Gaming European Power Prices
This thread seems to be another good example of how one never knows how different markets work, in different localities, with different rules to favor certain players, ways to game the system, etc. I don't claim to have any local knowledge of European markets, but if this is anywhere close to the truth, seems like the market would be very easy to game:
https://twitter.com/agnostoxxx/status/1564546393192255493
There's also a growing movement among citizens in Europe and UK to just not pay one's power bill (which has gone up by 5x - 10x). Will govts allow companies to turn off the power on their own people? I don't believe govts have any compassion for the people they supposedly represent, but just from the standpoint of remaining in charge, will they really turn people's power off and risk riots and burning down of govt buildings? Will they impose price controls on companies? Will govts just start declaring prices on certain things? Electricity? Natgas? Could they nationalize energy companies, attempting to blame them rather than their own stupid govt policies? Who knows, but lots of possibilities.
American LNG exporters seem to be in the catbird seat at the moment. But in this crazy world, who's to say govts won't do something nutty like declare debts to LNG companies void, and from now on the price they will pay is fixed at X. Not predicting it, but just saying that the leverage could swing the other way also, who knows. LNG companies need to sell product. Govts are very interventionist these days, these are not free markets.
As the old saying goes in real estate, if you have one small loan at a bank and you can't make your payments . . . . you have a problem. But if you're a huge businessman whose loans make up 30% of the bank's loan portfolio and you can't make your payments . . . . now the bank has a problem.
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