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Fireworks in XCHO, the Asks went poof, .27 ask and last now.
It appers .21 ask was hit for 50,000 and the other asks were then oulled.
Any thoghts?
See no news
Two XCHO observations, patient buyer is winning, and just now got competition. There were folks that said they would buy roughly at break of .22. It gapped thru that. I tended to think they would have to pay up, which was true for a while.
If getting about 150,000 was their objective they won. That much has now traded in .225-.24 area, although it took over a week.
Just now some competition came in. a 10,000 bid at .226 upped over 5,000 at .225 in spite of bad stk mkt today. So just guessing, but looks like 2 buyers now.
Guess what we need? Yep 3 or 4 buyers. With the RedChip report circulating that is not unreasonable. They will see each other then we can have some fun.
If know folks that would like XCHO, here is a generic summation on the company, ad videos and RedChip report below. Please do spread it around.
XCHO, RedChip 350% 2011 and 20 bagger 2015 at 15 P/E.
Quite the week for XCHO with RedChip Report and TV ad campaign PR. XCHO introduced Cobroxin a new OTC pain med that is on the shelf at CVS, Walgreens and many others. XCHO is a profitable fully reporting NASDAQ BB stock.
XCHO (Xenacare) TV Ad Video Link, 2500 Ads including CNBC, FOX, and CNN
In case anyone hasn't seen the commercials, here they are:
i am, good day today on crxx
Cobroxin Ad run times
Called the company, they do not get exact times before the runs, just the days. This is the case from my experience with TV ads. Unless you run an infocommercial they fit them in on the fly.
But they do get confirmation after the fact. We have just not been lucky enough to see them yet.
Here are some confirms:
Cobroxin 115862 1 CNBC CCY CCY N 2911002 Cobroxin 30 Pain Relief 26-Jul 6:51:00 Mon
P29110 Cobroxin 115862 1 Lifetime CCY TOR2 N 2911002 Cobroxin 60 Pain Relief 26-Jul 7:33:00 Mon
P29110 Cobroxin 115862 1 ESPN TOR TORD N 2911002 Cobroxin 30 Pain Relief 26-Jul 8:19:00 Mon
P29110 Cobroxin 115862 1 Travel NWP CCY N 2911002 Cobroxin 30 Pain Relief 26-Jul 9:14:00 Mon
P29110 Cobroxin 115862 1 History TOR CCY N 2911002 Cobroxin 60 Pain Relief 26-Jul 9:22:00 Mon
P29110 Cobroxin 115862 1 Lifetime NEP CCY N 2911002 Cobroxin 30 Pain Relief 26-Jul 16:27:00 Mon
P29110 Cobroxin 115862 1 Fox Sports Net NWP CCY N 2911002 Cobroxin 60 Pain Relief 26-Jul 15:27:00 Mon
P29110 Cobroxin 115862 1 Discovery TOR2 CCY N 2911002 Cobroxin 60 Pain Relief 27-Jul 6:14:00 Tue
P29110 Cobroxin 115862 1 CNBC NEP CCY N 2911002 Cobroxin 60 Pain Relief 27-Jul 9:22:00 Tue
P29110 Cobroxin 115862 1 Fox Sports Net CCY CCY N 2911002 Cobroxin 60 Pain Relief 27-Jul 16:22:00 Tue
P29110 Cobroxin 115862 1 Head Line News CCY CCY N 2911002 Cobroxin 30 Pain Relief 27-Jul 16:33:00 Tue
P29110 Cobroxin 115862 1 Comedy NWP CCY N 2911002 Cobroxin 30 Pain Relief 27-Jul 22:14:00 Tue
P29110 Cobroxin 115862 1 USA NWP CCY N 2911002 Cobroxin 60 Pain Relief 27-Jul 22:54:00 Tue
P29110 Cobroxin 115862 1 Home & Garden CCY CCY N 2911002 Cobroxin 60 Pain Relief 27-Jul 23:12:00 Tue
P29110 Cobroxin 115862 1 Travel CCY CCY N 2911002 Cobroxin 60 Pain Relief 28-Jul 7:07:00 Wed
P29110 Cobroxin 115862 1 Lifetime CCY CCY N 2911002 Cobroxin 60 Pain Relief 28-Jul 7:35:00 Wed
They only missed by a penny on earnings but were extremely conservative in forward guidance for the rest of 2010, assuming no earnings from Vivimo (it's already in some pharmacies) and no Euro approval in 2010 either (another $25 mil milestone payment).
If their dour outlook comes true it's dead money for another 6 months.....
Seeing Bottoming action in several value stocks
Here is a chart that the symbols can be typed into: http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=tbv
XCHO has closed its gap up and is showing accumulation of CMF (see chart) The .24 bid for 5,000 has been hit for 25,000 and is still there.
TBV, yesterday was a good reversal, check CMF especially on that one.
TGA has put several of my fav 2 day pattern, engulfing the real today of prior day. They have greatly enhanced the value of stock with two new successful oil fields in Egypt.
CDE in process of doing my fav 2 day, purely a chart call.
AUY is maybe the best value in gold stock with very low cost of production, looks like bottom and almost my fav 2 day today.
BTW my fav 2 day is very rare, and stock can go months without one.
Cheers
Correct Free Quotes on XCH0 beware of most quotes like Fidelity which can be off by 20%
http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/xcho/quote is correct and even level2 like. About 5% of time it is not as tight as real bid/ask, 95% of time right on.
On other hand Schwab and Fidelity can be way off. Fidelity is .22b .275a right now, real is .24b .25b.
Because of RedChip we are getting new eyes on XCHO, hence need to get this correct spread out there, 25% spreads (not true) scare people away.
BTW XCHO can not solve the problem, its the MMs fault not letting some brokers see their best b+a.
POZN dropped on profitible Q news.
Have seen some PRs today saying it was guidence. Any thoughts STS or others? I bot a small position tpday after exit on swing trade a couple of days ago.
STS, would suggest called Xenacare about the Cor and other products, and if you can be kind enough let us know.
When it comes to sales for XCHO, Cobroxin is the 400 pound gorilla.
AKRX Revised 2010 Outlook
* The Company projects 2010 revenue in the range of $76.0 million to $80.0 million. Core business revenue is projected in the range of $71.0 million to $75.0 million in 2010, a 59% to 67% increase over 2009.
* The 2010 gross margin for the Company’s core business is projected to be between 45% and 48%.
* The Company projects 2010 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $13.0 million to $16.0 million compared with a negative $4.2 million adjusted EBITDA in 2009, and up from the prior guidance range of $10.0 million to $13.0 million.
* In 2010, the Company expects to spend approximately $4.0 million on base capital expenditures compared with $1.1 million in 2009. Additionally, the Company plans to make strategic investments of approximately $5.0 million in 2010 to increase its plant capacities.
* The Company is projecting 2010 R&D expenses of approximately $8.0 to $9.0 million versus $4.8 million in 2009.
* The Company’s 2010 outlook includes the partial year impact of all 2010 product approvals through August 2, 2010. It excludes the impact of any approvals after August 2, 2010.
Akorn’s R&D Pipeline
The Company’s pipeline includes 9 ANDAs filed with the FDA with an annual market size of approximately $1.2 billion. Akorn expects to file an additional 7 ANDAs in 2010 with an estimated annual market size of $1.2 billion and 24 ANDAs in 2011 with an annual market size of approximately $4.5 billion. Additionally, there are 7 ANDAs filed with the FDA through the Akorn-Strides, LLC joint venture.
Never mind, google it and it appears ZenaCor is just a VERY expensive for of pantethine, which I've been taking for several years already. I buy it from Vitacost at 1/4 the price!
What this "XenaCor, which lowers serum cholesterol, C-reactive protein, and homocysteine levels designed to support cardiovascular health; XenaTri for lowering triglycerides and raising HDL to support cardiovascular health" stuff they mention?
Old news or potential real products? I could benefit from both of them if they're real, but have never heard of either.
XCHO, demand came in from multiple MMs on bid.
Earlier ther was just 5,000 bid at .225, then near end ther were 3 bids at .24 and 20,000 on Bid we could see. Looks like some new buyers coming in, which is what we are looking for.
Cheers
http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/drugsatfda/index.cfm?CFID=47228756&CFTOKEN=8358ac76f83efc51-344CC12D-FF7C-6EE5-69E65B5D9ECF7FBC
Link for AKRX for the fda approval , no pr yet on this
Their financials are tommorow morning before market opens. They are supposed to be good. The stock is pushing further and trying to close at HOD and is making new highs daily.
XCHO closed the gap. Did not see it was away form PC but looks like tiny volume, then back to unchanged. Maybe someone did it on purpose.
Glad in a way that gap is gone, although it held for days.
Cheers
Brock, I bit some of the financials, and like the fact they have multiple drugs that seem to be making them revenue, but still Yahoo says they have earnings already.
Last Q was a big profit according to Yahoo and Fidelity says 20 p/e.
I still do not know the company, how do you expain both yahoo and fid saying they have a P/E already?
Im in CRXX ! This earnings on August 8, 2010 , they will be positive in over 2.5 years , looks promising , I am holding at the moment.
In addition , I am in AKRX as well for earnings for tommorow
AKRX , FDA APPROVED PR YET TO BE POSTED
GAPPER TOMMOROW , EARNINGS COME OUT IN THE MORNING POSITIVE EARNINGS
Suffering From Arthritis Pain? Try XenaCare’s Cobra Venom
Just found this goggling pain meds
http://blog.redchip.com/
July 30th, 2010
Suffering From Arthritis Pain? Try XenaCare’s Cobra Venom
In 2002, a man named Joe de Casa was working in his Northamptonshire garden in England when an adder snake suddenly jumped out and bit him in the hand. Luckily, he survived the bite. Like many seniors, at 61, Joe had been a sufferer of severe arthritis for many years in his wrists and fingers, and in the months following the snake bite, he claimed that he experienced the only pain free days in years. “I would quite like to find another snake and invite him to bite me. I am not suggesting that it cures arthritis, but it could possibly have anti-inflammatory properties,” Mr. De Casa said. Each year, thousands of people across the globe die from poisonous snakebites. Who would have guessed that scientists and researchers would one day isolate beneficial components from otherwise deadly venom for use in medical applications? Yet eight years after Joe de Casa’s surprising discovery, scientists have developed an over-the-counter pain reliever derived from cobra venom under the brand-name Cobroxin™.
XenaCare Holdings, Inc.(OTCBB: XCHO), a company specializing in the branding, marketing and retail distribution of consumer healthcare products, recently launched a large-scale advertising campaign for Cobroxin, the company’s primary product. Cobroxin is the first OTC pain reliever proven to treat moderate to severe chronic pain, any discomfort severe enough to interfere with work and sleep. Many other drugs in this category, like Vicodin and Percocet, require prescriptions. Cobroxin works by a different mechanism than that of the usual over-the-counter pain-relieving drugs such as Tylenol or Advil, or opioids, such as Vicodin, OxyContin, or morphine. XenaCare is positioning Cobroxin as a unique alternative for individuals who cannot tolerate or are not getting relief from OTC medicines and who would like to avoid the side effects of opioids. A few of the characteristics that make Cobroxin superior to opiate drugs are that it is all natural, non-addictive, non-narcotic, and long-lasting.
The drug is currently available as an oral spray for treating migraine headaches, neck aches, shoulder pain, cramps, lower back pain, and neuralgia. It is also available as a topical gel for treating joint pain and pain associated with repetitive stress and arthritis.
XenaCare has reached sales agreements with a number of drug store and food market chains, including such major companies as Walgreens, CVS, Winn-Dixie, Publix, RiteAid, Duane Reade, and Meijer. The company expects widening distribution and heavier advertising to accelerate growth in the second half of 2010.
Cobra venom may also be effective as an anti-aging agent, studies show, since it appears to inhibit collagen breakdown. With more research somebody could possibly make a lot of money off this idea!
Disclosure: The subject security is a client of RedChip Companies, Inc. RedChip Companies, Inc., employees and affiliates may have positions and affect transactions in the securities or options of the issuers mentioned herein. For full financial disclosures for all RedChip clients, please visit http://www.redchip.com/disclosures.asp?src=rcv.
Brock, crxx seems already profitable?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=CRXX+Income+Statement&annual
can you explain the big jump in sales last Q?
it looks promising, but its a new stock to me.
Have a look , and see what you can find and let me know but im in at 1.54
Thanks Brock, good to have input on CRXX a company I am not familiar with yet.
CRXX is a pain med company
CRXX will post positive earnings firs time in 2.5 years on 8/10
3 day SMA has crossed the 50 day SMA- Very bullish
Moving Average Price Compare
CRXX is trading above its 13 day moving average. This is considered to be the sign of a bullish trend. There is added weight to this indication because the moving average is rising and suggests that there has been buying interest in this stock.
MACD
The MACD for CRXX currently indicates a strong bullish signal for two reasons. First, the MACD is above the signal line, a 9day moving average. Second, the MACD is above 0 which implies that the underlying moving averages are trending higher
On Balance Volume
The On Balance Volume indicator (OBV) presently offers a bullish signal. This is because the slope of the indicator is positive and shows that there is considerable buying interest.
They are saying August 20th for NPHC.
http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=NPHC:US
These guys say to expect 2Q report on august 3rd.
http://www.realpennies.com/otc/XCHO/
Nice board guys. I missed the ARNA run too and it was on the radar a few weeks ago.....ugh.
Don't give up on posting on our other board. I need you guys to drown out the noise.
Good luck,
nole
Per my 'you wouldn't believe the potential earnings for ARNA' statement, check out this thread:
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_A/threadview?m=te&bn=1339&tof=18&rt=2&frt=2&dir=b&ri=89019&n=pWkCXzzmNIHsh4atWIV4ew--
Yes, finally it got off it's azz and started moving, should continue up to the $11-$12 range, especially once V gets Euro sales approval, something I thought would have happened by now.
On another note, have you been following the wild action on ARNA?!?! Boyo, did I make a huge mistake waiting/trying to get it in the mid 6's a couple days ago, it just continued to skyrocket, hit $8 today! I managed to grab some for my ROTH at $7.17 and my first lot for my IRA at $7.21 this morning before it really took off.
Doesn't look like it's going to turn around before the FDA panel decision, shorts keep piling on and keep getting crushed. The entire "old" short position from 7/15 has been traded both yesterday and today, ~ 23 mil shares. Today's volume was a whopping 33 mil....Wowza! Even more amazing considering that 55% of the 100 mil float is locked up by institutional investors!
The financial numbers for ARNA's potential earnings are just unreal, staggering in fact...while I was trying to save 10-20 cents/shr someone posted some estimates that made me realize how silly I was being so I pulled the trigger. Still want to double my share count in my IRA, probably do it Monday.
Yes I have sent email to company, this is brand new. The SunPill is not a money maker at all, but the future plan was to sell as a cosmetic.
I can say it works. I take each day, live in Nevada and have not used any sunscreen in months. I freind who is pro model says her sun spots went away with it.
But XCHO is all about Cobroxin.
Will let you know what I find out.
it has to do with the sunpill
Industrial Farmaceutica Cantabria, S.A. (Madrid, Spain) has sued Xenacare Holdings, Inc. (Boca Raton, FL) and a number of other defendants for infringement of Patent No. 5,614,197 directed to polypodium extract as photoprotectant, namely an oral supplement for skin protection against the sun.
The complaint also includes counts for trademark infringement and similar claims against DoctorSolve and Pharmacy Direct relating to IFC’s HELIOCARE® mark for orally administered photoprotectant. IFC sells one version of its HELIOCARE product in the U.S. and a different version outside the U.S. The complaint alleges that DoctorSolve and Pharmacy Direct are purchasing the international version and importing it for sale in the U.S. without authorization, including through the use of the website <www.heliocarepills.com>.
Industrial Farmaceutica Cantabria, S.A. v. Xenacare Holdings, Inc., 10-11267-JLT (D. Mass. July 29, 2010)
Podes, just found it, will check into it. thanks
Podes, its private, you know as much as I do.
Is that the Mexico Cobroxin dist?
Geodan, I need a favor. Can you look into this company for me.
Industrial Farmaceutica Cantabria, S.A.
Hi STS, had a stop at 7.78 just checked the trade report, so was off bt .10 on post, but still very happy was such a fast gain. Will continue to watch, looks like POZN has broken the downtrend.
Cheers
Oops...sorry for the double post, don't know what happened there.
Typo there? Did you mean $7.88? Low of the day was $7.64....on pitiful volume at that.
PTIE on 5th touch of bottom
Some bad news, will check out more.
anyone in it?
XCHO Cobroxin TV ads on YouTube, links here
They will get direct sales from this, which are 90% margin sales.
Exited POZN at 5.88 on stop, good swing. looking for next swing entry
Kilr, it will take time for big/pro investors to commit to XCHO after reading report. Am expecting the volume to bump up in next week
Well, I am not at all disappointed with the PPS closing yesterday at .29 cents for Xena Care (XCHO). A 30% increase! Looking good and lets hope this is the start of even better things to come. I read the 25 page RedChip report and feel it is very well written and they do a good job analyzing all aspects of Xena Care. Very straightforward. If anything, I tend to think Webber's projections are conservative.
Kilr, XCHO:long term is $2.95-$5.90 share
XCHO Gap up strong this morn, on average volume, LongTerm Targets.
Right now the Ask is .27 and Bid .252 So the ask is over the High with 1 hour 40 mins of trading. So the buying has not come in heavy yet, but the Supply is tiny.
This is a rather usual development in trading, a big gap up a day after news on moderate volume. It indicates tiny supply and buyers hesitant to pay up so far.
If the buyers lose patience here, it could really run.
Of course the sparkplug for the reduced demand is the RedChip Report and Buy rating yesterday putting a near term .90 target on it which is 350% gain from when report was issued yesterday.
If you read the report why sellers have disappeared is understandable:
Here is the background on RedChip: http://www.redchip.com/about/aboutmain.asp?page=analyst They normally do research on much bigger companies, some over $1 billion mkt cap and on NYSE
http://www.redchip.com/about/aboutmain.asp?rid=262 This is the full report, you can get it here Its 25 pages
David Webber Wrote the Report a well known top Biotech Research Analyst:
David Webber has been covering the biotechnology industry since 1989. Previously, he was a senior biotechnology analyst with Alex. Brown & Sons, Warburg Dillon Read, and First Albany. He was named to the Wall Street Journal “Best on the Street” biotechnology team in 2005. Mr. Webber earned an M.A. in English at Columbia University.
The 2015 projections are about 100 mill in sales, $25 mill in after-tax profit, and $98 mill in cash with 85 mill shares at that time. That is $2.95 a share at 10 P/E and $5.90 a share at 20 P/E.
Thanks for pointing us to Redchip's research on Xena Care (XCHO), Geodan. I looked at the link you provided to Redchip and they seem very solid. I assume it is noteworthy that their Research Analysts even decided to look into XCHO and, of course, their projections for the company and the stock are positive. I read the summary and would like to ask about this projection (cut and pasted):
"We estimate that Cobroxin sales will grow from $7.5 million in 2010 to $100.4 million in 2015. Based on
projected 2015 EPS of $0.29, a P/E ratio of 10.0, and a risk discount factor of 25%, the implied fair value is
$0.96 per share. Based on projected 2011 EPS of $0.08 and an assumed forward P/E multiple of 10.5, the
average of six public, profitable nutrition supplement and homeopathic medicine companies, the implied
fair value is $0.84 per share. Our price target of $0.90 is the average of those two values. We expect the stock to move toward our target in response to quarterly financial results and announcements of significant new sales agreements, which could come at any time over the course of the year."
I am asking a question about this because I am somewhat confused (relatively new investor), but with the analysis provided above, when are they estimating XCHO will approach this target of .90 cents?....in the next year (2011)? by 2015? or they are not really saying? Thanks for helping a nube out.
Just out RedChip Buy Rating on XCHO +25 page report
Redchip Initiates Buy on XCHO with .090 Target.
Here is the background on RedChip: http://www.redchip.com/about/aboutmain.asp?page=analyst They normally do research on much bigger compaines, some over $1 billion mkt cap and on NYSE
http://www.redchip.com/about/aboutmain.asp?rid=262 This is the full report, you can get it here Its 25 pages
Just a short snippet:
INVESTMENT THESIS
We are initiating coverage of XenaCare Holdings, Inc. with a Speculative Buy rating. XenaCare’s primary
source of revenues is Cobroxin, an over-the-counter treatment for a broad range of the imperfectly served
market of 76 million Americans with chronic pain. Cobroxin, which is dilute cobra venom, is a unique
alternative to existing remedies for moderate pain which we believe could become a significant niche
product.
Based on company literature, Cobroxin is therapeutic for pain ranging from 2 to 6 on the commonly used
numeric rating scale of pain intensity (zero to 10, or “no pain” to “the worst pain imaginable”). That range
straddles the point at which many people with chronic pain stop getting relief from non-prescription or
over-the-counter (OTC) remedies like acetaminophen (in Tylenol) or ibuprofen (in Advil) or other nonsteroidal
anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and must switch to prescription analgesics, primarily the
opioids such as hydrocodone (e.g., Vicodin), oxycodone (e.g., OxyContin), or morphine, among others.
Opioids cause highly undesirable side-effects like dependence, sedation, and severe constipation, so a
product like Cobroxin that could be positioned as an affordable (less than $1 per day at recommended
dosing), easily available (non-prescription), and non-narcotic alternative should have access to a large
market opportunity.
Since initiating sales via internet and catalogue retailers last fall, XenaCare has gone on to negotiate sales
agreements with some three dozen retailers, including such major drug chains as CVS, Walgreen, RiteAid,
GNC, and Duane Reade and such major grocery chains as Publix, Winn-Dixie, Meijer, and Hannaford.
In 1Q10, the first full quarter of selling by some of these retailers, XenaCare’s revenues rose sharply,
producing the company’s first-ever profit. Although we expect expanded advertising outlays by XenaCare
to preclude net earnings for the next quarter or two, the company’s relatively low fixed cost basis implies
that sustainable profitability should come quickly, probably before the end of 2010.
We estimate that Cobroxin sales will grow from $7.5 million in 2010 to $100.4 million in 2015. Based on
projected 2015 EPS of $0.29, a P/E ratio of 10.0, and a risk discount factor of 25%, the implied fair value is
$0.96 per share. Based on projected 2011 EPS of $0.08 and an assumed forward P/E multiple of 10.5, the
average of six public, profitable nutrition supplement and homeopathic medicine companies, the implied
fair value is $0.84 per share. Our price target of $0.90 is the average of those two values.
We expect the stock to move toward our target in response to quarterly financial results and announcements
of significant new sales agreements, which could come at any time over the course of the year.
Another snippet:
Favorable product economics. Based on the first quarter Form 10-Q and discussions with management,
XenaCare sells Cobroxin to retailers for approximately $10 per bottle. Associated expenses are an
apparent $3 per bottle to purchase finished and packaged product from Nutra Pharma—for a gross margin
of approximately 70%--a 7% commission to distributors, and an 8% commission to independent sales
reps.
The other major elements of overhead are general and administrative expenses, which management expects
to remain level at roughly $33,000 per month for at least the next several quarters, and advertising, which
we estimate was approximately $230,000 in Q1.
Looking ahead, we expect gross margin to decline somewhat as the company starts selling to “big box”
chains, which typically exact discounts from their vendors. We project that the gross margin will drop
to 68% from 70% over the next few years. We expect no change in the distributor and sales commission
rates.
We estimate that the advertising budget for the Cobroxin rollout phase, from last October through 2011,
is approximately $16 million, with discounts likely to bring actual outlays down significantly. We expect
the company to spend roughly $300,000 per month for the rest of 2010 and $500,000 per month in 2011.
At that rate, advertising would equal about 23% of projected sales in 2011, which we would expect to be
the peak ratio. By 2015, we estimate that advertising, although higher in dollars, will have been reduced
to 12.5% of sales.
More Snippets:
Based on these projections, the operating margin would rise from an estimated 10% in 2010 to an estimated
39% in 2015.
Supply. XenaCare purchases finished Cobroxin from Nutra Pharma, the developer of the product. Nutra
Pharma sources bulk cobra venom from three U.S.-based vendors with several cobra venom vendors in
China available as back-ups. Nutra Pharma uses a contract manufacturer to formulate, finish, and fill
the product, which it then sells as a fixed price to XenaCare. XenaCare believes that Nutra Pharma’s
production capacity will be sufficient to meet demand for the foreseeable future.
The two companies have a five-year marketing and distribution agreement that automatically renews for
additional five-year periods unless terminated for cause or failure for not meeting minimum purchase
obligations. At present, XenaCare reports to be exceeding that minimum on an as-if, steady-state basis, so
we anticipate no trouble meeting the requirements of the contract.
Regulatory status. Unlike some substances with health claims such as dietary supplements, homeopathic
drugs are subject to the federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (FDCA) and FDA regulations. Homeopathy
is a more than 200-year-old system of medicine based on the belief that disease symptoms can be cured by
small doses of substances that produce similar symptoms in healthy people. Although use of homeopathic
medicine in the U.S. was waning during the first half of the twentieth century, it was given regulatory
status in the original FFDCA of 1938 and has remained there since. In recent years, use of homeopathic
medicine along with a wide array of complementary and alternative medicines has been growing again.
In order to be considered a “drug” under the FDCA, a homeopathic medicine must be included in the
official Homeopathic Pharmacopeia of the United States (HPUS). Inclusion is based on a monograph
that briefly describes the substance, its source, and its preparation. Homeopathic drugs must be produced
under Good Manufacturing Practices, and the FDA provides guidance on labeling and related matters
in its Compliance Policy Guide Sec. 400.400, “Conditions Under Which Homeopathic Drugs May Be
Marketed.”
XenaCare believes that Cobroxin is in compliance with all aspects of FDA regulation.
OTHER PRODUCTS
Although XenaCare does have other products, which are listed below, we expect the company to focus
almost exclusively on Cobroxin until it is well established in the marketplace and is generating excess
revenues to fund expansion of the portfolio.
REVENUE PROJECTIONS
In projecting Cobroxin revenues, our key assumptions are that advertising and word of mouth spur
continued growth through increased penetration of the 156,000 retail stores and mass marketing retailers
in the U.S. that sell healthcare products and through increased consumer demand. More specifically, we
estimate that store penetration—i.e., the percentage of stores stocking Cobroxin—will grow to 65% by the
end of 2010 and to 87.5% by the end of 2015. We estimate initial sales contracts with “big box” chains in
the second half of 2010. We also estimate that consumer demand will lead to improved shelf space driving
average store inventory and turnover rates higher over the next five years.
Based on the store penetration estimates above, XenaCare’s average wholesale price, an average store
inventory growing from 3 to 10 units, and an average turnover rising from 5 to 11 between 2010 and 2015,
we project U.S. sales will expand from $7.5 million in 2010 to $100.4 million in 2015.
In $ millions 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E
Sales 7.5 22.1 35.3 54.7 71.3 100.4
Projected Cobroxin sales by XenaCare
Source:??RedChip??estimates
Yes WI Biker, go figure.
It is very good news for NPHC, and even better news for XCHO. Clearly someone still selling here (meaning XCHO) on the good news, I am buying. My .19 Bid got hit.
We will have to wait till the seller is done, which will happen.
Cheers
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