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House bill passes...
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/10/09/house-oks-lifting-40-year-old-us-ban-on-crude-oil-exports/
Jon the debate.... Obama has said he will veto the bill to lift crude oil export ban. NTI may be the place to be but I suspect most people don't quite get the reasons, and will abandon all refining stocks if the bill becomes law. The signal given is: We have at least until after the elections next Fall to decide what the impact will be on our positions. In general it seems logical that US refiners will give up a bit of margin due to crude cost spreads which should tighten, but if we can't use all the light crude we produce... due to refineries designed for heavy oil, then the real issue is the Keystone XL pipeline which would bring in cheaper heavy crude from Canada to replace some Venezuela/Saudi crude. This political football is now in the air for the next year (plus 3 1/2 weeks).
Wow nice... You should feel blessed.
All in all, I am blessed as well.
Hope you continue to do well.
I am the logistics manager scheduling road base, aggregates and paving mix deliveries - I also schedule all of the heavy equipment moves for our crews -1200 pieces - I have 120CDL drivers and use 100 more contract trucks. I handle DOT compliance and hiring. We have 36 quarries that produce materials for our jobs and outside customers also. I have implemented changes over the last few years resulting in increased efficiency and large gains within the department. First off, they gave me the latitude to make and enforce changes, next they have rewarded my accordingly. Not many big companies anymore that take care of their people like this one does. People that retire from here get a huge severance check on the way out.
They bonus out 20% of the net profits across the employees every year- pretty amazing in this day and age of corporate greed. I am in a very high pressure position but I do well in it, some would have a hard time doing what I do. I am blessed to have my job.
What do you do..... Your bosses sound like great people to work for.... 30% raise that is unheard of now days...
Congratulations on your occupational recognition! That is extraordinary, receiving an unexpected high-percentage bonus. Moreover is that you are getting a clear signal from executive level management that you are one of their top guys. To be in this moment at your age which is just a few years from early SS retirement is truly remarkable. I'm proud of you for that!
At 59 I lost most of my sight and was declared blind. Four surgeries later based on my own findings which I'd made known to four different surgeons convinced I'd never again see, my vision has been fully restored.
My work history is a mix of college teaching and private businesses which I'd launched myself. When blind, I had to plow every available penny into the market as it was the only way I could earn. At the time (about fifteen years ago) Texas was in the process of deregulating natural gas. I jumped in headfirst and talk about heavy hitting! I let it ride all the way from $60K to $730K. It took three years.
I do great when I'm aggressive but I experience periods when I pull away. A small ranch takes a lot of doing but I love it all. At 75, I am focusing more and more on investments. Having a wonderful time and making some serious money, too. I'm being very aggressive and it is paying off hugely.
Getting to know a bit about others here brings a message board much closer together. It is definitely that way for me.
Today's swoon in the MLPs is probably a mix of concerns over the crack spread and the public view that oil drops in supply or demand must automatically hurt all things oil-related. This is so blamed stupid, it nearly infuriates me. Silly, as I have a friend who was a stock wholesaler, traveled all over the world selling large blocks of stock to brokers. His line was a great one:
You can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink mutual funds! Hilarious. Ditto here---we can preach all day long about our three great stock MLP picks but not everyone will or can accept the terms of ownership. But those of us here know well that there's great money to be earned.
Lastly, NTI is dropping as I expected when I unloaded so many units over the past few weeks. ALDW dropped ridiculously and I've been loading up. Got CVRR this week also. And now I'm watching NTI. $24.30 is my buy point as I'm convinced we'll do well as it ratchets back up to $25 and beyond. Of course, this is the plan before the expected rise leading into corporate guidance declaring the level of distribution for the quarter.
Good luck, everybody!
We are always hiring -labor to upper management - we have around 400 employees.
Interesting, seeing NTI and ALDW giving back about a half dollar. As mentioned earlier this week, I unloaded 2,300 units of NTI over recent weeks. Prices received were in a range of $24.45 to $25.73 with about half at the lower end. My purpose was tied in largely with a wish to gather some dry powder while derisking; of course there was a nice profit to be taken as well.
Now I'm seeing units down about a half dollar. $24.52 is not the entry point I want.....I think there's time to print $24.00. Between the volatile crack spread moving to the weaker side as well as a likely diminished Q3 distribution due to the unscheduled maintenance now resolved---I'm prepared to sit on my 4,000 units while going more aggressively after ALDW. I've added to CVRR too, but I view Alon as the deal to feel. Lurking in the background of my brain is a cautionary note, not more than a yellow flag, perhaps---but a flag all the same:
Given that NTI's operating just a single refinery and there's already been a surprise shut-down sure to affect this quarter's payout, there is no way to predict a reliable distribution, should there be another "unscheduled" shut-down. Thus, another case for ALDW and CVRR.
There's time to watch developments but at under $25, ALDW is sure looking like a ripe plum. Comparing this with NTI on a day-to-day price basis only, ALDW wins hands down. The latter typically averages significantly higher. With the likelihood of ALDW's distribution being at or over a dollar, I view NTI as coming up a bit short this time around. Still, it's my largest position and will remain so for I strongly believe in it and its merits have yet to fail me.
I'd love to hear other perspectives here.
High Yields and Tax advantages MLPs old article but still relevant
MLPs have rallied for the same reasons that first induced us to launch this service. Number one is generous yields backed by strong businesses that are systematically increased over time. Number two is the fact that those yields are tax advantaged at a time when the risk of higher taxes is at its greatest in decades.
— Roger Conrad, MLP Profits
MLPs offer investors a simple value proposition: double-digit, tax-advantaged yields and strong recession-resistant growth potential. Although the group has seen a nice run-up in recent months, most MLPs continue to trade at significant discounts to historical norms in terms of yields relative to other income producing groups such as high-yield bonds and real estate investment trusts (REIT).
— Elliott Gue, MLP Profits
June 16th Audio Conference
Where I work – KCI Investing – word travels fast when a special event for investors is scheduled. So, when I heard that utility and dividend expert Roger Conrad and energy expert Elliott Gue were planning – on June 16th – to reveal their four favorite high-yield and (virtually) no-tax energy master limited partnerships (MLPs) in a one-hour audio conference call, I got really excited. Why? — because I know Roger and Elliott personally and they are two of the smartest investors on the planet. Their MLP Profits investment service may only be a little more than a year old, but so far its recommendations are outperforming the S&P 500 by a very wide margin. An annual subscription to the service costs hundreds of dollars, but this audio conference costs only a fraction of that and provides participants with Roger and Elliott’s top four recommendations. It’s like getting the best part of MLP Profits at a huge discount.
I’m getting ahead of myself. What is an MLP and why is it such a great investment choice?
Tax Benefits of MLPs
A MLP is a pass-through entity for tax purposes, meaning that it does not pay any tax at the corporate level. All distributable cash flow is passed through to the limited partners. This means that the MLP does not suffer from the “double taxation” regular corporations must pay (i.e., corporate tax at the corporation level and income tax at the shareholder level). Cash flow from a MLP is taxed only once at the limited partner level. This means that there is more cash flow available for partners of a MLP than there is for shareholders of a corporation. The result is that MLPs can provide limited partners with more cash.
But the benefits of MLPs don’t stop at a higher yield. The yield of MLPs is also tax-deferred. Due to high depreciation and amortization charges, which are non-cash charges against income, up to 90% of the cash distribution made by a typical MLP to its limited partners is considered a return of capital. A return of capital is not taxable. Consequently, the portion of the cash paid out by the MLP that is a return of capital is deducted from the cost basis of an investor’s partnership units (they aren’t called shares) and tax is only due if the investor sells the shares, which could be never. Exception: if the cost basis of a unit falls to zero, all cash distributions afterwards are taxed as capital gains.
The 10% of the MLP distribution that is net income is taxed at ordinary income tax rates and is not eligible for reduced dividend tax rate treatment (c’mon, MLPs can’t have everything!). Look at the following illustration, which assumes a $50 share/unit price, a 100% net income payout ratio, 90% return of capital for MLPs, 15% tax rate on corporate dividends, and 35% ordinary income tax rate:
Benefits of No Double-Taxation and Tax-Deferral
Corporation
MLP
Taxable Income
$5.00
$5.00
Corporate Tax (35%)
$1.75
(35%*$5.00)
$0
(0%*$5.00)
Entity Net Income
$3.25
$5.00
Income Tax (15% dividend or 35% ordinary)
$0.49
(15%*$3.25)
$0.18
(35%*10%*$5.00)
Net Income to Share/Unit Holder
$2.76
$4.82
After-Tax Yield
5.5%
($2.76/$50)
9.6%
($4.82/$50)
The tax advantage of the MLP structure will be even greater if Congress does not extend the reduced 15% tax rate for corporate dividends.
History of MLPs
The first MLP was established in 1981. The obvious tax benefits from the structure caused many corporations to convert to MLPs in the next few years. The U.S. Congress didn’t like the lost tax revenue, so in 1987 it restricted the types of businesses that could become MLPs to those that generate 90% or more of their income from natural resources (including oil and natural gas), real estate, and commodities. The Congress felt that it was in the public interest to promote the growth of these special business types through tax breaks. Why not take advantage of these government-sponsored tax breaks by investing in MLPs? The U.S. government is literally throwing money at investors who do!
Tax Deferral Comes with Tax Complexity
The downside of the tax savings is that unit holders, as limited partners, receive Form K-1 from the IRS instead of the usual Form 1099 for dividends received by shareholders. Form K-1 is more complex to report on your tax return than Form 1099 and may require the filing of state income tax returns in each state that the MLP operates. But any tax accountant worth his salt knows how to report these K-1s in his sleep, so this “problem” only applies to the do-it-yourself tax preparer.
Removing Tax Complexity Could Raise Your Taxes
You can avoid this complexity by purchasing MLPs through an ETN — like JPMorgan MLP Index (NYSE: AMJ), UBS E-TRACS Alerian MLP Infrastructure (NYSE: MLPI), or Credit Suisse Cushing 30 MLP Index (NYSE: MLPN) – or through a closed-end fund – like Kayne Anderson MLP Investment Company (NYSE: KYN) or MLP & Strategic Equity Income Fund (NYSE: MTP). ETNs and closed-end funds report MLP cash distributions on Form 1099 and require the filing of only one state tax return.
There are some negatives to these fund alternatives, however. With regard to ETNs, in a taxable account you lose the tax-deferral advantage of MLPs (all cash distributions from ETNs are taxable as ordinary income), but this can be mitigated by placing MLP ETNs in a tax-deferred retirement account (e.g., IRA or 401k). The rule of thumb is to place individual MLPs in a taxable account and MLP ETNs in an IRA or 401k retirement account. With regard to closed-end MLP funds, the tax characteristic (i.e., return of capital, dividend, or ordinary income) of cash distributions is less certain, so you need to check with each closed-end fund before deciding which type of account to place it in.
Second, ETNs do not actually hold individual MLPs, but simply promise you a return based on such MLPs. Consequently, an ETN investor is subject to the credit risk of the issuer. Third, closed-end funds can trade at significant premiums to the net asset values of the MLPs they own, resulting in you purchasing $1.00 worth of MLPs for $1.15 or more, which is a bad bet to make. Lastly, buying MLP funds (ETNs or closed-end) lowers your cash yield by the amount of fund management fees and forces you to own many MLPs that may be mediocre.
Not all MLPs are Created Equal
Currently, there are more than 100 MLPs trading in the U.S. with the vast majority of them (78% by number) focused on energy (88% by market cap). Roger and Elliott at MLP Profits rate every single MLP that exists and have sell ratings on almost a third of them. For example, Roger and Elliott have a sell rating on K-Sea Transportation Partners (NYSE: KSP), a tank barge and tugboat company operating in coastal US waters.
To merit a buy rating from Roger and Elliott, a MLP must get passing grades from a number of criteria:
When we research a particular MLP, we look at distribution track record, management’s strategy and effectiveness, age of assets, percentage of capital spending devoted to growth as opposed to maintenance and the location of the assets themselves. The result is a comprehensive assessment of potential risk and reward.
To sum up, despite the significant tax advantages enjoyed by MLPs, not all MLPs are worthy of your hard-earned investment dollars. Managing your own portfolio of individual MLPs with the guidance of MLP Profits allows you to concentrate only on the very best MLPs and maximize your potential gains.
MLP Outperformance Has Been Extraordinary
The performance of MLPs in both the long-term and the short-term has been amazingly good, outperforming the S&P 500 over virtually any time frame you can find. Look at the performance of MLPs over the past ten years:
Source:
jugs you are the heavy hitter on this board -lol I agree it is perplexing why there is not more public interest in these MLPs. I read articles about how popular they are all the time but the volumes don't really indicate that.The returns are the best game in town imo. I do know some retired guys that will not put their money in anything but ultra conservative low yield bonds, I am not there yet at 57. I love my job, I work for a 77 year old family owned company that treats me like a King.Just this week I received an unheard of (at my range) 30% raise and I have yet to even process it in my mind. It has been very humbling to know that the owners see that kind of value in me.So I have no plans of retiring anytime soon but I am very interested in building more capital, through investments, for the future.I have no immediate need for my new found fortune so question is where do I want to invest it and MLPs are the safest place with a huge yield imo.
I have a 401k that is matching 6% and I have a IRA with moderate investments. I like to play my online accounts because its fun and it has been profitable over the years. Not to say I did not get scalped a few times along the way because I took an 82k hit in 2011 but it was all profits from trades. Still it was money earned and then lost, it stung for a while.
Seems like Unit 2 is back online (as of Oct2).
"The unit was safely restarted and returned to service on October 2, 2015." released on 10/7/2015 -
Took NTI's IR 5 days to let us not-living-in-Saint Paul Park investors know. Guess they don't know what IR stands for.
That news in that announcement sort of fits with my post from late on the 10/1.
"Last trade 100k shares(4:02)+$.04 to $23.60.
My guess, unit 2 is, or almost is, up and running."
By the way, normally, NTI's close of day block trade is around 6k shares - that was not clearing of the books.
From the Yahoo nti board (rt-invest) -
"The unplanned maintenance was finished on October 2nd, and you took five days to report it?
Why, to give insiders plenty of time to buy shares before informing the public?
Thanks also for giving zero information on what caused the maintenance and how it expensive it was to carry out. YOU ARE CORRUPT, WORTHLESS, or BOTH!"
By the way - I wouldn't buy and hold RIG right now. Real good offshore info on the IV SDRL board.
Catdaddy and Pete are the official moderators on this board. I love both these guys for their continued interest in board visitors and constant readiness to be of service. This is a perfect example of how a great board can be run as these guys bring great perspective.
I hope you'll see fit to voice your concerns and thoughts more frequently. These MLPs are terribly lacking in terms of public support. It's a huge shame as a retired person can make a very nice living, bringing in those 15-20% yielders. I've been in stocks such as these for more than twenty years, beginning with Canadian royalty trusts, Those went away with the mammoth but their spirit continues right here in the good ol' USA in the form of MLPs.
Meanwhile, let's keep the yakking up as it might motivate others to think about participating in these stocks.
Thanks to Jugs and Pete for the input on Rig...I am underwater on the stock but bought it some months back for the future gains and hopefully the return of larger dividends...Sure glad I followed your leads on NTI, CVRR and ALDW...Thanks again and good luck to us all!!!
Not I, on the subject of RIG. I played it about a dozen years ago but not recently. And I'm not one to get too close to stocks that showing hugely controversial personality unless I've figured something out on my own and move to get the jump on everyone else. And I can tell you this---I just looked up the short side and find it is incredibly shorted to the tune of more than 32%!!! I don't think I've ever seen anything like that. I won't get near it.
I'm watching NTI right now and will be a buyer at $24. CVRR @ $19.50. ALDW @ $24.50.
These are approximate numbers. Also, I'll be buying in bundles of no more than 200 units unless the dip is well below my designated price points. Even then, I'll be buying carefully as any number of things can rock the market in general and the oil sector specifically. In other words, I don't want to find my enthusiasm emptying my wallet. Better to contain emotions, right?
No RIG, but I took a beating last year on SDRL... used a loss to offset another gain for tax but I would rather have paid on a gain, lol. RIG kiss of death was big dividend cut... 80% .75 down to .15 quarterly. It should rebound and is rated a buy but I suspect it will take a few quarters of increasing numbers and dividend return to at least .50.
With NTI we all know there won't be a consistent payout, but the yield has been spectacular. Seems these refining MLPS are rewriting the MLP story going forward... Many of the traditional energy MLPs are fighting negative opinion and debt management issues. GLTA!
Thanks once again to Pete, Jugs and Catdaddy for keeping us informed and offering what I think are good opinions on NTI, ALDW, and CVRR...I'm curious does anyone here have RIG in their portfolio?...Thanks again!!!
I certainly hope you're right about seeing $23's---I just hope it's on this side of November so I can sneak back in to grab a couple of thousand units more.
However, CVRR is beckoning and I'm adding. I'm seeing a likely 20%+ yield, awfully hard to beat. And better visibility at the moment, given that there've been no unscheduled mishaps. (Who would ever schedule a mishap, anyway? lol)
This much fun should be illegal.
Thanks for your summation---always comforting.
for what it is worth... (nothing, lol), I am confident that we will see both 26s and 23s on our way to news in early November... Then 22s or 27s based on that news. Other factors as we have seen can hasten those levels as well, at least on the down side. Hedge funds and other large block and option traders keep it from soaring too high, or to where I believe it belongs.
This one has long been a traders dream! up down up down up. Easy money for the best flippers and day traders with a winning plan!
In my case it is also a solid place to invest for the long haul safely, as we will not change to any other option for powering transportation very quickly.
I still think there is room for oil to dip again when demand can not keep pace with world supply and oil manipulation fails, or politics take over. ie Iran suddenly enters with huge numbers. Seasonal demand has a role to play too. This all makes it hard for anyone to know where oil is going.
Falling crude will also affect the share price regardless of logic, and as the company has explained, makes inventory cost adjustment necessary, which will affect the profit and payout.. GLTA!
Yesterday I may have been foolish...second-thinking got to me and I sold 2,300 units of NTI. The idea was to lessen risk as I'd held 6,000 units in all. I also wanted to be ready to move on ALDW and CVRR in the event of a dip.
Today it's looking like I was too early on the sell side. On the other hand I've got plenty of dry powder and one of our three MLPs is going to swoon over the next few weeks, I'm certain. Meanwhile I reeled in a few grand in profits so I'm locked and loaded.
I added 200 CVRR today and 100 ALDW last week on the cheap, so I'm not going to starve. lol
I'd like to hear your thoughts and those of our brothers on this board regarding your expectations.
How much less payout for Q3?... plenty of widely speculative opinions, based on downtime last month and inventory cost adjustment due to falling crude price during the quarter. They carry about 2 million barrels in storage.
Still there is plenty of upside potential in this one, imo.
Last trade 100k shares(4:02)+$.04 to $23.60.
My guess, unit 2 is, or almost is, up and running.
Back in Canada again.
I also had to get a new computer as the logic board failed and battery would not charge. Bought a new battery but it still did not charge. I have an external back up drive...
Back on topic... I did not see the big drop until after the fact and it rebounded a bunch already today... Same here about stop losses as I believe the MM's can see them and manage to get any shares they need with their advantages. Flippers will make serious quick cash here selling into ex-date. I too believe it will rise from yesterdays low to a plus $4 gain minimum. GLTA!
You've expressed my sentiment as well. When I first learned of the unexpected shutdown, of course I was concerned. But I've seen situations not unlike this one where the shutdown turned out to be not as serious as originally thought.
So yesterday I nearly added but went after ALDW on a fire sale just for the sake of a broader & safer allocation.
I never use stops, got burned too many times on these unusually wide swings in the course of mere hours. What goes up must go down? It works the other way too, nearly 100% of the time. I'll take my chances as I never place critical money into a market of dreams and hopes.
And surely Zacks had access to Bzusa's information yet maintains unit holders are probably going to receive close to $1.10. It's slightly less than $1.19 and a lot less than amounts earlier expected by some analysts. But when I times it by 6,000, I get a terrific number. And I could live with 50 cents, too---it's still a $3K payoff come next distribution.
I guess it comes down to where each of us is comfortable, given the obvious risks associated with market activity.
Cheers, all.
And where's Pete? C'mon, boy---we want your input!
My recent trade position (23.99) sold for a loss on a stop loss at 22.50 but I am holding fast on the long one. This too shall pass -I was so busy the last few days I did not even see this till last night. That was my first loss on a trade with NTI this year so I am not going to cry. Make a plan and stick to it.
"Unplanned maintenance at the refinery’s 58,000-b/sd No. 2 crude unit was due to begin as of Sept. 17, Northern Tier said."
http://www.ogj.com/articles/2015/09/northern-tier-shutters-unit-for-unplanned-maintenance-at-minnesota-refinery.html
This is interesting as I think it unlikely it wouldn't have entered into the equation for Zacks{
From a Zacks release of today:
Upcoming Releases
Northern Tier NTI is slated to report third quarter earnings on Nov 3, 2015. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is $ 1.07.
I said recently I'd be delighted with anything near a dollar. I'll be tickled, frankly.
Where did that 58,000 number come from? This is the first I'm seeing it.
Could it be that there is a problem at the apparently shut-down refinery unit.
58k bbls/day is a serious loss with no explanation and no date for start up.
Until unit 2 starts back up, NTI's pps will just go down.
And management just stays mute - ech!!!!!
I dumped 1/2 my position (which I had just bought) when they announced the "unplanned maintenance."
I could say the wind has been scooped up out of my sails but the truth is that my sails have been stolen. lol
Today is horrible but need I remind one and all that this is an aberration due, in large measure, to issues stemming from China and having almost nothing to do with us?
While I've got some dry powder, right now my focus is on minimizing losses likely to last for awhile. I'm not even thinking about copping some great deals, I'll leave that for others. I know all too well that today's great buys may be tomorrow's headlining sucker bets.
I don't need to beat the market. I just want to position myself to make a living by staying on top of news meaningful to my portfolio holdings. No way do I believe that Friday of this week we'll be seeing NTI at under $23. Not to say it can't happen, only that I've seen these routs many times before. They haven't anything at all to do with the value of gasoline, convenience store goodies, crack spreads or anything else the media can force onto us.
In short, this is a China issue more than anything else.
Northern Tier Energy will report its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2015, on Tuesday, November 3, 2015
TEMPE, Ariz., Sept. 24, 2015 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Northern Tier Energy LP (NYSE:NTI) ("Northern Tier") will report its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2015, on Tuesday, November 3, 2015, before the open of trading on the New York Stock Exchange. Northern Tier will also host a conference call to discuss these results on Tuesday, November 3, 2015, at 11:30 a.m. EST.
Read the attached SA article AND the comments section. I found it interesting and the author admits his conservative range for Q3 payout... GLTA!
link: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3527236-northern-tier-a-steady-performer-in-the-energy-sector?auth_param=i4ud:1b03b2m:63b86a1a3a05c760010973ad12e34010&uprof=46
More evidence is mounting in support of my alleging that there's a rolling churn in action involving our three MLP's. ALDW is lowed while NTI and CVRR are higher. Where's the news to explain this?
For me, the question is now this:
How convincing will this upticking be in the case of NTI? We know that stocks dropping in value tend to find their bottom with successive bounces on the low end...much as a rubber ball will skitter to a halt after bouncing in successively smaller distance ranges. It is therefore likely NTI will make it to $25 in rather short order only to have its rug pulled out in one fell swoop---or one swell poop.
Actually she's the one who has to have MY heart. Life for a man is really tough---especially when your stage name is "Jugs." That means I have to supply everything---except heart. Just don't call me "Boob!" lol
Glad to see you jumped out on the same limb for an unbeatable price.
NTI is crazy cheap and---for sure, it can only go higher. Still, in a piece I posted at the ALDW board, I'm seeing a lot of churn going on and it's a rolling churn. ALDW rose dramatically for awhile, CVRR fit in the same style a bit every so often and now it's NTI, the prize of the three in my opinion---playing roll over and die. I could believe ALDW will drop lower than today's close.
It's crazy but we've got to roll with the punches or find ourselves left out. There is no way I can see losing on this $23.99 trade so I salute you for having the guts to do the Tammy Wynette thing and "Stand By Your Wo-Man."
Great song, great songstress, great stock---NTI.
By the way, awhile back I held a lot more than 6,000u of NTI. At first I couldn't believe I accepted so much risk. But it paid off fantastically and I learned to trust my instincts more than I might have in times past. I figure that if a trade of a hundred or two hundred shares looks good, why be scared with more money on the line? So I go for deeper positions and am faring far better. I don't hold as many positions but the ones picked get the job done despite the occasional clunker.
NTI is, indeed, a beautiful lady.
As Pete and I shared over the weekend, a dollar payout will be just fine. I'm not trying to prove anything, just pay my way without touching savings while building reserves for that next five acres or a bunch of sheep. When your hobby is fun, exciting, profitable and adds financial stability year after year, who will complain?
I just filled some 23.99s for a trade -I was too busy last week when I saw "her" coming down - so easy a caveman could do it - we all know from here there will be gains from a dollar to muti-dollar's just a matter of time.
I love this stock but alas you must have her heart with that hefty position of yours jugs -lol
Great intel Cat. Backs up my thinking posted a couple days ago. Refineries here are old design, for what at that time was the world standard, heavy crude. Change is a certainty... Shale oil has a bigger part to play on the world stage. It won't fade away! Sorry OPEC. Saudi Arabia will be fine... They still have the lowest cost supply so quit with the greed!
Public wants Keystone XL. It will help the US and Canadian economies, so get out of the way. Lets import what our refineries need from our friends to the North and export what they can't handle while they follow NTI and improve their design. Exporting crude won't affect NTI very much. We will be fine regardless. Other US refineries will need to change when spreads tighten. Heck it may facilitate bringing them into the 21st century... GLTA!
A buck is great for me and no need to worry about oil exportation near term it will tale 20 months to cut the red tape if/when the government lifts the ban. How about we STOP importing any oil from Saudi and ramp up our drilling again till we are self sufficient???
Saudi is not our friend never has been.
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTIMUSSA2&f=M
What we get out of exporting is more production more jobs
But just look at Keystone Pipe line - good for everyone -President won't let it happen and congress is limp.
some good intel here
http://www.oilandexports.com/#/?section=why-export-crude-oil
Oh me, oh my! I couldn't help myself...with 58 seconds to go in the trading day I saw NTI plunged to a price point I couldn't resist. I think I'm going to have to tell my lovely wife there's a new gal in town and she's far easier to feed. She eats money...no chicken, no beef or pork ribs---not even an occasional dessert! Nope, she eats, but only money.
So I sold out on a wonderful marriage, all for the pleasure of adding another hundred units of NTI at $23.929. Mind you, I didn't need the new supply. As of this moment I'm 29 units shy of 6,000u. Yeah, I should have picked up the other 29, I know, but who's thinking when in a lustful moment? lol
This is so stupid, I almost can't believe I fell prey yet again. But then again maybe prey is what I need to be doing here---praying, that is.
After weighing pros and cons I decided for myself that NTI has been such a fine winner for me since the IPO, I'm prepared to survive, come what may. If the unscheduled repairs cost more than a little, we'll survive. If the hit on slightly diminished throughput-to-it's impact on Q3's distribution is 10 cents/u or even 25 cents---you know what? Last month we picked up $1.19. We were expecting at least $1.25 and some saw it all the way up to $2 for Q3 before the announcement of unscheduled maintenance! Well, I'm more conservative, so I'll be happy with a dollar! At $23.93, it works out to an actual return of 16.7% indicating a yield of at least 17%. That'll keep everybody happy.
I hope others here took advantage of things late in the day. I sensed a difficult market yesterday afternoon and reduced an African oil holding just to have a few grand in cash. Late in the morning I again thinned a couple of holdings, put some cash into the bank account and kept a few thou in reserve should there be a Monday morning blah aka overhang.
Once again, NTI can be a fun stock to hold, to own or trade. I do both. It can be highly profitable for those willing to sit attentively as forces collect and opportunities arise. Poor catdaddy is, unfortunately, among the working stiffs so he's excused. lol But he does well, I'm certain...too sharp not to.
I've got about 6,000 reasons to stand tall with NTI.
Unplanned yes but how big of a problem? They called it maintenance and if it were a costly repair they would have given more specific details, imo. We can only speculate. However there was some information in the last CC that will likely be of larger import :
5-10% drop in production but the payout should suffer more depending on how much it costs to fix the unplanned problem.
oops - posted before reading the other posts - sorry
NTI Unplanned Maintenance
TEMPE, Ariz., Sept. 17, 2015 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Northern Tier Energy LP (NYSE:NTI) ("Northern Tier") today announced that the St. Paul Park refinery will be taking the No. 2 Crude Unit down for unplanned maintenance. As a result of this unplanned maintenance, Northern Tier expects crude oil throughput for the third quarter 2015 will average between 86,000 and 90,000 barrels per day.
We're on the same page.
Thanks, Pete
Len
We can guess since 86-90 is less than 10% below normal and should mean no more than a 10 cent drop in payout. Market reaction? ...Yes the news could create a buying opportunity, lol. Swings plenty WITHOUT any news... GLTA!
Thanks for your concise remarks, Pete. Always a pleasure to see your remarks.
Yesterday's announcement re. unplanned maintenance--- as I recall NTI's 2,000 throughput has been around 90,000 bpd, plus or minus 2,000. Is this correct? If so, what percentage of hurt will this mean for us longs? I'm not seeing anything particularly disturbing.
The market will overreact, it's to be expected. At the same time, I'll be watching ALDW and, to a lesser degree, CVRR.
Reits are the only other investments I also employ. I don't like most C corp companies for the reason I gave in my last post. And you will be able to buy the other half back at less then you sold for probably before it rises into the next payday.
The majority of US refineries are designed more toward using heavy imported oil. On the surface one would argue that it makes no sense to export when we are importing so much more but since ours is light shale we will still have to bring in a lot until more refineries are built or redesigned for light crude.
NTI was already redesigned and upgraded to handle more Bakken light crude and can also handle heavy Canadian (or Saudi/Venezuela) oil.
You mention NTI advantages and are correct, imo. I came to the same conclusions in my original DD. I think we will be in good shape regardless.
Below I list a few comments from a 9/15/2015 SA article... differing opinions of the consequences of lifting the ban. I can see some merit in both sides of the argument. That said the Brent/WTI/Bakken spreads would shrink. Still the crude in the Bakken will remain land-locked and favoring NTI geographically, and logistically. (Trucking and co-owning pipeline) .
I like cheap gas prices for the positive effect on our economy but the eventual return of higher crude will mean more oil from the Bakken as the rig count goes back up.
comments:
1. Exports means World Oil prices going even lower.
2. How could oil exports "raise" gas prices? That does not appear to have intrinsic common sense unless I am missing something. We need to compete on the global market place. Maybe we should also consider putting a tax on imported oil to make things fair against the Saudi oil cost controlled by their government as well.
3. If the export ban is lifted, the crack spread decreases and US refineries will make less $. Therefore gas prices will be under pressure and will rise.
4. Oil and politics cannot be separated. Not now, probably not ever.
5. Gasoline prices in the US are primarily based off Brent [international] pricing, not WTI [America's crude oil benchmark], so increasing the supply of international crude via American oil exports would put downward pressure on Brent, which would put downward pressure on gasoline prices. The EIA sees American oil exports basically having no effect on American petroleum products prices, with the EIA calling for prices to stay the same or fall marginally.
Here is the report: http://1.usa.gov/1QfAvTs
I don't understand the rather strong reaction to the possibility of US oil exportation on the board. If NTI is the only refiner you hold, then US oil exports are no big deal.
IMHO - Their refinery's location in the most insulated part of the US with a big, locked-in internal market and always relatively cheaper input really mutes the effect of big changes in the international oil market.
I sold 1/2 my NTI units 2 days ago - drat.
and put the $$ into mreits - yea!
Maybe the attack on US refineries won't succeed in this congress but it is inevitable. Spreads will diminish.
Refineries are bad investments? LOL Maybe if you take them all as the same... Eco-nazis are ignorant and idealism aside, they are hypocrites, so I am not surprised there is anti refinery sentiment. They also drive fuel guzzling cars on asphalt roads instead of pothole nature paths. It is about choices and options.... One commentor rides a bike. (Probably said that for effect, plus owns an SUV).
On our side it is not hard to like a 4-6 grand payday when it may come every quarter. And while we would love to be driving Hydrogen cars from solar powered electrolysis it could be a long wait and might involve our grandchildren. Meanwhile refining MLPs are in the sweet spot.
I didn't watch the debate last night either but I liked what Trump said last Sunday on Face the Nation about C corp CEO's putting their friends on their boards who would approve the ridiculous salaries and bonuses they give themselves. Thats why I keep saying MLP's are good... by law they can't get away with very much of that kind of behavior.
Donny won't be the next president but he does entertain us with his criticisms. Gets a rise out of most everyone.
Everything you've said thus far is completely rational, we are in agreement. Thank you for your input.
With nearly 6,000 units of NTI, I know I've got to reduce my positions or entertain too much risk---for me. I've built things up anticipating a great payout or two, on the way. But history has taught me that good gains are often made on the fly---tweaking as we move along. I don't need to sport the lowest cost basis or get in at the bottom price of the day or year. The important thing is to demonstrate an on-going ability to generate profits by rechurning original seed capital.
My only lament is that I feel lousy when I thin positions. NTI has been an incredibly exciting and profitable pick for us regular longs. There's room to trade while retaining core shares; income needs not be compromised. Yet there are times when it is indeed appropriate to add to or reduce positions due to market gyrations.
Interesting item at Seeking Alpha today: some readers view actions a year or more ahead as making a long term hold unacceptable. I find that surprising, had thought SA readers are more sophisticated than that would imply. It began with one's comment but immediately followed by a number, all in agreement!
It had me wanting to blurt out:
"Hey, guys---are we investors or "set it and forget it" folks incapable of daily foraging? There are many opportunities out there but when we fall asleep or simply ignore taking care of our interests, of course we'll be hurt." The subject began with a focus on Valero but quickly spread to refiners in general. There is something of a consensus that would have everyone believing that refiners represent one of the worst possible investment areas.
There's a lot of misinformation out there and, frankly, I didn't feel like getting tangled in their webs of ignorance. Still, I'm a bit surprised that so many outspoken readers are looking for the easy way out instead of taking responsibility for their investment income stability.
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Northern Tier Energy is an independent downstream energy company with refining, retail, and pipeline operations that serve the PADD II region of the United States.
Refining BusinessNorthern Tier’s refining business primarily consists of an 89,500 barrels per calendar day (96,500 barrels per stream day) refinery located in St. Paul Park, Minnesota.. The refinery’s complexity allows it to process a variety of light, heavy, sweet and sour crudes into higher value refined products.
The St. Paul Park Refinery is one of only two refineries in Minnesota and one of four refineries in the Upper Great Plains area within the PADD II region. The PADD II region covers Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Wisconsin. The refinery’s strategic location allows it direct access, primarily via the Minnesota Pipeline, to what the Company believes are abundant supplies of advantageously priced crude oils. Many of these crude oils have historically priced at a discount to NYMEX WTI.
The Company will seek to benefit from access to growing crude oil supplies. As of [June 2013], the Canadian Association of Petrochemical Producers estimated that total Canadian crude oil production is expected to grow to 6.7 million bpd by 2030 from 2012 production of 3.2 million bpd . Crude oil production from the Bakken Shale in North Dakota has also increased significantly, from approximately 98,000 bpd in 2005 to approximately 934,000 bpd as of January 2014, and is expected to continue to grow due to improvements in unconventional resource production techniques. [April 2014].
The refinery’s location allows it to distribute its refined products throughout the Midwestern United States. The refinery produces a broad slate of refined products including gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and asphalt, which are then marketed to resellers and consumers primarily in the PADD II region.
Northern Tier also owns various storage and transportation assets, including a light products terminal, a heavy products terminal, storage tanks, rail loading/unloading facilities and a Mississippi river dock. The refining business also includes a 17% interest in the Minnesota Pipe Line Company, which owns and operates the Minnesota Pipeline, a 455,000 bpd crude oil pipeline system that transports crude oil (primarily from Western Canada and North Dakota) for approximately 300 miles from the Enbridge pipeline hub at Clearbrook, Minnesota to the refinery. The Minnesota Pipeline has historically transported the majority of the crude oil used and processed in the refinery.
Retail BusinessAs of March 31st, 2014, the retail business operated 164 convenience stores under the SuperAmerica brand and also supported 79 franchised convenience stores, which are also operated under the SuperAmerica brand. These convenience stores are located primarily in Minnesota and Wisconsin and sell various grades of gasoline and diesel, tobacco products and immediately consumable items such as non-alcoholic beverages, beer, prepared food and a large variety of snacks and prepackaged items. The refinery supplies substantially all of the gasoline and diesel sold in the company-operated and franchised convenience stores.
Northern Tier Energy also owns and operates SuperMom’s Bakery, which prepares and distributes baked goods and other prepared food items for sale in the company-operated and franchised convenience stores and other third party locations.
A more indepth presentation of NTI:NYRS ~ GS Presentation FINAL.pdf
WEBSITE:http://www.ntenergy.com/
tax advice http://www.dividend.com/dividend-education/everything-dividend-investors-need-to-know-about-mlps/?utm_source=Dividend.com+-+Free&utm_campaign=8b232b0694-Dispatch_free4_3_2013&utm_
K-1 tax information available on line. See web site under Investors
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