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Monday, 05/11/2009 6:11:06 PM

Monday, May 11, 2009 6:11:06 PM

Post# of 72979
1/VIX & SPX - 200-MA: so close, yet so far ...

Major resistance still holds price ever so close to daily 200-EMA. At this point, it will become increasingly difficult for SPX to reach its 200-daily MA (i.e.: reversal patterns forming in RSI, MACD, ADX, 1/VIX, and volume - see charts below).

First chart points to the critical point at which VIX's reciprocal (and market consensus) favors a decline as we go forward.

Second chart point to the significant 50% Fib level (approx. $141), which price strives to attain.

Third chart relates current price to dominant down-trend channel.

Overall, there are several technicals that point to unlikely rally, and favor decline. Whether the price makes it to its 200-EMA may be less relevant for those already short and expiration beyond this month.










D.

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