Savvy Trades and Investments

[Knowledge is King]

So you're willing to hold an "expert market" stock? I haven't yet run across a way to trade them...

[hweb2]

Yep I said it looked like DXYN was being delisted tomorrow. Stock falling into the close like I thought. Looks like I'll be adding in the .40's very soon.

[wadegarret]

KIK- IART, do you see darkness around the corner ?

PE is now 1/4 normal, for fears the company won't be able to turn things around. The CFO has two Podcast interviews in early Sept, where she seems to have a good handle on turning the company around by late 2025. In addition, she says the company is so sure they will get quality control issues back on track, that they are opening up a new factory in MA to re make the two high margin tissue devices that were recalled at the Boston Factory, to be out by early 2026. In the meantime, the company gave eps guidance of $2.47 avg for 2024, and said a slight improvement is expected in 2025.. Stock has been decimated down to a 6 PE going forward, despite having a 25 PE going forward in 2021, before the Boston Factory products recall, and quality conrol issues.

[Knowledge is King]

Good luck with DXYN, but it sounds like darkness (expert market) may be around the corner...

This is from the 8-k:


Item 3.01 Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing.


As previously disclosed on March 26, 2024, The Dixie Group, Inc. (the “Company”) received an extension of 180 days to regain compliance with the Nasdaq’s minimum $1.00 bid price requirement set forth in Rule 5550(a)(2) for continued listing on the Nasdaq Capital Market (the “bid price requirement”).
On September 24, 2024, the Company received a letter from Nasdaq notifying the Company that the Company had not regained compliance with the bid price requirement by the required compliance date and, as a result, the Company’s common stock is subject to delisting.

The Company has until October 1, 2024 to appeal this determination. If the Company elects to appeal Nasdaq's determination, the delisting of the Company's common stock will be automatically stayed pending the decision of the Nasdaq listing qualifications hearing panel. If the Company decides not to appeal Nasdaq’s determination, trading of the Company’s common stock will be suspended at the opening of business on October 3, 2024, and a Form 25-NSE will be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission which will remove the Company's securities from listing and registration on The Nasdaq Stock Market.

[hweb2]

Anyone still follow DXYN? Stock getting whacked today as it appears they're getting delisted tomorrow. I'm going on this filing from last Thursday (not sure why wait to sell today in the .50's instead of the .70's late last week)-

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/29332/000002933224000053/dxyn-20240924.htm

Guess the company didn't file an appeal. I don't see anything for sure, but sellers seem to know they'll be delisted. Might be an opportunity as those sellers puke out their shares before the close.

DXYN would save money on the pinks (AATC comes to mind). And I thought the company had a nice Q2 turnaround-

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dixie-group-reports-result-second-123000373.html

If the Fed keeps cutting rates and the home remodel market rebounds, DXYN could be a multi-bagger from here. I snagged a few for a gamble (already underwater ha) and will be accumulating.

[hweb2]

Yep sounds bullish on ELTK. Also like this from the CEO on the Q2 call. Increasing their workforce daily sounds pretty good!

"Regarding manpower, we are navigating the challenging market with the strong demand for employees. In response to this demand and our forecast for the increased order flow, we have adjusted our recruitment policy, primarily by increasing direct labor salaries. This action has already had positive effect, and we are now increasing our workforce daily. Our plan is to add about 50 new employees in the coming months and to extend our manufacturing capacity to include an extended sales shift. We expect these measures to help us to meet delivery schedule, accelerate delivery dates and increase revenue."

Only bummer is they'll have a tough Q3 comp. Still, I think the stock moves higher if they post Q3 earnings around .30/share with nearly $3/share in cash & investments on the balance sheet.

[larrybaz]

ELTK - I joined you. The commentary from the last earnings PR sounds promising:

"Eltek has demonstrated consistent growth over the past several quarters, driven by our commitment to innovation and customer satisfaction. However, this quarter, we experienced a decrease in revenues and profits compared to the previous quarter and the corresponding quarter last year. This decline is attributed to a significant timing shift by some key customers, who prioritized orders for PCBs with medium technology requirements, resulting in lower prices and margins. Orders for more complex, higher-margin PCBs were pushed back and are scheduled to be produced in the third quarter. While this has impacted our short-term financial performance, we remain confident in our long-term strategy and market position," said Eli Yaffe, CEO of Eltek.

"We expect to return in in the third quarter to the profitability parameters of previous quarters, as product mix strategies are realigned. Our backlog as of today increased by 30% since the beginning of 2024. This increase will support our planned growth in revenues and profitability. We remain committed to delivering value to our shareholders and are taking the necessary steps to ensure that we continue our growth trend. Our team is focused on optimizing our product offerings and operational efficiencies to drive profitability and sustain our market leadership," concluded Mr. Yaffe.

[researcher59]

INMD (15.54) is another Israeli based company whose stock has gotten hit the past few days on concerns over the escalating conflict in the middle east. I think it's a good speculative buy at this price level, which is near a 4 year low.

[hweb2]

Yeah heck of a run on IPW! Still not sure why. Can't imagine anyone would buy on this fluffy PR yest-

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ipower-launches-supersuite-supplier-portal-123000692.html

[Knowledge is King]

IPW printing $2.24! The board (including me) left a lot of money on the table with this one!

[hweb2]

ELTK another one dropping on no news I can find. Rising tensions in the Middle East could be good for their defense business. ELTK had a disappointing Q2, because orders were delayed into Q3. Backlog was up 30% this year and they announced another $3.5M order since the Q2 report. Should have a strong quarter coming up. I'm a buyer below $10

[hweb2]

See any news on SIF? Stock dropping back today. I'm rebuying a few shares.

[EnchantedTitan62]

The ceo of NVDA will be on CNBC today at 4pm EDT. I've traded it a number of times 💰, and hold a long position. May all your trades be profitable .

[mankind]

That's a peach! very nice

[novicetrader]

OKLO too part of the nuclear pack, up 15% today.Been table pounding that one for a while!

[wadegarret]

IART- Can manipulation send it into bankruptcy ?

I mean it seems to me, there are short sellers out there that would like to see this stock go to zero. So what if the stock is short sold down to the single digits. Could that cause loan covenants to trigger that could cause the company to go bankrupt ?

[nelson1234]

thanks SSk.

[mankind]

COMM $6.27 - Just entered this one. Based in NC "CommScope Holding Company, Inc. provides infrastructure solutions for communications, data center, and entertainment networks worldwide." last qt did $0.13, a shame of a scenario due to Helene, however an easy comp coming up.

[mankind]

UEC - bought that yesterday $6.44. Nuclear was heating up. NNE looks ready to blow to the upside, SMR did yesterday. Like wolves, they travel in packs

[rrat02]

Bank analyst Mike Mayo continues to "pound the table" on C. Selling well below tangible book value and over the next 3 years he sees earnings possibly doubling. Even if the stock gradually moves up to where it sells at 1X tangible BV it will be a nice return plus a 3+% dividend that is highly likely to increase each year. I've made it my 3rd largest position behind BRK.B and KMI.

[mankind]

AG - silver, looks ready to run as well, took a starter $6.36 call it a hedge in a clown world

[mankind]

GCT - took a starter in this via calls, one of a few that had triple digit rev growth last qtr. Didn't dig deep on sustainability, as I cannot know that, but momentum tells me somethings brewing.

[stevhoff]

Opposite George from Seinfeld. Time to take that approach with your trading. Honestly I did that once when having a bad year and it worked.

[larrybaz]

EMKR - The analyst's rationale:

Craig-Hallum upgrades Emcore to Buy, raises price target to $3

TheFlyontheWall.com - Oct 02 08:21 EDT

As previously reported, Craig-Hallum analyst Richard Shannon upgraded Emcore (EMKR) to Buy from Hold with a price target of $3, up from $1. The firm notes that Mobix Lab's (MOBX) all-cash offer to buy Emcore earlier this week creates a wide range of outcomes for the stock over various time periods that investors may be contemplating, likely resulting in a stock price much different than what the stock trades at today. Craig-Hallum thinks that the Emcore Board of Directors may find it difficult to turn down an offer that was 200% above the prior day's close, and one that provides another 55% upside from yesterday's close, when the alternative is much riskier, will take longer to play out, and would have a negative impact on the short-term stock price. The firm leans towards Emcore accepting an offer, whether it's Mobix Lab's current one or an improved one.

I'm still skeptical.

[larrybaz]

EMKR - FWIW:

Craig-Hallum gets more bullish on Emcore, upgrades shares

TheFlyontheWall.com - Oct 02 07:15 EDT

Craig-Hallum upgraded Emcore to Buy from Hold with a $3 price target.

[mankind]

IART
"The report highlights the company’s 2023 ESG performance and ongoing efforts against the ESG strategy and roadmap established three years ago." The stock was in the $70's. It seems that management basically gave the middle finger to it's shareholders.

https://investor.integralife.com/news-releases/news-release-details/integra-lifesciences-continues-make-progress-its-esg-strategy

[wadegarret]

Analyst downgrades on almost every stock I owned

It's amazing. Here are the last few stocks I've owned. DAN, HALO, GERN, KINS, & IART. Now three of these stocks have gotten downgrades in the last week. That's 60% of the stocks I owned got downgraded ? Unreal ! Personally every downgrade is bogus IMO, but what's the chance !

Hey, and I also thought every stock was super cheap, and ready to rally huge- sheesh !

[wadegarret]

R59- IART downgrade is bogus IMO

What about valuation ? I mean is valuation thrown out the window because the company has had quality control issues ? This whole thing with IART has gotten insane ! This Citi analyst downgrade, after the stock has been decimated down 60% in six months, to a 6 PE going forward is ridiculous and reeks of a bogus downgrade, likely to allow more institutional buying on the cheap. I mean he gives the main lame reason, is that the Sept qtr is usually a weak one. Well how about IART has already lowered guidance substantially for Q3 already ! If the stock goes to $16 or less tomorrow, I will double down ! In Wadegarret, I will sell my other position, and spend every dollar on IART.

[SSKILLZ1]

SSKMP Managed Index (As Of 10/1/24)

Daily Performance
-0.46%

YTD Performance
+7.90%

Overall Performance
+506.64% (Including Options Trading +370.62%)

[novicetrader]

OKLO...Another nuclear plant resurrected(after the Three mile island one). Nuclear energy seems to be the next big thing.Probably reason why the small modular reactor companies(OKLO, SMR & NNE)were all nicely green on a red market day. Been pounding the table on OKLO for a while now, but like all 3 of them.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-closes-152-billion-loan-resurrect-michigan-nuclear-plant-2024-09-30/

[nelson1234]

IART thx for the CITI info re their reasons for lowering PT..

[researcher59]

IART -.67 to 17.50 after analyst lowers price target -

fly -

Integra LifeSciences price target lowered to $16 from $20 at Citi

Citi lowered the firm's price target on Integra LifeSciences to $16 from $20 and keeps a Sell rating on the shares. The firm wonders if the recent rally in medical technology shares can hold heading into the Q3 reports. Citi enters earnings season "cautious," saying Q3 is historically the toughest quarter in MedTech as it brings scrutiny over the 2025 setup and commentary on next year's numbers "could be a governor of price action in the near-term." The firm maintains its top picks on Boston Scientific (BSX), GE HealthCare (GEHC) and Insulet (PODD).

[nelson1234]

IART I own a small position. But just for info, Citigroup today maintained their Sell rating and lowered their price target to $16. BTG also has a Sell rating with a $20 target (reiterated on 8/28/24). JMP has not changed their Outperform and $35 target, along with Truist with their Hold and $26 target, both reiterated on 7/30/24. I'd like to see the Citi report just to understand the Bear case better.

best.

[wadegarret]

HALO downgraded to $57 for valuation concerns ?

Really ? OK, so analysts expect the company to grow eps by 20%+/year for the next 5 years, and it's downgrade when the PE gets to 14 going forward ? I don't get that, but either way, at $56 today, the company is selling for an 11 PE going forward, with 20% eps growth expected in 2025. Here is the downgrade from last week...
https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/halozyme-downgraded-to-neutral-from-overweight-at-jpmorgan

[wadegarret]

IART- I may double my position at $17

This is one of the best chances at a 3-4 bagger than anything I've seen in years. Has anyone looked at the one year chart ? This stock was $45 only a six months ago ! It was $75 back in 2021. I have never seen a company get slaughtered this bad, unless earnings were to be almost wiped out for years, or bankruptcy is around the corner. At the height of their success in 2021, eps was $3, and has now come down to $2.47 being guided for 2024, with 2025 being guided slightly better, with 2026 likely to $3.50 or higher. Yet the stock has been decimated as if eps was down 80%, not the 17% drop it's actually seen. So why has the stock been hit this bad ?

Investors feel that the quality control issues, which caused their Boston Factory to close 2 years ago, and the persistent negative quarterly results over one issue or another, must mean that something ominous is lurking. They don't trust the company, and feel that eps will keep getting revised down until the company either goes bankrupt from not being able to resolve the quality control issues, or becomes a company in trouble for years to come. However the CFO just spoke for the company in two September Webcasts, saying that the quality control revamp was going smoothly thus far, and still on track to be fully resolved within a year or so in 2025. She said there are no balance sheet concerns, and that revenues and earnings in 2025 should be slightly better than in 2024, with 2026 hopefully a full turnaround, with the 2 tissue devices that were made at the Boston Factory to be made at another location in MA, and to be on the market in early 2026.

With all this, the stock is at mutli year lows, and down 80% from 3 years ago. As I said, this is basically from investors perpetually selling in fear that the company won't overcome the quality control issues for many years, and very possibly go bankrupt in the process. I firmly disagree with that view, and feel the CFO has a very good handle on the problems and what it will take to resolve them by mid to late 2025. I believe IART is a rare chance for a triple or more from the present $17 by mid 2025.

[bbotcs]

RNsidersbuying: FTCO
The dividend yield is very good. There isn't anything out there that would cause the price of gold to go down.

[RNsidersbuying]

FTCO 5.11 - took a position in this fundamentally sound gold stock. If anything is certain, Israel will retaliate with more vigor and precision.

Gold to $2800...$3000...?

[worthylion]

TTEC I'm hanging in there because the CEO owns a majority of the company and presumably therefore controls the Board. Next step will be to form a committee of "independent" (non executive) Board members to hire an investment bank for a fairness opinion. Wouldn't surprise me to see that result in a modest increase over $6.75 ($7?) purely to help "legitimize" the final share price in the event of SH litigation. 

[cliffvb]

Looked at BRY myself as that dividend is very attractive. Their revolver matures within a year. No big deal as they only have a 22 million balance on it now. However, they also have a $400 million debt that matures in February 2026 at 7%.. I would think that refinancing that debt might be required before that revolver is renewed. That would likely be at a higher interest rate too. BRY has been paying 17c/qrtr in dividends. However 12c of that is a regular dividend and 5c is a special dividend. I think the regular dividend is probably safe as long as oil prices stay steady but I could see them dropping the special dividend to conserve cash flow.

That 90% institutional ownership can be a two edged sword. I can see funds selling this so it doesn't show up in their year end holdings. Some funds are also prohibited from owning stocks under $5/ share. The stock is very close to that now.

I'm putting this one on my watch list as I think it is undervalued, but will hold off for now.

[wadegarret]

IART- Amazing no one here is taking a shot

Here is a mid cap company down 80% from highs, while only a 6 PE going forward vs 25+ PE gf for the sector ! Either they make a comeback, or they go broke. Obviously many investors think they won't make it, but I'm heavily bet against that view. The CFO is a genius, and she said in two separate Webcasts, that things as of Sept were on track for Q3, that the quality control plan to revamp was on track, and that there are no balance sheet concerns. Amazing to me that investors are so sure IART won't make it. If the CFO is right, IART could go up 200%-400% from here by end of 2025. The way I see it is, you either lose everything or make 300%

[EnchantedTitan62]

Gold is $2,690. I enjoy the fact that my precious metals are up, but WAR makes it much less enjoyable.

[bbotcs]

Massive missle attack on Israel underway. According to the Daily Mail, a dramatic source, the Iron Dome is overwhelmed.
Given the situation there, in Ukraine, the longshoremen's strike, the Helene devastation, why hasn't the DOW dropped 1K points. Very weird.

[larrybaz]

MOBX - They did buy a couple companies this year. The details were undisclosed for one, but they paid $2M in cash and $10M in stock for the other one.

Why anyone would want to buy EMKR is beyond me. Yes, it is selling below tangible book value, but their income statement looks like a scene from a slasher movie. At the pace they are going, that discount to tangible book will be disappearing quickly.

The MOBX income statement doesn't look any better. Plus they have negative tangible equity.

In regard to the dirty, rotten, stinking, festering liquidity issue, I came upon this:

https://investors.mobixlabs.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mobix-labs-secures-100-million-committed-equity-facility

In the most recent 10-Q, though, this statement seems to signify that the equity facility is on ice for a year after the referenced private placement:

Committed Equity Facility

On March 18, 2024, the Company entered into a Purchase Agreement (“Purchase Agreement”) and a related Registration Rights Agreement with B. Riley Principal Capital II (“B. Riley”) which provides the Company the right, in its sole discretion, and subject to the satisfaction of the conditions set forth therein, to sell to B. Riley up to 9,500,000 newly issued shares of its Class A Common Stock (subject to certain limitations) from time to time. Any sales of Class A Common Stock pursuant to the Purchase Agreement, and the timing of any sales, are solely at the Company’s option, and the Company is under no obligation to sell any securities to B. Riley. The per share purchase price that B. Riley will pay for shares of Class A Common Stock will be determined by reference to the volume weighted average price of the Class A Common Stock measured over the regular trading session or intraday period of the trading session on Nasdaq on the date of each purchase, in each case as defined in the Purchase Agreement, less a three percent discount. However, in July 2024 the Company entered into an unrelated private placement transaction, the terms of which prohibit the Company from selling shares of its Class A Common Stock in variable rate transactions, which includes sales pursuant to the Purchase Agreement, until the one year anniversary of the date the registration statement relating to the private placement is effective. See Note 21 – Subsequent Events.

This is a really strange deal here. It smells to me, but who knows.

[SSKILLZ1]

Nelson1234, Right now with the run it is hard for me to like much with this market that is why I have so much cash. As for Banks in general if the sector comes in I would buy a few, but like most things that would require it to come in. Not saying I can't find a stock or two I will buy at the right price, but for me to drastically change my position this market is gonna need to pullback. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.

[SSKILLZ1]

OT I was add in the fact there was a transformer exploding on my block making a loud sound, which scared the blank out of me in the bottom of the 9th and I lost power for 5 hours, but thankfully thanks to my battery/surge protecters have 15-20 minutes to shut my devices off, so was able to see the end of the mets game thankfully. But have to say was the best and most stressful mets game I have ever watched in the regular season and it isn't even close. The explosion of the transformer in the bottom of the 9th also added to it as well. All is just my opinion of course.

[SSKILLZ1]

It is truely amazing even when I get the market going down something like this makes one of my sells look stupid. Truth be told so far I have been wrongly negative on the braoder market, and so much for short-term resistance on DIN. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.

[gilead23]

TTEC nice alert thanks!

bought some shares at 5.74 and 5.28 out now around 6

[nelson1234]

MOBX in the 'we don't need no stinking liquidity' department, they sure aren't acting like they are under any financial duress (or maybe they know they have access to financing) b/c I believe they recently bought two other very small companies.

[stevhoff]

TTEC- well that was quicker than I thought. Out at 6.20. Oil up on indication Iran about to launch ballistic missiles against Israel.

[larrybaz]

MOBX - This statement from their last 10-Q doesn't exactly inspire confidence that they can make this deal happen without some extraordinary help:

Management believes that there is substantial doubt concerning the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern as the Company currently does not have adequate liquidity to meet its operating needs and satisfy its obligations beyond the next approximately ninety days.