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What can we expect from a media icon.... rflmao
Last night (Thursday), Cramer told people to avoid NTI due to it's unsustainable high yield. Why does he mislead the sheeple with such nonsense when he's got to know it pays a variable distribution?
I know, I railed against his diatribes earlier today but a moment ago I noticed a CURRENT BUY rating on NTI at "The Street," Cramer's own brainchild. Obviously this nut is talking out of both sides of his mouth.
And to think people actually worship him. And I'll bet anybody this will explain why NTI is down strongly today. If it drops more I'll be a buyer. There's more than enough reason to assume the stock will regain some poise in the days ahead.
I despise stupid!
Cramer was always so in love with Rich Kinder and had him on his Mad Money a lot and recommended Kinder stock so often. He must be tasting the mud in his mouth these days and it ain't good. They always had such a stupid high P/E ratio and it was ignored because they had "sustainable" dividend... NOT. My biggest mistake was not to sell when I had the gains tax paid as of April 15th. Now Kinder dragged every MLP down in the eyes of Wall Street. Just as stupid because many will have long term financing in place and cash flow to cover the payouts. The whole MLP structure is now in question due to the credit industry and fed printing press. I read every day how the U.S. is headed for a very big crash/depression due to the debt. The recent budget bill passed by the corrupt idiots in D.C. is exhibit #1. When will someone get the runaway spending in control. They are spending money people born 100 years from now might be able to make, cuz everything between now and then is already owed.
My question is this: Why does cheap energy kill so many stocks that should be booming with the additional use of affordable fuel? Stocks that are powered by pipeline use.
They got too far ahead projecting their growth projects and competing with each other on gathering assets with borrowed money? Guess so!
I don't trust the intent of the article, believing it to be aimed at befriending readers so that they will become followers and thus position the author for a fatter paycheck. There are no proofs offered other than for innuendo---so I see no reason to buy into the premise.
On another subject, inflammatory, I read that last night Cramer declared that NTI is not a good choice du to its high yield.
Stupid, stupid, stupid! The guy is obviously brilliant yet he espouses theories not always founded in logic. He is looking at the distribution and overlooking capital appreciation. He is ignoring the possibility of the committee's rejecting WNR's proposal. He is not allowing that there might be a unit holders' revolt. There are so many possibilities here yet all he looks at is the yield.
Stupid!
WNR is down some today. $25.68 is the number unit holders of NTI would receive right now if the WNR deal were consummated. This recognizes 22.66% of the WNR share a moment ago plus $17.50.
This isn't nice at all. NTI is ringing the $24 doorbell. But I believe it is about to jump sizably for it merits a considerably higher unit price. So much favorable press is coming out in favor of holding and buying NTI---it all points to the wisdom of hanging tough as things pertinent to the proposed acquisition by the General Partner are fleshed out and we have greater clarity.
I've long maintained on this board that I see a value in the $31-$32 range. We are artificially down today because of a lot of misunderstandings governing the oil and gas sector. That tells me $25.68 is hugely disappointing. If the deal goes through I would expect a government investigation. If one did not occur, I'd be thinking collusion of a nasty sort.
Talking about the price WNR would pay for NTI
Last week, I wrote
“WNR would have to fall to about $36.50 (-$6, or more or 13%) to make the NTI offer stand where NTI closed today.”
I thought that that would be an outrageous fall.
7 days later WNR has closed at $36.73.
Last Friday, I heard that short interest in the Dow had reached a historically high level – looks like those shorts had it right.
REITS fell 4% on average today.
‘bout time, as the yield curve keeps compressing.
Any individual or institution holding any part of the 62% WNR does not already own would logically vote NO!!! at the feeble offer on the table. So what will the committee say when they speak? How many shares have been committed for some under the table reward?
Then there is the scenario that another player scoops up shares on sale while they are available at a lower than bid price. We should see WNR and NTI in lock step until something happens to justify buying or selling at much of a different (in comparison) price. Yet players play and energy is lumped in sympathy with any connected to it. Fear rules, risk is rewarded... or not, lol.
Interesting trade opportunity here in NTI:
A purchase now at today's close is good for a fairly certain gain of $2.11 should the acquisition by WNR work out and complete. Variables include WNR's shares remaining constant without significant erosion, NTI's stagnating for now, the market's not coming to its senses any time soon and correcting one way or the other...and probably a few things I'm not thinking about at the moment.
Still, a pretty nice trade for anyone so inclined. If units drop tomorrow in NTI with WNR holding its own, I might make such a move.
Western Refining (WNR) made its bid for the rest of NTI not already controlled on October 26th. NTI opened that day---prior to the announcement---at $25.12. That comes out to a mere 5.4% drop. Compare that with the energy sector as a whole and you'll see we have much to like here. Given the magnitude of things ongoing in the energy sector, I'm thinking it's highly likely NTI will not soon return at least partially to earlier levels without any further input from the Genera Partner.
Things aren't as bad as some think, I suspect. This is a market driven compulsively by frightened individuals. Give things a few days and I think the strongest picks will begin their float to the top of the brew. NTI deserves to be in that select group, imo.
Funny you say that for I brought up my identical concern at SA only to get creamed. Yet now it's coming back to the surface, presumably at a time when we have plenty of concern for things moving in a predictable manner in the oil sector. And now you know why I don't hold a single share of CVRR, having sold out soon after it went ex. A shrewder trader might have done better but I did well enough not to risk being taken to the hog's slaughter myself.
CVRR is at the bottom of my short list at the moment.
There are lots of unanswered questions at the moment. I appreciate your bringing some of these things to light at a most difficult navigational moment.
Guess we are joined at the hip with WNR now, so today the deal is only worth 25.93 as I write this.
A complete steal if allowed to happen. Come on conflicts committee... let's hear you criticize the offer!!!
Refiners with more storage will really make money on the way back up in oil price, whenever that happens. Meanwhile there will be inventory write down here as oil continues to stay low or go lower.
That said, we like these MLP refiners for their commitment to handing us partners the built in windfall while it remains. With the chance of NTI going away from this little subset... reducing its number by 33%, means to me this window was an opportunity and good fortune at least for a while. It is still puzzling why we got the opportunity to be partners in the first place.
I am especially amazed at the lack of concern over turnaround downtime at CVRR which has analysts predicting no payout. These plays seem to be marching to some totally different drum than I am hearing. Maybe the NTI deal has eyes looking at all three and a small amount of support is built around the idea that they ooze money and are attractive takeover targets.
I think that when the announcement comes from CVRR there will be a dip worthy of adding to my 1k shares. I can wait one quarter for the return of high yield. However I should have and may still convert to cash. I got busy and distracted when I was thinking about it after I read about the downtime this quarter. We should all keep a file on planned maintenance to help us with trade strategy. It appears most traders don't pay that close attention.
As we board members know, when oil takes a hit, so it goes with all things oil-related. We deplore the fact that it makes no sense as refiners may do exceedingly well in an oil pricing-challenged environment. Yet perhaps it's our consternation that is really at fault. This is a leading consideration for me, part of my daily routine that has me asking:
"Who am I to presume I know all, understand all?"
And so it is that I can be a rudderless ship at times. That is likely a meaningful part of what it is that has me so thoroughly enjoying this troubled market lacking much by way of patterns.
Yet there are sparks of intelligence here, too. Some posters point to historical post-distribution drops in unit prices. And with that, there's a large body of NTI-aware investors who have been predicting a chamber of horrors due NTI. In no small way, some of this is predicated on WNR's having moved towards gaining full control and ownership of NTI. However, it hasn't happened just yet. And NTI's unit valuation has remained conspicuously higher, proportionately, than have CVRR's and ALDW. In fact, both of those others are bleeding at the moment... $19.505 for CVRR and $20.63 for ALDW.
For the moment I believe NTI is less a target than the others. What I can't say at this juncture is how that may become meaningful in the short term, mid or longer. Frankly, I'm not convinced we need to know it, either. I think it's important that we remain confident within ourselves as we attempt to navigate through these troubled waters.
Your thoughts would mean a great deal at this point in time!
I did not write this article but I could have... except, I think the author is not aware that these deals are often done before we, the public ever hears about them, but he is correct that it's worth a lot more than the offer. I hope his conclusion is correct but I am not holding my breath.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3747986-why-i-bought-shares-of-northern-tier-energy?auth_param=i4ud:1b6jjl8:ff8db199b30bf70b3dc86e3be8398957&uprof=46
You may be slightly underwater but you were quite smart to take advantage of things as you did. You had to have considered units would be dropping but you also recognized the value/importance of anticipating things just around the corner.
I just added 210u of NTI at $25.45. Obviously this is looking like a smart move with virtually no risk whatsoever.
I'm now sitting on 2,435 units of NTI with an overall cost basis of exactly $25.00 spread out over one general account and two IRA's. This is not near the size of earlier positions I've had and I mention this as these are, indeed, turbulent times for MLPs due to instability in the energy sector. Still, the guarantee provided by WNR's offer is obvious despite the possibility of severe diminution of the General Partner's share price. That said, I'm good with my current positions and ready to take advantage of a more dramatic swoon.
Good luck to you!
It does look like a sure thing.
WNR would have to fall to about $36.50 (-$6, or more or 13%) to make the NTI offer stand where NTI closed today.
ADLW has held up relatively well, and the cs even better.
catdaddy may be out of NTI, Pete's position is known, and I doubt there are many newbees entering the fray.
I re-bought 1/2 my position early Friday at $26.09 so I'm a bit underwater.
Just added 100+ units of NTI at $25.56. It's good for more than a $2+ gain when WNR swallows the whole enchilada. That computes to an 8% gain in the next two months, should the event occur within the time period. I doubt it will but I don't think the deal will go through on the terms originally specified. I expect something higher. regardless, under $26 looks pretty good to me for those willing to speculate.
Oil is down so, per usual, NTI is as well. So stupid!
With NTI at $25.55, I'll be ab buyer at $24-something. It could be around the corner.
CVRR is finally dropping but has a long way drop to trust it.
ALDW is dropping too.
NGL---will divulge more on its board.
Far too quiet here, wish you guys were communicating more!
Nothing on CVRR?
Well, Credit Swiss flip-flopped.
Yesterday it was CS lowering earnings forecasts for refiners, today it's:
Credit Suisse analyst Edward Westlake says that he has been surprised at Q4 performance so far, and predicts a 2016 environment conducive to earnings strength....
Credit Suisse has Outperform ratings on these refiners: VLO +1.6%, NTI +0.5%, CLMT +1.5%, MPC +3%, TSO +1.2%, ALDW -2.3%, WNR +1.6%, PBF +0.2%, DK +1.7%.
(fm SA)
If they close the deal after new year as I expect, I will sell in the early part of 16, only because I want to put off the cap gains tax, which is inevitable but I can offset with other stocks underperformance better then than now. You did well and if you can get back in cheap this month it makes sense cuz we can all do the offer math anytime we want. Of course the caveat will be what will we get for WNR when the exit gets crowded, so it is wise to avoid a jam there. Hard to figure when we may see a bottom in crude but I will guess 1st quarter will be the lowest in 2016. The price of NTI should be more stable than it is..
GLTA!
EIA has had that been saying that for months.
Average regular price in M/SP was $1.96 yesterday, low of $1.83 (Costco)
SA right in the middle.
The crack is still way down y/y.
Not getting any better.
Refiners are at 94% utilization
Gasoline imports are up a bit.
the Bakken/WTI diff shrank even more.
If cl stays below $40, NTI's will have to take that old non-cash charge on inventory
.
Most refiners got hammered today (not ALDW). TSO -5% WNR -4%
Credit Swiss revised 4th q earnings down for the sector.
There new NTI estimate is down 'bout 45% from the previous.
They also lowered NTI's '16 pps to $30 (fm $34) - so I guess I could have waited it out. Maybe I can get back in real low.
I sold all my NTI last week at $27.34, a +10% winner.
EIA has had that been saying that for months.
Average regular price in M/SP was $1.96 yesterday, low of $1.83 (Costco)
SA right in the middle.
The crack is still way down y/y.
Not getting any better.
Refiners are at 94% utilization
Gasoline imports are up a bit.
the Bakken/WTI diff shrank even more.
If cl stays below $40, NTI's will have to take that old non-cash charge on inventory
.
Most refiners got hammered today (not ALDW). TSO -5% WNR -4%
Credit Swiss revised 4th q earnings down for the sector.
There new NTI estimate is down 'bout 45% from the previous.
They also lowered NTI's pps to $30 (fm $34) in '16 - so I guess I could have waited it out. Maybe I can get back in real low.
I sold all my NTI last week at $27.34,is a +10% winner.
No computer available, just my smartphone. Wish I could do more. But I did launch a position in NGL so things are moving somewhere. lol
I agree and even the stealing of this company from us on the cheap does not help "the investment community" connect the dots.
I am holding EPD as #1 holding in spite of the fear and downturn that makes no sense to me. I know they can and will pay more each quarter going forward. In addition they bought out their GP so there is no conflicting "rights" and their coverage ratio is one of the top in the industry. They are the biggest and well run "toll road" for pipelines. Now as the price drops the yield rises! Definitely not the time to sell, and I might add here... as there is no danger of a takeover, lol.
In Houston, Texas, this week, we bought gasoline for $1.65/gal. yesterday. My loaded Tundra is living it up on the cheap.
Today brings more evidence indicating that higher storage of oil = an uh-oh factor in the minds of the investment community unable to grasp how higher supplies actually are advantageous to the refiners as more storage leads to cheaper oil.
And if it takes another year to complete the deal and NTI pays $1 per quarter we will be closer to the real value... and if pigs learn to fly or shrimp learn to whistle....
They did nothing... the market reacted to the deal which favored them over us and their stock went up a bit which indirectly sweetens the deal if we can get that price upon closure, lol. That is why I said "on paper". They gained about 10%... the stock part of the deal stands at $10.13 which added to 17.50 cash is a bit sweeter than the day the offer was made public. $27.63 is the exact math at the moment. IMO this company is worth at least $32, as I have said before.
You say WNR has already sweetened the pot a bit. What leads you to say that? I'm not aware of their shifting their original position.
They changed their web site to include the word business... here is the link:
http://www.psac.ca/business/firstenergy/
Strong WTI/WCS spread .... it is a long rail ride from Northern Alberta to the Gulf Coast.
Retail profits will fall back to more normal as you reported. Meanwhile NTI can expand their retail which is good for them long term... Not for us short term. Good news is that it has almost no effect on the payout as we know it's about the refinery and margin there.
I will hold also for at least one more payout or if they offer a better price. My sources say it is worth at least $32. I suspect WNR thinks their stock will rise to make up the difference when the deal is done. It already has sweetened the deal on paper somewhat. Logic tells us most unit holders in NTI will be selling WNR as soon as they have to eat it as part of the deal and will be going elsewhere for a better return. Best scenario might be to avoid being a WNR bag holder and sell after the next payout, before the deal passes all SEC inspections and any other hurdles. Time will tell and its all a crap shoot. GLTA!
Good luck with ALFW - I'm holding at least 'till its a signed deal.
I like my $1+ distribution.
Here are my latest figures on NIT profitability.
The Minneapolis average gas price has fallen from $2.37 to $2.07 over the last 30 days
WTI has fallen $45-40.50 in the last 30 days (+/-, fuzzy graph)
The WTI Bakken (clearbrook) average differential has fallen from $12-$4.50 y/y and from $9.60-$4.50 q/q .
I’ll take your word for last time I looked (11/5) the WCS/WTI differential was up, around 15% q3/q4 (the cc said they were using max WCS: 30%)
My link for the WCS/WTI differential has died (psca.ca/firstenergy) - help –
At the 4th q midpoint, it seems like NTI’s margin may be down 5-10% q/q, about equal to the throughtput lost last quarter. Maybe the distribution will remain the same….
I will be around- throwing my 2 cents around that is lol
And I'll miss you, my friend.
Your note on putting together the music-anchored gift really touched me for reasons I'll divulge via PM.
Meanwhile, happy journey to you!
Guys my sells all triggered yesterday and I am out of NTI -his has been a true gem in a muddy market and I do not want to be on board with the changes coming. Already made a nice trade on NGL yesterday and will be setting up buys this morning as I will be out of the office today.I will move into ALDW for sure this winter and I am waiting on CVRR just to see how where it settles and I will take a modest position there also. Good luck for those that ride this out.
Going to miss NTI
I was able to redeem most of my 1900u of ALDW at $25 yesterday barely out of the gate. It's only 65 cents lower as we speak but I mostly wanted to preserve my gains and also get to enjoy the distribution soon to come.
I think it's nuts to suffer market risk needlessly. All it takes is a minute or two a couple of times a day via smartphone to monitor things. Or set up GTC orders to take advantage of opportunities.
I'm doing this with MDR which has already made me a bit richer and I'm continuing to sink money into it as it loses nearly 20% following the release of positive guidance.
I know this company and am not at all worried.
ALDW sure got hammered yesterday.
Hard to accept the NTI is trading below the offer right now.
Lots of folks do wait out the post ex-day drop, with the rational notion that pps will rebound prior to the next ex day.
Even wait out the winter downturn, aware that there's a rebound in the work.
Gotta worry about unpredictable negative events, but 15% is 15%.
Unleaded runs about $1.95 down to $1.89. A few miles from the Mexican border and a half hour north of Brownsville on Expressway 2.
Cheap gas invites the need to construct a new paradigm when it comes to understanding the market for refined goods. Today, for example, I sold 1,900 units of ALDW and then watched it dive almost immediately. It recovered slightly but I'm certain it will resume the death spiral for a couple of months. Ditto with CVRR which had a nice bounce today. But I'll bet you anything it will be dropping soon and more convincingly, at that. Probably shorts at work, covering lest they find CVRR dropping to sub-$18 as I fully expect.
I think a lot of people figure that the trick is to buy shares in a hi-yield play and wait patiently for the returns to come flooding in. That ain't how it's gonna work because it's too easy and were that not the case, millions of units would trade daily.
Gains will fall to the daring of heart and nimble of fingers controlling the wallet. The dead-cat bounce with CVRR is going to hurt new investors by suckering them in. NTI is predictably going to hold its own as we all knew when WNR declared its offer was on the table. ALDW has to plow its way through the first days following this morning's going ex-Distribution. But it will begin its long journey south as interest dries up in light of the 90 wait for a return of capital.
So the excitement now begins to wane. But we must watch for any developments likely to impact on our beloved MLPs.
This is one of the best places to gather information and get a glimpse into what experienced energy traders have to say.
Here it finally broke $2. $1.99 this morning.
What we need from the Saudis is for them to continue to use the USD, so called petrodollars for trade. It increases demand for the dollar which strengthens it and gives us more buying power. Thats the only reason we give them the time if day.
It's not looking good as far as oil prices go - I expect 40s all next year and we should cut OPEC off and get back to work here and supply our own needs, we do not need Saudi at all. Gas is 1.78 out here crazy but crazy good as holidays approach - I will be on the road most of it.
You've got to be right---if they are smart they'll scarf up every retail unit below their offer price. UI hadn't thought of that but you make total sense.
I am going to wait a couple days here then move on from NTI, 60% of this money is going into NGL - I already entered NGL this week as I was in watching as it dipped, talk about luck now - I will watch CVRR churn for a bit.
ALDW I will wait for a month or two as I have said but I am stoked about NGL and its potential - I am a buyer all day 16-18 -again long term - I know NGL chart has taken a long ride down & you can call me crazy but it's going to make the turn upward in 2016 imo.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/NGL-ENERGY-PARTNERS-LP-NGL-30414/
3 BILLION barrels now exrtra crude stock. Tanks and ships are full... Crude dropped to $40. It aint over yet...
EIA says next year the surplus will fall to lowest since 1992.... I say... wishful thinking! . Who's going to burn up all that fuel... us? Our economy won't allow it at present. OPEC thinks they will kill the shale boom... HA!
Fear rules over common sense. NTI seems always manipulated, and with fundamentals the way they are you cannot deny that the real value is above the offer. Therefore I await with patience for the time when fools rush in, i.e. another announced dollar before a deal is announced. Some will always want to buy as long as it remains public. WNR should buy everything below offer... no?
Premarket for NTI was not looking good. Units were pricing at $26.45 so I tossed in a sell order for 200u at $26.65 which approximates the WNR offer, more or less, when factoring in the Q3 distribution now locked into my account as we're past the ex-D day. The order executed almost immediately, telling me not all was kosher if basing things on the showing computerized transactions. I find that odd.
My thought at this moment is that we're seeing revulsion on the part of the investment community. I think a lot of NTI folks are pissed and it's showing by devaluing the unit value. It is silly if not impetuous to take it out on one's portfolio, given that units continue to hold value regardless of the outcome of the tender offer. These units should not be valued at less than the standing offer on the table. The offer is the absolutely reliable bottom and thus support point. There are very few other absolutes in the trading world other than for the undying opportunity to lose your money. lol
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Northern Tier Energy is an independent downstream energy company with refining, retail, and pipeline operations that serve the PADD II region of the United States.
Refining BusinessNorthern Tier’s refining business primarily consists of an 89,500 barrels per calendar day (96,500 barrels per stream day) refinery located in St. Paul Park, Minnesota.. The refinery’s complexity allows it to process a variety of light, heavy, sweet and sour crudes into higher value refined products.
The St. Paul Park Refinery is one of only two refineries in Minnesota and one of four refineries in the Upper Great Plains area within the PADD II region. The PADD II region covers Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Wisconsin. The refinery’s strategic location allows it direct access, primarily via the Minnesota Pipeline, to what the Company believes are abundant supplies of advantageously priced crude oils. Many of these crude oils have historically priced at a discount to NYMEX WTI.
The Company will seek to benefit from access to growing crude oil supplies. As of [June 2013], the Canadian Association of Petrochemical Producers estimated that total Canadian crude oil production is expected to grow to 6.7 million bpd by 2030 from 2012 production of 3.2 million bpd . Crude oil production from the Bakken Shale in North Dakota has also increased significantly, from approximately 98,000 bpd in 2005 to approximately 934,000 bpd as of January 2014, and is expected to continue to grow due to improvements in unconventional resource production techniques. [April 2014].
The refinery’s location allows it to distribute its refined products throughout the Midwestern United States. The refinery produces a broad slate of refined products including gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and asphalt, which are then marketed to resellers and consumers primarily in the PADD II region.
Northern Tier also owns various storage and transportation assets, including a light products terminal, a heavy products terminal, storage tanks, rail loading/unloading facilities and a Mississippi river dock. The refining business also includes a 17% interest in the Minnesota Pipe Line Company, which owns and operates the Minnesota Pipeline, a 455,000 bpd crude oil pipeline system that transports crude oil (primarily from Western Canada and North Dakota) for approximately 300 miles from the Enbridge pipeline hub at Clearbrook, Minnesota to the refinery. The Minnesota Pipeline has historically transported the majority of the crude oil used and processed in the refinery.
Retail BusinessAs of March 31st, 2014, the retail business operated 164 convenience stores under the SuperAmerica brand and also supported 79 franchised convenience stores, which are also operated under the SuperAmerica brand. These convenience stores are located primarily in Minnesota and Wisconsin and sell various grades of gasoline and diesel, tobacco products and immediately consumable items such as non-alcoholic beverages, beer, prepared food and a large variety of snacks and prepackaged items. The refinery supplies substantially all of the gasoline and diesel sold in the company-operated and franchised convenience stores.
Northern Tier Energy also owns and operates SuperMom’s Bakery, which prepares and distributes baked goods and other prepared food items for sale in the company-operated and franchised convenience stores and other third party locations.
A more indepth presentation of NTI:NYRS ~ GS Presentation FINAL.pdf
WEBSITE:http://www.ntenergy.com/
tax advice http://www.dividend.com/dividend-education/everything-dividend-investors-need-to-know-about-mlps/?utm_source=Dividend.com+-+Free&utm_campaign=8b232b0694-Dispatch_free4_3_2013&utm_
K-1 tax information available on line. See web site under Investors
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