Stock Incubator

[dalcindo]

Analysis: S&P 500, QQQQ's AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, QCOM:

Indeed, I agree that the market has reached significant technical hurdles.

On a pure technical interpretation, I believe that the resistance that has formed overhead for the broader indices is likely to remain impenetrable for quite some time.

In the case of the S&P 500, not only this benchmark has failed to rally above its 200-EMA, but we are now witnessing the NEAR cross-over testing of 50-EMA x 200-EMA.

Similar crucial points are being tested within other indices, such as the Nasdaq, the Dow Jones Industrial, NYSE and Russell (See: #msg-47480531 , as you have pointed out).

Within the constituents of above indices, individual stocks have also put out oversold or reversal signals that reflect some serious overhead resistance just discussed in their respective indices.

Here, let's name a few technical examples:

1 - In the case of AAPL, WEEKLY RSI double-topped between OCT 2009 and mid-APR 2010, while the MONTHLY RSI finished forming a negative divergence with price. While price is sitting loftly at around $279.00, there will require some serious fundamental fuel to propel the price any higher. Technical support in a monthly chart is thus set at around $209.00. Whether the demand can carry AAPL to new height remains a function of the overall economy, which is expected to see further deceleration, and whether the electronic market can absorb even further demand, considering the saturation in smart phones and the demand's reliance on jobs, which are not expected to grow anytime soon.

2 - In the case of GOOG (WEEKLY chart), I was closely following its ascent within the speculative channel dated "17 MAR 2010". But it too escaped the moon-bound path once it met its longer-trend resistance. Indeed, the speculative downtrend channel we drew in NOV 2009 denied two attempts at leaving price's historical highs behind. Instead, the price remained tethered within the earthly confines of the bearish channel. Technically speaking, GOOG's WEEKLY RSI gave its first bearish signal in early MAR 2010, which we qualified on the chart as "Rally weakens". This qualification was borne out of RSI's comparative lines, where 9-RSI's 14-EMA (RED line) had already crossed below 14-RSI's 45-EMA (BLUE line) AND 14-RSI failed to rally ABOVE its 45-EMA. Eversince this BEARISH technical event, 14-RSI has remained in its negative spread with these two other EMA lines, expressive a steady bearish bias among market participants.

In the case of MSFT and QCOM, a similar technical development has taken place, thus adding further bearish bias to the respective index and overall market sentimental direction.

Feel free to peruse above charts and technical analysis in the following organization: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281 .

Thanks.

- Dalcindo


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Message in reply to:

this is another good one:
GOOG, MSFT, AAPL, QCOM and others relative movement Charts:
#msg-47480531
now markets are at 50/200-ema and 38.2% Fib line,
interesting to see how that pan out the next couple weeks

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- Dalcindo: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281