RandomBoy Says... (RNDM)

[BrianILCh1]

[RandomBoy]

Multiple decisions.

Do I buy or do i sell?
Do I do it now, or x minutes/points from now?
When do i close the position?

Many parameters.

Need dice.

[TREND1]

You can only buy or sell.
Why do you need all the out comes?

[RandomBoy]

A pair of Dice.

[TREND1]

RandomBoy
If I cut you open, what would I find?(g)

[jarsch501]

RandomBoy hasn't said much recently.

Has he taken a random vacation?

[RandomBoy]

RandomBoy says...

Short at 8547. Cover at 8470. Dump after 5 days.

[RandomBoy]

RandomBoy says...

Mondays are wonderful. Everyday is wonderful. Short at 8723. Cover at 8660. Dump after 2 days.

[RandomBoy]

RandomBoy says...

Inside the AntoJoffian windows speckles come from spackle. Tomorrow: short at 8765 cover at 8686.

So says RandomBoy.

[RandomBoy]

RandomBoy says...

The thong conforms to the body: the body does not conform to the thong. Do not conform: form.

So says RandomBoy.

[was Steve]

not when it involves a trend reversal.
steve

[RandomBoy]

RandomBoy says...

Fantasies are healthy.

[was Steve]

If the thong fits wear it (ggg)
steve

[RandomBoy]

RandomBoy says...

What is posted is traded. RandomBoy does not predict: RandomBoy chooses. If the universe cannot be bent by will, RandomBoy does not offer himself as a sacrificial lamb. If the mountain does not come to RandomBoy he RandomBoy creates a more amenable mountain.

When the answer is wrong: the question must be changed.

Tomorrow: long at 8595, sell at 8707, do not hold past 8 days.

[was Steve]

how is randomboy doing on his trades these days? Does he take them if desired entries are met?
steve

[RandomBoy]

RandomBoy says...

Everyday ends. Everyday is followed.

Count on it.

For the day that follows this day: buy at 8619, sell at 8731, but do not hold longer than three days.

The AntoJoffian is upon us.

[Chris McConnel]

>>> Remember: do not predict: choose. <<<

There's probably kernal of wisdom in that.

[RandomBoy]

RandomBoy says...

Tomorrow short at 8778, cover at 8656, hold no longer than 6 days as that will take it past the far edge of the Antojoffian window.

Remember: do not predict: choose.

[WinLoseOrDraw]

argh. well, you got better entry price than i did, so you're either going to make more or lose less. either way you've been here one trading day and you're already kicking my ass, lol.

[RandomBoy]

RandomBoy does not chase.

RandomBoy says...

Do not Predict: Choose.

Do not Hope: Decide.

[WinLoseOrDraw]

hey RandomBoy, what happens if it looks like the market won't give you your entry?

[was Steve]

not good (ggg).
steve

[RandomBoy]

RandomBoy says...

Calculate the probability Brittany is really a virgin.

[was Steve]

What does random boy like to do when the markets are closed? (ggg). Look forward to watching your experiment unfold.
steve

[Chris McConnel]

Taleb must have been refering to theoretical monkeys. :)

A random character generator would be closer to what he is describing.

Reminds a bit of the random poetry programs floating around.

[WinLoseOrDraw]

lol. point: counterpoint.

http://www.rart.com/principles/principles_of_rart.html

[Chris McConnel]

>> If you train a million monkeys to pound on a million typewriters for an infinite amount of time, one of them will write an exact duplicate of a Shakespeare sonnet. <<

A bizarre experiment by a group of students has found monkeys cannot write Shakespeare.

Lecturers and students from the University of Plymouth wanted to test the claim that an infinite number of monkeys given typewriters would create the works of The Bard.

A single computer was placed in a monkey enclosure at Paignton Zoo to monitor the literary output of six primates.

But after a month, the Sulawesi crested macaques had only succeeded in partially destroying the machine, using it as a lavatory, and mostly typing the letter "s".


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/devon/3013959.stm

[WinLoseOrDraw]

jacques derrida...

Monsters cannot be announced. One cannot say: 'here are our monsters', without immediately turning the monsters into pets.

[jarsch501]

Enjoyed the info I've read on the board and it has surely piqued my interest. I'll be watching the progress made intently as RandomBoy posts his information and we further our understanding of the markets to become a more complete trader.

I think we've entered the stock market matrix.......

[WinLoseOrDraw]

from a review of Taleb's book at amazon...

"Second, we forget the drop outs, and focus on the survivors. Taleb calls this the 'Survivor bias'. If you train a million monkeys to pound on a million typewriters for an infinite amount of time, one of them will write an exact duplicate of a Shakespeare sonnet. Still the 'surviving monkey' who produces a great sonnet has achieved this through pure luck.. The effort is entirely random. We are simply prone to attribute the 'one' monkey's success with skill, just because he was randomly chosen to have the winning lottery ticket.

"In financial markets, a flim-flam stock broker uses the survivor bias to make big bucks. He sends 5000 people a letter saying the market is going up, and 5000 a letter saying it will go down. A month later, the 5000 recipients of the 'correct' letter, get a second letter. Half get the up message, the other half get the down message. A month later, the 2500 recipients of the winning call get a third letter, 1250 up and 1250 down. The 1250 who have now gotten 3 correct calls in a row, receive solicitations and 200 invest in the broker's offshore fund. The flim-flam man disappears with a million dollars.

"Why do the 200 invest? They forget that surviving the test does not imply skill. They are fooled by randomness."

[WinLoseOrDraw]

i had a feeling you'd get something out of it, you're a pretty sharp cookie. your last sentence echoes Taleb, and while i don't know if his implementation is correct, i do believe his fundamental premise is very valid:

bet that nobody does know.

the trick, of course, is how. -g-

i wish i could fast forward a month so we had some of RandomMan's history as a baseline.

patience.

[exp]

great post about Taleb's work...this issue of randomness and its impact on individual trading results is very vexing imo with no clear statistical resolution...and the issue of the ever-present large risk in any type of assets...

very long term equity index buy and hold makes sense due to continued economic expansion over time...same for real estate where demographics also provides the upward push...

but short-term trading is a different story...is the success here due to one's ability to analyze market moves using math/stat?...or is it due to one's ability to "read" the minds of other investors better than most a bit like in poker?...maybe it's a non-quantifiable psychological insight that's responsible...assuming of course that it's not simply the fact that statistically one in a thousand coin tossers will get ten coin heads in a row...

nevertheless, t/a should be at least good enough to get above-market-average results...but is it good enough to get 100% a year on average for 30 years of short-term trading?...also, are derivatives (options) useful in enhancing one's results?...and does additional leverage (margin or futures) allow for higher returns?...

i really don't know...and i suspect that no one else does either...

george

[WinLoseOrDraw]

in that vein, if i may...

for those without the patience to read an entire book, here is a review that nails some essentials:

http://books.slashdot.org/books/03/02/20/0941245.shtml?tid=134&tid=98

an interesting profile:

http://www.gladwell.com/2002/2002_04_29_a_blowingup.htm

implications for trading:

http://www.gsm.uci.edu/~jorion/oc/ntaleb.htm

You're worse off relying on misleading information than on not having any information at all. If you give a pilot an altimeter that is sometimes defective he will crash the plane. Give him nothing and he will look out the window.

[RandomBoy]

RandomBoy says...

Learn.

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0674107462/o/qid%3D955047499/sr%3D8-1/103-8640501-5262219

Learn from Mistakes.

http://members.aol.com/joanshaft/handout3.html

Learn from Those Who Saw The Gulf But Could Not Leap

To have original, extraordinary, possibly even immortal ideas, it is sufficient to become so completely estranged from the world and things for a few moments that the most ordinary objects and events appear to be wholly new and unfamiliar, whereby their true nature is disclosed.
-- Schopenhauer

[Nocona]

Since nothing is known, everything is the same.

Since every day is like every other day, a position may open on any day. Since every position is like every other position, there is no reason to make them of different size. Since all positions have same likelihood of failure, a position can never be too small.

Discard your assumptions. Put your ear to the third rail of the subconscious universe and listen to the roar of chaos.

OBSERVATION: This seems like the way I have been investing. Buy or sell something and let the roar tell you when to hold and when to fold.

[RandomBoy]

RandomBoy says...

WLD is not the holder of the answers you seek.

RandomBoy has many secrets, but this you may know: RandomBoy understands that there truly is no spoon: there are no assumptions.

All flows from this.

Since nothing is known, everything is the same.

Since every day is like every other day, a position may open on any day. Since every position is like every other position, there is no reason to make them of different size. Since all positions have same likelihood of failure, a position can never be too small.

Discard your assumptions. Put your ear to the third rail of the subconscious universe and listen to the roar of chaos.

[exp]

wld, i am not at all clear on random boy assumptions...i'd like to see more detailed explanations with an example...also, can a new trade be opened every day and if so what % of portfolio is each trade? ...tia

[RandomBoy]

RandomBoy says...

RandomBoy fears neither competition nor comparison. The question is...

Do They?

So Asks RandomBoy.

[RandomBoy]

RandomBoy says...2/9/1.

only 6 days from the next AntoJoffian date. short dow at 8680, cover at 8594, but don't hold longer than 2 days.

[RandomBoy]

RandomBoy says...2/9/1.

only 6 days from the next AntoJoffian date. short dow at 8680, cover at 8594, but don't hold longer than 2 days.