Blair May Step Up Diplomatic Pressure on Iran to Free Sailors
By Mark Deen
March 28 (Bloomberg) -- Prime Minister Tony Blair, having avoided arguing with Iran in public over its seizure of 15 British sailors and marines, may ratchet up pressure to end the six-day-old crisis by getting the U.K.'s allies involved.
Britain is seeking not to escalate the dispute into military confrontation. That means its next steps may include publishing satellite images showing its boats were not in Iranian waters and rallying other countries to condemn Iran at the United Nations, analysts and diplomats said. Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett will make a statement in Parliament in London at 12:30 p.m. today.
Blair's stance is backed by opposition politicians and reflects his limited military options and the lessons learned from defusing previous disputes with Iran. President Jimmy Carter's effort to free 52 Americans held in Tehran in 1980 cost the lives of eight marines and failed to recover any hostages.
``Some people may think it's time to take the gloves off,'' said retired Rear Admiral Richard Cobbold, who is now director of the Royal United Services Institute in London. ``I'm all for being tougher if it produces the right results, but there's no indication that's what will happen. It could well end up being a mess with a lot of blood spilled.''
Beckett, who cut short a trip to Turkey to help manage the situation, spoke in ``very robust terms'' to Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki by telephone yesterday, the Foreign Office said. The conversation was made public after Blair told Iran that the crisis will ``enter a different phase'' if the soldiers are not released. His spokesman Tom Kelly ruled out military action.
`Low-Key Approach'
``While this type of incident can lead to conflict, the government is conscious that it must not let that happen,'' said Dana Allin, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. ``Success will come with a low-key approach.''
Iran's Foreign Ministry raised hopes yesterday that the crisis could be resolved peacefully. ``The issue will be solved in a calm atmosphere,'' said the ministry's spokesman, Moammad Ali Hossein. ``We cannot predict how long it will take.''
Blair's government has succeeded in freeing those held in similar situations in the past. In June 2004, Iran detained eight British servicemen for three days after capturing them in the Shatt al-Arab waterway, which runs along the border between Iran and Iraq. Similarly, five members of staff at the British embassy in Ethiopia were released after 13 days on March 13 following diplomatic talks.
The cool, diplomatic approach reflects consensus among politicians, foreign-policy analysts and most of the British media. The Sun, Britain's best-selling tabloid newspaper, known for taking a hard line on defense matters, has avoided criticizing the government's handling of the matter.
`Quiet Diplomacy'
``We have to give a chance to quiet diplomacy to sort this out,'' William Hague, the opposition Conservative lawmaker responsible for foreign affairs, said yesterday on BBC News 24 television. ``I don't think threatening all kinds of consequences would be the best way to get our personnel out.''
Allies have also been keeping quiet. President George W. Bush has made no public statement on the seizure of the British sailors, and U.S. officials have avoided comment.
``I'm not going to comment on that situation; it won't help the resolution of it,'' U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said in Washington on March 23. ``Let's let it take its course. They need to be released.''
Cobbold, the retired British admiral, pointed out that even in 1980, the American hostages were eventually released.
`Low Profile'
``Don't put their lives in jeopardy for the sake of a bit of time,'' he said. ``If keeping a reasonably low profile gets the right result, that's the way to go.''
Complicating the situation this time is a push by the U.S., Britain and other members of the UN Security Council to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The council imposed new sanctions March 24, the day after Iran arrested the British personnel. The British government has sought to avoid linking the matters.
British and U.S. troops in neighboring Iraq and Afghanistan may be at risk if tensions mount.
``They need to keep this an isolated problem,'' said John Williams, a former official at the U.K. Foreign Office. ``All that matters is getting the people back.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Deen in London at markdeen@bloomberg.net .
AI
