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Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | July 20, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 16, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 285k, up 30.2k.
As expected, gold bugs staged a breakout this week but were unable to hang on to it. On Tuesday, gold broke out to a new intraday high of $2,475. The momentum continued Wednesday with another intraday high of $2,488 but only to then reverse lower. By Friday, the metal had given back 0.9 percent for the week to $2,399/ounce.
Prior to the breakout, gold essentially went sideways for three months. On April 12th, it hit a new intraday high of $2,449 before selling off a tad. This was eclipsed on May 20th, as the yellow metal ticked $2,454 before once again coming under pressure. All along, bids showed up at $2,300, a breach of which will have shifted momentum to the bears.
Even now, this week’s action probably does not boost bulls’ confidence. A test of the 50-day at $2,369 probably lies ahead; if this is lost, $2,300 is a must-save for the bulls.
Non-commercials have been aggressively accumulating net longs in gold futures, and it does not take long for them to begin unwinding those.
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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | July 20, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 23991 and is trading up about 15% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. This price action here in July is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 24884 intraday and is still trading above that high of 24067.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during May. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 23961 and overhead resistance forming above at 24232. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 15th at 24884, which was up 6 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 24884 to 23957. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 24884. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 24260 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 23341 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 19950 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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Gold Faces Bearish Retracement, Testing Key Support Levels
By: Bruce Powers | July 19, 2024
• Gold continues bearish retracement, testing key support at 2,389 with potential further decline to 61.8% retracement at 2,366.
Gold continued its bearish retracement on Friday, falling to a low of 2,394 before finding minor support. It is well on its way to test support around the 50% retracement at 2,389. Notice that the 2,389-price area was where resistance was encountered at a minor swing high in early-June. It also stalled the recent ascent for several days in early-July before gold ran up to a new record high of 2,484 on Monday.
Downward Momentum Accelerates
Given the acceleration in the pullback from the new record high gold may continue to fall and test lower potential support levels if the 50% retracement area doesn’t hold. Lower down is the convergence of several indicators that have converged around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 2,366.
Both the 20-Day MA (purple) and 50-Day MA (orange) are near the 61.8% retracement zone. Currently, the 20-Day line is marking potential support at 2,374 and the 50-Day line is at 2,358. There is also an internal uptrend line close by that should be watched as well.
New High Breakout Fails to Hold
A pullback following a new record high is not that surprising given that the rally that preceded the breakout began down around 2,294 in late-June. By the time gold broke out to a new record high it was further into the trend and bullish momentum could not be sustained. Now that the upside follow through has ended downward pressure in the price of gold has increased. The reversal from this week’s high sets up a bearish weekly candlestick pattern.
Weekly Bearish Shooting Star on Deck
On the weekly chart gold is about to end with a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern. It shows buyers in charge earlier in the week but by the end of the week, sellers were in charge. In other words, a failed breakout occurred, and sentiment has turned short-term bearish. Therefore, it may not be resolved quickly, and gold may need some time before it is ready to attempt a new record high again.
A decline below this week’s low of 2,394 will trigger a weekly bearish reversal. This is another reason why the lower price zone target is at greater risk of being reached. Nonetheless, the two prior corrections on a weekly basis lasted either two or three weeks.
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Gold $GLD - Going back to my Micro-Chart view...
By: Sahara | July 19, 2024
• ... $GOLD $GLD - Going back to my Micro-Chart view
See how it had a series of Bear 'Wedges' that went into play & tripped the arrowed targets. Now looking for spprt off a Lwr-Parellel where we now have a Bull 'Wedge'...
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Gold Falls Further After Reaching New Record High
By: Bruce Powers | July 18, 2024
• After hitting a record high of $2,484, gold pulls back, heading towards test of key support levels before launching towards near-term upside target of $2,495.
Gold is attempting to retrace part of its recent advance following a new record high of 2,484 reached yesterday. Today, gold has pulled back further, dropping below Wednesday’s low of 2,451 to reach a low of 2,440 for the day. Also, today’s low is below the prior record high of 2,450. However, trading continues near the lows of the day and a new daily low could be reached by today’s close.
Initial Potential Support Levels
There are several initial price levels to watch for possible support to show up. The first is at the April 12 swing high of 2,431. A little lower is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2,411, followed by the 50% retracement at 2,389. Somewhat more weight is given to the 2,389-price level as it is also a match with a prior interim swing high from June 7. A pullback to test that price zone as support may provide a nice setup for a bullish continuation. It is above both the 20- and 50-Day MAs, at 2,370 and 2,357, respectively. Also, it is above all the trendlines.
A Long-Term Target Reached at 2,480
This week’s new record high of 2,484 completed a key long-term target for gold from a large rising ABCD pattern at 2,480. The AB leg of the pattern began at the swing low of 1,160 in August 2018. It led to a rally into the August 2020 swing high of 2,013. A similar advance in price began from the September 2022 swing low of 1,615 and ended this week.
Once there is symmetry in price, a potential pivot level has been identified. It looks like that was the case here given the bearish reaction following Wednesday’s high of 2,484. Nonetheless, following the completion of a bearish retracement, gold is anticipated to continue to trend higher towards upside targets.
Recent Bearish Retracement Points to 2,495 Target
There is Fibonacci confluence area with several price levels identified around 2,487. A little further up from there is a relatively near-term target at 2,495. That price level will complete a 127.2% extended retracement of the most recent decline that began from the May 20 peak. A greater than 100% or 127.2% retracement completes at the 2,495-price level.
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Gold Reaches New High at 2,484, Faces Resistance
By: Bruce Powers | July 17, 2024
• After hitting a record 2,484, gold faces resistance with a potential bearish pattern, yet retains bullish outlook above key support levels.
Gold continued to advance to a new trend high of 2,484 on Wednesday before encountering resistance. Sellers took back control from that high and have set gold up with a potential bearish shooting star candlestick pattern. Underlying strength remains however, as Wednesday is on track to complete a narrow range day near the highs of Tuesday’s new record high wide range breakout day. Strength indicated by the breakout was confirmed by Tuesday’s close above the previous record high of 2,450.
High Completes ABCD Pattern Begun in 2018
There are a couple things to notice about today’s new record high. First, a target zone was hit on today’s advance at 2,480. That is a long-term target from a large ascending ABCD pattern that began from the August 2018 swing low. It began the AB leg of the advance. The second leg up, the CD portion, began from the September 2022 swing low. A potential pivot price is indicated once the price change in the second leg up matches the first. That is what is being seen so far.
It is confirmed by a short-term trendline connecting swing highs beginning with April 12. The high today was essentially a match with potential resistance indicated by the line. The ABCD pattern target is an initial target from the pattern. As gold continues to rise, extended targets will play a role. A 127.2% extended target for the ABCD is at 2,715.
Lower Support Starts with 2,411
If the bearish retracement from Wednesday’s high continues, it is triggered on a decline below today’s low of 2,451. A 38.2% Fibonacci retracement completes at 2,411, while this week’s low is at 2,401. Either marks an area of potential interest from buyers. Nevertheless, the 50% retracement level of 2,389 is confirmed by a prior interim swing high from early-June.
The 50-Day MA is a key trend support zone for gold. It is at 2,366 currently. Therefore, the bullish outlook is retained in gold if it stays above the 50-Day MA. Notice that recently the purple 20-Day MA crossed above the 50-Day line, proving another sign of strength for the precious metal.
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$GLD No sleep 'til $238
By: TrendSpider | July 17, 2024
• $GLD No sleep 'til $238.
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Gold Hits New Record High Amid Bullish Momentum
By: Bruce Powers | July 16, 2024
• Following a bullish crossover, gold hit a new record high of 2,467, with higher targets now in focus.
Gold breaks out to a new record high following a bullish crossover of the 20-Day MA above the 50-Day MA yesterday. The previous record high was 2,450, which was reached on May 20. Today, Tuesday, gold has reached a new record high of 2,467, at the time of this writing, and it continues to trade near the highs of the day.
New Record High of 2,467
An initial new high target for gold at 2,462 was already exceeded today, putting higher targets in scope. That pivot was a 161.8% extended retracement of the decline that begun from the August 2011 swing high. It still may act as an area of resistance as the high today is not much beyond the 2,462-price level. Watch to see where today’s close completes. Above 2,462 is more likely to lead quickly to an advance to higher price targets, rather than a daily close below that price level.
Higher Targets Start with 2,480
There are several higher targets shown on the chart from around 2,480 to 2,494. The lower price level for the range is a long-term target for a large rising ABCD pattern. It began from the July 2018 swing low of 1,160. An AB leg for the pattern ended at 2,031 in August 2020, while the beginning of the CD leg was at 1,615 in September 2022.
At the top of the price range is 2,494. That price level completes a 127.2% extended retracement of the most recent decline from the 2,450-trend high. There are two other price levels within the identified price range as well, giving further credence to the price range. Arguably, since the 127.2% target is based on a near-term pattern, it has a good chance of being reached within the current expansion.
Monthly Bullish Signal Supports Higher Prices
Higher prices are supported by recent price action. A monthly bull signal in gold was triggered earlier this month on a rise above June’s high of 2,388. Given that July is halfway complete, gold has a chance to end the month strong, in the upper third of the month’s price range. Also, a weekly bullish continuation signal triggered this week and gold is on track to end the week strong, in the upper third of the week’s trading range. If it does so, it has a good chance of seeing strong upward momentum heading into next week.
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Gold $GLD - Bear in mind they are interim targets on a bigger picture...
By: Sahara | July 15, 2024
• ... $GOLD $GLD - Bear in mind they are interim targets on a bigger picture...
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$GLD bullish technical charts as Fed Chairman Powell speaks at Economic Club of Washington as markets look to confirm September rate cut
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | July 13, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 9, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 254.8k, up 13.2k.
Gold is itching to break out. This week, it rose one percent to $2,421/ounce.
The metal has essentially gone sideways the past three months. On April 12th, gold hit a new intraday high of $2,449 before selling off a tad. On May 20th, a new high was created as the yellow metal ticked $2,454. All along, bids showed up at $2,300.
Amidst this, non-commercials are the most net long gold futures since March 2022.
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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | July 13, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 24207 and is trading up about 16% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. This price action here in July is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 24304 intraday and is still trading above that high of 24067.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during May. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 24015.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 8th at 24304, which was up 5 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 24304 to 23560. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of July 8th reaching 24304 has exceeded the previous high of 23826 made back during the week of June 17th.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 2 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 19950 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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Gold Bullish Momentum Retained
By: Bruce Powers | July 12, 2024
• Gold forms a bullish doji hammer inside day, signaling potential breakout above 2,425 with higher targets at 2,462 and 2,480.
Gold is on track to complete bullish doji hammer inside day today with a high of 2,418 at the time of this writing. Trading continues near the highs of the day heading towards Friday’s close. Today’s price action is constructive for the advance as it follows a strong candle yesterday with a close near the high of the day. The 20-Day MA is about to confirm strength as it has converged with the 50-Day MA and is about to cross above it. In addition, both moving averages have converged with a trendline, and they are about to cross above it. Each would provide an additional sign of improving demand.
Potential for Bull Breakout of Inside Day
The inside day sets up a potential upside breakout on a rally above today’s high. Thursday’s high was around 2,425 and will be the next key level as a breakout above it triggers a continuation of the rising trend. The hammer characteristics of the inside day show continued bullish demand. Moreover, today’s price action is largely in the upper half of yesterday’s trading range. That shows strength relative to Thursday’s price range. In addition, Thursday’s closing price of 2,415 is the third highest daily close for gold on record, another sign of strength.
Above 2,425 Signals Trend Continuation
A sustained breakout above this week’s high of 2,425 triggers a continuation of the bull trend. Gold must then rise above the 2,431-swing high from April 12. It then heads towards the record high of 2,450. Given the variety of bullish indications lately, it has a good chance of breaking above 2,431.
Eventual New High Targets of 2,462 and 2,480
The initial two new high price targets are at 2,462 and 2,480. A long-term extended 161.8% retracement target from the decline off the August 2011 high identifies the first price level. That price level is followed by the completion of a long-term rising ABCD pattern at 2,480. Those price levels are followed by a Fibonacci confluence zone around 2,489. That is where two or more Fibonacci levels congregate.
Regardless of the above bullish scenario, sometimes markets don’t make it so easy. If that happens with gold, we may see resistance leading to a retracement prior to a breakout to new record highs. Just an alternative scenario to be aware of in case it occurs.
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Gold $GLD - Latest #PPI Data has us Tapping and piercing the 4th Fib/Cluster to touch the Lwr-Parallel. Where we are starting to turn...
By: Sahara | July 12, 2024
• $GOLD $GLD - Latest
#PPI Data has us Tapping and piercing the 4th Fib/Cluster to touch the Lwr-Parallel.
Where we are starting to turn...
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Gold Rally Eyes Record High After Bullish Breakout
By: Bruce Powers | July 11, 2024
• Gold surged to 2,425 today, maintaining bullish momentum. A strong close could push prices towards the 2,450-record high, with the next potential resistance at 2,431.
Gold rallied today and triggered an extension of the rising trend to reach a high of 2,425. Momentum has since died down intraday, but buyers remain in control with trading continuing near the highs of the day at the time of this writing. The rally completed a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 2,415. Although there are signs of resistance around the 79.6% level the pullback has been mild so far.
If gold can close strong today, in the upper quarter of the day’s trading range, it has a chance to continue to rally into the end of this week. Also, watch the relative closing price. There has been only one day that gold closed above today’s high and that was on May 20, the day gold hit its current record high of 2,450. A strong close today sets the stage for gold to recapture the record high and keep rising.
Strong Upward Momentum May Challenge Record High
The next higher potential resistance area is around the April 12 swing high at 2,431. There is also an 88.6% Fibonacci retracement level at the same price level adding to its potential short-term significance. Since the bull breakout last week gold has maintained strength above prior resistance areas defined by the downtrend line, top trend channel line and the 50-Day MA (orange).
Today’s rally further confirms improving demand in the precious metal. The question is, can upward momentum be sustained enough to take gold above the 2,450-record high or will it first encounter resistance that leads to a retracement or consolidation phase first.
20-Day MA Bull Crossover in Process
Further confirming strength of the uptrend will be the 20-Day MA (purple). It is more sensitive to changes in price since it uses a shorter period to calculate, and it is about to cross back above the 50-Day line since being below it from June 17. This will be another piece of evidence indicating that strength in demand is improving. Moreover, the 20-Day and 50-Day lines have come together more recently as gold consolidated and volatility died now. Now that a bullish breakout is in play the bull trend should be ready to reassert itself. This will increase the distance between the two moving averages as momentum improves and the uptrend extends.
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$GLD Gold making a run for it on the weekly!
By: TrendSpider | July 11, 2024
• Gold making a run for it on the weekly! $GLD
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$GDX $500+ coming
U.S. inflation report that suggests the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sooner rather than later. $GLD $SLV #Silver #Gold
Gold Consolidates, Poised for Potential Breakout
By: Bruce Powers | July 10, 2024
• Gold’s consolidation above the 50-Day MA indicates bullish sentiment, with key pivots and long-term targets suggesting potential for further gains.
Gold continued to consolidate on Wednesday with a minor sign of strength as it rose above Tuesday’s high of 2,371. Nevertheless, it remains within a relatively tight trading range between resistance of 2,393 and support around 2,349. Until there is a decisive move outside of that range, trading will remain choppy.
Bullish sentiment remains dominant however as the consolidation pattern is developing above the 50-Day MA and other lines that recently had been areas of resistance. This reflects the improving underlying strength in demand for gold.
May End with an Inside Weed
Since the Wednesday trading session is almost over, it looks like gold could finish this week with an inside week. If so, it would set up a potential bullish breakout of an inside week for next week. Of course, volatility following the release of the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) tomorrow could trigger a breakout of the current price range. If bullish signs continue thereafter then gold has a chance to keep rising. Although there hasn’t yet been bullish follow through, last week gold closed at 2,393,
above the interim daily swing high of 2,388. That showed strength that is waiting for further confirmation.
Last Week’s High of 2,393 is Key Pivot
Last week’s high of 2,393 presents the next key pivot as a rally above there puts gold on track to challenge May 20 record high of 2,450. The steadier the climb towards that high the better the chance that it can continue to rise on improving momentum. An extended retracement of the August 2011 decline presents the first long-term Fibonacci target at 2,462. It is followed by another long-term target at 2,480.
That is the completion of a measured move or rising ABCD pattern that begins from the August 2018 swing low of 1,160. The subsequent advance from the September 2022 swing low matches the first upswing from the 2018 low at 2,480. Long-term targets deserve to be watched to see how price behaves around the levels. They present points of decision where resistance may be seen, or a breakout could occur from the potential resistance area.
Second Breakout of Monthly on Deck
Gold should see an upsurge in momentum upon a rise above last week’s high as it will trigger the second breakout above a monthly high as well. June’s high of 2,388 was exceeded earlier and a second breakout may have clearer success.
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Gold Consolidates on 50-Day MA Support, Eyes New Highs
By: Bruce Powers | July 9, 2024
• Gold consolidates on 50-Day MA support, setting the stage for a potential breakout towards new highs, maintaining a bullish outlook despite recent sideways movement.
Gold is now in its third day of sideways consolidation sitting on support from the 50-Day MA at 2,342. Price support of the range is at today’s low of 2,349. It remains in a constructive position following a bullish breakout from a descending channel last week. Further, a breakout of the 20-Day MA, 50-Day MA, and another trendline also triggered last week. Price action since the breakout has been testing previous resistance as support, which is typically seen in the progression of an uptrend.
50-Day MA, Key Trend Support
The 50-Day line is a good nearby benchmark to use for signs of strength or weakness. Notice that it has recently converged (close) with the top channel trendline so that they each mark a similar price support zone. Next, the bulls will be watching for an acceleration to the upside away from the 50-Day line. That may set the stage for a challenge to the recent record highs seen in gold.
Last Week Closed Strong
A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement was already completed last week at 2,388. A decisive advance above last week’s high will trigger a bullish continuation of the trend short-term uptrend, which is contained within a larger rising price structure. Last week a weekly bullish reversal triggered, and gold confirmed strength from the breakout with a weekly close at a seven-week high. Further, the week ended strong, with gold closing near the highs for the week.
This week we might see gold continue to consolidate and stay within the confines of last week’s price range (2,318 to 2,393), and end with an inside week. Such price action would retain the bullish outlook for gold and set the stage for renewed enthusiasm from buyers as they seek to see gold rise to new record highs. Following an upside breakout above 2,393 gold would next be heading up towards the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 2,415. Next up would come a challenge to the record high of 2,450 that was reached in May.
Monthly Bull Breakout Set to Run
It is also significant to note that last month’s high was 2,388 and it marked resistance for the month of June. June ended with an inside month doji pattern. An attempt at a monthly upside breakout triggered last week during the advance as the high was 2,393. Once that high was hit resistance was seen as sellers took over.
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Jack Chan: Gold Price Exclusive Update
By: Jack Chan | July 6, 2024
Our proprietary cycle indicator is UP.
To public readers of our updates, our cycle indicator is one of the most effective timing tool for traders and investors. It is not perfect, because periodically the market can be more volatile and can result in short term whipsaws. But overall, the cycle indicator provides us with a clear direction how we should be speculating.
Investors
Accumulate positions during an up cycle and hold for the long term.
Traders
Enter the market at cycle bottoms and exit at cycle tops for short term profits.
GLD is on short term buy signal.
GDX is on short term buy signal.
XGD.to is on short term buy signal.
GDXJ is on short term buy signal.
DUST – a 200% leveraged inverse ETF.
We were stopped out at break even.
Analysis
Current data favors overall lower gold prices.
Our ratio is on a new buy signal.
Trend is DOWN for USD.
Trend is UP for gold stocks.
Trend is UP for gold.
GDX is now testing major resistance.
A potential inverted head & shoulder bottom on our ratio.
Summary
Gold sector cycle is up.
Trend is up for gold and gold stocks, down for the USD.
Condition to buy was not met this week, shall wait for a pullback next week.
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Over the last 20 years, $GLD has had its highest win rate in the month of July, green 65% of the time
By: TrendSpider | July 5, 2024
• This timing is looking GOLDEN.
Over the last 20 years, $GLD has had its highest win rate in the month of July, green 65% of the time.
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$GLD Gold gearing up for another leg?
By: TrendSpider | July 5, 2024
• Gold gearing up for another leg? $GLD
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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 6, 2024
The NY Gold Futures has been in an uptrend for the past 3 days closing above the previous session's high by 0.97%. The broader rally has unfolded over the past 20 days. Currently, the market is trading in a neutral position on our indicators but it is trading strongly higher up some 2.81% from the previous session low. Our projected target for closing resistance for the next session stands at 24262, we need to close above that target to imply a further advance. Failure to even exceed this intraday warns that the upward momentum is starting to decline. Moreover, a lower opening and a penetration of today's low of 23560 with a closing beneath this level would suggest today's high will stand temporarily.
Our Stochastics are all still pointing upward while our internal momentum models have also remained in a bullish posture.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during May. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Clearly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 23737.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 20th at 24542, which was up 14 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. We have been generally trading up for the past 4 weeks from the low of the week of June 3rd, which has been a move of 4.222%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of May 20th has exceeded the previous high of 24488 made back during the week of April 8th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 19964 made the week of February 12th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 19950 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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Gold Surges to Six-Week High, Targets New Records
By: Bruce Powers | July 5, 2024
• Gold continues to rise, reaching a six-week high of 2,393, with bullish signals across all time frames suggesting a push towards 2,450.
Gold followed through on the upside Friday with a new high of 2,393, at the time of this writing. It continues to show strength as trading continues near the highs of the day. Bullish sentiment improved as gold reached a six-week high and is on track to close above that 2,388 price level.
Nevertheless, it is on track to end Friday’s session at a seven-week weekly closing high. There were only two previous weeks that ended higher. The closest was at 2,392 during the week of April 15. Since the session has not yet ended, it is still possible that Friday’s may end with only one week having a higher weekly close.
Strong Upward Momentum
Given this week’s strong bullish price action, following a choppy five weeks, gold is sitting in a bullish position to challenge the most recent trend high of 2,450. Whether it does so quickly or not remains to be seen. It is off to a good start so far. Not only can bullish developments be seen on both the daily and weekly charts, but the monthly period is also supportive of a bullish continuation of the trend. June’s high was 2,388, and as noted above, it was busted through today. Subsequently, if gold ends today above 2,388, a monthly bullish signal will have been confirmed.
Monthly Bull Breakout Triggered
Monthly patterns provide stronger signals. Gold is now aligned with bullish indications on each time frame. The daily, weekly, and monthly charts are all bullish. This alignment should increase the chance for gold to encounter the 2,450-record high and it will likely break out above it. Gold is coming up fast and it may keep rising with strong momentum. Potential new record high targets start with 2,462, followed by 2,480. However, there is a cluster of multiple Fibonacci targets beginning around 2,488. A 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the most recent bearish retracement completes at 2,494.
Remains in Consolidation Zone
Regardless of the above bullish indications, gold remains within a consolidation pattern. It could therefore continue to experience choppy price action for a while longer. However, so far, given the strong upward momentum exhibited this week, it may not give the bulls a chance to participate without aggressive action as it sharply heads towards highs.
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Gold Tight Range Hints at Upcoming Volatility Surge
By: Bruce Powers | July 2, 2024
• Gold's recent sideways action and contracting volatility within a symmetrical triangle pattern suggest an impending breakout, either bullish or bearish.
Additional sideways price action dominated gold trading on Tuesday, as it has for the past several days. Gold has been trading within a relatively tight range with a low of 2,318 and a high of 2,340. Today, it is on track to complete an inside day as trading has occurred within the price range of Monday. Those three days are contained within a larger seven-day sideways price range with the same high price but a lower low of 2,294.
A tightening price range is representative of contracting volatility, which can also be seen with the two moving averages on the chart as they have converged recently. The purple 20-Day MA and the orange 50-Day MA have been tracking close to each other since the shorter 20-Day crossed below the 50-Day MA on June 17.
Tightening Range Designs Symmetrical Triangle
In addition, a symmetrical triangle pattern has been added to the chart (dark blue). It is also a good representation of contracting volatility. If gold stays within the boundaries of the triangle, consolidation will continue. But once a breakout either up or town triggers, volatility should expand. What follows a period of contracting volatility is typically a clear pickup in momentum.
Multiple Tests of Resistance
For each of the past few days, resistance was retested around the 50-Day line and price was rejected to the downside each time. In addition, a top rising trend channel line was also successfully tested as resistance as it has converged with the 50-Day line. Further, recent price action has also recognized resistance around the downtrend line. In summary, there are two trendlines and two moving averages that identify resistance near the highs of the past seven trading days.
Since gold is in a downtrend price structure, seeing resistance at lines that used to represent support is bearish and supportive of an eventual continuation lower for gold. However, a signal is needed as a bullish reversal remains a possibility as well. Sometimes, when a chart pattern seems clear, but momentum and volatility have contracted, a swing in the alternate direction occurs. Nevertheless, it is best to be prepared for either a continuation lower or a bullish reversal and higher prices.
Breakout – Up or Down?
A breakdown is indicated on a drop below the lower triangle line and then more clearly on a drop below the recent swing low at 2,294. There are then a couple interim price targets, but the primary downside target is 2,211 to 2,195. Meanwhile, bullish momentum should accelerate following a rise above 2,340 and more so on a move above last week’s high of 2,369.
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Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | June 29, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 25, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 246.2k, up 3.1k.
Once again, $2,300 drew bids, with Wednesday touching $2,305 intraday. By the end of the week, gold was up 0.4 percent for the week to $2,340/ounce.
Gold bugs have defended $2,300 for just over two months now. The metal came under pressure after recording a fresh high of $2,449 on April 12th. On May 20th, a new high of $2,454 was hit. Soon after, sellers appeared, but they have not been able to push the metal under $2,300.
From the bulls’ perspective, they have successfully held $2,300, but have been unable to use it as a launching pad for a new rally. The 50-day ($2,352) is beginning to roll over, with gold closing under the average in 14 out of the last 15 sessions.
Gold has come a long way since last October when it ticked $1,824 (was $1,996 this February) and cannot afford to lose $2,300.
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Gold Struggles Below Key Moving Averages
By: Bruce Powers | June 28, 2024
• Gold struggled against resistance at 2,340 and declined to 2,319, forming a bearish shooting star pattern for Friday..
Gold challenged resistance around the 50-Day MA earlier in Friday’s trading session but failed to retain the advance. Resistance was seen at 2.34 and was followed by a decline. As the end of the week approaches gold continues to trade near the lows of the day. At the time of this writing the low was 2,319. It is on track to close the day with a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern.
Resistance Seen Again at 20-Day MA
Heading into next week, unless gold can get back above this week’s high of 2,340, it is pointing to lower prices. The 20-Day MA crossed below the 50-Day MA three weeks ago signaling a weakening trend. Further, all this week the 50-Day MA acted as an area of resistance and today’s downside reaction further confirms that resistance. Both moving averages are angled down.
The May 3 swing high at 2,277 is a key price level as it forms the uptrend price structure of higher swing lows and higher swing highs. A decline below that level, followed by a daily close below it, will confirm a reversal of the bull trend.
Risk of Breakdown from Consolidation Top
The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is at 2,262 and there may be some support seen around that price area. However, a drop below 2,277 triggers a breakdown of an approximate 8-Week consolidation top. That could lead to an acceleration in the price of gold to the downside towards the next lower target zone around the prior swing high of 2,212. Keep in mind that there is also an uptrend line around the support zone.
`Weekly Bullish Signal Above 2,340
Regardless of the bearish indication of today’s failed attempt to go higher, nothing is clear until there are further signals either confirming weakness or showing strength. A rally above today’s high of 2,340 would show strength and put gold back above the 50-Day MA, which is currently at 2,337. This week is set to close with a weekly high of 2,340 and a low of 2,294. So, a breakout above today’s high will also trigger a weekly bullish reversal. The two-week high is then at 2,369, representing the next potential weekly resistance zone.
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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 29, 2024
This market made a new high today after the past 2 trading days. The market opened higher and closed higher. The immediate trading pattern in this market has exceeded the previous session's high intraday reaching 23506. Therefore, this market has rallied over the past 15 trading sessions and there is a potential to move up for another 2 daysNevertheless, this market remains well above all seven of our intial support levels. Nonetheless, the market remains neutral on our system indicators.
This market has not closed above the previous cyclical high of 24067. Obviously, it is pushing against this resistance level.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during May. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 23373 and overhead resistance forming above at 23497. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time. An opening below this level in the next session will imply a decline is unfolding.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of June 3rd at 23042, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of May 20th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and yet it recovered to close above the previous week's close of 23312. We are still trading neutral on the Weekly Momentum Indicators and this is a warning that initial support has been breached. This strongly implies we should pay close attention now to the Weekly Bearish Reversals. If we begin to elect Weekly Bearish Reversals, then we are dealing with a more sustainable near-term correction. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of June 17th reaching 23826 failed to exceed the previous high of 24542 made back during the week of May 20th. That rally amounted to only four weeks. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 23042. Additional support is to be found at 23263. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 19950 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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Gold $GLD - Lngr-term view. Qtrly Candle holding the Dotted Channel-Line...
By: Sahara | June 27, 2024
• $GOLD $GLD - Lngr-term view.
Qtrly Candle holding the Dotted Channel-Line...
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Gold Triggers Weekly Breakdown
By: Bruce Powers | June 26, 2024
• Gold's bearish flag and shooting star patterns suggest a likely drop below the recent swing low of 2,287, with key support levels at risk.
Gold triggered a bearish flag on the daily chart today and a shooting star on the weekly chart. The bear trend patterns point to a likely drop to below the recent swing low at 2,287. Previous support around the prior swing low from May 3 will likely follow and is at risk of being broken to the downside. At the time of this writing gold has reached a high of 2,324 today and a low of 2,294. But trading continues near the lows of the day and the daily low may be lower before today’s close.
Initial Downside Target at 2,262
Today’s decline also opens the possibility that gold reaches the downside target of 2,262. Falling to that price level will complete a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the uptrend begun from the February swing low. Interestingly, the 20-Week MA aligns with support of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. However, a more significant target zone lies lower near the uptrend line.
That line is the bottom of a rising parallel trend channel. Gold is in the process of failing to hold strength near resistance at the top of the rising channel. Once resistance is seen at one side of the channel, a reversal back to the other side becomes possible. Therefore, if a drop below 2,277 occurs, a lower support zone starting around 2,211 and including the price area of the uptrend line is next on the agenda. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement completes there.
Bearish Moving Average Crossover Provided a Clue
The recent bearish crossover of the 20-Day MA falling below the 50-Day further confirms weakness and the bear trend. Moreover, a weekly bearish reversal triggered today, and it is supportive of a deeper retracement to test lower support levels. Unless there is a relatively rapid recovery to the upside, gold is facing at least one to two weeks of down to sideways price action. Either way, a rally above the 50-Day line at 2,340 would be the first sign of strength. However, a rise above the recent interim swing high of 2,369 would be needed for a bullish reversal signal at this point.
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Gold Tests Trendline Support Amid Bearish Flag Pattern
By: Bruce Powers | June 25, 2024
• Gold tests trendline support at 2,315, forming a potential bear flag pattern, with critical levels indicating possible further declines if breached.
Gold further rolls out a potential bear flag pattern with another test of trendline support at the day’s low of 2,315. The bearish setup follows a sharp one-day decline on June 7 that reached a low of 2,287. That drop began a second wave down for the correction. A fifth wave down is possible if the low price on June 7 is broken to the downside. An initial breakdown signal will occur a little below today’s low, which is almost touching the line. However, there is also a weekly price level to watch.
Last Week’s Bearish Candle is a Risk
Last week ended with a bearish weekly candlestick pattern in gold. Therefore, a weekly bearish signal is triggered on a drop below last week’s low of 2,307. Since it would be a weekly signal, the possibility of a subsequent drop below 2,287 greatly increases if that happens. Nevertheless, the most recent swing low is at 2,277 from May 3. That swing low is part of the price structure for the rising trend. If it fails to hold as support on a deeper pullback, a drop below it triggers the breakdown from a topping formation.
First Lower Target is 2,252
The first target below the May 3 swing low starts around 2,252. That price would complete a falling ABCD pattern and is shown on the chart as the end of wave 5 of the decline. Regardless, there is a potentially more significant price zone a little lower starting from around 2,211. Notice that an internal uptrend line converges with the price zone as well. That line is parallel to the top internal trend channel line. It acted as resistance during each of the two failed attempts to break out and continue to rally into higher prices.
Bull Breakout on Break Above 2,369
Alternatively, an upside breakout is not indicated until there is a rise above last week’s high of 2,369. Until then, if gold does not break down, it may further chop around within the developing rising flag consolidation pattern. Once that happens the prior swing high around 2,388 is next on the agenda followed by an attempt to continue into new record highs for gold.
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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 22, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 23312 and is trading up about 12% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Currently, this market has been rising for 7 months going into June suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 23351 and support forming below at 23202. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 20th at 24542, which was up 14 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of June 3rd, which has been a move of 3.402%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of May 20th has been important Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 24488 made back during the week of April 8th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of January 29th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 19964 made the week of February 12th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 7 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 18 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 19950 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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Gold Bearish Sentiment Grows Amid Failed Breakout
By: Bruce Powers | June 21, 2024
• Gold’s failed breakout above the 50-Day MA puts it at risk of further declines, testing key support levels at 2,307.
Gold is at risk of failing yesterday’s bullish breakout above the 50-Day MA and downtrend line. Friday’s price action is set to end with an outside day. And, at the time of this writing gold continues to trade bearish, below yesterday’s low of 2,328, and below three trendlines plus the 50-Day MA. Each has now failed to hold as support during today’s pullback. This is not bullish behavior and puts recent lows at risk of being tested as support again, if not broken.
Bearish Weekly and Daily Signal Below 2,307
This week’ slow of 2,307 can be seen as a price level with some significance. Being a weekly low, a drop below it will signal a bearish continuation in the weekly time frame. Larger time frame patterns tend to influence lower time frame patterns. That is the fractal nature of the financial markets. Therefore, the higher time frame can take priority relative to a trader’s time horizon.
Daily Bear Flag
A drop below 2,307 on the weekly chart can be seen on the daily chart as a decline below the short rising trendline across support of recent daily lows. On the daily time frame the price action of the past two weeks has taken the form of a small bear flag. So, a drop below last week’s low would provide a bearish signal for both time frames, the daily and the weekly. It should also be noted that this week is on track to end with a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern. Although it is not occurring at the top of a trend it still provides a sign of short-term bearish sentiment.
Rally Above 2,370 Needed for the Bulls
There is not much set up yet on the chart for bullish indications other than a breakout above today’s high of 2,370. Since the first breakout attempt is already showing weakness, a continuation of the consolidation phase may continue before much follow through occurs, either up or down. Nonetheless, if natural gas breaks out above this week’s high of 2,369 next week, it could continue to see an acceleration in price towards the most recent record high of 2,450.
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Gold $GLD - Dirty RailRoad-Lines' being formed. Unless it can rebound from the 12-20/MA's (Unlikely)
By: Sahara | June 21, 2024
• $GOLD $GLD - Latest
Dirty RailRoad-Lines' being formed. Unless it can rebound from the 12-20/MA's (Unlikely).
Otherwise target is my Alt-iv & that 150/MA...
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Gold Bullish Breakout Signals Potential Upside Rally
By: Bruce Powers | June 20, 2024
• Gold breaks out above 50-Day MA and downtrend line, signaling potential for further gains and bullish continuation.
Gold broke out to the upside on Thursday, reclaiming the 50-Day MA above 2,343 and triggering a breakout of the downtrend line. A subsequent daily close above each will confirm strength of the breakout. Also, watch where the day ends within the day’s range of 2,328 and 2,365. Moreover, today’s close will likely exceed the top trend channel line, which has marked an area of support or resistance since a bullish breakout above the line first triggered in early-April. Further, a bullish weekly reversal was triggered above last week’s high of 2,342.
Long-Term Bullish
The larger developing pattern in gold is the bullish breakout of a rising trend channel following a multi-year base breakout in early-March. The longer the base the greater the potential bullish move that follows. Gold gave a preview during the rally starting from the February 15 swing low that accelerated following the February 29 breakout of a symmetrical triangle trend continuation pattern. The advance from the swing low to the 2,450-record high from a month ago was 465.80 points or 23.5%. For reference, the four previous upswings were 17.9% and 28.8%, respectively.
Second Breakout May Hold
A second channel breakout attempt triggered today. Sometimes, a second breakout entry can prove to be more promising. Moreover, if the 2,287-swing low continues to hold as support then gold will have completed a relatively shallow retracement. Notice that the lows of recent price action remained near the top channel line, also a sign of strength. But it needed today’s rally first to determine whether a low has been reached. The area around the line retained support.
Retracement Should Be Complete
If today’s advance is followed by further strengthening, the retracement is likely complete. A rise above the most recent swing high of 2,388 will further confirm strength and a bullish reversal following the correction. It is the next more significant price level that needs to be exceeded. There are several initial targets heading into new record highs. For now, the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the recent retracement will be the most likely near-term initial upside target.
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Gold Volatility Looms as Pennant Pattern Develops
By: Bruce Powers | June 19, 2024
• With gold trading in a narrow range, a breakout above 2,335 or below 2,296 could signal the next significant move.
Gold traded in a narrow range on Wednesday with a high of 2,335 and a low of 2,324. The high took the price of gold above the top boundary line of a potential bearish pennant pattern (small symmetrical triangle) briefly before a pullback into the consolidation range. Although the 20-Day was also exceeded briefly, resistance was seen at a top rising trend channel line. The top of the pattern at 2,342 is marked by resistance of the 50-Day MA (2,344) and the downtrend line.
Bullish Above 2,335
A decisive breakout above 2,335 will provide the next sign of strength that may give gold a chance to keep rising. Last week’s high of 2,388 is also critical as a move above it would trigger a weekly breakout and a rise above the most recent interim daily swing high. Gold began an attempt to breakout from the rising parallel trend channel in early April, which eventually failed with the decline below the line on June 7. It has since traded below the line, putting it at risk of a deeper retracement than what has been seen currently. A second upside breakout of the channel has a chance to keep going if momentum can be maintained once triggered.
Bearish Below 2,296
The bearish pennant will trigger with a drop below its lower boundary line, but the recent minor low of 2,296 can be used as a clearer signal. Also, a drop below the three-week low of 2,287 will confirm the breakdown.
Possible Double Inside Week
Unless gold can rally above last week’s high of 2,342 before the end of this week, it is on track to complete the week as an inside week. As it stands now gold has an inside week setting up this week and an inside week last week. It shows price contraction, which is typically followed by a spike in volatility. Which direction it heads in will be signaled by a breakout of the pennant pattern. The pennant would indicate that a breakdown is more likely, however, that would change if support continued to hold and is followed by a bullish breakout instead.
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Bank of America $BAC remains bullish on silver, sees $35 an ounce by 2026 ( 1.5 years away) Jump of $6.00 per oz #Silver #Silversqueeze is coming $GLD
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | June 15, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 11, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 233.9k, down 3.4k.
Last Friday, after hugging the average for 10 consecutive sessions, gold sliced through the 50-day. This week, it remained under the average in all five sessions, with attempts to reclaim in on Wednesday unsuccessful. That said, the metal ($2,349/ounce) is not that far away from the average at $2,358, and there is room to rally on the daily. For this, defense of $2,300 is a must for gold bugs. Else, the weekly can take over.
Gold has come a long way since last October when it ticked $1,824 (was $1,996 this February). It came under pressure after it set a new high of $2,454 on May 20th.
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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 15, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 23491 and is trading up about 13% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Immediately, this market has been rising for 7 months going into June suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Clearly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 23373 and overhead resistance forming above at 23542. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 20th at 24542, which was up 14 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of June 3rd, which has been a move of 2.369%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of May 20th has been important Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 24488 made back during the week of April 8th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of January 29th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 19964 made the week of February 12th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 23263. Additional support is to be found at 23006. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 6 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 18 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 19950 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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Gold Faces Key Resistance at 50-Day MA
By: Bruce Powers | June 14, 2024
• Gold consolidates at 2,345, facing resistance and potential bearish indicators, with key support levels crucial for maintaining the current uptrend price structure.
Gold further consolidated on Friday, testing resistance around the 50-Day MA, which is currently at 2,345. The 20-Day MA converged with the 50-Day line today and marks the same price area. A bearish sign will be indicated if the 20-Day line crosses below the 50-Day. Gold is sandwiched between the moving averages at the top and last week’s low of 2,287 at the bottom of a five-day price range.
Resistance Zone from 2,345 to 2,350
Another price area to keep an eye on for resistance is a little above the 50-Day MA at 2,350. That price completes an initial target for a small rising ABCD pattern. And it is contained within last Friday’s wide price range, which by itself influences choppy price action. Last Friday’s high of 2,388 began with a bullish breakout but ended with a failed breakout and a bearish close. Therefore, given the current price patterns in gold, it looks like a decisive rally above 2,388 would be needed to sustain a bull reversal into new record highs. Otherwise, support remains at risk of being broken to the downside.
Weakness Likely Below 2,301
Weakness would next be indicated on a drop below today’s low of 2,301 and further confirmed on a decline below last week’s low of 2,287. Regardless, the recent swing low of 2,277 cannot be ignored. It defines the price structure of the uptrend and is a key price level to watch for support. If it is approached a third time it seems likely to give way to lower prices. Certainly, characteristics of the trend can change, but a drop below it would be considered bearish and provide a clearer sign that sellers were in charge.
Lower Pivots Start With 2,252
Downside pivots are at 2,252, 2,211, and 2,195. The lower price level takes on greater importance given its nearby neighbor, the uptrend line. Also, the trendline takes on greater significance since it would follow a successful test of resistance around the top line of a parallel trend channel most recently. Once price reverses from resistance in a chart pattern it tends to at least attempt if not reach the other side of the pattern. For gold that dynamic would be complete if it reaches the price area of the uptrend line.
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Gold Continues to See Pressure to The Upside
By: Christopher Lewis | June 14, 2024
• The gold market continues to see a lot of noise, as the G7 is now threatening Chinese banks that deal with Russian interests. Because of this, the world is waiting for a further escalation of geopolitical tensions.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
Gold rallied quite nicely during the early hours on Friday as the $2,300 level has offered a significant support level. That being said, I think we’ve got a situation where given enough time, we probably recover completely. And the shot higher on Friday was more or less based on the G7 threatening Chinese banks that they are going to cut them off from the financial system if they deal with Russia. The reality is we are already starting to see oil bought in Chinese yuan, Russian rubles, et cetera.
Because of this, I think this will eventually mean nothing. Furthermore, let’s not forget that the Russians are still selling oil to the EU via back channels, as well as natural gas. So, I think what’s going to end up happening is this will cool off. Now, it doesn’t necessarily mean the gold will cool off because there are plenty of geopolitical issues out there that could come into the situation and send gold even higher.
Quite frankly, we are in a strong uptrend and there’s no reason to think that changes anytime soon. So, with this, I like the idea of buying gold, but I also recognize that we need to hang on to the $2,280 level underneath. If we were to break down below there, then we could see a deeper correction, but right now it looks like the buyers most certainly will have the upper hand overall. I do believe that sooner or later we will try to get to the $2400 level above.
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Gold Faces Bearish Retracement, Key Support Levels in Focus
By: Bruce Powers | June 13, 2024
• Bearish signs increase for gold as it falls below key near-term levels, with support zones from 2,287 to 2,277 and potential targets around 2,252.
Gold triggered a bearish drop below yesterday’s 2,311 low today, thereby triggering an initial signal for a small bearish flag from the past few days. Resistance for the day was seen at 2,327, which was below yesterday’s high of 2,342. Sellers have been dominating price action since.
At the time of this writing gold looks like it will likely end Thursday’s trading session with a full red candle closing near the lows of the day. That will setup up gold for a continuation lower. However, confirmation of weakening will be needed as recent support may continue to stop the descent.
Bearish Continuation Below 2,287
There is a price support zone for gold from around last week’s low of 2,287 to the prior swing low at 2,277 from early May. Given recent bearish price behavior, including a drop below the 50-Day MA, the bearish rejection at resistance around the 50-Day line yesterday, and a bearish trend continuation signal given when gold fell below 2,315 (B), the risk of a deeper retracement is growing.
The bottom of the current support zone is at 2,277. Therefore, a decisive drop below that price level is needed for a clear bearish continuation signal. A decline below 2,287 will show weakening but not necessarily a breakdown that is sustainable as support may still be seen around the May swing low.
Lower Target Zone Approaches Trendline Support
The next lower target area is around 2,252. That is where a falling ABCD pattern completes. Both the AB leg of the decline and the CD leg will match the price change at that target. It will reflect price symmetry between the two swings. Once there is symmetry, the possibility of an important pivot is identified. Nevertheless, a decline below 2,252 will likely lead to a test of support at lower levels. Lower down is a price zone from roughly 2,211 to 2,195.
That area was previously the top of the trend and initiated a decisive breakout that propelled gold higher. Prior resistance areas tend to be subsequent support on a pullback, and that is what may occur with gold. If this lower price zone is approached the lower uptrend is another indicator to watch as it defines a lower parameter for a rising parallel trend channel.
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Gold & the Coming Correction?
By: Martin Armstrong | June 11, 2024
Gold made its high in May on the 20th with the Dow Jones. It did not peak precisely on the ECM date of May 7th, so that is good news. The highest weekly closing was that of May 13th. That suggests that we may only be looking at perhaps a 3-month correction into September, where we also have a Panic Cycle that is showing up in many markets. We have these insane leaders who are pushing us into World War III. Handing Ukraine a fleet of F16s but parking them in Poland and Romania is inviting Russia to PLEASE attack a NATO country so they can claim it was unprovoked to justify their taste for blood and to line their pockets with Russian assets.
A weekly closing below 2303 should signal that we are going to restest support contrary to what everyone thinks with the interest rates and inflation nonsense. The long-term prospects for gold have NOTHING to do with inflation. Gold will rally because of geopolitical instability. I am concerned that these warmongers are pushing every possible button to get Putin to respond before the election.
The major long-term support lies down at the 1985-2000 level.
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Gold Faces Critical Support Zone Amid Ongoing Selling Pressure
By: Bruce Powers | June 11, 2024
• Gold's support at 2,287 may hold, but resistance at 2,344 and a significant support zone around 2,195-2,215 suggest continued downtrend risk.
Gold has been holding a support zone for the past couple days that was hit on Friday with a low of 2,287. That price area is marked by both the 50% retracement and support of a top trend channel line. Although a higher bounce to test resistance around the 50-Day MA at 2,344 may occur, gold broke through that key moving average line and kept falling last week. This indicates selling pressure that may not yet have been fully relieved. Nonetheless, last week’s low could still turn into a bottom, unless gold drops below 2,287.
Rallies Head into Resistance
A rally into resistance will occur within a developing downtrend. Therefore, there continues to be a good chance that lower price targets are eventually tested during this correction. The initial lower target is the completion of a falling ABCD at 2,252. If last week’s low of 2,287 is broken to the downside, this next target comes on deck. But there is a more significant price target zone underneath there. It has greater significance because there are multiple indicators pointing to the same price area. That price zone is around the previous breakout area of 2,195. It is included with a price zone that begins around 2,215.
Weekly Bearish Pattern
An uptrend line provides the maximum likely retracement as it resides at the lower end of a rising parallel trend channel. Gold was rejected around resistance at the top of the channel with last Friday’s high of 2,388 (C). Also, the weekly chart ended last week with a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern. It had a top tail and closed near the lows of the week. A drop through last week’s low will trigger that bearish candle. Until then, it remains a possibility.
Bullish Reversal Not Seen Until 2,388 is Exceeded
Given the current price structure near the top of the trend, gold would not be clearly showing strength that may be sustainable until there is a decisive advance above last Friday’s 2,388 high. Until then, the developing downtrend rules. Another possibility is that last week’s low continues to hold and that gold eventually strengthens to provide a new bullish signal. Or it falls lower but quickly recovers to close above last week’s low.
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$GLD $2.5 Million OTM Put This is an unusual amount of premium for the GOLD ETF
By: Cheddar Flow | June 11, 2024
• $GLD $2.5M OTM Put
This is an unusual amount of premium for the GOLD ETF
*Above the Ask*
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