The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits each week is still shockingly high if the government’s math adds up, but some economists are starting to wonder.
After a rapid decline in late April and May, the historically high level of initial jobless claims only fell 4% to 1.51 million in the seven days ended June 13. It was the smallest percentage drop in new claims filed traditionally through state unemployment offices since the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic.
By all rights, weekly claims should have fallen even faster and dropped below the 1 million mark by now, economists say. There was a record loss of jobs in March and April, and a rebound in employment in May as the economy began to reopen.
An actual, or unadjusted 18.7 million people were getting benefits as of the first week of June. If more Americans are returning to their jobs, continuing claims should decline more rapidly.
And as bad as those numbers are, they are even worse if jobless claims filed through an temporary federal-relief program are included. An unadjusted 29.2 million people were reportedly receiving benefits as of May 30, the most recent data available.
In the three months since a slew of programs were announced, the Fed has loaned out just $143 billion, or a mere 6.2% of its total firepower. The most ambitious initiative, the Main Street Lending Program, has yet to make a loan, according to the most recent Fed balance sheet data, though officials expect that to change in a matter of days.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.