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I am really bad at playing things short, I just think too much like a bull so trying to find some call candidates in the new listings yesterday and today. I like the momo/trend on the following, and am going to read up on the fundamentals tonight, and post some charts:
Tesco Corporation (TESO)
DG FastChannel Inc (DGIT)
Kaiser Aluminum Corp. (KALU)
KALU is my gut instinct play out of the group, based soley on the chart trend and Alcoa's Aluminum numbers.
CH, are these Long or Short play?
New Listings 4-12-2007:
BBND CQP DGIT KALU MDVN SNCR SPSS TESO
Bigband Networks, Inc. (BBND)
Cheniere Energy Ptnrs L.P. (CQP)
DG FastChannel Inc. (DGIT)
Kaiser Aluminum Corp. (KALU)
MEDIVATION Inc. (MDVN)
Synchronoss Technologies, Inc. (SNCR)
SPSS Inc. (SPSS)
Tesco Corporation (TESO)
OT:
Watching the train wreck:
10 day 1 minute chart. Close today 4/11/2007 was 0.0026. Will either be a slaughter or a squeeze, I am voting shareholder slaughter simply because pinksheets shareholders always seem to lose in the long run, seems the only constant one can bet on in Pinks:
BOT - Griz, if you bought those puts on the 21st, my hat is off to you for taking that risk on and being rewarded, hope you sold them, was a good short term play indeed. Looks like support reached at the 20 day MA. Looks bullish now. Nice play, even if just on paper.
CHK - After the 3/23/2007 insider purchase, the CEO purchased another large block.
3-29-2007: MCCLENDON AUBREY K (Chairman & CEO Director) buys $3,117,880
3-23-2007: MCCLENDON AUBREY K (Chairman & CEO Director) buys $6,123,884
Chart still in play: #msg-18229440 #msg-18229447
NTR - May have finally found suppport at the $2.30 level.
MXWL - Maxwell Technologies Inc.
Short Interest: 17.30%
O/S: 17.41M shares
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Maxwell Technologies, Inc. engages in the development, manufacture, and marketing of energy storage, and power delivery components and systems. The company's products include ultracapacitors, radiation-mitigated microelectronic products, and high-voltage capacitors. The company&'s ultracapacitors consists of BOOSTCAP ultracapacitors, which offer energy storage and power delivery solutions for applications in multiple industries, including transportation, energy, consumer and industrial electronics, and telecommunications. Its radiation-mitigated microelectronic products include high-density power modules, memory modules, and single board computers that incorporate its proprietary RADPAK packaging and shielding technology and architecture that enable them to withstand environmental radiation effects and perform reliably in space. Maxwell Technologies� CONDIS high-voltage capacitors include grading and coupling capacitors, and capacitive voltage dividers that are used to ensure the safety and reliability of electric utility infrastructure and other applications involving transport, distribution, and measurement of high-voltage electrical energy. It sells its products to original equipment manufacturers through both direct and indirect sales organizations in the North America, Europe, and Asia. The company was incorporated in 1965 under the name Maxwell Laboratories, Inc. and changed its name to Maxwell Technologies, Inc. in 1996. Maxwell Technologies is headquartered in San Diego, California.
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An article regarding relevant MIT research on ultracapacitors and potential applications for portable computing.
MIT Researchers Extend Computer Life Without Batteries
Researchers replace batteries with ultracapacitors to make long-running PCs.
Ben Ames (IDG News Service) 05 April, 2007 11:25:51
Researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology have found a way to extend the power life of mobile computers.
Instead of using batteries, they draw power from an electronic device called an ultracapacitor. The approach is still several years away from being used as the main electricity source for commercial laptops and handhelds, but is already used for backup power in many small consumer products.
"A number of electronic devices already use commercial ultracapacitors for specialized functions," said Joel Schindall, a professor in MIT's Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
"For example, a clock radio may use an ultracapacitor as a keep-alive source in case of power failure, and even the old Palm III used an ultracapacitor to retain its memory while the AA batteries were changed."
The new technology could shake up the retail computer business, where computer makers already compete for market share by boasting of more power-efficient machines.
Chip makers battle for business by launching more efficient processors like Intel's Centrino and Advanced Micro Devices' Turion, trading high performance speed for mobile endurance.
Hewlett-Packard Co. also says its customers demand longer run-times. The company announced Monday that its HP Compaq nx9400 notebook will run on three levels of battery packs. Those range from the standard, four-hour unit to a substitute battery that adds five more hours, and a clip-on, supplementary battery that adds another 10 hours.
The speed at which a battery charges is also important to users. HP says its enhanced, lithium ion battery can gain 90 percent of a full charge after just 90 minutes of being plugged into a wall outlet.
By comparison, a consumer with a cell phone powered by MIT's ultracapacitor could gain a complete recharge in just a few seconds, Schindall says.
The new device is called a nanotube-enhanced ultracapacitor, or NEU. It works by applying nanotechnology to an existing electrical device; the capacitor.
Generic capacitors store energy as an electrical field. That is more efficient than standard batteries, which get their energy from chemical reactions. Even more efficient is the ultracapacitor, a capacitor-based storage cell that provides quick bursts of instant energy. The drawback is size -- ultracapacitors need to be much larger than batteries to hold the same charge.
The MIT researchers solved this problem by taking advantage of the enormous surface area of nanotubes; molecular-scale straws of carbon atoms that enable ultracapacitors to store electrical fields at the atomic level. Storage capacity (and charging speed) in an ultracapacitor is proportional to the surface area of the electrodes, so the nanotubes provide a great leap forward.
Despite this promise, researchers say they still have three to five years more work before they can replace a computer's main battery.
One drawback is that the ultracapacitor provides direct current power. That is suitable for running power-off functions like a laptop's clock, but most desktop devices use alternating current for their main operations.
High cost could also be a problem at first, because of low quantity production and meager capital investment in manufacturing facilities, he said.
On the other hand, the device could clear these hurdles by finding customers across a variety of businesses. From cell phones to automobiles, the ultracapacitor could supplement fuel cell power sources by acting as an emergency reserve for peak power use.
"The eventual implications are profound," says Schindall.
LEND - Accredited Home Rises On Liquidity Moves
8:50 AM ET - Dow Jones News
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Shares of Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co. (LEND) rose 14% to $9.65 after the company said it closed a loan with Farallon Capital Management and disclosed other moves to raise its available financing capacity. Accredited Home said it had $350 million cash on hand after closing a $230 million financing transaction with Farallon and other moves. After the sale of $2.7 billion of loans and the Farallon deal, Accredited Home said it had originated $1.8 billion in loans this past quarter and repaid most of its warehouse facilities.
In a statement late Monday, the company also said it obtained a new $500 million warehouse facility from a "large commercial bank," renewed an existing facility with an investment banking firm for $600 million and is in talks with another investment bank regarding the possible renewal of an existing $650 million warehouse facility.
Accredited Home has been hit along with its peers as liquidity shortages have forced more than two dozen mortgage lenders to shutter operations over the past two months. The contraction is making it harder for consumers to get loans and has caused investors to pummel the stocks of companies with exposure to the sector. Accredited itself has cut back on some riskier loans, including those allowing borrowers to finance up to 100% of the value of their homes.
Separately, Grant Thornton LLP said it quit as auditor to Fremont General Corp. (FMT) and Accredited Home. Both companies said they have begun the process of seeking a new auditor.
Shares of Fremont General were trading 5.2% lower at $6.18 in pre-open electronic trading.
Cell Genesys Rises On Positive Phase II Data
Cell Genesys Inc. (CEGE) rose 17% to $5.03 after the company said survival rates for patients in two Phase II studies of its GVAX immunotherapy treatment for prostate cancer compared favorably with survival rates among those receiving the standard treatment.
The median survival length was 35 months for 22 patients with the specific type of prostate cancer who received the company's GVAX immunotherapy at doses similar to an ongoing Phase III trial, according to the final results of the second Phase II clinical trial.
Shares of Dendreon Corp. (DNDN), whose similar prostate cancer immunotherapy was recently favorably reviewed by an FDA panel, were trading 2% higher at $14.59.
Napster Rises As Company Ups Revenue Outlook
Napster Inc. (NAPS) rose 7.2% to $4.45 after the company raised its fiscal fourth-quarter revenue estimate to more than $28 million and said it ended the last quarter with more than 830,000 paid subscribers.
On Feb. 8, the online music retailer expected fourth-quarter revenue to exceed $26 million. A year earlier, Napster generated revenue of $26.8 million.
The Los Angeles company said Tuesday it added 40,000 net paid subscribers during the latest quarter ended March 31.
Stock Futures Rise As Oil Prices Fall
U.S. stock futures rose Tuesday, as some easing of tensions in the Middle East prompted a slide in oil prices to below $65 a barrel.
S&P 500 futures rose 6.70 points to 1440, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 46 points to 12495, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 10 points to 1800.
U.S. stocks edged higher on Monday, helped by a flurry of takeover activity, including the $29 billion acquisition of First Data Corp. (FDC) by Kohlberg Kravis Roberts. The Dow Jones industrials rose nearly 28 points, the Nasdaq Composite edged up six-tenths of a point and the S&P 500 added 3.7 points.
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
04-03-07 0833ET
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Weather - Initial Hurricane Outlook Updated:
Tuesday, March 27, 2007 3:50 PMHurricane Threat Looms for US Energy Production and Gulf Coast in 2007
AccuWeather.com's Bastardi: "Last Year Was Just a Breather"
STATE COLLEGE, PA, March 27, 2007 - AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi warns that theUS Gulf Coast, which avoided the wrath of major storms and hurricanes in 2006, is at much higher risk of destructive tropical weather this year. This could have significant implications for the areas recovering from the devastation wrought by the hurricanes of 2004 and 2005 - which included Katrina - as well as for energy prices, because of the significant energy production that occurs in the Gulf of Mexico.
Bastardi, who in March of last year correctly forecasted that the region would get "minimal" attention by that season's hurricanes, said that this year, "the Gulf and Florida face a renewed threat, and we will see more powerful storms across the board. We will not get anywhere near the amount of storms that we did in 2005, but it is the intensity of the storms we do get that will be of major concern."
"We'll see storms on the prowl in the Gulf again. The entire region - including New Orleans and other areas that are still rebuilding after Katrina - is susceptible to landfalling storms. Of concern to consumers everywhere is that there is so much oil and natural gas drilling and refining occurring in the Gulf. This year's stronger storms are likely to cause the kind of disruption that will be felt in wallets and pocketbooks."
As for the Northeast, Bastardi's 2006 forecast still holds: the region is likely be the target of storm strikes over the next ten years. "Last year the Northeast may have dodged a bullet, but unfortunately you can only be lucky for so long. We are in a pattern similar to that of the late 1930s through the 1940s, when the Northeast was hit by two major storms."
Last year, Bastardi forecast that the East Coast would be far more likely than the eastern and central Gulf to see hurricane activity, and indeed, most of 2006's ten storms tracked farther east than in 2005 - including Ernesto, which caused a half-billion dollars in damages in the region from North Carolina to New Jersey.
Asked about the diminished number of tropical cyclones compared to 2005, AccuWeather.com Director of Forecast Operations Ken Reeves said, "Keep in mind that in 1992, a year with very few storms, we saw one of the most destructive in recorded history - Hurricane Andrew. This year is shaping up to be one that features some potentially very powerful storms, so whether or not the quantity is there, the danger certainly is."
The development of an El Niño last year has been frequently cited as a reason that the 2006 hurricane season resulted in few landfalling storms, and the development of a La Niña this year is already causing some forecasters to project a higher-than-average number of tropical cyclones in 2007. Bastardi and Reeves believe that the El Niño/La Niña connection is given too much emphasis when these events are weak.
"Last year's season wasn't truncated because of an El Niño," said Reeves. "After all, there was a much stronger El Niño in effect in 2004, and that was a significantly more active hurricane season than last year. Similarly, a La Niña won't be the main driver of this year's hurricane season." Among many factors that came into play, last year's storms were weakened by drier-than-normal air and higher-than-normal levels of dust in the atmosphere over the Atlantic.
Bastardi instead points to the pattern of Atlantic Ocean water temperatures as a leading factor in determining the power of a hurricane season, as well as the overall cyclical trend of more extreme weather across the US. Specifically, he points to the recent hot, dry summers in the West and Plains as a precursor to increased Atlantic Basin hurricane intensity, one of the patterns identified by his comparative research of previous seasons.
"We are living in a time of climatic hardship," said Bastardi. "We're in a cycle where weather extremes are more the norm and not the exception. One of the ways this manifests itself is in the intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms. Last year was just a breather, because the overall pattern shows no sign of reversing in the near term."
The full AccuWeather.com hurricane season forecast will be available in early May, released in conjunction with the Second Annual AccuWeather Hurricane Summit in Houston, Texas.
Weather - Oil inches up on storm forecast
By Associated Press | March 28, 2007
NEW YORK -- Oil prices edged higher yesterday, topping the 2007 settlement high reached a day earlier after a report predicted more destructive storms along the Gulf Coast this hurricane season. Natural gas prices also jumped on the news.
Sign up for: Globe Headlines e-mail | Breaking News Alerts Continued tensions between Iran and the West also kept a floor under oil prices, while the market looked to today's weekly inventory reports from the Energy Department.
Light, sweet crude for May delivery inched up 2 cents to settle at $62.93, the highest settlement this year, on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose as high as $63.05.
Brent crude for May rose 19 cents to $64.60 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London.
AccuWeather.com said yesterday its chief hurricane forecaster expects this hurricane season to produce more powerful storms in the Gulf of Mexico, which could disrupt production of crude oil and natural gas in the area.
Natural gas leaped 24.9 cents to settle at $7.503 per 1,000 cubic feet.
"The market tried to go down all day, but it finally got a little boost from the hurricane forecast," said Phil Flynn, an energy analyst at Alaron Trading Corp.
© Copyright 2007 Globe Newspaper Company.
Blair May Step Up Diplomatic Pressure on Iran to Free Sailors
By Mark Deen
March 28 (Bloomberg) -- Prime Minister Tony Blair, having avoided arguing with Iran in public over its seizure of 15 British sailors and marines, may ratchet up pressure to end the six-day-old crisis by getting the U.K.'s allies involved.
Britain is seeking not to escalate the dispute into military confrontation. That means its next steps may include publishing satellite images showing its boats were not in Iranian waters and rallying other countries to condemn Iran at the United Nations, analysts and diplomats said. Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett will make a statement in Parliament in London at 12:30 p.m. today.
Blair's stance is backed by opposition politicians and reflects his limited military options and the lessons learned from defusing previous disputes with Iran. President Jimmy Carter's effort to free 52 Americans held in Tehran in 1980 cost the lives of eight marines and failed to recover any hostages.
``Some people may think it's time to take the gloves off,'' said retired Rear Admiral Richard Cobbold, who is now director of the Royal United Services Institute in London. ``I'm all for being tougher if it produces the right results, but there's no indication that's what will happen. It could well end up being a mess with a lot of blood spilled.''
Beckett, who cut short a trip to Turkey to help manage the situation, spoke in ``very robust terms'' to Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki by telephone yesterday, the Foreign Office said. The conversation was made public after Blair told Iran that the crisis will ``enter a different phase'' if the soldiers are not released. His spokesman Tom Kelly ruled out military action.
`Low-Key Approach'
``While this type of incident can lead to conflict, the government is conscious that it must not let that happen,'' said Dana Allin, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. ``Success will come with a low-key approach.''
Iran's Foreign Ministry raised hopes yesterday that the crisis could be resolved peacefully. ``The issue will be solved in a calm atmosphere,'' said the ministry's spokesman, Moammad Ali Hossein. ``We cannot predict how long it will take.''
Blair's government has succeeded in freeing those held in similar situations in the past. In June 2004, Iran detained eight British servicemen for three days after capturing them in the Shatt al-Arab waterway, which runs along the border between Iran and Iraq. Similarly, five members of staff at the British embassy in Ethiopia were released after 13 days on March 13 following diplomatic talks.
The cool, diplomatic approach reflects consensus among politicians, foreign-policy analysts and most of the British media. The Sun, Britain's best-selling tabloid newspaper, known for taking a hard line on defense matters, has avoided criticizing the government's handling of the matter.
`Quiet Diplomacy'
``We have to give a chance to quiet diplomacy to sort this out,'' William Hague, the opposition Conservative lawmaker responsible for foreign affairs, said yesterday on BBC News 24 television. ``I don't think threatening all kinds of consequences would be the best way to get our personnel out.''
Allies have also been keeping quiet. President George W. Bush has made no public statement on the seizure of the British sailors, and U.S. officials have avoided comment.
``I'm not going to comment on that situation; it won't help the resolution of it,'' U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said in Washington on March 23. ``Let's let it take its course. They need to be released.''
Cobbold, the retired British admiral, pointed out that even in 1980, the American hostages were eventually released.
`Low Profile'
``Don't put their lives in jeopardy for the sake of a bit of time,'' he said. ``If keeping a reasonably low profile gets the right result, that's the way to go.''
Complicating the situation this time is a push by the U.S., Britain and other members of the UN Security Council to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The council imposed new sanctions March 24, the day after Iran arrested the British personnel. The British government has sought to avoid linking the matters.
British and U.S. troops in neighboring Iraq and Afghanistan may be at risk if tensions mount.
``They need to keep this an isolated problem,'' said John Williams, a former official at the U.K. Foreign Office. ``All that matters is getting the people back.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Deen in London at markdeen@bloomberg.net .
Crude Jumps on Speculation of Iran Conflict, Which U.S. Denies
By Gavin Evans and Mark Shenk
March 27 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil in New York rose in electronic trading on speculation of a confrontation in the Persian Gulf between U.S. or British forces and Iran.
``The rumor is that the Brits went in for a rescue attempt on the Royal Marines and Navy guys,'' said Mark Waggoner, president of Excel Futures Inc. in Huntington Beach California, referring to 15 British military personnel seized by Iran on March 23. ``And we don't know if that's true.''
Prices erased most of their after-hours gain after the White House, State Department and the head of the U.S. command that oversees military operations in the Middle East, said they had no information about a naval incident between Iran and the U.S.
Crude oil traded at $64.12 a barrel at 6:24 p.m. in New York Mercantile Exchange electronic trading, up $1.19 from the day's settlement price of $62.93. The settlement price is set after the close of floor trading at 2:30 p.m. New York time. Transactions after 6 p.m. are considered part of the next-day's trading.
Five trades were done between $68 and $68.09 a barrel just before 5 p.m., for the highest intraday price since September.
``Right now the buyer of those barrels may not be very happy,'' said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates LLC, a consulting company based in Houston.
U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair said earlier that efforts to release the British personnel seized by Iran will enter a ``different phase'' if negotiations fail. The incident occurred as Iran fended off international pressure to suspend its nuclear program.
No Conflict
Jason Schenker, an economist with Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina, said that in addition to speculation that the British were staging a rescue effort for their personnel, there was concern that a U.S. ship might have been fired upon by Iran.
``There seem to have been some whisper rumors about some potential Iranian strike on a U.S. ship,'' said Schenker.
U.S. Navy Commander Kevin Aandahl, spokesman for the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, said there is no U.S. military activity in the Gulf outside of previously scheduled exercises. ``I've seen this happen before where there's a totally unsubstantiated rumor'' that has an effect on world markets, he said.
The Pentagon announced today that the aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis and its strike group entered the Persian Gulf to conduct the exercises with the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier strike force.
In Washington, State Department spokesman Tom Casey said, ``We are aware of no incidents of any kind involving U.S. and Iranian forces.''
National Security Council spokesman Gordon Johndroe said he wasn't aware of any incident involving U.S. and Iranian forces.
`Nervous'
``The reaction shows that we're nervous and not prepared for a military confrontation with Iran,'' said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in New York. ``We haven't priced in the risk of a war after all.''
Brent crude oil for May settlement rose 19 cents, or 0.3 percent, to close at $64.60 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures exchange, the highest close since Dec. 1.
Iran has the second-biggest proved oil reserves. Almost a quarter of the world's oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. The surrounding region, the Middle East, is responsible for almost a third of the world's oil output.
Iran's Foreign Ministry said the dispute over the detention of the British sailors and Marines by the Islamic republic will be solved in a ``calm'' manner, without specifying how long it may take.
``The issue will be solved in a calm atmosphere,'' said Mohammad Ali Hosseini, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman, in a phone interview today from Tehran. ``We cannot predict how long it will take to resolve the case.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Gavin Evans in Wellington at gavinevans@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: March 27, 2007 18:54 EDT
Gasoline Prices Soar on Refinery Trouble
© 2007 The Associated Press
NEW YORK — On a tear since mid-January, U.S. gasoline futures show no sign of slowing down, with refinery outages and low imports keeping supplies tight and traders gearing up for looming strong demand with the onset of the summer driving season.
Gasoline stockpiles have slipped in each of the past six U.S. government oil inventory reports, as refinery problems and seasonal maintenance hamper production at a time when imports are near two-year lows. That's pushed futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange up over 50 percent since Jan. 18, lending a layer of support under crude oil prices in the process.
The rally in futures has already helped push pump prices higher, though analysts say U.S. drivers won't see the kind of record retail prices seen in the wake of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. They expect about a further 10 percent run-up in futures prices, which should keep pump prices below $3 a gallon, before refineries start to churn out more gasoline in time for the summer.
Supply concerns are behind the rally, with some refineries around the country out of action due to technical or safety problems at a time when many are, in any case, undergoing seasonal maintenance. U.S. refinery utilization was at 86.3 percent of capacity as of March 16, the lowest for this time of the year since 2002, according to government data.
"At this time of the year, we should be in the low 90s. It looks like gasoline prices will run higher," said Edward Meir, an analyst with brokerage Man Financial in New York. "We're seeing draws in gasoline stockpiles week after week, and there are still refinery concerns _ every time one comes back on, another seems to go down."
The latest glitch in the seasonal ramp-up in gasoline production before the summer was a fire at BP PLC's giant oil refinery in Whiting, Ind., which is expected to shut key gasoline-producing units for between four and six weeks. The BP problems follow a mid-February fire at Valero Energy Corp.'s McKee refinery in Sunray, Texas, which put the 158,000 barrels-a-day refinery off line completely until April. The refinery will only be able to ramp up to about 70 percent capacity, where it will stay until the end of the year.
The two fires, along with a host of smaller unplanned outages have exacerbated a supply shortage expected amid the normal seasonal maintenance-related downturn in production.
Meir predicts futures for reformulated gasoline blendstock for oxygenate blending, or RBOB, to peak at between $2.20 and $2.25. Prices hit a seven-month closing high of $2.073 a gallon Tuesday.
Gasoline prices normally run up before the summer, but this year they started their rise about a month early, given an additional lift from rising crude oil prices, strong winter heating oil and gasoline demand and early refinery maintenance. Adding to pressure on inventory levels, U.S. gasoline imports have languished, despite higher prices. In the four weeks to March 16, imports averaged their lowest for a four week period for more than two years.
"I don't see any quick cap being placed on gasoline prices in the next few weeks," said Tim Evans, an oil analyst at Citigroup in New York. "You still have refinery throughput at relatively low levels and there are big questions in terms of imports."
Despite reports that European gasoline is being sent to the U.S. to chase higher prices, it is yet to show up in inventories in New York, where most imports arrive, partly because of strikes and seasonal maintenance. Europe, which is becoming decreasingly dependent on gasoline as a motor fuel, generally exports a large proportion of its production.
A French port-workers' strike has led some refiners to cut back on production and could affect seven refineries with a total of nearly 1 million barrels a day of refining capacity, or 7 percent of Europe's total. The strike comes at the start of Europe's refinery maintenance season, which is expected to cut more than 6 percent of total capacity between March and June, according to Hootan Yazhari, an analyst at Merrill Lynch.
"With much of this capacity being coastal (i.e. geared to export products from Europe to the U.S., Africa and the Middle East), the outages could provide support to product markets outside of Europe," Yazhari said in a research note.
Despite dwindling supplies, analysts expect the tightness to ease and most are forecasting U.S. gasoline futures will peak before June at around $2.30 a gallon, well-below RBOB's $2.505 peak in May 2006. At $2.30, average U.S. gasoline pump prices should stay below $3 a barrel, a level they crossed in each of the past two years.
"It's a charade we have every year: The market sees falling gasoline stocks and bids prices up" before refineries come out of maintenance, said Stephen Schork, publisher of the daily energy and shipping newsletter, The Schork Report. "They will then be making copious of amounts of gasoline for the summer driving season" and taking advantage of higher gasoline prices, which will in turn bring prices lower.
TSO - Tesoro Gets Antitrust OK To Buy Calif Sites From USA Pete
26 minutes ago - Dow Jones News
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES Tesoro Corp. (TSO) has received antitrust clearance from the U.S. Federal Trade Commission to buy 140 USA Petroleum retail sites located primarily in California, a terminal located in New Mexico and select sites in other states.
The FTC said Tuesday that it granted early termination on Monday of the waiting period required under the Hart-Scott-Rodino antitrust law.
Tesoro said in a press release on Jan. 29 that the purchase price of the assets and the USA brand is $277 million, plus the value of inventory at the time of closing, which is currently estimated to be $10 million - $15 million. Of the 140 retail sites, 125 use the USA brand and 15 use other major brands.
The Hart-Scott-Rodino law requires under certain circumstances that prospective acquirers of voting securities or assets apply for clearance from regulators. Requests for early termination or clearance are granted when the FTC and the Justice Department's antitrust division have decided against taking enforcement action during the waiting period.
San Antonio-based Tesoro is an independent refiner and marketer of petroleum products. The company operates six refineries in the western U.S., with a combined crude oil throughput capacity of 560,000 barrels a day.
-Ingrid Pedrick Lehrfeld, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-1361
Gasoline - Gasoline outlook drives prices up
Average cost rises for eighth straight week, to $2.61 a gallon
NEW YORK — The national average price for gasoline climbed for the eighth straight week, according to a government report released Monday.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that drivers paid an average of $2.610 a gallon for regular gasoline in the week that ended Monday, up from $2.577 the prior week.
Retail gasoline prices are 11.2 cents higher than they were a year ago at this time.
The pump price rose most drastically in the Rocky Mountain region, where average prices jumped 5 cents from the prior week to $2.538 a gallon. However, drivers on the West Coast paid the highest average price of $3.016 a gallon, up from $2.977 a week earlier.
In Houston, drivers were paying an average of $2.425 a gallon, up from $2.370.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, gasoline for April delivery gained nearly 7 cents to settle at $2.0677 a gallon — futures prices not seen since last September.
The retail price of gasoline has followed the futures market sharply higher in recent weeks. The trek upward has been spurred by a drop in U.S. gasoline inventories ahead of the summer driving season, when gasoline demand spikes and prices typically hit their peak.
However, some analysts believe that the market enthusiasm may be premature.
"I think we're seeing the grand finale of the preseason rally. Traders are chasing it higher, but cooler heads will prevail," Tom Kloza of Oil Price Information Service said.
Kloza doesn't expect the same kind of rally the market saw last year, when gasoline prices rose at least a penny a day from the start of spring to May.
Crude oil futures prices settled Monday at their highest level so far this year on tensions between Iran and the West after Tehran's detention of British naval personnel. A barrel of crude oil for May delivery rose 63 cents to settle at $62.91 a barrel.
"The situation in Iran is keeping the market on guard, but the market is also keeping it in perspective," said Phil Flynn, an energy analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. "There's not a lot of panic buying, just a lot of solid buying."
Iran is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' second-largest producer after Saudi Arabia.
Heating oil futures rose 6.5 cents to settle at $1.7761 a gallon, while natural gas prices slipped 1.5 cent to $7.254 per million British thermal units.
The Brent crude contract for May delivery gained $1.23 to settle at $64.41 a barrel in London
TINY - Harris & Harris Group Inc
Last: $13.01
Float: 19.54M
Company Background
Harris & Harris Group, Inc. is a venture capital company specializing in tiny technology that operates as a non-diversified business development company (BDC). The Company's investment focuses to achieve capital appreciation by making venture capital investments in early stage companies. As a venture capital company, the Company invests in and provides managerial assistance to its portfolio companies that have potential for growth. Harris & Harris Group makes initial venture capital investments exclusively in tiny technology, which it defines as microsystems, microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) and nanotechnology
CHK - Chesapeake Energy Corp
Last: $31.01
Float: 407.21M
Company Background
Chesapeake Energy Corporation (Chesapeake) is an independent producer of natural gas in the United States, and owns interests in approximately 34,600 producing oil and natural gas wells that are producing approximately 1.7 billion cubic feet equivalent (bcfe) per day, 92% of which is natural gas. The Company�s operations are located in the Mid-Continent region, which includes Oklahoma, Arkansas, southwestern Kansas and the Texas Panhandle; the Forth Worth Basin in north-central Texas; the Appalachian Basin, principally in West Virginia, eastern Kentucky, eastern Ohio and southern New York; the Permian and Delaware Basins of West Texas and eastern New Mexico; the Ark-La-Tex area of East Texas and northern Louisiana; and the South Texas and Texas Gulf Coast regions.
CHK TINY FCX TEX
(Insider Purchases 3/23/2007)
CHK - Chesapeake Energy Corp
Last: $31.01
Float: 407.21M
Company Background
Chesapeake Energy Corporation (Chesapeake) is an independent producer of natural gas in the United States, and owns interests in approximately 34,600 producing oil and natural gas wells that are producing approximately 1.7 billion cubic feet equivalent (bcfe) per day, 92% of which is natural gas. The Company�s operations are located in the Mid-Continent region, which includes Oklahoma, Arkansas, southwestern Kansas and the Texas Panhandle; the Forth Worth Basin in north-central Texas; the Appalachian Basin, principally in West Virginia, eastern Kentucky, eastern Ohio and southern New York; the Permian and Delaware Basins of West Texas and eastern New Mexico; the Ark-La-Tex area of East Texas and northern Louisiana; and the South Texas and Texas Gulf Coast regions.
TINY - Harris & Harris Group Inc
Last: $13.01
Float: 19.54M
Company Background
Harris & Harris Group, Inc. is a venture capital company specializing in tiny technology that operates as a non-diversified business development company (BDC). The Company's investment focuses to achieve capital appreciation by making venture capital investments in early stage companies. As a venture capital company, the Company invests in and provides managerial assistance to its portfolio companies that have potential for growth. Harris & Harris Group makes initial venture capital investments exclusively in tiny technology, which it defines as microsystems, microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) and nanotechnology
FCX - Freeport-mcmoran Copper & Gold Inc
Last: $64.70
Float: 193.65M
Company Overview
Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc., through its majority-owned subsidiary, PT Freeport Indonesia, is engaged in copper, gold and silver mining and production operations. The Company owns approximately 90.64% of PT Freeport Indonesia, and the Government of Indonesia owns the remaining approximate 9.36%. PT Freeport Indonesia mines, processes and explores for ore containing copper, gold and silver. It operates in the remote highlands of the Sudirman Mountain Range in the province of Papua, Indonesia, which is on the western half of the island of New Guinea. The Company's principal asset is the Grasberg minerals district. During the year ended December 31, 2006, PT Freeport Indonesia�s share of proven and probable recoverable reserves totaled 38.8 billion pounds of copper and 41.1 million ounces of gold, all of which are located in Block A.
TEX - Terex Corp
Last: $72.20
Float: 98.72M
Company Background
Terex Corporation (Terex) is a global manufacturer of capital equipment focused on delivering, customer relevant solutions for the construction, infrastructure, quarrying, mining, shipping, transportation, refining and utility industries. The Company operates in five segments: Terex Aerial Work Platforms, Terex Construction, Terex Cranes, Terex Materials Processing & Mining and Terex Roadbuilding, Utility Products and Other. On January 24, 2006, Terex acquired Halco Holdings Limited and its affiliates (Halco). On March 9, 2006, Terex's Unit Rig mining truck business entered into a joint venture with North Hauler Joint Stock Company Limited to produce high-capacity surface mining trucks in China. On April 4, 2006, Terex acquired Power Legend International Limited (Power Legend) and its affiliates, including a 50% ownership interest in Sichuan Changjiang Engineering Crane Co., Ltd., which designs, manufactures, sells and repairs cranes and other construction equipment and components.
RTK - Rentech Announces Results of Annual Meeting of Shareholders
Monday March 26, 4:05 pm ET
LOS ANGELES, March 26 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Rentech, Inc. (Amex: RTK - News) announced today the results of its Annual Meeting of Shareholders held on March 22, 2007 in Denver, Colorado. At the annual meeting, the shareholders adopted resolutions approving the following matters:
1. The election to Rentech's Board of Directors of Michael R. Ray and
Edward M. Stern to serve a three year term;
2. The potential issuance of 20% or more of Rentech's outstanding common
stock at prices of up to 20% below market value;
3. The approval of the amendment to the 2006 Incentive Award Plan to
increase the number of shares reserved for issuance under such plan by
3,000,000; and,
4. The ratification of the selection of Ehrhardt Keefe Steiner & Hottman
P.C. as the Company's independent registered public accounting firm
for 2007.
The final tabulation of the votes will be included in the next quarterly report that the Company files with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
About Rentech, Inc.
Rentech, Inc., a Colorado corporation formed in 1981, offers energy independence solutions by utilizing American resources to economically produce ultra-clean fuels. To execute this strategy, it will utilize its patented and proprietary Fischer-Tropsch gas-to-liquids/coal-to-liquids process for conversion of synthesis gas made from natural gas, coal, petcoke, biomass and other solid or liquid carbon-bearing materials into clean burning, ultra-low- sulfur and ultra-low-aromatic synthetic fuels.
Forward Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 about matters such as the Company's plans to commercialize its Rentech process technology. These statements are based on management's current expectations, and actual results may differ materially as a result of various risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause actual results to differ include those set forth in our prior press releases and our periodic public filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which are available via Rentech's web site at www.rentechinc.com. The forward-looking statements in this press release are made as of March 23, 2007; and Rentech does not undertake to revise or update these forward-looking statements, except to the extent that it is required to do so under applicable law.
For more information please contact: Mark Koenig, Director of Investor Relations, Rentech, Inc. at 303-298-8008, extension 116, or by email at mkir@rentk.com, or see the Company's website at: www.rentechinc.com; Kevin Theiss, CEOcast, Inc. at 212-732-4300 or by email at ktheiss@ceocast.com.
Oil Climbs Amid Mideast Angst
By Chuck Marvin
TheStreet.com Staff Reporter
3/26/2007 5:24 PM EDT
Crude oil and other energy futures jumped Monday in the U.S. as geopolitical tensions involving Iran rattled investors.
The May contract for light sweet crude gained 63 cents to finish at $62.91 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Reformulated gasoline moved 68 cents higher to $2.07 a gallon. Heating oil edged 7 cents higher to $1.78 a gallon.
The near-term natural gas contract fell 4 cents in the session to $7.25 per million British thermal unit.
Mounting tensions between Iran and the West are generating crude oil supply concerns among energy traders. Last Friday, 15 British marines and sailors were detained by Iranian soldiers for allegedly entering Iranian territorial waters without permission.
Over the weekend, various press outlets reported that Iran is considering issuing charges against the seamen. The British and U.S. governments have both called on the Iranian government to release the soldiers immediately.
Energy traders are concerned that Iran may use this recent event as an opportunity to take control over busy shipping lanes in the Straight of Hormuz, according to Dennis Gartman, publisher of The Gartman Letter. Roughly 15 million barrels of oil travel through the straight every day, Gartman wrote in a report.
Relations between Iran and the West were already unsettled because of Iran's persistent defiance of a United Nations mandate to halt its uranium-enrichment program. On Saturday the UN Security Council voted unanimously to broaden economic sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program. The new sanctions will target Iranian weapons exports and financial institutions.
Iran responded to the new sanctions by announcing on Sunday that it will reduce its cooperation with nuclear inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency. It also reiterated that it has no intention of suspending its atomic plans.
Also supporting energy prices were reports that various Australian oil and gas companies are temporarily shutting in crude oil production from oil fields in Western Australia ahead of the arrival of cyclone Kara. Roughly 160,000 barrels per day have been taken off line, according to analysts at Barclays Capital.
Energy stocks finished the trading session mostly higher on the back of the higher commodity prices. The CBOE Oil Index climbed 0.8% to 657.82.
ConocoPhillips (COP - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) advanced 0.5% to $69.56. Chevron (CVX - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) gained 1% in the session to $74.40, and Exxon Mobil (XOM - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) finished 0.6% ahead at $75.45.
Elsewhere, energy-investment firm Tortoise Energy Infrastructure (TYG - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) was downgraded by Ferris Baker Watts to neutral from buy, and its shares fell 0.9% at $38.58.
Tesoro Petroleum (TSO - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) was downgraded by Bear Stearns to peer perform from outperform, and by Deutsche Securities to sell from hold. Tesoro's stock was down 1.4% at $99.46.
Sector Snap: Refiners Shares Slip
Monday March 26, 12:38 pm ET
Tesoro, Sunoco Shares Take Hit From Analyst's Outlook for Weaker Refining Margins
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of oil refiners Tesoro Corp. and Sunoco Inc. took a hit Monday from analyst forecasts for weaker refining margins in coming weeks.
On an expectation that refining margins are poised to fall, Deutsche Bank analyst Paul Sankey downgraded shares of Tesoro and Sunoco. Tesoro shares are now "fully valued," he said, following steep climb in the stock price in recent months. He cut the stock to "Sell," as shares have overshot his $85 price target.
For similar reasons, Sankey lowered shares of refiner Sunoco to "Hold" after the stock hit his $72 price target.
Sankey said he believes "the long term investment case for refining is poor, that the medium term is risky and that the stocks should be traded on a short-term basis."
"Huge" crack spreads -- the difference between the cost of crude and the price at which refined products are sold -- have boosted refiners' shares in recent months, he said.
Sankey expects refiners' crack spreads to narrow in coming weeks as refiners end seasonal maintenance and increase their output. Crack spreads on the West Coast, a key market for San Antonio-based Tesoro, have already slid about $10 a barrel after a recent $40-a-barrel peak.
"We believe margins will fall in the near term, before settling in at a historically high level," he wrote in a note to clients.
Bear Stearns analyst Nicole Decker cut her ratings on Tesoro to "Peer Perform" from "Outperform," or "Buy." The margin-boosting effects of refinery outages and maintenance shutdowns are expected to wind down in coming weeks, leading to slimmer margins.
Shares of Tesoro slipped $1.78 to $99.06 in midday trading on the New York Stock Exchange. The stock has surged 53 percent since the start of the year to close above $100 on Friday.
Sunoco, based in Philadelphia, saw its shares shed $1.26 to $69.91 on the Big Board.
Elsewhere in the sector, shares of Valero Energy Corp. gained 22 cents to $63.87, while shares of Frontier Oil Corp. fell 18 cents to $32.90. Holly Corp. shares slipped $1.10 to $60.27.
A decline in the broader market amid weak housing data also pulled shares of refiners and other energy companies lower.
Oil prices gained 70 cents Monday to $62.98 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after earlier climbing above $63.
TSO - Tesoro Petroleum cut by Bear Stearns, Deutsche Bank
PrintDisable live quotesRSSDigg itDel.icio.usBy Steve Goldstein
Last Update: 5:23 AM ET Mar 26, 2007
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Oil refiner Tesoro Petroleum (TSO : Tesoro Petroleum Corporation
TSO100.84, +0.74, +0.7%) was downgraded both by Bear Stearns and Deutsche Bank. Bear Stearns cut Tesoro to peer perform from outperform, saying there's limited upside after piercing through its $100 price target. Deutsche cut Tesoro to sell from hold, saying the stock's tremendous run puts it at a significant premium to net asset value. Sunoco (SUN : sunoco inc com SUN71.16, +0.85, +1.2%) also was downgraded by Deutsche, to hold from buy, saying East Coast margins have begun to roll over and its trading call supports a move to more defensive names.
TSO, FTO, WNR, VLO, SUN - Gas prices at highest point since September
March 26, 2007
BY DAN THOMAS
BLOOMBERG
U.S. gasoline prices rose 6 cents the past two weeks to an average of $2.61 a gallon, the highest price since September, a survey of 7,000 filling stations nationwide has found.
Wholesale gasoline futures jumped above $2 a gallon Friday for the first time since August, pulled higher by crude oil. Oil accounts for about 55% of the pump price of gasoline. Gasoline futures also rose as strengthening demand and refinery maintenance shutdowns reduced inventories.
"The 6-cent rise comes from slightly higher crude oil prices and remaining tight gasoline supply from refinery repairs," said Trilby Lundberg of the petroleum analyst group Lundberg Surveys Inc., which conducted the survey.
"If crude oil prices allow, this may be it."
U.S. inventories of gasoline fell for a sixth consecutive week to 210.5 million barrels in the week ended March 16, the lowest since Dec. 29, the Energy Department reported on March 21.
TRMS - Chart
Trimeris Inc
Float: 15.56M
Most recent analyst opinion: 16-Mar-07 First Albany Downgrade Buy to Neutral
Company Overview
Trimeris, Inc. (Trimeris) is a biopharmaceutical company primarily engaged in the discovery, development and commercialization of a new class of antiviral drug treatments called fusion inhibitors. Fusion inhibitors impair viral fusion, a complex process by which viruses attach to, penetrate and infect host cells. If a virus cannot enter a host cell, the virus cannot replicate. By inhibiting the fusion process of particular types of viruses, like the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), the Company's first commercial product and its compounds under research offer a novel mechanism of action with the potential to treat a variety of medically important viral diseases. Fuzeon is the Company's first-generation HIV fusion inhibitor, developed in collaboration with F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd (Roche). Fuzeon is a 36-amino acid synthetic peptide that binds to a key region of an HIV surface protein called gp41.
TRMS - Insider transactions as of 3/25/2007
AYR - Insider transactions as of 3/25/2007
VEH - Insider transactions as of 3/25/2007
VEH - Valero L.P. and Valero GP Holdings, LLC to Present at the Platts California Fuel Supply Conference
Friday 03/23/2007 4:11 PM ET - BusinessWire
Valero L.P. (NYSE:VLI) and Valero GP Holdings, LLC (NYSE:VEH) today announced that Mary Morgan, Vice President of Marketing and Business Development of Valero L.P., will make a presentation at the Platts California Fuel Supply Conference in Long Beach, California on Monday, March 26 at 4:30 p.m. PT. A copy of the presentation will be available at www.valerolp.com and www.valerogpholdings.com in the Investors portion of the Web sites.
Valero L.P. is a publicly traded, limited partnership based in San Antonio, with 9,113 miles of pipeline, 87 terminal facilities and four crude oil storage facilities. One of the largest independent terminal and petroleum liquids pipeline operators in the nation, the partnership has operations in the United States, the Netherlands Antilles, Canada, Mexico, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. The partnership's combined system has approximately 80 million barrels of storage capacity, and includes crude oil and refined product pipelines, refined product terminals, a petroleum and specialty liquids storage and terminaling business, as well as crude oil storage tank facilities. For more information, visit Valero L.P.'s Web site at www.valerolp.com.
Valero GP Holdings, LLC is a publicly traded limited liability company that owns the two percent general partner interest, a 21.4 percent limited partner interest and the incentive distribution rights in Valero L.P., one of the largest independent terminal and petroleum liquids pipeline operators in the nation with operations in the United States, the Netherlands Antilles, Canada, Mexico, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. For more information, visit Valero GP Holdings, LLC's Web site at www.valerogpholdings.com.
SOURCE: Valero L.P. & Valero GP Holdings, LLC
Valero L.P., San Antonio Investors, Mark Meador, Senior Manager, Investor Relations: 210-345-2895 or Media, Mary Rose Brown, Senior Vice President, Corporate Communications: 210-345-2314 Web site: http://www.valerolp.com
AYR - Aircastle AYR Bear Stearns Outperform
Stock Rating Reiterations
Friday 03/23/2007 10:31 AM ET - Dow Jones News
TSO, FTO, WNR, VLO, SUN (revised)
Gasoline Refiners:
TSO
FTO
WNR
VLO
SUN
NFI - Large Cap News: Daily Market Alert for Novastar Financial Inc.
Friday 03/23/2007 2:37 PM ET - M2
NovaStar Financial seeks to bring a little cosmic harmony to its subprime clientele. Through subsidiary NovaStar Mortgage, the real estate investment trust (REIT) originates primarily single-family, nonconforming loans via a network of wholesale loan brokers and mortgage lenders throughout the country. (Noncomforming loans typically bring in higher origination fees and interest rates and are less subject to general interest rate levels.) The REIT handles the loan process from start to finish: Following origination, it securitizes and sells the loans and maintains contact with borrowers. NovaStar Home Mortgage brokers nonconforming and conforming loans for investors including NovaStar Mortgage.
Shares were down 5% subprime mortgage crisis may leave few independent players.
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The subprime mortgage crisis will likely decimate the crop of specialist companies that sprouted during the boom years of the sector, analysts said this week.
Companies like New Century Financial , NovaStar Financial and Accredited Home Lenders will probably be acquired or will shut down.
Bigger, more diversified mortgage banks such as Wells Fargo , Countrywide Financial and Washington Mutual will take their place, along with investment banks including Bear Stearns, Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers , the analysts said.
Subprime mortgages are sold to home buyers with lower credit scores. Surging house prices and record low interest rates earlier this decade, coupled with investors' growing need for high yielding assets fueled a boom.
Last year, subprime mortgages were a $600 billion business that accounted for roughly a fifth of all home loans, according to industry publisher Inside Mortgage Finance.
But as borrowing costs climbed and the housing market cooled, the subprime sector spiraled into a crisis.
Several lenders in the business have gone bankrupt, including Ownit Mortgage Solutions, ResMAE Mortgage and Mortgage Lenders Network USA.
Others, such as Equifirst and ECC Capital's mortgage unit, have been sold and more firms are on the block.
"It's unlikely that any of these mono-line subprime lenders will be around on a stand-alone basis in a year," Robert Napoli, an analyst at Piper Jaffray, said. "Weak players will disappear and the originators that are left will be backed by much stronger players with more capital." Big companies that offer a wide range of mortgages, such as Citigroup , Wells Fargo, Washington Mutual and Countrywide, will be left to dominate the subprime sector, along with investment banks like Bear, Napoli predicted.
The shakeout is well underway. Of the top 25 subprime mortgage originators last year, only three -- New Century, Accredited and NovaStar -- remain independent specialists. At least 10 have gone bankrupt, been sold or are for sale. Most of the rest are already owned by larger companies.
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All material herein was prepared by the Bellwetherreport.com, (Bellwether) based upon information believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed by Bellwether to be accurate, and should not be considered to be all-inclusive. The companies that are discussed in this opinion have not approved the statements made in this opinion. This opinion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. Bellwether is not a licensed broker, broker dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. Please consult a broker before purchasing or selling any securities viewed on or mentioned herein. Bellwether may receive compensation in cash or shares from independent third parties or from the companies mentioned.
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Oil prices, gasoline futures on upswing
Turmoil in Middle East, Nigeria adds to upward surge
By Stan Choe
The Associated Press
NEW YORK - Oil prices spiked above $62 a barrel Friday and gasoline futures continued to surge as unrest in the Middle East and Nigeria helped vault front-month crude prices to their highest level since December.
Light, sweet crude for May delivery gained 62 cents to $62.31 in midday trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after earlier climbing as high as $62.65.
The rise follows a surge of more than $2 on Thursday, after U.S. government figures showed refineries are boosting crude usage to make gasoline and other products.
Prices at the pump have risen recently as well, with a gallon of unleaded gas averaging $2.577 across the country, according to AAA and Oil Price Information Service. That's up from $2.278 a month ago and $2.511 a year ago.
The May contract for Brent crude jumped 69 cents to $63.20 a barrel on London's ICE Futures exchange.
"There's a good solid list of fundamental supports for the market," said Citigroup Global Markets energy analyst Tim Evans. "There's nothing on the other side of the scale."
At the top of the list was Britain's Ministry of Defense saying Iranian naval vessels seized 15 British sailors and marines in Iraqi waters. Britain said the personnel were "engaged in routine boarding operations of merchant shipping in Iraqi territorial waters," and had completed their inspection of a merchant ship when they were accosted by Iranian vessels.
Also adding to the market's worries was the kidnapping of three foreigners in southern Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil producer. Police said unidentified assailants waylaid a vehicle carrying an Indian and a Lebanese man in Warri and kidnapped them. In a separate incident, authorities said gunmen stormed a German construction firm in the main southern oil city of Port Harcourt and kidnapped a Dutch employee.
More than 150 foreign workers have been seized in the Niger Delta during a year of stepped-up militant attacks and rising crime. Militants say they are fighting to force the federal government to give more oil revenues to their region and release two leaders on trial for treason or corruption charges.
The focus back on geopolitical factors came after a U.S. inventory report indicated earlier this week that refineries are beginning to emerge from their seasonal maintenance period, after weeks of declining utilization, and will soon start demanding more crude oil ahead of the U.S. driving season.
The Energy Information Administration reported refineries operated at 86.3 percent capacity last week, up 0.7 percent from the prior week. Gasoline inventories, meanwhile, dropped by 3.4 million barrels last week to 210.5 million barrels.
"The best part for the bulls is that the steadily increasing demand for crude takes weeks to be turned into a rising tide of refinery output," Cameron Hanover's Peter Beutel wrote in a research note. That means crude oil bought Thursday won't leave the refinery gate as a finished product until May or June.
"If we do not see a steadily rising stream of imports, domestic refinery output cannot meet the demand we see in July and August," Beutel wrote.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
At area pumps
Self-serve regular price
Low | $2.369
Average | $2.446
High | $2.469
Average cost to fuel a vehicle with a 15-gallon tank
Current | $36.25
Month ago | $32.13
Year ago | $36.79
Source: www.aaa carolinas.org
Gasoline April futures as of 3/24/2007:
$BPENER - Chart (updated)
S&P Energy Sector Bullish Percent Index
RTK - Rentech, Inc. - 2007 Annual Meeting of Shareholders Presentation
http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/66/666/66629/items/236834/RTK2007_AGM_Final_2.pdf
CBOT - CME Confident On CBOT Deal, Not Reviewing Offer
March 22, 2007 14:48 ET (18:48 GMT)
(Updates throughout. Adds comments from analysts and latest share prices.)
By Jesse Thomas and Stephen Wisnefski Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--The chief executive of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. (CME) remains confident that the U.S. Department of Justice will sign off on its merger proposal with CBOT Holdings Inc. (BOT), and that the deal will close by the end of the first half of this year as planned.
Speaking Thursday during a conference call with analysts, CEO Craig Donohue also said that CME doesn't see any need to address the valuation of its offer for CBOT, because the counteroffer from IntercontinentalExchange Inc. (ICE) is "significantly inferior" to the CME-CBOT agreement
"CBOT shareholders are being offered a minnow-trying-to-swallow-the-whale alternative, fraught with execution risk and overstated synergies," Donohue said of ICE's offer, adding that ICE has exaggerated the regulatory hurdles that the CME-CBOT deal faces.
Atlanta-based ICE, an electronic marketplace that focuses on energy trading, a week ago announced an all-stock offer for CBOT valued at about $9.7 billion based on current share prices, or 12% higher than CME's bid. ICE's offer has led to uncertainty about the merger agreement between CBOT and CME, which was first announced last October and would create the world's largest derivatives exchange. Several analysts have said that CME would likely be forced to increase its offer to keep the deal with CBOT on track.
Richard Herr of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, said Thursday that, even though CME management did a convincing job of saying it feels its offer is fair, he still thinks there's a 50/50 chance the exchange will raise its bid. Howard Chen of Credit Suisse agreed that a higher bid could be justified, pointing out in a note to investors that CBOT's earnings power "has vastly improved" since the deal with CME was announced.
ICE Responds
The battle between ICE and CME, which are under pressure to expand quickly through consolidation, illustrates how hot a commodity CBOT has become. CBOT in recent years played second-fiddle to its faster growing hometown rival, but in recent months has seen a surge in trading volume, particularly in its agricultural products.
In the wake of the offer from ICE, CBOT shares have hit a string of record highs, moving as high as $199.70 during Wednesday's session. The stock was down 1.4% at $194.39 in recent trading, while CME was up 1.2% to $547.11 and ICE was down 0.6% to $129.04.
In response to Donohue's latest comments, ICE issued a press release with point-by-point rebuttals on the main criticisms made by CME.
ICE noted that it has smoothly integrated two exchanges through acquisitions, while "CME has no integration experience." The exchange also reiterated that has the flexibility to add a cash component to its CBOT offer, and that it expects to discuss that alternative with the Chicago exchange.
"CME's increasing attempts to discredit ICE don't change the fact that our offer is clearly superior - the ICE offer provides much higher current value, is pro-competitive, and will create a stronger business that we believe is better positioned for future growth," ICE said in its statement.
CME Meeting With CBOT Members
CME executives will meet with CBOT members and shareholders later Thursday to outline the weaknesses CME sees in the competing proposal. In the wake of ICE's bid, several members have said that the decision on whether to back the CME-CBOT agreement has become more difficult.
CBOT's board of directors on Monday gave authorization for the exchange to begin discussions and exchange information with ICE. CBOT, which has postponed its shareholder and member votes that were previously scheduled for April 4, said it stands by its current deal with CME. CBOT has said that it has "not withdrawn, modified or qualified" its recommendation that CBOT shareholders and members vote in favor of the CME deal.
Donohue reiterated Thursday that CME has "a definitive merger agreement" with CBOT and continues working toward integration. "We believe that CBOT's board will conclude, as we have, that (ICE's proposal) is inferior."
Donohue said that "ICE adds little or no value to CBOT as a merger partner or valuable currency," adding that a deal with ICE would limit CBOT's comparative future growth potential. He also said that the six-year-old Atlanta exchange could face difficulties in successfully completing a large-scale merger and integrating its operations.
Speaking during the same call, CME Chief Financial Officer James Parisi cast doubt on ICE's ability to obtain the $240 million in annual cost savings it says are possible through a deal with CBOT. "We believe the realistic estimate of synergies is about 55% to 75% lower than what ICE is portraying," Parisi said.
CME Refutes ICE On Exercise Rights, Metals
CME executives also refuted ICE's claims that its deal with CBOT would resolve a dispute between CBOT and the Chicago Board Options Exchange regarding exercise rights, which allow CBOT members to become members of the CBOE without purchasing a membership seat.
CBOT, which has filed a lawsuit against CBOE, is seeking to uphold its members' rights, which could give them access to CBOE stock and dividends as the options exchange transitions to shareholderholder-owned from member-owned status. CBOE is seeking approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission to extinguish the CBOT exercise rights, suggesting that CBOT will no longer have "members" as defined by the charter that created the right, following CBOT's merger with CME.
"We do not believe there is any concern with respect to the exercise right," Donohue said Thursday. The ICE proposal "offers nothing different or new" and doesn't provide a "guarantee" of preservation of the exercise rights.
In a new wrinkle to the dispute, however, Donohue added that CME would "consider an alternative structure if the CBOE says that structure will preserve the exercise right."
CME also disputed the idea that it has decided to abandon CBOT's metals trading business as part of the merger. CME established a partnership last year with Nymex Holdings Inc. (NMX) to trade energy and metals contracts on CME's Globex electronic platform.
"We have not made any determination on the CBOT's metals business," Donohue said.
ICE said in its proposal that it would "protect and grow the CBOT's metals complex," but Donohue said Thursday that nothing should be read into what ICE has said regarding its support of CBOT's metals business.
-By Jesse Thomas, Dow Jones Newswires; (312) 750 4117; jesse.thomas@dowjones.com
-By Stephen Wisnefski, Dow Jones Newswires; (312) 750 4142; stephen.wisnefski@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 22, 2007 14:48 ET (18:48 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 02 48 PM EDT 03-22-07
About to go eat dinner, but my first impression is that going short on a high momentum play like the derivatives trading exchange BOT given today's bullish reaction to the FED is probably a losing proposition, talk to you later about it though.
Cool Hand -
Wondering what you think about a short term Apr 200 itm put play on BOT.....??
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=bot&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p26640538091
TSO - Tesoro says California refinery's FCC is back
Wed Mar 21, 2007 5:39pm ET
SAN ANTONIO, March 21 (Reuters) - Tesoro Corp. (TSO.N: Quote, Profile , Research) said on Wednesday its 166,000 barrel per day San Francisco-area refinery was near full output as the plant's 70,000 bpd fluidic catalytic cracking unit was in production after an extended overhaul.
The FCC was restarted on Feb. 26 after the overhaul, but was shut again on March 3 when circulation problems developed, requiring more work.
OUTSIDE THE BOX - What goes boom must go bust
Commentary: U.S. housing collapse comes as liquidity dries up
PrintE-mailDisable live quotesRSSDigg itDel.icio.usBy Scott Reamer
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Mar 21, 2007
Scott Reamer works at Vicis Capital, a multi-strategy hedge fund in NYC.
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Mortgage marketing campaigns have been changed from "Money? Free!" to "Last four years of W2's - notarized!", font sizes have been reduced in print ads, get-rich-on-real-estate infomercials have been moved from prime time to 2am, your brother in law has finally clammed up. Indications, all, that something has changed - really changed - in the housing market.
Official news over the last several weeks that lenders from Countrywide (CFC )
FRE60.55, +0.49, +0.8%) would be tightening their lending standards in the subprime sector of mortgage originations positively begs the question: what's changed?
But before we can attempt to limn even the faint outlines of the answer, we need to countenance the conclusion that such question asking as: "Do you have an income?" and "Can I see proof?" has one and only one effect on credit supply and demand: a decrease.
And that means liquidity is drying up in the mortgage market.
The particular exit strategy of someone-will-buy-it-from-me-at-a-higher-price rests squarely on the next Mensa reject wrestling the required funds from a banker before he can exercise his herding instinct, sate his brain stem, and flood his circulatory system with endorphins. And if those bankers are now equipped with stethoscopes as they claim, that next buyer won't ever get his golden ticket. Which means someone is stuck with $2,350 per month in maintenance, taxes, insurance, and mortgage costs on an 'investment property.' And $3,775 when the re-set comes in late 2007.
When home prices stopped going up 12-18 months ago, the frustration was palpable but hardly fear inducing. Timelines were stretched for ROI, 'we'll use it as a vacation home' rationales started flooding forth, and travertine backsplashes suddenly went wanting. But things are different now, measurably so. And that difference is not just that the demand for credit to speculate on housing has declined. It's that supply is now contracting. And when a credit cycle starts seeing supply contract (liquidity declining), all sorts of things start to happen: speculation gets robbed to pay a tax to prudence.
But, really, what has changed? What has really changed?
It's not as if bankers don't have money laying around to extend or sweeten the terms of the new loans these home speculators now need. Hell, the Fed and Treasury just need to print it into existence. And certainly Senator Dodd has played his cards: he thinks Congress should help 2.2 million home owners who are getting squeezed from buying a home they couldn't afford in the first place (and apparently who are not English speakers also because existing federal regulations demand that every possible term and contingency in lending be laid out for borrowers).
So you have the Federal government's legislative AND executive branches (if you know which branch the Federal Reserve comes under please email me) wanting to help these folks. But, still, liquidity wanes.
Why? Time preference. Specifically aggregate time preference.
The bankers who sign the checks, the appraisers who value the property, the retiree who speculates on the property, the investment bank that pools the mortgages and tranches them, the rating agency that rates those pools, the other investment bank that securitizes the tranches, the rating agency that rates those securitized pools, the other investment bank that sells insurance on the securitized tranches, the pension/hedge fund that buys the pools/tranches/securitizations. All have the means to keep the game going - to effectively go back in time to the halcyon days of 2004 or the even the salad days of 2005. But that's not what's happening.
And it's not going to happen either. Whomever it was that first came to his/her senses in this credit madness is moot; it's the fact that his/her action -- that mortgage banker, that CDO trader, whoever -- catalyzed the opposite trend toward probity. After an orgy of credit-based risk taking, incented in almost every conceivable fashion by monetary and social institutions, the negative feedback effects of reduced liquidity are almost certain now to run their course in the opposite direction with potentially equal (or greater) costs. Booms turn to busts not because something 'happened.' They turn to bust because there is simply no other path.
It is said that when men go mad they do so all at once. But they gain their sanity slowly and one by one.
That credit supply is being tightened means we've passed the 'one-by-one' stage and we're approaching 'all-at-once.
Aloha Cool Hand....
Nice thread you've started here.
Being new to options I have only somewhat recently began trading them with real $....lol - was paper trading for awhile and just trying to get them all straight in my head. Still studying and reading McMillan. I have been quick to cash in on most plays I have done lately and am starting to use different strategies in the beginning to limit my risk...using spreads and covered calls and such...few winners have been PCU, NUE, VLO, (calls) FMT (put) & others ...I am currently in CAT (call spread) and FLR (calls).....and I initiated a call spread today on NUE...
I am looking at a few leaps now to add....specifically LVS and EMC - I am also looking at a possible short term play on EMC today as well...
Can we discuss ETF's here? A couple possibilities could be PSJ or XLK if one is bullish on tech right now w/solid earnings from Oracle (ticked I didnt buy with the volume I saw pouring in today - ORCL - ....contemplated it, and went with NUE instead) ...Adobe's earnings were also solid (ADBE) - both stocks active in ah with orcl gaining 4 % (i think)
Anyway - thread.........................BOOKMARKED!
Top 10 gainers NASDAQ NYSE AMEX, 3/20/2007:
NASDAQ gainers:
HRSH - Hirsch International
AMGIZ - American Mold Guard
CIPH - Ciphergen Biosystems
LEND - Accredited Home Lend
CSNC - Cardinal State Bank
TCHCZ - 21st Century Holding
AERT - Advanced Environment
AVRX - Avalon Pharmaceutica
CRWS - Crown Crafts Inc
VRSO - Verso Technologies
NYSE gainers:
ACS - Affiliated Computer
GOT - Gottschalks Inc
GFA - Gafisa SA
FMT - Fremont General Corp
GTN - Gray Television Inc
ALJ - Alon USA Energy Inc
NFI - NovaStar Financial
BGG - Briggs & Stratton Co.
BFR - BBVA Banco Frances
AVR - Aventine Renewable Energy
AMEX gainers:
PRW - Pro-Pharmaceuticals
PLX - Protalix BioTherapeu
GEE - Global Entertainment
ASY Elecsys Corp
WEL - Boots & Coots
DRV - Debt Resolve Inc
RIV - Riviera Holdings Cor.
VSF - Vita Food Products
ILE - Isolagen Inc
RBY - Rubicon Minerals Cor
TSO - DJ Tesoro's Smith Wants Refiners To Stimulate Policy Discussion
SAN ANTONIO, Texas (Dow Jones)--The U.S. needs to cultivate policies that stimulate investment in fossil fuels, Tesoro Petroleum Corp. (TSO) chairman Bruce Smith told refiners Tuesday.
"I'm not suggesting that we throw in the renewables towel," Smith said, addressing over 1,000 industry players at the National Petrochemical and Refiners' Association annual meeting. "To reduce future supply risk, we should seek a prudent balance of supply sources," he said. In particular, he said the industry needs to work with policy makers to pursue a favorable investment environment for the development of new fossil fuels.
The speech was Smith's first foray into industry-leadership oriented speeches, focusing outside of Tesoro. With the company's expanding presence on the U.S. West Coast, the company's position in the industry has changed, an executive said, clearing the way for Smith to deliver his message Tuesday.
Smith focused on addressing common misconceptions about refinery margins, capacity growth and the need for renewables, and urged other refiners to do the same.
"Fossil fuels are readily available and will be the major component of our energy supply for many years to come," he said. While much public focus has been given to the profits of large oil companies, Smith said the focus has been diverted from investment risks and the timeline required to see capital returns on exploration projects.
In refining, he said, the timeline for expansion can be shorter than the timeline for exploration and production products, but to guarantee return on investment, stable margin environments must be maintained for nine to ten years, total. Uncertainty around climate change, possible negative margin impact of renewable fuel supply, and current elevated project costs make it difficult for refiners to commit to projects with long lead time, Smith said.
"We realize that there will be many voices in the debate about emissions and renewables," he said. "However, it is vital that our voice be heard and not overlooked," he said. Smith urged the NPRA members to join with other energy advocacy organizations, like the American Petroleum Institute, and of other industrial and consumer groups in the U.S.
Rather than focusing on energy independence for the U.S., Smith urged the industry to strive for energy security by "ensuring that we have a healthy economy and that our industries are able to compete in the global marketplace."
-By Jessica Resnick-Ault, Dow Jones Newswires; 713-547-9208; jessica.resnick-ault@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 20, 2007 12:43 ET (16:43 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 12 43 PM EDT 03-20-07
Crude Oil - DJ UPDATE: OIL FUTURES: Nymex Crude Settled Near 7-Wk Low (Adds settlement prices)
By Matt Chambers
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Crude oil futures settled near a seven-week closing low Tuesday, as U.S. refinery maintenance and unplanned outages cut short-term demand and led to forecasts of increased crude inventories.
The front-month April light, sweet crude contract, in its last day of trading, settled $2.52 a barrel lower than the May contract, which analysts said indicated demand for crude is low now, but seen picking up in coming months.
"Refineries aren't scheduling deliveries for this time of year, and are rather trying to line them up" after plants that are down for seasonal scheduled maintenance come back on line, said David Kirsch, an analyst at PFC Energy in Washington.
The April crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 14 cents, or 0.2%, higher at $56.73 a barrel. The May contract, which will take over as the front-month contract Wednesday, lost 45 cents to settle at $59.25 a barrel.
Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange fell 32 cents to $60.20 a barrel.
RBOB gasoline futures,which have been the standout performer of the oil markets in the past two months, fell from a seven-month intraday high after earlier failing to rally above $2 a gallon.
Front month April reformulated gasoline blendstock for oxygenate blending, or RBOB, fell 1.6 cents, or 0.8%, to $1.9421 a gallon. Earlier in the day prices rose to $1.985 a gallon, the highest intraday price since Aug. 22. Front month heating oil fell 1.97 cents, or 1.2%, to $1.6687 a gallon.
Analysts said they still believe there is strength in gasoline prices. "RBOB prices must get to a level that attracts supply from other places," said Tom Bentz, an analyst and broker at BNP Paribas in New York. "We may not be there yet."
Traders are now focused on inventory data due Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EDT from the federal Energy Information Administration, which is expected to report gasoline stockpiles fell by 1.6 million barrels last week, according to a survey by Dow Jones Newswires. That would be the sixth straight weekly fall for gasoline.
Crude oil stockpiles are seen rising by 1.4 million barrels; distillates, which include diesel and heating oil, are expected to fall by 1.1 million barrels; and refinery runs are seen gaining by 0.6 percentage point.
Following are prices for selected Nymex and ICE contracts and their comparison to values at the prior day's settlement. Highs and lows include levels hit in overnight trade.
Prices for crude oil are in dollars a barrel and the change is in cents; prices for Nymex products are in cents a gallon and the changes are in points; prices for ICE gasoil are in dollars a ton and the change is in cents.
Nymex Prices:
Contract Settle Change Vs Low High
Monday
Apr crude oil 56.73 +14 56.10 57.58
May crude oil 59.25 -45 59.15 60.18
Apr heating oil 166.87 -197 166.66 171.08
May heating oil 166.52 -202 166.34 170.65
Apr RBOB 194.21 -160 193.75 198.50
May RBOB 189.12 -79 188.55 191.90
ICE Prices:
Contract Settle Change Vs Low High
Monday
May ICE Brent 60.20 -32 60.00 61.06
Jun ICE Brent 61.07 -30 60.90 61.86
Apr gasoil 529.50 -275 528.00 535.50
May gasoil 533.00 -325 532.00 539.25
-By Matt Chambers, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2062; matt.chambers@dowjones.com.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 20, 2007 16:50 ET (20:50 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 04 50 PM EDT 03-20-07
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