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Hey, thanks SOAR!
D.
Dalcindo: fabulous chrts and analysis.....Well done!!!!
Re: PBEGF, USD, EUR:
(From PM messaging)
Hi, XXX!
PBEGF was not an active chart in the charting engine I regularly use (stockcharts.com). I have requested it to be listed there. I received a confirmation that it may be listed on stockcharts.com anytime: "Your symbol request for [PBEGF] has been submitted to the StockCharts.com Support team. We will email you once it has been added to StockCharts.com."
Regarding your specific request about the US Dollar, I continue to believe that the EUR:USD chart is trading within the confines of a bearish channel, and that the recent high corresponds to an even longer term downtrend line which originated from this past winter HIGH. The XEU vs. USD chart below approximate that graphic representation, in lieu of the actual EUR:USD chart on my oanda forex account 9which I remain inept at transposing into this text format).
Looking at the single currency itself, the USD chart below does indicate a sustained bullish channel, with recent LOW corresponding to a validation of that channel (see: $USD - 12-Month, DAILY Chart below).
Seeking fine-tuning among bulls and bears, a relative strength chart of UUP against UDN happens to indicate a similar technical development, whereby the recent LOW defines a bullish bias within that rising channel.
In fact, considering the UUP chart alone, the recent LOW merely validated the daily 200-EMA as a strong technical support without losing completely the bullish spread between the 9 and 21-daily EMA trendlines. This speaks favorably for this PowerShares Bull Fund. Additionally, the OBV line made a higher low, against the A/D and ChiOsc lines, each testing their respective historical bottom.
OVERALL:
I believe that the recent LOW did dilute most of the market sellers and carved out more room overhead for an upside move going forwards, IMHO.
XEU vs. USD - DAILY Chart:
$USD - 12-Month, DAILY Chart:
UUP vs. UDN - DAILY Chart:
- Dalcindo
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Message in reply to:
Thanks Dalcindo for the information you provided this week.....Could I get a chart and your thoughts about PBEGF?.....I have owned this stock for about 5 years and its been a winner....Lately, I have started to think about selling some for diversification.....Timing will obviously be important so, I would appreciate any of your tips........Are you as concerned about inflation as I am? , and a falling dollar?...I have been thinking about UDN and your chart & input is appreciated....Hope all is well.
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- Dalcindo
Re: $COMPQ, NAAD, NAHL, TRIN - 36-Month, DAILY Chart:
As $COMPQ ventures into new yearly highs, it is now officially drilling into the resistance zone that should prove pivotal and tedious. In fact, I believe that this zone will represent a rite of passage for this junior index, before bulls gain confirmation that the US economy is back and running once again.
This period of anticipation is likely going to be characterized by two conditional scenarios. in the first scenario, the fundamentals develop positively in the short AND mid-term views, and the resistance zone cedes to a sustained consolidation. In the second scenario, the fundamentals are yielding to uneasy or short-sighted investors and falls short of the drilling power to resume a decline.
Either way, a decline is far more likely gain forceful momentum than any sustained growth, considering that only a handful of economies are expected to get "out of this mess". If China continues to relax its policy and manage its inflationary risk favorably (i.e.: without limiting its own domestic capital investment, consumption and growth), then the eyes will turn to the US for any indication of further growth. If the USD economy declines, I believe that China will sell off more of the US Dollar and accelerate a mechanism by which its currency will trade on different intermediaries than the USD. And this may spell the beginning of a new era for the Asian and world markets, IMHO.
The $COMP Chart:
Looking specifically at the graph below, the are several overlapping indicators, which taken as a whole, indicate some serious resistance ahead.
RSI, MACD, TRIN:
These three indicators are suggesting a likely reversal at the current level. RSI hit a new high as price head-butted into the resistance zone. Correspondingly, MACD pierced through its overhead resistance line, suggesting a bullish consensus support as we enter this new level of trading. If MACD steps and holds on to the resistance-turned-support level, then we may very well be into that first scenarioo alluded above, where consolidation will characterize that trading period, IMHO. If that support breaks, it may indicate a general failure from the market to deal at this expensive level relative to the risk in total fundamentals.
Additionally, TRIN breached into a new low, here too explicitly stating that confidence is relatively high at this new level. but this may be temporary, and a sustained residence UNDER the prior support may provide the visual support to express true market confidence, IMHO. Until then, the trading level remains tentative, speculative and risky, for reversals remain higher probabilities than continuation of any bullish trend.
NAAD, NAHL:
Nasdaq new high/lows and advance/declines lines in the chart are indicating the same resistance expectation. While the NAHL is smoothed and not as clear about resistance levels, the NAAD line (pink) is clearly indicating a resistance level right at the current trading level.
OVERALL - Again, all indicators have culminated to a point of congestion, whose denouement is expecting to come when the fat lady Fed steps onto the stage and sings her highly anticipated rate song. Speculative minds on the street are setting this event to occur sometimes this summer. Until then, the opening scene belongs to even battle between bulls and bears.
- Dalcindo
$COMPQ, NAAD, NAHL, TRIN - 36-Month, DAILY Chart:
- Dalcindo
Re: $USD, SPX, and Direxion's ETFs:
Nice article; highlights important point about the foreign exchange "wars".
Looking at the USD, its position on the your DAILY lower Bollinger band suggests that it might unwind towards the upside.
Technically speaking, I mentioned several weeks ago that the USD chart was signaling a top near $81.00. Now that it did so, there remains considerable resistance for the single currency to find further support.
For instance, the top occurred right at the WEEKLY 200-EMA, a level that rebuked further advance, despite a three week consolidation and attempt to cross over that significant line.
Correspondingly, the RSI topped near the 60-level, which for a weekly signal can be regarded as significant and worrisome for the buck.
For now, one redeeming aspect of the weekly chart is USD's ability to remain ABOVE its 9-EMA.
Indeed, a low currency level will work in favor of US exporting of goods and services, which would be regarded as more affordable to consumers abroad, but in the same token the spur in stock value may also contribute to inflationary pressures, as cash pours in, revenue increase, and the economy gets into a higher gear.
On a broad level, the S&P 500 has reached such a high as to test its historical overhead resistance. The question here is whether the overall market can truly align value with worth (i.e.: whether the total aggregate shares are driven by hope vs. intrinsic value of the constituent listed companies).
For now, the S&P has reached and surpassed that HIGH intra-day, but failed to close above it, reflecting a heated warring ground between bulls and bears. Gnawing and goring is the event of the month, and until the dust settles and the S&P remains and consolidates ABOVE the high, there will be neither satisfaction for the bulls, nor comfort for investors seeking a higher ground for investment in US equities, IMHO:
$USD - 36-month, WEEKLY Chart:
$USD - 10-Year, MONTLY Chart:
$SPX - Direxion's BULLS ETFs: BGA, TNA, ERX and FAS
- Dalcindo
Re: USD, EUR, UUP, UDN - At Rest, Or Set TO Resume Long-Term Bearish Trend?
At this point, the USD has pulled back significantly to validate a short-term bullish trend (GREEN channel), which formed since the low of DEC 2009 - see chart #1 below.
FUNDIES:
Despite bullish fundamentals, the recent pull-back came as a great surprise, considering that the Euro counter-part has been battered by major fundamental threats within the Eurozone. As the financial ministers are meeting next week, all ears may turn to some explicitly supportive comments towards the Greek situation. If not, there may still not be enough fuel to propel the USD to higher heights. Some more fundamental news needs to come from the US to give it an extra humpf and allow the USD to remain ABOVE its current technical level.
TECHIES:
While the decline concluded the week right at the bottom of the short-term bullish channel, a relative strength expression of $XEU vs. $USD points to a similarly relevant event: As the USD lost ground against the EUR, the relative pair reached a HIGH right at the upper border of the bearish channel (right at the 1.726 relative strength value) in chart #2 below.
Looking at a different perspective, the directional PowerShares Dollar index Bullish/Bearish Fund chart below (chat #3 expressed also in relative strength) jump down to the bottom border of the short-term bullish channel without any clear indication that this down-trend trend has concluded. In fact, the secondary indicators in any of these charts are not reassuring to the USD bulls.
OUTLOOK:
The question now remains: Is this decline a recoil prior to a new uptrend? Or, is the long-term bearish trend taking over as it prepares to push the USD to lower lows?
In my opinion, things could not get any worse in the European countries, however, another sentimental development seems to be shaping up in the Forex world: Investors all over the globe may gradually flee the USD as the supreme currency and turn to higher yielding sources. Although this concept may not be at play on a day-to-day basis, this is certainly something to keep in mind.
For the moment, the USD is getting higher fundamental marks from an economy that seems to be recovering sluggishly, but still positively, and this against the EUR which is battered by a patchwork of countries whose stressed economies has gone so far as even questioning the validity of a common currency. While the United States of America tries to re-establish a stable stance, the United States of Europe is shaking and knee-wobbling. This alone is good enough to believe that USD will remain a favorable currency for the time being, IMHO.
USD: 12-Month, DAILY Chart:
XEU:USD (Relative Strength) - 12-Month, DAILY Chart:
UUP:UDN (Relative Strength) - 12-Month, DAILY Chart:
- Dalcindo
Weekly Scans - Week of 15 MAR 2010:
Bucking Bull:
ACAS American Capital Ltd. NASD
ALD Allied aCapital Corp. NYSE
BEE Strategic Hotel & Resorts Inc. NYSE
DENN Denny's Corp. NASD
SCLX Sino Clean Energy Inc. NASD
WEL Boots & Coots, Inc. AMEX
WTSLA Wet Seal, Inc. NASD
ZANE Planet Zanett Inc. NASD
Count: 8
Bull Pop:
ACAD Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. NASD
PLUG Plug Power, Inc. NASD
Count: 2
ROW x STO:
Count: 0
Your support towards this weekly effort is much appreciated by voting at the bottom of this link:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281
Thank you and have a great trading week!!!
- Dalcindo
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A QUICK note on the scans:
- Bucking Bull scans for bullish trend reversals that "buck" the trend;
- Bull Pop looks for unusual "pops" in priorly bearish trending stocks;
- ROW x STO screens out positively divergent stocks over weeks (The name merely stands for: RSI Over Weeks cross-reference against weekly Slow Stochastics).
DISCLAIMER:
I chose to scan stocks only at the close of each trading week, assuming that stocks that continue bullishly into the week-end are likely to remain in the trend. Therefore, although these scans occur at the close of the trading week, their bullish activities might have been underway several days prior.
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DAA
That's all right, Generic.
Good luck ... Let me know how I can help.
- Dalcindo
Yes, and herein lies the problem. I'm not sure where this index is published. I can't find it on the NYSE web site, either.
But I won't clog your board while I search for it. Thanks for the discussion.
http://ir.nyse.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=129145&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1250346&highlight=
You know, I think that you are right on both counts: losing money and making shorts very rich.
I have used the relative strength of the short-term VXX against the mid-term VXZ futures in order to test a sentimental/directional correlation with the market.
So far, I got a nice inverse correlation as it should be, but nothing revealing in terms of directional foretelling.
D.
... And this link:
http://www.ipathetn.com/VXX-overview.jsp
- Dalcindo
No, VXX and VXZ do not come with any explanation as to what constitutes each of them.
Since both are generated from NYSE, have you looked into the NYSE website?
Here is some info:
http://www.nyse.com/events/1233833024604.html
- Dalcindo
does Stockcharts have the symbol for whatever short term futures index VXX is supposed to be tracking?
I have never heard of a 30-60 day volatility index.
Is there such an index?
Yes, both VXX and vxz are ETNs, sorry
D.
I was trying to chart and track the actual underlying index for VXX.
VXX is an ETN, not an index, right?
Is it any of these?
--
Symbol Company Name Type Exchange
$VXD.X CBOE DJIA Volatility Index
(INDEX) Index Market Data Express
$EVZ.X CBOE EuroCurrency Volatility
(COMMON STOCK) Index Market Data Express
$GVZ.X CBOE Gold Volatility
(INDEX) Index Market Data Express
$VIX.X CBOE MKT VOLATILITY IDX
(CBOE MKT VOLATILITY IDX) Index Market Data Express
$VXN.X CBOE Nasdaq Market Volatility Index
(INDEX) Index Market Data Express
$VXO.X CBOE OEX Volatility Index
(INDEX) Index Market Data Express
$VXV.X CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index
(COMMON STOCK) Index Market Data Express
$VXB.X CBOE Volatility Index
(INDEX) Index Market Data Express
$VSX.X NDX VOLT IDX SET
(NDX VOLT IDX SET) Index CBOE
$RSL.X RUT VOLT IDX SET
(RUT VOLT IDX SET) Index CBOE
$RVX.X CBOE RUS 2000 VL Index Market Data Express
$DDB.X Jumbo CBOE DJ Volatility Indx Bid Price
(INDEX) Index Market Data Express
----
$VXV.X and VXX and VXN
VXN - This index is generated on the NASDAQ;
VXX - This index is generated on the NYSE
VXZ - This index is generated on the NYSE
For the purpose of charting the relative strength, I have used the two board-related indices: VXX vs. VWZ.
I am not sure about the utility I would have from VXN for the moment.
- Dalcindo
$VXX, $VXZ - What timeframe? Weekly, daily, 15-min.?
- Dalcindo
"Specifically, the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures™ Index" = VXX according to the iPath web site, but it looks to me like VXX doesn't track VIX there is major slippage.
I dont know offhand what index VXZ tracks
Which indices are you referring to exactly?
- Dalcindo
VXN and VXZ are both red today. VIX isn't.
Must be the reverse split news?
DO you have a chart that trackes the indices?
http://www.ipathetn.com/VXX-overview.jsp
The S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures™ Index TR is designed to provide access to equity market volatility through CBOE Volatility Index® (the "VIX Index") futures. Specifically, the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures™ Index TR offers exposure to a daily rolling long position in the first and second month VIX futures contracts and reflects the implied volatility of the S&P 500® Index at various points along the volatility forward curve. The index futures roll continuously throughout each month from the first month VIX futures contract into the second month VIX futures contract.
Re: ASTC 5-Year, WEEKLY Chart:
Major historical resistance overhead, but the momentum lines are suggesting that the current ascendig triangle will provide the continuation pattern into a break-out past the $4.00-$4.10 RZ.
Using Mary Kay Autin's institutional interpretation of A/D (retail), OBV (Registered Shareholder) and ChiOsc lines (Market Maker), registered shareholding positions are leading the buying pressure - I would infer that some savvy money is getting into position and may provide the rocket fuel to ignite and break through the next stratosphere level, IMHO:
ASTC - 5-Year, WEEKLY Chart:
- Dalcindo
Weekly Scans - Week of 08 MAR 2010:
Bucking Bull:
HEPI Health Enhancement Products Inc. NASD
PTSH PTS Inc. NASD
SOMX Somaxon Pharmaceuticals NASD
SSTI Silicon Storage Technology, Inc. NASD
Count: 4
Bull Pop:
GMO General Moly, Inc. AMEX
GSPG GoldSpring, Inc. NASD
MOVE Move, Inc. NASD
Count: 3
ROW x STO:
AIB Allied Irish Banks Plc NYSE
HBAN Huntington Bancshares Inc. NASD
IRSN Irvine Sensors Corp. NASD
Count: 3
Your support towards this weekly effort is much appreciated by voting at the bottom of this link:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281
Thank you and have a great trading week!!!
- Dalcindo
-----------------------------------------------------------------
A QUICK note on the scans:
- Bucking Bull scans for bullish trend reversals that "buck" the trend;
- Bull Pop looks for unusual "pops" in priorly bearish trending stocks;
- ROW x STO screens out positively divergent stocks over weeks (The name merely stands for: RSI Over Weeks cross-reference against weekly Slow Stochastics).
DISCLAIMER:
I chose to scan stocks only at the close of each trading week, assuming that stocks that continue bullishly into the week-end are likely to remain in the trend. Therefore, although these scans occur at the close of the trading week, their bullish activities might have been underway several days prior.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
DAA
Re: $COMPQ Double-Top ... - GOOG, MSFT, AAPL, QCOM Charts:
Looking at the major US indices below (DJIA, SPX, NYSE, Nasdaq, Russell), it seems that that the technology and/or smaller companies are carrying indices higher than their older large caps counterparts.
QCOM:
One company in particular is QCOM, which has slammed the QQQQ down against its other more bullish components (AAPL, GOOG, MSFT) - See chart below: "BDH ETF: Broadband Holders", where all components of that ETF are falling under a remarkable overhead bearish trendline pressure. Considering that QCOM is a top element of $COMPQ, it may continue to pull the Nasdaq down and prevent that index from breaking out of the January high.
Bull Trap?
At this point, the technical risk (which you have pointed out) are the gaps which seem to dominate the charts. The last gap may represent the very last bullish leap before a downtrend (effectively creating a bulltrap), not only because the market has not yet broken out of the bearish trend, and that your $INDU chart shows a definitive downturn per the 100 x 30-MA bearish cross, but also because of an unshakable collective doubt regarding the economies of this and other related countries. So, the historical high may be the last stop before a reversal. And such a neat and clear double-top would not bode well for the overall markets, and the bulls.
Overall - The charts remain marred with overhead bearish resistance lines, negative divergences. The highs achieved in the Russell 2000 for instance does not reflect the "state of mind" within larger and more respected indices, such as the S&P 500. Until a breakout occurs in such a benchmark, then doubt of a meaningful market recovery will prevail, IMHO:
(Following chart source: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281 )
SPX, Nasdaq, DJIA Chart:
SPX, NYSE, Russell Chart:
BDH EFT - Broadband Holders Chart:
QQQQ Chart:
AAPL - Weekly Chart:
GOOG - Weekly Chart:
MSFT - Weekly Chart:
QCOM - Weekly Chart:
- Dalcindo
Re: $INDU Daily: bearish 100 x 34 MA cross
Hi, TTG!
Your 100x34 MA signal is pretty powerful, especially when you put it in its historical context (e.g.: The last time the $INDU got a 100 X 34 MA bear cross was actually a really good time to jump out of the market, summer 2008, about 2 months before the Lehman Bankruptcy......Then at the 34 X 100 MA bull cross it was a great time to get back in (early May).....Now finally after nearly a year we are getting a 100 X 34 bear cross again...).
I agree with you here, that the long-trend remains bearish and that the recent rally may fatigue as it nears its recent historical high. Technically, this would achieve a bearish double top worth heeding.
FUNDIES:
Counter-current to this technical development are the recent optimistic US economic data, which are behind that rally as the charts are nearing a breakout. Although I am a pure technician and trade strictly out of the charts, I like to pay attention to the fundamental noise around.
Of the most discreet fundamental noises are data reflecting the impact on consumers. In fact, US retail sales report on Friday 12 MAR 2010 represents the next risk event that should spark more energy up or dampen it all, as large traders are likely to look at this for near-term and mid-term market direction.
TECHIES:
Chart-wise, the 10600 level that you have highlighted may provide some early indication whether institutional buying pressure is gearing up towards a market breakout, but the 100-34 MA in your chart remains the truth serum, IMHO.
Other technical event in the charts are the overbought conditions in RSI and MACD; decreased volume trend since DEC 2008; and BEARISH ascending wedge formation (or possibly a bearish ascending flag with pole represented as the three large bearish candles since High of January), both of which represent bearish continuation pattern, suggesting a resumption of the major bearish trend.
Can't wait for next week. Please, keep posting that and other charts. Besides being really nice, I am very curious to see how that 100-34 MA unfolds.
Thank you!
- Dalcindo
Re: 1/$VIX vs. $SPX:
Although a 12-month $SPX view would reveal a steady up-trend channel, an expanded view of that chart reveals a bearish ascending wedge, which concurrently comes to a tip as $SPX nears its historical overhead resistance.
Technically speaking, as a continuation pattern, the bearish wedge formation would justify the interim rally that characterized the past 12-month period, and provides concerning hint at further risks of a bearish trend resumption.
While a breadown of the past rally is not a sure thing, there seems to be a lot of technical development (i.e.: resistance line over $SPX as well as MACD's, a failing RSI, and a bearish ascending wedge) that have recently compiled to favor that scenario, IMHO:
- Dalcindo
Re: $VIX, $SPX / $INDU / $COMPQ - Head-Butting Respective Overhead Resistance Line:
Hi, TTG!
Waited for market closing before replying ...
Markets are definitely testing their overhead resistance; some headway into it today on all three indices ( $SPX / $INDU / $COMPQ), with pullback towards end of day.
WEEKLY charts on same indices still under bearish pressure, despite hopeful FED comments and improving national fundamental data.
Technically speaking, VIX relative strength chart below pits short-term against mid-term sentiments. As VIX reaches a very low level of relative strength values, positive divergences are calling for some unwinding.
In the context of VIX's suggestion that the S&P might turn downwards, the following three major indices' WEEKLY charts add further credence to a high probability of a market-wide softening, considering the subduing impact that their respective long-term resistance has had recently.
A break-out would have to occur based on several fundamentals: more optimistic FED's statement regarding near and long-term monetary policy changes; improved world-wide economies that would have an increased semand upon our production capabilities; easing of middle eastern issues to relieve energy-costs associated with transport/production; and increase in our consumption basis - All of which are not likely to improve over the next 4-6 months, IMHO.
VIX - Short vs. Mid-Term VIX Futures - 12-Month, Daily Chart:
$SPX - 36-Month, WEEKLY Chart:
$INDU - 36-Month, WEEKLY Chart:
$COMPQ - 36-Month, WEEKLY Chart:
- Dalcindo
Follow-Up (2): VIX - Short/Mid-Term Futures - 12-Month, Daily Chart:
VIX seems to have build a solid base at this level; pre-rally pattern formation is heralding a HIGH probability for a rally in this volatility index, firming up bears stance on a possible market down-turn:
VIX - Short/Mid-Term Futures - 12-Month, Daily Chart:
- Dalcindo
Re: SIRI - WEEKLY Chart - BULLISH
Expecting SIRI to bounce off of the recent bearish fundamentals regarding poor car production levels, FOLLOWED by a bullish note of Ford (F), which has surpassed GM for the first time in more than a decade.
SIRI continues to look bullish considering its bounce near RSI's 50-level (per daily chart not included here), indicative of persistent buying support at such a discount price level, IMHO.
Note that recent LOW was sustained by the narrow UT channel in WEEKLY chart below:
(Source: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Ford-sales-jump-outsells-GM-apf-4195968314.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode= )
SIRI - 36-month, WEEKLY Chart:
- Dalcindo
Follow-Up: QCOM, $COMPQ and QQQQ - QCOM bounced off of bullish channel bottom - BULLISH
Hi, 3x!
Yesterday, I warned shorts about the possibility that QQQQ might find its saving grace in QCOM, despite the fact that this top dog had single-handedly brought that index down.
As you mentioned today, QCOM did bounce handsomely. Chart below shows how solid the bullish channel (drawn on 01 AUG 2008!) has held in providing this momental support.
Overall, Nasdaq still has a lot of work overhead, which at this time remains a near impossible task unless world-wide fundamentals fires up some new energy in this index (See: $COMPQ "36-Month, WEEKLY" and "29-Year, MONTHLY" as well as QQQQ's "5-Year, WEEKLY" Charts below):
QCOM - 5-Year, MONTHLY Chart:
$COMPQ - 36-Month, WEEKLY Chart:,
$COMPQ - 29-Year, MONTHLY Chart:
QQQQ - 5-Year, WEEKLY Chart:
- Dalcindo
Re: SPX - Nearing upper border of DT channel:
Hi, 3x!
ETF constituents of SPX (IN\X)are tearing through overhead resistance levels. At the same time, SPX is acting as a composite for all four ETF and running towards its overhead resistance.
In fact, as of this writing, WEEKLY $MID has broken through its long-term resistance line, whereas WEEKLY $SML is at the validation point - Not quite there yet.
This week should be a real pivotal moment for SPX and for the US Dollar as well, which has punctured through prior support levels in the EUR:USD pair and carved out a new base prior to resuming its range-bound trading:
OVERALL - Bearish dominant trend will get tested, but there are yet too little momentum behind current rally to expect a forceful break-through (albeit a consolidation prior to such break-out could still occur) - SPX's RSI is flirting with the 60-line and tapers off of it, corresponding to a significant, multi-year RSI overhead resistance level. Interestingly, PPO is also about to test its 12-month overhead resistance line in the DAILY chart below:
SPX - 12-Month, DAILY Chart:
- Dalcindo
Re: QQQQ - BEARISH, but SHORTS BEWARE!!!:
What's up with QCOM ... Or, more like: what's down with it?
According to the daily QQQQ chart below, QCOM has not found the bottom and continue to dig deeper and deeper.
In fact, this second-ranking stock within the QQQQ has managed to break the QQQQ's bullish rally all on its own, which started in MAR 2009, but per this chart, ended in the third week of JAN 2010 (violation of the BLUE supportive trendline).
The Line Chart:
Despite the bearish breakdown of QCOM, the line elements within the QQQQ chart below does manage to speak of hopeful momentums.
CAVEAT - Interestingly though, the saving grace for QQQQ may actually come from QCOM itself, as per the WEEKLY chart below, this stock has closed this week right at its support level. So, shorts, BEWARE!!!
1 - While MSFT shows that it did carve a bottom,
2 - AAPL is renewing its bullish run towards prior HIGHs,
3 - and GOOG just finished defining a strong supportive bottom.
(AAPL, QCOM, MSFT and GOOG charts posted below)
OVERALL - I agree with your PUTs directional favor, Lang. QQQQ remains a down-trending index, until proven otherwise:
QQQQ - Top 4 Holdings: AAPL, QCOM, MSFT, GOOG - 12-Mo., Daily:
AAPL - 5-Year, MONTHLY chart:
QCOM - 5-Year, MONTHLY Chart:
MSFT - 36-Month, WEEKLY Chart:
GOOG - 36-Month, WEEKLY Chart:
- Dalcindo
Re: SPX: Direxion - Bearish channel validation:
A quick note of revision on the SPX chart below: I added a new bearish channel based on validation points and correlation with secondary indicators.
Of note:
1 - TNA (SPX's Small Cap ETF) marks a double-top at current value (here, expressed in relative strength with SPX;
2 - ERX (SPX's Energy ETF) is nearing its resistance line overhead (orange dashed line)
3 - FAS (SPX's Financials ETF) is striving to remain over support level (based on prior resistance and break-through)
4 - BGU (SPX's Large Caps ETF) is testing prior support level (from last week of DEC 2009)
OVERALL - SPX and its constituent ETF are at or near pivotal areas. If these areas get violated, a new trend should emerge, which could easily be considered a renewed bullish momentum. However, if these points are not violated, this should reinforce the recent bearish sentiments of a continued downtrend, IMHO:
Direxion ETFs Relative Strength - DAILY Chart:
- Dalcindo
Re: $RIFIN - At Critical HIGH; Meets Resistance:
RIFIN made a lower high in the first week of JAN 2010; broke support in the third week of that same month, and is currently testing channel high, while MACD is mimicking the same with its own overhead resistance line.
If the current trend continues, the expectation is for another low once RIFIN is done carving out another lower high.
Outlook - BEARISH
- Dalcindo
Re: SPX & Direxion Bulls ETF's- Second Attempt at 50% Fiby: BEARISH
This past week, SPX has not been able to retake the ground it had lost in prior week. That decline occurred at the all important 50% retracement level based on Fibonacci grid construction between the HIGH of OCT 2007 and Low of MAR 2009.
In fact, the highest retracement achieved a high this past JAN 2010, thus defining a significant overhead resistance line drawn in the chart below.
A lot of bearish development is resurfacing in the US and world-wide markets, all acting significantly on the definition of a new bearish channel described in both charts below:
SPX - 10-Year, MONTHLY Chart:
$SPX : Direxion ETFs Relative Strength - DAILY Chart:
- Dalcindo
Article - US Dollar at a Crossroads: Further Gains or Finally a Pullback?
Friday, 26 February 2010 23:35 GMT
By David Rodriguez
(Source: http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/usd/2010-02-26-2335-US_Dollar_at_a_Crossroads_.html )
Fundamental Outlook for US Dollar: Bullish
- US Dollar surges as S&P 500 tumbles, risk appetite worsens
- Yet late-week choppiness sees Dollar temper its gains, look forward to next week
- Critical week of forex market event risk may make or break Dollar resurgence
The US Dollar finished almost exactly unchanged against the Euro for the second time in as many weeks, slipping into Friday’s close despite sharp early-week advances. The Greenback nonetheless managed to match its 9-month highs and left its overall recovery intact. Yet the upcoming week promises far more volatility on a good deal of top-tier economic event risk—culminating in the always-market-moving US Nonfarm Payrolls report.
In recent months we have argued that the US Dollar was likely to recover against the Euro and other key counterparts on extremely one-sided bearish positioning and sentiment. Yet the tables have clearly turned in the Dollar’s favor; CFTC Commitment of Traders data shows Non-Commercials at a record net-long the US currency against the Euro. Such one-sided extremes may make it difficult for the Greenback to post substantial gains before a correction, but quite literally anything can happen in what promises to be an exciting week of forex trade.
The first of many tests for the US Dollar will come on Monday’s US Personal Income and Spending data as well as the later-morning ISM Manufacturing survey; large disappointments in either could potentially set the tone for the rest of the week’s trade. Recently-dismal Conference Board Consumer Confidence numbers paint a dreary picture for the future of domestic consumption, but spending and income numbers are forecast to show reasonable gains through the first month of 2010. Consensus expectations likewise point to reasonable strength in ISM Manufacturing data. Suffice it to say, however, lofty expectations beget disappointments and we could see considerable volatility surrounding said event risk.
Markets will subsequently look to Wednesday’s key ADP Employment Change survey data as well as the market-moving ISM Services report. The former is expected to show that private companies shed 10,000 jobs from Payrolls through the month of February—the best such result since January of 2008. Steadily smaller job losses in the ADP report and official Nonfarm Payrolls data leave hope that we may continue to see improvements, but any sizeable declines could easily derail expectations for future recovery. The ISM Services Employment Index will likewise shed light on the state of the jobs market and help foreshadow what we may expect for Friday’s NFP numbers. Said index remains below the expansion/contraction 50.0 mark at 44.0, and it will be critical to see whether conditions improved for the all-important US Services sector.
Finally, the US Nonfarm Payrolls report promises a great deal of volatility not only in the US Dollar, but major financial markets are likely to see sharp price moves on any especially surprising results. It seems that financial markets are at somewhat of a crossroads. On the one hand, relatively steady improvements in economic data suggest that the worst is now past. On the other, heady gains in the S&P 500 and other key financial market risk barometers leave ample room for pullbacks. The week ahead should provide ample clarification on several key themes for the S&P 500 as well as the very highly-correlated US Dollar. - DR
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- Dalcindo
Re: COIN - Weekly Chart: BULLISH
(re-posting)
COIN is turning bullish, although there remains some much needed confirmation:
For one, price is expected to meet significant resistance at the dashed blue line.
For two, a minor hurdle awaits the expected rally at the bearish channel's midlines, a resistance area that may be minor and should occur prior to the more imposing "dashed blue" resistance line, IMHO.
Overall, indicators are turning positive following a shallow retracement, suggestive of bullish support all along recent technical developments.
COIN - 3-Year, Weekly Chart:
- Dalcindo
Weekly Scans - Week of 01 MAR 2010:
(Click on ticker name symbol for additional stock info)
Bucking Bull:
DSU Blackrock Debt Strategies Fund Inc. NYSE
ENT Enterra Energy Trust NYSE
GRT Glimcher Realty Trust NYSE
Count: 3
Bull Pop:
IWEB IceWEB, Inc. NASD
Count: 1
ROW x STO:
SECI Sector 10, Inc. NASD
Count: 1
Your support towards this weekly effort is much appreciated by voting at the bottom of this link:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281
Thank you and have a great trading week!!!
- Dalcindo
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A QUICK note on the scans:
- Bucking Bull scans for bullish trend reversals that "buck" the trend;
- Bull Pop looks for unusual "pops" in priorly bearish trending stocks;
- ROW x STO screens out positively divergent stocks over weeks (The name merely stands for: RSI Over Weeks cross-reference against weekly Slow Stochastics).
DISCLAIMER:
I chose to scan stocks only at the close of each trading week, assuming that stocks that continue bullishly into the week-end are likely to remain in the trend. Therefore, although these scans occur at the close of the trading week, their bullish activities might have been underway several days prior.
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DAA
Re: QQQQ and $COMPQ
Hi, 3x!
As always, I'll offer my unsolicited - albeit biased - opinion on the Q's.
I have been extremely bearish about this and other index. So, my chart interpretation remain bias to that side.
In the first two charts below, I have a hard time interpreting any clear bullish directional move, considering the current technical hurdles that are acting bearishly on price.
QQQQ WEEKLY Chart:
In the first chart, RSI is struggling to cross over its 60-level, while all other secondary indicators have completed lower highs - Correspondingly at that very point in the chart where price has met its bearish channel's upper channel resistance.
QQQQ DAILY Chart:
Similarly, in the second chart, RSI remains submitted under the effect of its resistance line overhead, whereas the corresponding price has failed to rally above the last quarter of the channel. Correspondingly, half of the major constituent of that index are down, whereas the other half has formed a lower high so far. Looking at the MACD and its histogram, both seem to be plateauing as the signal line is barely getting to the zero-level.
$COMPQ - MONTHLY and WEEKLY Charts:
The third (MONTHLY) chart below shows a significant historical resistance against $COMPQ advances in the future, whereas the fourth chart (WEEKLY) indicates a struggling RSI and much overhead resistance (same as that in the monthly chart) for price.
OVERAL - So, for the technical reasons above and a personal bias on the overall market, I remain contrarian to any bullish calls.
(Note though I do NOT currently hold any position in this or other stocks discussed above.)
QQQQ - Nasdaq 100 Trust - 60-Mo., Weekly Chart:
QQQQ - Top 4 Holdings: AAPL, QCOM, MSFT, GOOG - 12-Mo., Daily Chart:
$COMPQ - 29-Yr., Monthly Chart:
$COMPQ - 36-Mo., Weekly Chart:
- Dalcindo
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Message in reply to:
QQQQ Mar 2010 44.000 call
(QQQ100320C00044000)
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Re: Up-Grades ... GOOG: 36-Mo., Weekly Chart:
I continue to see growing overhead resistance for GOOG as it consolidates under the upper border of the bearish channel and remains under its 21-weekly EMA.
HOWEVER, there is also significant support ahead to make me a believer into the BULLISHness of this stock for the following technical opinions:
1 - Price continue to validate, but dwells ABOVE its long-term support line at the upper third of the bearish channel, resisting the pressure to break below that line;
2 - RSI is equivocal as it oscillates around the 50-line, but there are no clear momentum driving it towards a bearish range;
3 - A set of significant secondary indicators are coming together into a "Pre-Rally Pattern" formation, lending credence to the fact that current shallow decline is a consolidation happening prior to an uptrend.
OVERALL - Indicators are coming together to form a solid low at current price levels and indicating a likely rally over the next weeks, IMHO:
GOOG - 36-Month, WEEKLY Chart:
- Dalcindo
Re: FIN's: XLF, FAS, IYF - Continued BEAR trend
The financials looked better at the apex of their combined MAX expansion, even at a time when RSI weakened.
Since then, XLF, FAS, IYF have struggled against the SPX, even when the SPX is declining ever so slowly (See chart below highlighting the relative strength of these FIN's expressed against SPX).
Overall, financial stocks are getting anemic, under-performing the PSX since NOV 2009, and this at a rate that makes SPX look more attractive, despite its own bearish stance since mid-January 2010:
Financial ETFs Relative Strength Against SPX:
- Dalcindo
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