SPX Cycles System 60 min Cycles

[northam43]

SPX 60 min Data Sheet as of August 4th:

[northam43]

SPX 60 min Data Sheet as of July 18th:

[northam43]

Rcks - Yes, it's 1338.3, which we have obviously went below.

If the 1333.7 low holds, the Phase 2 target will be around 1353.53

Well the jobs report was bad and the market tanked. However, not as bad as I would have thought.

Actually so far this is the Phase 1 the SPX 60 min needed.

However, if the Weekly closes below 1330 level it could trigger a sell.

[RCKS]

northam does this 60 min Phase I have a target?

[RCKS]

It sure does. Although we may get a bit of correction before we make anymore highs or add to the price gain.
The 60 min has a double top look to it now, but we'll see....

[northam43]

The 60 min Phase 2 continues.

[northam43]

Rcks - The 60 min Phase 2 has set a new record at 37 hours. It looks like the 11:30 CT hour bar is going to be a Phase 1. The projected low will be 1322.6 but I'm looking for a low between 1330-1325. The Weekly should hit another high this week, I'm expecting we get to the 1370 level.

[northam43]

Rcks - I agree, this 60 min Phase 2 cycle will undoubtedly hold the record for the remainder of this Bull market.

[RCKS]

I see the 60 min has to go 2 more hrs to set a record northam... I hope it does, the new highs & total gain records are likely to stand for awhile.

[northam43]

SPX 60 min Data Sheet:

[northam43]

SPX 60 min Data Sheet:

Another record broken today.

# of highs, was 19 now is 20

[northam43]

SPX 60 min Data Sheet:

The cycle High - Low record of 39.11 has been exceeded today.

[northam43]

SPX 60 min Data Sheet:

[northam43]

Rcks - "in my opinion everyone has to choose the money management rules that suit them" That is exactly right. Just like you have used the components of the system that are useful for your trading style. That is the way it should be.

I am just demonstrating how I personally operate my system. You are demonstrating how flexable the system is in tailoring it to your needs. There is no need to cram down anyones throat how they should be trading. Everyone has different goals and ways of doing things, if any part of this system helps in reaching their goals, that is a success.

Thanks for your comments Rcks.

[RCKS]

I entered a position at the close today, not of course per your methods but I like the odds that we move up towards 1320.
I am not convinced that the current correction has run its full course though. My instincts tell me, post expiration, we will see one more trip this way but I would love to be wrong.

northam I've tried to stay out of the discussion going on around your system, in my opinion everyone has to choose the money management rules that suit them. I do worry however that in a swift downturn you could have to hold a very lengthy period to get back to even.
That said, I like your system and I have adapted it to what I'm comfortable with money management wise and that's how it should be IMO.
I think we get a 60 min Phase II tomorrow and I have bet on it.
We'll see how it works.
I might add you are showing great patience with this discussion of your methods.

[northam43]

Rcks - You were smart to wait. The 60 min today again broke records. This is a nasty 60 min Phase 1.

[northam43]

Trend1 - The SPX 60 min 1296.3 level is the UTL. The high today has been 1296.22

[TREND1]

*******This chart has RRC and Glen's system.
All we need now is
(1)A fork
(2)An e wave or s wave
(3) and finally northam
(4) and any one else who has a system..
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=63969214
05_SPX_60 Raff Regression Channel

[TREND1]

northam
How close are you to a SPX_60 buy ?
Thanks in advance.

[northam43]

Rcks - Yes price drop has a new record at 60.48, it blew away the 48.7 record. Also the # of hours to the low price went from 23 to 26 and the # of trading hours in Phase 1 went from 23 to 27.

The Daily hit it's target low today.

The Weekly target low is 1241.43

The Monthly price closed below the monthly UTL, the Monthly target low is 1144.16

[RCKS]

Price drop is a new record as well, no?
This drop is interesting in that it has very little fear, the VIX sits at 18.44. On the 23rd it went to 20 but the bottomline I worry that we have to get a spike in the VIX to end this slide and that could easily mean a test of 1250.
I want to see a much higher low (say 1274) and then a huge swing up but I may not get what I want.

[northam43]

SPX 60 min Phase 1 # of Trading Hours Record has been broken.

Old Record: 23 hours

[RCKS]

northam
I think along the same lines but I remain cautious here.

[northam43]

Rcks - I got my buy. SPX Cycles is now invested 100%.

As for the payroll numbers. Since the market looks forward, I would say a bad report has been priced in so if it's not as bad as everyone expects, the market could move up pretty fast. If it's the bad report everyone expects, I believe the downside has already been priced in.

[northam43]

Rcks - You have to go with whatever is best for you, it's your money. I myself, will follow my system. If the system breaks down, then I will need to find a solution.

Yes, it is looking like a Buy Signal may occur at the 12:30 CT hourly bar. It is still 15 minutes away, anything can happen.

[RCKS]

northam my 60 min chart is nearing a buy, the market seems to have found buyers. I would prefer to wait for tomorrows reaction to the Payroll #'s before I take the trade. I may leave some on the table but given how the week has gone I prefer to wait.

[northam43]

SPX 60 min Data Sheet:

[northam43]

SPX 60 min Data Sheet:

[northam43]

SPX 60 min Data Sheet:

[northam43]

SPX 60 min opened in the 5th hour of it's Phase 2.

The average 60 min Phase 2 is 8.6 trading hours. This Phase 2 is in the 5th hour. The record is 36 hours.

Average number of highs is 4.1, this Phase 2 has now put in 4 highs. The record is 19.

The average cycle High - Low difference is 18.5, this Phase 2 is currently at 18.42, the record is 39.11

Will this 60 min Phase 2 extend? If the Daily goes into a Phase 2, the 60 min Phase 2 will extend.

[northam43]

SPX 60 min Data Sheet:

[northam43]

SPX 60 min Data Sheet:

[northam43]

SPX 60 min Data Sheet:

[northam43]

SPX 60 min Data Sheet:

[northam43]

(Update)The SPX 60 min did confirm the Phase 1 at the 10:30 CT hourly bar. The low was 1330.67. It has now confirmed a Phase 2 at the 12:30 CT hourly bar. The projected high is 1349.28.

[northam43]

It looks like the SPX 60 min will confirm a Phase 1 at the 10:30 CT hourly bar. The projected low will be 1330.2 by the 14:30 CT hourly bar. Then the next SPX 60 min Phase 2 projected high would be 1348.58 (within 9 trading hours)

[northam43]

Rcks - Your probably right.

[RCKS]

northam where I think it could be helpful is during a period of market trending strongly, you won't get entries below 30 level but in that kind of market you are likely to be fully positioned already.

[northam43]

Looking at the 60 min data sheet each time I have bought using the RSI(6) 40 level, it really hasn't produced, to me it's been a wasted trade. So I'm going to stop using that level to trigger a buy and just use the 30 level. The 40 level was used when the Daily, Weekly & Monthly were all in Phase II.

[northam43]

The SPX 60 min RSI(7) just confirmed a crossing below the 30 line at the 14:30 CT hourly bar.

So in this case there was no advantage/disadvantage with the RSI(6).

[northam43]

At the 13:30 CT hourly bar the RSI(6) confirmed a crossing below the 30 line. However, the RSI(7) stayed above the 30 line.

Lets see how this works out.

[northam43]

SPX 60 min Data Sheet:

[JLS]

northam,

I know yours is not a day-trading system (except for entry and exit, where you do use intra-day, or day-trader, methods). So, I would say you are a day trader when it comes to getting into and out of a position, but that's where it stops and the rest of the time you are a trend, or swing, trader as you hang onto a position as long as the trend lasts. In my opinion, that's the way it should be done.

I like to read about what other traders do, especially professionals who actually get paid for what they do, so I just thought you would be interested in seeing that he used RSI(7), particularly when one doesn't see very many other people using anything other than default indicator settings.

In other words, it's encouraging to see that a professional also uses a short RSI(). It's a sort of pat on the back, don't you think.

[northam43]

JLS - My system is not a Day Trading system.

The 60 min RSI(6) is not being used as a sole indicator for making a trade in my system, it is used as a tool to trigger a trade.

My primary indicator is the EMA 11(high) also called the Upper Trend line (UTL) on the Daily, Weekly & Monthly

-If the Daily, Weekly & Monthly are all in Phase II, the 60 min RSI(6) 40 level is used to enter a position to continue to follow the upward trend.

-If the Daily, Weekly or Monthly are in a Phase I, the 60 min RSI(6) 30 level is used to enter positions in a down trend oversold condition for ST to MT gains

The Weekly EMA 11(high) is my primary tool I use for selling in a Bull Market, the Daily EMA 11 (high) would be used in a Bear market.

On my Daily, Weekly & Monthly charts I use the MACD (12,26,9) as a secondary indicator, along with PPO(3,8,4), RSI(14), and CCI(24). The PPO to me is an early warning indicator, it will normally make a bull/bear crossing before the EMA 3/8 or MACD. However, it is not an indicator by itself to make trading decisions. I would say my most important indicator is the Monthly EMA 3/8, in my system it determines the major direction of the market.

[JLS]

Mark Hodge, Head Trading Coach

at Rockwell Trading:

1) The default setting for RSI is typically 14. As a day trader, and to get better signals when using RSI for trends, I prefer a 7 period setting.

2) I do not use RSI as the sole indicator for making trading decisions. I personally find that a second indicator is important for determining market direction. At Rockwell Trading, our strategies rely on MACD and Bollinger Bands in addition to RSI. We find that these indicators are a nice compliment to RSI, especially when using this indicator to confirm a trend.

3) In my experience, this concept is most effective for day trading. As with any indicator or method, it’s important to do your own due diligence and test a concept before risking money on a trading idea that is new to you.

http://tinyurl.com/5rkbwm5

[northam43]

SPX 60 min Data Sheet:

[northam43]

SPX 60 min Data Sheet:

[northam43]

SPX 60 min Data Sheet:

[northam43]

SPX 60 min Data Sheet:

[northam43]

SPX 60 min Data Sheet:

New Phase I records made.