QID - QLD TRENDS (fka )

[northam43]

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[northam43]

QID/QLD Cycle Update Report #15 (Northam43-WAVES)


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[northam43]

QID sell limit order at 18.65 CHANGED TO 18.46.

[northam43]

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[northam43]

QID/QLD Cycle Update Report #14 (Northam43-WAVES)

All in bold is what has changed from last report.

QID current cycles:

QID Daily Phase I, 8th Trading Day: Current price is 17.81 change of -.29. Today's high was 18.16 change of +.04. The lower trend line price is 18.62 change of -.19. 6th low of this cycle is at 17.65 change of -.31. Average lows per daily cycle is 4.55 Trading days. The current upper trend line price is 19.04 change of -.17. Current price is below the lower trend line. The average QID Daily Phase I cycle is 7 trading days. The last time QID Daily Phase I lasted 8 or more trading days was Feb 12, 2010. Today QID once again hit a new all time low.

QID Weekly Phase I, 4th Trading Week: Current price is below the lower trend line price of 19.11 change of -.05. The current cycle low is at 17.65 change of -.31. The average QID weekly Phase I cycle lasts 14 weeks. The last time Phase I lasted four weeks or more was August 2007. The current upper trend line price is 20.71 change of .00.

QID Monthly Phase I, 12th Trading Month: The current price is below the lower trend line price of 24.02 change of -.05. The current cycle low is 17.65. The upper trend line price is 29.66 change of .00. The average QID Monthly Phase I cycle lasts 9 months. The longest was 17 months from August 2006 to December 2007. So we could be 5 months or less from a QID long term bottom.

I currently have 6 QID positions at 18.11, 28.57, 31.90, 32.92, 34.12, and 35.75.

QLD current cycles:

QLD Daily Phase II, 17th Trading Day: Current price is 61.69 change of +.95. Cycle high is at 62.30 change of +1.07. Todays high was 62.30 change of +1.07. The average QLD Daily Phase II lasts 7 trading days. The last time QLD Daily Phase II had 17 or more trading days was July 02, 2009. The upper trend line price is 58.66 change of +.52. Current price is above the upper trend line.

QLD Weekly Phase II, 4th Trading Week: The average QLD Weekly Phase II lasts 11 weeks. The current QLD Weekly cycle high is 61.23 change of +.33. The upper trend line price is 58.52 change of +.18. The lower trend line price is 54.10 a change of .00. The last time Phase II lasted 4 weeks or more, was August 2007. The price is currently above the upper trend line.

QLD Monthly Phase II, 9th Trading Month: QLD Monthly Cycle high is 62.30. The average QLD Monthly Phase II lasts 13 months. The longest has been 16 months. So we could be 7 months or less from a major top. Currently the upper trend line price is 55.35 change of +.17. QLD price will have to fall below 55.35 and remain below that level for an entire month to start a new long term bear trend (at this point it would have to be two months).

I currently have one QLD positions at 68.50.

Conclusion: Today QLD made new cycle highs in the Daily, Weekly & Monthly time frames. QID made new cycle lows in the Daily, Weekly & Monthly time frames. QID made a new all time low today. To add to my QID position the weekly CCI(20) must be at or below -150. It is currently at -138.

[northam43]

Thanks for your input, always welcome here.

[mkendra]

tHANKS!

[northam43]

Trend1 - That was the most obvious answer you could give. Thanks for your honesty.

[northam43]

mkendra - Right now the upper trend line on the Daily chart is at 19.03 on the weekly it's at 20.28 and the monthly is 29.66. So I would expect the 19 level probably won't get hit until we get a major weekly trend change. Right now the weekly is trading well below the lower trend line price which is currently at 19.10. So your 19 level is well within reach.

Today the QID Daily cycle has exceeded it's norm of 7 trading days. So QID could be headed back towards the upper trend line any day now or this Daily cycle can continue longer. The record QID Daily cycle is 42 trading days.

[TREND1]

notham43
As for these questions below
I have no comments.
My only interest in POKERSAM is to see how he plots EWAVE
on the 30 minute chart
.
*************************************************************
Trend, why doesn't Pokersam publish a historical record of past trades and show the great profits that he has made for the world to see? Most reputable professional stock investment specialists do, that try and sell their product.

He claims he has a proven track record, where does one go to get the proof. Over what period of time does he have a proven track record, a day, a week, a month, a year, 5 years, 10 years?

He also says he has the ability to forecast a year, month, week, day, hour with "amazing accuracy". What is his definition of amazing accuracy? And where is this proof?

His website also says "I challenge you to put me to the test. Follow me for free and if you do not agree that my advice can make you money, cancel your free subscription and it will have cost you nothing. You have everything to gain and nothing to lose"

[TREND1]

Northam43
you asked
"So Trend, are you on the free subscription trial basis? "

Comment:
(1) I wanted to know about EWAVE so I paid both EWI
and POKERSAM
(2)EWI is $39/month
(3)POKERSAM is $20/month
(4) I am giving EWAVE every chance to work.
(5) Time Will Tell about EWAVE

[TREND1]

Northam43
My message about POKERSAM's trading got deleted.
So I am reposting you message here before I answer
*****************************************************
Trend1 - Have you been getting any private messages at Pokersam's website asking, maybe pleading, more like begging you to try and rescue him? Don't answer that Trend.

I remember I got a message or two from him. I believe it was at around the time you & JLS was questioning his calls. Wasn't that about the time you got banned from his site? Anyway, he wanted me to say some things I wasn't very comfortable with. I'm not saying he was wrong, just that I didn't have enough knowledge in the options world to be able to back him up, but I did. Things are not as cut and dry on his site. As per the statistics I maintain at my site, that is FREE. Of course I don't claim any spectacular gains, matter fact lately my performance has dropped off.

Trend, why doesn't Pokersam publish a historical record of past trades and show the great profits that he has made for the world to see? Most reputable professional stock investment specialists do, that try and sell their product.

He claims he has a proven track record, where does one go to get the proof. Over what period of time does he have a proven track record, a day, a week, a month, a year, 5 years, 10 years?

He also says he has the ability to forecast a year, month, week, day, hour with "amazing accuracy". What is his definition of amazing accuracy? And where is this proof?

His website also says "I challenge you to put me to the test. Follow me for free and if you do not agree that my advice can make you money, cancel your free subscription and it will have cost you nothing. You have everything to gain and nothing to lose"

So Trend, are you on the free subscription trial basis? How long does the free trial last? It seems he runs his website the same way he runs his I-Hub site. Inconsistently.

Now, he's playing the victim. Yep, poor Pokersam, he's right and we are all wrong. It seems someone else in this country has the same outlook "OBAMA".

[northam43]

QID sell limit order at 18.83 CHANGED TO 18.65.

[northam43]

mkendra - The reason I'm selling my QID at the lower trend line is, we are still at the present time in a BULL market. Therefore, Bear stocks even when the market is going down don't fair very well. When the market makes a long term trend change on my monthly chart, I will then revert back to the upper trend line for the QID.

Does this make sense. I have data that backs what I am saying up, here on this site if you read down.

I currently have 6 QID positions, I'm hoping when the next Long term Bear market kicks in, I will be profitable in those in the long term.

[mkendra]

Hmmm..........I'm expecting to sell higher - maybe 19 something. I'll let you know when I sell, or buy more.

[northam43]

QID/QLD Cycle Update Report #13 (Northam43-WAVES)

All in bold is what has changed from last report.

QID current cycles:

QID Daily Phase I, 7th Trading Day: Current price is 18.10 change of -.01. Today's high was 18.12 change of -.36. The lower trend line price is 18.81 change of -.17. 5th low of this cycle is at 17.96 change of -.10. Average lows per daily cycle is 4.52 Trading days. The current upper trend line price is 19.21 change of -.22. Current price is below the lower trend line. The average QID Daily Phase I cycle is 7 trading days. Today QID again hit a new all time low.

QID Weekly Phase I, 4th Trading Week: Current price is below the lower trend line price of 19.16 change of -.23. The current cycle low is at 17.96 change of -.10. The average QID weekly Phase I cycle lasts 14 weeks. The last time Phase I lasted four weeks or more was August 2007. The current upper trend line price is 20.71 change of .00.

QID Monthly Phase I, 12th Trading Month: The current price is below the lower trend line price of 24.07 change of -.02. The upper trend line price is 29.66 change of .00. The average QID Monthly Phase I cycle lasts 9 months. The longest was 17 months from August 2006 to December 2007. So we could be 5 months or less from a QID long term bottom.

I currently have 6 QID positions at 18.11, 28.57, 31.90, 32.92, 34.12, and 35.75.

QLD current cycles:

QLD Daily Phase II, 16th Trading Day: Current price is 60.74 change of -.01. Cycle high is at 61.23 change of +.33. Todays high was 61.23 change of +.33. The average QLD Daily Phase II lasts 7 trading days. The last time QLD Daily Phase II had more than 16 trading days was July 02, 2009. The upper trend line price is 58.66 change of +.52. Current price is above the upper trend line.

QLD Weekly Phase II, 4th Trading Week: The average QLD Weekly Phase II lasts 11 weeks. The current QLD Weekly cycle high is 61.23 change of +.33. The upper trend line price is 58.34 change of +.58. The lower trend line price is 54.10 a change of .00. The last time Phase II lasted 4 weeks or more, was August 2007. The price is currently above the upper trend line.

QLD Monthly Phase II, 9th Trading Month: The average QLD Monthly Phase II lasts 13 months. The longest has been 16 months. So we could be 7 months or less from a major top. Currently the upper trend line price is 55.18 change of +.06. QLD price will have to fall below 55.18 and remain below that level for an entire month to start a new long term bear trend (at this point it would have to be two months).

I currently have one QLD positions at 68.50.

Conclusion: Today QID hit another all time low of 17.96. QLD Daily has now been in Phase II for 16 trading days. I still expect QLD to pullback and, QID should hopefully have put in a short term bottom. I will be selling QID profitable positions at the Daily lower trend line.

[northam43]

QID sell limit order at 18.83


I have learned that being in a Bull market, you don't hang on to Bear stocks for long. I have set this sell price at the lower trend line price. However, I could take profits at a lower price.

[northam43]

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Cycle Data Sheets
Transaction Records
Trading Rules Updated

[northam43]

QID/QLD Cycle Update Report #12 (Northam43-WAVES)

All in bold is what has changed from last report.

QID current cycles:

QID Daily Phase I, 6th Trading Day: Current price is 18.11 change of -.56. Friday's high was 18.48 change of -.49. The lower trend line price is 18.98 change of -.19. 4th low of this cycle is at 18.06 change of -.55. Average lows per daily cycle is 4.52 Trading days. The current upper trend line price is 19.43 change of -.19. Current price is below the lower trend line. The average QID Daily Phase I cycle is 7 trading days. Friday, QID hit a new 52 week low as well as a new all time low.

QID Weekly Phase I, 3rd Trading Week: Current price is below the lower trend line price of 19.39 change of -.09. The current cycle low is at 18.06 change of -.55. The average QID weekly Phase I cycle lasts 14 weeks. The last time Phase I lasted four weeks or more was August 2007. The current upper trend line price is 20.71 change of .00.

QID Monthly Phase I, 12th Trading Month: The current price is below the lower trend line price of 24.09 change of -.09. The upper trend line price is 29.66 change of .00. The average QID Monthly Phase I cycle lasts 9 months. The longest was 17 months from August 2006 to December 2007. So we could be 5 months or less from a QID long term bottom.

I currently have 6 QID positions at 18.11, 28.57, 31.90, 32.92, 34.12, and 35.75.

QLD current cycles:

QLD Daily Phase II, 15th Trading Day: Current price is 60.75 change of +1.75. Cycle high is at 60.90 change of -1.71. Todays high was 60.90 change of -1.82. The average QLD Daily Phase II lasts 7 trading days. The last time QLD Daily Phase II had more than 15 trading days was July 02, 2009. The upper trend line price is 58.14 change of +.55. Current price is above the upper trend line.

QLD Weekly Phase II, 3rd Trading Week: The average QLD Weekly Phase II lasts 11 weeks. The current QLD Weekly cycle high is 60.90 change of -1.71. The upper trend line price is 57.76 change of +.29. The lower trend line price is 54.10 a change of .00. The last time Phase II lasted 4 weeks or more, was August 2007. The price is currently above the upper trend line.

QLD Monthly Phase II, 9th Trading Month: The average QLD Monthly Phase II lasts 13 months. The longest has been 16 months. So we could be 7 months or less from a major top. Currently the upper trend line price is 55.12 change of +.29. QLD price will have to fall below 55.12 and remain below that level for an entire month to start a new long term bear trend (at this point it would have to be two months).

I currently have one QLD positions at 68.50.

Conclusion: Friday QID hit an all time low of 18.06. QLD Daily has now been in Phase II for 15 trading days. I expect QLD to pullback, thusly QID should hopefully go up. That is why I bought QID at 18.11. Since I now have 6 positions of QID I will not hesitate to sell when profitable.

[mkendra]

My wife works as a consultant for (3) Financial planning company's.

There is a second wave of bank loans coming due mid-summer. They expect defaults.

They are getting prepared now.

Either way, at this price, IMO a good hedge.

Good Luck to Us!

[northam43]

I'm with ya! It may be California in June that causes the next major Bear Trend.

[mkendra]

Chart screams "oversold", too.

[mkendra]

ABSOLUTELY. Almost lowest this has ever been since it's inception. The economy ain't that swell yet. Rough roads ahead. I may average up.!

[northam43]

Mkendra - Good price! Only .03 from the new 52 week low.

So do ya think we make some money next week?

[mkendra]

I'M IN........18.09

[northam43]

QID buy limit order at 18.11 FILLED

[northam43]

QID buy limit order at 18.00 CHANGED TO 18.11

[northam43]

Based upon this information, I will only be buying QID when the averages have been met or are exceeded and will sell QID when it hits or crosses the lower trend line. This rule will be in effect during a Bull market. When a Bear market is confirmed I will then sell QID at the upper trend line.

Your constructive thoughts and feedback are always welcome.

[northam43]

For Your Information:


During the Bear Market from November 2007 to March 2009:

(Above the upper trend line)
QID - Phase II Trading Days = 193
QLD - Phase II Trading Days = 162

(Below the upper trend line)
QID - Phase I Trading Days = 204
QLD - Phase I Trading Days = 215


During the Bull Market from April 2009 to Present:

(Above the upper trend line)
QID - Phase II Trading Days = 70
QLD - Phase II Trading Days = 171

(Below the upper trend line)
QID - Phase I Trading Days = 178
QLD - Phase I Trading Days = 63

So in a Bear Market QLD still performs well compared to QID, however in a Bull Market QLD blows QID away. If this pattern continues QID price will be at or close to zero (unless a reverse split is declared) within a couple years, unless a new Bear market kicks in.

[northam43]

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[northam43]

QID buy limit order at 18.60 CHANGED TO 18.00

[northam43]

For Your Information:

Since July 2006:

QID has had 553 Trading Days in Phase I

QLD has had 383 Trading Days in Phase I


Bottom Line: That doesn't favor the PERMA BEAR.

[northam43]

QID/QLD Cycle Update Report #11 (Northam43-WAVES)

All in bold is what has changed from last report.

QID current cycles:

QID Daily Phase I, 5th Trading Day: Current price is 18.67 change of -.19. Today's high was 18.97 change of +.02. The lower trend line price is 19.17 change of -.11. 3rd low of this cycle is at 18.61 change of .00. Average lows per daily cycle is 4.48. The current upper trend line price is 19.62 change of -.12. Current price is below the lower trend line. The average QID Daily Phase I cycle is 7 trading days.

QID Weekly Phase I, 3rd Trading Week: Current price is below the lower trend line price of 19.48 change of .00. The current cycle low is at 18.61 change of .00. The average QID weekly Phase I cycle lasts 14 weeks. The last time Phase I lasted three weeks was August 11, 2008. The current upper trend line price is 20.71 change of .00.

QID Monthly Phase I, 12th Trading Month: The current price is below the lower trend line price of 24.18 change of .00. The upper trend line price is 29.66 change of .00. The average QID Monthly Phase I cycle lasts 9 months. The longest was 17 months from August 2006 to December 2007. So we could be 5 months or less from a QID long term bottom.

I currently have 5 QID positions at 28.57, 31.90, 32.92, 34.12, and 35.75.

QLD current cycles:

QLD Daily Phase II, 14th Trading Day: Current price is 59.00 change of +.58. Cycle high is at 59.19 change of .00. Todays high was 59.08 change of -.03. The average QLD Daily Phase II lasts 7 trading days. The last time QLD Daily Phase II had more than 14 trading days was January 11, 2010. The upper trend line price is 57.59 change of +.30. Current price is above the upper trend line.

QLD Weekly Phase II, 3rd Trading Week: The average QLD Weekly Phase II lasts 11 weeks. The current QLD Weekly cycle high is 59.19 change of .00. The upper trend line price is 57.47 change of .00. The lower trend line price is 54.10 a change of .00. The last time Phase II lasted 3 weeks, was November 2007 & June 2008. The price is currently above the upper trend line.

QLD Monthly Phase II, 9th Trading Month: The average QLD Monthly Phase II lasts 13 months. The longest has been 16 months. So we could be 7 months or less from a major top. Currently the upper trend line price is 54.83 change of .00. QLD price will have to fall below 54.83 and remain below that level for an entire month to start a new long term bear trend (at this point it would have to be two months).

I currently have one QLD positions at 68.50.

Conclusion: Today QID Daily again failed to get a new low and QLD Daily again failed to get a new high. Is a ST trend change in the works? or are we consolidating and preparing for new highs? We will have to wait and see. The Daily indicators for QID are even more oversold and for QLD are even more over bought. We are not at extreme levels at this point. Since I didn't get my QID buy order filled today at 18.60. I will change my buy price for tomorrow at the open to 18.00 unless the futures in the morning tell me to go lower.

[northam43]

QID buy limit order at 18.60

[northam43]

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[northam43]

QID/QLD Cycle Update Report #10 (Northam43-WAVES)

All in bold is what has changed from last report.

QID current cycles:

QID Daily Phase I, 4th Trading Day: Current price is 18.86 change of +.04. Today's high was 18.95 change of +.02. The lower trend line price is 19.28 change of -.13. 3rd low of this cycle is at 18.61 change of .00. Average lows per daily cycle is 4.48. The current upper trend line price is 19.74 change of -.17. Current price is below the lower trend line. The average QID Daily Phase I cycle is 7 trading days.

QID Weekly Phase I, 3rd Trading Week: Current price is below the lower trend line price of 19.48 change of .00. The current cycle low is at 18.61 change of .00. The average QID weekly Phase I cycle lasts 14 weeks. The last time Phase I lasted three weeks was August 11, 2008. The current upper trend line price is 20.71 change of .00.

QID Monthly Phase I, 12th Trading Month: The current price is below the lower trend line price of 24.18 change of .00. The upper trend line price is 29.66 change of .00. The average QID Monthly Phase I cycle lasts 9 months. The longest was 17 months from August 2006 to December 2007. So we could be 5 months or less from a QID long term bottom.

I currently have 5 QID positions at 28.57, 31.90, 32.92, 34.12, and 35.75.

QLD current cycles:

QLD Daily Phase II, 13th Trading Day: Current price is 58.42 change of -.11. Cycle high is at 59.19 change of .00. Todays high was 59.11 change of -.08. The average QLD Daily Phase II lasts 7 trading days. The last time QLD Daily Phase II had more than 13 trading days was January 11, 2010. The upper trend line price is 57.29 change of +.37. Current price is above the upper trend line. Sold QLD 57.07 position at 58.25.

QLD Weekly Phase II, 3rd Trading Week: The average QLD Weekly Phase II lasts 11 weeks. The current QLD Weekly cycle high is 59.19 change of .00. The upper trend line price is 57.47 change of .00. The lower trend line price is 54.10 a change of .00. The last time Phase II lasted 3 weeks, was November 2007 & June 2008. The price is currently above the upper trend line.

QLD Monthly Phase II, 9th Trading Month: The average QLD Monthly Phase II lasts 13 months. The longest has been 16 months. So we could be 7 months or less from a major top. Currently the upper trend line price is 54.83 change of .00. QLD price will have to fall below 54.83 and remain below that level for an entire month to start a new long term bear trend (at this point it would have to be two months).

I currently have one QLD positions at 68.50.

Conclusion: Today QID Daily failed to get a new low and QLD Daily failed to get a new high. Is a ST trend change in the works? We will have to wait and see. The Daily indicators for QID show oversold and for QLD show over bought. The indicators point to a Daily cycle change.

[TREND1]

SOLD QLD

[northam43]

QLD sell limit order at 58.25 FILLED

[northam43]

QLD sell limit order at 58.25

[northam43]

QLD Daily EMA 3 is now at 58.35 That is my current line in the sand. If QLD drops below that level I will sell all profitable positions. Otherwise I will continue to hold until a position has gained 10%.

QID low today so far is 18.63. The current cycle low is 18.61. If a new cycle low is made today it would be the 4th cycle low, which is the average lows for a QID Daily cycle. So if QID price drops below 18.61. I will be adding to my QID position at the close of the day. The only exception to that is if the price climbed and closed above the QID Daily EMA 3 level.

[northam43]

QID/QLD Cycle Update Report #9 (Northam43-WAVES)

All in bold is what has changed from last report.

QID current cycles:

QID Daily Phase I, 3rd Trading Day: Current price is 18.82 change of -.16. Today's high was 18.93 change of -.45. The lower trend line price is 19.41 change of -.16. 3rd low of this cycle is at 18.61 change of -.29. Average lows per daily cycle is 4.48. The current upper trend line price is 19.91 change of -.19. Current price is below the lower trend line. The average QID Daily Phase I cycle is 7 trading days.

QID Weekly Phase I, 3rd Trading Week: Current price is below the lower trend line price of 19.48 change of -.05. The current cycle low is at 18.61 change of -.29. The average QID weekly Phase I cycle lasts 14 weeks. The last time Phase I lasted three weeks was August 11, 2008. The current upper trend line price is 20.71 change of .00.

QID Monthly Phase I, 12th Trading Month: The current price is below the lower trend line price of 24.18 change of -.04. The upper trend line price is 29.66 change of .00. The average QID Monthly Phase I cycle lasts 9 months. The longest was 17 months from August 2006 to December 2007. So we could be 5 months or less from a QID long term bottom.

I currently have 5 QID positions at 28.57, 31.90, 32.92, 34.12, and 35.75.

QLD current cycles:

QLD Daily Phase II, 12th Trading Day: Current price is 58.53 change of +.41. Cycle high is at 59.19 change of +.90. Todays high was 59.19 change of +.90. The average QLD Daily Phase II lasts 7 trading days. The last time QLD Daily Phase II had more than 12 trading days was January 11, 2010. The upper trend line price is 56.92 change of +.45. Current price is above the upper trend line.

QLD Weekly Phase II, 3rd Trading Week: The average QLD Weekly Phase II lasts 11 weeks. The current QLD Weekly cycle high is 59.19 change of +.90. The upper trend line price is 57.47 change of +.15. The lower trend line price is 54.10 a change of .00. The last time Phase II lasted 3 weeks, was November 2007 & June 2008. The price is currently above the upper trend line.

QLD Monthly Phase II, 9th Trading Month: The average QLD Monthly Phase II lasts 13 months. The longest has been 16 months. So we could be 7 months or less from a major top. Currently the upper trend line price is 54.83 change of +.15. QLD price will have to fall below 54.83 and remain below that level for an entire month to start a new long term bear trend (at this point it would have to be two months).

I currently have two QLD positions at 57.07 and 68.50.

Conclusion: QID Daily cycle is still below it's average, whereas the QLD Daily is above it's norm. Right now it's pretty much the Weekly cycles that is driving the train. QID weekly could last 11 more weeks, the QLD weekly could last 8 more weeks. When the weekly cycles complete, the Monthly cycles may then be close to a major bottom/top. Right now the game plan is to hold QLD if QLD hits or goes below the QLD Daily EMA 3 (57.84)I will sell the 57.07 position. If QID makes a new low tomorrow I will probably add a new position.

[northam43]

For Your Information:

QLD Monthly Cycle Data:

QLD has had two complete monthly cycles:

-August 2006 to December 2007, Cycle low: 62.80 Cycle High: 122.75 Difference of: 59.95

-January 2008 to Present, Cycle low: 19.46 Cycle High: 61.70 Difference: 42.24


QLD is closing in on a new high for this cycle.

[northam43]

QID/QLD Cycle Update Report #8 (Northam43-WAVES)

All in bold is what has changed from last report.

QID current cycles:

QID Daily Phase I, 2nd Trading Day: Current price is 18.98 change of -.50. Today's high was 19.38 change of -.48. The lower trend line price is 19.57 change of -.13. 2nd low of this cycle is at 18.90 change of -.56. Average lows per daily cycle is 4.48. The current upper trend line price is 20.10 change of -.15. Current price is below the lower trend line. The average QID Daily Phase I cycle is 7 trading days.

QID Weekly Phase I, 3rd Trading Week: Current price is below the lower trend line price of 19.53 change of -.13. The current cycle low is at 18.90 change of -.41. The average QID weekly Phase I cycle lasts 14 weeks. The last time Phase I lasted three weeks was August 11, 2008. The current upper trend line price is 20.71 change of -.26.

QID Monthly Phase I, 12th Trading Month: The current price is below the lower trend line price of 24.22 change of -1.07. The upper trend line price is 29.66 change of -2.06. The average QID Monthly Phase I cycle lasts 9 months. The longest was 17 months from August 2006 to December 2007. So we could be 5 months or less from a QID long term bottom.

I currently have 5 QID positions at 28.57, 31.90, 32.92, 34.12, and 35.75.

QLD current cycles:

QLD Daily Phase II, 11th Trading Day: Current price is 58.12 change of +1.46. Cycle high is at 58.29 change of +1.09. Todays high was 58.29 change of +1.61. The average QLD Daily Phase II lasts 7 trading days. The last time QLD Daily Phase II had more than 11 trading days was January 11, 2010. The upper trend line price is 56.47 change of +.36. Current price is above the upper trend line.

QLD Weekly Phase II, 3rd Trading Week: The average QLD Weekly Phase II lasts 11 weeks. The current QLD Weekly cycle high is 58.29 change of +1.09. The upper trend line price is 57.32 change of +.19. The lower trend line price is 54.10 a change of +.56. The last time Phase II lasted 3 weeks, was November 2007 & June 2008. The price is currently above the upper trend line.

QLD Monthly Phase II, 9th Trading Month: The average QLD Monthly Phase II lasts 13 months. The longest has been 16 months. So we could be 7 months or less from a major top. Currently the upper trend line price is 54.68 change of +.72. QLD price will have to fall below 54.68 and remain below that level for an entire month to start a new long term bear trend (at this point it would have to be two months).

I currently have two QLD positions at 57.07 and 68.50.

Conclusion: Since QID daily Phase I has just completed it's 2nd trading day and the average Phase I cycle normally lasts about 7 trading days, I would assume that there maybe more upside for QLD. QLD Daily Phase II is now passed it's norm, but no where near a record. QLD Weekly Phase II will continue for atleast another week as it is currently above the upper trend line price level. I will continue to hold my QLD positions. The next possible buy for QID at this point will be when it hits the 4th cycle low which would more than likely be a new 52 week low.

[northam43]

CYCLE UPDATE:

QLD Weekly Phase II is officially in it's 3rd week, this morning the price has climbed above the upper trend line. The average QLD Phase II Cycle is 10 weeks. Since I currently have only two QLD positions, I will continue to hold them for now.

QID Daily Phase I has set a new low today. This is the 2nd low of this cycle. The Average lows in a QID Daily cycle is 4. So I may possibly add to my QID position this week if two more days of lows occur. QID is also approaching a 52 week low.

[northam43]

Website Updated:

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QID Daily Cycle Chart
All Data Sheets

[northam43]

QID/QLD Cycle Update Report #7 (Northam43-WAVES)

All in bold is what has changed from last report.

QID current cycles:

QID Daily Phase I, 1st Trading Day: Current price is 19.48 change of -.19. Today's high was 19.86 change of -.50. The lower trend line price is 19.70 change of -.05. 1st low of this cycle is at 19.46 change of .00. Average lows per daily cycle is 4.48. The current upper trend line price is 20.25 change of -.07. Current price is below the lower trend line. The average QID Daily Phase I cycle is 7 trading days.

QID Weekly Phase I, 2nd Trading Week: Current price is below the lower trend line price of 19.66 change of -.01. The current cycle low remains at 19.31. The average QID weekly Phase I cycle lasts 14 weeks. The last time Phase I lasted three weeks was August 11, 2008. The current upper trend line price is 20.97 change of .00.

QID Monthly Phase I, 11th Trading Month: The current price is below the lower trend line price of 25.29 change of .00. The upper trend line price is 31.72 change of .00. The average QID Monthly Phase I cycle lasts 9 months. The longest was 17 months from August 2006 to December 2007. So we could be 6 months or less from a QID long term bottom.

I currently have 5 QID positions at 28.57, 31.90, 32.92, 34.12, and 35.75.

QLD current cycles:

QLD Daily Phase II, 10th Trading Day: Current price is 56.66 change of +.55. Cycle high is at 57.20 change of .00. Todays high was 56.68 change of +.40. The average QLD Daily Phase II lasts 7 trading days. The last time QLD Daily Phase II had more than 10 trading days was January 11, 2010. The upper trend line price is 56.11 change of +.12. Current price is above the upper trend line.

QLD Weekly Phase II, 2nd Trading Week: The average QLD Weekly Phase II lasts 10 weeks. The current QLD Weekly cycle high is 57.20 change of .00. The upper trend line price is 57.13 change of .00. The lower trend line price is 53.54. The last time Phase II lasted 3 weeks, was November 2007 & June 2008. The price is currently below the upper trend line. For Phase II to end the price must not exceed the upper trend line and must close on Friday, March 5th, 2010 below the upper trend line.

QLD Monthly Phase II, 8th Trading Month: The average QLD Monthly Phase II lasts 12 months. The longest has been 16 months. So we could be 8 months or less from a major top. Currently the upper trend line price is 53.96 change of .00. So QLD price will have to fall below 53.96 and remain below that level for an entire month to start a new long term bear trend.

I currently have two QLD positions at 57.07 and 68.50.

Conclusion: Since QID daily justed started a new Phase I, it would indicated that there is more than likely more upside for QLD. However, of the 75 QID Daily Phase I Cycles, 15 of them have lasted only one trading day. Of those 15, three of them had greater than 10 trading days in Phase II. The question right now is will QLD Weekly Phase II continue? QLD will have to reach the 57.13 price level by Friday for that to happen that is .47 away. QLD Monthly Phase II will remain for atleast another month and the same holds true for QID Monthly Phase I. So for the next month no change in the long term trend is indicated. The next buy for QID at this point will be when it hits the 4th cycle low which would more than likely be a new 52 week low.

[northam43]

QID/QLD Cycle Update Report #6 (Northam43-WAVES)

All in bold is what has changed from last report.

QID current cycles:

QID Daily Phase II, 1st Trading Day: Current price is 19.67 change of -.01. Today's high was 20.36. The lower trend line current price is 19.75 change of -.03. 5th low of this cycle is at 19.31 change of .00. Average lows per daily cycle is 4.51. The current upper trend line price is 20.32 change of .00. Current price is now below the lower trend line. The average QID Daily Phase I cycle is 7 trading days. Today QID Daily went into Phase II, then dropped below the lower trend line. QID 19.47 position was sold at 20.35. Tomorrow it will more than likely start a new Phase I cycle.

QID Weekly Phase I, 2nd Trading Week: Current price is at the lower trend line price of 19.67 change of +.01. The current cycle low remains at 19.31. The average QID weekly Phase I cycle lasts 14 weeks. The last time Phase I lasted two weeks was December 3, 2007. The current upper trend line price is 20.97 change of +.01.

QID Monthly Phase I, 11th Trading Month: The current price is below the lower trend line price of 25.29 change of .00. The upper trend line price is 31.72 change of .00. The average QID Monthly Phase I cycle lasts 9 months. The longest was 17 months from August 2006 to December 2007. So we could be 6 months or less from a QID long term bottom.

I currently have 5 QID positions at 28.57, 31.90, 32.92, 34.12, and 35.75.

QLD current cycles:

QLD Daily Phase II, 9th Trading Day: Current price is 56.15 change of +.07. Cycle high is at 57.20 change of .00. Todays high was 56.28 change of -.23. The average QLD Daily Phase II lasts 7 trading days. The last time QLD Daily Phase II had more than 9 trading days was January 11, 2010. The upper trend line price is 55.99 change of +.06. Current price is above the upper trend line.

QLD Weekly Phase II, 2nd Trading Week: The average QLD Weekly Phase II lasts 10 weeks. The current QLD Weekly cycle high is 57.20 change of .00. The upper trend line price is 57.13 change of .00. The lower trend line price is 53.54. The shortest Phase II period has been 2 weeks, they occured Jan & Feb 2007. The price is currently below the upper trend line.

QLD Monthly Phase II, 8th Trading Month: The average QLD Monthly Phase II lasts 12 months. The longest has been 16 months. So we could be 8 months or less from a major top. Currently the upper trend line price is 53.96 change of .00. So QLD price will have to fall below 53.96 and remain below that level for an entire month to start a new long term bear trend.

I currently have two QLD positions at 57.07 and 68.50.

Conclusion: Today we seen QID Daily Phase I go into Phase II and then drop below the lower trend line. What a swing. It worked out well with a sell of the QID 19.47 position. The QLD Daily closed above the upper trend line. So at this point it looks like QLD Daily Phase II will continue. However, QLD Weekly Phase II price is still below the upper trend line, however since QLD Daily is in Phase II it's possible we may see new highs of this cycle. What will tomorrow bring. Hopefully it will clear up the ST & MT direction of the market.

[TREND1]

smartone
You better do some study on 1X, 2X and 3X QQQQ
Why ?
Because the holding period is very important.
Why?
Because if you hold both TQQQ and SQQQ too long
you may actually lose money on both.

How can that be ?

Well as soon as you trade one of them
you will get a very large 8 by 11 book
and it will explain in detail.

PS: Make sure you read it

[northam43]

Smartone - Your probably right. However, the price for QID/QLD is alot cheaper than TQQQQ & SQQQQ. So it would depend on the size of your portfolio, you don't want to put all your eggs in one basket.

Also I could almost buy 4 positions of QID verse one position of SQQQQ which if you average down the profits could be alot more.

Today TQQQQ was only up .06 and QLD was up .07(Plus QLD is cheaper)

[smartone]

sure now easier fills
it just seems inevitable that those using QID and QLD will move toward TQQQ SQQQ

more bang for buck