Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Conclusion
Trend lines can offer great insight, but if used improperly, they can also produce false signals. Other items - such as horizontal support and resistance levels or peak-and-trough analysis - should be employed to validate trend line breaks. While trend lines have become a very popular aspect of technical analysis, they are merely one tool for establishing, analyzing, and confirming a trend. Trend lines should not be the final arbiter, but should serve merely as a warning that a change in trend may be imminent. By using trend line breaks for warnings, investors and traders can pay closer attention to other confirming signals for a potential change in trend.
The uptrend line for VeriSign (VRSN) was touched 4 times, and seemed to be a valid support level. Even though the trend line was broken in Jan-00, the previous reaction low held, and did not confirm the trend line break. In addition, the stock recorded a new higher high prior to the trend line break.
Daily Candlestick Chart for SPBU
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPBU
Fundamental analysis
Fundamental analysis can be valuable, but it should be approached with caution. If you are reading research written by a sell-side analyst, it is important to be familiar with the analyst behind the report. We all have personal biases, and every analyst has some sort of bias. There is nothing wrong with this, and the research can still be of great value. Learn what the ratings mean and the track record of an analyst before jumping off the deep end. Corporate statements and press releases offer good information, but they should be read with a healthy degree of skepticism to separate the facts from the spin. Press releases don't happen by accident; they are an important PR tool for companies. Investors should become skilled readers to weed out the important information and ignore the hype.
Broadening Formation: A broadening formation is an example of a consolidation pattern and a highly useful tool in the prediction of the likelihood of a reversal in the direction of a current trend. When found in an uptrend it indicates not a continuation of that trend, but a near-term reversal of the price action.
The broadening formation occurs when the fluctuation within the price produces a series of higher highs and of lower lows that steadily widen over time and are generally thought to be found only in found in topping formations where they are considered to be the result of unrealistic expectations of bullish investors.
Unlike the majority of other consolidation patterns, broadening formations feature increasingly wide ranges and are subject to much greater levels of volatility as time passes. Volume levels increase as the share price rises, which although normally indicates a bullish position rallies in this instance usually prove to be very short lived and the following declines are prone to decimating former support levels leading to an eventual collapse.
$LIGA BarChart Trader's Cheat Sheet
http://www.barchart.com/cheatsheet.php?sym=LIGA
Daily Candlestick Chart for TGWI
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=TGWI
Gaps appear more frequently on daily charts, where every day is an opportunity to create an opening gap. Gaps on weekly or monthly charts are fairly rare: the gap would have to occur between Friday's close and Monday's open for weekly charts and between the last day of the month's close and the first day of the next month's for the monthly charts. Gaps can be subdivided into four basic categories: Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion.
Daily Candlestick Chart for USPR
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=USPR
Divergence: Divergence is a trading pattern in which the relationship between price action and an oscillator indicator is measured.
If the price begins to move in a negative correlation to an indicator, (ie. higher "highs" in price, but lower "highs" in indicator), it could be viewed as a leading indicator for a potential change in price direction.
$GSTV BarChart Trader's Cheat Sheet
http://www.barchart.com/cheatsheet.php?sym=GSTV
Daily Candlestick Chart for GPCM
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=GPCM
$SPQS BarChart Trader's Cheat Sheet
http://www.barchart.com/cheatsheet.php?sym=SPQS
Looking at Business Plans
The business plan, model or concept forms the bedrock upon which all else is built. If the plan, model or concepts stink, there is little hope for the business. For a new business, the questions may be these: Does its business make sense? Is it feasible? Is there a market? Can a profit be made? For an established business, the questions may be: Is the company's direction clearly defined? Is the company a leader in the market? Can the company maintain leadership?
Daily Candlestick Chart for HSCO
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=HSCO
Drawdown: Drawdown is a measure of peak-to-trough decline, usually given in percentage form. In trading, drawdown refers to the reduction in your trading account from a trade or a series of trades.
For instance, your trading account is initially at $10,000 then you lost $2,500 today and $2,500 the next day. Your account would then be at $5,000 and you would’ve had a 50% drawdown. In other words, a drawdown measures how much you’ve lost before you get your account back to par. But with a $5,000 remaining balance, you’d need to win another $5,000 to bring your account back to breakeven … That’s a 100% gain!
Knowing your trade’s drawdown is an important part of risk management. Traders usually take note of their maximum drawdown, which is the largest top-to-bottom loss incurred under a trading strategy. While “Maximum Drawdown” sounds like your typical summer blockbuster movie, it ain’t cool since it basically measures your biggest losing streak!
What is the P.E. ratio?
The Price to Earnings ratio is simply the price of a company's stock divided by its Earnings Per Share. It is often used as an indicator of whether a stock is overpriced, underpriced, or on par. The PE ratio by itself is not always enough to make a good determination but it can be helpful to compare it with other companies in the same industry. The NASDAQ's average P/E is about 35.
Technical Analysis What is it?
Technical Analysis is the forecasting of future financial price movements based on an examination of past price movements. Like weather forecasting, technical analysis does not result in absolute predictions about the future. Instead, technical analysis can help investors anticipate what is "likely" to happen to prices over time. Technical analysis uses a wide variety of charts that show price over time.
Technical analysis is applicable to stocks, indices, commodities, futures or any tradable instrument where the price is influenced by the forces of supply and demand. Price refers to any combination of the open, high, low, or close for a given security over a specific time frame. The time frame can be based on intraday (1-minute, 5-minutes, 10-minutes, 15-minutes, 30-minutes or hourly), daily, weekly or monthly price data and last a few hours or many years. In addition, some technical analysts include volume or open interest figures with their study of price action.
Daily Candlestick Chart for UNDY
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=UNDY
Diamond: The diamond formation, more commonly known as a diamond top, is a relatively rare chart formation used in technical analysis. When a diamond top forms, it forms at the conclusion of a long uptrend in price, and it indicates an imminent reversal of the trend. As such, the diamond top formation generates a very strong sell signal.
Traders and technical analysts recognize a diamond formation by first recognizing a head-and-shoulders formation (a peak and trough, followed by a higher peak and another trough, followed by a peak somewhere below the level of the previous peak: in other words, three peaks, the middle one being the tallest.) Four trendlines are drawn: one (ascending) from the first peak to the second peak, one (descending) from the second peak to the third peak, one (ascending) from the second trough to the low of the third peak, and one (descending) from the first trough to the second trough. The four lines altogether form a rough diamond shape, giving the chart its name.
The diamond top forms an overall descending trend channel, allowing traders to determine levels of support and resistance for the asset's price as it enters a downtrend or a momentary reversal. However, if the lower support line of the channel is broken, traders consider it likely that asset prices will reverse and begin again to climb.
Where does this overhead supply come from? Demand was obviously increasing around 18 from Oct-98 to Mar-99 (green oval). Therefore, there were a lot of bullish buyers of the stock around 18. When the price declined below 18 and fell to around 14, many of these (now unhappy) bulls were probably still holding the stock. This left a supply overhang (commonly known as resistance) around 18. When the stock rebounded to 18, many of the green-oval-bulls probably took the opportunity to sell and "escape" with little to no loss. When this supply was exhausted, the demand was able to overpower supply and advance above resistance at 18.
What is More Important than Why
In his book, The Psychology of Technical Analysis, Tony Plummer paraphrases Oscar Wilde by stating:
A technical analyst knows the price of everything, but the value of nothing
Daily Candlestick Chart for EFTI
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=EFTI
An Oldie but Goodie
Much of our understanding of chart patterns can be attributed to the work of Richard Schabacker. His 1932 classic, Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits, laid the foundations for modern pattern analysis. In Technical Analysis of Stock Trends (1948), Edwards and Magee credit Schabacker for most of the concepts put forth in the first part of their book. We would also like to acknowledge Messrs. Schabacker, Edwards and Magee, and John Murphy as the driving forces behind these articles and our understanding of chart patterns.
Pattern analysis may seem straightforward, but it is by no means an easy task. Schabacker states:
The science of chart reading, however, is not as easy as the mere memorizing of certain patterns and pictures and recalling what they generally forecast. Any general stock chart is a combination of countless different patterns and its accurate analysis depends upon constant study, long experience and knowledge of all the fine points, both technical and fundamental, and, above all, the ability to weigh opposing indications against each other, to appraise the entire picture in the light of its most minute and composite details as well as in the recognition of any certain and memorized formula.
Even though Schabacker refers to "the science of chart reading", technical analysis can at times be less science and more art. In addition, pattern recognition can be open to interpretation, which can be subject to personal biases. To defend against biases and confirm pattern interpretations, other aspects of technical analysis should be employed to verify or refute the conclusions drawn. While many patterns may seem similar in nature, no two patterns are exactly alike. False breakouts, bogus reads and exceptions to the rule are all part of the ongoing education.
Careful and constant study are required for successful chart analysis. On the AMZN chart above, the stock broke resistance from a head and shoulders reversal. While the trend is now bearish, analysis must continue to confirm the bearish trend.
Novellus Systems, Inc. (NVLS) chart patterns example chart from StockCharts.com
Novellus (NVLS)[Nvls]
Some analysts might have labeled the NVLS chart as a head and shoulders pattern with neckline support around 17.50. Whether or not this is robust remains open to debate. Even though the stock broke neckline support at 17.50, it repeatedly moved back above its support break. This refusal might have been taken as a sign of strength and justified a reassessment of the pattern.
Daily Candlestick Chart for HLNT
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=HLNT
In this example of the NASDAQ 100 Index $NDX), the stock broke resistance at 935 in May-97 and traded just above this resistance level for over a month. The ability to remain above resistance established 935 as a new support level. The stock subsequently rose to 1150, but then fell back to test support at 935. After the second test of support at 935, this level is well established.
Daily Candlestick Chart for KADR
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=KADR
Uptrend Line
An uptrend line has a positive slope and is formed by connecting two or more low points. The second low must be higher than the first for the line to have a positive slope. Uptrend lines act as support and indicate that net-demand (demand less supply) is increasing even as the price rises. A rising price combined with increasing demand is very bullish, and shows a strong determination on the part of the buyers. As long as prices remain above the trend line, the uptrend is considered solid and intact. A break below the uptrend line indicates that net-demand has weakened and a change in trend could be imminent.
$LUNL BarChart Trader's Cheat Sheet
http://www.barchart.com/cheatsheet.php?sym=LUNL
Discretionary Trading: While other trading styles emphasize the reading of signals based on mathematical formulas or price action patterns, or fundamental analysis alone, discretionary traders are the "jack of all trades" of the Forex market and tend to incorporate all forms of analysis. These traders not only rely on their well developed trading processes and framework of the fundamentals and technicals to make a decision, but also sometimes intuition as well (i.e., years of market experience). Because of their experience, discretionary traders tend to be flexible with their trading rules and more adaptable to market changes.
The downside to the discretionary trading style is that trading decisions are more susceptible to the strong emotional effects of managing financial risk. Also, depending on the time frame, it requires more attention to the market than mechanical or automated trading methods.
What is the Bid price? What is the Ask price?
When you request a quote for a stock, you will receive the bid price and the ask price. The bid price is the best (highest) price you might receive if you sell your stock back to the market. The ask price is the best (lowest) price you might receive if you buy stock from the market.
You are not guaranteed to get these prices because the market fluctuates constantly and prices change quickly. Also, if you buy (or sell) shares of a low-volume stock, you run the risk of affecting the price due to excess demand (or supply).
Daily Candlestick Chart for WLOL
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=WLOL
Industrial Metals and Bonds
Not all commodities are created equal. In particular, oil is prone to supply shocks. Unrest in oil producing countries or regions usually causes oil prices to surge. A price rise due to a supply shock is negative for stocks, but a price rise due to rising demand can be positive for stocks. This is also true for industrial metals, which are less susceptible to these supply shocks. As a result, chartists can watch industrial metals prices for clues on the economy and the stock market. Rising prices reflect increasing demand and a healthy economy. Falling prices reflect decreasing demand and a weak economy. The chart below shows a clear positive relationship between industrial metals and the S
Support and Resistance Zones
Because technical analysis is not an exact science, it is useful to create support and resistance zones. This is contrary to the strategy mapped out for Lucent Technologies (LU), but it is sometimes the case. Each security has its own characteristics, and analysis should reflect the intricacies of the security. Sometimes, exact support and resistance levels are best, and, sometimes, zones work better. Generally, the tighter the range, the more exact the level. If the trading range spans less than 2 months and the price range is relatively tight, then more exact support and resistance levels are best suited. If a trading range spans many months and the price range is relatively large, then it is best to use support and resistance zones. These are only meant as general guidelines, and each trading range should be judged on its own merits.
Returning to the analysis of Halliburton (HAL), we can see that the November high of the trading range (33 to 44) extended more than 20% past the low, making the range quite large relative to the price. Because the September support break forms our first resistance level, we are ready to set up a resistance zone after the November high is formed, probably around early December. At this point though, we are still unsure if a large trading range will develop. The subsequent low in December, which was just higher than the October low, offers evidence that a trading range is forming, and we are ready to set the support zone. As long as the stock trades within the boundaries set by the support and resistance zone, we will consider the trading range to be valid. Support may be looked upon as an opportunity to buy, and resistance as an opportunity to sell.
Disparity Index: The disparity index is a percentage measurement for the position of the current closing price of an asset relative to that asset's moving average. Traders commonly attribute this measurement to Steve Nison, based on his book Beyond Candlesticks.
The disparity index can take either a positive or a negative value. A positive value indicates that the asset's price is rapidly increasing, while a negative value indicates that the price is rapidly decreasing. A value of zero means that the asset's current price is exactly consistent with its moving average.
The disparity index crossing the zero line reflects an extremely rapid change in the trend of a given asset, and is therefore a strong early-warning indicator of the asset's increasing momentum.
Nison's book suggests that the disparity index can indicate whether an asset is overbought (in the case of a positive value) or oversold (in the case of a negative.) Since overbought and oversold assets are very vulnerable to rapid price reversals, the disparity index is a good indicator of when following the trend of a given asset might be a dangerous proposition.
Daily Candlestick Chart for CRTP
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=CRTP
Kagi Chart Parameters
There are three ways to specify the reversal amount that is used in the construction of a Kagi chart: Absolute points, Percentage, and Average True Range (ATR).
Absolute Points
With the Absolute Points method, you specify the number of points that a stock must reverse before a change in the Kagi line occurs. The advantage of this method is that it is very easy to understand and predict where reversals will occur. The disadvantage is that the point value needs to be different for high priced stocks than for low priced stocks. Typically, you will need to choose a value that is roughly 1/20th the average price of the stock during the time frame you want to chart. Common values include 1, 2, 4, and 10.
Important Note: The Default for Kagi "Pts" method is currently 14, which is too large for most stocks. You'll need to change it to a smaller number to get a useful chart.
Percentage
The Percentage method causes a reversal each time prices move more than the percentage that you specified. This has the advantage of not needing to change the setting if the value of the stock changes significantly during the time period being charted. The disadvantage is that it isn't easy to predict exactly where the next reversal will occur.
Average True Range (ATR)
The Average True Range (ATR) method uses the value of the ATR indicator to determine where the next reversal should occur. The ATR indicator is designed to ignore the normal volatility of a stock, and thus it can "automatically" find good reversal levels regardless of the value or volatility of the stock selected. ATR with a value of 14 is the default value for Kagi charts and should generate a very usable chart in most cases.
In Nov/Dec-99, Lucent Technologies (LU) formed a trading range that resembled a head and shoulders pattern (red oval). When the stock broke support at 60, there was little or no time to exit. Even though there is a long black candlestick indicating an open at 59, the stock fell so fast that it was impossible to exit above 44. In hindsight, the support line could have been drawn as an upward sloping neckline (blue line), and the support break would have come at 61. This is only 1 point higher and a trader would have had to take action immediately to avoid a sharp fall. However, the lows match up rather nicely on the neckline, and it is something to consider when drawing support lines.
Daily Candlestick Chart for NHVCF
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=NHVCF
Downtrend Line
A downtrend line has a negative slope and is formed by connecting two or more high points. The second high must be lower than the first for the line to have a negative slope. Downtrend lines act as resistance, and indicate that net-supply (supply less demand) is increasing even as the price declines. A declining price combined with increasing supply is very bearish, and shows the strong resolve of the sellers. As long as prices remain below the downtrend line, the downtrend is solid and intact. A break above the downtrend line indicates that net-supply is decreasing and that a change of trend could be imminent.
For a detailed explanation of trend changes, which are different than just trend line breaks, please see our article on the Dow Theory.
Daily Candlestick Chart for FEEC
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=FEEC
Followers
|
3286
|
Posters
|
|
Posts (Today)
|
0
|
Posts (Total)
|
2804248
|
Created
|
08/22/10
|
Type
|
Free
|
Moderator Nilbud | |||
Assistants mick ManicTrader PhotoChick Kirimi $Pistol Pete$ |
![]() ![]() ![]() UPDATE; 5-1-22 courtesy of charting /\ wit tweezer top calls /\ Tony @Montana_Trades Really good study sheet on Candlestick Patterns [-chart]pbs.twimg.com/media/FRn8188XMAAdZvk?format=jpg&name=small[/chart] ![]()
![]()
02-07-2021
|
Posts Today
|
0
|
Posts (Total)
|
2804248
|
Posters
|
|
Moderator
|
|
Assistants
|
Volume | |
Day Range: | |
Bid Price | |
Ask Price | |
Last Trade Time: |