SPX Cycle System Weekly Cycle

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SPX Weekly Phase 1 confirmed (8/5/11)

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SPX Weekly Data Sheets:

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SPX WEEKLY CONFIRMED PHASE 2 (07/01/11) FOR THE WEEK STARTING (06/27/11):

Today the SPX Weekly Phase 2(Bull) is confirmed. The average Weekly Phase 2 lasts 11.27 Trading Weeks. The average Bull market Phase 2 lasts 11.68 trading weeks. The target for this Phase 2 is 1400.40 by September 9th. The Weekly Phase 2 has not hit the target high for the last 2 cycles.

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SPX Weekly very close to a Phase 2:

The SPX Weekly UTL is at 1322.43

The high today thus far is 1321.19, so we are 1.24 points from a Phase 2 confirmation.

The SPX 60 min Phase 2 is extremely overdue for a Phase 1. It would be nice to get a 60 min Phase 1, then tomorrow or Tuesday the 1st or 5th of the month a surge across the Weekly UTL.

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SPX Weekly Data Sheets:

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SPX WEEKLY CONFIRMED PHASE 1 (06/10/11):

Today the SPX Weekly Phase 1(Bear) is confirmed. The average Weekly Phase 1 lasts 5.86 Trading Weeks. The average Bull market Phase 1 lasts 4.32 trading weeks. The target for this Phase 1 is 1241.43 by July 8th.

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SPX Weekly price opened the week below the UTL. If it remains below the UTL until Friday close of market, a new Weekly Phase 1 will be confirmed.

If a Weekly Phase 1 is confirmed. The projected low will be, 1241.43 by July 8th.

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SPX Weekly Data Sheets:

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SPX WEEKLY CONFIRMED PHASE 2 (05/31/11):

Today the SPX Weekly Phase 2(Bull) is confirmed. The average Weekly Phase 2 lasts 11.81 Trading Weeks. The average Bull market Phase 2 lasts 12.28 trading weeks. The target for this Phase 2 is 1454.11 by August 19th.

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SPX Weekly Data Sheets:

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SPX WEEKLY CONFIRMED PHASE 1 (05/23/11):

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Does the Weekly Phase 2 continue? That is the big question for today. It will be answered either by a Phase 1 confirmation at the close of the market today or, the SPX hits the 1340.3 level which would then continue the Phase 2 for another week.

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SPX Weekly price opened today below the Weekly Upper Trend Line (UTL).

What does this mean?

Since today is the 1st day of the trading week it is very possible that the Weekly could confirm a Phase 1.

For a Weekly Phase 1 to be confirmed the SPX price must open the week below the Weekly UTL and remain below the Weekly UTL until the close of the market on the last day of that same week.

The Weekly UTL price is currently at 1340.3 so if that price level is touched before the close of market on Friday. The Weekly Phase 2 would continue. However, if that price is not reached before the market closes on Friday then a Weekly Phase 1 will be confirmed.

What is a Weekly Phase 1? The Weekly Phase 1 is the down trend Phase of a Weekly SPX Cycle. During the Weekly Phase 1 the SPX price will trend downward until the Weekly low price is obtained, I don't know what that low price will be, however, using averages based on previous cycles, I can make an educated guess at what a projected low may be. My projection is not met to be precise, however most of the time I believe it will be in the ball park. After the low is obtained the Weekly then starts climbing towards the UTL. Normally when it crosses above the UTL, it then goes into the up trend phase which I call the Phase 2.

If your a long term trader and you want to make very few trades per year, using the Weekly cycle at the beginning of a confirmed Bull market may be the answer. The average Weekly Phase 1 lasts 6.01 weeks and the average Phase 2 lasts 9.88 weeks.

Buying and Selling using the SPX Weekly Cycle:

The average Weekly Phase 1 has 3.1 lows, so that means that the low price on a Weekly Phase 1 is normally made within the 3rd week of the Phase 1 cycle. So buying or adding a position in the 2nd or 3rd week of a Weekly Phase 1 will most like be good entry points, of course sometimes the Weekly Phase 1 will put in the low during the 1st week, if it's in the beginning of a Bull market, it might be good to enter or add a long position during the 1st week. By using the projected low as a gauge, you can know if your getting a good price.

As for selling, in the beginning of a Bull market, I would just be accumulating positions until I reached 100% invested. At 100% invested I would then sell off my most profitable position when the Weekly went below the Weekly UTL and then buy back during the next Weekly Phase 1, I would coninue to do that over and over until the Monthly price dropped below the Monthly UTL, then I would sell all profitable positions.

The average Monthly Phase 2 lasts 18 months. So during that 18 months there could be 5 Weekly Phase 1 cycles.

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SPX Weekly Data Sheets:

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The SPX Weekly price high currently this week is 1341.29

The Weekly UTL price is 1340.43

So the Weekly Phase 2 continues into it's 9th week

The average for a weekly phase 2 is 12.35 weeks

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The SPX Weekly price has opened below the Weekly UTL.

The current Weekly UTL price is 1340.43

Why am I mentioning this?

With the price opening the week below the UTL, if the price remains below the UTL the entire trading week, a new Weekly Phase I could be confirmed.

If the SPX price hits the 1340.43 level this week the weekly Phase II would then continue for atleast another week.

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SPX Weekly opened above the UTL. So the Weekly remains in Phase II for the 8th week. The average weekly Phase II is 12.3 weeks.

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Weekly Chart Update:

This update pretty much says the same thing the last update said. However, with the pullback yesterday and now we are pretty much back to where we started. However, now the Daily Phase II has been reset, so it could push the Weekly higher, with little resistance.

[TREND1]

07_SPX_W Raff Regression Channel

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Weekly Chart Update:

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SPX Weekly Chart:

The Weekly Chart is looking more bullish.

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SPX Weekly Data Sheets:

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SPX Weekly Phase II new high today.

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SPX Weekly Phase II new high today.

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SPX Weekly Chart:

The reason I am posting this chart is I want to bring attention to the MACD. If you notice the MACD is on the bearish side and has been trending downward now for the past 9 weeks, however, the price is trending upward. The reason for this is the MACD is above the zero line so the pressure on the price is to the upside. This is when the shorts had better be real careful, it's almost like a typhoon(hurricane), they got slammed when it first came over and now they are in the eye of the storm, when the back side of this Bull market bears down the shorts will get HAMMERED.

This weekly Phase II could be setting up to last awhile and the upside could be very rewarding.

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SPX Weekly Data Sheets:

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Since the Weekly price is above the UTL. The Weekly is now locked in Phase II for the rest of this week. This is now the 5th trading week of this weekly Phase II. The target price remains at 1387.75 by June 17th which is about 8 weeks away. At this point I would say the target price is likely, however, I don't think it will wait until June 17th. So I'd say the target will be earlier than later.

Since the Daily went into Phase II today, that should strengthen the Weekly Phase II.

However, the Monthly Phase II is getting a bit toppy and a pull back to the Monthly UTL maybe in the cards in the near future. The current Monthly UTL price is 1256.93, so the Monthly could put the Weekly in a Phase I in the near future.

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SPX WEEKLY CYCLE ALERT:

A strong possibility that the SPX Weekly price will hit the Weekly UTL at the open, if that happens the Weekly will remain in Phase II for another week.