, would set economic policy.

The euro zone's struggle with the markets could well determine the fate of the ambitious common currency project. Europe's internal fight will shape the future of the continent itself. "The euro is Europe; Europe is peace on this continent," Sarkozy told journalists in early May, the flags of the euro zone's 16 members behind him. "We cannot allow what previous generations have built to be undone. That's what is at stake."

HIDDEN FLAWS

As 2009 drew to a close, Europe's common currency appeared to have weathered the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression with barely a scratch. Countries outside the euro area, from Iceland to Ukraine, had seen their economies collapse, but most of those within the zone were basking in the glow of their 11-year-old currency and hailing it as an "anchor of stability". The euro had shot above $1.50, approaching a record high against the dollar, which appeared to be in a state of terminal decline.

For much of the 2000s, it seemed that markets had effectively mutualized the risk of euro zone debt by treating all government bonds as equal. Spreads between German bunds and the debt of countries such as Greece, Italy and Belgium were minuscule, even though the latter states had debt-to-GDP ratios of close to 100 percent -- far above the 60 percent ceiling prescribed by the Maastricht Treaty.

The first clear sign of trouble came in October, when a newly elected Greek government shocked financial markets and its euro zone partners by announcing a huge upward revision of its budget deficit forecast. After years of barely distinguishing between the debt of different euro zone countries, investors could suddenly see the massive fiscal divergences within the bloc.

Markets turned on the euro and began demanding higher interest rates to buy the debt of struggling southern European countries -- first Greece and then Portugal and Spain. "It was like something gathering pace, rolling down a hill, and then falling off the edge of a cliff," said a currency trader in London.

In crucial ways, the euro zone has always been a defective system. From the beginning, monetary union had more to do with political accommodation than fiscal integration. Yes, there were strict rules governing a member state's deficit and debt levels. But even Germany, long a stickler for fiscal discipline, had successfully pushed for a loosening of the rules after it repeatedly breached them in the early 2000s.

The bloc's flaws had been hidden by a decade of growth, itself fueled by low credit and, in places such as Spain and Ireland, a real estate bubble.

Now the shock of the global financial crisis and the economic downturn had exposed those flaws for all to see. In hindsight, the real surprise is not that investors began to charge a risk premium to hold the bonds of high-deficit countries from late 2008, but that it took them a full decade to notice that Greece was not Germany.

TEUTONIC ORDERS

Can the euro zone fix those flaws and win back the confidence of the markets? The answer depends to a large extent on whether Berlin and Paris can agree on a way forward. France and Germany have always been the engines of monetary union, but their visions of how the euro zone should function were very different, even before the bloc's founding.

Germany's most recent thinking was laid out in a May 19 memorandum drawn up by Schaeuble's finance ministry. In the nine-point document, sent to European governments, Berlin called for quicker and harsher sanctions for countries that fail to keep their deficits in check, including denying violators access to EU structural funding and suspending their right to vote on matters of bloc-wide importance.

Berlin also wants a procedure for orderly state insolvencies to be an "integral" part of any fix for this and future crises. Economists such as Deutsche Bank's Thomas Mayer say that is code for a managed Greek default within the euro zone -- a scenario that many consider inevitable at some point, despite the 750 billion euro rescue package. Greece's public debt is forecast to climb above 130 percent of Gross Domestic Product this year and its budget deficit could exceed 9 percent. Portugal's debt is projected to top 85 percent of output with a deficit of more than 7 percent. The pressure to make creditors share the pain with taxpayers in those countries may become overwhelming.

Another possible solution to the euro zone's flaws might be to mutualize the bloc's debt. Jean-Claude Juncker, chairman of the group of euro zone finance ministers, proposed such a scheme in late 2008. A common bond, he said, should cover the first 40 percent of overall euro zone sovereign debt and come guaranteed by the whole euro area. Anything above that level would be junior debt, and more costly for governments to issue nationally. That would encourage governments to reduce their debt levels toward a manageable 40 percent.

Germany, though, has nixed the idea, arguing that it would raise the borrowing costs of virtuous nations while rewarding Europe's spendthrifts by giving them lower borrowing costs.

To ensure all of Berlin's proposed reforms are written in stone, Merkel wants to amend the Lisbon Treaty, a process that could take years if its initial ratification by all 27 member states is anything to go by.

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso has called the Germans "naive" for thinking they can change the treaty without others seeking to unpick the parts they dislike. But Merkel insists the changes are necessary to ensure the German public -- staunchly opposed to aid for Greece and fearful it will open the door to more bailouts -- does not turn against the European project.

Germany also worries that its own Constitutional Court would not tolerate a second case like Greece. The threat of a court veto directly shaped Merkel's tough stance on aid for Athens and her negotiating position on the euro zone rescue mechanism. Merkel and her circle of advisers were beside themselves when French Europe Minister Pierre Lellouche told the Financial Times late last month that the rescue scheme violated EU law -- a comment they feared the court in Karlsruhe might seize on to justify blocking the mechanism.

Though Sarkozy's office apologized for Lellouche's remarks, heads are still shaking in Berlin. "The knowledge in Paris about how German politics works is surprisingly limited," said one bitter German official.

GALLIC IRRITATION

France, too, is frustrated. Its officials believe Germany has failed to grasp the real message of the euro zone crisis -- that a currency union cannot work without deeper political cooperation on a range of economic issues. Paris has made clear that it regards Germany's massive trade surplus, swollen by years of wage restraint and weak domestic consumption, as one of the causes of the Greek crisis.

Sarkozy would like to see an "economic government" for the currency area, with regular summits of the 16 national leaders and a dedicated secretariat to oversee the coordination of economic policy and address imbalances in competitiveness. "The crisis has shown that Europe's current system has reached its limit," a French government official told Reuters. "We cannot have one country where everything is directed toward productivity gains and competitiveness and others that put the focus on consumption and social protection. Either we come closer to each other, or we will have a political crisis on our hands, on top of an economic and financial crisis."

So far, Merkel doesn't appear to be listening. Last week, her government unveiled an 80 billion euro austerity package designed to bring down Germany's deficit -- precisely the kind of consumption-dampening policy program Paris has been warning Berlin against. Little wonder that a dinner in Berlin between Merkel and Sarkozy to discuss euro area economic governance was abruptly postponed hours after the austerity package was launched. "It makes sense to delay a meeting when you feel it will not yield results and in this case, there would not have been any results," the French official said.

Relations were already under strain after Germany's surprise announcement last month of a unilateral ban on naked short selling of financial instruments. The move, which came just hours after EU finance ministers had discussed how they could better align policy, caught Berlin's partners by surprise, and reinforced the perception in Paris and elsewhere that Merkel has little time for coordination, especially when it conflicts with her domestic priorities.

Despite these squabbles, Merkel and Sarkozy know they need each other. Both leaders have shown they can compromise on difficult issues -- whether in steering Europe's response to the financial crisis, agreeing a common stance on climate change or dealing with thorny management issues at the Franco-German aerospace giant EADS.

In a show of solidarity and a rebuke to Britain last week, the pair sent a joint letter to the European Commission urging it to push for an extension of Germany's naked short-selling ban across the 27-nation bloc. Officials also say the two countries are working toward a "grand bargain" of the kind that past leaders like Helmut Kohl and Francois Mitterrand reached before Europe's monetary union was born. France's agreement to a German replacing Jean-Claude Trichet as the next head of the European Central Bank in 2011 could be a part of such a deal, officials in France say.

And while they may not always agree on the future of the euro zone, there is one issue on which France and Germany have common purpose: limiting the power of the European Commission.

The Lisbon Treaty was supposed to herald a more streamlined Brussels and a newly muscular Commission. So far, it hasn't worked out that way. Berlin and Paris have both pinned partial blame for Greece's meltdown on the failure of the Commission to police the EU's budget rules, and see no reason to reward Brussels with additional powers. Both French and German proposals would give more power to member states or independent bodies such as the European Central Bank, rather than the EU executive. One senior Brussels official said that if the Germans get their way, the Commission will end up as "Mrs Merkel's doormat".

Commission President Barroso seems determined to resist the Franco-German push, and has argued that there is no need for a radical overhaul of rules or the creation of new institutions. Respect for European budget rules cannot be enhanced "by reducing the credibility of community institutions and the community method", Barroso told a Brussels press conference on June 2.

A WAY FORWARD

Much is still uncertain. Washington continues to press Europe to embrace bolder solutions than most euro zone governments are willing to contemplate. U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner has urged European regulators to conduct rigorous stress tests of each bank and publish the results. Such a move, he says, will restore market confidence and avoid a Japan-style decade of economic stagnation with zombie banks. World Bank president Robert Zoellick, a former top U.S. official, wants Europe to consider an orderly restructuring of the debts of its most troubled countries and institutions.

Other questions need to be answered. Even if Berlin and Paris agree on stronger economic governance, what should the bloc do about the debt mountains of the most highly indebted countries? How should it resolve the liabilities of banks that hold most of that debt and other bad loans? And how will the political and financial situation in places such as Spain add to Europe's woes in the coming months?

On a cool day in early February, Merkel stood next to Sarkozy at the Elysee Palace and broke a long-standing national taboo. Germany, she said, might be able to support a form of "economic government" as long as it included all 27 EU countries rather than the 16 euro zone nations that France envisions. "To get what we want we will have to make compromises," a senior German government official acknowledged.

The key will be finding a deal that both France and Germany can sell at home. In the ever-flexible world of EU politics, that may not be as hard as it looks. Take the 750 billion euro deal last month. Sarkozy claimed it was "95 percent French", while Merkel told her team Germany had won all its main demands. If worried Germans can be convinced that fiscal discipline has been restored, and restive French can believe that political will has regained primacy over the markets, perhaps a way forward can be found. It would help, too, if the solution to Europe's current mess worked.

(Additional reporting by Julien Toyer, Ilona Wissenbach, Jan Strupczewski and David Brunnstrom in Brussels, Krista Hughes in Frankfurt and George Matlock and Naomi Tajitsu in London; Editing by Simon Robinson)

[dalcindo]

Re: $SPX, QQQQ - Rallying?


Some of the DAILY charts I have stored point to possibility of a rally from here on - See daily SPX and QQQQ charts below, where BULLISH convergences, oversold conditions and "pincher" (albeit mild) have occurred:

(Source: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281 )


$SPX - DAILY Chart:



QQQQ - DAILY Chart:



- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: KERX

Looking good atop its 144-weekly EMA. RSI remains in strong bullish levels despite recent decline, suggesting likely price relaxation prior to another leg up, IMHO:


KERX - 36-Mo., WEEKLY Chart:


- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: SSO, SDS - WEEKLY Chart:

A propos of SSO and SDS, I revised the chart for SSO. Look like the price struggles within a narrow historical bearish channel and significant Fib levels (23.6 and 38.2%), whereas SDS seems to have broken through its long-term 20-weekly EMA resistance-turned-support:

SSO - 5-Year, WEEKLY Chart:



SDS - 3-Year, WEEKLY Chart:



- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: $XEU - 10-Year, WEEKLY Chart Favors RALLY:

Technically speaking:
1 - Price reached a significant 50% Fib level = $121.10
2 - RSI reached a taut oversold position
3 - Secondary indicators are lining up in a "pre-Rally Pattern"

OVERALL - Above technical patterns are begging for a relief rally to allow prior bearish weeks to wind down. Look for 200-weekly EMA to act as an extreme HIGH overhead resitance, IMHO:

(Chart source: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281 )



- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: $WTIC - Due to RallY:

On a pure technical basis, $WTIC is due to rally since validating once again its bullish channel bottom.

Additionally:
1 - Consider Slo-STO's signal line extreme oversold position
2 - CCI tapering off
3 - RSI signaling a rally at the confirmingly BULLISH 40-line level

OVERALL - Early BULLISH reversal signals are lining up:


$WTIC - 36-Mo., WEEKLY Chart:


- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: XEU - Achieved Technical LOW:

Extension of channel drawn last 12 DEC 2009 continues to validate channel's bottom - Further suggesting a technical bounce off of this support for this EURO index.

One EARLY technical indication that XEU is serious about reversing its recent bearish trend for a longer, more sustain path upwards would require a violation of the short-term DTC's midline. For a CONFIRMATION of such reversal, that upper border of that channel remains a (lofty) task, especially approaching that resistance zone, IMHO.

RSI may also provide same indication of early reversals once lower border of upper channel gets tested, but a break thru the 70-line remains a channelnginf requisite at this point:

XEU - 12-Mnth, DAILY Chart:


- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: OIH, XEU

OIH - Looking to bounce off of $97.0 support

XEU - Relative strength chart between the two single indices (XEU vs. USD) shows that historical relative strength value of 1.42 was reached and provided technical support for the pair to bounce:

XEU - 3-Year, WEEKLY Chart:


- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Watch for UNG:

I plotted UNG from a private request late last year. Indeed, the price continues to remain within the confines of that same down-trending channel.

Whereas DAILY data suggests that the price is testing 45-EMA once again with a predominant bearish bias per secondary indicators, the WEEKLY data is forming new BULLISH signals.

Going forward, watch for step-wise progression of WEEKLY RSI as it creeps back up slowly, but steadily to indicate a swelling shift of buyers relative to sellers. In price behavior terms, look for stead dissolution of the $7.7 overhead resistance.

OVERALL - Predominantly BEARISH; early, albeit unconfirmed reversal signals


UNG - 36-Mo., Weekly Chart:



UNG - 12-Mo., Daily



UNG - 2-Mo., 60-Min. Chart:



- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Opinion: $GOLD to Hit $1,300:


GOLD:
Watch out for gold. Definitely at technical HIGH and significant OVERHEAD technical hurdles per $XAU (notice how WEEKLY and MONTHLY channels in $XAU charts are holding since 2009 and 2008 respectively - Technical Analysis is just beautiful.

Now, take a look at the MONTHLY $GOLD chart itself where I have laid down a PROJECTED Fibonacci grip. Per price patterns, all motions and consolidations have occurred at significant Fib levels.

Next? Extension of Fib at 161.8%, corresponding to about $1,302 - IMHO::


$XAU - 36-Month, WEEKLY Chart:



$XAU - 10-Year, MONTHLY Chart:



$GOLD - 20-Year, MONTHLY Chart:



- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Follow-Up: The BIG Drop
Attempt At A Technical Explanation ...


Last 03 MAR 2010, in light of the overall downtrending SPX, I posted the chart below with the following note:

"... Watch for this continuation wedge formation (BEARISH), ... etc."

I think that the wedge "did its job" in acting as a continuation pattern, holding on to the $SPX as far and as long as it did towards its apex.

The result is no surprise, considering that the price precipitated to its "normal" technical place. Downwards, that is - IMHO:

(NOTE - At this point, the chart reached a BEARISH trend as per 1/VIX relative to SPX)

$SPX & 1/$VIX - 36-Month, DAILY Chart:



- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Analysing the recent CRASH: $SPX, $COMP, $INDU, $NYA, $RIFIN :

A very quick interlude in my vacation from posting and charting to comment on the recent market "crash", which various authorities are still probing as to its cause - Have they even considered technical influence, by chance?

Below are charts that I have produced and shared publicly time over time where channels, trendlines and indicators are literally framing the recent market high, fall, and its ultimate support. Considering that anyone could have drawn the Fib levels and channels based on historical high/low extremes, then NO credit goes to this author, but a firm statement in support of technical analysis's amazing powers.

As a hard-headed technical analyst, I would refer the reader to my public list on StockCharts.com, where channel, as far back as NOV 2009 had delineated a top-most border, at which the "crash" occurred.

Additionally, recent update in the charts, where significant Fibonacci levels were traced, also correlate with the exact level at which the "crash" occurred.

Finally, some other channel have also provided with their respective lower borders, at the precise point where the "crash" stopped.

Below are a sample of the charts in reference. Feel free to peruse on the public list linked below.

All this to say that technical analysis retains an amazing power to frame market tops and bottoms, whereas the skill in the analyst is to be able to draw lines and figures that help construct a path of the underlying momentum.

I am thrilled to say that technical analysis provided by the weekly and monthly charts has been able to remain in sync with market fluctuations, however dull or wild they may be at times.

The purpose of this entry is to influence the fundamentalist towards technical analysis. While a combination of both fundy and techy may provide a balanced position, there still remains the fact that technical analysis alone "absorbs", or discounts the news into its various price-based expressions, in the form of "linear rumors", which the technician can count on. In contrast, once the fundamental news is released, the price is already off to another rumor - Hence: "Buy in the rumor, sell on news".

I will return to my sabatical from charting/analysis, wishing you my friend enduring health and wealth.

- Dalcindo


$MID ($SPX) - 10-Year, Monthly Chart:
Note here how the upper border of channel drawn last 13 FEB 2010 provided the top-most high prior to price decline. Also, note how 5,9-EMA remain in a bullish spread:



$SPX - 10-Year, Monthly Chart:
Note here the validation of Fibonacci's 61.8%:



$SPX - 36-Month, WEEKLY Chart:
Note here the convergence of downtrend and uptrend channels' respective lines.



$COMPQ - 29-Year, MONTHLY Chart:
Here, the chart spans over the rather long time period and channels remain uncompromised. Secondary indicators have been oversold for sometimes and demanded some technical relaxation in the price level:



$INDU - 10-Year, MONTHLY Chart:
Resistance zone and Fib level were laid down last march 2010. Price got stumped right at the Fib level as expected on a purely technical basis. Anyone could have drawn that chart:



$INDU - 36-Month, WEEKLY Chart:
Here, a quich insert within the chart stating last 23 MAR 2010 that one should expect resistance at the significant Fib level. Please, note how the most recent reaction brought the price at or above the 50% level, suggesting significant support at 10340:



$NYA - 10-Year, MONTHLY Chart:
Here, bearish channel drawn on 23 MAR 2010 received further validation just prior to price decline. Note how the EMA's are valued at Fibonacci numbers, and recent fall gained support at 144-EMA:



ONEQ - 36-WEEKLY Chart:
"Crash" found support at this significant channel BOTTOM drawn in JUN 2009!



$RIFIN
here too, "Crash" found at support at channel BOTTOM:



- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Weekly Scans - ON HOLD

Hello friends,

I short note to tell you that I will take an undetermined leave of absence from scanning, charting and technical analysis.

All is well. In fact, I have increased my trading activities and attention towards foreign exchange, where I have been able to generate the most consistent stream of income and maintain great interest in fundamental world events that may affect my trading. This alone keeps me entertained and abreast of issues relevant to my trading and day-to-day life outside of medicine.

I wish you friends the most successful trading.

Health and wealth to you all.

Sincerely,

Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Weekly Scans - Week of 05 APR 2010:


Bucking Bull:
ARWR Arrowhead NASD
Count: 1


Bull Pop:
AIS Antares Pharmaceutical, Inc. AMEX
ELCR Electric Car Co., Inc. NASD
KRY Crystallex Intl Corp. AMEX
LNG Cheniere Energy, Inc. AMEX
Count: 4


ROW x STO:
AIS Antares Pharmaceutical, Inc. AMEX
BGP Borders Group Inc. NYSE
LNG Cheniere Energy, Inc. AMEX
UCBI United Community Banks, Inc. NASD
Count: 4


Your support towards this weekly effort is much appreciated by voting at the bottom of this link:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281

Thank you and have a great trading week!!!

- Dalcindo


-----------------------------------------------------------------

A QUICK note on the scans:
- Bucking Bull scans for bullish trend reversals that "buck" the trend;
- Bull Pop looks for unusual "pops" in priorly bearish trending stocks;
- ROW x STO screens out positively divergent stocks over weeks (The name merely stands for: RSI Over Weeks cross-reference against weekly Slow Stochastics).


DISCLAIMER:
I chose to scan stocks only at the close of each trading week, assuming that stocks that continue bullishly into the week-end are likely to remain in the trend. Therefore, although these scans occur at the close of the trading week, their bullish activities might have been underway several days prior.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
DAA

[dalcindo]

Re: EUR:USD - Target Reached Overnight ... Expect Decline:

Well, it took no more than a few hours for the expected target high to be reached.

In fact, we initially indicated that: "... a technical target set NEAR 1.35415 remains a viable spot over the next days."

As soon as the target was reached, price returned down its bearish path and receding against all prior advances down to 1.3450 as of this writing.

Technically speaking, the price did reach a level similar to that of the upper border, which we alluded to in prior discussion. So, the technicals still hold, and the outlook remains bearish for the EUR:USD pair, IMHO.

- Dalcindo



--------------------------------------------------------------
Message in reply to:
Re: EUR:USD - Expect further EURO rally:


As we expected in last comment (See: "$USD - Target Reached ... Expect EURO Rally below), EURO has rallied after $USD reached the upper border of its bearish channel.

While the EUR:USD pair continues to rally, a technical target set NEAR 1.35415 remains a viable spot over the next days, IMHO. This target was defined as 50% Fib retracement level (from LOW = 1.32666 on 25 MAR against HIGH = 1.3838 on 17 MAR).

While fundamental development within the eurozone seems to appease investors. Indded, certain financial guarantees have been laid down not only for Greece, but also for Portugal and any other potentially failing economies within that Union, thus sending a market wide message meant to reassure shaky investors - So far, the message seems to have been perceived quite well.

I believe that fundamental development will carry little or no further impact on the current development, here assuming as a pure technician that all fundamental development has already been absorbed, digested and accounted for within the current rally, thus sending the balance back towards the "pre-crisis" level, IMHO:


Technically speaking, in the first chart below, the USD continues to get stumped at the midline of the down-trend channel in the MONTHLY chart below. A pass over that line would speak favorably for the bulls out there, but until then, the mood remains guarded at best, if not subdued.

In the second chart, consider the predominant "oversold" features within the CCI, Wm%R, Slow STO, PPO lines,altogether forming our "Pre-Decline Pattern", which so often herald a bearish downturn.

A proxy view of the pair further illustrates the BEARISH bias that has developed in the relative strength chart expressed as UUP:UDN in the third chart below.


OVERALL - Overall, the charts continue to favor a rally in the EURO, and this may be expected to last until pair reaches the neighborhood of the upper channel indicated in the last chart below, IMHO:


$USD - MONTHLY Chart:




$USD - 12-Monthly, DAILY Chart:




$USD ETF (UUP vs. UDN: RS) - PS Index Bullish/Bearish Fund - 12-Mo., Daily Chart:




$XEU:$USD (Relative Strength) - 12-Mo., Daily Chart:



- Dalcindo

-------------------------------------------------------------

Message in reply to:
Re: $USD - Target Reached ... Expect EURO Rally:

As mentioned in prior entry (See: msg# 1919 - "USD - At High, Yes ... But Should Get To Higher Last High"), we anticipated that despite technical overbought signals, the rally in $USD would first likely consolidate at the upper border of Trend 2, then continue to reach the next higher level up to the upper border of Trend 1.

That expected level was reached today, and the technicals are now pointing to internal weakening, suggesting that the point of EURO rally may have been reached.

So, look for strengthening of the EURO as of next trading week, as the US Dollar is likely to loose ground from recent yearly lows, IMHO:

[dalcindo]

Re: EUR:USD - Expect further EURO rally:


As we expected in last comment (See: "$USD - Target Reached ... Expect EURO Rally below), EURO has rallied after $USD reached the upper border of its bearish channel.

While the EUR:USD pair continues to rally, a technical target set NEAR 1.35415 remains a viable spot over the next days, IMHO. This target was defined as 50% Fib retracement level (from LOW = 1.32666 on 25 MAR against HIGH = 1.3838 on 17 MAR).

While fundamental development within the eurozone seems to appease investors. Indded, certain financial guarantees have been laid down not only for Greece, but also for Portugal and any other potentially failing economies within that Union, thus sending a market wide message meant to reassure shaky investors - So far, the message seems to have been perceived quite well.

I believe that fundamental development will carry little or no further impact on the current development, here assuming as a pure technician that all fundamental development has already been absorbed, digested and accounted for within the current rally, thus sending the balance back towards the "pre-crisis" level, IMHO:


Technically speaking, in the first chart below, the USD continues to get stumped at the midline of the down-trend channel in the MONTHLY chart below. A pass over that line would speak favorably for the bulls out there, but until then, the mood remains guarded at best, if not subdued.

In the second chart, consider the predominant "oversold" features within the CCI, Wm%R, Slow STO, PPO lines,altogether forming our "Pre-Decline Pattern", which so often herald a bearish downturn.

A proxy view of the pair further illustrates the BEARISH bias that has developed in the relative strength chart expressed as UUP:UDN in the third chart below.


OVERALL - Overall, the charts continue to favor a rally in the EURO, and this may be expected to last until pair reaches the neighborhood of the upper channel indicated in the last chart below, IMHO:


$USD - MONTHLY Chart:




$USD - 12-Monthly, DAILY Chart:
[/chart]



$USD ETF (UUP vs. UDN: RS) - PS Index Bullish/Bearish Fund - 12-Mo., Daily Chart




$XEU:$USD (Relative Strength) - 12-Mo., Daily Chart:



- Dalcindo

-------------------------------------------------------------

Message in reply to:
Re: $USD - Target Reached ... Expect EURO Rally:

As mentioned in prior entry (See: msg# 1919 - "USD - At High, Yes ... But Should Get To Higher Last High"), we anticipated that despite technical overbought signals, the rally in $USD would first likely consolidate at the upper border of Trend 2, then continue to reach the next higher level up to the upper border of Trend 1.

That expected level was reached today, and the technicals are now pointing to internal weakening, suggesting that the point of EURO rally may have been reached.

So, look for strengthening of the EURO as of next trading week, as the US Dollar is likely to loose ground from recent yearly lows, IMHO:




----------------------------------------------------------------

- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: SOLF- Annotation In DAILY Chart:


(Following is annotation within DAILY chart)

----------------------------------------------------------------
29 MAR 2010 - TECH-NOTE:
Despite the recent "Pre-Decline Pattern" formation, other equally but opposite technical events have occurred:
1 - RSI has dwelled in a solid bullish range eversince price climbed into the upper half of the bearish channel
2 - Positive divergence are turning across the dashboard
3 - Fib-sensitive moving averages are getting violated and narrowing towards a bullish spread

OVERALL - BULLISH OUTLOOK, IMHO.
----------------------------------------------------------------

- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: EUR

Hi, 3x!

Yes, green and HIGHER HIGHS getting hit after gap got filled as expected.

Looking at 1.35421 as significant technical hurdles corresponding to the 50% Fib retracement from LOW = 1.32666 on 25 MAR and HIGH = 1.3838 on 17 MAR per 3-hour chart (not able to bring chart over from my oanda trading station).

- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: EURO - Huge Bounced At The Open

Huge pop up rally at the open ... Not sure if sustainable though, considering the wide gap and the propensity for the pair to trade on strong technical habits. So, gap filling may be in order here, IMHO.

- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Weekly Scans - Week of 29 MAR 2010:


Bucking Bull:
FWTC Freshwater Technologies, Inc. NASD
IMDS Imaging Diagnostic Systems Inc. NASD
NNVC NanoViricides, Inc. NASD
Count: 3


Bull Pop:
EMKR EMCORE Corp. NASD
Count: 1


ROW x STO:
GLG GLG Partners, Inc. NYSE
SIXFQ Six Flags, Inc. NASD
XOMA XOMA Ltd. NASD
Count: 3


Your support towards this weekly effort is much appreciated by voting at the bottom of this link:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281

Thank you and have a great trading week!!!

- Dalcindo


-----------------------------------------------------------------

A QUICK note on the scans:
- Bucking Bull scans for bullish trend reversals that "buck" the trend;
- Bull Pop looks for unusual "pops" in priorly bearish trending stocks;
- ROW x STO screens out positively divergent stocks over weeks (The name merely stands for: RSI Over Weeks cross-reference against weekly Slow Stochastics).


DISCLAIMER:
I chose to scan stocks only at the close of each trading week, assuming that stocks that continue bullishly into the week-end are likely to remain in the trend. Therefore, although these scans occur at the close of the trading week, their bullish activities might have been underway several days prior.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
DAA

[dalcindo]

Weekly Scans - Week of 29 MAR 2010:


Bucking Bull:
FWTC Freshwater Technologies, Inc. NASD
IMDS Imaging Diagnostic Systems Inc. NASD
NNVC NanoViricides, Inc. NASD
Count: 3


Bull Pop:
EMKR EMCORE Corp. NASD
Count: 1


ROW x STO:
GLG GLG Partners, Inc. NYSE
SIXFQ Six Flags, Inc. NASD
XOMA XOMA Ltd. NASD
Count: 3


Your support towards this weekly effort is much appreciated by voting at the bottom of this link:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281

Thank you and have a great trading week!!!

- Dalcindo


-----------------------------------------------------------------

A QUICK note on the scans:
- Bucking Bull scans for bullish trend reversals that "buck" the trend;
- Bull Pop looks for unusual "pops" in priorly bearish trending stocks;
- ROW x STO screens out positively divergent stocks over weeks (The name merely stands for: RSI Over Weeks cross-reference against weekly Slow Stochastics).


DISCLAIMER:
I chose to scan stocks only at the close of each trading week, assuming that stocks that continue bullishly into the week-end are likely to remain in the trend. Therefore, although these scans occur at the close of the trading week, their bullish activities might have been underway several days prior.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
DAA

[dalcindo]

Re: DDSS - Technical Thoughts

Based on latest technicals, I would be very surprised if DDSS went anywhere but up, IMHO.

Here are the technicals that I consider:

PROs:
1 - RSI is consolidating at 40 within a very narrow range: whereas this occurs within the bears territory, the bulls have been able to hold at or above that critical level since mid-MARCH, as well as bringing RSI to higher highs since FEBRUARY. The underlying force is sustainably, but cautiously UP.
2 - The corresponding price action indicates a very strict adherence to the supportive trendline. So, whatever the fundamental reasons bringing DDSS back to the surface, the process is SLOW but consistently UP again.
3 - CCI, Wm%R and CMF have dwelled in the oversold area and are NOW marching in positive divergence against price.

CONs:
1 - Although RSI has telegraphed some bullish signs of reversal (positive divergence), it still has not flagged a reversal signal CONFIRMATION. Early confirmation would be up to the individual trader, some placing it at 50-crossing, others at 75-level attainment. However, so far, the predominant trend remains DOWN.
2 - Price has not committed to one or the other side of the consolidation formation, thus no BREAKOUT has occurred.
3 - "Pre-Rally Pattern" formation occurred in the aggregate occurrence of oversold conditions within the secondary indicators (CCI, Wm%R and CMF), but these signals are by nature lagging indicators.
4 - Institutional interest remains sub-par with OBV, A/D and ChiOsc lines nearing, but still BELOW their respective 21-EMA.

OVERALL - As indicated before, the current price consolidation pattern is coming to an ever-narrowing end, and the expectation is that is should shoot towards an overall BULLISH bias.


CAVEAT - However, the caveathere is that the longer it takes the consolidation pattern to breakout, the greater the likelihood that the directional price expectation to fizzle. In fact, the strongest breakout have historically occurred within 3/5 of the consolidation pattern completion:


DDSS - 12-Month, DAILY Chart:


- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: DOW, EUR, USD:

Hi, Daiello!

Euro's been pummeled by risk aversion that has left both Asian and European markets and turned to safe haven sheltering offered by USD.

With Portugal downgrade and Greece's losing support from French and German unpopular leadership - let alone scaring institutional investors by courting IMF fellows, there is little fundamental impetus for the EURO to rally.

However, the technicals are calling for an unwinding of the EURO's recent decline towards the upside.

While the DOW (See Chart #1: $INDU's monthly chart below)) is approaching a significant level of resistance, Chart #2 below depicts the US Dollar reaching a significant level.

While I continue to scalp the EUR:USD pair, the predominant winds have turned, and the bias seems to have turned based purely on technical events. Chart #3 below shows that the relative strength chart of the single indices ($XEU and $USD) has stopped its decline right at the 61.8% Fib level.

Additionally, DAILY Chart #4 below has lined up bullish divergences and "Pre-Rally Pattern" formations that are favoring a rally in the pair.

OVERALL - Whether DOW and EUR carry a positive correlation relates to a fundamental level that I have not considered. Based on the technical events above, though, the pair seems to favor a rally, IMHO:



Chart #1 - $INDU - 10-Year, MONTHLY Chart:




Chart #2 - $USD - 12-Month, DAILY Chart:




Chart #3 - $XEU:$USD (Relative Strength) - 3-Year, WEEKLY Chart



Chart #4 - $XEU:$USD (Relative Strength) - 12-Mo., DAILY Chart



----------------------------------------------------------------
Message in reply to:
Don't forget Dalcindo, Euro USUALLY follows equity markets, lately the sell off has been due to the Greek debacle while the equity markets have continued higher. But if DOW is at or near top, then I don't see a rally for the euro as selling equities creates a demand for dollars (atleast here in the US)
---------------------------------------------------------------

- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: DDSS - Still getting tighter YET:

I can't wait to see DDSS pop one way or the other. Well, ... Rather see it pop YOUR way LOL






- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: EURO - Room to go?

Yes, it does seem that the EURO still has room to fall, but the charts are getting technically biased for a rally at this point.

More specifically:

1 - The EUR:USD chart has reached its midline of its bearish channel, which also happens to be the very ultimate value of Fib's level at 61.8%.

2 - Also, the DAILY USD chart stomped the second rally leg right at the expected channel border.

OVERALL: Taken all together, all of these technical convergences favor a rally of the EURO, IMHO:




- Dalcindo


--------------------------------------------------------------
Message in reply to:
seem like EUR still have room to drop
--------------------------------------------------------------

- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: EUR:USD - Favors Rally:

Watch for EURO rally per this WEEKLY chart, where relative strength chart of the two single currency indices have concluded this week right at the significant Fib level of 61.8%:


$XEU:$USD (Relative Strength) - 3-Year., Weekly Chart:


- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: $USD - Target Reached ... Expect EURO Rally:

As mentioned in prior entry (See: msg# 1919 - "USD - At High, Yes ... But Should Get To Higher Last High"), we anticipated that despite technical overbought signals, the rally in $USD would first likely consolidate at the upper border of Trend 2, then continue to reach the next higher level up to the upper border of Trend 1.

That expected level was reached today, and the technicals are now pointing to internal weakening, suggesting that the point of EURO rally may have been reached.

So, look for strengthening of the EURO as of next trading week, as the US Dollar is likely to loose ground from recent yearly lows, IMHO:




- Dalcindo


------------------------------------------------------------------
Message in reply to:
Follow-Up: USD - At High, Yes ... But Should Get To Higher Last High:

Just a quick note here on the breakout from "Trend 2" channel following a short consolidation period.

As of today, that bearish channel's upper border has been violated as the USD climbs to a higher high. In the last posting regarding these competing channels (Click discussion link above), we mentioned a "Higher Last High", which I believe would represent the upper border of that "Trend 1" channel, IMHO.

Once that ultimate point is reached, I am expecting further consolidation below "trend 1" upper border with lows finding support along "trend 2".


$USD - 12-Mo., Daily:


---------------------------------------------------------------

- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: FAZ - 9-Day, 15-Minute Chart:



- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: TZA - BreakOut: A Case of Devil's Advocate

Clearly, TZA has been doing some serious climbing recently. Combined with $SPX's $SML chart (which I posted earlier today), there is definitely a sense that Small Caps are getting ready to roll down.

However, technically, I am always looking for the false signals in any break-out pattern. And, sure enough, I have found a few technical events (bearish channel validation, Moving Average resistance, concerted indicators signaling overbought conditions) that may speak against a true break-out, at least so far.

Following is the technical annotation I provided within the chart:

---------------
25 MAR 2010 - TECH-NOTE: Watch for dominant DTC and reproducible patterns of "fake rallies", that just further validated that bearish channel. Breakout should occur once upper border of that channel has been violated, IMHO.

More specifically, consider:
1 - "Pre-Decline Pattern" formation
2 - 233-EMA remains "true" historical moving resistance still

- Dalcindo
---------------


TZA - 9-Day, 15-Minute Chart:



Tell me what you think.

- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: QCOM - MONTHLY:

As indicated before, QCOM is acting like QQQQ's saving grace:



- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Weekly Scans - Week of 22 MAR 2010:


Bucking Bull:
ATTD Attitude Drinks Inc. NASD
CIGX Star Scientific, Inc. NASD
GBE Grubb & Ellis Co. NYSE
MSGI Marketing Services Group, Inc. NASD
ZQK Quiksilver, Inc. NYSE
Count: 5


Bull Pop:
BONZ Bonanza Goldfields Corp. NASD
Count: 1


ROW x STO:
FNM Federal National Mortgage NYSE
VGZ Vista Gold Corp. AMEX
Count: 2


Your support towards this weekly effort is much appreciated by voting at the bottom of this link:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281

Thank you and have a great trading week!!!

- Dalcindo


-----------------------------------------------------------------

A QUICK note on the scans:
- Bucking Bull scans for bullish trend reversals that "buck" the trend;
- Bull Pop looks for unusual "pops" in priorly bearish trending stocks;
- ROW x STO screens out positively divergent stocks over weeks (The name merely stands for: RSI Over Weeks cross-reference against weekly Slow Stochastics).


DISCLAIMER:
I chose to scan stocks only at the close of each trading week, assuming that stocks that continue bullishly into the week-end are likely to remain in the trend. Therefore, although these scans occur at the close of the trading week, their bullish activities might have been underway several days prior.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
DAA

[dalcindo]

Article - Is Socialized Medicine Bad for Your Wealth?

by Brett Arends

Friday, March 19, 2010

provided by:



To hear some people tell it, the health-care bill will destroy America and your stock portfolio. We will become a "socialist" country. You should sell everything, put your money in gold, cash or foreign stocks, and run to the hills.


It's hard to get past the hyperbole and partisan hysteria on this topic. But if we take the calm view, what, if anything, would the bill mean for your investments?


Take a deep breath. It probably won't mean very much. There's a good chance it won't mean anything at all.


To start with, we don't really know what it will do to the deficit. The Congressional Budget Office Thursday projected the bill would cut deficits by $138 billion over 10 years. There will be a lot of detailed debate about these forecasts and the assumptions underlying them. Most of it will be pointless. I have spent too many years watching oil analysts who couldn't successfully predict the oil price 12 months out, and economists who couldn't even spot a recession when we're in one, to have any faith in forecasts and projections. The CBO doesn't know what this bill will actually do over the next 10 years, let alone after that. Nor does anybody else.


And even if these forecasts miraculously turn out to be correct, they're only a rounding error. The most recent CBO analysis, published earlier this month, predicted that under President Obama's latest budget proposals, the total U.S. deficit from 2011 through 2020 will come to nearly $10 trillion. The alleged budget savings from the health-care bill are less than 2% of that.


One usually expects huge deficits to lead to inflation, and that's a major concern in this environment. You should be very wary indeed of holding most long-term bonds, the investment most at risk from rising inflation. But you should have been wary before this bill. Health-care reform doesn't change that. And it's worth noting that even here the picture isn't clear-cut. The Japanese government has been running massive deficits for two decades, but inflation remains on the floor, and owners of long-term Japanese government bonds have done very well.


Yes, maybe the critics are right, and the current bill doesn't do anywhere near enough to rein in exploding health-care costs. But, of course, neither did the status quo. It's hard to argue that the bill will make a good situation bad, or even a bad situation worse. Maybe it will do nothing to fix a disastrous situation. But sooner or later that's going to have to be fixed anyway. Make of it what you will, but advanced countries with more direct government control over health-care costs have clearly done a much better job of controlling those costs.


Will the bill really "turn America into a socialist country"? It's easy to laugh at this notion, of course, but let's look at it from another point of view. Even if that were correct, should you really sell everything and flee?


Socialism, or social democracy, or whatever else you want to call it, doesn't seem to have hurt stockholders overseas too badly. Over the past 10 years, according to MSCI Barra, stock markets across socialized Europe have produced total returns of about 2% a year in U.S. dollar terms, according to MSCI Barra. The figure for France is just over 2% and for left-wing Britain and Holland nearer to 3%. Pinko Denmark has boomed by 10% a year.


Meanwhile, here in the land of the free, investors have made zero.


Today, you may be better off looking at matters like stock fundamentals and valuations than macro forecasts. It is worth noting that fund manager Jeremy Grantham, who is right more often than most, thinks top-quality U.S. blue-chip stocks are the best investments in world markets right now. And those on his list include a number with big exposure to the U.S. health-care sector, including Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, Pfizer, Merck and Abbott Laboratories.


Socialized medicine may not be so bad for your wealth after all.



----------------------------------------------------------------

- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: QCOM - Promising ...

... With influential trendlines overhead. Intermediate being tested and likely ceding to trend if rally continues.

Agreed, inverted H&S patterns seem to appear within weekly and daily charts as well, with neckline corresponding somewhat to upper border of intermediate channel, at least for the most obvious one, IMHO:


QCOM - 12-Month, DAILY Chart:


- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: BDH, NAAH - Break-Out: QCOM, GLW, MOT

Hi, 3x!


Yes, indeed. Nice breakout from GLW and QCOM ... MOT still at testing level. Also, Nasdaq's New Highs/Lows (NAHL) is breaking out of range as well:







- Dalcindo


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Message in reply to:
BDH is breaking out
with GLW leading the way

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- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: $SPX's $MID - Make or Break ... :


After drilling through a soft resistance zone, S&P 500's mid caps is likely to hit a harder technical level of resistance at this bearish channel's upper border.

If this level of resistance cedes to the bullish push, there would be no other technical hurdles for the bears to throw at the bulls, leaving the prairie gate wide open for a new verdant pasture, IMHO:




- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: GOOG - Still Going ...


Weakening posted on RSI, but this is likely to represent a grazing break for this bull.

I have narrowed the speculative uptrend channel ("(s)UTC - 17 MAR 2010") for early indication of further weakness. Watch for support violation vs. overhead channel resistance as main fighting ground, IMHO:


GOOG: 36-Month, WEEKLY Chart:


- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: AAPL - Topped

Looks like AAPL topped: divergence among secondary indicators favor decline, but recent rally will likely reveal resilient bulls fighting against any pullback, so expect consolidation at best, IMHO:



- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: DDSS - Annotation in chart:

Hi, Baggers!

Yes, volume would be a nice ingredient here, however, the recent momentum took DDSS one notch lower, and it will take some serious push behind it to turn the indicators bullish. So far, the sellers remain in force, and RSI recorded one bearish note. None is final here, so the week may bring something more bullish.

Is there anything fundamental about this stock that caught your attention?

Overall, the monthly and weekly charts remain neutral-to-bullish, whereas the daily chart just acquired a bearish bias. Monthly/weekly support may prove sturdier and end up revealing a bullish trend, hopefully.

- Dalcindo






- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: BIDU - Shooting Star


Here, a classic shooting star formation would herald the end of BIDU 's multi-month rally if we closed the week today.

For now, look for weakness developing in RSI and secondary indicators, especially since CCI, Wm%R and CMF are getting oversold and ChiOsc seems to be rolling a bit ... Worth keeping an eye on it:


BIDU - 36-Month, WEEKLY Chart:



- Dalcindo