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Sino Gas International Holdings Inc.(fka SGAS) RSS Feed

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                       SINO GAS      

http://www.sino-gas.com

Profitability
Gross Margin (TTM) 29.1%
Net Profit Margin (TTM) 11.3%
 
Operating Margin (TTM) 13.1%
Pretax Margin (TTM) 14.2%
Valuation   Financial Strength
P/E excluding extraordinary items (TTM) 9.6x
P/E Normalized (MRFY) 13.0x
P/Sales (TTM) 0.9x
P/Tangible book (MRQ) 0.4x
P/Cash Flow (TTM) 5.5x
 
Current Ratio (MRQ) 0.64
Quick Ratio (MRQ) 0.62
LT Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.00
Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.04
Payout Ratio (TTM) 0.00
Management Effectiveness   Growth
Return on Assets (TTM) 3.9%
Return on Equity (TTM) 5.1%
Return on Investments (TTM) 5.1%
 
Sales (5Yr) --
Earnings Per Share (EPS)(TTM) -33.6%
Dividend Growth (5Yr) --
Income Statement   Per Share Data
Revenue (MRQ) 7.0M
EBITDA (MRQ) 1.5M
Earnings before taxes (MRQ) 1.5M
Net Income (MRQ) 1.2M
Normalized earnings before taxes (MRQ) 1.5M
Normalized Net Income (MRQ) 1.2M
 
EPS excluding extraordinary items (TTM) 0.09
EPS Normalized (MRFY) 0.06
Rev per share (TTM) 0.78
BV per share (MRQ) 2.24
Tangible BV per share (MRQ) 2.15
Cash per share (MRQ) 0.07
Cash flow per share (TTM) 0.12
Indicated Annual Dividend (US) --
Company Contact
Address
No.18 Zhong Guan Cun Dong St.
Haidian District
Beijing, BEJ 100083
Telephone (108) 260-0527

Form 10-Q for SINO GAS INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS, INC.

13-Nov-2009

Quarterly Report

 


Item 2. Management's Discussion and Analysis or Plan of Operation

The following discussion of our financial condition and results of operations should be read in conjunction with our consolidated financial statements and the notes to those financial statements appearing elsewhere in this Form 10-Q. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve significant risks and uncertainties. As a result of many factors, such as those set forth elsewhere in this Form 10-Q, our actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements.

Economic & Industrial Trend

We generate revenue from two sources: connection fees for constructing connections to our natural gas distribution network and sales of natural gas. Our connection activities are closely related to the development of the real estate industry in our targeted cities in China, given the fact that almost all of our connection fees are from new residential apartments. Natural gas facilities in new apartments are often required by local governments, which aim to promote the use of natural gas to improve local residents' quality of life.

We have experienced growth of our connection activities since inception of our business due to the Chinese real estate boom in the past years. However, starting 2007, the Chinese government implemented a series of policies and regulations to curb inflation and the property market. These policies, together with the worldwide financial crisis in 2008, has resulted a slowdown of the real estate market in China and our business, in turn, was affected in 2008. Recently, the Chinese government has changed its policies and prioritized boosting of the economy. The Chinese government has adopted new policies to address the slowdown of the real estate market, such as reducing stamp duties and transactions fees, lowering interest rates, and loosening bank lending policies. The Chinese government has also decided to inject stimulus package to boost the overall economy, including allocation of funds for mass housing projects. We have seen signs of recovery of the real estate market in China in recent months.

There are three pillars in Chinese economy: domestic consumption (both private and public), net exports, and domestic investment. Chinese Government RMB 4 trillion stimulus package has great impacts on China's domestic production and investments in the past several months. Signs of Improvements in investments, retail sales, and industrial output data are encouraging. Retail sales are rebounding in the past three months. Massive government spending on infrastructure boost China's Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) year on year growth average over 30% in the first five months of the year. However, exports and imports, continues to decline. Export decreased 26.4% in the month of May compared with the same period of last year. The export has been negatively affected by the economic slowdown of the U.S. and European countries. In summary, China's economy is gradually improving with government support.

GDP growth rebounded to 7.9 per cent in the second quarter from 6.1per cent in the first, which represented a 10-year low. In the third quarter, China's economic growth accelerated to 8.9 per cent.

Our gas users are composed of industrial and residential users. Gas sales to residential users are much less affected by economic and industrial factors and we anticipate that such sales would maintain stable growth in the future, due to the increasing pool of our residential customers. Gas sales to industrial users are subject to the performance of the end industrial users. As we expand into more cities, we expect to add more industrial users in the coming year if capital is available.

Material Opportunities

The gas distribution market is quite fragmented in the small to medium sized cities (population less than 1,000,000). We have been in active talks with potential project targets. The size of the projects varies from small cities, like the ones we have, to medium-sized cities. For small city markets, many of them are still untapped or undeveloped. The development of these markets is generally considered our major growth components. The current worldwide financial crisis has created pricing opportunities for us to acquire projects since we may have opportunities to acquire projects at attractive prices.

Most medium-sized or large cities have already been developed by large gas distributors or are still operated by state-owned companies. Acquisition opportunities exist in state-owned companies, as the central government encourages suppliers to turn them into privately-owned companies. The expansion into these markets would have material impact on the Company, increasing the Company's assets and revenues significantly. The Company would require additional fundraising for such acquisitions.

 


Material Challenges

There are a vast number of small-to-medium sized cities left undeveloped by our industry, but the competition is intense, as there are many small new players in the market attracted by the profitability and growth potentials of the natural gas business. Meanwhile, from time to time, we are also facing competitions from stronger competitors, as large city markets are getting saturated and our competitors are beginning to expand into smaller cities.

We have limited opportunities in developing into first-tier cities in China, as most of them have already been taken by other large gas distributors, such as Xin'ao Gas Co. Ltd (largest in China), in the past decade.

Still, potential residential users in small and medium-sized cities need to be educated about the benefits of using natural gas. Time is required for residents to realize the benefits of natural gas. This is especially true for new markets, where there is no use of natural gas. Small cities tend to be more reluctant for use of new energy resources, such as natural gas, than large cities, and residents depend more on coal.

China's energy market is highly regulated by the government with regard to the purchase and sale price of natural gas. When an adjustment to the purchase price by the government occurs, gas distributors will correspondingly increase the sale price, subject to a public hearing and government approval. The increase of natural gas price in China is lagging behind that in the international markets, which has soared in the past year. The Chinese government has not often adjusted natural gas price, but we cannot rule out the possibilities of the increase of natural gas prices in the future. We can adjust the sale price accordingly after the increase of purchase price. However, passing the increase to end users would make natural gas more expensive, as compared to other alternative energies. Thus this increase of price will deter our business development.

Risks in Short-Term and Long-Term Periods

In each of the cities we are developing and aiming to develop, the real estate market is the major factor that impacts us. Most of our residential customers are new home buyers. If the real estate market turns downward, the demands for new homes would decrease, resulting in fewer natural gas connections, and thus negatively impacting our business.

To reduce the Company's heavy dependence on connection fees, the Company is exploring opportunities to diversify our business by expanding into related areas, such as pipeline and gas station businesses. However, we do not expect to expand into these areas in large scale in the near future.

Liquidity and Capital Resources

Natural gas distribution is a capital-intensive industry that requires large amounts of capital for the construction of pipelines and gas stations, and the purchase of transportation vehicles. The Company would be constrained by inadequate capital when developing into larger cities or engaging in merger and acquisition activities. With such situations, the Company would require additional fundraising to finance such business activities.

Three Months Ended September 30, 2009 Compared to Three Months Ended September 30, 2008

During the three months ended September 30, 2009, net revenues were $6,988,621, representing an increase of 28.46 % from the same period of last year. Gross profit for the three months ended September 30, 2009 was $2,483,551, representing an increase of 8.93% from the same period of last year. Our operating income for the three months ended September 30, 2009 was $1,538,616, representing an increase of 9.65% from the same period of 2008. Net income for the three months ended September 30, 2009 was $1,208,636, representing an increase of 15.82% from $1,043,591 for the same period of 2008.

 


For the 3 months ended

                              September 30,                         2009            2008          Change                          US$             US$ Net Revenues           6,988,621       5,440,212        28.46 % Gross Profit           2,483,551       2,280,022         8.93 % Operating Income       1,538,616       1,403,225         9.65 % Net Income             1,208,636       1,043,592        15.82 % Gross Margin               35.54 %         41.91 %     -15.21 % Net Margin                 17.29 %         19.18 %   

Net Revenues

We generate revenues from two sources: connection fees for constructing connections to our natural gas distribution network, and sales of natural gas.

Total net revenues for the three months ended September 30, 2009 were $6,988,621, compared to $5,440,212 for the same period in 2008, representing an increase of 28.46%. The increase was mainly due to the increase of gas sales. During this period, we connected 7,239 new residential households to our gas distribution network, resulting in total connection fees of $3,342,309. Gas sales during the same period were $3,646,312. In comparison, we connected 6,857 new residential households to our gas distribution network for the same period in 2008, resulting in total connection fees of $3,401,014. Gas sales during the period were $2,039,198.

 


For the 3 months ended September 30, 2009 2008 Change (In $ million) US$ % US$ % %

  Net Revenues             6.99            100 %          5.44       100 %     28.46 % Connection Fees          3.34             48 %          3.40        63 %     -1.73 % Gas Sales                3.65             52 %          2.04        37 %     78.81 %   

The increases in our net revenues for the three months ended September 30, 2009 were mainly due to the increase of gas sales. With more customers added to our existing gas network distribution system, our gas sales increased accordingly.

Connection Fees

Connection fees during the three months ended September 30, 2009 were $3.34 million, representing a slightly decrease of 1.73% over the same period of 2008, accounting for 48% of the total net revenue as compared with approximately 63% of the total net revenue for the same period in 2008. The source of connection fees was mainly from the development of new residential users.

For the 3 months ended September 30, (in US$ millions) 2009 2008 Change US$ % US$ % %

          Connection Fees           3.34              100 %      3.40       100 %     -1.73 %         Residential Users        3.339            99.91 %      3.40       100 %     -1.81         Industrial Users         0.003             0.09 %      0.00         0 %   

Gas Sales

In terms of volume, we sold 10.55 million cubic meters of natural gas during the three months ended September 30, 2009, compared with 5.91 million cubic meters for the same period of 2008. In terms of monetary value, gas sales were $3.65 million during the three months ended September 30, 2009, accounting for 52% of total net revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2009, representing an increase of 78.81% over the same period of 2008. Gas sales to residential users increased 222.31% to $1.45 million for the three months ended September 30, 2009 from $0.45 million in the same period of 2008. Gas sales to industrial and commercial users increased 38.36% to $2.20 million for the three months ended September 30, 2009 from $1.59 million in the same period of 2008.

 


For the 3 months ended September 30, 2009 2008 Change ($ million) US$ % US$ % %

  Gas Sales                              3.65            100 %          2.04       100 %      78.81 % Residential Users                      1.45             40 %          0.45        22 %     222.31 % Industrial and Commercial Users        2.20             60 %          1.59        78 %      38.36 %   

Overall, the increases of gas sales were primarily due to the fact that our invested projects maintained steady development, and more users were added to our gas distribution network.

As our residential customer base grows, gas sales to residential users would increase gradually.

 

  Cost of Revenues  Cost of revenues for the three months ended September 30, 2009, which includes cost of connection and cost of gas sales, was $4.51 million, representing an increase of 42.56% from $3.16 million in the same period of 2008.                                     For the 3 months ended September 30,                                       2009                        2008              Change        ($ million)             US$             %              US$          %          %        Cost of Revenues          4.51            100 %          3.16       100 %      42.56 %        Connection Cost           1.04             23 %          1.16        37 %     -10.18 %        Gas Cost                  3.46             77 %          2.00        63 %       73.2 %   

Cost of Connection

The cost of connection decreased 10.18% to $1.04 million during the three months ended September 30, 2009 from $1.16 million for the same period in 2008.

 


Cost of connection includes depreciation of major pipelines, the cost of courtyard pipelines, valves, gas meters, and installation and maintenance fees.

Considering the city's overall planning and our long-term interests, the capacity of the gas pipeline network we designed to distribute gas for a city usually greatly exceeded the number of households we served at the beginning of our service, which makes the cost of connection, specifically the depreciation of pipelines and maintenance cost relatively high if the number of residential users connected is low. However, with the connection of more households to the gas pipelines, the average cost to each household will be gradually reduced.

Cost of Gas Sales

The cost of gas sales increased 73.2% to $3.46 million during the three months ended September 30, 2009 from $2.0 million for the same period in 2008.

The cost of natural gas sales includes the purchase and transportation of natural gas and depreciation of delivery equipment.

Gross Profit

During the three months ended September 30, 2009, gross profit was $2.48 million, representing an increase of approximately 8.93% from the same period of 2008. Gross profit from connection fees was $2.3 million for the three months ended September 30, 2009, accounting for 93% of total gross profit. In comparison, gross profit from connection fees was $2.24 million for the three months ended September 30, 2008, accounting for 98% of total gross profit. Gross profit from gas sales was $0.18 million for the three months ended September 30, 2009, accounting for 7% of total gross profit, compared to $0.04 million, accounting for 2% of total gross profit in the same period of 2008.

For the 3 months ended September 30, 2009 2008 Change ($ million) US$ % US$ % %

           Gross Profit          2.48            100 %          2.28       100 %       8.93 %          Connection            2.30             93 %          2.24        98 %       2.66 %          Gas                   0.18              7 %          0.04         2 %     356.62 %   

Gross margin during the three months ended September 30, 2009 was 35.54%, compared to 41.91% during the same period in 2008.

Gross margin for connection fees for the three months ended September 30, 2009, was 68.79%, compared to 65.85% in the same period of 2008.

Gross margin for sales of natural gas was 5.06% for the three months ended September 30, 2009, compared to 1.98% during the same period of 2008.

Selling and Marketing Expenses

Our selling and marketing expenses in the three months ended September 30, 2009 were $0.29 million, approximately 4.13% of our net revenues, compared with $0.23 million or 4.17 % of our net revenues in the same period of 2008.

General and Administrative Expenses and Other Expenses

General and administrative expenses were $0.66 million for the three months ended September 30, 2009, which were 0.93% higher than $0.65 million for the same period of 2008. Other expense was $23.5 thousand for the three months ended September 30, 2009, compared with other income of $58.3 thousand for the same period of 2008.

Operating Income

The operating income for the three months ended Sep.30, 2009 was $1.54 million, representing an increase of 10%, compared to the operating income of $1.4 million for the same period of 2008.

Income tax

Income tax was $0.31 million for the three months ended September 30, 2009, compared to $0.42 million for the same period of 2008.

 


Net Income

Net income for the three months ended September 30, 2009 was $1.21 million, representing an increase of 15.82% from $1.04 million for the same period of 2008. The improvement is mainly due to the increase of gross margin and reduction of income tax expense.

Nine Months Ended September 30, 2009 Compared to Nine Months Ended September 30, 2008

During the nine months ended September 30, 2009, our net revenues and gross profit were $19,357,933 and $5,283,466, respectively, representing an increase of 29.89% and 1.34%, respectively, from those of the same period in the previous year. Our operating income in 2009 was $2,671,882, representing an increase of 35.49% from 2008. Net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2009 was $1,975,407, representing an improvement of 201.12% from $656,031 for the same period of 2008.

For the 9 months ended September 30, 2009 2008 Change US$ US$ %

               Net Revenues           19,357,933       14,903,850        29.89 %              Gross Profit            5,283,466        5,213,597         1.34 %              Operating Income        2,671,882        1,972,024        35.49 %              Net Income              1,975,407          656,031       201.12 %              Gross Margin                27.29 %          34.98 %     -21.98 %              Net Margin                   10.2 %            4.4 %   

Net Revenues

We generate revenues from two sources: connection fees for constructing connections to our natural gas distribution network and sales of natural gas.

Total net revenues for the nine months ended September 30, 2009 were $19,357,933, compared to $14,903,850 for the same period in 2008, representing an increase of 29.89%. The increase was due to increase of both natural gas and connection fees revenue, resulting from the higher connection per unit we charged to the customer. During this period, we connected 17,452 new residential households to our gas distribution network, resulting in total connection fees of $7,494,485. Gas sales during the same period amounted to $11,863,448. In comparison, we connected 18,543 new residential households to our gas distribution network in 2008, resulting in total connection fees of $6,310,753. Gas sales during the period amounted to $8,593,097.

 


For the 9 months ended September 30, 2009 2008 Change (In $ million) US$ % US$ % %

           Net Revenues             19.36            100 %       14.9       100 %     29.89 %          Connection Fees           7.49             39 %       6.31        42 %     18.76 %          Gas Sales                11.86             61 %       8.59        58 %     38.06 %   

 

  Connection Fees  Connection fees during the nine months ended September 30, 2009 were $7.49 million, representing an increase of 18.76% over the same period of 2008, accounting for 39% of the total net revenue compared with approximately 42% for the same period in 2008. With regard to the source of connection fees, almost all connection fees came from the development of new residential users. We connected 17,452 residential users during the nine months ended September 30, 2009.                                      For the 9 months ended September 30,      (in US$ millions)                 2009                        2008             Change                                 US$             %              US$          %          %      Connection Fees              7.49            100 %          6.31       100 %     18.76 %      Residential Users            7.41             99 %          6.31       100 %     17.37 %      Industrial Users             0.09              1 %          0.00         0 %           %   

Such increase was primarily attributable to the higher average connection fees per unit compared to the same period of 2008. In the first half of 2009, we developed certain residential projects with higher connection fees per unit. The higher connection fees per unit helped to increase the total connection fees revenue.

Gas Sales

Overall, the increases of gas sales were primarily due to the fact that our invested projects maintained steady development, and more users were added to our gas distribution network. In terms of value, gas sales were $11.86 million during the nine months ended September 30, 2009, accounting for 61% of total net revenue in 2009, representing an increase of 38.06% over the year 2008. Gas sales to residential increased 129.56% from $2.07 million in 2008 to $4.76million in 2009. Gas sales to industrial and commercial users increased 9%, from $6.52 million in 2008 to $7.11 million in 2009.

 

                                                 For the 9 months ended September 30,                                                 2009                            2008                Change ($ million)                             US$               %               US$            %             % Gas Sales                                 11.86              100 %          8.59           100 %       38.06 % Residential Users                          4.76               40 %          2.07            24 %      129.56 % Industrial and Commercial Users            7.10               60 %          6.52            76 %        9.00 %   

 


 

  Cost of Revenues  Cost of revenues for the nine months ended September 30, 2009, which includes cost of connection and cost of gas sales was $14.07 million, an increase of 45.24%, from $9.69 million in the same period of 2008.                                     For the 9 months ended September 30,                                         2009                        2008           Change         ($ million)              US$              %            US$         %          %         Cost of Revenues           14.07            100 %       9.69       100 %     45.24 %         Connection Cost             2.67             19 %       1.98        20 %     34.83 %         Gas Cost                    11.4             81 %       7.71        80 %     47.92 %   

Cost of Connection

The cost of connection increased 34.83% to $2.67 million during the nine months ended September 30, 2009 from $1.98 million for the same period in 2008. This increase, which outpaced the 18.76% increase in connection fees revenue during the same period, is mainly due to higher cost of raw materials, parts, and installation and maintenance fees.

Cost of connection includes depreciation of major pipelines, the cost of courtyard pipelines, valves, gas meters, and installation and maintenance fees.

Considering the city's overall planning and the long-term interests of our company, the capacity of the gas pipeline network we designed to distribute gas for a city usually greatly exceeded the number of households we served at the very beginning, which makes the cost of connection, specifically the depreciation of fixed assets and maintenance cost greatly increase. However, with connection of more households to the gas pipelines, the average cost to each household will be gradually reduced.

Cost of Gas Sales

The cost of gas sales increased 47.92% to $11.4 million during the nine months ended September 30, 2009 from the same period in 2008, when it was $7.71 million. This increase, which surpassed the 38.06% increase in sales of natural gas during the same period, is largely due to the increase of rental expenses on gas delivery equipments and higher fuel costs.

The cost of natural gas sales includes the purchase and transportation of natural gas and depreciation of delivery trucks.

 


 

  Gross Profit  Gross profit slightly increased from $5.21 million in 2008 to $5.28 million for 2009.                                   For the 9 months ended September 30,                                     2009                        2008              Change          ($ million)         US$             %              US$          %          %          Gross Profit          5.28            100 %          5.21       100 %       1.34 %          Connection            4.82             91 %          4.33        83 %       11.4 %          Gas                   0.46              9 %          0.89        17 %     -47.84 %   

During the nine months ended September 30, 2009, gross profit was $5.28 million, a slightly increase of approximately 1.34% from the same period of 2008. Gross profit from connection fees is $4.82 million for the nine months of 2009, accounting for 91% of total gross profit. In comparison, gross profit from connection fees was $4.33 million for the nine months of 2008, accounting for 83% of total gross profit. Gross profit from gas sales was $0.46 million, accounting for 9% of total gross profit, compared to $0.89 million, 17% of total gross profit in the same period of 2008.

Sino Gas International Holdings (OTC: SGAS) - A compelling value 
Sep 17, 2009 09:35 AM | about stocks: SGAS.OB
The market is flush with companies whose shares have dramatically increased in price during recent months. While in many cases these increases were justified by unreasonably low valuations, outstanding bargains still remain. I would like to introduce a small Chinese company which should appeal to value-focused, long-term investors with a bullish outlook on China. 
 
Sino Gas (SGAS.OB) is a natural gas service provider whose activities include installation and operation of natural gas systems to residential and industrial customers in eastern China. As of June 30th 2009, Sino Gas owned and operated 37 natural gas systems serving about 100,900 residential customers and five commercial customers. The distribution systems are located in small-to-medium sized cities with populations of between 100,000 and 300,000. Prior to Sino Gas presence, these smaller cities had no access to natural gas and their residents relied on burning coal for heat. With China pursuing reduced coal use to minimize pollution, local governments offer enticing incentives for private companies to provide natural gas. In each of their locations, Sino Gas was granted a minimum of 25 years of exclusive rights to supply gas service. 
               
 
Figure 1. Locations of Sino Gas distribution systems as of 12/31/2008 (SGAS 10-K)
 
 
The company generates sales through fees for installing new residential connections (usually $300 - $400 per connection at over 60% gross margin), and through sales of natural gas (typical prices are $0.30 - $0.40 per cubic meter at about 9% gross margin). Natural gas is supplied to Sino Gas by state-owned oil majors such as SinoPec and PetroChina. While Sino Gas controls the price it charges its customers, the state determines the price of natural gas – a benefit for Sino Gas, since China’s heavy emphasis on reduced pollution should help keep supply prices low for years to come.. 
 
In the short-term, a natural result of the company’s profitable connections business is sensitivity to Chinese real estate trends. When conditions are favorable for rapid development of apartments and single-family homes, Sino Gas reaps outstanding benefits as it did in 2007. Similarly, real estate development slowdowns cause sharp drops in Sino Gas profit. Perhaps the worst such case in our lifetime occurred during 2008, when Beijing construction activity was stopped for the summer Olympics just as a financial crisis rippled around the world.    
 In the long term, despite the tough year in 2008, Sino Gas is well positioned to become a  thriving cash cow, offering exclusive provision of a critical clean energy supply in a nation abounding in gas reserves. As one would expect, customers continued purchasing through the winter’s financial crisis, as the company cruised to a 67% increase in annual gas sales vs. 2007. Gas sales continued increasing at a 23% clip as of Q2 2009. With only about 10% residential penetration in its operating areas, Sino Gas revenues are expected to grow for years to come. Growing gas sales should come not only from new customers, but also growing same-customer sales year over year as the Chinese increasingly use natural gas for heating, cooking, and even drying clothes. Average consumption increased from 187 to 344 cubic meters between 2006 and 2008. Estimating 500 cubic meters of annual consumption at $0.50 per cubic meter, with 500,000 households by the year 2020 (about a 50% market penetration), Sino Gas sales would be $125 million annually. The company’s market capitalization stands at $11.4 million today.
 
Sino Gas is solidly profitable, and has no long term debt. Shareholder equity is $58.6M, giving it a price-to-book ratio of 0.2, with net tangible assets consisting largely of distribution system equipment, accounts receivables, and minority interests.    Its P/E ratio on estimated current year earnings of $3M is about 4 (P/E = 7 using 2008 earnings), and operating cash flow has been firmly positive year after year, surpassing $4M in 2008 despite the crisis. Why then, one may ask, is the relative valuation so low? 
 
Heavy capital expenditures prior to market crash. Sino Gas made approximately $54 million in capital investments during 2006-2008 associated with pipeline construction and acquisition of smaller gas distributors. These investments were funded largely by over $30 million in equity offerings in 2006 and 2007 at average pricing of about $2.50 per share, as well as cash from operations and some loans.   In 2008, total net income was $1.6 million on a $70 million asset base, representing a return on investment much lower than typical costs of capital. Since pipelines are depreciated using a constant rate, depreciation cost as a percent to sales is likely to remain high per new connection and per cubic meter during the coming 2-4 years as the customer base grows in each city. Consequently, although the company enjoys guaranteed revenue, Sino Gas will find it difficult to finance expansion into new cities until net earnings are increased without new loans or equity issues – unless they find a liberal loan officer! It is worth noting, however, that as recently as September 2009 the CFO reiterated the company’s ambitions to expand into 60 cities in coming years (FoxBusiness.com interview)
 
A series of unpleasant surprises and temporary loss of investor confidence. Regardless of cause, the period from mid-2007 through all of 2008 was a frustrating time for Sino Gas shareholders. The Company had repeated financing gaffes, including missed make good targets causing shareholder dilution, a failed acquisition attempt in a fairly large city (Baoding) during which time nearly $2 million of cash was tied up as a deposit, a CFO replacement, and fines due to failed registration of privately placed shares for sale. On top of the disappointing earnings, all this proved too much for shareholders as the market collapsed.  As recently as March, shares traded hands at a stunning price of $0.06, valuing Sino Gas at $1.5 million.
 
***
 
Sino Gas offers enduring shareholder value. Hopefully it is clear from the above that while the decrease in share price since 2007 has been catalyzed by events that justify concern, the underlying enterprise value of Sino Gas remains quite intact. A web search of cities where Sino Gas operates (i.e., Qujing, Nandong, Zhangjiakou and etc.), will give a quick intuitive sense of the scale of operations in the company’s future. Urbanization and increased Chinese residential use of natural gas are firmly entrenched economic trends, and Sino Gas has already deployed the capital to service millions of residents for years to come without further financing. Below, using a discount rate of 20%, I calculate the net present value of Sino Gas at $91.8 million, or about $3.06 per share. This is well above the requirements for listing on a major stock exchange, where valuations are frequently higher.
 
The valuation model assumes 37,000 customers added per year between 2010 and 2020, with a flat rate of $350 per connection. The annual gas use per customer is projected to trend upwards at 3% per year from 358m3 to 500m3, reflecting increased domestic use as Chinese consumers become more accustomed to natural gas. Per unit gas prices also trend upwards at 2% per year, although the benefit of this price increase would likely be offset somewhat by higher gas prices from state-owned enterprises.    Gross margin from gas sales doubles from 8% to 16% as depreciation costs decrease as a percent to sales. Gross margin from connections is held flat at a lower-than-average 60%, partly as a buffer against overestimating profit from connection fees due to inevitable volatility in real estate markets. 
 
Sales, general and administration expenses are modeled with gradual increases at a rate lower than sales growth, reflecting significant opportunity to leverage sales growth to bottom-line earnings as Sino Gas grows its customer base in existing territories. There should be minimal incremental expense in maintaining customers with gas connections, and low-cost recurring business with real estate developers paying gas connection fees as they construct apartments in each city. As natural gas penetration plateaus in the coming years, operating expenses could even decrease with no need to manage a large connections business. Nevertheless, the model conservatively includes sales and operating expense increases from about $5M in 2009 to over $10M in 2020. Note:Taxes are included in general expenses for simplicity.
 
Based on these projections, earnings are estimated in the tables below, with annual earnings after 2020 being flat at about $15.3M. 
  
Sales and profit values in millions
Sino Gas Distribution Business Model      
Year Gas customers Gas consumption (m3) Gas price Gas sales Gas sales gross margin Gas Sales Gross profit
2006 63000 187 $0.31 $3.65 22.19% $0.81
2007 87500 371 $0.28 $9.14 12.60% $1.15
2008 100900 344 $0.35 $12.20 8.85% $1.08
2009 120000 358 $0.35 $15.21 8.33% $1.27
2010 150000 368 $0.40 $22.09 8.00% $1.77
2011 190000 379 $0.41 $29.40 7.00% $2.06
2012 230000 391 $0.42 $37.39 8.00% $2.99
2013 270000 402 $0.42 $46.12 9.00% $4.15
2014 310000 414 $0.43 $55.63 10.00% $5.56
2015 350000 427 $0.44 $65.98 11.00% $7.26
2016 390000 440 $0.45 $77.24 12.00% $9.27
2017 430000 453 $0.46 $89.48 13.00% $11.63
2018 470000 466 $0.47 $102.75 14.00% $14.38
2019 510000 480 $0.48 $117.13 15.00% $17.57
2020 550000 500 $0.50 $137.50 16.00% $22.00
  
Sales and profit values in millions

Sino Gas Connections Business Model    
Year New Connections Price per new connection Connection sales Connections Gross margin percent Connection gross profit
2006 24500 $294 $7.20 78.53% $5.66
2007 39306 $330 $12.97 75.77% $9.83
2008 26770 $347 $9.29 68.71% $6.38
2009 36268 $350 $12.69 60.00% $7.62
2010 37000 $350 $12.95 60.00% $7.77
2011 37000 $350 $12.95 60.00% $7.77
2012 37000 $350 $12.95 60.00% $7.77
2013 37000 $350 $12.95 60.00% $7.77
2014 37000 $350 $12.95 60.00% $7.77
2015 37000 $350 $12.95 60.00% $7.77
2016 37000 $350 $12.95 60.00% $7.77
2017 37000 $350 $12.95 60.00% $7.77
2018 37000 $350 $12.95 60.00% $7.77
2019 37000 $350 $12.95 60.00% $7.77
2020 37000 $350 $12.95 60.00% $7.77

As mentioned above, earnings are projected to be flat at $15.3M from 2021 onwards as connection business decreases are offset by growing gas sales and reduced administration costs. Net income is estimated by subtracting sales & admin expenses (which include taxes for simplicity) from total gross profit. For example, in 2013, estimated total gross profit is equal to $4.15 + $7.77, or about $11.92. Sales, admin, and tax expense is estimated at $6.50, yielding $11.92 – $6.50 = $5.42 in net income, having a discounted value of $5.42/[(1+0.2)^(2013 – 2009)] = $2.62
  
Sales and profit values in millions
Sino Gas Earnings Forecast        
Year Total sales Sales and Admin as a percent to sales Total gross profit Sales and admin expense Net income Discounted earnings using 20% rate
2006 $10.85 12.87% $6.47 $1.40 $5.07 N/A
2007 $22.11 14.83% $10.98 $3.28 $7.70 N/A
2008 $21.49 27.28% $7.46 $5.86 $1.60 N/A
2009 $27.90 17.00% $8.88 $4.74 $4.14 $4.14
2010 $35.04 15.25% $9.54 $5.34 $4.19 $3.49
2011 $42.35 13.00% $9.83 $5.51 $4.32 $3.00
2012 $50.34 12.00% $10.76 $6.04 $4.72 $2.73
2013 $59.07 11.00% $11.92 $6.50 $5.42 $2.62
2014 $68.58 10.00% $13.33 $6.86 $6.48 $2.60
2015 $78.93 10.00% $15.03 $7.89 $7.13 $2.39
2016 $90.19 9.50% $17.04 $8.57 $8.47 $2.36
2017 $102.43 9.00% $19.40 $9.22 $10.18 $2.37
2018 $115.70 8.50% $22.15 $9.83 $12.32 $2.39
2019 $130.08 7.75% $25.34 $10.08 $15.26 $2.46
2020 $150.45 7.00% $29.77 $10.53 $19.24 $2.59

Summing discounted earnings from 2009 through 2020 gives the following enterprise value for Sino Gas:

  Dollars in millions excluding price per share
Discounted earnings $33.15
book value $58.60
enterprise value $91.75
price per share (using 30M shares) $3.06
 
Rapidly increasing average trade volumesIf the above is insufficient motive to purchase shares, it is worth mentioning that the trading activity for Sino Gas stock has been quite favorable in recent weeks. Shares are at the middle-to-low end of the trading range in the last three months, with strong volumes and consistent buying occurring in the $0.40 - $0.45 price range. Investors buying at this price point would appear to have minimal downside and tremendous upside potential. See charts below.
 

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