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Thursday, September 17, 2015 7:40:42 PM
The majority of US refineries are designed more toward using heavy imported oil. On the surface one would argue that it makes no sense to export when we are importing so much more but since ours is light shale we will still have to bring in a lot until more refineries are built or redesigned for light crude.
NTI was already redesigned and upgraded to handle more Bakken light crude and can also handle heavy Canadian (or Saudi/Venezuela) oil.
You mention NTI advantages and are correct, imo. I came to the same conclusions in my original DD. I think we will be in good shape regardless.
Below I list a few comments from a 9/15/2015 SA article... differing opinions of the consequences of lifting the ban. I can see some merit in both sides of the argument. That said the Brent/WTI/Bakken spreads would shrink. Still the crude in the Bakken will remain land-locked and favoring NTI geographically, and logistically. (Trucking and co-owning pipeline) .
I like cheap gas prices for the positive effect on our economy but the eventual return of higher crude will mean more oil from the Bakken as the rig count goes back up.
comments:
1. Exports means World Oil prices going even lower.
2. How could oil exports "raise" gas prices? That does not appear to have intrinsic common sense unless I am missing something. We need to compete on the global market place. Maybe we should also consider putting a tax on imported oil to make things fair against the Saudi oil cost controlled by their government as well.
3. If the export ban is lifted, the crack spread decreases and US refineries will make less $. Therefore gas prices will be under pressure and will rise.
4. Oil and politics cannot be separated. Not now, probably not ever.
5. Gasoline prices in the US are primarily based off Brent [international] pricing, not WTI [America's crude oil benchmark], so increasing the supply of international crude via American oil exports would put downward pressure on Brent, which would put downward pressure on gasoline prices. The EIA sees American oil exports basically having no effect on American petroleum products prices, with the EIA calling for prices to stay the same or fall marginally.
Here is the report: http://1.usa.gov/1QfAvTs
"A nickel isn't worth a dime today." Yogi Berra
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