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Lo and MacKinlay used powerful computers and advanced econometric analysis to test the randomness of security prices. Although this book is a heavy read, the findings should be of interest to technical analysts and chartists. In short, this book documents the presence of predictable components in stock prices.
Key points on the benefits of arithmetic and semi-log scale
Arithmetic scales are useful when the price range is confined within a relatively tight range.
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Ichimoku Clouds
Introduction
The Ichimoku Cloud, also known as Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, is a versatile indicator that defines support and resistance, identifies trend direction, gauges momentum and provides trading signals. Ichimoku Kinko Hyo translates into "one look equilibrium chart". With one look, chartists can identify the trend and look for potential signals within that trend. The indicator was developed by Goichi Hosoda, a journalist, and published in his 1969 book. Even though the Ichimoku Cloud may seem complicated when viewed on the price chart, it is really a straight forward indicator that is very usable. It was, after all, created by a journalist, not a rocket scientist! Moreover, the concepts are easy to understand and the signals are well-defined.
Calculation
Four of the five plots within the Ichimoku Cloud are based on the average of the high and low over a given period of time. For example, the first plot is simply an average of the 9-day high and 9-day low. Before computers were widely available, it would have been easier to calculate this high-low average rather than a 9-day moving average. The Ichimoku Cloud consists of five plots:
Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line): (9-period high 9-period low)/2))
The default setting is 9 periods and can be adjusted. On a daily
chart, this line is the mid point of the 9 day high-low range,
which is almost two weeks.
Kijun-sen (Base Line): (26-period high 26-period low)/2))
The default setting is 26 periods and can be adjusted. On a daily
chart, this line is the mid point of the 26 day high-low range,
which is almost one month).
Senkou Span A (Leading Span A): (Conversion Line Base Line)/2))
This is the midpoint between the Conversion Line and the Base Line.
The Leading Span A forms one of the two Cloud boundaries. It is
referred to as "Leading" because it is plotted 26 periods in the future
and forms the faster Cloud boundary.
Senkou Span B (Leading Span B): (52-period high 52-period low)/2))
On the daily chart, this line is the mid point of the 52 day high-low range,
which is a little less than 3 months. The default calculation setting is
52 periods, but can be adjusted. This value is plotted 26 periods in the future
and forms the slower Cloud boundary.
Chikou Span (Lagging Span): Close plotted 26 days in the past
The default setting is 26 periods, but can be adjusted.
This tutorial will use the English equivalents when explaining the various plots. The chart below shows the Dow Industrials with the Ichimoku Cloud plots. The Conversion Line (blue) is the fastest and most sensitive line. Notice that it follows price action the closest. The Base Line (red) trails the faster Conversion Line, but follows price action pretty well. The relationship between the Conversion Line and Base Line is similar to the relationship between a 9-day moving average and 26-day moving average. The 9-day is faster and more closely follows the price plot. The 26-day is slower and lags behind the 9-day. Incidentally, notice that 9 and 26 are the same periods used to calculate MACD.
Analyzing the Cloud
The Cloud (Kumo) is the most prominent feature of the Ichimoku Cloud plots. The Leading Span A (green) and Leading Span B (red) form the Cloud. The Leading Span A is the average of the Conversion Line and the Base Line. Because the Conversion Line and Base Line are calculated with 9 and 26 periods, respectively, the green Cloud boundary moves faster than the red Cloud boundary, which is the average of the 52-day high and the 52-day low. It is the same principle with moving averages. Shorter moving averages are more sensitive and faster than longer moving averages.
There are two ways to identify the overall trend using the Cloud. First, the trend is up when prices are above the Cloud, down when prices are below the Cloud and flat when prices are in the Cloud. Second, the uptrend is strengthened when the Leading Span A (green cloud line) is rising and above the Leading Span B (red cloud line). This situation produces a green Cloud. Conversely, a downtrend is reinforced when the Leading Span A (green cloud line) is falling and below the Leading Span B (red cloud line). This situation produces a red Cloud. Because the Cloud is shifted forward 26 days, it also provides a glimpse of future support or resistance.
Chart 2 shows IBM with a focus on the uptrend and the Cloud. First, notice that IBM was in an uptrend from June to January as it traded above the Cloud. Second, notice how the Cloud offered support in July, early October and early November. Third, notice how the Cloud provides a glimpse of future resistance. Remember, the entire Cloud is shifted forward 26 days. This means it is plotted 26 days ahead of the last price point to indicate future support or resistance.
Chart 3 shows Boeing (BA) with a focus on the downtrend and the cloud. The trend changed when Boeing broke below Cloud support in June. The Cloud changed from green to red when the Leading Span A (green) moved below the Leading Span B (red) in July. The cloud break represented the first trend change signal, while the color change represented the second trend change signal. Notice how the Cloud then acted as resistance in August and January.
Trend and Signals
Price, the Conversion Line and the Base Line are used to identify faster, and more frequent, signals. It is important to remember that bullish signals are reinforced when prices are above the cloud and the cloud is green. Bearish signals are reinforced when prices are below the cloud and the cloud is red. In other words, bullish signals are preferred when the bigger trend is up (prices above green cloud), while bearish signals are preferred when the bigger trend is down (prices are below red cloud). This is the essence of trading in the direction of the bigger trend. Signals that are counter to the existing trend are deemed weaker. Short-term bullish signals within a long-term downtrend and short-term bearish signals within a long-term uptrend are less robust.
Conversion-Base Line Signals
Chart 4 shows Kimberly Clark (KMB) producing two bullish signals within an uptrend. First, the trend was up because the stock was trading above the Cloud and the Cloud was green. The Conversion Line dipped below the Base Line for a few days in late June to enable the setup. A bullish crossover signal was triggered when the Conversion Line moved back above the Base Line in July. The second signal occurred as the stock moved towards Cloud support. The Conversion Line moved below the Base Line in September to enable the setup. Another bullish crossover signal was triggered when the Conversion Line moved back above the Base Line in October. Sometimes it is hard to determine exact Conversion Line and Base Line levels on the price chart. For reference, these numbers are displayed in the upper left hand corner of each chart. As of the January 8 close, the Conversion Line was 62.62 (blue) and the Base Line was 63.71 (red).
Chart 5 shows AT
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Price Crossovers using Moving Averages
Moving averages can also be used to generate signals with simple price crossovers. A bullish signal is generated when prices move above the moving average. A bearish signal is generated when prices move below the moving average. Price crossovers can be combined to trade within the bigger trend. The longer moving average sets the tone for the bigger trend and the shorter moving average is used to generate the signals. One would look for bullish price crosses only when prices are already above the longer moving average. This would be trading in harmony with the bigger trend. For example, if price is above the 200-day moving average, chartists would only focus on signals when price moves above the 50-day moving average. Obviously, a move below the 50-day moving average would precede such a signal, but such bearish crosses would be ignored because the bigger trend is up. A bearish cross would simply suggest a pullback within a bigger uptrend. A cross back above the 50-day moving average would signal an upturn in prices and continuation of the bigger uptrend.
The next chart shows Emerson Electric (EMR) with the 50-day EMA and 200-day EMA. The stock moved above and held above the 200-day moving average in August. There were dips below the 50-day EMA in early November and again in early February. Prices quickly moved back above the 50-day EMA to provide bullish signals (green arrows) in harmony with the bigger uptrend. MACD(1,50,1) is shown in the indicator window to confirm price crosses above or below the 50-day EMA. The 1-day EMA equals the closing price. MACD(1,50,1) is positive when the close is above the 50-day EMA and negative when the close is below the 50-day EMA.
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This means they both move in the same direction. The world was in an inflationary environment from the 1970's to the late 1990's. These are the key intermarket relationships in a inflationary environment:
A POSITIVE relationship between bonds and stocks
An INVERSE relationship between interest rates and stocks
Bonds usually change direction ahead of stocks
An INVERSE relationship between commodities and bonds
A POSITIVE relationship between commodities and interest rates
A POSITIVE relationship between stocks and commodities
Commodities usually change direction after stocks
An INVERSE relationship between the US Dollar and commodities
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Line charts are also used when open, high and low data points are not available. Sometimes only closing data are available for certain indices, thinly traded stocks and intraday prices.
Switching back and forth may cause confusion and undermine the focus of your analysis.
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Technicians, technical analysts and chartists use charts to analyze a wide array of securities and forecast future price movements.
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Form 10-K~ SEC Filings Explained
A Form 10-K is an annual report required by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), that gives a comprehensive summary of a public company's performance. Although similarly named, the annual report on Form 10-K is distinct from the often glossy "annual report to shareholders," which a company must send to its shareholders when it holds an annual meeting to elect directors (though some companies combine the annual report and the 10-K into one document). The 10-K includes information such as company history, organizational structure, executive compensation, equity, subsidiaries, and audited financial statements, among other information.
Companies with more than $10 million in assets and a class of equity securities that is held by more than 500 owners must file annual and other periodic reports, regardless of whether the securities are publicly or privately traded. Up until March 16, 2009, smaller companies could use Form 10-KSB. If a shareholder requests a company’s Form 10-K, the company must provide a copy. In addition, most large companies must disclose on Form 10-K whether the company makes its periodic and current reports available, free of charge, on its website. Form 10-K, as well as other SEC filings may be searched at theEDGAR database on the SEC's website.
In addition to the 10-K, which is filed annually, a company is also required to file quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. Information for the final quarter of a firm'sfiscal year is included in the annual 10-K, so only three 10-Q filings are made each year. In the period between these filings, and in case of a significant event, such as a CEO departing or bankruptcy, a Form 8-K must be filed in order to provide up to date information.
The name of the Form 10-K comes from the CFR (Code of Federal Regulations) designation of the form pursuant to sections 13 and 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 as amended.
Related Forms
Unlike the 10-K filed annually, other forms serve related purposes, but have different schedules. Form 10-Q, much briefer, is filed after each of the three quarters that do not have a 10-K filing. Form 8-K covers special material events that occur between 10-K and 10-Q filings.
A substantial number of firms filed their 10-K as a Form 10-K405 during the late 1990s and early 2000s (decade). A 10-K405 is a 10-K where the Regulation S-K Item 405 box on the cover page is checked. Due to confusion in its application, the 10-K405 was eliminated in 2002.
Filing Deadlines
Historically, Form 10-K had to be filed with the SEC within 90 days after the end of the company's fiscal year. However, in September 2002, the SEC approved a Final Rule that changed the deadlines to 75 days for Form 10-K for "accelerated filers"; meaning issuers that have a public float of at least $75 million, that have been subject to the Exchange Act's reporting requirements for at least 12 calendar months, that previously have filed at least one annual report, and that are not eligible to file their quarterly and annual reports on Forms 10-QSB and 10-KSB. These shortened deadlines were to be phased in over a three-year period, however in 2004 the SEC postponed the three-year phase in by one year. In December 2005, the SEC created a third category of "large accelerated filers," accelerated filers with a public float of over $700 million. As of December 27, 2005, the deadline for filing for large accelerated filers was still 75 days, however beginning with the fiscal year ending on or after December 15, 2006, the deadline will be 60 days. For other accelerated filers the deadline will remain at 75 days and for non-accelerated filers the deadline will remain at 90 days. For further reading, see the Final Rules [1] section of the SEC's website, referencing Rule 33-8644.
Parts
Every annual report contains 4 parts and 15 schedules. They are
PART I
ITEM 1. Description of Business
ITEM 1A. Risk Factor
ITEM 1B. Unresolved Staff Comments
ITEM 2. Description of Properties
ITEM 3. Legal Proceedings
ITEM 4. Mine Safety Disclosures
PART II
ITEM 5. Market for Registrant’s Common Equity, Related Stockholder Matters and Issuer Purchases of Equity Securities
ITEM 6. Selected Financial Data
ITEM 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations
ITEM 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
ITEM 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data
ITEM 9. Changes in and Disagreements With Accountants on Accounting and Financial Disclosure
ITEM 9A(T). Controls and Procedures
ITEM 9B. Other Information
PART III
ITEM 10. Directors, Executive Officers and Corporate Governance
ITEM 11. Executive Compensation
ITEM 12. Security Ownership of Certain Beneficial Owners and Management and Related Stockholder Matters
ITEM 13. Certain Relationships and Related Transactions, and Director Independence
ITEM 14. Principal Accounting Fees and Services
PART IV
ITEM 15. Exhibits, Financial Statement Schedules Signatures
Part 1
Item 1 - Business
This describes the business of the company: who and what the company does, what subsidiaries it owns, and what markets it operates in. It may also include recent events, competition, regulations, and labor issues. (Some industries are heavily regulated, have complex labor requirements, which have significant effects on the business.) Other topics in this section may include special operating costs, seasonal factors, or insurance matters.
Item 1A - Risk Factors
Here, the company lays out anything that could go wrong, likely external effects, possible future failures to meet obligations, and other risks disclosed to adequately warn investors and potential investors.
[Item 2 - Properties
This section lays out the significant properties, physical assets, of the company. This only includes physical types of property, not intellectual or intangible property.
Item 3 - Legal Proceedings
Here, the company discloses any significant pending law suit or other legal proceeding. References to these proceedings could also be disclosed in the Risks section or other parts of the report.
Item 4 - Mine Safety Disclosures
This section requires some companies to provide information about mine safety violations or other regulatory matters.
Item 5 - Market
Gives high's and low's of stock, in a simple statement. Market for Registrant's Common Equity, related stockholder matters and issuer purchases of equity securities.
Item 6 - Consolidated Financial Data
In this section Financial Data showing consolidated records for the legal entity as well as subsidiary companies.
Item 7 - Management's Discussion and Analysis
Here, management discusses the operations of the company in detail by usually comparing the current period versus prior period. These comparisons provide a reader an overview of the operational issues of what causes such increases or decreases in the business.
Forward Looking Statements
Forward-looking statement is the disclaimer that projections as to future performance are not guaranteed, and things could go otherwise.
Item 8 - Financial Statements
1. Independent Auditor's Report 2. Consolidated Statements of Operation 3. Consolidated Balance Sheets 4. other accounting reports and notes.
Here, also, is the going concern opinion. This is the opinion of the auditor as to the viability of the company. Look for "unqualified opinion" expressed by auditor. This means the auditor had no hesitations or reservations about the state of the company, and the opinion is without any qualifications (unconditional).
Five percent ownership
Five percent ownership refers to companies or individuals who hold at least 5% of the total value of the stock of a public company. They usually are founders of the company or large mutual fund companies, and because of how much stock they own, they usually have access to the board of directors of the company and hold significant sway over the company.
Five percent owners must also file Schedule 13d with the SEC.
Put another way, the consumer staples sector outperformed the consumer discretionary sector. Also notice that this ratio peaked ahead of the S
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BEARISH DELIBERATION
The Bearish Deliberation Pattern is a derivative of the Bearish Three White Soldiers Pattern. This pattern also shows a weakness similar to the Bearish Advance Block Pattern since it becomes weaker in a short period of time. However here the weakness occurs all at once on the third day. The small third body of the pattern shows that the rally is losing strength and a reversal is possible.
Recognition Criteria:
1. Market is characterized by uptrend.
2. We see long white bodies in the first and second days.
3. The second day has a higher close than the first day.
4. Then the third day opens near the second day's close.
5. The third day is typically a short white candlestick, a spinning top or a star that gaps above the second day.
Explanation:
The Bearish Deliberation Pattern appears after a sustained upward move and is suggestive of the fact that the rally is losing strength and a reversal is possible. The formation is a proof that the bulls’ strength is at least temporarily exhausted.
Important Factors:
The last small white candlestick may show a gap away from the long white body, thus becoming a star, or it can be riding on the shoulder of the long white real body.
The Bearish Deliberation Pattern is not normally a top reversal pattern but it has potential to precede a meaningful price decline. This pattern is more important at higher price levels. It must be used to liquidate long positions but it is yet too early for short positions.
A confirmation on fourth day is required to confirm that the uptrend has reversed. This may be in the form of a black candlestick, a large gap down or a lower close on the fourth day.
Many traders and investors believe that candlestick charts are easy to read, especially the relationship between the open and the close.
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Therefore, if the price returns to this level, there is likely to be an increase in supply, and hence resistance.
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Golden Cross
A Golden Cross is when a shorter term moving average crosses above a longer term moving average, for example a 20 day SMA crossing over a 50 day SMA. A golden cross indicates a bullish trend, especially when it is coupled with higher trading volume. As well as being a trend indicator, the longer term moving average becomes a support line as the price rises.
The chart below shows a 20/50 SMA Golden cross:
20 SMA is in Red
50 SMA is in Blue
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![]() ![]() ![]() UPDATE; 5-1-22 courtesy of charting /\ wit tweezer top calls /\ Tony @Montana_Trades Really good study sheet on Candlestick Patterns [-chart]pbs.twimg.com/media/FRn8188XMAAdZvk?format=jpg&name=small[/chart] ![]()
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