Reeds Inc. (REED)

[DarkLady]

Todays chart is interesting. Still shows negative indicators, but interesting. may try a nibble around 4.25

[gfp927z]

The 'death cross' can be a lagging indicator, with the actual cross coming after most of the drop is over. I'm guessing the stock could consolidate within the 3-4 support area as investors await the Q1 and Q2 revenue numbers.

Fwiw, I've been estimating revenues in the $40 mil range for 2013, with the ramp up in Kombucha sales gaining momentum throughout the year. Figure an average of $10 mil in revenues per quarter, with $8-10 mil/qtr in Q1 and Q2, and $10-12 mil in Q3 and Q4.

[DarkLady]

The chart shown by GLP is very informative. I do believe we should hold no lower that 3.75. That's my guess based on the fundamental and the technicals, JMHO. We could base right around 4. Everyone must do their own DD. I will let the technicals tell me when to test the waters.

[up_and_down16]

Yup, this chart is not looking good at all. If the 50 dma does cross below the 200 dma, we are in trouble.

DarkLady - thanks a ton. I listened to you and got out back in the mid-7's. Waiting for a chance to get back in but it will be only when the technicals turn

[gfp927z]

Chart-wise, it's sitting right above a broad support zone between 3-4, with the 50 MA about to cross below the 200 MA ('death cross') -

[DarkLady]

I bailed because I determined that $8 plus just wasn' supported by the sales, revenue and profit. It will find its balance point and then start to move slowly up, JMHO.

[gfp927z]

Yes, the stock had such a huge move in 2012 that it needed some consolidation. To maintain the higher pps levels would have probably required Q4 revenues of 9 or 10 mil. Since that hasn't happened, the big question now is how fast Kombucha sales will ramp up in Q1 and Q2.

Chart-wise, looks like a wide support band in 3-4 area. If 4 doesn't hold, I figure anything in the mid/low 3s would be a great entry point longer term if one believes in Kombucha.

[DarkLady]

Le's let the technicals lead us. Except for the ADX they are essentially negative right now. And that's based on the daily. If you look at the weekly, everythings negative.

[DarkLady]

Like I said, I don't like picking bottoms. Let's be patient.

[gfp927z]

It looks like revenues have been essentially flat for the last 3 quarters (see below).

They announced YOY revenues for 2012 'increased 20% to more than $30 million', which would put Q4 2012 revs at $7.742 mil, plus a little, so figure approx $7.9 mil area. So 3 quarters in a row essentially flat, albeit up nicely YOY from 2011.


Q4 2012 revenue projection -


Q4 - 2012 -- at least 7.742 mil

Q3 - 2012 -- 7.888 mil

Q2 - 2012 -- 7.831 mil

Q1 - 2012 -- 6.539 mil

Q4 - 2011 -- 7.282 mil



But year over year revenue trends show the bigger picture of steady revenue growth -


2012 - 'over 30 mil'

2011 - 25 mil

2010 - 20.4 mil

2009 - 15.2 mil

[stockerzzz1]

4 New Kombucha Flavors Launched

Pomegranate Ginger
Coconut Water Lime
Passion Mango
Cabernet Grape

LOS ANGELES, CA -- (Marketwire) -- 02/27/13 -- Reed's, Inc. (NYSE MKT: REED), maker of the top-selling sodas in natural food stores nationwide, announced today that they have added four new flavors to their new Reed's Culture Club Kombucha line. The flavors are Pomegranate Ginger, Passion Mango Ginger, Cabernet and Coconut Water Lime.

Chris Reed, Founder, Chairman and CEO of Reed's Inc. stated, "We continue to have a great response to our initial four flavors of Kombucha. Many requests are coming in for more Kombucha flavors from retailers around the country. I consider our first flavors inspired, with nouveau flavor combinations like Hibiscus Grapefruit Ginger Kombucha. We felt compelled to try and out do the first four flavors in this new round of flavor development. Our new Coconut Water Lime Kombucha is the first marriage of the very fast growing coconut water and kombucha beverage categories. Our new Cabernet Kombucha was inspired by our customers telling us they were using our Kombucha as a wine substitute. In many of our new accounts we are emerging as the clear number two brand of Kombucha."

[DarkLady]

Starting to look interesting. I like the record revenues. The technicals are still negative, although the ADX has turned. Will watch closely, don't care about getting the bottom.

[Andy68]

REED has made it back on my watch list...it's at a tricky price though...

The hourly chart looks like a pincher play is setting up.

just my opinion,
Andy

[DarkLady]

smart, patience, wait for the technicals.

[Slojab]

Nothing. I'm fine with what I have at the moment.

[DarkLady]

OK, it's below there, what do you do now???

[Slojab]

LOL Yeah, yeah, yeah.

I was patient in waiting for it to come down to $4.50. Doesn't that count? ( :

[DarkLady]

see, patience.

[Slojab]

Ok, let's level off here, please. ( :

[Slojab]

My second nibble may not be for awhile.

[DarkLady]

I am looking at the weekly technicals, they look very poor at this point. I would wait, patience.

[Slojab]

I nibble to establish a longterm position.

I'm comfortable holding shares in the mid $4s.

Do you see it dropping below $4?

[DarkLady]

I would hold off until the technicals turn. Remember what one of the greatest traders of all time said. Bernard Baruch said, "I never bought at the low, or sold at the high".

[Slojab]

Ask went to $4.56.

Couldn't resist.

Hopefully, it doesn't drop below $4.00!

I won't buy below that.

[Trueheart]

Slo, are ya gonna pick up a few scraps at this price?

Trueheart

[Slojab]

Close enough. Time to nibble.

[Slojab]

Getting close to that $4.50 level.

[gfp927z]

>>> 8 Healthy Sodas


Sure, soda is unhealthy, but we all crave it now and again. These healthy sodas will give you a better bang for your buck.


BY EMILY MAIN


http://www.rodale.com/healthy-soda-0?cm_mmc=MSN-_-14%20Foods%20You%20Should%20Never%20Eat-_-Slideshow-_-8%20healthy%20sodas


We've said it before and will probably say it a hundred times more: Soda is toxic stuff. Not only is most of it full of diabetes-inducing high-fructose corn syrup, but drinking too much of the bubbly stuff has also been linked to an increased risk of heart attack and stroke. It contains genetically modified ingredients (GMOs) and phosphates, preservatives that have been linked to kidney disease and accelerated aging. Obviously, not something you want as part of a regular diet. But at some point, we all crave something fizzy, and that's no reason to reach for a toxic can of kidney-killing GMO water.

We looked high and low for healthy soda alternatives, free of the worst offenders in traditional sodas, such as GMOs or artificial caramel coloring that can be contaminated with carcinogens. Nor do any of our healthy sodas come bottled in cans, which are normally lined with hormone-disrupting bisphenol A. Some do contain cane sugar, a less-processed sugar that still should be consumed in moderation, and others are flavored with other sweeteners to avoid, but they're all far better alternatives to what's lurking in most soda cans. Next time a soda craving strikes, try one of these eight healthy sodas.


Steaz Sparkling Green Tea

Put down the Diet Coke! If you need an afternoon caffeine fix, grab a Steaz Green Tea soda instead. In addition to the fact that green tea is loaded with antioxidants, this no-cal soda alternative is sweetened with stevia and erythritol, a natural sugar alcohol. It's also fortified with vitamin B12, which helps improve your mood, your energy levels, and mental fog.

www.steaz.com


Reed's Light Extra Ginger Brew

Ginger ale, or ginger beer depending on who you're talking to, is a fantastic home remedy for nausea, upset stomachs, and even sore muscles, but 99 percent of what the big companies pass off as ginger ale contains tons of sugar and little to no real ginger. Not so with Reed's ginger brews, which contain the most ginger of any brand out there. And the company has just introduced a new "light" variety that, at just 55 calories per bottle, is sweetened with honey and stevia.


Virgil's Root Beer

Also from the purists at Reed's, Virgil's Root Beer is root beer made the way nature intended, by brewing a combination of herbs and spices naturally, rather than concocting a chemistry experiment of artificial flavorings, dyes, and additives. The ingredients list reads like the gatherings of a world traveler —anise from Spain, vanilla from Madagascar, molasses from the U.S., and balsam oil from Peru—and will get you off that artificial canned stuff forever. However, good as it is, this soda won't win you any favors with your waistline. At 160 calories per serving and 42 grams (g) of sugar, make it a weekly indulgence.


Bionade

This German brand may be hard to find, but it's worth it if you can get it. A naturally fermented drink made from malt and water, just like beer, this nonalcoholic soda has just 60 calories and 14 g of sugar per bottle, and it's certified organic. The sodas come in decidedly grown-up flavors like elderberry, lychee, ginger-orange, and herb, all invented by a former beer brewer. The sodas are so popular in Europe the company even rejected a takeover by Coca-Cola.

www.bionade.com


Oogave

Oogave is one of few certified-organic soda brands out there, and the line includes an honest-to-goodness organic cola alternative for people who love Coke or Pepsi. The company also has other cool flavors like strawberry-rhubarb and mandarin-key lime, the best organic alternative to Sprite or 7-Up. All the company's sodas contain half the sugar (24 g) that conventional sodas and other cane-sugar-sweetened sodas do. Plus, none of their products exceeds 100 calories per bottle.

www.thirstmonger.com


GT's Enlightened Organic Raw Kombucha

Not technically a soda, we had to throw in kombucha simply because it's so good and so good for you. Kombucha is tea that's been fermented with a probiotic culture, similar to the way vinegar is made, and the end product is low in sugar and full of healthy bacteria that aid digestion and even ward off infections. Fizzy like a soft drink, kombucha is much less sweet; these products contain just 4 g of sugar per bottle and only 60 calories. Try the slightly tart original kombucha or the fruitier citrus or ginger flavors.

www.synergydrinks.com


Hot Lips Soda

Made to "worship the magnificent fruits and berries" of the Pacific Northwest, this fruit soda is another winner, with the brand's lineup even changing with the seasons based on what's locally available—apples and pears in the fall and raspberries, blackberries, strawberries, and other berries in spring and summer. Some of the fruits are even organic. The company takes fruit, cooks it, adds water and cane sugar then bottles it, with much of the fiber-rich pulp intact, and carbonates it. Unlike a lot of so-called natural sodas, Hot Lips sodas contain organic lemon juice as a preservative, rather than ascorbic or citric acid, both of which can be derived from genetically modified corn and soy. For the healthiest Hot Lips drinks, grab the cranberry or pear sodas, neither of which has any added sugar.
Cranberry: 155 calories; Pear: 122 calories

www.hotlipssoda.com


Fizzy Lizzy

All Fizzy Lizzy sodas are nothing more than carbonated water combined with actual fruit juice, with a little vitamin C added for extra nutrition. The makers don't add sugar of any kind, so all the sugars in their sodas are naturally occurring. For the lowest-calorie options, go with the cranberry soda—just 100 calories per bottle and 22 g of sugars—or the grapefruit—also 100 calories with 25 g of sugar. Or give their award-winning pineapple soda a try, maybe mixed with some coconut water for a faux piña colada.

www.fizzylizzy.com


<<<

[Slojab]

A little of both.

I mainly just want a bagain price to get back in at.

[Andy68]

why $4.50

just wondering what your thoughts are on this? for technical reasons or fundamental?

good luck,
Andy

[Slojab]

Still waiting for $4.50 here.

[Andy68]

Did REED get overheated? Is it time to get back in?

I was hoping to get back in here at a resonable price, but the trend is not being my friend..

Andy

[Andy68]

I might re-enter soon. this is starting to look tempting.

Andy

[Slojab]

Later. The annual is due out 90 days from Dec 31.

Last year's came out Mar 26.

[up_and_down16]

When are the earnings supposed to be out on REED? Is it mid-Feb or later?

[stockerzzz1]

Long-term Target Price = $15

Seeking Alpha Article

"Our estimates assume Reed's is successful at expanding kombucha production. We also think the company's traditional drinks and private label brands will continue growing at their current rate. Start-up costs are likely to exert a drag on income, though. And while the manufacturing expansion will raise volume we estimate the kombucha line will grow in fits and starts as the technology is fine tuned. We estimate 2013 income (fully taxed) will advance to $.10 a share on sales of $40 million.

Once the scaling up is complete results could skyrocket. In 2-3 years sales could reach $75-$100 million to produce earnings of $.55-$.75 a share. Cash flow will be stronger than that due to the availability of extensive tax loss carryforwards. Reed's carries a fairly high debt load, so downside risk could be high in the event the kombucha line fails to develop. Losses could be substantial if problems arise, potentially requiring dilutive financing. If things pan out worthwhile appreciation could be realized. Applying a P/E multiple of 20x to the midpoint of our projected earnings range suggests a target price of $15 a share (+165%). Reed's could obtain an even higher valuation as an acquisition candidate. A large buyer theoretically could enhance margins and expand distribution."

[gfp927z]

Reeds -- >>> Reed's: New Age In Soft Drinks



January 14, 2013

by: Growth Stock Insider


http://seekingalpha.com/article/1111081-reed-s-new-age-in-soft-drinks?source=yahoo




Reed's (REED) is a leading producer of natural sodas for health conscious consumers. The company has built up a loyal following for its non-alcoholic Ginger Brews, which are brewed instead of being manufactured and are based on recipes that pre-date commercial soft drinks. Reed's also sells a line of natural root beer and natural cola through the same distribution channels. Those outlets are predominantly specialty gourmet and natural food stores like Whole Food Markets (WFM), Trader Joe's, and Sprouts. They additionally include mainstream supermarkets, retailers and restaurants. Organic growth is being maintained in the 10%-15% range as more consumers become familiar with the products. Total sales are expanding more rapidly as a result of the recent introduction of private label products for Whole Foods and other health food oriented supermarkets. Those are original recipes that Reed's invented to provide those stores with their own brewed offerings. They don't compete directly with the company's own line. That segment is gaining momentum as more products are introduced and existing customers expand the number of stores that carry them.

A new product offers huge potential. Kombucha is a fermented tea based drink that originally was developed 100 years ago in Russia and Germany. Despite evidence that suggested it provided a range of health benefits kombucha didn't gain popularity until the 1990s. A privately owned company, GT Dave, created the U.S. market with a social media marketing program that emphasized those health benefits. The primary topic was cancer prevention. Other claims included liver detoxification, arthritis prevention, high levels of antioxidants, and probiotic benefits. Ronald Reagan used kombucha to fight his cancer starting in 1987 and lived until 2004. He got the tip from Alexander Solzhenitsyn, who used it to battle his stomach cancer.

Kombucha has grown into a $300 million (retail) industry in the United States. GT Dave still controls 80%-90% of the market, perhaps more. Other drinks manufacturers have tried to enter the lucrative business but have had difficulty making the product correctly. Reed's appears to have solved the riddle, at least in small quantities. In June 2012 the company announced the introduction of four flavors. The official launch started in November. Production currently is limited by capacity constraints. Larger vats are slated for operation during the first half of 2013. Reed's additionally plans to add four more flavors during the first quarter. Distribution is ramping up at a brisk pace, although initial deliveries are relatively small and most of that will be sold at promotional pricing. The retail channel is anxious for Reed's to be successful in lifting output and providing an alternative to DL Dave's offering. The theory is that with two strong contenders the kombucha category will expand and become a mainstream product.

Our estimates assume Reed's is successful at expanding kombucha production. We also think the company's traditional drinks and private label brands will continue growing at their current rate. Start-up costs are likely to exert a drag on income, though. And while the manufacturing expansion will raise volume we estimate the kombucha line will grow in fits and starts as the technology is fine tuned. We estimate 2013 income (fully taxed) will advance to $.10 a share on sales of $40 million.

Once the scaling up is complete results could skyrocket. In 2-3 years sales could reach $75-$100 million to produce earnings of $.55-$.75 a share. Cash flow will be stronger than that due to the availability of extensive tax loss carryforwards. Reed's carries a fairly high debt load, so downside risk could be high in the event the kombucha line fails to develop. Losses could be substantial if problems arise, potentially requiring dilutive financing. If things pan out worthwhile appreciation could be realized. Applying a P/E multiple of 20x to the midpoint of our projected earnings range suggests a target price of $15 a share (+165%). Reed's could obtain an even higher valuation as an acquisition candidate. A large buyer theoretically could enhance margins and expand distribution.

These shares entail a higher than normal degree of risk - Limits are advised. Conservative investors are advised to wait either for a lower stock price or more evidence that the kombucha launch will prove successful. <<<




<<<

[DarkLady]

The weekly technicals are still negative, however the daily have started to turn. I would feel very comfortable putting on one third of a long position at this time. This is just MHO.

[Paulness]

It is up did you take a position ?

[DarkLady]

I don't see the positive technical change yet. As I have stated to avoid the fluff I trade using the weekly data. My key for this stock is to see it move above the 12/14 week ending high of 6.40. if it gjoes above that, Iwould take a position. On a weekly basis all the technicals I use are still negative.

[up_and_down16]

TA: DarkLady, slojab, anyone?

What's your take on REED now? It seems to have done some reparative work on the charts. Crossed over the 5 & 20 day EMA, RSI is trending up ~50 and MACD is turned up though still in negative territory. It might have a little tough time breaking through the 50 day EMA at 6.30.

The 50 day SMA is at 6.75 so it could go there before butting heads with it. Let me know what you guys think of it. Time to get back in again?

I know I am all over the place but looking for a good point to get back in.

[Andy68]

Happy new years all. I've been away for a while, and I am pleased to see REED now trading on AMEX. I was still waiting for a good point to get back in, and the chart isn't looking so great.

I was hoping to get back in below $5, but I don't think it's going to get there. I opened up a position at $5.8 not a bad price, so lets see where she goes. I will be adding on the dips.

good luck to all,
Andy

[Slojab]

I guess I stand corrected.

REED is now trading on the NYSE. Even with a 4 letter symbol.

It finished today at $5.68, up 1.61%

I requested the iHub quote feed be fixed.

[slapthatask2]

Sneaking back up:0)

[wreed61499]

The NYSEEuronext's NYSE MKT used to be called the American Stock Exchange(ASE) before it was bought out by the NYSE. So, yes, it is not the BIG Board, but, it is no longer on the NASDAQ either.

[stockerzzz1]

Thanks, and did you see...

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/12/19/ice-said-in-talks-to-merge-with-nyse-euronext/

[Slojab]

I couldn't explain it in terms that would be clear enough for me to understand easily, let alone expect anyone else to. ( :

Let's just say that it'll continue trading on the NASDAQ with the symbol REED. And not on the NYSE with a 3 digit symbol.

It will also be available for trading on the NYSE/Euronext platform, or possibly ARCA.

I gather there's a liquidity advantage but not sure if there's anything more to it than that.

Maybe someone here knows more about this than I do. In fact, I'm sure there is. ( :

[stockerzzz1]

Slojab -- Could you explain the difference?

I understand that they're separate, but could you just break it down?

So far I've found:

Wiki:

The NYSE is operated by NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX), which was formed by the NYSE's 2007 merger with the fully electronic stock exchange Euronext. The NYSE trading floor is located at 11 Wall Street and is composed of four rooms used for the facilitation of trading.

Nyx.com:

NYSE Euronext (NYX), a leading global operator of financial markets and a provider of innovative trading technologies, is the only exchange operator in the Fortune 500. With exchanges in the US and Europe, NYSE Euronext equities marketplaces represent one-third of equities trading worldwide. NYSE Euronext is also one of the world’s leading futures and options trading venues, with four markets based in the US and Europe offering derivatives on commodities, FX, equities, bonds, interest rates, indices and swaps. Its commercial technology division, NYSE Technologies provides best-in-class transaction, data, and infrastructure management services and solutions.

Wiki:

NYSE Euronext, Inc. (NYSE: NYX) is a Euro-American multinational financial services corporation that operates multiple securities exchanges, most notably New York Stock Exchange, Euronext and NYSE Arca (formerly known as ArcaEx). NYSE merged with Archipelago Holdings on March 7, 2006,[2] forming NYSE Group, Inc. On April 4, 2007, NYSE Group, Inc. merged with Euronext N.V. to form the first global equities exchange,[3] with its headquarters in Lower Manhattan, New York City, New York, United States.

Wiki:

The NYSE announced its plans to merge with Archipelago on April 21, 2005, in a deal intended to reorganize the NYSE as a publicly traded company. NYSE's governing board voted to merge with rival Archipelago on December 6, 2005, and become a for-profit, public company. It began trading under the name NYSE Group on March 8, 2006. A little over one year later, on April 4, 2007, the NYSE Group completed its merger with Euronext, the European combined stock market, thus forming the NYSE Euronext, the first transatlantic stock exchange.

[Slojab]

They're not moving to "the big board". That headline is misleading.

There's the NYSE and then there's the NYSE Euronext.

[up_and_down16]

Reeds to Move to NYSE
9:00a ET December 19, 2012 (Benzinga)
Reed's Inc. (NASDAQ: REED), maker of the top-selling sodas in natural food storesnationwide announced today the pending transfer of the listing of itscommon stock from the NASDAQ Global Market ("NASDAQ") to the NYSEEuronext's NYSE MKT ("NYSE MKT"). The Company expects to begintrading on the NYSE MKT on January 2, 2013. The Company's commonstock will continue to trade under the ticker symbol "REED."

Why move to NYSE? It is more expensive to be listed on the big board?