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On the SPX 60 min Data Sheet we are breaking Phase I records:
# of lows from 10 to currently 12
Low hours is currently at 17, so if we get another low hour that record will be broken.
60 min Phase I trading hours record is at 19, we currently are at 17 hours in this cycle. So three more hours in Phase I and that record will be broken
The last time the 60 min Phase I had more than 17 trading hours, the Daily started the 60 min cycle in Phase II, then went to Phase I, then back to Phase II. So if this does the same, that would mean this next Daily Phase I could be very short like only a day.
northam,
I believe that all good systems within the same Class will agree fairly closely, and the rest of the details and differences between systems really won't matter all that much.
By "Class" I mean systems which result in the same frequency of trades. For instance, intra-day trades which use 30-min or 60-min intervals are all of the same class. Systems which only use EOD data are of a different class. And there are many more examples.
Back to my point ... there is a good, time-tested, intra-day system which uses CCI and EMA 3/8 crosses on intra-day charts; and the system has been referred to as NERS (for Nocona's Early Retirement System; do a search and you will find it's rules, or I can give you links). As a minimum, going long on a fast chart would require a positive cross of CCI at -100. Confirmation was an EMA 3/8 cross. Or the roles of the two indicators could be reversed. Which one you put first really doesn't matter; but in its final form, the system required that there be a 3/8 cross, and whether it is an SMA or EMA is relatively minor at that point. So, my point is that any intra-day system that violates the 3/8 cross does so at its own peril -- odds are stacked against any system violating that cross.
For the day trader, daily trends are important, but not to the point that they are overemphasized. This means it is OK to enter an intra-day trade against the daily trend when the trader has good reason to believe that the daily trend is temporarily overbought or oversold. So I would say that from an intra-day point of view, Overbought or Oversold is more important than Daily Phase_I or Phase_II.
I see a problem with using intra-day RSI(6) without anything else to validate its use as an indicator. In a Down market RSI will typically stay below 50, and will cross 30 and 40 repeatedly. Anyone buying on those crosses is essentially hoping for a retrace; as would be normal in a Retrace system. To make a Retrace system work requires deep pockets because you have to average down. In an Upward trending market, RSI(6) crosses of 30 and 40 would be rare and probably are good entry points because they are not part of a trend, but are more of an Oversold indicator. My opinion is that a Down market will start to form before your system gets to a Phase_1 confirmation; therefore, RSI(6) can be a trap.
The 3/8 cross, as fast as it is, is still slower than RSI(6). That is true whether or not that 3/8 is SMA or EMA. Perhaps you may want to use 3/8 to confirm RSI(6). Or maybe, use RSI(?), where ? is longer than 6. Or, with QT you could look at using RSI(7,14), where the 14 is a trigger line parameter. Using that last suggestion will delay the trigger quite a bit, and you probably wouldn't like that. However, for what it's worth, RSI(7,14) triggered on 04/18, but it did not trigger yesterday; and it is triggered at this moment, but there is no 3/8 cross yet. Personally, I would wait for the 3/8 cross or even a 3/10 cross. That's because moving averages of 10 intervals are important indicators that many traders use -- so waiting for it means you follow their lead. Let the scouts be shot first.
JLS - The big difference was that April 18 the Daily was in Phase I, yesterday the Daily was in Phase II
I use to have a rule to not buy in a Daily Phase II, so if that rule was still in place the trade yesterday would not have been made.
However, I do believe this is a buying opportunity, if the Daily confirms a Phase I, it will be just that much better. It might not be as good for the "ALL IN" portfolio (unless of course you change the rules). Of course if the price drops below the Weekly UTL, then that position would be sold.
RCKS,
prior to yesterday's purchase using northam's system, the last purchase was on 04/18. I've looked at the differences on the 60-min charts between that day and yesterday -- I think they are significant. There is also a significant difference on the Daily chart.
For the 60-min charts:
1) On 04/18, SMA(3) crossed above SMA(8), and is the first short-term Bullish indicator. There was no SMA 3/8 Bullish cross yesterday.
2) On 04/15, the last trading day before 04/18, SMA(20) was tilting slightly upwards after several days of sloping significantly downward, indicating a possible reversal and the start of an up-trend. The opposite was true for yesterday; SMA(20) had flattened and was starting to tilt downward after several days of sloping significantly upward, indicating a possible reversal to a down-trend.
For the Daily charts:
1) The EMA(11) envelopes had been sloping downward for several days leading into 04/18, so some traders might consider buying the dip; the opposite is true for the days leading into yesterday -- some traders might consider taking profits.
Rcks - Looks like there is going to be a confirmation at the close. I also added a long position at 55.71
northam
I added to my long position here and though cautious that we will consolidate more before going much higher, we'll see what tomorrow brings.
Thanks for your posts today, all good info.
T1
I think every reactions sends a signal of strength and this one is weak given the loftiness of this move off of 1295. Now of course it could gain strength as the day progresses but we can not know the future can we?
Rcks - My current projected low on the 60 min is 1354.5, so far the low price has been 1355.11
Looking at all my previous buys the projected low was reached for all of them that required an RSI 30 level crossing. The one that was not reached was a 40 level crossing. So we could have put the low in for this 60 min cycle.
RCKS you wrote "which IMO is bullish"
A very interesting comment on the market. IMHO.
My RSI's are back below the 40 line, I think we will get a better low yet today. Just a hunch. Daily chart has hardly reacted to today's move, which IMO is bullish, this is a very weak reaction.
At the close of the 11:30 the RSI (7) was at 39.30 and the (6) was at 36.50
Rcks - At the close of the 10:30 the RSI(7) was over the 40 but the (6) was below. Right now the (7) is at 39.37 and the (6) is at 36.8
northam
I've gotten a cross up from both the RSI 6 & 7 above the 40 line. They both traded below the 30 line. Just curious if you it as well and whether you added here?
I am watching the SPX 60 min RSI(6) & RSI(7) entry level points. For this cycle, both the RSI(6) and (7) confirmed a crossing below the 40 line. So the next step will be to see if the RSI(6) gets us a good buy.
My concern is will the RSI(6) be to fast in confirming a Buy Alert or Buy Signal. There could be times when the RSI(6) makes a confirmation below/above the 40 and 30 lines and the RSI(7) doesn't. When those times occur, by using the RSI(6) will that put us in a profitable trade or will it put us in to soon?
We shall find the answer in due time.
The RSI(6) closed above the 40 line.
Rcks - If it is above the Daily UTL I use the 40 line. So right now the RSI(6) is below the 40 line so we may close with a confirmation. Then tomorrow we could get a buy signal.
It was due so to speak. For a buy it needs to get below the RSI 6/7 30 line because we are over half way through an avg Phase II on the Daily?
SPX 60 min Phase I confirmed at the 14:30 CT hour bar.
RSI(6) at 40.4
RSI(7) at 44.1
Its looking like it.
60 min UTL is 1364.71
Right now on the 14:30 CT hourly bar the price is below the UTL, so if it stays below the UTL we could get a Phase I in the next 40 minutes.
the stockcharts 60 min went back into Phase II, the time record is extending on yours. What is the UTL level for you on your hr chnage over?
Rcks - It hit the UTL on the 12:30CT hour bar. So the Phase II record breaking continues.
We also go a new record on the H-L.
northam on my 60 min chart I am about to get a Phase I, are you?
Looks like another record breaking day on the SPX 60 min cycle.
Here is Cobra's chart showing how the first trading day of the month has performed and though March ended a stretch of 7 straight up, April again was up.
A little support for a up Monday.
http://screencast.com/t/qbrqvSmfmnR
What's interesting about the records is that it is not a record for price gain. I actually think we will go through Monday and into Tues before we see a 60 min Phase I. I'm not saying that to make a bold prediction but Monday is the first trading day of month and is often a bullish day. Given what price has done since the FOMC it argues that Funds will come on board Monday and possibly make for a very bullish day.
We might even tag the Weekly target before we retreat a bit. Using Ted Burge/rimshot long term horizontal stuff 1338 should give us support and 1370 sits ahead, sometimes levels act as a spring board, we'll see on that though.
Rcks - Yes, the # of highs record went to 17 and the # of Phase II trading hours went to 31, and since we closed in Phase II, the record breaking may continue Monday.
Also of significants, the total Phase II trading hours for March was 88 hours and April finished at 103 hours.
northam you also have a new record for length as well? On Stockcharts I count 29 hrs at the moment for length of Phase II cycle. Records are cool.
New Record today on # of highs in a 60 min cycle.
This data is based on 38 60 min cycles.
On the 60 min chart the UTL is rapidly approaching price 1354.88 on stockcharts. We could easily get a weak PhaseI for a reset and a new Phase II which likely would be weak based on past patterns. Maybe not more then 8-10 pts from low.
Rcks - Yes, the lakes are all full and the dams are releasing water at record levels.
My house is on high ground, so it would take quite alot more to reach me.
As far as I know we had no loss of life due to the storms/tornado's here in Missouri.
However, in Alabama & Mississippi, I believe they are probably our poorest states, they had quite a few lives lost.
cool, I think we could be underway with the correction.
Hey, did you survive the flooding in your local?
The tornado yesterday in Tuscaloosa was something else.
With the current high on the SPX 60 min at 1358.60, I'm showing a projected low of 1343.3 on the next 60 min Phase I. The last time my projection was reached was the April 18th cycle and that was a buy cycle.
In looking at all the previous buys, the projected low was reached in all of them but one that was Mar 28th the proj low was 1304.5 and the actual low was 1305.3 so I missed that one by .8 of a point.
Rcks - You got it. So hopefully another buying opportunity will be close at hand.
northam
I think I am on to what you were pointing out to me and that is, the first 2 60 min cycles after you enter a new Phase II on the Daily are the strongest and they are avging about 33 points. The current 60 min sits at 26 points. But each successive 60 min Phase II cycle after the first 2 are much weaker until we get a Phase I on the Daily.
Yes, on the 60 min Data sheet, all the way to the right coumn heading says "Phases" under that is a "D" "W" & "M" which stands for Daily, Weekly & Monthly then go down on the "D" column to the last time the Daily was in a I & II which was the cycle starting March 22nd. Look at the H-L on that cycle which was 35.69 then the next cycle up was 32.59. Then go up the "D" column to the present I & II which started April 19th. The H-L was 33.49 and the current cycle H-L is 26.02
If you go back to previous 60 min Data sheets and look at the cycle starting Jan 31st. You will see the same pattern.
There is a Daily Phase column on the 60 min data sheet? or do you mean on a Daily Data sheet?
Rcks - Take a look at the Daily Phase Column. Look at the last time the Daily went from I to II and then look at the H-L Column, do ya see a pattern?
Also today the Daily came within one point of the high target.
northam
The 60 min is 17 hrs currently in your data, so we are extended again in this 60 min Phase II. The avg is 8.4 hrs I think if I read it right. So we have 2 back to back Phase II's that have been very lengthy, the prvious one I thought was more like 23 hrs, only interrupted by a 1 hr Phase I. My point being we seem due for a little longer Phase I and thinking out loud I wonder if we didn't put in a little top today near close?
Rcks - Sorry, I'll post the 60 min Data sheet today.
As for records. No new records have been set.
I'm starting to feel real good about the 60 min data now.
northam you haven't done a 60 min report in a few days, did the 60 min cycle one back set any records?
I would love for tomorrow sometime the market giving us a 60 min entry?
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