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Despite the rising median short interest in the S&P 500, it remains relatively low, suggesting that market participants are positive or cautiously optimistic about the future performance of the stock market
By: Isabelnet | June 3, 2024
• S&P 500
Despite the rising median short interest in the S&P 500, it remains relatively low, suggesting that market participants are positive or cautiously optimistic about the future performance of the stock market.
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Worst Stock on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) to own in June, looking back over the past 10 years
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | June 3, 2024
• According to data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, Wynn Resorts is the third worst stock on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) to own in June, looking back over the past 10 years. The shares averaged a loss of 3.1% for the month over the last decade, and finished the month lower seven times.
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$SPX $SPY - 'Diamond' B/Test...
By: Sahara | June 3, 2024
• $SPX $SPY - 'Diamond' B/Test...
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Corporate Insiders are once again dumping heavily after the earnings blackout period ended
By: Barchart | June 2, 2024
• Corporate Insiders are once again dumping heavily after the earnings blackout period ended.
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Buyers have ATTACKED $SPY when 50% or more of the index makes new 14-day lows...
By: TrendSpider | June 2, 2024
• Buyers have ATTACKED $SPY when 50% or more of the index makes new 14-day lows...
Alert is set for next time it occurs.
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Carl Futia: June S&P E-mini futures
By: Carl Futia | June 1, 2024
• June S&P E-mini futures: Inflation is coming down and the Fed is unlikely to tighten any more. My long-standing 5400 target has nearly been reached but may well prove too conservative. The 6000 level seems a better bet by the end of the year.
QQQ: Support is now 445. Next resistance is 466.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 3.75% level is support. A swing up to 5.50% is underway.
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is likely to drop to support at 100. Meantime resistance is 112.
Bitcoin: Support is at 56,000. Next upside target is 81,000.
West Texas Crude Oil: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.
Gold: Next upside target is 2500. Support is 2250.
Apple: Next upside target past 200 is 250. Support is 165.
Amazon: Upside target at 175 has been reached. Support now is 145 and next upside target is 205.
Google: Upside target is now 200. Support is 160.
Microsoft: Support is 375 and the next upside target is 500.
Meta: Upside target is now 725. Support now is 500.
Netflix: Upside target is 710. Support now is 450.
Nvidia: Upside target now 1450. Support is 1000.
Tesla: Downside target at 144-150 has been reached. Resistance above the market is 200.
Visa: Upside target at 285 has been reached. Support now is 250.
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2024 Market Breadth Life Hack:
By: TrendSpider | June 2, 2024
• 2024 Market Breadth Life Hack:
~63% of $SPX above 200 day SMA = risk on
~80% of $SPX above 200 day SMA = risk off
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For the second time in a year, the percentage of S&P 500 stocks outperforming the S&P 500 index fell to 25%
By: Dean Christians | June 1, 2024
• For the second time in a year, the percentage of S&P 500 stocks outperforming the S&P 500 index fell to 25%.
Recent precedents have occurred within the context of a dominant sector theme.
Recognizing how this influences market analysis is critical.
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The Most Oversold Stocks this Week in the S&P 500
By: Barchart | June 1, 2024
• Salesforce $CRM is the most oversold stock in the S&P 500
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CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | June 1, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 28, 2024.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net short 2.2k, down 20.6k.
In a holiday-shortened week, equity bears prevailed in the first three sessions, while bulls came roaring back on Friday. The latter’s effort was still not enough to stem a 0.5-percent drop for the week – a first down week in six.
Nevertheless, bulls should be more than happy how the week turned out, as at Friday’s low the S&P 500 was down as much as 2.1 percent for the week; the session low of 5192 came just above the 50-day at 5181, closing the week out at 5278, thanks to a 44-point surge in the last 25 minutes Friday.
Friday’s impressive reversal helped form a potential hanging man on the weekly, which follows last week’s long-legged doji. Overall action has been tentative the last three weeks, with a new intraday high of 5342 coming in a bearish engulfing session on May 23rd (more on this here).
Bulls are holding on to the momentum ball but their grip is at risk of slipping away.
Nasdaq (mini): Currently net short 3.7k, up 8.4k.
After seven weeks of staying net long Nasdaq (mini) futures, non-commercials switched to net short this week.
The Nasdaq 100 at one point on Friday was down as much as 3.3 percent for the week but recovered to end down only 1.4 percent. This is the first negative week in six. Tech bulls showed up in that session 100 points above the 50-day (18090); horizontal support at 18300s, which goes back three months, was breached intraday but saved by close (18537).
This week’s rather wild action came after a new high of 18908 was hit on May 23rd but only to end the session with a bearish engulfing candle.
On the downside, the first line of support lies at 18300s.
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 33.8k, down 3.7k.
The Russell 2000 remains trapped between 2000 and 2100. This week, with a high of 2086 and a low of 2036, the small cap index was essentially unchanged – up 0.02 percent – at 2070.
The index has traded above 2000 since early last month, while 2100 has stood like a mountain since early March. Here is why 2100 is significant.
The Russell 2000 peaked in November 2021 at 2459, subsequently reaching 1641 in June 2022, which was successfully tested in October of both 2022 and 2023. A 61.8-percent Fibonacci retracement of that drop tallies to 2144. The index lost 2100 in January 2022 and has since struggled at that price point; 2100 also represents a measured-move price target post-breakout at 1900 last December. Before that, the index went back and forth between 1700 and 1900 going back to January 2022.
Repeated failure at 2100 suggests the path of least resistance is toward 2000 at best and 1900 at worse.
US Dollar Index: Currently net long 4.2k, up 656.
Yet again, a rising trendline from last December when the US dollar index bottomed at 100.32 drew bids, but nothing much came out of it. This week, the index finished unchanged – down 0.01 percent – to 104.63.
Tuesday’s low of 104.26 also successfully tested the 200-day (104.27), which was again visited on Friday. That said, dollar bulls’ attempt at the 50-day (104.95) was rejected both Thursday and Friday.
Horizontal support at 103-104 goes back to December 2016. A likely breach ahead of the December trendline should swing near-term odds to dollar bears’ favor.
VIX: Currently net short 42.7k, down 8.6k.
VIX added 0.99 points this week to 12.92 but failed to keep most of its gains. Thursday, the volatility index ticked 14.88, followed by Friday’s 14.87; in both those sessions, the 200-day (14.71) was reclaimed intraday but lost by close. In the end, a shooting star formed on the weekly.
Going back six years, volatility bulls have repeatedly defended 12. The streak likely continues. That said, the daily likely comes under pressure in the sessions ahead. On May 23rd, VIX reversed higher from a low of 11.52 to close at 12.77.
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$SPX Leaving you all with this chart for the weekend: was today’s low all of the green W-4 (in black circle)?!
By: Intelligent Investing | May 31, 2024
• $SPX
Leaving you all with this chart for the weekend: was today’s low all of the green W-4 (in black circle)?!
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$SPX $SPY - 'Diamond' Targets Hit
By: Sahara | May 31, 2024
• $SPX $SPY - 'Diamond' Targets Hit.
Also another three of the targets from that Bear 'Wedge' (Red) have been hit...
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June Better in Election Years: Average Gains Range from 0.9% DJIA to 1.9% NASDAQ
By: Almanac Trader | May 31, 2024
Over the last twenty-one years, the month of June has been a rather lackluster month for the market. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have fared better logging average gains of 0.4% and 0.8% respectively. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days. From there the market then drifted sideways and lower near or into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. From there the market rallied to create a mid-month bump that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
In election years since 1950, June has followed a similar pattern to the recent 21-year period, but gains have been notably stronger, and all five indexes finish the month positive. Average June gains in election years range from 0.9% by DJIA to 1.9% by NASDAQ.
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$SPXW $45 Million worth of put sell orders (STO)...
By: Cheddar Flow | May 31, 2024
• $SPXW $45M worth of put sell orders (STO)
These traders are capitalizing on the sudden heightened IV of puts and expect the market to stay around here or bounce
Tons of bullish prints amidst the dip so far today
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$SPY $5 Million OTM Calls (aggressive)
By: Cheddar Flow | May 31, 2024
• $SPY $5M OTM Calls (aggressive)
A lot of call buying across the board yet most are underwater so far
Will they all be wrong or is this a dip-buying opportunity?
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$SPX $Millions of Calls
By: Cheddar Flow | May 31, 2024
• $SPX The plunge protection team has entered the chat
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$SPY $5+ Million ITM Puts Rolling In *Above the Ask*
By: Cheddar Flow | May 31, 2024
• $SPY $5M+ ITM Puts Rolling In
*Above the Ask*
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The 10 Top/Bottom S&P 500 Index percent net change performers
By: Thom Hartle | May 31, 2024
• Today (8:33 CST), the 10 top/bottom percent net change performers in the S&P 500 Index.
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The 10 Top/Bottom NASDAQ 100 Index percent net change performers
By: Thom Hartle | May 31, 2024
• Today (8:33 CST), the 10 top/bottom percent net change performers in the NASDAQ 100 Index.
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When ~50% of stocks in the S&P 500 make new 14-day lows, its been a solid dip to buy for over a year
By: TrendSpider | May 30, 2024
• When ~50% of stocks in the S&P 500 make new 14-day lows, its been a solid dip to buy for over a year. $SPY
Will history repeat?
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For only the 9th time since 1966, the percentage of S&P 500 equal-weighted sectors with a positive relative trend score versus the S&P 500 declined to 0%
By: Dean Christians | May 29, 2024
• For only the 9th time since 1966, the percentage of S&P 500 equal-weighted sectors with a positive relative trend score versus the S&P 500 declined to 0%.
Many believe that narrow leadership signals bearish outcomes, yet history contradicts this view.
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One Bullish Omen for the NASDAQ Just Fired
By: Lucas Downey | May 30, 2024
Stock investing is simple.
Just hold great companies.
But it can get simpler when broad indices find a tailwind.
That’s the situation today. One bullish omen for the NASDAQ just fired.
Data has a way of cutting through the non-stop noise. As institutions buy and sell there are repeatable patterns that offer clues as to what’s ahead.
Just yesterday, we saw the most stock selling since the October lows. Risk-off was widespread.
On the surface, this new information could suggest trouble is ahead for markets.
But we don’t see it that way. Turns out, one bigger theme occurring over the past few weeks, suggests this near-term dip is about to turn into a rip… that you’ll want to buy.
Before we get into that powerful study, let’s put on our Big Money goggles and review the money flow landscape.
Institutions Dump the Most Stocks in 2024
If your portfolio is sagging lately, you’re not alone. While markets trade near all-time highs, plenty of single names are getting trimmed.
You can see this with the latest downtick in the Big Money Index (BMI). As a reminder, if the BMI’s climb is stalled, there’s distribution under-the-surface.
Why this is important is because yesterday revealed the most institutional selling since the October 27th low.
Yesterday’s modest decline actually was a decent sell day in our data. There were 135 discrete equities that were sold, the highest level in 7 months.
Below tallies the daily buy and sell signals on thousands of stocks. Notice the large red bar off to the right.
That’s clearly risk-off action:
The million-dollar question is which stocks are getting sold? It’s actually a mixed bag of healthcare, discretionary, industrial, and technology names, mostly small-caps.
The tiny amount of green, or equities getting bought, are mega-cap technology names with a high index weighting.
This is mission critical because these global heavyweights have been responsible for kickstarting the monster rally back in October.
If you recall back in early November, we told you how Technology was set to explode in 2024. After an oversold BMI, the technology sector in particular averages a gain of 27% twelve months later.
Here’s the graphic from that piece. Tech didn’t disappoint given it’s rallied 36% since our rare oversold signal hit on October 6th:
Data really is beautiful!
But here’s the great news. This rally in tech is far from over because one bullish omen for the NASDAQ just fired.
You just need a map to see the opportunity.
One Bullish Omen for the NASDAQ Just Fired
Don’t leave investing to chance. There’s a rhythm in money flows.
The last couple of months saw a rapid decline in the Big Money Index (BMI). Long-term subscribers of MAPsignals know that we get more bullish as prices fall.
The old adage of buying low and selling high is paramount if you want to be a successful investor. We happen to use our trusty BMI as our guiding light.
Just a few weeks ago our data signaled how a major ultra-bullish signal is approaching. Effectively, when the BMI is in free-fall, it spells big gains ahead.
Back then we isolated all instances when the BMI fell 40 points in a 4-month timespan, similar action to what we saw in April. Here’s a review of what that looks like in practice.
We published this exact chart on May 2nd. An epic rapid decline in the BMI historically has been a great time to buy stocks:
You can review the study by clicking the link above. However, today we’re going to add to it.
Last week we noticed how the spiral in the BMI actually did something quite remarkable. It fell for 10 consecutive days.
Over the past decade since 2014, that’s only happened 188 times. A handful of memorable occurrences were in late 2014, early 2016, late 2018, the pandemic, and the bear market of 2022.
Ladies and gentlemen, these 10-day declines are some of the most bullish signals you’ll find. When I say one bullish omen for the NASDAQ just fired, you’ll agree after this chart!
When we singled out all days when the prior 10 days saw the BMI fall consecutively, large caps surged.
For comparison I included both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500 forward performance post these rare events.
When the BMI falls 10 days consecutively:
• 3-months later the S&P 500 jumps 6.5% and the NASDAQ vaults 9.1%
• 12-months later SPX climbs 18% and the tech-heavy NASDAQ rips 27.4%
• Be bold and hold for 24-months and you’re staring at 30.5% gains for the S&P and a mind-numbing 46.7% catapult for the NASDAQ
Folks, this is what a tailwind looks like in data.
If history is any guide, the current rally has plenty more upside.
We took our cues to buy stocks back in October based on evidence-rich insights. We’ll be following that playbook again.
Knowing which specific equities to zero in on is paramount.
Let a map show you the path!
Here’s the bottom line: There’s notable selling in our data. In fact, yesterday saw the most stock selling since the market bottom in October.
That’s not the overwhelming signal to focus on.
The bigger story is what happened last month. The BMI fell 10 consecutive days, which has only occurred 188 times the last decade.
Turns out, it’s a long-term signal to buy large-cap stocks. Amazingly, the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 soars 27% twelve months later.
Even more incredible, the NASDAQ rips an average of 46% twenty-four months post this signal!
Don’t miss the opportunity in front of you.
Investing in great companies is how you win over the long-run.
Investing alongside a massive tailwind makes it that much more enjoyable!
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Money managers Remain Bullish with their exposure to the US Equity markets since last week...
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NAAIM Exposure Index
May 30, 2024
The NAAIM Number
92.21
Last Quarter Average
84.57
»»» Read More…
June Almanac: Third Best S&P 500 Month in Election Years
By: Almanac Trader | May 30, 2024
Over the last 53 years June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking seventh best with a 0.9% average gain, up 30 of 53 years (since 1971). This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” which ends in June. June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but with an 0.1% average gain.
Small caps have tended to fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.8% in the month since 1979 advancing 64.4% of the time. During the bear market in 2022, Russell 1000 and 2000 suffered their worst June losses ever, dropping 8.5% and 8.4% respectively. S&P 500 and NASDAQ also dropped over 8% that year.
June is the #5 DJIA month in election years averaging a 0.9% gain with a record of thirteen advances in eighteen years. For S&P 500, June is #3 with an average gain of 1.3% (15-3 record). Election-year June ranks #3 for NASDAQ and #5 for Russell 2000 with average gains of 1.9% and 1.6% respectively. This performance improvement is most likely the result of the presidential candidate field being sufficiently narrowed (in past election years), and the ultimate nominees being identified.
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The AAII Investor Sentiment
By: AAII | May 30, 2024
Bullish 39.0%
Neutral 34.2%
Bearish 26.7%
• Historical 1-Year High
Bullish: 52.9%
Neutral: 36.4%
Bearish: 50.3%
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S&P 500: The US stock market's reading of 84.99 indicates that it remains overbought, leading to concerns among some investors who anticipate a potential correction in the near future
By: Isabelnet | May 29, 2024
• S&P 500
The US stock market's reading of 84.99 indicates that it remains overbought, leading to concerns among some investors who anticipate a potential correction in the near future.
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$SPX $SPY - 'Diamond' on the Mrkt-Hrs Chart yet to go in-play
By: Sahara | May 29, 2024
• $SPX $SPY - 'Diamond' on the Mrkt-Hrs Chart yet to go in-play.
Note where this Pattern is positioned here. A breakdown would target the Lwr-Band of the Lrgr 'Broadening' Plot.
Down to as low as 4800...
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$SPY 22,648 Call contracts bought to open. This whale is BULLISH on the S&P 500
By: Cheddar Flow | May 29, 2024
• $SPY Woah.
This whale is BULLISH on the S&P 500
They bought a far OTM Call that expires in ~2 weeks and executed the order above the ask
22,648 contracts bought to open
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The 10 Top/Bottom S&P 500 Index percent net change performers
By: Thom Hartle | May 28, 2024
• Today (8:33 CST), the 10 top/bottom percent net change performers in the S&P 500 Index.
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The 10 Top/Bottom NASDAQ 100 Index percent net change performers
By: Thom Hartle | May 28, 2024
• Today (8:33 CST), the 10 top/bottom percent net change performers in the NASDAQ 100 Index.
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$SPY Super Light $400 Million worth of sig Dark Pool prints today
By: Cheddar Flow | May 28, 2024
• $SPY Super Light $400M worth of sig Dark Pool prints today.
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The cumulative number of technical warnings on the Nasdaq is stacking up
By: Jason Goepfert | May 28, 2024
• The cumulative number of technical warnings on the Nasdaq is stacking up.
It has now reached a level exceeded only 3 other times since 1986:
* The peak in 1990
* The peak in 2000
* The peak in 2007
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$SPX - Recovering its 4Hr EMA's after only tapping one Red-Arrowed Target from the Bear 'Wedge'
By: Sahara | May 28, 2024
• $SPX - Recovering its 4Hr EMA's after only tapping one Red-Arrowed Target from the Bear 'Wedge'.
If it can retain the recovered 20/EMA (Blue) then it will target the Uppr-Band of a 'Broadening' Plot. Otherwise I can see those other red targets getting tripped in quick-step...
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Sentiment: The Market Greed/Fear Index reading of 84.87 indicates significant market greed, reflecting high optimism among market participants
By: Isabelnet | May 28, 2024
• Sentiment
The Market Greed/Fear Index reading of 84.87 indicates significant market greed, reflecting high optimism among market participants.
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Margin debt continues to rise, remaining below extreme levels. This reflects the optimism among market participants and has the potential to drive further upward momentum in US stock prices
By: Isabelnet | May 28, 2024
• Margin debt continues to rise, remaining below extreme levels. This reflects the optimism among market participants and has the potential to drive further upward momentum in US stock prices.
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$QQQ Large $549 Million Singular Dark Pool Print
By: Cheddar Flow | May 28, 2024
• $QQQ Large $549M Singular Dark Pool Print.
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S&P 500 Core Systems approaching extreme overbought:
By: Macro Charts | May 25, 2024
• Core Systems approaching extreme overbought:
• The Stock rally which began at the April 19 lows — when Core Models were Bullish — may soon be over.
Topping structures may take some days, but for the groups that matter (and are exhibiting clear Negative Momentum), the rally looks largely over.
Weakness has been spreading in key areas — a leading indicator.
The list of important Stocks with Negative Momentum is expanding.
We’ll cover the signals I’m watching to confirm an important turn.
Some could potentially confirm as early as next week.
I’ll update if / when they trigger.
• Rates, the Dollar and Volatility are at an important juncture.
Bond Yields and the Dollar are showing signs of a classic Trend extension.
We’ll update the key charts from Thursday’s post, and expand on several new signals & ideas.
Signals are triggering without delay — a subtle, but important change in tone.
• Oil and Energy Stocks haven’t shown relative strength yet, but the potential is still there.
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$SPX seemingly range bound between 0.75 and 1.0 std dev. Waiting to see signs of direction
By: Barchart | May 25, 2024
• Less than half of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 50D moving average even with the $SPX near all-time highs.
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Five dynamics that could drive the financial markets
By: Raymond James Financial | May 24, 2024
Key Takeaways
• Inflation should resume its downward trend
• Positive earnings streak should continue
• Expect some election volatility this summer
While Memorial Day ushers in a fun-filled weekend of festivities, family picnics and barbeques with friends – we must always remember to honor all the men and women who valiantly served and made the ultimate sacrifice for our country to defend our freedoms. We salute you. And with the summer season unofficially kicking off this weekend, be safe wherever your travels may take you. In fact, this Memorial Day is expected to draw a near record number of travelers, with AAA projecting ~44 million people traveling this holiday weekend – that’s a 4% increase from last year and the second highest number in ~20 years! As we set our sights on the summer, here are five dynamics that could drive the financial markets between Memorial Day and Labor Day:
• The data dependent Fed | Fed fund forecasts have swung wildly, moving from six 25 bp rate cuts at the start of the year to just 35 bps of easing (one to two cuts) today. The sharp repricing has been driven by sticky inflation and the economy’s resilience.
• June 11-12 FOMC meeting—while no rate changes are expected, an updated dot plot and economic forecasts will be presented. Does the Fed still see a steady decline in rates? Do cuts start this year? How fluid are its economic forecasts?
• July 30-31 FOMC meeting—earliest meeting the Fed could potentially cut rates. While many believe the Fed will wait until September, it is premature to overlook July. While the window for a July cut is small, keep in mind we still get 3 PCE, 2 CPI, and 2 payroll readings before that meeting. If these readings suggest cooling inflation and job market, combined with continued corporate rhetoric of a slowing consumer, this meeting could be a chance for the Fed to take an ‘insurance’ cut.
• Inflation should resume its downward trend | While the April inflation report moved in the right direction after a string of hotter than expected inflation reports, there are still lingering concerns about the persistence of inflation.
• Core inflation likely to decelerate—Why? Because rent inflation should slow as asking rents normalize following the pandemic housing boom. In fact, Redfin reported that some areas that saw the biggest booms (Austin, Nashville, Tampa) are seeing the steepest drops in rents over the last year. Given the lags in this data, further disinflation is likely in the pipeline.
• Consumers pushing back on price increases—companies like Walmart and Target are reducing prices on everyday items to lure customers back into the stores. Fast food and casual restaurants are rolling out value meals to cater to budget-strapped consumers. These disinflationary tailwinds should persist over the summer in both goods and services prices.
• Positive earnings streak to continue | Earnings have been better than expected thus far this year as 2024 S&P 500 earnings have been stable (current consensus: $243) and have not exhibited the typical downward revision trend.
• 2Q24 earnings season—believe it or not, it is just seven weeks away with the big banks reporting in early July. Earnings growth is expected to be positive (~10% YoY) for the fourth consecutive quarter, led by Comm. Services and Health Care.
• Mega-cap tech—likely to remain strong once again, with MAGMAN expected to see ~29% YoY earnings growth.
• Broadening of EPS growth—after the Index ex-MAGMAN (i.e., the other 494 companies) notched its first quarter of positive growth since 4Q22, earnings for this group are expected to accelerate to ~7% YoY, signaling the broadening of earnings.
• Earnings need to deliver—while economic activity is expected to moderate, earnings growth will have to remain robust and trend higher to support the already elevated P/E multiple (which is in its 92nd percentile over the last 30 years).
• Expect some election volatility | Volatility tends to pick up during the summer in election years. A few potential drivers:
• Former President Trump’s NY legal case—will go to the jury next week with a conviction potentially hampering some of his support versus an acquittal (or hung jury) potentially solidifying his support.
• Presidential debate(s)—the first debate (on June 27) is the first debate ever held before both parties’ conventions. The second debate is not until September 10. Market topics of importance: the economy, inflation, tariffs, taxes, and regulations.
• Political conventions—the Republican National Convention (in Milwaukee) is July 15-18 while the Democratic National Convention (in Chicago) is August 19-22. Prior to the GOP National Convention, President Trump will select his VP candidate.
• AI trends in focus | Evidenced by the attention to developer conferences from OpenAI, Alphabet and Microsoft over the last few weeks, investors remain keenly focused on AI and its continued development.
• Apple’s worldwide developers conference—the second largest company in the S&P 500 will host its conference June 10-14 where it is expected to reveal its plans within the AI space. This should continue to drive investment within AI and be a tailwind for earnings. However, with lofty expectations for the industry growing, any disappointments will lead to volatility.
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When we filter $QQQ seasonality data to only include election years, the index has outperformed during the next three months
By: TrendSpider | May 25, 2024
• When we filter $QQQ seasonality data to only include election years, the index has outperformed during the next three months.
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CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | May 25, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 21, 2024.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net short 22.8k, down 2.5k.
This was an interesting week, with equity bulls having romped for four preceding weeks. By Thursday, the S&P 500 was up 0.7 percent for the week at the session high and down 0.9 percent at the low; in the end, the index tagged a fresh high of 5342 but only to reverse to end near the session low. Friday’s 0.7-percent gain salvaged the week for the bulls.
For the week, the large cap index ended up 0.03 percent – essentially flat – to 5305, for a weekly doji. This, along with Thursday’s bearish engulfing candle, has opened the door for the bears; but they need to push the large cap index below 5260s to get any traction near term. This looks imminent in the sessions ahead.
Nasdaq (mini): Currently net long 4.7k, up 1.5k.
On Thursday, in the wake of Nvidia’s (NVDA) April-quarter results, the Nasdaq 100 diverged with the stock, with the latter jumping 9.3 percent to a new high and the index closing down 0.4 percent; in fact, the tech-heavy index was up 1.1 percent at the session high but gave all of it back and then some. In the end, Thursday evolved as a massive bearish engulfing candle.
Thanks to Friday’s one-percent rally, the week ended up 1.4 percent anyway – a fifth up week in a row. Thursday’s action does however show that the bulls will not hesitate to take profit, given how far the index has come. Most recently, on April 19th, the Nasdaq 100 bottomed at 16974, preceded by 14058 last October. This Thursday, it ticked 18908, before closing the week out at 18808.
On the downside, nearest support lies at 18300s.
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 37.6k, up 5.5k.
For five consecutive sessions through Tuesday, small-cap bulls rallied the Russell 2000 just north of 2100 intraday, but to no avail. Last week, the index finished at 2096. This week, it dropped 1.2 percent to 2070. This price point is increasingly proving significant.
The small cap index peaked in November 2021 at 2459, subsequently reaching 1641 in June 2022, which was successfully tested in October of both 2022 and 2023. A 61.8-percent Fibonacci retracement of that drop tallies to 2144. The index lost 2100 in January 2022 and has since struggled at that price point; 2100 also represents a measured-move price target post-breakout at 1900 last December. Before that, the index went back and forth between 1700 and 1900 going back to January 2022.
Yet another failure at reclaiming 2100 likely opens the door toward 2000 at best and 1900 at worse.
US Dollar Index: Currently net long 3.5k, up 1.1k.
Last week, the US dollar index successfully tested a rising trendline from last December; back then, it bottomed at 100.32. This week, dollar bulls once again showed up at that support as early as Monday. By the end of the week, it added 0.3 percent to 104.64. The only thing is that the index recaptured the 50-day (104.83) for two sessions through Thursday but only to lose it on Friday. The 200-day at 104.23 lies below.
Horizontal support at 103-104 goes back to December 2016. So, this is an area that genuinely attracts both bulls and bears, and it is happening. A breach of the trendline mentioned above swings the favor to bears’ favor.
VIX: Currently net short 51.4k, up 3.3k.
VIX gave back 0.06 points to 11.93 – its second straight sub-12 close. The volatility index has now dropped for five weeks in a row.
For the most part, volatility bulls have defended 12 the past six years. From their perspective, the problem is that no one is seeking any protection right now.
Through Wednesday, the CBOE equity-only put-to-call ratio printed 0.50s for eight sessions in a row, before rising to 0.60s on Thursday and Friday. If past is prelude, the only certainty in this is that once this complacency ends, it brings with it a lot of pain.
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DiscoverGold
$SPY Within the past month, there's been a couple of large singular put orders -- none of which have panned out in the bears' favor. All of these coming in at once is a change of scenery
By: Cheddar Flow | May 24, 2024
• $SPY Hmmm
Within the past month, there's been a couple of large singular put orders -- none of which have panned out in the bears' favor
All of these coming in at once is a change of scenery
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DiscoverGold
$QQQ Very Bullish Call Print
By: Cheddar Flow | May 24, 2024
• $QQQ & $TSLA Very Bullish Call Prints
The $TSLA order is highly unusual because it has a lot of premium, is OTM, and has a near-term expiration
It was bought to open too (Vol>OI)
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DiscoverGold
Market Looks Toppy
By: Carl Swenlin | May 24, 2024
In spite of the massive celebration of Nvidia's earnings report, we are seeing troublesome signs that the market is in the process of putting in a top. There are double top formations on six of the nine major indexes we follow, but the three indexes that haven't topped yet, Nasdaq 100, S&P 100, and Nasdaq Composite, have heavy influence from big tech stocks.
We also have double or triple tops on nine of the eleven S&P 500 Sectors. Of the two remaining sectors, only Technology (XLK) hasn't topped. Consumer Staples (XPL) doesn't have a double top, but it does appear to have topped--a double is not required.
As we were writing this article, the market made new, all-time highs intraday, but it reversed quite sharply, supposedly because of worry that the Fed won't cut rates this year. We prefer to think it had more to do with the technical problems (many negative divergences) we see on the chart below.
Conclusion: The superb performance of the technology sector, and Nvidia in particular, has drawn attention away from other areas of the market where the picture is not so stellar. While most of those areas are not yet in a ditch, price action is telling us to prepare for potential problems in the near future.
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DiscoverGold
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