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Dow Jones Transport Index is down over 23%
since late November, 2024...
down almost 15% in 2025 So Far...
So there may have been some pre tariff
selling in the average before tariffs started...
But that doesn't mean that they will rebound
magically from recent lows...
And the average going down almost 2% on
Friday doesn't confirm any other positive
average numbers for the day...
With down turn just starting in transports,
which spreads to energy sector next,
and then to other sectors...
Russell 2000 down most of day on Friday
may be a sign that retail was taking the
profits of the week off the table too...
Market playing catch up to down trends
shows it isn't forward looking by any means...
A week of peace and harmony may start
ebbing late on Saturday...
DOW and NDX numbers are very high so
have plenty of room to drop from...
Hate to close without something positive...
so we watch...LJ
YTD Index Returns -
TKR % Change Cur Price Start Price
$RUMIC -15% 694.08 820.06
$DJT -15% 13497.05 15895.75
$SML -13% 1219.01 1408.17
$RUT -12% 1957.62 2230.16
$COMP -9% 17382.94 19310.79
$MID -9% 2831.67 3120.94
$RLG -9% 3674.66 4042.28
$NDX -7% 19432.56 21012.17
$SPX -6% 5525.21 5881.63
$NYFANG -6% 12329.06 13120.21
$DJI -5% 40113.5 42544.22
$SPXEW -4% 6787.57 7100.83
$RLV -2% 1775.73 1823.95
$W5KMICRO2% 15777.66 15415.18
$DJU 3% 1021.27 982.74
AVERAGE RETURN = -7%
Wadegarret portfolio- down 68% YTD, down 15% since 2022
Wadegarret portfolio has had been massacred in 2025, with 90% of picks being losers, and many were large % losers.
'over 700,000 loads have evaporated'. truck loads
dropping that hard on a week to week
basis seemed like way too many...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/22/busiest-us-ports-see-big-drop-in-chinese-freight-vessel-traffic.html
So, had to look at the massive amount of
trucks running roads every day...
Eureka, then remembered when the tropical
storm flooded southern Cal and region,
and remembered videos of I-10 traffic during
that flooding that still had bumper to bumper
box truck traffic still running with bad weather...
So, it has me leaning toward believing the massive
truck traffic drop numbers in the article...
But wondering how much economic dollars are
lost each week with 700,000 less trucks hauling?...
so we watch...LJ
AMMX I also calculated breakeven Gross Profit for the quarter on $5.9M in revenue.
AMMX Kik, anything positive you see in the earnings report going forward, ... at a glance looks like breakeven for the quarter before taxes unless I calculated incorrectly.
Bought a few MUEL($251.35) for a trade. Q1 earnings should be out after the close today. The company added $120M (!) to backlog in March, according to this blurb from the annual report....
The Company remains in a strong position as 2025 begins. The manufacturing backlog on December 31, 2024, was $153.7 million,
down from the June 30, 2024, backlog of $187.3 million. This is still a record backlog for the start of a year. Strong order entry has
continued into the first quarter of 2025. This month, we received approximately $120 million of pharmaceutical market orders,
part of which we will execute in the new Springfield building. The current backlog, combined with investments in equipment and
talent, puts the Company in a strong operational and financial position.
PPIH - thanks for heads up, was able to take advantage of the premarket bid. Still holding some
KINS- Maybe it can give back all recent gains
and go back to the $16s
KINS slooooowly moving up ?
Talk about cheap, and in a good sector. We just heard news, KINS is taking over even more business in NY. This is not including analysts upped eps estimates of $2.50 for 2026. I can't see why this one seems stuck at about a 7 PE going forward. I mean with all the growth, all the great news, the stock is selling at an historic low PE going forward. Also lately, the stock seems to give back any small gains quite a lot ? I mean it does seem the stock is creeping up, but very very slowly, but should it drop back to the $16s, all bets are off IMO. In the meantime, the sector sells for a 10-12 PE going forward for the larger peers, and with less growth.
FEIM no I'm out other than 100 shares I neglected. Like the company, but its not dirt cheap anymore. I also consider the market basically uninvestable until this tariff stuff gets resolved. I'm overwhelmingly sitting in 4.3% short term treasuries.
As an aside one of the obvious effects of tariffs is a shrinking of the trade deficit. The obvious effect of that is money leaving US markets as a shrinking current account deficit coincides with capital accounts shrinking
In other words lower PE's, and on a CAPE PE basis valuations are still extended.
I got chatgpt to do some modeling help for me, and the correlation coefficient between trade deficits and PE's is about 25% meaning statistically about a fourth of our PE value is driven by our trade deficit.
My fear or maybe even expectation is that tariffs whack both earnings and multiples simultaneously.
The market doesn't agree with me here, but thats fine. Even if I'm wrong my lifestyle doesn't change a bit. If I'm right I clean up later. By far my best years ever were 2020 and 2009.
FEIM hit $19 today on solid volume... its been pretty strong in the face of the markets, you still in Gil? The last of mine just hit on a gtc sell. Oh well, as SSk would say, on to the next.. unfortunately probably a lot $hittier..
PPIH I sold some (500) pmkt into the $13.37 bid and the bid hasn't changed.... a 52% move off the $8.81 low like 17 days ago...
SPY gambler peak?...over 700,000 loads have evaporated...
On time supply chain is draining fast...
that is a projected trucking weekly drop...
“We are at a tipping point on the West Coast,” said Ken Adamo, chief of analytics at DAT Freight & Analytics. “Looking at how many truck loads are available versus trucks, we’ve seen a precipitous drop, over 700,000 loads have evaporated nationally in the past week compared to two weeks prior,” he said.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/22/busiest-us-ports-see-big-drop-in-chinese-freight-vessel-traffic.html
And related to China shipping mainly...
https://clearitusa.com/u-s-china-tariffs-explained-what-importers-need-to-know-in-2025/
Over 145% tariff rate is due at customs
to clear delivery release...
SSKMP Managed Index (As Of 4/24/25)
Daily Performance
+0.63%
YTD Performance
-6.34%
Overall Performance
+488.46% (Including Options Trading +352.44%)
$RMCO: Microfloat Rare Earth assets play...Looks terrific & just getting found.
Do not snooze on $RMCO
WU - I'd be less interested were it not for the hefty covered call premiums .... even if the stock went down 15% over the coming year, which I consider unlikely, I'd still have a nice profit when accounting for the dividends and call premiums.
SSKMP Trades
Sell 400 Shares of INBK
Sell 500 Shares of INBKZ
Sell 300 Shares of JACK
Note that this is a fictional portfolio and is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities
INBKZ
Sold my INBKZ today at a loss, the way I feel about this underlying company after that quarter, I have 0 interest in holding there debt as well. So added a little more cash to my account, with that sale. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
GLBXF Bmr, is there some news or reason that you know of related to the selloff?
WU
To be fair I see ton of prices target each day, and guess what they are all moving down or at least and overwhelming majority of them, because prices on most stocks I watched are toward at the very least the lower end of the ranges, if not recently made new 52 week lows. So the fact that the analyst lowered price targets that is generally more to do where the current stock prices environment than a real change of fundies in a lot of cases. Having said that this quarter was slightly less than I expected, but not a ton less, and before this quarter I would of said they would be in the upper 1/2 of guidance, now I say they will be in the lower 1/2. So my expectations have changed slightly but than again to be fair, what has happened in the last month or two with the turbulence is the world economies has slowed the economic backdrop a little so the change is to be expected I guess. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
WU +.04 to 10.15, rebounding nicely from the morning low of 9.61. I added shares this morning at $9.87 and wrote the Aug $10 covered calls at $0.56 for a cost basis of $9.31. The over 9% dividend yield coupled with hefty covered call premiums and very low 5.6 forward PE makes it attractive to me, despite the ongoing long term gradual business decline.
They met estimates and maintained guidance, albeit several analysts lowered price targets.
briefing -
Western Union reports EPS in-line, misses on revs; reaffirms FY25 EPS guidance, revs guidance (10.13 +0.13) :
Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.41 per share, excluding non-recurring items, in-line with the FactSet Consensus of $0.41; revenues fell 6.2% year/year to $983.6 mln vs the $994.65 mln FactSet Consensus.
Co reaffirms guidance for FY25, sees EPS of $1.75 to $1.85, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $1.78 FactSet Consensus; sees FY25 revs of $4.115 bln to $4.215 bln vs. $4.14 bln FactSet Consensus.
fly -
09:00 EDT WU
Western Union price target lowered to $10.50 from $11 at UBS
UBS analyst Timothy Chiodo lowered the firm's price target on Western Union to $10.50 from $11 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.
08:47 EDT WU
Western Union price target lowered to $11 from $12 at Susquehanna
Susquehanna analyst James Friedman lowered the firm's price target on Western Union to $11 from $12 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm noted the company's improved Branded Digital transactions growth rising 14% while total Consumer Money Transfer adjusted revenue ex-Iraq fell -2%. Key themes from the quarter include improvement in Europe and durable digital transaction growth, offset by weakness in North America which remains unpredictable due to geopolitical and macroeconomic factors.
08:46 EDT WU
Western Union price target lowered to $11 from $12 at BMO Capital
BMO Capital lowered the firm's price target on Western Union to $11 from $12 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares after its in-line Q1 results. The stock remains a show-me story, and BMO believes investors should wait for more evidence of durable revenue growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
08:00 EDT WU
Monness Crespi cuts Western Union to Sell with headwinds 'increasingly apparent'
As previously reported, Monness Crespi analyst Gus Gala downgraded Western Union to Sell from Neutral with a $7.50 price target. Revenue came in below consensus as weakness in the North America CMT segment, particularly around retail and, to a lesser extent, slower consumer services, dragged, the analyst tells investors. Looking to calendar year 2025, reiterated guidance that assumes continued growth in digital, stable retail, and double-digit consumer services growth is "going to be challenging" considering the firm's concerns around retention in the digital channel and the company's commentary around pricing plans and a playbook similar to EU for the retail fleet, the analyst tells investors.
07:32 EDT WU
Western Union downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Monness Crespi
Monness Crespi analyst Gus Gala downgraded Western Union to Sell from Neutral with a $7.50 price target.
06:35 EDT WU
Western Union price target lowered to $11 from $12 at Keefe Bruyette
Keefe Bruyette lowered the firm's price target on Western Union to $11 from $12 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares.
COLB
COLB reported earlier than I thought they would by a day, yesterday, primarily thanks to the acquisition.
They reported .67 on the earnings front, which was very solid. Asset quality remains solid. They pay a dividend well north of 6% so you get paid while you wait, which is a huge plus. To make a long story short the quarter was solid.
Now to the acquisition, They are trying to expand in the southern California market, this helps them do that. They were very small in this region as they said they had limited resources in the area, and although they were growing they were very little scale in the region, this will make them climb to a top 10 bank in southern California, hence something they expected to happen over 10 years happens immediately as soon as the deal happens. I like this deal from a strategic point of view it makes sense to me. I don't think with the synergies they expect over the next year or two they paid two much for the bank either, I think they got a decent price for it.
Furthermore it is suppose to be accretive to 2026 and 2027, if you look at the presentation the company should earn about $3.24 next year, and possibly around $3.44 in 2027. Banks this size typically get 12-15 multiples in the regional bank space. at a 12 multiple time $3.24, I could easily say this bank is worth mid to upper 30's in the next 12 months.
Conclusion: Just thought I would mention if anything I like COLB a little more today, thanks to the acquisition which I think is a good strategic fit, and I don't believe with the synergies they overpaid for it either. They pay a very good dividend, and the valuation is super reasonable and should have very good growth from this going forward in 2026 and 2027. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
WU
WU Reported last night, a little weaker than I expected. But they kept guidance my gut tells me they will be in the lower 1/2 of that guidance. it is true they had a day less in this quarter thank to leap year and where holidays fell it should help q2 a little more because Easter was later this year, and actually hurt the q1 comp. q1 was the last outrageous comp of the Iraq revs, they have a tough Iraq comp in q2 (about 34 million (Versus normalized rate of say 6-7 million)). second half I expect growth of eps to occur, as this Iraq headwind will be completely behind us after q2, but the real bad comp was q1 which had 65 million in revs. versus less than 7 million. WU should be able continue to buyback stock, pay a dividend north of 9% at a multiple of 5X, probably in my opinion deserves about a 8x multiple, which means I see FV in the $14-15 range. Hence I still like it. This quarter was slightly below my expectations I do admit that, but not by much like a .01-.02, and I expect the numbers to get stronger as the year goes on. Just thought I would update my feeling on WU after the quarter. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though
$ALMU: All American semiconductor play. Contracts with NASA. Largely unknown & highly illiquid....A truly GREAT play right now because the Russell gets rebalanced next Weds. and $ALMU will likely be placed in the Index.
That would cause massive move in this VERY tightly held stock.
Link:
Credit: ValueMan: StockTwits: 4/24/25
$ALMU Oh boy--if you really want some edge-of-your-seat exciting action, pay attention to the Russell rebalancing.
https://www.lseg.com/en/media-centre/press-releases/ftse-russell/2025/ftse-russell-announces-2025-us-indexes-reconstitution-schedule
Next Wednesday is the "rank day." As of this moment, the market cap of ALMU is on the hairy edge of inclusion into the index. If they make it in, there will be enormous demand for shares(a million? 2 million? ???) in a super illiquid stock. Every indexed fund or ETF would need to add it. That would be an epic squeeze.
Website:
https://www.aeluma.com/
INBK , I actually got some off in pmkt ... 302 shares, at $25.24 and another 200 at $24.95, and like 150 more at $24.36... and I sold another 450 on Tuesday. The problem is the rest of it.. I just thought it would be easier to sell around $24 then it was. So I sold a few more in the lower half of the $22's when I saw it collapsing, but I still have 40% or so left.... obviously should have been more aggressive at the open..... I had a sell in at $24.30 which didn't hit. best.
INBK
Well I did get some shares out in the 24's before the market opened today. But this was a sell at any price scenario that is the worst bank report I have seen in quite some time in my opinion. It was a puke at any price. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
INBK not a whole lotta opportunity to puke... well if you missed the open, maybe the $23.7 was an opp, and then some orders in the $22's and below.
SSKMP Managed Index (As Of 4/23/25)
Daily Performance
+1.04%
YTD Performance
-6.93%
Overall Performance
+485.58% (Including Options Trading +349.56%)
Bmrboy- Pristine is not the correct word
I actually didn't know the meaning meant fresh, clean, unspoiled, or like new. What I should say, is an "excellent" 21 year track record.
Bmrboy- Pristine is not the correct word
I actually didn't know the meaning meant fresh, clean, unspoiled, or like new. What I should say, is an "excellent" 21 year track record.
Pristine, lol...doesn't get any better, eh?
INBK
I was right the first time, will be puking out shares here as well. what a terrible quarter they beat last quarter provision with a even larger provision, even with a nice chargeoff no less the balance still went up about 25%, NPA continued to rise sequentially. I have 0 confidence now if bad loans are just getting started here now, and as I said asset health is the most important thing with banks. I was under the impression after last quarter they had a handle on it, I was wrong, as it got significantly worse in my opinion.
JACK
Puked out JACK AH around $24. Strike 1 eliminated dividend. Strike 2 q2 guidance was below where I thought, strike 3 closing up restaurants. strike 4 don't know if they plan on selling del taco, and how does that affect the numbers and what would they get for a segment that is not exactly hitting on all cylinders anyways. All and all a major disappointment tonight. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
SSKMP Trades
Sell 40 Shares of AMZN
Sell 350 Shares of GAP
Sell 900 Shares of OI
Sell 100 Shares of PYPL
Note that this is a fictional portfolio and is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities
GAP,OI,PYPL
I sold a few things this morning, just to take some profits.
GAP- Sold GAP At $20.72 this morning, after buying in at $18.49. Stock was getting near short-term resistance. Plan to buyback on weakness, as I still like GAP a ton, but was looking to take some profits in a few thing to raise cash, so when the market pulls back I have cash to buy things back or buy new things.
OI- Sold OI at $11.75 today after buying at $10.88 avg. Thought it was getting near short-term resistance , so decided to take some profits. Will once again look to buyback on weakness.
PYPL- Sold PYPL at $63.76 today after buying in the 59's. Had a profit will look to buyback on weakness.
Conclusion: I decided to sell some stock I had profits in basically because I thought on the charts they would hit short-term resistance and I simply wanted to raise a little more cash so on the next downturn there will be more cash to buy things back and new stock on my watchlist. On April 7th I was down to 2.85% cash in my real portfolio, Now it is up to about 28% cash. I wasn't planning on selling tremendously as my plan for years to come is be more invested in the market and in the long-run this will work out for me. Hence I plan on keeping lower cash levels, but need to get cash near 25-30% here so on the next selloff I can add shares to stock I like or new stocks I want to buy on my watch list. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though
2morrowsgains- I can only be thankful
for a pristine 21 year track record, even after the pummeling I've taken this year. Maybe with a miracle Wadegarret portfolio will comeback a bit.
Correction on Wadegarret portfolio
The portfolio lost 70% of its value since Jan 1, 2025 !
Wade, it's no wonder. Looking at your trades just this week would make anyone's head spin. Your trading is/has been so erratic. The trades and comments you clutter the board with seem to point to someone who is insecure and unsure with their trading techniques but will keep going until you hit the time that's on the broken clock. Just my opinion. Hope you're not trading like this in your real-life portfolio. Good luck though.
Wadegarret portfolio shorted 3 times recently
All 3 times, news came out within a day or two from my entry that cost me big. One cost me 15% of the portfolio, one cost me 40% of the portfolio, and one cost me 10% ! I can't believe I have one dollar left in Wadegarret portfolio after the pummeling of a lifetime that I've taken over the last 4 months or so ! Wadegarret portfolio has now lost 70%+ of it's value since early 2023.
Wow MIND up 34%. Congrats to those holding! I was tempted to grab some ahead of earnings when it dropped below $5 this month. As the stock had sold off hard since hitting $10+ earlier this year. But never bought any back. Dang
KINS I dunno, maybe low twenties sometime before the end of the year? I am concerned that its price to book is very high relative to peers, and I think they may do an offering as they grow their book. On the flip side, I do like this news from the other day, that a company in their region that is getting out of the non-commercial Prop and Casualty biz, is 'recommendeding' KINS as their choice to get new policies:
KINGSTON, NY / ACCESS Newswire / April 14, 2025 / Kingstone Companies, Inc. (Nasdaq:KINS) (the "Company" or "Kingstone"), a Northeast regional property and casualty insurance holding company, today announced that its subsidiary, Kingstone Insurance Company, has entered into an agreement to offer a replacement policy to selected Homeowners policyholders in Downstate New York as AmGUARD Insurance Company® ("AmGUARD") pivots focus away from admitted personal lines business. AmGUARD's withdrawal plan, which includes this transaction, is pending approval by the New York Department of Financial Services. This transaction encompasses approximately $70 million in written premium.
Meryl Golden, Chief Executive Officer of Kingstone, stated, "We are delighted to work with AmGUARD's exceptional distribution partners to further increase our footprint in Downstate New York by offering an alternative policy to selected Homeowners policyholders with effective dates starting in the third quarter of 2025. This transaction will be handled in a similar manner to the withdrawal of several other carriers last year, except that we will be streamlining the process by providing a quote for eligible policyholders to our producers. We are working closely with AmGUARD to ensure a smooth and seamless transition for brokers and policyholders, alike."
Adam Edelstein, Chief Executive Officer of AmGUARD, stated, "GUARD is rapidly becoming the leading small business insurer and laser-focused on our commercial insurance products. As a result, we have decided to cease writing admitted Homeowners business nationwide. To support our agents, brokers, and insureds, we are delighted to partner with Kingstone, a specialist in New York Homeowners insurance, in an effort to provide our Downstate New York policyholders with a replacement coverage option."
https://www.accessnewswire.com/newsroom/en/business-and-professional-services/kingstone-announces-renewal-rights-transaction-to-grow-homeowner-1014616
Can you go one day without humiliating yourself?
Literally the market always does the exact opposite of what you predict.
Nelson- KINS
What do you think the stock is worth ? The company is guiding for $1.95 avg fd for 2025, and analysts think $2.50 in 2026.
$SMTSF- Finally reached agreement on a takeover with Alpayana:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sierra-metals-alpayana-reach-agreement-111600329.html
Between this and $MIND, not a bad day at all.
Nice report from $MIND. I like this management team.
I am waiting till 40%+ market correction to
chase with new cash. I will admit I can't time it, and obviously since we're a market where one tweet can make markets around the world go up or down 5%-10% within days, one can't short with success either. I truly believe though, that at some point over the next 18 months, markets will tank
BRY...Decent update this morning, Stock price has dropped below $2.50 giving Berry a 5% divi yield...
Berry Corporation Provides Update on Strong Hedge and Liquidity Position Underpinning Stable Cash Flow Generation; Announces Upcoming Conference Participation
DALLAS, April 23, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Berry Corporation (bry) (NASDAQ: BRY) (“Berry” or the “Company”) today provided an update on its hedge and liquidity position, further bolstering the Company’s financial strength and visibility in the current commodity price environment. The Company raised the average hedged price in 2026 and 2027 by $6 per barrel on 2.3 MBbls/d. The Company’s oil volumes are 73% hedged for the remainder of 2025 and 63% hedged for 2026, based on the midpoint of Berry’s full year 2025 oil production guidance. Berry's latest hedge information is included in its current investor presentation available on the Company’s website at www.bry.com.
Fernando Araujo, Berry’s Chief Executive Officer, commented, “Our favorable hedge position reflects our proven strategy and Berry’s long-standing commitment to deliver sustainable cash flow through commodity price cycles. Our shallow decline rate, low capital intensity assets and strong hedge book provides for continued debt reduction and shareholder returns. Berry is well positioned to protect its balance sheet amidst recent market volatility.”
Hedging and Mark-to-Market (MTM) Update:
Converted 2.3 MBbls/d of collars and puts in 2026 and 2027 into swaps, raising the floor price by $6/Bbl on average
Balance of 2025 (April-December): 17.3 MBbls/d oil hedged at an average price of $74.69/Bbl Brent (73% of full year 2025 guidance)
2026-2027: 12.5 MBbls/d oil hedged at an average price of $69.45/Bbl Brent factoring in swaps and the floor prices of the collars
MTM (crude oil) as of 4/21/25: $105 million
Liquidity Update
Berry also provided an update on its strengthened liquidity position since year-end. As of March 31, 2025, the Company had $120 million of liquidity, consisting of $39 million of cash and cash equivalents, $49 million available for borrowings under its revolving credit facility and $32 million available for delayed draw borrowings under its term loan facility. As of April 22, 2025, the Company had a liquidity position of $119 million with $14 million of letters of credit and no borrowings outstanding under its credit facility.
Upcoming Conference Participation
Berry’s executives will be participating in several upcoming investor events. In addition to hosting 1x1 investor meetings, Fernando Araujo will be speaking at each of the following conferences:
ONE Houlihan Lokey Global Conference on May 13 in New York, NY
Hart Energy Super DUG Conference & Expo on May 15 in Fort Worth, TX
Louisiana Energy Conference on May 28 in New Orleans, LA
About Berry Corporation (BRY)
Berry is a publicly traded (NASDAQ: BRY) western United States independent upstream energy company with a focus on onshore, low geologic risk, long-lived oil and gas reserves. We operate in two business segments: (i) exploration and production (“E&P”) and (ii) well servicing and abandonment services. Our E&P assets are located in California and Utah, are characterized by high oil content and are predominantly located in rural areas with low population. Our California assets are in the San Joaquin Basin (100% oil), and our Utah assets are in the Uinta Basin (65% oil). We provide our well servicing and abandonment services to third party operators in California and our California E&P operations through C&J Well Services (CJWS). More information can be found at the Company’s website at www.bry.com.
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