Options Wonderland

[EquityMonster83]

In anticipation of warrant conversions and PIPE investors being able to sell in the next few weeks. NKLA 7/31 $40P underlying price $54.50.

[3xBuBu]

Bulls in China Markets Spark 2015 Fears

https://www.investopedia.com/bulls-in-a-china-s-markets-spark-2015-fears-5070544?utm_campaign=quote-yahoo&utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=referral&yptr=yahoo
By DEBORAH D'SOUZA
Updated Jul 7, 2020

- Chinese state-owned media predict "healthy bull market"
- Shanghai Composite index has risen more than 25% since March 23
- China-focused ETFs are surging, signs of a short squeeze
- Markets could crash if margin trading gets out of control like in 2015

They're saying if the U.S. stock markets have the Fed, Chinese stock markets have state-owned media. After various news outlets encouraged investors to buy equities this week, indices roared higher and yield on government debt surged the most since January. There were also zero new COVID-19 cases reported in the capital Beijing on Tuesday, the location of the recent outbreaks. The Shanghai Composite index, firmly in bull market territory, closed almost 6% higher yesterday and today rose for the fifth trading day in a row. It's currently at its highest level since February 2018.

Yesterday the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) jumped 9.5%, the sharpest single-day climb since March 2009. The iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) closed 7.3% higher, its best performance in nine years. Susquehanna analysts said there were signs of a short squeeze. The rally is also strengthening the yuan, and it'll be interesting to see how long the government allows that to continue past the 7-dollar mark.

"Retail investors dominate China’s equity turnover on the mainland. With a closed capital account, and the government managing most other investment avenues, China’s savings surplus can really only flow into real estate or equities," explained OANDA analyst Jeffrey Halley. "It is thus, not a difficult challenge to mobilize the masses, by extolling them to 'fill their boots' with equities. The implication being, that if state media is telling them to, there is an implicit 'letter of comfort,' that the government has their back."

There's however warnings about a possible repeat of 2015, when a stock market boom was followed by a crash. The amount of leverage, or money borrowed from brokerages, in the market has crossed 1.2 trillion yuan, which Bloomberg says is the highest since late 2015. Five years ago, the Chinese government loosened restrictions on investing with borrowed money (trading on margin) and equity prices exploded. The retail rush to stocks emerged despite a slowing economy because the Chinese Communist party chose the rhetoric of "zhongguomeng," meaning Chinese dream.

[3xBuBu]

Supreme Court Rules Trump Cannot Block Release of Financial Records
Two rulings clear the way for prosecutors in New York to see President Trump’s financial records, but the justices stopped Congress for now.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/us/trump-taxes-supreme-court.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

The Supreme Court on Thursday cleared the way for prosecutors in New York to see President Trump’s financial records, a stunning defeat for Mr. Trump but a decision that probably means the records will be shielded from public scrutiny under grand jury secrecy rules until after the election, and perhaps indefinitely.

In a separate decision, the court ruled that Congress could not, at least for now, see many of the same records. The vote in both cases was 7 to 2. Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. wrote both majority opinions.

The court’s decision in favor of the New York prosecutors was a major statement on the scope and limits of presidential power, one that will take its place with landmark rulings that required President Richard M. Nixon to turn over tapes of Oval Office conversations and forced President Bill Clinton to provide evidence in a sexual harassment suit.

[3xBuBu]

United warns 36,000 employees of potential job cuts as pandemic roils travel demand

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/08/coronavirus-united-braces-36000-employees-for-job-cuts-as-pandemic-roils-travel-demand.html

United is warning about 36,000 front-line employees about potential furloughs.
The terms of $25 billion in federal aid prohibit airlines from laying off or furloughing workers until Oct. 1.
Airlines are urging employees to take buyouts or early retirement packages to avoid involuntary cuts.

United Airlines on Wednesday said it is warning about 36,000 front-line employees — more than a third of its staff — about potential furloughs as the coronavirus pandemic continues to roil travel demand.

The potential for the mass job cuts, the largest announced by a U.S. airline so far, comes as signs of a recovery in air travel fade with new coronavirus infections and travel restrictions. Other airlines have warned employees about possible staff reductions and are likely to follow suit with similar formal notices.

[3xBuBu]

Shanghai soars more than 4%, leading gains in Asia as ‘bull sentiment’ drives markets

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/06/asia-markets-coronavirus-us-china-tensions-currencies-in-focus.html

Stocks in Asia Pacific were higher in Monday trade, with stocks in mainland China leading gains regionally.

The Shanghai composite soared 4.24% in morning trade while the Shenzhen component rose 3.29%. The Shenzhen composite also jumped 3.1%

Jackson Wong, asset management director at Amber Hill Capital, told CNBC in an email that “bull sentiment” in mainland Chinese shares was “driving the markets.”

Wong said the “sudden surge” in trading volume, as well as a break out for the Shanghai composite last week, raised investor expectations that “another bull run is coming.” Some of the reasons he suggested for the uptick in sentiment included the country being less affected by the coronavirus outbreak at the moment.

Bank of Communications’ Hao Hong agreed partly with Wong’s assessment, telling CNBC that the Shanghai composite has “broken through” its 850-day long-term moving average.

“The market continues to believe that the central bank will ease more, as seen by China’s recent credti and monetary expansion,” Hong,

Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index also saw robust gains, rising 3.15% in morning trade.

Elsewhere in the region, the Nikkei 225 in Japan rose 1.55% while the Topix index added 1.45%. South Korea’s Kospi advanced 1.38%.

[3xBuBu]

Trump signs extension of COVID-relief fund for businesses
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-signs-extension-covid-relief-142537273.html

President Donald Trump on Saturday signed into law a temporary extension of a subsidy program for small businesses battered by the coronavirus,

The legislation extends the June 30 deadline for applying for the program to Aug. 8. Lawmakers created the program in March and have modified it twice since, adding money on one occasion and more recently permitting more flexible use of the funding despite some grumbling among GOP conservatives.

About $130 billion of $660 billion approved for the program remains eligible for businesses to seek direct federal subsidies for payroll and other costs such as rent, though demand for the Paycheck Protection Program has pretty much dried up in recent weeks.

The Democratic-controlled House voted on Wednesday to approve the extension of the program after the Republican-controlled Senate did the same.

Trump had been expected to sign the measure.

[3xBuBu]

Gundlach lashes Fed's 'incredible fiscal lending' during coronavirus collapse

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gundlach-on-economys-dependency-on-the-federal-reserve-171229604.html

Billionaire bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach believes the Federal Reserve has "propped up the economy" with extraordinary feats of lending and bond buying that have curbed market volatility during the COVID-19 crisis, but may come back to haunt policymakers.

In a recent interview with Yahoo Finance, the CEO of $135 billion DoubleLine Capital hit out at what he called “the most incredible fiscal lending [Fed policymakers] have ever contemplated.”

Since the early days of the coronavirus crisis, the central bank has spent trillions to backstop the economy — buying a host of corporate bonds — placating a whipsawed market in the process. Those efforts have sent the Fed’s balance sheet spiking well above $7 trillion.

"The Fed has decided that they want to pull out all the stops to reduce market and economic volatility,” Gundlach said. “'What they're doing is really a bridge further than they have ever gone before.”

Turmoil on Wall Street was “really persistent and elevated...and they kept throwing things at it to make the volatility stop," the billionaire said, joking that "when investors use the word' volatility,' what they really mean is down, prices going down a lot."

The 60-year-old bond investing legend, who's spent 35 years in the markets and navigated multiple crises, explained that the recent rout in credit markets was “far worse” than the aftermath of the financial crisis.

"That led to what looked like was going to be some very substantial bankruptcies in some of the leveraged pools like mortgage-related REITs and other types of investments,” he explained.

As the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns wreaked havoc on the economy, the Fed unleashed an arsenal of liquidity facilities — including backing corporate debt markets, a move Gundlach criticized as violating the central bank's charter.

"The Fed figured desperate times...require desperate measures, and the went all the way into buying corporate bonds,” Gundlach said — which he argued is against the Federal Reserve Act of 1913.

He added they “could go even further” if there’s another downturn, which could very well happen as coronavirus infections surge nationwide.

Gundlach, one of the few investors who sounded the alarm in subprime that precipitated the 2008 crisis, has spoken to Yahoo Finance previously about a crisis looming in corporate credit, where companies are holding record levels of debt on their books.

The key risk is the enormous portion of investment-grade corporate market sitting at the lowest tier, which is BBB. Those bonds could easily be tipped into junk status.

"There's been so much issuance of corporate bonds. The prices have been propped up to levels where I think the owners that own them at these levels will end up losing principal on a basket of these assets," he said.

What that means is the Fed is "delaying the inevitable. In the meantime, they have a lot of wherewithal to continue delaying because they are spraying money all over the place and buying all these assets,” Gundlach added.

The veteran bond investor explained that "the price of corporate bonds isn't really real. There's no price discovery mechanism that's being pegged. There's no message; there's just a target price that the Fed has been doing, and that led to a pop-up in corporate bonds."

He cautioned on the interest rate profile of investment-grade, pointing to the LQD exchange-traded-fund as an example.

"It's about the interest rate risk of the 10-year Treasury and the yield-to-no losses is about 2.25. There's not a lot of reward there, and there's a lot of risk if the bonds get downgraded because the yields on junk bonds are far higher today than the yields on BBB corporate,” he argued.

“So, if they get downgraded, we know the pricing is going to suffer very significantly."

[3xBuBu]

QQQ top: falling star again,$VIX in opposite end touching MA200

three times is a charm,
this time is a red one

[3xBuBu]

Pfizer’s (PFE) coronavirus vaccine candidate showing progress in a trial phase — and the Federal Reserve’s pledge to keep the monetary spigots open “for years” — sent the Nasdaq Composite (QQQ) to a record close.

A broad rally in tech stocks carried Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX) Tesla (TSLA) and Microsoft (MSFT) to new record highs, with those companies riding the momentum of business models that are mostly perceived as coronavirus-proof. With the exception of Tesla, the high-flying tech shares are thriving from large numbers of consumers still working remotely.

Stocks closed out a breathtaking second-quarter rally that took them to their best overall quarter since 1998, and best second quarter on record. During that time frame, the S&P 500 saw a near-20% run-up during the April through June period, while the Dow and Nasdaq rose about 17.5% and 30%, respectively.

The historic rally was fueled by a massive fiscal and monetary policy response designed to bolster the virus-stricken economy, and as states and cities across the country began easing their lockdowns. Minutes from the Fed on Wednesday showed the central bank intends to keep its foot on the easing pedal for “years” as the recovery takes shape.

Why Inovio Pharmaceuticals Stock Is Crashing Today
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/07/01/why-inovio-pharmaceuticals-stock-is-crashing-today.aspx?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article&yptr=yahoo

Shares of Inovio Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:INO) were crashing 14.6% lower as of 10:55 a.m. EDT on Wednesday after falling as much as 20.7% earlier in the day. The drop stemmed from two factors. First, investors continued to be unimpressed by Inovio's lack of detail on Tuesday in its announcement of interim early-stage study results for COVID-19 vaccine candidate INO-4800. Second, the FDA issued an update on Tuesday that could mean no COVID-19 vaccine will be approved this year.






https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-update-pfizer-spurs-new-hope-in-vaccine-race-as-nyc-pulls-back-on-dining-plans-155021546.html

[3xBuBu]

BOC Aviation Cancels Orders for 30 Boeing 737 MAX Jets

https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/NYSE/boeing-BA/stock-news/82765189/boc-aviation-cancels-orders-for-30-boeing-737-max

Chinese-owned aircraft lessor BOC Aviation Ltd. has canceled orders for 30 Boeing Co. 737 MAX jets and deferred delivery of others, potentially adding to the U.S. plane maker's growing financial strain.

Hong Kong-listed BOC Aviation said late Tuesday that it signed an agreement with Chicago-based Boeing for the cancellations and an unspecified number of deferments.

BOC Aviation in March had agreed with Boeing to reschedule its 87 outstanding MAX orders, and its next planned delivery was pushed back until the final quarter of 2020.

The MAX jet has been grounded since March 2019 following the second of two fatal crashes. Boeing halted production of the passenger jet in January. Its inability to deliver new MAX jets has pressured liquidity and forced the company to take on additional debt.

The news from BOC Aviation comes on the heels of Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA's announcement Monday that the European discount carrier was cancelling its orders for 92 MAX jets.

[3xBuBu]

Virgin Galactic stock jumps after hours following second successful test flight

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/virgin-galactic-stock-jumps-after-hours-following-second-successful-test-flight-2020-06-25?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
Published: June 25, 2020 at 9:38 p.m. ET
Virgin Galactic on Thursday celebrated the second successful glide flight of its spaceship over Spaceport America in southern New Mexico.

After falling in regular trading, Virgin Galactic SPCE, -2.54% shares jumped 6% after hours.

Unlike the first glide test in early May, the pilots flew at higher speeds to help evaluate the ship’s systems and performance in preparation for the next stage of testing. That will involve rocket-powered flights.

Workhorse stock soars on heavy volume,
has more than tripled amid 8-day win streak

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/workhorse-stock-soars-on-heavy-volume-has-more-than-tripled-amid-8-day-win-streak-2020-06-29?mod=MW_article_top_stories

Shares of Workhorse Group Inc. WKHS, 35.76% soared 48% on very heavy volume Monday, putting them on track for an 8-day win streak, as the electric van maker was added to the Russell 3000 index RUA, 1.12% as of the opening bell. Trading volume was 92.3 million shares, compared with the full-day average of about 12.1 million shares. The stock has more than tripled (up 253%) during its current winning streak, lifting Workhorse's market capitalization to $1.03 billion. An 8-day win streak would be the longest since the 8-day stretched ending July 15, 2019. The company had announced last Tuesday that it had "successfully completed Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards" testing for its C650 and C1000 all-electric delivery vans.

EV Truck Company Hyliion Tortoise Is Soaring
https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-the-warrants-for-soon-to-be-hyliion-tortoise-stock-are-lagging-51593454106?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
Tortoise (ticker: SHLL) Acquisition Corp. stock has soared in recent days, as investors pile in ahead of its merger with Hyliion, an electric-powered heavy-duty truck company.

Shares of the special-purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, have risen 130% since the company announced a deal to combine with Hyliion on June 19, including gains of 42% last Friday and 29% on Monday. But its warrants haven’t kept up, and are trading at a big discount to where the stock is valued.

[3xBuBu]

Tesla Stock IPOed 10 Years Ago Today.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-10-anniversary-ipo-electric-vehicles-elon-musk-51593437846?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

This is the 10th anniversary of Tesla’s initial public offering—June 29, 2010. What a decade it has been for investors. The coming decade should be just as interesting.

The IPO was priced at $17, valuing the company at about $1.7 billion. Today, Tesla (ticker: TSLA) is the second-most valuable car company in the world, behind only Toyota Motor (TM). Tesla stock recently surpassed $1,000 a share and the company’s current market capitalization is roughly $180 billion.

Last summer at low of $250. 4 times after 1 year, amazing!

TATA India

BMWYY DMLRY BYDDF
Electric Vehicle Companies Seeing Big Numbers
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/electric-vehicle-companies-seeing-big-223717066.html

[3xBuBu]

Gilead Chooses Middle Ground in Pricing of Its Coronavirus Drug

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-29/gilead-says-remdesivir-will-cost-2-340-for-five-day-treatment?srnd=premium

Gilead Sciences Inc. said that it will charge U.S. hospitals roughly $3,120 for most patients who need remdesivir, picking a middle ground in a high-profile decision on the cost of one of the first drugs for Covid-19.

Patients suffering from the illness caused by the novel coronavirus are usually given six vials of remdesivir over five days. The price, which comes to $520 a vial, would apply to commercially insured patients in the U.S., according to a letter from Gilead Chief Executive Officer Daniel O’Day posted on the company’s website Monday.

It plans charge $390 a vial, or $2,340 for a five-day regimen, for direct government purchases by the U.S. or other developed countries.

Gilead’s pricing decision is consequential because it sets a precedent for how much future Covid-19 treatments might cost. While it’s higher than some patient groups had pushed for, it was close to a level that some drug-pricing watchdogs have said would be acceptable based on remdesivir’s expected benefit.


Both Gilead/ AstraZeneca own successful Covid-19 drugs

[3xBuBu]

Chesapeake Energy Corp. CHK @11.85 on Friday, -7.27% said Sunday that it had filed for bankruptcy protection as an oil- and gas-price rout stoked by the coronavirus pandemic proved to be the final blow for a shale-drilling pioneer long hamstrung by debt. Its shares were halted at the open.

[3xBuBu]

Boeing, Raytheon Technologies Corp. share gains lead Dow's nearly 500-point rally

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/boeing-raytheon-technologies-corp-share-gains-lead-dows-nearly-475-point-rally-2020-06-29?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo


Boeing Gets Go-Ahead for Test Flights of Its Troubled 737 Max
The flights, which could begin as soon as Monday, are a major step in getting the plane flying again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/28/business/boeing-737-max-faa.html

Boeing has received Federal Aviation Administration approval to start test flights of its 737 Max to demonstrate that it can fly safely with new flight control software.

The certification flights, conducted by F.A.A. pilots, will probably take place in the Seattle area, where the plane is made. A top Boeing test pilot will also be on the flights. “Testing is expected to take several days, and will include a wide array of flight maneuvers and emergency procedures to enable the agency to assess whether the changes meet F.A.A. certification standards,” the agency said in an email on Sunday to Senate and House oversight committee staff members.

If the flights are successful, it could still be months before the planes are deemed ready to fly again. If the F.A.A. identifies further problems, Boeing may need to make additional changes. The crashes were caused in part by anti-stall software on the Max, known as MCAS, which automatically pushed the nose of the planes downward. Boeing developed a fix for the software, though regulators have identified other problems since.

F.A.A. officials will spend a week or more preparing a report detailing their findings from the flights. Once that is complete, Boeing will submit a package of materials to the agency that will include details of the new software and how it was designed and tested.

The Max crisis has dealt a devastating blow to Boeing’s business. In January, the company estimated that costs associated with the grounding will exceed $18 billion, but that was before the disastrous spread of the coronavirus. The three carriers in the United States that operate the Max — Southwest Airlines, American Airlines and United Airlines — have canceled thousands of flights in recent months. At Air Canada, some pilots who were licensed to fly the Max but not other planes in the carrier’s fleet, had to stop flying after the grounding.

[3xBuBu]

American to Resume Filling All Plane Seats

https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/NASDAQ/american-airlines-AAL/stock-news/82741445/american-to-resume-filling-all-plane-seats-wsj

By Alison Sider
This article is being republished as part of our daily reproduction of WSJ.com articles that also appeared in the U.S. print edition of The Wall Street Journal (June 27, 2020).

American Airlines says it will fill its planes completely as passengers start to return to traveling after the coronavirus pandemic decimated demand in recent months.

American has been leaving the equivalent of half the middle seats in economy cabins empty to facilitate social distancing, filling planes to about 85% of capacity. The airline said Friday that it will stop that practice July 1, while continuing to alert passengers when their flights are filling up, giving them the chance to switch free of charge.

United Airlines Holdings Inc. allows planes to fly full, though it also gives customers the chance to change flights. Spirit Airlines Inc. is also filling planes to capacity.

Delta Air Lines Inc. and Southwest Airlines Co. are leaving open all middle seats, or the equivalent number of seats. Both airlines have said they plan to continue blocking seats through the end of September.

Airlines are now adding back flights, saying people have started to travel again to visit friends and relatives or head to vacation destinations after months of being cooped up at home. A surge of new infections in states that had been reopening, like Texas and Florida, could jeopardize the rebound in travel.

Airlines have mounted a campaign to convince passengers that flying is safe by preventing infection on board with enhanced cleaning procedures and other measures. American said it will start asking passengers to certify that they have been free of Covid-19 symptoms for 14 days when they check in, joining airlines including United and Southwest that have started asking passengers to attest to being symptom-free.

Airlines are also more stringently enforcing requirements that everyone onboard wear masks. American and other airlines have said that passengers who refuse to comply with mask requirements will risk losing the ability to book future travel.

"Wearing a face covering continues to be one of the most important ways travelers can protect themselves and others while flying," American said in a statement.

Social distancing has become a flashpoint. Throughout the spring, planes were nearly empty, giving everyone plenty of room to spread out. But as demand has started to pick up, some travelers were alarmed to find themselves unexpectedly on relatively full flights.

Airline executives have said keeping seats empty indefinitely is a money-losing proposition, and that even empty middle seats don't provide the level of social distancing that public-health officials recommend.

Write to Alison Sider at [e-mail]

Delta Warns Pilots of Possible Furloughs

https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/NYSE/delta-air-lines-DAL/stock-news/82741399/delta-warns-pilots-of-possible-furloughs

By Alison Sider
Delta Air Lines Inc. will send notices next week to over 2,500 pilots warning of potential furloughs as travel demand is still languishing due to the coronavirus pandemic, the airline wrote in a letter Friday.

Delta and the union that represents its pilots reached a tentative agreement on the terms of a voluntary retirement package for the airline's pilots in an effort to reduce the number who are forced to leave.

But recovery may be at least two years away, John Laughter, Delta's senior vice president of flight operations, wrote to pilots Friday evening.

"Early retirements alone likely won't be enough to avoid pilot furloughs altogether," Mr. Laughter wrote. "Even with the increased travel demand we've seen in recent weeks, we expect revenue to be at only 25 percent of what it was last summer."

The airline and the union are also negotiating a potential agreement that could avoid furloughs altogether for two years, but Mr. Laughter said the airline wanted to notify the 2,558 pilots at risk of being cut under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act, known as the WARN Act, to let them know of the possibility.

CNBC earlier reported the notices.

Delta has retired some fleet types altogether to conserve cash and has parked hundreds of jets due to reduced demand, leaving it with more pilots than it needs. Still, airlines have been trying to avoid letting pilots go, which triggers costly retraining and can make it more difficult for carriers to ramp back up when demand does rebound.

Airlines must keep all their workers on the payroll through the end of September under the terms of the $25 billion in federal aid they received earlier this year when the pandemic first took hold and brought travel demand to a near halt. Most airlines, including Delta, have cautioned workers they would have to cut staff when Oct. 1 arrives. Other carriers are offering similar early retirement options to their employees.

Unions representing aviation employees wrote to congressional leaders this week advocating that the payroll support funding be extended another six months, until March 31, 2021.

Delta has 7,900 pilots eligible for the early retirement offer, which includes partial pay for three years or until age 65, as well as health and travel benefits.

Write to Alison Sider at [e-mail]

[3xBuBu]

Stock Market Rally Hits Brake; What To Do As Coronavirus Cases Soar

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/41d35cb8-14b3-34e3-94d6-11b7cff87b4b/dow-jones-futures%3A-stock.html


QQQ leading the way south after the evening star showing up couple days ago;
DJIA, SPX, IWM, SMH following its way after breaking out the down trend lines!



Covid-19 milestones continued Saturday, from global coronavirus cases topping 10 million and worldwide deaths hitting 500,000 to Florida infections skyrocketing yet again.

The coronavirus stock market rally remains in a confirmed uptrend, with true leaders such as Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon.com (AMZN) holding up.

Dexcom (DXCM), Fortinet (FTNT) and Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) all have brand-new bases. Meanwhile, it's a big week for Tesla (TSLA) and Tesla stock.

The coronavirus stock market rally could be starting a new, slower phase after the tremendous run from March lows, but it could also be the start of a pullback or more as soaring Covid-19 cases raise concerns about the economic recovery.

Leading stocks continue to lead. Apple stock, Microsoft stock and Amazon stock all rose last week. Fellow megacap Facebook (FB) and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL), a little late to the coronavirus stock market rally, suffered big losses, plunging Friday. AAPL stock, MSFT stock and AMZN stock have been leaders in the coronavirus stock market rally, but also in recent years. Facebook stock and Google stock, though enjoying periods of outperformance, have generally moved in sync with the broader market for years.

[3xBuBu]

The stock market is more vulnerable now
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-lot-of-bad-news-is-converging-on-the-stock-market-heres-how-to-deal-with-it-2020-06-25?mod=home-page

1. Sentiment is turning bullish. Not feverishly so, but enough to make this a less compelling time to buy stocks in the contrarian sense, meaning you should get less bullish as the crowd gets more bullish. The dozen sentiment indicators I track are all now either neutral or bearish (showing too much bullishness). Excessive optimism is seen in the high levels of call buying at the Chicago Board Options Exchange, for example, and the record number of new accounts at discount brokerage firms and Robinhood.

2. Insiders have shifted to neutral. Insider buyers have left the building. On Tuesday there were only 12 companies whose own executives bought more than $100,000 worth of stock, which is low. Part of the decline is because we are moving into earnings reporting season. So insiders are getting locked down. But this doesn’t explain all of it.

3. Covid-19 risks are rising. In the early days of the coronavirus resurgence, you could argue case counts were rising because of more testing. No longer. The infection rate per number of tests is going up because the coronavirus case count is rising as people circulate again. Epidemiologists I talk with, including Dr. Michael Mina at Harvard, caution that the chances are very high that we will see even more serious outbreaks in early October when flu season returns.

4. Political risk is rising. Polls show Joe Biden is now the favorite to win the White House. Betting odds at gaming sites suggest there is a good chance the Senate will go Democratic. Both events would be perceived as negatives for stocks since tax and regulation policies of Democrats can be viewed as bad for stocks. Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden’s policies would impose $3.5 trillion in costs on businesses and investors by increasing the corporate tax rate, and capital gains and dividend tax rates, according to Cornerstone Macro.

5. The seasonally weak time of year lies just ahead. That means July through the end of October.


Not all bad news
Offsetting those negatives are six factors that suggest any selloff won’t be too dramatic and that the current Covid-19 resurgence won’t be as bad as the initial phase.

1.?Cash levels are really high. Money market funds now hold $4.8 trillion, says the Investment Company Institute, above the prior high of $3.8 trillion in January 2009. Deposits in commercial banks increased sharply in March-May (by $2 trillion), moving those levels up to a record $15.4 trillion, or around twice as much as 2009 levels, according to the Federal Reserve. Those numbers suggest a lot of investors who sold the March selloff never got back in. They are itching to do so, which means they will support the market in any significant decline.

2.?The personal savings rate has increased dramatically. This boosts consumer-spending power. Defined as the percentage of income left after people spend money and pay taxes, this rose to a record high of 33% during April from 8.2% in February.

3.?The Fed and the federal government have injected massive amounts of stimulus in the economy. They are not even done yet. Phase 4 with an infrastructure-spending component awaits. To consider infrastructure stocks, here is a recent column I wrote on this theme.

4.?We probably aren’t going back into full lockdown mode. That’s because the trillions of dollars in costs seem too high, in economic damage and government stimulus funding to offset it.

5.?Covid-19 immunity for people who get it seems to be real. Mina, at Harvard, notes we see very few cases of people getting infected twice, and when it happens it’s because of severe immune-system problems. Meanwhile, we have learned a lot about how to track and contain virus spread, even if adequate testing and surveillance infrastructure is not in place, according to Mina.

6.?The Covid-19 resurgence may be limited geographically. The biggest spreads so far are happening in the Sunbelt. This suggests it may be linked to staying indoors because of the heat, with air conditioning recirculating viruses. People stay out of the heat and use air conditioning in the North, too, but less so. Many relatively cooler states currently do not show as much of a resurgence.

[3xBuBu]

Another 1.38 million new jobless claims predicted

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/another-138-million-new-jobless-claims-predicted-why-arent-they-falling-faster-2020-06-24?mod=newsviewer_click

The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits each week is still shockingly high if the government’s math adds up, but some economists are starting to wonder.

After a rapid decline in late April and May, the historically high level of initial jobless claims only fell 4% to 1.51 million in the seven days ended June 13. It was the smallest percentage drop in new claims filed traditionally through state unemployment offices since the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic.

By all rights, weekly claims should have fallen even faster and dropped below the 1 million mark by now, economists say. There was a record loss of jobs in March and April, and a rebound in employment in May as the economy began to reopen.



An actual, or unadjusted 18.7 million people were getting benefits as of the first week of June. If more Americans are returning to their jobs, continuing claims should decline more rapidly.

And as bad as those numbers are, they are even worse if jobless claims filed through an temporary federal-relief program are included. An unadjusted 29.2 million people were reportedly receiving benefits as of May 30, the most recent data available.


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/24/bidens-big-lead-in-the-polls-could-be-partly-behind-markets-drop-and-may-lead-to-more-weakness.html
Biden’s big lead in the polls could be partly behind market’s drop





The Fed in March unveiled lending programs it said could provide $2.3 trillion to the economy. So far, that has totaled just $143 billion, or 6.2% of the total firepower.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/24/the-fed-said-it-could-supply-the-economy-with-2point3-trillion-it-hasnt-come-close-so-far.html

In the three months since a slew of programs were announced, the Fed has loaned out just $143 billion, or a mere 6.2% of its total firepower. The most ambitious initiative, the Main Street Lending Program, has yet to make a loan, according to the most recent Fed balance sheet data, though officials expect that to change in a matter of days.


Graph shows stark difference in US and EU responses to Covid-19
https://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2020/06/22/united-states-europe-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic-comparison-sanjay-gupta-ldn-vpx.cnn

CNN's Dr. Sanjay Gupta uses a graph to compare new Covid-19 reported case numbers for the US and Europe

[3xBuBu]

SPX/IWM Timber!!!
Looking for break-down
.

[shansen1785]

Hey guys, Been with IH for years and positive trading for over 12 years but am fairly new to options with about 2 years knowledge of options. So I made over $50k last week with 2 buy calls that were way OTM on monday and paid like $250 each for them. By friday I forgot to sell them and Etrade exercised them and some how the next day on Sat i had a $50k gain. Well on to this week. I have a few more calls from oxy and a few other symbols i bought to expire on 06/26/2020. Was up $25k by tuesday and sould have sold to close them all but have to admit I had traders block. Now most are losing. Now I've lost everything before and learned from the lessons and how to repair and make gains with stocks alone but options is another learning curve and I know i could lose everything but am will to learn from it so I needs anyone's hep on advice of repairing losing Bought call options with 2 days or less to expiration. Ill use one of my TMUS positions as example, Bought 25 calls @ $2.44avg cost with exp date 06/26/2020, current UL values is $108.75. TV is $1.71 and last trade was $2.00 and last bid $1.00 ask $2.42. So wis losing options with little time left does anyone have and advice or ideas to help minimize further loss or some how save options in this position and turn them around into gains other then just selling to close? I may sound stupid and made newbie to options mistakes but I want to learn from them so anyone that can please help as I always pay it forward to others I teach would greatly be appreciated. Thanks guys ;)

[3xBuBu]

The Fed in March unveiled lending programs it said could provide $2.3 trillion to the economy. So far, that has totaled just $143 billion, or 6.2% of the total firepower.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/24/the-fed-said-it-could-supply-the-economy-with-2point3-trillion-it-hasnt-come-close-so-far.html

When the coronavirus pandemic locked up capital markets and pulled the economy into recession, the Federal Reserve took aim with a $2.3 trillion bazooka to try to help. Thus far, though, the central bank has only fired off surprisingly few rounds.

In the three months since a slew of programs were announced, the Fed has loaned out just $143 billion, or a mere 6.2% of its total firepower. The most ambitious initiative, the Main Street Lending Program, has yet to make a loan, according to the most recent Fed balance sheet data, though officials expect that to change in a matter of days.

As for the rest of the measures, from municipal lending to corporate credit to the Fed’s role in the Paycheck Protection Program, there are several likely explanations for why what was supposed to be an infusion of cash into the economy instead has been a comparative trickle.

One is simply that the programs, particularly in the case of Main Street, are complicated and have proven difficult to launch as the Fed gathers feedback and works through logistics. Another is that there is simply less demand from entities that are finding other ways to make do. And on that same point, the notion that the U.S. economy is recovering more quickly than expected from a recession that began in February has negated the need for the arsenal that the Fed launched starting in March.

“The economy is getting better, so you’re not seeing as many firms short of cash as you’d seen in March and April,” said Yiming Ma, an assistant finance professor at Columbia University Business School. “Some of the terms are just not very attractive to firms who potentially do need the funds.”

Slowness in getting out of the gate is not unique to the Main Street program.

[3xBuBu]

QQQ top: falling star

[3xBuBu]

Trump threat to 'decouple' U.S. and China hits trade, investment reality

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-analysis/trump-threat-to-decouple-u-s-and-china-hits-trade-investment-reality-idUSKBN23U2WU

Conflicting talk from Trump administration officials about “decoupling” the U.S. economy from China is running into a challenging reality: Chinese imports of U.S. goods are rising, investment by American companies into China continues, and markets are wary of separating the world’s biggest economies.

White House trade adviser Peter Navarro gave Asian markets a scare on Monday night by telling Fox News Channel that the U.S.-China trade deal was “over.” U.S. stock futures dropped, the dollar rose, and volatility indices climbed.

Navarro quickly backtracked on Monday night, saying he was referring to a lack of trust between the United States and China over the coronavirus outbreak. President Donald Trump also quickly tweeted that the deal was intact.

On Tuesday, National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow praised Beijing, telling Fox Business Network “they’ve actually picked up their game” when it comes to the trade deal.

The damage-control efforts by the Trump administration come after Trump said last week that “a complete decoupling from China” was an option, overruling U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, who had told lawmakers that decoupling was not realistic.

The Trump re-election campaign has made being "tough on China" a key part of his platform here The White House has blamed Beijing for the spread of the coronavirus that has killed more than 120,000 Americans, more than any other country.

STRONG INVESTMENT
U.S. companies had announced $2.3 billion in new direct investment projects in the first quarter of 2020, only slightly down from last year's quarterly average despite the coronavirus, the Rhodium Group said in a recent study here - indicating that few U.S. companies are reducing their China footprint.

Bill Reinsch, a senior adviser and trade expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said it took over 20 years for the U.S. and Chinese economies to grow together, and decoupling cannot be accomplished easily.

Some companies are leaving, not because of Trump, but because of rising Chinese wage rates and Chinese policies that have disadvantaged foreign-owned businesses, he said.

“If you’re in China to serve the Chinese market, you’re going to stay because you can’t serve it as well from the outside,” Reinsch said. “The president can’t simply order everybody to come home. Businesses will make rational, economic decisions.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump/trump-slams-protesters-at-phoenix-rally-visits-border-wall-in-arizona-idUSKBN23U2YS

Earlier, Trump visited a newly built section of the border wall along the frontier with Mexico in San Luis, Arizona, a dusty, barren landscape where the temperature hit 102 degrees Fahrenheit (40 degrees Celsius). Using a black Sharpie pen, he autographed a plaque commemorating the 200th mile of the wall.

A campaign pledge to build a wall along the entire 2,000-mile U.S.-Mexico border helped propel Trump to the White House in 2016.

The trip was Trump’s third this year to Arizona, which reported a record increase of more than 3,500 new cases of coronavirus infections on Tuesday. The state also saw record hospitalizations, admissions to intensive care units and numbers of patients on ventilators.

The president and his advisers have largely dismissed concerns about holding campaign events as coronavirus transmissions continue to climb in parts of the country.

Trump told the audience on Tuesday the virus, which originated in China, is known by many names, including “the kung flu,” a description that has drawn fire as an ethnic slur.

[3xBuBu]

Trump Says China Deal ‘Fully Intact’ After Navarro Roils Markets

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-trump/trump-says-china-trade-deal-is-fully-intact-idUSKBN23U09N

Market recover all the 500 pt losses

[3xBuBu]

Dow futures down nearly 400 points after Peter Navarro says China trade deal is ‘over’

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/22/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

Stock futures turned negative after White House trade advisor Peter Navarro told Fox News in a Monday interview that the trade deal with China was “over.”

As of Monday evening stateside, Dow futures dropped 398 points, implying an opening drop of more than 300 points at the open on Tuesday. Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 also pointed to a lower open for the two indexes.

While stocks started the week on a strong foot, it came under thin trading. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), which tracks the broader market index, traded more than 67 million shares on Monday. That’s well below the ETF’s 30-day volume average of 105.01 million.


White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow told CNBC on Monday “there is no second wave coming and that lawmakers will likely develop another stimulus package by the end of next month.

[3xBuBu]

Pre/Post- Presidential Election Action and $SPX/$NYAD MAs crossing
$SPX (June 1985 - June 2020)

Jan 2012 to Jun 2020 (2020 pre-election year)


Jan 2016 to Jun 2020 (2020 pre-election year)

Jan 2009 to Dec 2011 (2012 pre-election year)

Jan 1992 to Dec 2011 (2012 pre-election year)



Jan 1999 to Dec 2001 (2000 pre-election year)


Jan 2002 to Dec 2004 (2004 pre-election year)

$INDU MAs crossing

IWM MAs crossing

$SPX - CALL/PUT


15-20 year Charts

SPY

QQQ

$INDU

$WTIC

AAPL

$TNX

[3xBuBu]

Market is heading south for summer vacation
$INDU

$CPC/BB


$NASI/$COMPQ

$NASI/$NYSI

$SPX



$SPY

$WTIC



https://stockcharts.com/public/3421479/tenpp/18

[3xBuBu]

$RUT - Fibonacci Retracements working like a charm
H & S forming now

.





https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/05/fibonacciretracement.asp

[3xBuBu]

Russell 2k forming Head and Shoulder
.

[3xBuBu]

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 384 points
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/17/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

Investors turned more cautious as increases in coronavirus cases cast doubt on a swift economic recovery. Several states in the U.S. are experiencing a resurgence of infections. Arizona reported a record high number of new confirmed cases, while Texas saw an 11% daily spike in hospitalizations for patients with Covid-19 on Wednesday.

“We believe the market is pricing in quite a bit of good news and the rally is likely to take a breather in coming months as the recovery evolves,” Scott Wren, Wells Fargo’s senior global market strategist, said in a note. “We expect volatility in the coming months as we gauge how the reopenings are going and how consumer spending is progressing.”

New jobless claims data is set to come out Thursday morning, offering an update on the pace of the labor market’s recovery from the pandemic. Economist polled by Dow Jones expected a total of 1.30 million new filings for the week ending June 13, a decline from 1.54 million from the week prior.

.




Russell 2k forming Head and Shoulder

[3xBuBu]

Enphase Energy Short Seller Doubles Down On Fraud Allegations Following Third-Party Investigation

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/enphase-energy-short-seller-doubles-175047843.html

Enphase Energy Inc (NASDAQ: ENPH) shares plummeted 23.2% on Wednesday after short seller Prescience Point released a new report alleging fraudulent accounting practices and predicting Enphase will ultimately be delisted.

In the new report, Prescience Point claims Enphase has fabricated financial statements and SEC filings.

“Based on our research, we estimate that at least $205.3m of its reported US revenue in FY 2019 was fabricated. Based on statements provided by former employees and other solar industry participants, it appears that the Company inflated its international revenue significantly as well,” Prescience Point alleges.

In addition, the firm claims a significant portion of Enphase’s gross margin expansion from the second quarter of 2017 to the first quarter of 2020 is fraudulent.

Investigation Findings: Prescient Point called for regulators to investigate Enphase’s accounting practices and claimed a third-party investigation of Enphase’s India business revealed the following troubling findings:

Enphase is allegedly using an India-based team to carry out accounting fraud.
Nearly all of the former Enphase employees the investigator interviewed claimed the company was fabricating financial numbers.
At least one former Enphase distributor in India terminated its relationship with the company due to concerns over potentially fraudulently inflated invoices.
Employee turnover in Enphase’s Bangalore office is an extremely high 70%, which Prescient Point attributes in part to Enphase’s accounting practices.
Original Allegations: Prescient Point previously accused Enphase of using improper deferred revenue accounting back in 2018, but the market mostly ignored the allegations and the stock continued to rise.

[3xBuBu]

Scientists hail dexamethasone as ‘major breakthrough’ in treating coronavirus

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/16/steroid-dexamethasone-reduces-deaths-from-severe-covid-19-trial.html

Dexamethasone, a cheap and widely used steroid, has become the first drug shown to be able to save lives among Covid-19 patients in what scientists hailed as a “major breakthrough”.

[Co-developed by Oxford University and AstraZeneca PLC (AZN)]

Results of trials announced on Tuesday showed dexamethasone, which is used to reduce inflammation in other diseases, reduced death rates by around a third among the most severely ill Covid-19 patients admitted to hospital.

The results suggest the drug should immediately become standard care in patients with severe cases of the pandemic disease, said the researchers who led the trials.

“This is a result that shows that if patients who have Covid-19 and are on ventilators or are on oxygen are given dexamethasone, it will save lives, and it will do so at a remarkably low cost,” said Martin Landray, an Oxford University professor co-leading the trial, known as the RECOVERY trial.

“It’s going to be very hard for any drug really to replace this, given that for less than 50 pounds ($63.26), you can treat eight patients and save a life,” he told reporters in an online briefing.

His co-lead investigator, Peter Horby, said dexamethasone was “the only drug that’s so far shown to reduce mortality - and it reduces it significantly.”

“It is a major breakthrough,” he said. “Dexamethasone is inexpensive, on the shelf, and can be used immediately to save lives worldwide.”

There are currently no approved treatments or vaccines for Covid-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus which has killed more than 431,000 globally.

Saving ‘countless lives’
The RECOVERY trial compared outcomes of around 2,100 patients who were randomly assigned to get the steroid, with those of around 4,300 patients who did not get it.

The results suggest that one death would be prevented by treatment with dexamethasone among every eight ventilated Covid-19 patients, Landray said, and one death would be prevented among every 25 Covid-19 patients that received the drug and are on oxygen.

Among patients with Covid-19 who did not require respiratory support, there was no benefit from treatment with dexamethasone.

“The survival benefit is clear and large in those patients who are sick enough to require oxygen treatment, so dexamethasone should now become standard of care in these patients,” Horby said.

Nick Cammack, a expert on Covid-19 at the Wellcome Trust global health charity, said the findings would “transform the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on lives and economies across the world”.

“Countless lives will be saved globally,” he said in a statement responding to the results.

The RECOVERY trial was launched in April as a randomised clinical trial to test a range of potential treatments for Covid-19, including low-dose dexamethasone and the malaria drug hydoxycholoroquine.

The hydroxychloroquine arm was halted earlier this month after Horby and Landray said results showed it was “useless” at treating Covid-19 patients.

Global cases of infection with the novel coronavirus have reached over 8 million, according to a Reuters tally, and more than 434,000 people have died after contracting the virus, the first case if which was reported in China in early January.

The Food and Drug Administration has revoked its emergency use authorization for the drugs hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine for the treatment of Covid-19.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/15/politics/fda-hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus/index.html

Hydroxychloroquine was frequently touted by President Donald Trump, and he has claimed to have used it himself.
After reviewing the current research available on the drugs, the FDA determined that the drugs do not meet "the statutory criteria" for emergency use authorization as they are unlikely to be effective in treating Covid-19 based on the latest scientific evidence, the agency noted on its website on Monday.
"FDA has concluded that, based on this new information and other information discussed in the attached memorandum, it is no longer reasonable to believe that oral formulations of HCQ and CQ may be effective in treating COVID-19, nor is it reasonable to believe that the known and potential benefits of these products outweigh their known and potential risks," FDA chief scientist Denise Hinton wrote in a letter to Gary Disbrow of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) on Monday. Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine have been tied to serious cardiac events as well as other side effects among Covid-19 patients.

An inexpensive drug reduces virus deaths, scientists say.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/16/world/coronavirus-live-updates.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article
Scientists at the University of Oxford said on Tuesday that they have identified what they called the first drug proven to reduce coronavirus-related deaths, after a 6,000-patient trial of the drug in Britain showed that a low-cost steroid could reduce deaths significantly for hospitalized patients.

The steroid, dexamethasone, reduced deaths by a third in patients receiving ventilation, and by a fifth in patients receiving only oxygen treatment, the scientists said. They found no benefit from the drug in patients who did not need respiratory support.

Matt Hancock, Britain’s health secretary, said National Health Service doctors would begin treating patients with the drug on Tuesday afternoon.

The government started stockpiling dexamethasone several months ago because it was hopeful about the potential of the drug, Mr. Hancock said, and now has 200,000 doses on hand.

“Dexamethasone is the first drug to be shown to improve survival in Covid-19,” said Peter Horby, professor of emerging infectious diseases at the University of Oxford, and one of the chief investigators for the trial, said in a statement. “The survival benefit is clear and large in those patients who are sick enough to require oxygen treatment.”

[3xBuBu]

Dow futures surge amid report that Trump is preparing $1 trillion infrastructure proposal

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/15/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.htmlhttps://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/15/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

Futures contracts tied to the major U.S. stock indexes rose early Tuesday morning as a Bloomberg report said President Donald Trump’s administration is preparing a $1 trillion infrastructure proposal.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 492 points, suggesting an open gain of more than 539 points when regular trading resumes on Tuesday. S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures also implied a positive Tuesday start for the two indexes.

Citing people familiar with the plan, Bloomberg reported the Trump administration is drawing up a $1 trillion infrastructure proposal. The report said a preliminary version being prepared would set aside majority of the money for traditional infrastructure such as roads and bridges, though funds would also be reserved for 5G wireless infrastructure and rural broadband.

The overnight moves Monday evening followed a striking rebound in U.S. equity markets during the regular session.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 157.62 points higher on Monday after the blue-chip index fell more than 760 points earlier in the session. The S&P 500 gained 0.8% to end the day at 3,066.59 while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.4% to 9,726.02. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq had fallen as much as 2.5% and 1.9%, respectively, before erasing those losses.

Traders pointed to an announcement from the Federal Reserve during Monday’s session for an abrupt move higher around 1:50 p.m. ET.

The central bank said it would buy individual corporate bonds and signaled a broader approach to corporate bond buying that had remained a matter of speculation until Monday afternoon. The Fed indicated earlier in the spring that it would buy bonds on the primary market, but Monday’s announcement expanded its operations into the secondary market.

[3xBuBu]

DocuSign to Enter Nasdaq 100, Replacing United Airlines
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/0e6bb8d1-37f7-3add-ac1c-61b7488473c0/docusign-to-enter-nasdaq-100-.html

Nasdaq said that as of June 22, the e-signature company DocuSign would join the Nasdaq 100 Index and replace United Airlines.

[3xBuBu]

Huawei CFO's Lawyers Say She Is Falsely Accused by U.S.
June 15 2020 - 06:36PM
Dow Jones News Print
By Jacquie McNish
https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/stock-news/82663876/huawei-cfos-lawyers-say-she-is-falsely-accused-by

Lawyers for Huawei Technologies Co. finance chief Meng Wanzhou told a Canadian court that the U.S. has wrongly accused her of lying to banks about the Chinese company's business ties to Iran.

A memo filed with the Supreme Court of British Columbia on Monday by Ms. Meng's lawyers said U.S. authorities made "reckless misstatements" about a presentation she made to HSBC in 2013 when Huawei was negotiating a line of credit.

The memo said her presentation to HSBC stated Huawei "conducts normal business activities in Iran" and worked with a partner, Skycom Tech, "in sales and service in Iran."

Ms. Meng's lawyers added that the alleged U.S. omission of her statements will be added to their claim that U.S. and Canadian officials have abused her legal rights when she was arrested at a Vancouver airport in December 2018.

A spokesman for the U.S. Justice Department wasn't immediately available to comment.

The U.S. is seeking to extradite Ms. Meng from Canada to the U.S. to face charges that she was part of a conspiracy to defraud financial institutions by claiming that Huawei wasn't tied to Skycom. HSBC and other banks cleared hundreds of millions of dollars in transactions that potentially violated international sanctions against Iran.

Ms. Meng, 48 years old, is the daughter of Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei. She is currently on bail and confined to the Vancouver area with an ankle monitor.

She lost an important legal battle last month when a British Columbia judge ruled the U.S. had met a key test to extradite her to the U.S.

The judge has agreed to other hearings in the coming months to consider Ms. Meng's claim that she was unlawfully searched and interrogated before her 2018 arrest at the airport. She also claims the extradition request is improperly based on political motivations at a time the U.S. is seeking the upper hand in prolonged trade and technology tensions with China.

Canada has a low legal threshold for allowing extraditions to the U.S., but cases can take years to resolve as a result of appeals and other legal motions allowed under Canadian law.

Meanwhile, Canada has been caught in the crossfire between the two superpowers. Two Canadians, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested days after Ms. Meng's arrest and remain in jail in China. Canadian exports, including meat and canola have been blocked by China.

[3xBuBu]

A dollar crash is virtually inevitable

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/15/dollar-crash-is-almost-inevitable-asia-expert-stephen-roach-warns.html

The stronger dollar era may be on borrowed time.

Stephen Roach, one of the world’s leading authorities on Asia, is worried a changing global landscape paired with a massive U.S. budget deficit will spark a dollar crash.

“The U.S. economy has been afflicted with some significant macro imbalances for a long time, namely a very low domestic savings rate and a chronic current account deficit,” the former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Monday. “The dollar is going to fall very, very sharply.”

His forecast calls for a 35% drop against other major currencies.

“These problems are going from bad to worse as we blow out the fiscal deficit in the years ahead,” said Roach, a Yale University senior fellow.

The U.S. Dollar Currency Index is up more than one percent over the past two weeks and is relatively flat so far this year. But Roach believes it’s no time to get complacent.

“The national savings rate is probably going to go deeper into negative territory than it has ever done for the United States or any leading economy in economic history,” he said.

Roach contends other forces are at play, too.

‘Lethal combination’
“At the same time, America is walking away from globalization and is focused on decoupling itself from the rest of the world,” said Roach. “That’s a lethal combination.”

The big question: Will it happen quickly or gradually?

His timeline is rough — over the next year or two, maybe more. However, Roach suggests a crash virtually inevitable, and it’s a risk investors shouldn’t ignore.

“Generally, it’s a negative implication for U.S. financial assets,” he added. “It points to the probability of higher inflation as we import more higher cost foreign goods from overseas, and that’s a negative for interest rates.”

He’s concerned a crash could spark a late 1970s-type stagflation crisis, when prices rose sharply while economic growth was muted.

According to Roach, not even a leadership change in Washington in November would be able to move the needle much — especially as lawmakers try to battle the economic impact from the coronavirus crisis with unprecedented stimulus measures.

“Policymakers to their credit have never had to deal with anything close to this disruption,” Roach said.

[3xBuBu]

The stock market is tracing an important reversal pattern

Offsetting this pattern is the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented stimulus

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-is-tracing-an-important-reversal-pattern-that-you-should-watch-2020-06-15?mod=home-page

follow the link below for an annotated chart:

https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-island-reversal-coronavirus-second-wave

Note the following:

• The chart shows that an island was formed by two gaps, one on the left and one on the right.

• The chart shows an Arora sentiment indicator was giving sell signals throughout the formation of the island. (This indicator reached an extreme positive zone during this period.) Sentiment at extremes is a contrary indicator. In plain English, when sentiment becomes extremely positive, it is a sell signal. It is important to note that some publicly available indicators work well, while others do not. In general, we have found that publicly available sentiment indicators do not work well, hence the need for proprietary indicators.

• The chart shows that on the last two days of the island, the smart money — professionals — was selling.

• The chart shows an inside day occurred the day after the island reversal. Further during this inside day, the candle is red. In plain English, this means that the close was below the open in the stock market.

• The chart shows that the stock market is opening up lower after the inside day.

• If the inside day did not occur, it could have nullified the negative implications.

• The chart shows that the volume was very high on the day when the gap was formed on the right side of the chart. This adds to negative potency of the pattern.

• The chart shows that RSI (relative strength index) reached 95 when the island was being formed. This was an extremely overbought level.

• The chart shows that while the island was being formed and prior to the stock market falling, RSI gave a sell signal when it crossed below the moving average shown on the chart.

• In a pane below the volume, the chart shows the S&P 500 ETF SPY, +0.93%, which tracks the benchmark S&P 500 Index. The pattern in the S&P 500 is the same as in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It is important for investors to confirm the pattern by looking at different indices.

• The late stages of the rally have been characterized with strong up moves in travel-related stocks such as airline stocks and cruise-line stock.

• The chart shows American Airlines AAL, -0.23% stock tracing a less ominous pattern. The same is the case with other airlines such as United Airlines UAL, -1.66% and Spirit Airlines SAVE, +4.83%.

• The chart shows Carnival CCL, -2.70% is tracing a pattern that is less ominous. A similar pattern is being shown by Royal Caribbean RCL, -0.57% and Norwegian Cruise Line NCLH, -2.48%.

• Investors have been hiding in the five big tech stocks of Apple AAPL, +1.23%, Amazon AMZN, +1.08%, Microsoft MSFT, +0.63%, Alphabet GOOG, +0.47% GOOGL, +0.55% and Facebook FB, +1.71%. The patterns in these stocks are nowhere near as ominous as in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500.

Putting it all together
Where many investors go wrong with technical analysis is that they do not put in the time and effort needed to learn it. It takes years to get good at it. In this case, it is not just the island reversal pattern, but also the following that are important:

• The size of the gaps.

• The location of the island — in this case after a very strong rally.

• The day after the island is formed and the subsequent day.

• RSI during the time the island is formed.

• Sentiment during the time the island is formed.

• The height of the island — tall islands give stronger signals than shallow islands.

• Volume.

• Duration of the island and many more factors.

Due to the Fed’s actions, more data points are needed before making any definitive conclusions.

[3xBuBu]

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 157.62 points higher on Monday after the blue-chip index fell more than 760 points earlier in the session.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/15/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

The central bank said it would buy individual corporate bonds and signaled a broader approach to corporate bond buying that had remained a matter of speculation until Monday afternoon. The Fed indicated earlier in the spring that it would buy bonds on the primary market, but Monday’s announcement expanded its operations into the secondary market.

[3xBuBu]

Government’s cure for the coronavirus recession is worse for the global economy than the disease

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/governments-cure-for-the-coronavirus-recession-is-worse-for-the-global-economy-than-the-disease-2020-06-12?mod=home-page

A major legacy of the COVID-19 pandemic will be a significant increase in already high global debt levels. In the U.S., government debt is expected to rise to $27 trillion by September 2020 from $23 trillion a year ago — a debt-to-GDP ratio of 135%. In OECD countries, debt levels are expected to increase by $17 trillion, rising from 109% to more than 137% of GDP.

Public sector debt increases reflect higher healthcare spending, actions to alleviate the economic effects of the COVID-19 crisis, emergency loans and the loss of tax revenues. Households and businesses have also substantially increased borrowings to cover income shortfalls. If the recovery is slower than expected, then the rise in borrowings will be greater.

Reducing debt is in order now, and this can be done in five ways:

First, debt can be self-liquidating. Where invested in productive activities, the income generated can pay back interest and principal. The problem is that much of the debt incurred has financed consumption or is otherwise unproductive. Much of the current increase in debt is designed to supplement lost cash flow or facilitate business survival.

Moreover, governments are reluctant to raise revenues through higher taxes to decrease debt levels, fearing a drop in economic activity as well as for ideological reasons.

Second, strong economic growth can help reduce debt. In aggregate, it boosts GDP, decreasing debt as a percentage of the economy or business leverage. Strong growth augments government tax revenues and business income, which helps to pay off borrowings. Unfortunately, growth has been lackluster since 2008, being sustained artificially by low interest rates, liquidity infusions and fiscal deficits.

Growth and debt are now inextricably linked. Increasing amounts of debt are needed to generate growth. Globally, around $2-$3 of new debt are needed to produce each dollar of growth. This means debt is increasing at a faster rate than growth.

Third, high rates of inflation, especially if above the nominal interest rate, can help deleveraging. It increases revenues and reduces the economic purchasing power of the debt. In recent times, inflation levels have remained low due to a mixture of weak demand, overcapacity and changes in industrial structure. Central bank efforts to increase inflation through loose monetary policies have not been successful.

Fourth, nations can engineer currency devaluations to decrease the purchasing power of debt issued in its own currency. In a world where every nation is seeking to devalue to increase export competitiveness as well as reduce debt burdens, this option is difficult.

Fifth, debt can be decreased by default or restructuring, either by bankruptcy or negotiations between debtor and creditor. As debt and savings are two sides of the same coin, this would result in loss of wealth. If debts are written off, then savers are left without resources to meet future commitments. The result is lower consumption, which reduces economic activity.

Debt, then and now
In an environment of low growth and disinflation or deflation, high-debt levels are difficult to manage. The historical precedents are not encouraging.

Between 1914 and 1939, for example, World War I, post-war rebuilding and the Great Depression damaged public finances. Immediately after World War I, U.K. debt rose to 140% of GDP. Attempts to reduce debt through austerity failed. Debt rose to 170% of GDP as economic growth fell, with 1928 output below that of 1918.

Germany, bearing its war losses and reparations, experienced hyperinflation and the destruction of its currency, which reduced its debt burden by 129% of GDP. In the 1930s, countries making up nearly half of global GDP defaulted or entered debt restructuring. The social and economic costs were severe.

After World War II, some countries defaulted or experienced hyperinflation. Others used financial repression, such as negative real rates, controlled lending and deposit rates, capital controls and forcing institutions and households to finance the government at below-market rates, in order to manage debt. Real interest rates in advanced economies were negative roughly half the time between 1945 and 1980. These actions, along with strong growth driven by post-war reconstruction, helped reduce debt levels.

Nowadays, given the limited options, the current debt burden will be managed in the short run through financial repression. Zero- or negative interest rates will make borrowing bearable. Debt will be consolidated onto the government balance sheet. In the current crisis, governments globally have acted as lenders to businesses and individuals. Some loans will be of necessity converted into grants. Student loans or some delinquent mortgages may be assumed by government. In the absence of growth or inflation, default, either explicit or in the form of debasement of the currency to wipe out obligations, may be unavoidable.

Debt is analogous to the effect that ice has on an aircraft. Planes are designed to cope with modest icing on the wings. But large build-ups cause a loss of lift, resulting in erratic flight, loss of altitude — and ultimately a crash. Global debt levels resemble a large buildup of ice on the wings of the global economy and threaten a catastrophic final chapter.

[3xBuBu]

The market’s comeback from coronavirus lows caused two Wall Street greats to change their minds

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/13/top-investors-cite-historic-policy-after-markets-return.html

Few traders have had careers as long and stellar as Stanley Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones.

Rarer still, however, is for both of those investors in the same week to describe themselves as “humbled” by what they’re seeing in the stock market.

But both Druckenmiller and Jones said the S&P 500's robust rally since March left them perplexed and wondering how, amid a global pandemic and civil unrest, the index could have rebounded with such strength.

After all, even with Thursday’s steep losses, the index is up 37% since its March low.

They and others now say that a combination of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus appears to have pacified the market in a way they’ve never seen before.

“Let me tell you, if there was a franchise for humble pie, oh my lord there’d be a mile long to own that because we’ve all had huge gulps of it — me included,” Jones told the New York Economic Club on Wednesday. “You just had unprecedented times in every way, shape or form.”



Druckenmiller, who joined CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Monday, expressed a similar view.

“I’ve been humbled many times in my career, and I’m sure I’ll be many times in the future. And the last three weeks certainly fits that category,” he said.

For those unfamiliar with the two investors, Druckenmiller — who said as recently as mid-May that he thought the market was overvalued — and Jones aren’t the type to change their minds on a whim.

Jones, whose Wall Street fame can be tied back to his brazen and accurate prediction of the October 1987 crash known as “Black Monday,” has made much of his fortune by standing by his convictions.

Bets designed to pay off in times of market duress like Black Monday, when the stock market fell 22% in one day, or ahead of the Great Recession have solidified Jones’ prowess.

Fellow billionaire investor Druckenmiller also isn’t one afraid of taking a contrarian bet if he’s convinced of a good trade. His famous short bet against the British pound in 1992 netted George Soros’ Quantum Fund some $1 billion in profits.

So when Druckenmiller said Monday that he’s been humbled by the market’s rebound and has only returned 3% since the March bottom, others tend to pay attention.

The Fed: They’re ‘everywhere’
Explaining the S&P 500's climb since March is a tricky business with many possible answers, but Jones and Druckenmiller say the gains almost certainly have something to do with Washington.

Congress passed in March the $2.2 trillion CARES Act, a mammoth piece of emergency legislation that sought to inject the U.S. economy with a much-needed cash infusion. The law, unrivaled in American history for its scope and size, came as businesses closed and people sheltered at home to slow the spread of Covid-19.

It provided funding for hospitals and research labs, direct payments of $1,200 to individuals earning up to $75,000 and dramatically expanded jobless benefits for those the millions of Americans who’d find themselves without work in the weeks to come. It also established the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and sought to provide support to many of the smallest businesses in the U.S.

An additional piece of stimulus legislation, the $3.5 trillion HEROES Act passed by House Democrats last month, is stalled in the Senate, where Republicans thus far favor a wait-and-see approach to further fiscal stimulus.

But as helpful as the CARES Act was for individuals and commerce, investors have applauded perhaps even louder for the Federal Reserve. The Fed, led by Chairman Jerome Powell, announced throughout March and April a torrent of new lending powers designed to provide as much liquidity to the credit markets as possible.

This unparalleled response from the Fed has in effect drowned the market in cash and provided business owners with one of the most powerful safety nets in U.S. history, said Prudential Financial market strategist Quincy Krosby.

“Let me put it this way: The Fed’s balance sheet in December 2008 was approximately $880 billion. And then when they finished [with Great Recession stimulus] it was about $4.5 trillion,” she said in a phone interview on Tuesday. “Now this time around, in very, very short order, they’re above $7 trillion.”

But in addition to expanding its balance sheet and asset purchases, the central bank announced its own $2.3 trillion lending program that will extend credit to banks that issue PPP loans and purchase up to $600 billion in loans issued via the Main Street program to mid-sized businesses.

It also said it would expand plans to backstop lending to some of the country’s largest companies by supporting riskier bonds issued by firms that have lost their investment-grade status.

“Think about how fast they moved. And how quickly they moved into every nook and cranny in the market to stabilize financial conditions,” Krosby said of the central bank. “They’re everywhere, they’re everywhere. And they have made it clear they’re not going to stop.”

[3xBuBu]

A 'no-fail situation' for oil CEOs
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/news/power-line-shale-ceo-salaries-oil-price-bp-layoffs-2020-6-1029304777

WTI dropped below 10 in April, 2020


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Remarkably, even as companies head towards bankruptcy, their top execs can get big payouts.

Days before Whiting Petroleum filed for Chapter 11, its board approved a $6.4 million cash bonus for its CEO.
In early May, Chesapeake Energy announced it would pre-pay $25 million of executive bonuses, days before Bloomberg News reported that the natural gas giant was preparing a bankruptcy filing.
Neither company responded to Business Insider's request for comment.

"If you're an oil CEO, you're kind of in a no-fail situation because you get compensated even if you don't make any money," Kelly Mitchell, senior analyst at Documented, told me.

It was a week of whiplash. On Tuesday morning, we reported on the recovering price per barrel. By the afternoon, we wrote that Goldman Sachs was expecting the price to fall — and then it did.

So what's what?

The rise: Oil gained value faster than most Wall Street analysts expected.

In May, US crude oil posted its sharpest monthly gains ever. Today, it's up more than 15% since mid-March.
OPEC+ extended its record supply cuts through July, but the recovery is mostly about rising demand for fuel. Apple data suggest people are driving a lot more.
Demand could fully recover by the end of 2021, Morgan Stanley analysts say.
Some US producers are taking shuttered oil wells back online as a result of the recovery.

The stall: The rally that sent prices surging has stalled as concerns of a second coronavirus outbreak mount.

Oil prices are on track to fall for the first week in about two months.
Good job, Goldman Sachs! The Wall Street bank predicted this earlier in the week.
Goldman analysts said fear of a second outbreak, an enormous oil surplus, and an uncertain future of demand would cause the price to fall in the "coming weeks."
The bank went as far as to call reversing well shut-ins "premature."

BP froze layoffs for 3 months. Now it plans to cut 10,000 workers.

It might have come as good news when BP announced a three-month layoff moratorium back in March, amid the oil market meltdown. But any assurance quickly dried up on Monday, when the London-based company announced that it would cut about 10,000 workers.

BP's chief said it costs about $22 billion a year to run BP, and more than one-third of that budget is allocated to personnel.
"The oil price has plunged well below the level we need to turn a profit," he said in a memo published on LinkedIn. "We are spending much, much more than we make — I am talking millions of dollars, every day."

https://www.etftrends.com/us-shale-oil-energy-sector-etfs-are-still-at-risk/

U.S. Shale Oil, Energy Sector ETFs Are Still at Risk

Exchange traded funds that track the U.S. shale-oil industry could continue to come under pressure from the depressed crude prices due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.

According to the Institute for Economics and Peace, the COVID-19 pandemic has dragged down the price of oil, which will affect political regimes in the Middle East, especially in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran, and it may “result in the collapse of the shale-oil industry in the U.S. unless oil prices return to their prior levels,” MarketWatch reports.

While oil prices have quickly recovered after recently trading in the negative territory for the first time ever, Goldman Sachs warned that the rise in the oil price has been overdone and projects declines in Brent crude prices to $35 a barrel, from around $43 a barrel, in the weeks ahead.

Meanwhile, shale oil, which is produced through fracking or the controversial process of pumping high-pressure water and sand underground to fracture rock and release valuable new energy reserves known as shale, may be particularly affected due to the high cost of extracting oil through this method.

The IEP pointed out that warned that the combined weakness in commercial, travel and industrial activity contributed to the rapid price decline in global oil markets. “These markets were already affected by an oversupply, emanating from Russia and Saudi Arabia who could not agree on production curbs,” it added.

[3xBuBu]

The race for a coronavirus cure is picking up speed.

https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/stock-news/82654109/moderna-viacomcbs-goldman-sachs-stocks-that-def

This summer three experimental vaccines will enter Phase 3 trials, the final stage of testing meant to determine their safety and effectiveness, The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday.
Moderna's vaccine is set to be first, (MRNA)
followed by one co-developed by Oxford University and AstraZeneca PLC (AZN)
and one by Johnson & Johnson. (JNJ)
Moderna shares gained 3.2% Wednesday.

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J&J exec: Our coronavirus vaccine is aiming for a 70% success rate in trials
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jj-coronavirus-vaccine-aims-for-70-success-rate-125444337.html


Emergent (EBS) to Manufacture AstraZeneca's Coronavirus Vaccine

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/emergent-ebs-manufacture-astrazenecas-coronavirus-125112928.html

Small-cap Emergent BioSolutions (NYSE:EBS) has landed another contract to manufacture a possible COVID-19 vaccine, this time with European pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca. Of course, the contract, said to be worth as much as $87 million, hinges on whether AstraZeneca's vaccine gets approved by the Food and Drug Administration for human use.

Emergent is a contract development and manufacturing organization that has relationships with many biotech and pharmaceutical companies (not to mention the federal government). Back in April, it inked a similar deal with Johnson & Johnson worth up to $135 million.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/06/11/emergent-biosolutions-will-manufacture-astrazeneca.aspx


Teva Wins Narcan Patent Battle — Sending Its Biotech Rivals Plunging

https://www.investors.com/news/technology/opioid-overdose-treatment-teva-wins-battle-copy-emergent-narcan/?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo

Emergent BioSolutions (EBS) and Opiant Pharmaceuticals (OPNT) stocks plunged Monday after Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA) won the right to produce a knock-off their opioid overdose treatment, Narcan.

[3xBuBu]

Kyle Bass Eyes 200-to-1 Leverage for New Bet on Hong Kong Crash

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/investinganalysis/kyle-bass-hong-kong-crash-currency/2020/06/10/id/971549/


The Dallas-based founder of Hayman Capital Management is starting a new fund that will make all-or-nothing wagers on a collapse in Hong Kong’s currency peg

Bass, best known for his prescient bet against subprime mortgages before the 2008 financial crisis, will use option contracts to leverage the new fund’s assets by 200 times, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing private information. While the strategy is designed to generate outsized gains if Hong Kong’s currency tumbles against the dollar, investors stand to lose all their money if the peg is still intact after 18 months.

The trade is audacious even for Bass, who profited handsomely during the subprime crisis but has since had less success with doomsday calls on everything from Japanese government bonds to the Chinese yuan. A vocal critic of China’s Communist Party, the 50-year-old investor wrote in a Newsweek op-ed last month that Hong Kong has become “ground zero for the ideological clash between democracy and heavy-handed Chinese communism.”

By taking aim at the city’s currency, Bass is betting he can time the demise of a dollar peg that has survived repeated speculative attacks since 1983 and wrongfooted big-name investors including George Soros.

EWH (HK), EWT(TW), EWY(KR), EWJ(JP), EWM(Malaysia)
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East Asia ETF Breakdown: Hong Kong, Malaysia, And South Korea

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4208155-east-asia-etf-breakdown-hong-kong-malaysia-and-south-korea

This article is to initiate a comparative analysis on exchange-traded funds within the Emerging Market segment. Countries in discussion are Hong Kong, Malaysia, and South Korea. The Malaysia and Hong Kong ETFs are cost efficient options compared to the South Korea one.

[3xBuBu]

Cramer noted Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Paypal, Nike, Apple and Facebook as good stocks to invest in.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-warren-buffett-airlines-bruising-jim-cramer-2020-6-1029303528

Jim Cramer shakes up his Cramer Covid-19 Index

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/26/cramer-shakes-up-his-covid-19-index-wall-street-is-more-confident.html

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Departing

Cramer dropped the following 10 stocks from the index, which span health care, real estate investment trust, exotics (miscellaneous), consumer packaged goods and home entertainment-oriented companies.

Becton Dickinson, -13% from April 24
Digital Realty, -7.79%
Freshpet, -6.73%
Inovio Pharmaceuticals, -0.89%
Inseego, -14.03%
Kimberly-Clark, -4%
NextEra Energy, -2.25%
Owens & Minor, 0.55%
Roku, -13.81%
Snap, 8.81%

“I am dropping 10 of the worst performers, replacing them with stocks that are better suited to this moment and more relevant,” Cramer said, adding that “some of these [former picks] are duplicative” of other stocks in the index.
Newcomers

DataDog, 69.82% from April 24
Splunk, 40.83%
Twilio, 78.63%
Etsy, 11.92%
Wix.com, 56.12%
Chegg, 57.33%
Target, 6.77%
S&P Global, 10%
Palo Alto Networks, 19.5%
Emergent BioSolutions, 14.61%

“With those 10 changes, I’m feeling pretty better about the Cramer Covid-19 Index,” Cramer said. “But — and this is a very big but — if the reopening goes smoothly and the economy comes roaring back, we’re going to need to abandon this whole index and swap into a totally different cohort of recovery stocks.”

“I don’t think we’re there yet, although I’m working on a separate recovery index so that we’ll be ready when it happens,” he said.

[3xBuBu]

Dow closes nearly 500 points higher as stocks make partial rebound from worst day in three months

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-futures-surge-nearly-600-points-friday-as-stock-market-attempts-to-rebound-from-worst-day-since-mid-march-2020-06-12?mod=home-page

Rising U.S. coronavirus cases raise questions about speed of economic recovery

On Thursday all three indexes saw their sharpest one-day drops since March 16. The S&P 500 and the Dow finished at their lowest levels since May 26, while the Nasdaq ended at its lowest since May 29, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

For the week, the Dow lost 5.55%, the S&P 500 fell 4.8%, and the Nasdaq was off 2.33%.

Some analysts characterize the rebound Friday from Thursday’s slump as unlikely to be sustainable.

Investors are assessing the state of the stock-market’s 10-week rally, a day after equity indexes registered a bruising decline prompted by fears of a resurgence in the coronavirus pandemic in the U.S. and a bleak economic outlook from the head of the Federal Reserve.

Indeed, the International Monetary Fund’s Gita Gopinath said that the global economy is recovering more slowly than expected and faces “significant scarring,” Bloomberg News reported. In a video released Friday but recorded June 4, Gopinath said the IMF will release updated growth projections on June 24 that will likely be worse than April projections for a global contraction of 3%, if the disease lingers.

Fears of an emerging second wave of the epidemic in the U.S. persist, with half a dozen states, including Texas and Arizona, facing rising infections of COVID-19. Arizona, Utah and New Mexico all posted rises in new cases of 40% or higher, while Florida, Arkansas, South Carolina and North Carolina saw cases rise by more than 30% for the week ended June 7, on a rolling seven-day basis, according to Reuters.

Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin on Friday, during a webcast panel discussion sponsored by the Virginia Tech Office of Economic Development, said that the pandemic could have effects that last beyond the next couple of months and cautioned that some of the millions of jobs that have been lost during the viral outbreak may never return, echoing similar remarks made by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday.
5D15min__

5D15min__

[3xBuBu]

Dow plunging more than 1,800 points

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/10/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html


Stocks suffered their biggest one-day pull-back in three months on Thursday as traders grew concerned about the number of coronavirus cases increasing in some states that are reopening up from lockdowns.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 1,861.82 points, or 6.9%, to close at 25,128.17. The S&P 500 slid 5.7% to 3,002.10 while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 5.3%. to end the day at 9,492.73. The major averages posted their worst day since March 16, when they all dropped more than 11%. The S&P 500 also logged in its first three-day losing streak since early March.

TVIX up 65% today!



Steven Mnuchin Says White House Considering Second Round of Stimulus Payments

https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/stock-news/82644535/steven-mnuchin-says-white-house-considering-second

Mr. Mnuchin said he had discussed with President Trump the idea of additional stimulus payments, though no decision had been made yet on whether to advocate for them in the next bill.

"It's something that we're very seriously considering," he told reporters during an online question-and-answer session Thursday.

Congress provided an initial round of onetime payments of $1,200 for most adults and $500 for children under age 17 as part of the Cares Act enacted in March. The Internal Revenue Service said it has distributed payments to all eligible Americans for whom it has sufficient information, totaling $267 billion.

That money helped households fill holes in their budgets and propped up consumer spending as the economy struggled in April and May. The House of Representatives voted for a second round of payments last month as part of its $3.5 trillion economic-relief package. Those payments would be larger, offering $1,200 each for up to three children instead of $500. The Democratic proposal also covers groups left out of the first round of payments, such as college students, adult dependents and households that include undocumented immigrants.

Mr. Mnuchin also said it is extremely unlikely that parts of the U.S. economy will need to shut down again, despite a surge in coronavirus cases in some parts of the country. Mr. Mnuchin said he expected officials will make sufficient medical progress between now and the end of the year, including more widespread testing and effective viral treatments, that will support safe reopening of the economy.

"Could there be some rare, extreme scenario that occurs that, based upon medical advice, the president does" close down the economy, he said. "I think that's extremely unlikely."

The Trump administration and lawmakers are weighing how much additional support to provide in the months ahead, a decision that depends on how quickly the U.S. economy snaps back this summer. Recent data, including an encouraging May jobs report and steadily falling initial jobless claims, suggest an upturn has already started, though many economists expect a long, slow recovery.

Mr. Mnuchin emphasized that economic relief in the next measure should be targeted at industries and businesses that face a more difficult recovery. But his comments suggest the administration is sympathetic to the idea of more aid for struggling workers and families, despite concerns from some Republicans over additional spending that would push deficits even higher.

Congress has already provided about $3.3 trillion of spending and tax breaks, including the stimulus payments, emergency small-business loans and enhanced unemployment benefits.

Mr. Mnuchin said it was premature to speculate on the overall size of the next relief package.

[3xBuBu]

Concerns about a second wave of coronavirus cases have risen as U.S. states push deeper into reopening. Texas has reported three consecutive days of record-breaking Covid-19 hospitalizations. Nine California counties are reporting a spike in new coronavirus cases or hospitalizations of confirmed cases, AP reported Wednesday.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/10/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

On Wednesday, investors assessed the Federal Reserve’s updates on the economy and monetary policy. The policymakers voted unanimously to keep interest rates unchanged and indicated no rate increases through 2022.


“The Fed understands we are just in the beginning phases of the economic recovery and making rash changes to policy or forward guidance is premature at this time,” Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management, said in an email.

The Fed also said it will at least maintain the current pace of bond purchases for the coming months. Additionally, it expects the U.S. economy to contract by 6.5% in 2020 before expanding by 5% in 2021.

Investors are awaiting the new jobless claim data for the week ending June 6, which is set to come out at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect filings for unemployment insurance claims to total 1.595 million last week, which is down from 1.775 million in the week before.


https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/10/politics/donald-trump-gallup-approval/index.html

Trump's job approval in the new Gallup data is at 39%, which is bad but not the big story. That big story is the fact that Trump's new numbers represent a double-digit tumble from a Gallup poll just two weeks ago in which his approval stood at 49%.

But Gallup's numbers are far from an outlier. The latest CNN poll, released earlier this week, put Trump's approval at 38% -- down from 45% in May. An NPR/PBS/Marist poll put Trump's job approval at 42%. (Those national numbers are reflected in swing state polling too. Recent polls in Ohio, Arizona, Texas and Michigan, among others, show significant problems for Trump in a head-to-head matchup with presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden.)


https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/10/politics/trump-campaign-cnn-poll/index.html

President Donald Trump's reelection campaign sent a cease-and-desist letter to CNN demanding a retraction and apology for a recent poll that showed him behind presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.

The demand contained numerous incorrect and misleading claims and was immediately rejected by the network.
"To my knowledge, this is the first time in its 40-year history that CNN had been threatened with legal action because an American politician or campaign did not like CNN's polling results," David Vigilante, CNN's executive vice president and general counsel, wrote in a letter to the Trump campaign.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/10/politics/georgia-voting-issues-black-voters/index.html

Black voters in Georgia say the state's primary meltdown was no accident

Tuesday's meltdown of the voting system in Georgia -- a potential presidential battleground in November -- has sparked widespread concerns about voter disenfranchisement and charges by activists that Republican state officials engaged in efforts to suppress the vote in predominantly African American communities.

The troubles in Georgia were most harshly felt in heavily African American counties in and around Atlanta, where some defective machines set off scrambles for provisional ballots, which were in short supply. There were also widespread cases of voters across the state reporting that their absentee ballots showed up late -- or not at all -- for a primary election twice-delayed by the coronavirus pandemic.

[3xBuBu]

OPEC and Russia Agree to Extend Oil Production Cuts
The original deal would have allowed increases starting next month. The new pact reflects producers’ concerns that the oil market could fall apart again.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/06/business/energy-environment/opec-russia-oil-coronavirus.html

[EquityMonster83]

MCS similar play to MGM but calls are cheaper.