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EMKR MOBX I think the big problem is the company that MOBX, the company that is making the offer, has a market cap of $33 million, with no cash and they lose a lot of money, with revenues of $2.1 mil last quarter (although growing at a fast pace). They do have some big shots on their board ... the Executive Chairman of the Board is the former CEO of Microsemi which was sold a while back under him for like $8 billion. But he is listed as a non-employee board member. And I think they have or had a relationship with B Riley. Anyway, overall, I think the market is saying it will be very difficult for them to raise the cash for this offer unless perhaps that Exec Chairman of the Board goes in on it.
I'd take it if I were EMKR if they can show they have the financing.. its a huge premium (EMKR was at $1.20 at the time of the offer).
EMKR acquirer has a sketchy balance sheet, and is bleeding cash.
The skepticism on this deal closing seems justified to me. Huge discount to the offer, but I looked yesterday and passed.
$3.80/share cash offer, still trading at $2.21 No conviction apparently?
Mobix Lab submits proposal to acquire Emcore for $3.80 per share in cash
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/emcore-corporation-confirms-receipt-unsolicited-110000773.html
DIN +4.31 to 35.54 after an upgrade by Wedbush along with a $47 price target -
fly -
Wedbush upgrades Dine Brands with sales challenges priced in -
Wedbush analyst Nick Setyan upgraded Dine Brands to Outperform from Neutral with a price target of $47, up from $34. The firm believes the company's current sales challenges are well understood and reflected in the stock's "depressed valuation." Share catalysts for multiple expansion over the next twelve months exist, as a $100M accelerated share repurchase plan is probable in the second half of fiscal 2025 after Dine's refinancing, which is greater than 20% of the current market capitalization, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Second, Wedbush expects both Applebee's and IHOP to "solve the proper value equation" heading into 2025. The firm also views Dine's 100% franchised model, which it says minimizes margin sensitivity to sales challenges and ensures a high degree of visibility into EBITDA and free cash flow generation, is underappreciated.
Brilliant thank you!
I don’t think that setting is available from the app but it is from the website.
Carry on with the argument with the guy yelling at clouds.
The "ignore replies" feature has long been available on IHUB. Go into account settings, then "my ignores', then set replies to "hidden".
Agreed. I just put wade back on ignore. It's too tempting sometimes to respond to his insanity. And yes it's a waste of board space. He's certainly never going to listen. Reminds me of that scene in the Terminator when Reese is warning Sarah how 'It can't be bargained with. It can't be reasoned with'.
New feature request from IHub
Can we please have the ability to not only put Wade on ignore, but also responses to Wade on ignore?
Neither his commentary nor the responses to it add anything to the board. At some point after the 7000th attempt you have to stop trying to reason with the guy screaming at clouds.
Wade - since Jan '22 you're up 167%. That's terrific, except that you've almost totally in cash since then ..... obviously a HUGE mistake. Have you ever done the calculation year by year to figure out how much higher your net worth would be if you hadn't migrated into cash starting 8 years ago ? Sounds like your net worth would be at least 300% higher than it is and you wouldn't have to be scraping by on treasury bond interest on 93% of your portfolio.
Do you like any banks here... large or small? You haven't mentioned any in a while... I always look forward to your bank commentary.
Ok good luck! Keep doing what you're doing. If my portfolio was down 30% in 6 weeks (as you stated yesterday), I'd be looking to make some changes. But maybe that's just me. Guess you can always keep blaming the difficult market, even though it's soared to record highs. Wonder what happens if the market actually does get tough...
The Russell index is up what, like 11% this year and 30% since Jan 1 2023. I mean what do you want? Those are the real numbers, and it ain't just one sector. Your anecdotal evidence over a few stocks which we trade here are important to you but do not tell the story of the market. And even those you describe, like PSIX and KEQU have gone up 100's of percent since they were first mentioned here. The 'rules' that you trade by have certainly done you well. But just cause those rules are not working well now, doesn't mean the market is tough, it just means those rules only work in certain markets.
You've been saying the market is incredibly tough for just about forever. So, again, maybe that means the trading rules you go by only work under certain conditions, but when they work the returns are great.
R59- GERN article "hedge funds are bullish"
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/geron-corporation-nasdaq-gern-hedge-141642461.html
Hweb- The major indexes don't tell the story
The Russell 2000 is dead even since 11/7/2021 till today, so it hasn't done anything for 3 years. The S&P profits for the last couple years have 60%+ made up by the Mag 7. My wife had her portfolio in Morgan Stanley in 2023. Her broker(who was the managing broker for the entire floor) had her in the equal weight S&P, and she lost 5% for the year. while the S&P went up 24%. For the most part, if you didn't have the right large cap stocks, you generally were even or lost the last 2 years. Now you can say how stupendous most on this board have done over the last year. Fact is, SS & I are the only ones that have any recorded track record at all. Now Wadegarret portfolio has recorded returns since Jan 2022. While the S&P is up 24% & the Russell 2000 up 3% since Jan 2022, Wadegarret portfolio was up 167% as of last Friday for that same time period ! I know you like to say the reason for my losses lately have been because I'm in and out of stocks a lot, or that I only own 2 or 3 at any one time, but I don't agree. I was in KINS for 4.5 weeks, before getting out last Friday, and the average amount of time I've been in any one stock for the past 20 years is only about a month, while I had around 30%/year avg returns for that entire time. Also I have averaged having 5 stocks or less since 2008. Fact is, the style in which I've played stocks for 20 years in which I was so successful is no longer working, and in fact has stopped working for some time now. Just that its been even worst the last few months. Mind you also, the majority of profits I've made since on this board, are not generally from micro cap stocks, but more like larger small-mid cap.
SSKMP Managed Index (As Of 9/30/24)
Daily Performance
+0.23%
YTD Performance
+8.40% (Best Levels of 2024 and Overall)
Overall Performance
+508.83% (Including Options Trading +372.81%)
TISI ($15.25) - Up nicely in the last month, announced this afternoon the refinancing of their debt and extension of the maturity date for an additional 2 years. This removes some of the near-term credit risk. They mention a reduction in the spread on the debt, but until the 8-k is filed, we won't know by how much. Either way, I view this as a positive for the equity and look forward to the next two quarterly reports to see more progress on the turnaround. I still view fair value to be in the $25-$30 range, which incorporates a discount for the weak balance sheet. If they are able to continue to improve their balance sheet and add to their income statement turnaround, I think there is potential to see the stock north of $50 over the next 2 years.
Damn straight hweb!! Been a great year🤙...This could easily be the best year I have ever had trading stocks. If not, it will be my 2nd best year of all time. And a lot of my gains came from longer term hold, not flipping in and out of positions.
That is why I keep saying I'm setting myself up now to take advantage of certain losses by year end. Don't want to carry paper loses into next year if I don't have to.
Over buying certain positions on margin, like CXDO, FTK, SD and BRY, will work out just fine. Not only can I write off margin interest, but starting next week, I have from now till the end of December to sell loses (if I choose) w/o triggering a wash sale.
Feel better? How many more of these posts must we endure. Everyone else seems to be doing just fine (if not absolutely crushing it) in this market. Check the YTD gains for the S&P 500, Nasdaq, etc. 2024 has been another great year. On top of several great years. We're at record highs! Yet you continue to blame the difficult market. And not your crazy ass daytrading. Instead of whining about your poor performance, why not make some common sense moves to improve it? Owning more than 2 stocks and not constantly flipping in or out of those 2 stocks would be a good place to start.
R59- Inflation is a reality you can't get around
I mean is playing the S&P, or even just playing higher dividend paying stocks, the way to overcome inflation & beat a guaranteed fixed income interest ? The answer is yes only if both of the following are true at the same time. One is that the S&P would go up by around the same average %/year as it has the last 50+ years, or average that amount over time without having two happen. Two is that the S&P, while averaging the past average gain/year, can't first tank, and take a few years to come back. In other words, for those needing a certain amount coming in to pay their bills, there is huge risk playing the market IMO vs guaranteed fixed income interest, despite the fact that over any 15-20 year period, you're overall better off playing the market if you don't touch your stocks. I mean, so many things have to go right for anyone invested in the market to be able to skim profits off the market over time to pay ones bills. Also this risk would exist even if you played the S&P with half your cash, just to a lesser extent.
Personally I'd rather net 2.5% after inflation from owning T Bonds, than gambling in the market that I might make 7%/year after inflation if everything goes as expected. Lastly, gains from capital gains have both federal and state tax, as do dividends. while T Bond interest only has Federal Tax
KEQU- A dose of the reality of this market
Stock down 50% from recent highs, and quickly, on one slightly disappointing report ! I understand that some stocks have gone up 50% or even 100% real fast, but they a few and far between vs the dozens that tank like crazy, and often for little reason. I have played at least half dozen stocks over the last few months. Every one of them(other than GERN) had strong eps growth expected, and a small PEs going forward vs peers in the same exact sector.
However unlike 2003 to 2019 or so, small cap stocks just aren't acting rationally. That is, great reports and strong guidance doesn't move stocks in a healthy way. What do I mean by healthy ? That is, if an earnings report suggests the stock is worth 30% higher than the pre earnings price, it shouldn't go up 25% the first day, as those not holding into earnings, have hope for only 5% more. It also shouldn't go down on earnings day, and stay there for weeks, then 7-8 weeks later the stock go up 30% in two days. It also shouldn't not go up or stay flat the entire quarter.
In other words, if one expects to not have to hold into earnings to make out, here is what has to happen. You have to be able to buy the stock on earnings day or even the next day, and then hold over a matter of a few to several weeks, and expect that the stock will get to fair value. However almost every single stock I play either goes down or stays flat for the entire quarter after a great report- and it doesn't matter how cheap it is, or how much it was going up before I buy, or anything else. Also it doesn't matter if I stick with a stock for months, or just play it for a week or two, it never goes up more than a few % while I own it. Now I played PSIX multiple times on the way up, but only netted around 15%- 20% profit, and that was most I've made on a stock % wise in over six months !
For those up more than 20% over the last year- hats off to ya
Could the combination of the hurricane damage and a longshoreman's strike take the U.S. into a deep recession? Taking Warren Buffet's lead, this investor has been raising cash.
BKTI ($21.65) Bought back a few that I sold on the way up. Actually buying at a higher price than I sold. But remembering LMB is what has me doing so. Such a small share count can make a huge difference when earnings start dropping to the bottom line. LMB is now at around $76, down from a high of $82. This post is responding to a post I made a while back where I said I thought LMB might be a $70 or $80 stock in a few years. In reality, it only took a little over a year. But I didn't take my own advice and kept waiting for a better price.
I'd like to think BKTI can move to $40 or $50 in a few years. If so, I'd rather be a little early than miss the train altogether.
OT Skillz you must be sh*tting your pants watching the Mets now
SSKMP Trades
Sell 350 Shares of ENR
Note that this is a fictional portfolio and is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities
R59- I've really had it with this market
Nothing, nada, ziltch goes up after I buy it anymore- at least not more than 10% or so, and not too often. Then when I lose, the stock goes down 20% in like a week ! My portfolio is down 30% in 6 weeks or so, and not because I didn't pick some great stocks. To answer your question. Not only have I already given up on MU, I've given up on DAN as well. Back to GERN, which at least sticks around $4.50 & will move huge on the next news, and IART which either goes bankrupt, or goes up 200%-300% over the next year. The market in general is impossible to make out in, and I am very happy to have 93% of my money out of it- even if I make zero interest ! This market sucks !
Yet just yesterday you were bullish on MU ? Did you completely change your mind overnight ?
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175157608
Your losing your principal to inflation. If you're just scraping by now, how will it be in just a few years ?
R59- Ugh is exactly were I want to be
4.2% interest, no state tax, no risk of losing my principle. I worked hard in the market for 20 years to get here. Time to take it easy for a bit. Still playing with 7% of total cash- that's fine by me. Hey maybe I build it up to 50% yet. In the meantime I believe we get to buy this market at 45%+ off present values, within 2-3 years.
Come on that's silly. An outcome somewhere between those two wild extremes is much more likely.
IART- You make 300%-400% or lose everything
I really believe that at this point. I mean they either clean up their act, or they go under. I don't see that many in betweens
Semi sector has seen it's day-
If I didn't have everything put away, I'd play SOXS here with like 50K shares @ $20.50 !
BRY I own it but think issuing a PR solely for the purpose of "reaffirming strong liquidity position" would be like me posting on this Board "I don't lie about my trades". Seems like they could make that point in Q filings, analyst meetings, conferences etc. I'm hoping the price weakness is because institutional investors are sector rotating out of O&G and BRY is getting particularly slammed because of its 90% institutional ownership. The hedges should protect their ability to preserve the current dividend for the near future. Predicting O&G prices longer term is way above my pay grade, but if they crash the story ends badly with dividend cut and potentially inability to refinance debt. But I think it more likely the dividend holds and the price doubles over the next 6-12 months-- and you get paid while you wait.
$ESLA @ $1.20s: Has a $CAPR type move coming...Just incredible news posted Friday. Link:
News:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/estrella-immunopharma-achieves-complete-response-160000432.html
Thank you researcher. That helps.👍 I am going to look at VTLE, REI, and keep an eye on AESI to re-buy also. But like you said, we'll see what o&g prices do going forward.
PGNT Filing today makes me wonder if there's an ongoing power struggle:
https://www.otcmarkets.com/otcapi/company/dns/news/document/77444/content
Wade - I think you could safely do way better than 4% with a diversified portfolio of high quality dividend paying stocks, including high yielding preferred shares (SSK sometimes buys those). Then sell covered calls to greatly enhance monthly returns.
If I were you I'd be moving 5% of my treasuries into stocks and ETFs each quarter. That way you'd be buying more shares if the market drops.
There's no way I'd be happy with Treasury bond returns ! Ugh.
Definitely not a problem. For example one can take a loss on GM and buy F (Ford) the same day without creating a "wash sale".
Here's some clarification -
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/substantiallyidenticalsecurity.asp
Re: Tax loss...researcher, wouldn't this apply to my situation?..."A wash sale happens when you sell a security at a loss and buy a “substantially identical” security within 30 days before or after the sale."
I don't want to chance it. Need any/all losses I can take this year.
HRTG - Nelson, thanks for all the good info.
BRY - good points, but long term the key issue impacting cash flows is crude oil prices. Who know where crude prices will be in 6 to 12 months ???
btw, the tax loss wait period pertains to individual stocks, not sectors. So you could take the loss on BRY, buy VTLE on the same day and still claim the full loss for BRY. However you could not buy BRY back for 30 days if you wanted to claim the loss. Otherwise your loss would be deferred.
BRY...On the other hand though, Berry's cash flow is/has been very strong. They have done an excellent job of paying down debt while paying a nice dividend.
Re: Debt reduction (from last Q's cc)...
"On the strength of our free cash flow, we continue to prioritize debt reduction in Q2, driving our revolver balance down to $36 million at the end of the quarter, and we further reduced the revolver to $28 million at the end of July and this included the final payment of $20 million we made on the 2023 Macpherson transaction. Reducing our debt balances speaks to Berry's proactive nature to maintain a strong balance sheet"
Berry also has nice gas assets in Utah. NG has been going up at a good clip as oil prices have been dropping.
I'll be reset next week, so we'll see what happens and I'll go from there. But if I'm going to sell any losses in BRY and SD, I don't want to chance buying VTLE or REI for 30 days past that because I want/need the losses for this year..
Re: Berry's Utah gas assets (this is from their Q2 cc)...
"Turning to Utah. The Uinta Basin has seen increased activity and consolidation, and this is exciting. The 4 horizontal wells we formed into earlier this year were put on production in the second quarter on our performing better than our predrill estimates. These 4 wells are adjacent to our existing acreage on operations. We believe the resource on Berry's nearly 100,000 net operated acres which is almost entirely held by production, has the potential to be significant. Berry has a cost advantage position in this play.
We are in the shallow end of the basin.
We have no entry cost and have significant infrastructure in place, which will drive our long-term capital efficiency. An example of this is our gas production and related infrastructure, which will help us reduce fuel costs in our drilling and completion operations. Based on what we know today, these wells are highly economical and will compete for capital with the rest of our portfolio.
Our strategy with this plant is consistent with our capital discipline and proven financial policy of living within free cash flow while increasing enterprise value. We've kicked off a process to farm out a portion of our 2025 and 2026 program, which we believe will allow us to better manage capital and could potentially bring additional technical insight.
We are very excited about the resource potential we have in Utah and look forward to sharing our future development plans later this year."
https://capedge.com/transcript/1705873/2024Q2/BRY
LTUM>>>>Current over supply of lithium may be gone by end of 2025. Supply, demand ratio may favor demand sooner than a lot of people think. Still, it's early but LTUM should be kept on your watch lists. PPS has been moving UP lately. Risky long shot with huge reward possible. Just a FYI. HAWK
ENR
Sold ENR At $31.50, decided to look for more profits in this frothy market. So I decided to sell it. getting near short-term resistance. will try to buyback on weakness. All is just my opinion and I could always be wrong though.
HRTG... didn't give the piece my full attention.. however they interviewed an insurance adjuster and one howeowner that was effected by a Hurricane, not sure which one, but think it was not recent... maybe three or five or even a few more years back. Also interviewed a lawyer for the homeowner... but discussed in general, more caes.
I guess the adjuster is the one filing the whistleblower suit and he said that were a bunch of insurance claims, in particular the one with the homeowner that was also in the piece, where he would go to the claimants home to review the damage and file the required forms. He said in this particular case where his estimate was for a complete rebuild, and in a bunch of others, HRTG lowered the damage estimate.... by 90+ percent, without the adjuster's knowledge. In addition I think a different adjuster said he was told under no circumstances should he say a home required a new roof. Only that it needed patching or whatever.
The piece was not solely about HRTG, but the general shitty business practices of FL (and other coastal states) P&C insurers .... but HRTG was the only one they mentioned, and the people in the segment mentioned. Basically they said it was a regular business practice for these insurers to make a lowball offer to the insured while they were in a bad state due to their home damage, and force them to go to court if they wanted more.
HRTG said some stuff like... they blamed the old crappy software for deleting the names of the adjusters from the reports, and said their systems and have changed for the better. They also gave out some numbers.. and I am sorta making this up.. but something like after the supervisor review of the claims adjuster's report, overall, 46 percent of changes are for lower damages, and 26% are for higher damages.
Anyway, it made the P&C insurers in FL look like shite; and since HRTG was the only one (I think) actually mentioned by name.. made them look like real shite.
HRTG - Any thoughts? (eom)
HRTG I saw the 60 Minutes segment
I'm concerned. Also, with the hurricane helene destruction and need of supplies, this will not sit well with many people in the south. Though it is not a public union (like the air traffic controllers), wouldn't be surprised if the govt intervenes due to helene national emergency.
The dockworkers strike was one reason I sold INSW.
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