SPX Weekly price opened today below the Weekly Upper Trend Line (UTL).
What does this mean?
Since today is the 1st day of the trading week it is very possible that the Weekly could confirm a Phase 1.
For a Weekly Phase 1 to be confirmed the SPX price must open the week below the Weekly UTL and remain below the Weekly UTL until the close of the market on the last day of that same week.
The Weekly UTL price is currently at 1340.3 so if that price level is touched before the close of market on Friday. The Weekly Phase 2 would continue. However, if that price is not reached before the market closes on Friday then a Weekly Phase 1 will be confirmed.
What is a Weekly Phase 1? The Weekly Phase 1 is the down trend Phase of a Weekly SPX Cycle. During the Weekly Phase 1 the SPX price will trend downward until the Weekly low price is obtained, I don't know what that low price will be, however, using averages based on previous cycles, I can make an educated guess at what a projected low may be. My projection is not met to be precise, however most of the time I believe it will be in the ball park. After the low is obtained the Weekly then starts climbing towards the UTL. Normally when it crosses above the UTL, it then goes into the up trend phase which I call the Phase 2.
If your a long term trader and you want to make very few trades per year, using the Weekly cycle at the beginning of a confirmed Bull market may be the answer. The average Weekly Phase 1 lasts 6.01 weeks and the average Phase 2 lasts 9.88 weeks.
Buying and Selling using the SPX Weekly Cycle:
The average Weekly Phase 1 has 3.1 lows, so that means that the low price on a Weekly Phase 1 is normally made within the 3rd week of the Phase 1 cycle. So buying or adding a position in the 2nd or 3rd week of a Weekly Phase 1 will most like be good entry points, of course sometimes the Weekly Phase 1 will put in the low during the 1st week, if it's in the beginning of a Bull market, it might be good to enter or add a long position during the 1st week. By using the projected low as a gauge, you can know if your getting a good price.
As for selling, in the beginning of a Bull market, I would just be accumulating positions until I reached 100% invested. At 100% invested I would then sell off my most profitable position when the Weekly went below the Weekly UTL and then buy back during the next Weekly Phase 1, I would coninue to do that over and over until the Monthly price dropped below the Monthly UTL, then I would sell all profitable positions.
The average Monthly Phase 2 lasts 18 months. So during that 18 months there could be 5 Weekly Phase 1 cycles.
JMHO, Lindy
"Buy low, Sell high, stay with your system. If your system breaks fix it."
