The only question for that guy is who does he consider the 'big boys'? Bill Gross of Pimco is the biggest of them all and he's out and all but saying to short the bond market. If you go back in time and look at what happened to the bond (treasuries, not notes) market after QE1 was over, they didn't top out until about 2 months later. The bond market is very technically driven. So, until you get a clear break of the uptrend, it's going up with or without QE until it doesn't.
But I think that guy has it wrong. Everything the Fed has done has been one large experiment. They are playing a very dangerous game here and all the hedge funds they scared out of stocks by screwing them on every decline has sent them packing into the commodity markets. So now they (the fed) have gained literally nothing of benefit by pushing up stocks because the average Main Street American is getting killed by the higher cost of living. They can't touch the traders in commodities because it's a world wide market.
So, oil will go up and up along with food until the fed gets the hell out of the way and lets ALL markets trade on their own. If that means the SPX falls to 900 or less, well, that's what it does. Time will heal all wounds, but at least they'll tell the accurate tale.
You see, what the fed has screwed up here is by forcing everyone into stocks by making savings worthless, they boxed themselves into having to lock down lending. If you try to get a cash-out refi now, you won't get it. The fed has put the breaks on banks doing that. Home equity is where all the money comes from to pay for high-ticket items like remodels and cars and on and on and without the average income American able to access that equity for cash, not refi of existing, the economy is dead. But for the fed, the second the public has access to that money, inflation will skyrocket making things ten times worse.
It seems to me and those that I read that know this stuff that the only way out of this quagmire they created for themselves (probably by being scared by Jim Cramer screaming at them on his TV show back in 2008) is to truly let the economy fall off the cliff, destroy true demand for commodities like food and oil, and then let the banks do what they do - LEND.
I don't see any other way. The bond market will spike up and rates will collapse, thus helping lending demand, and thus help truly ease the 'real' recovery down the road.
The longer this drags on, the more they are going to be forced into doing something like that.
AI
