Sunday, March 14, 2010 12:52:36 PM
Re: $USD, SPX, and Direxion's ETFs:
Nice article; highlights important point about the foreign exchange "wars".
Looking at the USD, its position on the your DAILY lower Bollinger band suggests that it might unwind towards the upside.
Technically speaking, I mentioned several weeks ago that the USD chart was signaling a top near $81.00. Now that it did so, there remains considerable resistance for the single currency to find further support.
For instance, the top occurred right at the WEEKLY 200-EMA, a level that rebuked further advance, despite a three week consolidation and attempt to cross over that significant line.
Correspondingly, the RSI topped near the 60-level, which for a weekly signal can be regarded as significant and worrisome for the buck.
For now, one redeeming aspect of the weekly chart is USD's ability to remain ABOVE its 9-EMA.
Indeed, a low currency level will work in favor of US exporting of goods and services, which would be regarded as more affordable to consumers abroad, but in the same token the spur in stock value may also contribute to inflationary pressures, as cash pours in, revenue increase, and the economy gets into a higher gear.
On a broad level, the S&P 500 has reached such a high as to test its historical overhead resistance. The question here is whether the overall market can truly align value with worth (i.e.: whether the total aggregate shares are driven by hope vs. intrinsic value of the constituent listed companies).
For now, the S&P has reached and surpassed that HIGH intra-day, but failed to close above it, reflecting a heated warring ground between bulls and bears. Gnawing and goring is the event of the month, and until the dust settles and the S&P remains and consolidates ABOVE the high, there will be neither satisfaction for the bulls, nor comfort for investors seeking a higher ground for investment in US equities, IMHO:
$USD - 36-month, WEEKLY Chart:
$USD - 10-Year, MONTLY Chart:
$SPX - Direxion's BULLS ETFs: BGA, TNA, ERX and FAS
- Dalcindo
Nice article; highlights important point about the foreign exchange "wars".
Looking at the USD, its position on the your DAILY lower Bollinger band suggests that it might unwind towards the upside.
Technically speaking, I mentioned several weeks ago that the USD chart was signaling a top near $81.00. Now that it did so, there remains considerable resistance for the single currency to find further support.
For instance, the top occurred right at the WEEKLY 200-EMA, a level that rebuked further advance, despite a three week consolidation and attempt to cross over that significant line.
Correspondingly, the RSI topped near the 60-level, which for a weekly signal can be regarded as significant and worrisome for the buck.
For now, one redeeming aspect of the weekly chart is USD's ability to remain ABOVE its 9-EMA.
Indeed, a low currency level will work in favor of US exporting of goods and services, which would be regarded as more affordable to consumers abroad, but in the same token the spur in stock value may also contribute to inflationary pressures, as cash pours in, revenue increase, and the economy gets into a higher gear.
On a broad level, the S&P 500 has reached such a high as to test its historical overhead resistance. The question here is whether the overall market can truly align value with worth (i.e.: whether the total aggregate shares are driven by hope vs. intrinsic value of the constituent listed companies).
For now, the S&P has reached and surpassed that HIGH intra-day, but failed to close above it, reflecting a heated warring ground between bulls and bears. Gnawing and goring is the event of the month, and until the dust settles and the S&P remains and consolidates ABOVE the high, there will be neither satisfaction for the bulls, nor comfort for investors seeking a higher ground for investment in US equities, IMHO:
$USD - 36-month, WEEKLY Chart:
$USD - 10-Year, MONTLY Chart:
$SPX - Direxion's BULLS ETFs: BGA, TNA, ERX and FAS
- Dalcindo
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