Revance Therapeutics Inc (RVNC)

[iwfal]

but it's also the result of many greedy CosmeticMDs not wanting to see their customers (I call them customers not patients as these doctors are unscrupulous salespeople more than medical professionals) less often without being compensated by a higher price.

Sure. Not allowing practices to advertise was always the most insane policy and this was entirely predictable. But IIRC Revance didnt change this policy until early this year - ie substantially after the pricing change.

[edcoolidge]

I think what Mark said was true in that prices are trending down and I've definitely been seeing more practices offering Daxxify at $5-$8/unit recently. As soma2022 has informed us practices can get Daxxify at $2.75/unit if they're doing sufficient volume—which of course any self-respecting practice not run by an unscrupulous CosmeticMD should be. But in typical Foley fashion he may have overstated somewhat how close they are to price parity. Admittedly the majority of practices that advertise Daxxify on social media don't include their price so the sample size is small but it seems to be a fairly good cross-section of practices that do.

For reference the first screenshot below shows a practice with total price parity based on the amount of toxin. You get the exact same amount of toxin for the same price. (2:1 Daxxify to Botox, 3:1 Dysport to Botox unit conversation). Below that are some recent posts showing significantly higher Daxxify unit prices. Some don't show their prices for other toxins but at $15/unit it's hard to imagine Daxxify isn't considerably higher than their other toxins (Botox would have to be $30/unit for parity). Confusingly some practices advertise a flat price for any toxin as seen in the last screenshot. When that includes Dysport the practice is pretty clearly obfuscating the real units to simplify things for the customer (or to cheat them), but many don't include Dysport which makes it less clear without a phone call.

[go seek]

So Soma, if Revance hits ~ Revenue of $70M, $75M, and $85M (or thereabouts) in the next 3 quarters, the $280M revenue target for 2024 will be achieved.

[10nisman]

Got messages from most of the toxin reps the past couple hours. Trying to close out the quarter strong :)

Thanks for stating the obvious. Sales reps in every industry try to close out quarters strong.

[alertmeipp]

>> still charging a considerable premium for Daxxify over Botox (on a 2-to-1 unit basis)

You have data to back up your claim? in the recent webcast, management mentioned prices has finally come down for most practices, only some still charge premium prices as their customers willing to pay more for better product.

[boraborak38]

Got messages from most of the toxin reps the past couple hours. Trying to close out the quarter strong :)

[edcoolidge]

Another problem right now is that many if not most practices are still charging a considerable premium for Daxxify over Botox (on a 2-to-1 unit basis). Partly this is a remnant of Revance's failed premium price strategy—but it's also the result of many greedy CosmeticMDs not wanting to see their customers (I call them customers not patients as these doctors are unscrupulous salespeople more than medical professionals) less often without being compensated by a higher price. Daxxify market share will thus have to be won by better practices offering the best products to their customers at a fair price taking share from unscrupulous practices that do not.

[alertmeipp]

Yes I think too early to tell

This is like the first quarter on the re launch and people already throwing in towels

And citing bankruptcy probability

The same site says EOLS is likely to bankrupt too which to me is non sense as well

The product worth much more than the debt, worse case, I see this get sold

[boraborak38]

“The biggest challenge to hitting the sales forecast isn't the salesforce but a general softening in the industry / consumer spending…”

Disagree. Something bigger at play here. Obviously launch and pricing was terrible. But if the product was the elixir it claimed/s, it should be able to overcome slight softening. Overpromised, burned practices, and slow ramp of training injectors are a few of the problems not related to any softening in the market.

[kld2]

Maybe it's already been posted, but how do you know that RVNC Corporate management is hearing "the same information"? I mean, if they aren't hearing anything after dropping from 36 to 2, something is dearly amiss.

[iwfal]

By investing in RVNC you're investing in the Management team and all the good, bad, and ugly that comes with it. It's the fun of investing

No, suggest the “fun in investing” is making $. Investing is not like sports - where it is still fun even if your team is the Chicago Cubs.

[10nisman]

After a successful week or two, this board is back to being a pile of non-sense again.

Recent mistakes... To begin with, he had a chance to hire someone knowledgeable about the aesthetic industry after moving on from DS. Instead, he chose a new, highly incompetent CCO who, in turn, hired equally incompetent staff and an even more clueless VP of sales. He had one opportunity to improve the situation, but he managed to make it worse. As a result, reaching 280 million in sales will be a challenge with the current rate of sales force attrition..

If you don't like the way Foley / Management have been or are running the business, sell and move on. It's that simple. By investing in RVNC you're investing in the Management team and all the good, bad, and ugly that comes with it. It's the fun of investing. Foley owns 1+ million shares and has every interest in trying to maximize the share price overtime.

With respect to sales force attrition --- high performing sales reps get reward and stay, while non-performing sales reps leave. The biggest challenge to hitting the sales forecast isn't the salesforce but a general softening in the industry / consumer spending.

The RVNC going bankrupt talk is non-sense. No competent long-only institutional investor talks bankruptcy about their positions. If they want change, they can become an activist, send a letter to Foley / Board / Shareholders, highlight their major concerns and changes they want, etc. However, that's work, and a lot easier to just sell their position. You all can do the same.

With that said, RVNC could sell itself tomorrow for multiples of the current share price.

[spongepaul]

I wasn’t aware of Deming working in China. I had only read of his work TQM work in Japan..

[vinmantoo]

Shortly after the DAX approval, I warned this board not to sell allergan’s, marketing and sales team short.

I was ignored

Roy‘s praise led the perma-bulls to assume that Revance would automatically get 100% of the market.

Ian, why do you keep repeating that lie about what RVNC investors expected regarding market share? I never assumed or even dreamed that Daxxify would ever grab anything close to 100% of the market, let alone get there automatically.

You are acting as if the low share price of RNVC represents a personal triumph for you. Now if you really were so sure RVNC would be a disaster then you would have shorted it and touting it at the time you did it. You didn't so you are just some guy spouting off after the fact about how smart is was/is. Sounds kind of like a bit of insecurity to me.

[IanFromSI]

Revance did not have a quality assurance VP

It does not have one today. At least there is no executive with QA explicitly mentioned.

QA manager (low level in the company) got no support either from the manufacturer or the company.

About 40 years ago, Deming revolutionized production in China through the introduction of quality improvement. At that time north American corporations recognized that they had to get their act together or become a second class nation.

Clearly, Foley had no excuse. He should’ve known, and he should’ve provided support to his quality assurance representative, regardless of how low that person was in the company.

For those who have search, this was discussed on this thread shortly after the CRL was issued.

[spongepaul]

I believe that the skills of allergan sales team was discussed here and that it was common knowledge that they would be very effective at defending their market share.

[10nisman]

Buffet, One of the best investors in the world, won’t touch companies with incompetent management. Why in the world do people here insist on ignoring Buffet’s example?

It's Buffett, genius. What kind of "investor" cannot even spell Warren's last name correctly? SMH... Ian is back on ignore.

BTW, Buffett's famous quote regarding Management is --- "I try to invest in businesses that are so wonderful that an idiot can run them. Because sooner or later, one will."

[Jab44]

Making sound decisions is what a seasoned leader does. I gave him a pass for getting a CRL even though he had 18 months to prepare for the inspection. His background is more commercial than operational so if he trusted his QA / Regulatory VP that everything was fine I understand that.
That said all the other missteps are solely on him . He developed the strategy, he is responsible for hiring the senior staff, he managed the P/L and put them in a risky financial situation. This isn’t rocket science and a true sound proven leader would not make the many mistakes Foley has made and kept his job.

[IanFromSI]

Shortly after the DAX approval, I warned this board not to sell allergan’s, marketing and sales team short.

I was ignored

Roy‘s praise led the perma-bulls to assume that Revance would automatically get 100% of the market.

Until the middle of this year they stuck by that assumption and completely ignored everything that would’ve convinced them to make reality their friend.

[spongepaul]

Perhaps, however it is easier to point out in hindsight what could have been than to have to make the decisions in real time.

[IanFromSI]

Perhaps if he was a bit more competent, he wouldn’t of had to have raised the money, he would’ve earned it.

[spongepaul]

Because I don’t believe that Mr. Foley is as bad a manager as some here imply. On the contrary, so far, he has been very effective in raising $ when he needed to.

[IanFromSI]

Many of the posters on this board, continue that underestimate the extremely effective sales team that other game has successfully defended other attacks on its Botox blockbuster.

Let reality be your friend.

Allergan has an exceptionally successful marketing and sales team. Revance is unlikely to ever have that kind of successful sales team.

Expecting incompetent managers to consistently hire people much better than they are is
just never gonna happen in any corporation.

Buffet, One of the best investors in the world, won’t touch companies with incompetent management. Why in the world do people here insist on ignoring Buffet’s example?

[go seek]

RVNC / Revance will recover and prosper. Major reason: DAXXIFY and the RHA collection are excellent products that will continue to gain share.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C8cs90IRWbi/?igsh=MXQ1eTA4bHpkbzJpcA==

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C8nbjP3yfxP/?igsh=MnZ0cDNlMmxuNnRl

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C8nF-VbuI2b/?igsh=MWhzeXlyZ2UxczF5Mw==

[alertmeipp]

The board is the worse, ~zero insider buys.

[JesterJungle1]

And yet the board stands by all of these terrible decisions… when will they do something?

[JesterJungle1]

Recent mistakes... To begin with, he had a chance to hire someone knowledgeable about the aesthetic industry after moving on from DS. Instead, he chose a new, highly incompetent CCO who, in turn, hired equally incompetent staff and an even more clueless VP of sales. He had one opportunity to improve the situation, but he managed to make it worse. As a result, reaching 280 million in sales will be a challenge with the current rate of sales force attrition..

[alertmeipp]

Many said $RIVN is going under, well it just get up to $5 billions investment from VW.. up 60% AH... maybe $RVNC will get a partnership or buyout news soon.

I would love to get out soon.

[Jab44]

I think most of us were in for the long game. We expected to have a few good years of sales and Foley would sell the company. I surely didn’t plan on holding this stock for 8-10 years but if we are lucky and avoid Chapter 11 it could very well be 2028 before they could sell the company for 3-4 billion.
Foley had so many hiccups it is hard to believe he has survived. He built an empire before he had the sales to support it. At this stage all we can hope for is that Daxiffy catches on very quickly and the spending is drastically reduced.

[alertmeipp]

They won't be profitable Q1 20205 unless Daxxify sales suddenly zoom up like crazy. The goal is to become cash flow positive by 2025 and demonstrate solid sales and growth, then they would be able to refinance.

[IanFromSI]

One of the RVNC Executive Management team asked Foley why the SP has dropped...Foley's answer was "I don't know" ...of course Foley knew the answer, which is and was "my bad leadership decisions".

How would an simple investor know that Foley is a total IDIOT

===================================

A couple brief extracts from the seeking Alpha link posted by JBog might help you understand.

@@@@@@@@@@@@@

Revance failed to help itself, by initially offering Daxxify at a premium price to Botox - in the region of $450-$900 for a year's treatment, where Botox costs $300-$600. Requiring fewer injections, Revance reasoned it should charge more for its shot, but sales have ultimately been disappointing.

————————————————/////////////:

Finally, the lawsuit against AbbVie is troubling and could end up with Daxxify being withdrawn from the market altogether, or with Revance having to compensate AbbVie for every sale it makes. It may also endanger the Viatris / Fosun agreements.

Some may argue that Revance, with a market cap of <$300m, is a strong contrarian buy opportunity, as how can shares sink any lower? My feeling, however, is that the company could be forced to complete a stock split to maintain a share price >$1 long-term, however.

===============================

One of the first things Art Cashin taught me about stocks was that there’s never a single cockroach. There’s always hundreds of them. As investors, we just don’t get to see all of them. Never have, never will.

The first cockroach (infestation) I saw was the failure of Revance‘s first Botox attempt. It should’ve been caught before the phase 3 failure. After all, why conduct phase 1 and phase 2 trials in the first place?

… But Roy Convinced me. …. A Much better toxin was in the pipeline and could be expected soon.

Another Major cockroach (infestation) was probably the FOAD letter for DAXXIFY(they call it a CRL) from the FDA telling Revance to clean up its manufacturing mess.

There were many clues which warned small, large, or medium sized investors to stay away from this company. I did. …. But I never lost interest totally.

This is more long-winded than I intended. I hope it helps.

[SuperAstrologer43]

If you believe Foley that Revance will be profitable by Q1 2025 then that's all the cash they will need so hence no needs to raise more. If next earning or future forcast is bad then yes we are in for another financing round and this high interest rate environment, probably sell more shares .. As long as it not dropped below $1 and got delisted. Matket cap now is below annual sale. Maybe someone ask Buffet to take a look?

[vinmantoo]

I understand that many think Foley screwed up the initial launch... but what about now? Any more recent mistake that you see.

Their plan seems reasonable, even the recent $100 raise seems to be decently timed looking back.

I sure hope they raised more than $100! 🤣

[alertmeipp]

Nobody? How many those that paid 100mm to subscribe to the secondary couple months ago?

We got some pretty solid fund managers increased their positions Q1 too, are they nobody?

[Emannow]

Foley’s character is the issue! Nobody trusts or believes in him! Does not matter if Foley is making the correct functional decisions, investors do not trust or believe in him! Foley was never truthful from day one with the Daxi PreV program which continued on, was extended, because there was not enough approved Daxi Product for a general market release! Foley was never truthful and investors have turned their backs on Revance! Investors can buy a different biotech versus RVNC.

No investor wants a great product with a poor CEO!

[alertmeipp]

>> There are 3 or 4 CEOs available who know the aesthetic industry


but then what they can do differently vs what Foley is doing now.

I understand that many think Foley screwed up the initial launch... but what about now? Any more recent mistake that you see.

Their plan seems reasonable, even the recent $100 raise seems to be decently timed looking back.

[Emannow]

There are 3 or 4 CEOs available who know the aesthetic industry, Filler and Toxin, and are trusted and loved by the Wall Steet Investor Community who could fix the investor disaster Foley has created!

The issue is Foley’s Character!

[alertmeipp]

>> Foley needs to be removed!!!

Ok, let's say we fire Foley... And then what?

[Emannow]

The RVNC Corporate management is hearing the same information from Institutional Investors , that they think Foley will bankrupt Revance!

Foley is not trusted by anyone..RVNC Management, institutional Investors, or us little guys on the message boards!

Foley needs to be removed!!!

[vinmantoo]

Small cap biotech tends could move up or down big time for no reason...

The total value of RVNC shares traded today was ~$4 million (1.6 million shares x $2.40/share ) so it is easy to get big shifts using small amounts of cash.

Emannow, you turned rather negative in last couple posts, post about BK probability and now said RVNC's survival is on the line if they miss Q2.

I think u need to chill out a bit.. or just get out of the kitchen if you can't stand the heat. As long as RVNC achieves good enough sales next few quarters, they should be able to refinance their debt.

RVNC is trading as if it will run out of money next month and just got a negative decision from the FDA but obviously neither is true. It is shocking to such such a rapid drop in a relatively short period but I am never surprised anymore on how small biotechs trade. Does anyone actually think everyone else knows that Daxxify sales will suck in the next quarter or 2 so they are bailing now based on that secret privileged information? I do understand why people are unhappy with management, especially Foley. It really sucks seeing the stock price go down but there is no point in getting angry and bitching about it. Life is too short to get angry. Sell, suck it up or, perish the thought, nibble a bit more.

[alertmeipp]

Not investors but for sure lots of traders that are taking advantage of this uncertainty

[boraborak38]

Investors just don’t believe anything management says. And until they prove otherwise, that belief will continue. It’s the sad truth

[alertmeipp]

Emannow, you turned rather negative in last couple posts, post about BK probability and now said RVNC's survival is on the line if they miss Q2.

I think u need to chill out a bit.. or just get out of the kitchen if you can't stand the heat. As long as RVNC achieves good enough sales next few quarters, they should be able to refinance their debt.

Small cap biotech tends could move up or down big time for no reason...

This one sucks, but spreading fear like BK probability or suggesting Q2 miss will impact survival is just not helping until you will be benefiting from share price drop.

[Emannow]

Foley is the silver tongued guy who will say anything. Per conversations, aesthetic sales have been soft in 2024 Q2 and my estimate is RVNC will be short of their sales goal. The industry is soft, but for RVNC the reason for the shortfall is not relevant as RVNC has to make the goal to stay alive!

Foley's past leadership decisions have put RVNC in the worst possible position and a HUGE hole. The big funds are trying to average price down which is the ONLY reason they have bought more shares. The market knows as each month goes bye that it is less and less likely that RVNC will recover from Foley's bad decisions.

One of the RVNC Executive Management team asked Foley why the SP has dropped...Foley's answer was "I don't know" ...of course Foley knew the answer, which is and was "my bad leadership decisions".

How would an simple investor know that Foley is a total IDIOT!

[alertmeipp]

I hear you. But the question is what's new that would cause the recent drop (from 7 bucks secondary to $2.3)... or from 3 bucks few days ago to 2.3

If it's pure trading sardine moves, why I would distrust Foley for that..

[Jab44]

I guess the question is can you trust Foley. I have owned this stock before 2019 and my experiences thus far with Mark is he will say or do anything to buy himself more time.
In addition when the chairman of the board is reluctant to put up his own money and the stock is $2 it makes me wonder why not ??

[alertmeipp]

Dew and others - any news that you guys aware that might have caused the latest weakness?

I have maxed out my allocation so all I can do now is to watch paint dry

[alertmeipp]

Lol. What a day for the bashers. All these talks about BK all the sudden, they have 250mm plus cash on hand, and two years plus away from any maturity.

They have reaffirmed 280mm sales this year, ie. it is selling at 1.5x EV/sales now.

And sales are growing

They guided that they will be cash flow positive by 2025

Either they are lying or this is like life time opp

[Jab44]

That might be because they know the second quarter sales numbers and how close they are to bankruptcy.

[alertmeipp]

Still zero insider buys - that is unforgivable