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Daily Candlestick Chart for DISK
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=DISK
Deflationary Relationships
Murphy notes that the world shifted from an inflationary environment to a deflationary environment around 1998. It started with the collapse of the Thai Baht in the summer of 1997 and quickly spread to neighboring countries to become known as Asian currency crisis. Asian central bankers raised interest rates to support their currencies, but high interest rates choked their economies and compounded the problems. The subsequent threat of global deflation pushed money out of stocks and into bonds. Stocks fell sharply, Treasury bonds rose sharply and US interest rates decline. This marked a decoupling between stocks and bonds that would last for many years. Big deflationary events continued as the Nasdaq bubble burst in 2000, the housing bubble burst in 2006 and the financial crisis hit in 2007.
The intermarket relationships during a deflationary environment are largely the same except for one. Stocks and bonds are inversely correlated during a deflationary environment. This means stocks rise when bonds fall and visa versa. By extension, this also means that stocks have a positive relationship with interest rates. Yes, stocks and interest rates rise together.
Obviously, deflationary forces change the whole dynamic. Deflation is negative for stocks and commodities, but positive for bonds. A rise in bond prices and fall in interest rates increases the deflationary threat and this puts downward pressure on stocks. Conversely, a decline in bond prices and rise in interest rates decreases the deflationary threat and this is positive for stocks. The list below summarizes the key intermarket relationships during a deflationary environment.
An INVERSE relationship between bonds and stocks
A POSITIVE relationship between interest rates and stocks
An INVERSE relationship between commodities and bonds
A POSITIVE relationship between commodities and interest rates
A POSITIVE relationship between stocks and commodities
An INVERSE relationship between the US Dollar and commodities
Daily Candlestick Chart for NVAE
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=NVAE
Downtrend Line
A downtrend line has a negative slope and is formed by connecting two or more high points. The second high must be lower than the first for the line to have a negative slope. Downtrend lines act as resistance, and indicate that net-supply (supply less demand) is increasing even as the price declines. A declining price combined with increasing supply is very bearish, and shows the strong resolve of the sellers. As long as prices remain below the downtrend line, the downtrend is solid and intact. A break above the downtrend line indicates that net-supply is decreasing and that a change of trend could be imminent.
For a detailed explanation of trend changes, which are different than just trend line breaks, please see our article on the Dow Theory.
Daily Candlestick Chart for PRPM
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Daily Candlestick Chart for GDSI
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In this example of the NASDAQ 100 Index $NDX), the stock broke resistance at 935 in May-97 and traded just above this resistance level for over a month. The ability to remain above resistance established 935 as a new support level. The stock subsequently rose to 1150, but then fell back to test support at 935. After the second test of support at 935, this level is well established.
Daily Candlestick Chart for GTMM
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Management
In order to execute a business plan, a company requires top-quality management. Investors might look at management to assess their capabilities, strengths and weaknesses. Even the best-laid plans in the most dynamic industries can go to waste with bad management (AMD in semiconductors). Alternatively, even strong management can make for extraordinary success in a mature industry (Alcoa in aluminum). Some of the questions to ask might include: How talented is the management team? Do they have a track record? How long have they worked together? Can management deliver on its promises? If management is a problem, it is sometimes best to move on.
The graph above shows the economic cycle in green, the stock market cycle in red and the best performing sectors at the top. The green economic cycle corresponds to the business cycle shown above. The centerline marks the contraction/expansion threshold for the economy. Notice how the red market cycle leads the business cycle. The market turns up and crosses the centerline before the economic cycle turns. Similarly, the market turns down and crosses below the centerline ahead of the economic cycle.
Daily Candlestick Chart for BCDH
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=BCDH
Derivatives: Derivatives are financial instruments that acquires the majority of their value from the price of the underlying asset they are tracking such as commodities and currencies, or from securities such as stocks and bonds.
Swaps, futures, forwards, and options are the most common derivatives. Investors trade them on exchange or over-the-counter usually as an alternative to speculating in the underlying asset, or to hedge their risk on a position in the underlying asset.
What is a small-cap stock? Mid-cap? Large-cap?
These terms refer to a company's market capitalization, which is the number of outstanding shares times the stock's price.
Small cap: $250 Million to $2 Billion, approximately
Mid cap: $2 Billion to $10 Billion, approximately
Large cap: $10 Billion and up, approximately
Daily Candlestick Chart for SRCH
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Daily Candlestick Chart for QASP
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CFD: In finance, the term 'CFD' stands for Contract For Difference. This is a contract between two parties, typically described as "buyer" and "seller" to exchange the difference in value of a financial instrument between the time at which the contract is opened and the time it is closed. In effect CFDs are financial derivatives that allow traders to take advantage of prices moving up or prices moving down on underlying financial instruments and are often used to speculate on those markets
Daily Candlestick Chart for FITX
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=FITX
Currency Peg: A currency peg, sometimes referred to as a fixed exchange rate, is a kind of exchange rate policy wherein a country’s domestic currency is only allowed to fluctuate within a narrow range (usually between -1% to 1%) against the value of another currency.
Currency pegging is usually done by countries who wish to stabilize their global trade operations. By using a currency peg, risk caused by exchange rate fluctuations of businesses involved in international trade is reduced. This kind of exchange rate policy is very useful for countries with robust trade industries.
China, the Bahamas, and Marshall Islands have pegged their currencies to the U.S. dollar; Niger and Senegal to the French franc; and Bangladesh, Czech Republic and Thailand to a basket of several select currencies.
Daily Candlestick Chart for WCUI
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Support and Resistance Zones
Because technical analysis is not an exact science, it is useful to create support and resistance zones. This is contrary to the strategy mapped out for Lucent Technologies (LU), but it is sometimes the case. Each security has its own characteristics, and analysis should reflect the intricacies of the security. Sometimes, exact support and resistance levels are best, and, sometimes, zones work better. Generally, the tighter the range, the more exact the level. If the trading range spans less than 2 months and the price range is relatively tight, then more exact support and resistance levels are best suited. If a trading range spans many months and the price range is relatively large, then it is best to use support and resistance zones. These are only meant as general guidelines, and each trading range should be judged on its own merits.
Returning to the analysis of Halliburton (HAL), we can see that the November high of the trading range (33 to 44) extended more than 20% past the low, making the range quite large relative to the price. Because the September support break forms our first resistance level, we are ready to set up a resistance zone after the November high is formed, probably around early December. At this point though, we are still unsure if a large trading range will develop. The subsequent low in December, which was just higher than the October low, offers evidence that a trading range is forming, and we are ready to set the support zone. As long as the stock trades within the boundaries set by the support and resistance zone, we will consider the trading range to be valid. Support may be looked upon as an opportunity to buy, and resistance as an opportunity to sell.
Ascending Trend Channel: An ascending trend channel is a basic chart pattern used in technical analysis.
Ascending trend channels are a useful tool due to their ability to predict overall changes in trend. As long as prices remain within the ascending trend channel, the upward trend in price can be expected to continue. As soon as prices exceed either trendline forming the channel, however, a strong signal either to buy or to sell is generated. A break through the upper trendline generates a strong buy signal, while a break through the lower trendline generates a strong sell signal.
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Daily Candlestick Chart for GEFI
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Daily Candlestick Chart for GRMC
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Always Another Level
Even after a new trend has been identified, there is always another "important" level close at hand. Technicians have been accused of sitting on the fence and never taking an unqualified stance. Even if they are bullish, there is always some indicator or some level that will qualify their opinion.
Daily Candlestick Chart for COHO
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=COHO
Sector Rotation
Unsurprisingly, the business cycle influences the rotation of stock market sectors and industry groups. Certain sectors perform better than others during specific phases of the business cycle. Knowing the stage of the business cycle can help investors position themselves in the right sectors and avoid the wrong sectors.
Daily Candlestick Chart for BBDA
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Short Selling Process
Here is the process:
Request the short sell from your brokerage.
Your brokerage will lend you the shares, if they have them available. It's not uncommon for the shares to be unavailable.
Your brokerage will immediately try to sell the shares on the stock market.
Cash from the sale goes into a special short-sell account that you cannot access. It is used as collateral for the shares that you borrowed.
Wait for the stock to go down.
Finish the trade by choosing "Buy to Cover." This action will buy shares from the market and return them to your brokerage. You will have made a profit if your short sale price was higher than your buy back price (minus any commissions).
Note that your brokerage may request that you return the shares at any time. They may need to return the shares to other customers.
Bank of Japan (BOJ) Monetary Policy Meeting and Announcement: Release schedule : No set time, usually between 2:00 and 4:00 (GMT); monthly, in the middle of the month
Source of report : Bank of Japan
Web Address : http://www.boj.or.jp/en/index.htm
Address of Release : http://www.boj.or.jp/en/theme/seisaku/kettei/index.htm
Schedule of Meetings : http://www.boj.or.jp/en/theme/seisaku/index.htm
Staples/Discretionary Ratio
Chartists can also compare the performance of the consumer discretionary sector to the consumer staples sector for clues on the economy. Stocks in the consumer discretionary sector represent products that are optional. These industry groups include apparel retailers and produces, shoe retailers and produces, restaurants and autos. Stocks in the consumer staples sector represent products that are necessary, such as soap, toothpaste, groceries, beverages and medicine. The consumer discretionary sector tends to outperform when the economy is buoyant and growing. This sector underperforms when the economy is struggling or contracting.
Chartists can compare the performance of these two with a simple ratio chart of the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) divided by the Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP). The chart above shows this ratio with the S
While technical analysts use charts almost exclusively, the use of charts is not limited to just technical analysis. Because charts provide an easy-to-read graphical representation of a security's price movement over a specific period of time, they can also be of great benefit to fundamental analysts. A graphical historical record makes it easy to spot the effect of key events on a security's price, its performance over a period of time and whether it's trading near its highs, near its lows, or in between.
A resistance breakout signals that demand (bulls) has gained the upper hand and a support break signals that supply (bears) has won the battle.
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Standard Pivot Points
Standard Pivot Points begin with a base Pivot Point. This is a simple average of the high, low and close. The middle Pivot Point is shown as a solid line between the support and resistance pivots. Keep in mind that the high, low and close are all from the prior period.
Pivot Point (P) = (High Low Close)/3
Support 1 (S1) = (P x 2) - High
Support 2 (S2) = P - (High - Low)
Resistance 1 (R1) = (P x 2) - Low
Resistance 2 (R2) = P (High - Low)
The chart below shows the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) with Standard Pivot points on a 15 minute chart. At the start of trading on June 9th, the Pivot Point is in the middle, the resistance levels are above and the support levels are below. These levels remain constant throughout the day.
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