Option Millionaires

[uranium-pinto-beans]

Coupa Software: Shareholder HMI Capital Management sends letter to COUP mgmt, says would support valuation of $95/share in deal

[jimmybob]

Morning Watch List : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/december-5th-2022-watch-list/

[uranium-pinto-beans]

TSLA

On December 5, there was news that due to insufficient demand, the Tesla Shanghai Factory will actively reduce production by 20%. In response, the relevant person in Tesla China responded to the reporter who reported the report as “ false information ”. At the same time, according to the sales data released by Tesla on the evening of December 5, Tesla delivered a breakthrough of 100,000 vehicles in the Chinese market in November, with a chain growth of about 40% and a year-on-year growth of 89%.
On December 5, there was news that Tesla planned to reduce the output of its Shanghai factory. This move shows once again that the demand in the Chinese market has not met Tesla's expectations. Tesla planned to reduce production this month by the Tesla Model Y model. The production reduction will take effect as soon as possible this week. It is expected that this move may reduce the output of the Tesla Shanghai Factory this month by about 20%. The news also stated that this production reduction was the first time Tesla voluntarily reduced the output of the Shanghai factory.
“ false information. ”The relevant person in Tesla China responded to the reporter who reported on the evening of December 5 that after internal confirmation, it can be made clear that none of the above claims about production cuts are true.
“ sells 100,000 vehicles per month, which is the latest answer for the Shanghai Super Factory. ”According to relevant sources in Tesla China, according to the estimated sales data released by the Multiplication Association, Tesla’s delivery in November 2022 exceeded 100,000 vehicles, a chain-by-charge increase of about 40%, a year-on-year increase of 89%. As a result, with the efforts of 99.9% of the localized team composed of Chinese, the Tesla Shanghai Super Factory has delivered more than 650,000 new energy vehicles in 2022.
The relevant people in Tesla China pointed out that with the end of the new energy state subsidy on December 31 and the introduction of Tesla’s December time-limited welfare, Tesla electric vehicles continued to sell under the influence of multiple factors.
It is worth noting that Tesla said that its “ counter-rules ” broke the traditional international automobile brand pricing logic, allowing Chinese consumers to purchase Tesla Model 3 and Model Y new cars at a better global price. Bring practical benefits for green travel. Taking the Tesla Model Y rear wheel drive version as an example, the model's selling price in China is 288,900 yuan, which is lower than the RMB-equivalent Singapore's selling price of 738,400 yuan and the UK's selling price of 443,100 yuan. The price is nearly 200,000 yuan lower.
In terms of energy replenishment, Tesla China stated that Tesla has built more than 1,400 supercharge stations, 9,600 supercharge piles, and more than 700 destination charging stations and more than 1,900 destination charging piles in China. The energy supply network, and opened the integrated supercharge station for light storage in Lhasa and Shanghai,Explore the balance between local energy production and energy use.
As Tesla’s largest competitor in China’s new energy automobile market, on December 2, Badi released November’s new energy sales data. Badi sold 230,400 new energy vehicles that month, compared with 91,200 in the same period last year. In the first 11 months of 2022, Badi’s new energy vehicle sales were 1.628 million, an increase of 219% over the same period last year%.
There are analysts in the automotive industry who analyze reporters. At present, Biadi and Tesla are fighting against each other in the Chinese market, while achieving share growth will not change for the time being. This is a benign competition. It is the whole China New Energy Car market. Strong development support.
 
According to the forecast of the board of directors, in November, the domestic retail sales of narrow passenger cars are expected to be 1.86 million, an increase of 2.4% year-on-year and an increase of 0.9%. Among them, the retail sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to be 600,000, an increase of 58.5% year-on-year, an increase of 8.2% in chain, and a penetration rate of 32.3%. At the same time, according to the China-Vapor Association's forecast, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in my country are expected to exceed 6.5 million in 2022.
“ The development of my country's new energy automotive industry has begun to enter a new stage of marketization focusing on meeting consumer needs. ”Jianhua, deputy secretary general of the China-Vietnam Association, believes that in the next two years, my country's new energy vehicles will continue to maintain good development in both quality and quantity.
Ping An Securities stated in a research report that the withdrawal of new energy car subsidies is expected to cause some overdraft to the demand for new energy vehicles in the first quarter of 2023, but the new energy vehicle purchase tax reduction policy will be backed off in 2024, and it is expected that the new energy vehicle sales will be formed in 2023. Some support.

[uranium-pinto-beans]

Chinese tech stocks were up in Monday's premarket activity as Beijing, Shenzhen, and other Chinese cities began easing COVID-19 testing requirements and quarantine rules.
China is also expected to announce a nationwide easing of its heavy COVID-19 curbs by as early as Wednesday, Reuters reported Monday, citing sources familiar with the matter.
Shares of Alibaba Group (BABA) went up 4.49%, Baidu (BIDU) popped 4.67%, Pinduoduo (PDD) added 4.24%, while Bilibili (BILI) surged 16.13%.

[uranium-pinto-beans]

Upgrades

Wells Fargo upgraded Comcast (CMCSA) to Equal Weight from Underweight with a price target of $38, up from $30. The firm is less negative on the company's cable outlook with slower EBITDA growth but also clearer capex. However, the firm is more negative on NBC Universal and is below Street estimates on free cash flow. Net/net, the firm now thinks Comcast is de-risked and sees fair value at $38 per share. While broadband competition is increasing, the firm notes it's not creating all the bad trends the firm had feared.
Daiwa upgraded Crowdstrike (CRWD) to Buy from Outperform with a price target of $181, down from $193. Although the quarter's operating results looked solid, the firm notes management's weakening outlook commentary and tepid guidance weighed on investor sentiment. However, the firm significantly raised the firm's non-GAAP earnings estimates for fiscal years 2023 and 2024 due to better operating margins driven by good cost control. The firm now sees 46% upside in Crowdstrike shares.
Downgrades

Deutsche Bank downgraded Starbucks (SBUX) to Hold from Buy with a price target of $106, up from $100. The firm is making a risk/reward and valuation call on the shares, saying there is not much more to it than that. The firm is truly neutral at current levels; neither positive nor negative. A bull case could emerge for $5 per share in adjusted earnings per share, equating to a $125 stock price over time, but the offsetting risk here is of course that the potential U.S. recession dynamic has not gone away.
Morgan Stanley downgraded First Republic (FRC) to Underweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $102, down from $109, as the firm initiated coverage of 12 midcap banks and took over coverage of several others. The firm prefers to be positioned in names that are best-equipped to manage the headwinds from tightening liquidity conditions as rates rise, and has Underweight ratings on three - First Republic, Silvergate (SI) and SVB Financial (SIVB) - that the firm sees having the most funding pressure due to idiosyncratic factors.
Others

Citi initiated coverage of Alaska Air (ALK) with a Buy rating and $55 price target. The firm notes the carrier's strong pricing, traffic flow from its partner airlines, and re-fleeting look attractive. The firm says these attributes could help Alaska Air offset the headwinds facing the airline industry in 2023.
Goldman initiated coverage of Day One Biopharmaceuticals (DAWN) with a Buy rating and $45 price target. The firm notes Day One is a clinical stage biotechnology company developing tovorafenib for pediatric low-grade glioma, the most common childhood brain tumor. The firm is positive into the upcoming Phase 2 FIREFLY-1 data in Q1 of 2023 to confirm tovorafenib's best-in-class profile.

[jimmybob]

UPB in da HIZZLE

[jimmybob]

Intuitive Surgical price target raised to $316 from $247 at BTIG
BTIG analyst Ryan Zimmerman raised the firm's price target on Intuitive Surgical to $316 from $247 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a broader research note on Medical Technology. 2023 is set to be a better year for the industry following 2022 underperformance due to rising oil prices, a challenging supply chain, currency headwinds, inflation, and staffing shortages, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Lower oil prices, improving inflation, strong employment, and improving procedure recovery form the basis for his better outlook in MedTech in 2023, Zimmerman adds

[jimmybob]

GGM FOLKSSSSSS

[uranium-pinto-beans]

The PBoC's recent 50-bps reserve requirement ratio cut took effect today.
European Central Bank policymaker Makhlouf said that the ECB should announce at least a 50-bps rate hike at the conclusion of the December meeting. ECB policymaker Centeno said that the inflation peak could be reached in Q4 while France's Finance Minister Le Maire said that reaching the inflationary peak could take "some months."
S&P affirmed France's AA rating but lowered the outlook to Negative from Stable while Moody's affirmed France's AA rating and maintained a Stable outlook.
Fitch affirmed Spain's A rating with a Stable outlook.
China's November Caixin Services PMI fell to 46.7 from 48.4 (expected 48.0).
Japan's November Services PMI rose to 50.3 from 50.0 (expected 50.0).
India's November Nikkei Services PMI rose to 56.4 from 55.1 (expected 55.4).
Singapore's October Retail Sales were up 0.1% m/m (last 3.2%) and up 10.4% yr/yr (last 11.3%).
Hong Kong's November Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 from 49.3.
Australia's November Services PMI fell to 47.6 from 49.3 (expected 47.2) and AIG Construction Index rose to 48.2 from 43.3. Q3 Company Gross Operating Profits were down 12.4% qtr/qtr (expected 0.3%; last 7.8%). Q3 Business Inventories were up 1.7% qtr/qtr (last 0.5%).
Eurozone's October Retail Sales were down 1.8% m/m (expected -1.7%; last 0.8%) and down 2.7% yr/yr (expected -2.6%; last -0.6%). November Services PMI fell to 48.5 from 48.6 (expected 48.6). December Sentix Investor Confidence improved to -21.0 from -30.9 (expected -27.6).
U.K.'s November Services PMI remained at 48.8, as expected.
Germany's November Services PMI fell to 46.1 from 46.5 (expected 46.4).
France's November Services PMI fell to 49.3 from 51.7 (expected 49.4).
Italy's November Services PMI rose to 49.5 from 46.4 (expected 48.3).
Spain's November Services PMI rose to 51.2 from 49.7 (expected 50.5).

[uranium-pinto-beans]

Crude reality

A price cap on Russian seaborne oil came into force on Monday as the West attempts to curb revenue flows to Moscow's war machine. After intense negotiations, G7 nations and Australia agreed to a $60 per barrel price level, with an adjustment mechanism that keeps the cap at least 5% below the market rate and allows for revisions every two months. Crude remains Russia's economic lifeblood, especially after the country put a stop to natural gas sales to Europe (a move that was first attributed to maintenance problems and later to sanctions).

How it works: The deal allows Russian oil to be shipped to third-party countries using G7 and EU tankers, only if the cargo is bought at or below the $60 per barrel cap. The level is seen as high enough to cover production costs and encourage more output, though Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy slammed the agreement, calling it "quite comfortable for the budget of a terrorist state." G7 insurance companies, credit institutions and transport services will also have to observe the price ceiling, which is important as 95% of the world's oil tanker fleet is covered by the International Group of P&I Clubs in London and companies based in continental Europe.

While the industry is still awaiting a complete response from Russia, the Kremlin has said it will redirect its oil supply to "market-oriented partners" even if that means it will have to cut production. A presidential decree would also prohibit loadings destined for any countries that adopt the restrictions, and ban any reference to a price cap in contracts for Russian crude or oil products. "We are working on mechanisms to prohibit the use of a price cap instrument, regardless of what level is set, because such interference could further destabilize the market," said Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.

Outlook: Russia is the world's second-largest oil exporter, meaning how the situation plays out could influence prices in the months ahead. Many analysts still say that Russia has enough of a shadow fleet to skirt the sanctions, meaning more shipments will be rerouted, which is already happening across global crude markets. While that could keep oil prices at current levels, or even depress them based on demand factors, others are more fearful about the future, saying that a drop in Russian sales or output could lead to a surge in crude and gasoline prices worldwide. (19 comments)

OPEC+ unchanged

The direction of crude oil is growing even more uncertain after OPEC+ decided on Sunday to keep its oil production target unchanged at its latest meeting. The group said there were just too many unknowns to tinker with policy at the moment, such as the G7 oil price cap, recession worries and China easing its zero-COVID policy that has battered its fuel demand. China's Xi Jinping will also head to Saudi Arabia this Thursday to meet Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, which could be another pivotal moment for global energy markets (the two economies represent the world's biggest oil importer and exporter).

Market movement: WTI crude oil futures (CL1:COM) have declined 12% over the past month, and are down 30% over the last six months, but have risen 5% over the past week - and a total of 7% YTD - to around $80 per barrel.

OPEC already slashed production by 2M barrels per day in early October, and while crude briefly topped $90 per barrel as a knee-jerk reaction, it retreated to as low as $73 just a week ago. The output cut was a blow to White House-led efforts to boost production, with the Biden administration confirming it would release additional output from Strategic Petroleum Reserve as needed and then replenish the reserve. Oil volatility is likely to continue in the sessions to come, given the unpredictability of supply and demand.

Go deeper: The next official meeting of OPEC+ is in June, but a gathering of the group's Joint Monitoring Committee - led by Saudi Arabia and Russia - will meet in February, and can call a ministerial production meeting if there are any major shifts in the market. (84 comments)

Survey Monday

With oil trading back at $80, and many new developments taking place in crude markets, what next price level is U.S. West Texas Intermediate likely to hit first?

· $70 (macro headwinds are deteriorating the outlook)
· $90 (fundamentals are strong and improving)

Take the survey and see the results here

iVersify

While China continues to loosen its COVID restrictions, one company is growing nervous about how reliant it has become on the world's second-largest economy. The country has been a key piece of how Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) transformed into becoming the world's most valuable company, with a supply chain and outsourcing strategy that has been in place since the late 1990s. The tech giant is now looking elsewhere in Asia, like India and Vietnam, but challenges await and the task won't be easy.

Backdrop: Turmoil at Apple supplier Foxconn's (OTCPK:FXCOF) iPhone factory in the city of Zhengzhou drew attention last month as videos of worker riots were shared on social media. It's unclear how many of the 300,000 employees at "iPhone City" were involved, but Apple has flagged "lower iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max shipments" due to prior curbs at the complex, which includes dormitory accommodations and is responsible for around 80% of global iPhone output. Besides iPhone assembly, many Apple components are made in China, with some estimating that 95% of total iPhone supply still comes from the country.

"In the past, people didn't pay attention to concentration risks," noted Alan Yeung, former U.S. Director of Strategic Initiatives at Foxconn. "Free trade was the norm and things were very predictable. Now we've entered a new world."

Fun fact: Operating profit for Apple's China business totaled $31B last year, which was more than the figures for each of China's largest tech giants - Alibaba (BABA), Baidu (BIDU), Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACY).

Trade dispute

Green tensions are spilling into the open ahead of a U.S.-EU ministerial meeting today of the Trade and Technology Council. The bloc claims that the Americans aren't creating a level playing field, with much of the $370B Inflation Reduction Act going towards clean technology. The green energy subsidies and tax breaks are aimed at boosting domestic production for U.S. companies as the government plows billions into businesses involved in electric vehicle technology and the energy transition.

Quote: "The new assertive industrial policy of our competitors requires a structural answer," declared Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission. "There is a risk that the Inflation Reduction Act could lead to unfair competition, could close markets and fragment critical supply chains. We must take action to rebalance the playing field... to improve our state aid frameworks. In other words: We need to do our homework in Europe and at the same time work with the U.S. to mitigate competitive disadvantages."

Things are looking even more intense after the head of the European Parliament's trade committee said that elements of Inflation Reduction Act would mean that the EU needs to file a complaint at the World Trade Organization. It's not only about luring investors away from Europe, but also shutting out European companies that could benefit from the tax breaks and subsidies that are only available for U.S.-based businesses. Some even think that things could quickly morph into a trade war if things cannot be settled diplomatically.

More assertive policies: "We are very careful to avoid distortions in our single market, but we must also be responsive to the increasing global competition on clean tech," von der Leyen continued. "If we see that investments in strategic sectors are leaking away from the EU, this would only undermine the single market. That is why we are now reflecting on how to simplify and adapt our state aid rules."

Today's Markets

In Asia, Japan +1.8%. Hong Kong +4.5%. China +1.8%. India -0.1%.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.3%. Paris -0.4%. Frankfurt -0.5%.
Futures at 6:30, Dow -0.4%. S&P -0.4%. Nasdaq -0.2%. Crude +1.4% to $80.92. Gold flat at $1808.90. Bitcoin +2% to $17,306.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +1 bps to 3.51%

Today's Economic Calendar

9:45 PMI Composite Final
10:00 Factory Orders
10:00 ISM Service Index
12:30 PM Investor Movement Index

Companies reporting earnings today »

What else is happening...

Space industry in focus amid NASA's Artemis I return flyby of the Moon.

Vandalism leaves many Duke Energy (DUK) customers without power.

Post-FTX: JPMorgan still sees a need for centralized crypto exchanges.

Vodafone (VOD) CEO Nick Read to step down at the end of 2022.

Elon Musk says Apple (AAPL) has 'fully resumed' advertising on Twitter.

Tesla (TSLA) to cut Shanghai production amid slow demand - Bloomberg.

Florida working to let Disney (DIS) avoid 'Don't Say Gay' fallout - FT.

FTC rift may provide path for $69B Microsoft (MSFT)-Activision (ATVI) deal.

[uranium-pinto-beans]

Rent-A-Center initiated with a Buy at Craig-Hallum
Craig-Hallum analyst Alex Fuhrman initiated coverage of Rent-A-Center with a Buy rating and $40 price target, calling it "best-in-class" among Lease-To-Own, or LTO, companies.

[uranium-pinto-beans]

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has warned that pension funds and other 'non-bank' financial firms now have more than $80 trillion of hidden, off-balance sheet dollar debt in the form of FX swaps.

[uranium-pinto-beans]

Japan's Nikkei: +0.2%
Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +4.5%
China's Shanghai Composite: +1.8%
India's Sensex: -0.1%
South Korea's Kospi: -0.6%
Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.3%

[uranium-pinto-beans]

Insider Trading: notable purchases -- Director adds to IOVA; notable sales -- CEO active in CROX
Buyers:

IOVA Director bought 10,000,000 shares at ~$6.50 worth ~$65 mln.
RYI Director bought 10,000 shares at $29.87 - $30.945 worth ~$304K.
Sellers:

AKRO Director sold 23,131 shares at $46.28 - $47.93 worth ~$1.1 mln.
ANIP 10% owner sold 200,000 shares at ~$38.50 worth ~$7.7 mln.
CROX CEO sold 10,000 shares at $100.00 - $100.01 worth ~$1000K.
CRVL Chairman sold 7,000 shares at $152.00 - $154.2343 worth ~$1.1 mln.
H Director / Executive Vice President, Group President-ASPAC sold 6,117 shares at $99.88 - 100.01 worth ~$611K.
HOLX Chairman, President and CEO sold 33,500 shares at $75.00 - $76.17 worth ~$2.5 mln.
KDP Director sold 154,734 shares at $38.57 - $38.80 worth ~$6 mln.
MSFT EVP, Chief Commercial Officer sold 24144 shares at $250.99 - $256.07 worth ~$6.1 mln.
MTSI 10% owner / Director sold 100,000 shares at $68.00 - $68.999 worth ~$6.8 mln.
VTYX 10% owner / Director sold 272,545 shares at $29.00 - $29.54 worth ~$7.9 mln.
XPEL Director sold 10,000 shares at $68.50 worth ~$685K.

[uranium-pinto-beans]

Foxconn sees COVID-hit China plant back at full output in late Dec-early Jan -source

[uranium-pinto-beans]

premarket gappers
Gapping up:
SGML +7.1%, ALGM +5.7%, TXMD +5.2%, XPO +4.9%, CUBE +4.2%, WE +3.8%, NUVA +3.1%, CS +3%, SMTC +2.8%, PCH +1.2%, NVS +1.1%, VALE +0.8%, AES +0.7%
Gapping down:
CMPX -3.8%, LAAA -1.7%, SPY -0.3%, IWM -0.3%, QQQ -0.3%, DIA -0.3%

[uranium-pinto-beans]

Tesla Set to Cut Shanghai Output in Sign of Sluggish Demand

[uranium-pinto-beans]

Lyft price target lowered to $45 from $57 at Citi
Citi analyst Itay Michaeli lowered the firm's price target on Lyft to $45 from $57 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The analyst says that while the company's Q3 data points "were less than encouraging " regarding active riders, market share, service levels and insurance costs and do prompt reduced long-term estimates, the headwinds are reflected in the stock's current valuation. With seemingly low expectations post Q3, Lyft's risk/reward skews positively, Michaeli tells investors in a research note.

[uranium-pinto-beans]

The Housing Boom Is Over. But Housing Stocks Could Still Be Winners.

[uranium-pinto-beans]

FTX Founder Sam Bankman-Fried Says He Can’t Account for Billions Sent to Alameda

[jimmybob]

Have a few 15 day trials to optionmillionaires.com - for information send an email to [e-mail] with ‘trial’ in the header - first come basis

[jimmybob]

$RARE $40s

[jimmybob]

PTON $13.20s

[jimmybob]

RARE $39 tap

[budgetthis]

This BUD’s for you !! A toast to December !!

Plus, the horses are cool……

$$ BUD $$

[uranium-pinto-beans]

NYSE market internals summary
Volume is above average for this time of day. Breadth is mixed with issues and volume bearish while new highs to new lows are bullish (positive divergence). Advancing Issues: 1002 / Declining Issues: 1984 -- for a ratio of 0.5 to 1. Advancing Volume: 563,084,000 / Declining Volume: 622,372,000 -- for a ratio of 0.9 to 1. New 52-Week Highs: 42 / New 52-Week Lows: 40.

[uranium-pinto-beans]

Marvell (MRVL 42.79, -2.61, -5.8%): weakest performer among chipmakers, falling from a four-week high back to its 50-day moving average (41.58) after missing Q3 expectations and issuing below-consensus EPS and revenue guidance for Q4. Needham and Cowen lowered their respective targets for the stock to $50 and $55.
PayPal (PYPL 75.51, -3.02, -3.9%): falling toward its November low (71.17).
Fortinet (FTNT 53.47, -1.91, -3.5%): weakest performer in the sector, falling from a two-week low toward its 50-day moving average (52.17).
NVIDIA (NVDA 165.87, -5.48, -3.2%): slipping from its best level since late August.
AMD (AMD 75.04, -2.44, -3.2%): falling from its best level since mid-September.
Intel (INTC 29.01, -0.82, -2.8%): falling toward its 50-day moving average (27.83).
Salesforce (CRM 143.75, -3.25, -2.2%): slipping toward yesterday's intraday low (142.08). Wolfe Research downgraded the stock to Peer Perform from Outperform.
Micron (MU 54.36, -1.13, -2.0%): falling past its 50-day moving average (55.09).
Broadcom (AVGO 540.00, -10.75, -2.0%): slipping from its best level since mid-August toward its 200-day moving average (532.60).
Applied Materials (AMAT 105.53, -1.48, -1.4%): fell past its 200-day moving average (104.93) before reclaiming that level.
Apple (AAPL 146.20, -2.11, -1.4%): falling back to its 50-day moving average (145.73).
Oracle (ORCL 83.01, -1.10, -1.3%): falling from its best level since late January.
Microsoft (MSFT 251.63, -3.06, -1.2%): sliding toward the middle of its range from Wednesday.
Enphase Energy (ENPH 334.46, +20.46, +6.5%): best performer in the sector, rallying to a fresh record high.

[jimmybob]

U $42s soon

[jimmybob]

$ULTA upgrades:

PT raised to $545 from $490 at DA Davidson - keeps Buy rating
PT raised to $607 from $589 at $DB - keeps Buy rating
PT raised to $550 from $500 at Baird - keeps Outperform rating
PT raised to $500 from $480 at $C - keeps Neutral rating
PT raised to $535 from $505 at Oppenheimer - keeps Outperform rating
PT raised to $570 from $525 at Piper Sandler - keeps Overweight rating

[jimmybob]

PTON $12s

[uranium-pinto-beans]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-seen-heading-oil-policy-rollover-cut-not-ruled-out-2022-12-02/

[uranium-pinto-beans]

Nonfarm payroll growth (263,000) was higher than expected in November, the unemployment rate held near a 50-year low of 3.7%, and average hourly earnings increased at a robust 0.6% month-over-month, leaving them up 5.1% year-over-year.

The key takeaway from the report is mixed. The report itself is good news from an economic standpoint, yet the market sees it as bad news, thinking it will push out any eventual pivot by the Fed with its monetary policy. In brief, it is a report that screams higher for longer with respect to the target range for the fed funds rate.

November nonfarm payrolls increased by 263,000 (Briefing.com consensus 200,000). The 3-month average for total nonfarm payrolls decreased to 272,000 from 282,000. October nonfarm payrolls revised to 284,000 from 261,000.September nonfarm payrolls revised to 269,000 from 315,000.
November private sector payrolls increased by 221,000 (Briefing.com consensus 200,000). October private sector payrolls revised to 248,000 from 233,000. September private sector payrolls revised to 255,000 from 319,000.
November unemployment rate was 3.7% (Briefing.com consensus 3.7%), versus 3.7% in October. Persons unemployed for 27 weeks or more accounted for 20.6% of the unemployed versus 19.5% in October. The U6 unemployment rate, which accounts for unemployed and underemployed workers, was 6.7% versus 6.8% in October.
November average hourly earnings were up 0.6% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) versus an upwardly revised 0.5% (from 0.4%) in October. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen 5.1%, versus 4.9% for the 12 months ending in October.
The average workweek in November was 34.4 hours (Briefing.com consensus 34.5), versus 34.5 hours in October. Manufacturing workweek decreased 0.2 hour to 40.2 hours. Factory overtime declined 0.1 hour to 3.1 hours.
The labor force participation rate dipped to 62.1% from 62.2% in October.
The employment-population ratio slipped to 59.9% from 60.0% in October.

[uranium-pinto-beans]

S&P 500 futures are down 4 points and are trading slightly below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 18 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 56 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value.

November nonfarm payrolls rose by 263,000 (Briefing.com consensus 200,000) following a revised 284,000 increase in October (from 261,000). Nonfarm private payrolls increased by 221,000 (Briefing.com consensus 200,000) following a revised 248,000 increase in October (from 233,000).

Average hourly earnings were up 0.6% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) versus a prior revised 0.5% increase (from 0.4%).

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%. The average workweek fell to 34.4 hours from 34.5 in October.

[uranium-pinto-beans]

S&P 500 futures are in-line with fair value; the Nasdaq 100 futures are 0.1% below fair value; and the DJIA futures are 0.1% below fair value
Key factors driving the futures market:
Wait-and-see stance in front of November Employment Situation Report
Ongoing deliberation as to whether market has overreacted to Fed Chair Powell's speech
EU governments have reached tentative agreement on price cap of $60/bbl for Russian oil, according to Reuters
China's coronavirus czar says China will take "baby steps" to move away from zero coronavirus policy, according to Washington Post
Kremlin spokesperson says Putin remains open to talks about possible war settlement deal, according to CNBC
Tesla (TSLA) announces first semi truck deliveries
OPEC+ to consider production cuts ahead of December 4 ministerial meeting, according to CNBC
Brokerage research calls of note:
Upgrades: ASBFY
Downgrades: APPH, ASAN, BX, DASH
WTI crude futures +0.6% to $81.72/bbl; nat gas futures flat at $6.74/mmbtu; copper futures -0.4% to $3.80/lb.
2-yr note yield -3 bps to 4.20% and 10-yr note yield -1 bp to 3.52%
The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.2% to 104.52
Today's economic data: November Employment Situation Report at 8:30 a.m. ET

[uranium-pinto-beans]

Marvell (MRVL 43.11, -2.29, -5.0%): misses by $0.02, misses on revs; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus
Ambarella (AMBA 72.15, -1.78, -2.4%): beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 revs below consensus
Ulta Beauty (ULTA 479.99, +.746, +1.5%): beats by $1.21, beats on revs, comps of +14.6%; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus, raises comp guidance
Zscaler (ZS 131.05, -13.45, -9.3%): beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; but disappointed with billings growth guidance
Smartsheet (SMAR 36.40, +3.89, +12.0%): beats by $0.14, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
Veeva Systems (VEEV 184.30, -7.12, -3.7%): beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus
PagerDuty (PD 24.25, +1.73, +7.7%): beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs in-line
Asana (ASAN 15.55, -2.53, -14.0%): beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus
UiPath (PATH 14.54, +1.62, +12.5%): beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs below consensus
Credit Suisse (CS 3.3300, +0.24, +7.8%): Chairman Axel Lehmann says liquidity situation is improving, according to Bloomberg interview

[uranium-pinto-beans]

Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance:

IOT +25.9%, PATH +12.5%, SMAR +11.2%, PD +7.7%, AOUT +4.3%, ULTA +1.6%
Other news:

SPB +15.8% (issues statement on ASSA ABLOY's Proposed Sale of its Emtek and Smart Residential Business in the U.S. and Canada)
CARG +6.9% (reports Nov operating data)
BEAM +4.6% (FDA has lifted the clinical hold on the investigational new drug application for BEAM-201)
RJF +3% (increases dividend; also authorizes new $1.5 bln share repurchase program)
IIIN +3% (CFO resigns)
MRVI +2% (names new CEO to start in July 2023)
PCG +1.9% (CPUC says it no longer needs enhanced oversight over PG&E vegetation mgmt practices)
CI +1.9% (files mixed securities shelf offering)
ACHR +1.6% (completes Maker's first full transition flight)
TCOM +1.4% (enters sustainability-linked loan facility agreement)
LEU +1% (signs contract with US Dept of Energy with base value of $150 mln)
Analyst comments:

AMPX +1.5% (initiated with a Buy at B. Riley Securities)
Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance:

ASAN -14%, ZS -9.3%, MRVL -5.2%, VEEV -3.7%, CHPT -3%, ZUMZ -2.4%, AMBA -2.4%, ARCE -1.5%, GCO -0.8%
Other news:

THTX -19.9% (to pause enrollment for TH1902 study)
YMAB -15.6% (FDA issues CRL for omburtamab FDA says it's unable to approve the BLA in its current form)
PYCR -5.2% (prices 6 mln shares of common stock at $28.60 per share)
OPEN -3.2% (names CFO Carrie Wheeler as CEO)
SHLS -2.6% (prices offering of 26 mln shares of common stock at $22.25 per share)
RCKT -1.8% (confirmed after the close that it completed the previously announced acquisition of Renovacor (RCOR))
FENC -1.6% (stock offering by selling shareholders)
CLVT -1.1% (files mixed securities shelf offering; also stock offering)

[uranium-pinto-beans]

Farfetch selloff on financial outlook overdone, says JPMorgan
JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth says Farfetch's capital markets day "was mixed" as the company laid out a "compelling case" for its leading global luxury industry platform, but its financial outlook through 2025 fell short of some expectations for both gross merchandise volume and EBITDA. The company's three-year outlook through 2025 for $10B of GMV and 10% EBITDA margin is below some expectations, but is "very achievable," Anmuth tells investors in a research note. He believes the 35% selloff yesterday is overdone and creates an attractive entry point. Anmuth has an Overweight rating on Farfetch with a $15 price target

[uranium-pinto-beans]

Chevron CEO Michael Wirth CNBC interview (162.49)
Mr. Wirth said:

Lease sales have been at a much lower rate than historical averages and that is impacting production of oil.
He doesn't know where the "9000 permits" number comes from that White House cites.
The company is still growing production and is confident that oil drilling will still be happening in 2050.
Oil market can move in either direction, its very unpredictable.
Oil companies try to mitigate volatility.
He doesn't know what OPEC+ will decide on Sunday.
Venezuela deal will provide more oil to Gulf Coast.
China demand for oil is clearly lower.

[uranium-pinto-beans]

Johnson Controls added to Analyst Focus List at JPMorgan
JPMorgan analyst Stephen Tusa says he came from a deep dive on Johnson' Services initiative, which represents 50% of its earnings, with a positive view of what "should turn out to be a differentiated defensive growth story that is under-appreciated by investors." Services is a "key aspect as to why we think this time is different for a historically less reliable JCI that can this cycle deliver earnings that are less cyclical and more defensive/visible than the current discount suggests," Tusa tells investors in a research note. Johnson Controls is the analyst's top pick. He added the shares to JPMorgan's Analyst Focus List with an Overweight rating and $70 price target. He says Johnson Controls is a "defensive growth name in a group that looks overvalued."

[uranium-pinto-beans]

Powell and the Markets Talk Past Each Other

[uranium-pinto-beans]

premarket gappers
Gapping up:
IOT +21.6%, PATH +11.1%, SMAR +8%, AOUT +7.9%, CARG +6.9%, SPB +4.3%, PD +3.2%, IIIN +3%, ACHR +2.3%, PCG +1.9%, CI +1.9%, LEU +1%, MMX +0.9%, TCOM +0.7%, VSTO +0.5%
Gapping down:
ASAN -18.2%, YMAB -15.6%, THTX -13.7%, ZS -9%, MRVL -6.8%, PYCR -5.2%, VEEV -4.9%, SHLS -4.2%, CHPT -2.9%, AMBA -2.5%, OPEN -2.2%, RCKT -1.8%, FENC -1.6%, ARCE -1.5%, SWBI -1.1%, CLVT -1.1%, CUTR -0.7%

[uranium-pinto-beans]

Insider Trading: notable purchases -- CEO adds to OABI; notable sales -- President active in LAZ
Buyers:

GOCO 10% owner and Director bought 268,229 shares at $10.61 - $14.50 worth ~$3.5 mln.
IE Executive Chairman bought 422,767 shares at ~$9.85 worth ~$4.2 mln.
LYV Director bought 13,740 shares at $73.28 worth ~$1.0 mln.
OABI President and CEO bought 300,000 shares at $2.9275 - $3.57 worth ~$1.0 mln.
VPG Director bought 20,000 shares at $39.36 - $40.64 worth ~$802K.
Sellers:

EQIX CFO sold 2,500 shares at $699.69 - $700.56 worth ~$1.75 mln.
HBAN Senior Exec. V.P. sold 50,000 shares at ~$15.2496 worth ~$762K.
LAZ President sold 49,000 shares at $36.34 - $36.45 worth ~$1.8 mln.
PGNY CFO sold 14,801 shares at $36.57 to $36.805 worth ~$543K.
TDY Director sold 1,459 shares at $423.79 - $424.21 worth ~$619K.
VRSK Director sold 4,000 shares at $182.88 worth ~$732K.

[uranium-pinto-beans]

Uber CEO Says Won’t Cut Jobs Despite Mounting Tech Layoffs

[uranium-pinto-beans]

gm bobbbbbbbbbbbber

[jimmybob]

Ulta Beauty price target raised to $500 from $480 at Citi
Citi analyst Kelly Crago raised the firm's price target on Ulta Beauty to $500 from $480 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The company delivered a big Q3 beat, Crago tells investors in a research note. In a rocky retail environment, Ulta is one of the few retailers with strong momentum across its business, says the analyst. However, she thinks most of the positives are already appreciated by the market.

[jimmybob]

Ulta Beauty price target raised to $570 from $525 at Piper Sandler
Piper Sandler analyst Korinne Wolfmeyer raised the firm's price target on Ulta Beauty to $570 from $525 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company reported a "solid" Q3 report that beat expectations across the board and raised its fiscal 2022 outlook, Wolfmeyer tells investors in a research note. The "beat and raise story" is ongoing at Ulta, and the company is "proving itself as not only one of the more resilient names in beauty, but a name with strong momentum that's likely to persist," writes the analyst.

[uranium-pinto-beans]

companies reporting after the market close, with earnings consensus, include Marvell (MRVL), consensus 59c... Zscaler (ZS), consensus 26c... Ulta Beauty (ULTA), consensus $4.15... uiPath (PATH), consensus (3c)... Samara (IOT), consensus (6c)... ChargePoint (CHPT), consensus (19c)... Smartsheet (SMAR), consensus (15c)... Asana (ASAN), consensus (32c)... Ambarella (AMBA), consensus 20c.

[uranium-pinto-beans]

The major market indices are generally lower today, giving up some gains after yesterday's huge rally following comments from Fed Chairman Powell on rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 340 points (-0.98%) to 34,250, while the Nasdaq Composite is down 38 (-0.33%) to 11,430, and the S&P 500 is down 18 (-0.45%) to 4,062. Action comes on higher than average volume (NYSE 323 mln vs. avg. of 321 mln; NASDAQ 2,602 mln vs. avg. of 2,246 mln), with advancers outpacing decliners (NYSE 1,846/1,181, NASDAQ 2,418/1,898), with mixed advancing/declining volume (NYSE 145/177 mln, NASDAQ 1,422/1,187 mln), and new 52-week highs outpacing new 52-week lows (NYSE 89/17, NASDAQ 95/70).

Relative Strength:

Junior Gold Mine-GDXJ +3.4%, Gold Miners-GDX +2.98%, Global X Silver Miners-SIL +2.37%, Ireland-EIRL +2.37%, Belgium-EWK +2.06%, Japanese Yen-FXY +1.75%, Silver-SLV +1.74%, Gold-GLD +1.69%, British Pound Ster-FXB +1.68%, U.S. Oil-USO +1.67%

Relative Weakness:

South Africa-EZA -5.2%, Vietnam-VNM -2.83%, U.S. Nat Gas-UNG -2.36%, Solar-TAN -2.23%, WilderHill Clean Energy-PBW -2.2%, Uranium-URA -2.12%, Rare Earth Metals-REMX -1.74%, S&P Retail-XRT -1.44%, Brazil-EWZ -1.35%, Provident Financial Services-PFS -1.29%

[uranium-pinto-beans]

Five Below +15%: Quick Color; gets a major high-five from investors after OctQ not nearly as bad as feared (185.01 +24.15)
Five Below (FIVE) is getting a major high-five from investors after reporting a surprisingly strong Q3 (Oct) report with impressive guidance for the all-important Q4 (Jan) holiday season. We were bracing for a rough quarter after FIVE had guided sharply below consensus for Q3 when it reported Q2 results in late August. However, it had a better-than-expected Q3 and is off to a good start in Q4.
EPS fell 33% yr/yr to $0.29, but that was well above prior guidance of $0.08-0.19. Revenue grew 6.2% yr/yr to $645 mln, which also nicely above prior guidance of $600-619 mln. Last quarter, FIVE made it sound like Q3 was going to be horrible. However, increased marketing spend, especially on the digital side, helped quite a bit. FIVE focused its spend more on the second half of the quarter, which should help the holiday selling season as well.
Also, FIVE had some product winners, especially in novelty candy, including slime lickers. Games and toys were also strong with its squishmallow products remaining popular. FIVE also benefitted from a strong Halloween, which bounced back after COVID restrictions in recent years. All of this translated into same store comps of -2.7% in OctQ, well ahead of prior guidance of -9% to -7% and a nice bounce back after missing on comps in JulQ.
Looking ahead to the holidays, FIVE guided to solid Q4 comps of -1% to +1%. The holidays got off to a good start with a strong Black Friday weekend. Also, FIVE is much better stocked with merchandise this year after dealing with out-of-stocks on some items last holiday season. FIVE also has improved the quality of its holiday offering from toys to pet beds to holiday decor to Bluetooth speakers. The goal is to have something for everyone at a value price, which is good with inflation remaining high.
Overall, we think investors are breathing a sigh of relief. FIVE had prepped investors for a pretty awful Q3, but it was not nearly as bad as feared and FIVE looks well positioned for the holidays.

[uranium-pinto-beans]

ISM report drives lull in rebound action
The stock market had quite the day on Wednesday following the speech from Fed Chair Powell, staging a huge rally on a sense of relief that the Fed Chair did not sound as hawkish with his policy commentary as many had feared he would sound. The stock market, though, is not having the same kind of day today.

The stock market is a bit weaker, contending with the notion that it might have overreacted yesterday and that the growth environment is going to be challenging given the past rate hikes and the rate hikes that are yet to come. A 49.0% reading for the November ISM Manufacturing Index, which is the first sub-50% reading (the dividing line between expansion and contraction) since May 2020, has reined in some of the rebound enthusiasm.

The 2-yr note yield is down eight basis points to 4.30% and the 10-yr note yield is down 12 basis points to 3.58%.

Stocks pushed higher out of the gate, supported by some pleasing personal income and spending data for October and a welcome moderation in the PCE and core-PCE Price Indexes, yet that move was stymied by the ISM release at 10:00 a.m. ET and some resistance for the S&P 500 at the 4,100 level.

The pullback following the ISM release took the S&P 500 back to 4,050, which was right on top of key support at the 200-day moving average (4,048). That line of support held, but it will be a key area to watch in coming hours/days. Market bulls will want to see it hold up and preferably with the support of heavy volume.

There aren't any sectors that are particularly strong. Energy (+0.2%) and communication services (+0.3%) are the biggest gainers. Most other sectors have fallen prone to some consolidation activity. The biggest loser thus far is the financials sector (-0.9%).

An ugly showing from Salesforce (CRM 144.59, -15.66, -9.8%) following its earnings report, and news that Bret Taylor will step down as co-CEO at the end of January, is the principal reason why the Dow Jones Industrial Average is underperforming.

Otherwise, there has been a general lull in the rebound action. The Russell 3000 Value Index and the Russell 3000 Growth Index are both down 0.2%.

The Russell 2000 is down 0.1%; the Nasdaq Composite is down 0.2%; the S&P 500 is down 0.4%; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 1.0%.