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Hi Snoot,
finally some downside seems to happen.
Do you still see SPX going down to ~4100 and then up above 4700 before the large decline starts?
Thanks!
The Happy Family made gains on taking out the August high and is now down to WLSH (that's $EMW now on stockcharts) DJA, both just a tiny fraction from it, and RUT which hasn't taken out the Oct low yet. This setup is very typical for the family and if it plays out as typical we'll see a good drop before these take out the August high. I'm still hoping for RUT to take out the Oct low first.
There's head and shoulder formations on NYA,DJA,WLSH,IWM,MID,SOX and even SPXEW, just SPX,COMPQ and NDX do not.
I have some doubt that the drop targets for these will be reached though. My SPXEW chart below shows a drop just to the neckline.
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPXEW&p=60&st=2021-11-01&i=p26284544839&a=416690378&r=1688894822711&r=1688895129824&r=1688895369711
these have been a tough short tbh. NQ however is more volatile
ES target is 4340
mainly US markets
:D
Do u trade other assets or just the US indices?
U r one early bird to give an early signal lol. 14700 works with my books to, but probably after this eom/EOQ shenanigans first
NQ target now: ~14700
Today proved it a bit tough for being bearish, it actually stopped me out twice BE lmao, really thought it was gonna run, left the computer to come back to it as BE trade
I think a lower low is coming before july 4th, maybe they fakeout break above 15150 just to get smashed back down to 14720ish
Yes, and IMO the pullback is not finished yet - watching NQ 15177
That looks tough lol, but in july? The most bullish month of year… hmmm a little hard to believe, lets see how end of month june closes
The C will morph into a more complex I think. The chart to watch IMO is RUT.
I'm looking for RUT to take out the June 2022 low. (IWM below 160)
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=IWM&p=60&st=2021-11-01&i=p22209884227&a=1361692571&r=1687914599152&r=1687914700621
It almost tagged it,great call! The break today back above 14960/80 doesnt seem legit with it rejecting to even get to 15150.
Whats ur c leg target? That lower 4000 likely not gonna come yet anytime soon yet, they gotta break this trend hard. JK’s target reached 14850 on NQ futures
NQ traded the pullback and should now be ready for ~ 14850
Hi JK, Yes, that's my chart target. The yellow down (reverse) fork looks really good where it's at now.
Edit: I added green A and B and red a,b and c labels. Red a x 1.618 = 11750 target for c
So you expect COMPQ to hit ~11800 in 4 werks?
COMPQ,
Price took out that TL3 in my previous SPX chart, so now COMPQ has the same and I expect it needs to be breached as well.
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24COMPQ&p=30&st=2022-07-01&i=t4572972225c&a=282143477&r=1686844077070
SPX 30,
There's a TL3 (triple tag TL) shown, I'm thinking it will leave it until August to take that out.
The red oblong is my preferred target for 3 or 4 weeks out now.
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=8&dy=10&i=p98191908173&a=307755350&r=1686834085131&r=1686834162385&r=1686834405036
Resilient market, “feels” like alot of fomo going on, but only time will tell if this is all legit, breadth hasnt been too shabby with this rally
TZA position 26.92 in afterhours
Looks like we gap up above the August high and fulfill that obligation while at the same time show a negative divergence in RSI. This week is also triple witching and max pain is way below.
I think the market is very close to s turning point. Likely after fomc
CPI on Tuesday. SPX was 3 points from taking out the August high today (so far) My ideal scenario is making the 4326 or more by Monday close and see a hot CPI come in Tuesday. Then the Fed day on Wed
My thoughts on the market:
SPY took out last August high, but SPX didn't, when this happens SPX always follows through. I'm looking for a bit of a pull back Monday and then a new high later in the week with some negative divergence and SPX to take out the August high also.
Then down for a month below 390 then up for 6 weeks to another high before the big last drop.
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&i=p81064549921&a=350704571&r=1685737637896&r=1685737925927
shorting this market
with fed adding liquidity behind the scènes
is really dangerous
since each day as Elliot would say is totally different then the previous one
the put call ratio was tame the last few days
and there was no real happy family selling
traders still want an old school bear market
the bear market is over.
the fed killed it.
do not fight the fed especially when they doin QE
I've been sitting on a TZA position I just sold for a small gain to go with my last comment
QQQ is so extended already it's a difficult chart, however I have this IWM chart that I think has one more rally from here before going down. The debt bill will probably pass and today's down reset the indicators for another high (I think)
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=IWM&p=30&st=2022-07-01&i=p09621257268&a=434502557&r=1685548743326&r=1685548831994
Looks like we finally get some down - what is your take for the QQQs?
For NQ I see something like 14070 as a target.
Would love to see this play out by end of june me thinks.
Happy holidays
I'm still clinging to a drop before taking out the August HFTOM highs. If my work is correct price needs to exceed the yellow down fork ML now at 390 in below chart. For the HFTOM, 4 of the 8 indices I include have taken out the August high and have a large spread among them with IWM being the lowest and still has not taken out the June of last year low.
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&i=p81064549921&a=350704571&r=1685365729290&r=1685365883543
Lookin more like sell the news now after this liquidity pop finishes. U still have ur targets intact?
By the way, happy holidays
Cant fight it unfortunately lol. Maybe after debt ceiling deal or later year? Probably similar to august last year…
NQ traded the pullback and the next target ist around 14140
U’ll probably get the IWM target by beginning june then, NQ and SPY likely off the table to be that low unless NO deal gets passed lol
Hi RCKS, I saw that, I'm looking (hoping) for RUT to take out last June's low before heading up, All the others have taken out that low.
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=IWM&p=60&st=2021-11-01&i=p22209884227&a=1361692571&r=1684431591318
snoot
NDX has joined the HFTOM
remember the trump china trading deal
market moved up like 4 times on rumor of a deal
when they want to sell it they will put out NO DEAL EVER rumor
Not trying to be negative but this divergence is so bad on NQ.. ES has to break n close over 4200
Something will give… NQ faking, dollar lieing, debt ceiling selloff on a bad deal?
breadth ticks weakening
nyse neg -1
nq +1
Sure the NQ is.. daily rsi hot
powerful market
dollar rising so market should be selling
but chapman 9/14 ma gave great crossover signal
day 2 rally
daily bb top should get hit
https://schrts.co/BfyXUMgr
ndx has broken out
ndx daily td 9 count tomorrow
i posted last week put call ratio off the hook
everyone was short and they are getting punished
https://schrts.co/gtBzsjpr
Alot of markets off sync this year
IWM usually leads with QQQ, it's worse than SPY
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=IWM&p=30&st=2022-07-01&i=p32753900303&a=434502557&r=1684400758939&r=1684400875842
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E Wave Rules and Guidelines : see post # 243
Happy Family Theory Of Markets (HFTOM)
AJTJ99 developed this one that states:
Any of the member indices that makes a significant high/low will result in the other members following.
The resulting following of the other members need not be immediate and often can be weeks or even months
members: SPX,INDU,NYA,COMPQ,WLSH, and additional indices to keep an eye on: NDX and RUT
Another of AJTJ99's theories is the no such thing as a triple bottom
The triple bottom will be busted in short order.
Scamman's rule of 3
Scamman's Rule of Three stipulates that when the put-call ratio on any of the key indexes - DJX, SPX and NDX - is 3 or higher on a closing basis, there will be a sell-off within 3 sessions
The rationale is very simple - such an imbalance indicates that the "Da Boyz" have positioned themselves to profit from an imminent decline.
my e mail: snootmagruder@yahoo.com
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