Northern Tier Energy LP (NTI)

[jugs]

Unleaded runs about $1.95 down to $1.89. A few miles from the Mexican border and a half hour north of Brownsville on Expressway 2.

Cheap gas invites the need to construct a new paradigm when it comes to understanding the market for refined goods. Today, for example, I sold 1,900 units of ALDW and then watched it dive almost immediately. It recovered slightly but I'm certain it will resume the death spiral for a couple of months. Ditto with CVRR which had a nice bounce today. But I'll bet you anything it will be dropping soon and more convincingly, at that. Probably shorts at work, covering lest they find CVRR dropping to sub-$18 as I fully expect.

I think a lot of people figure that the trick is to buy shares in a hi-yield play and wait patiently for the returns to come flooding in. That ain't how it's gonna work because it's too easy and were that not the case, millions of units would trade daily.

Gains will fall to the daring of heart and nimble of fingers controlling the wallet. The dead-cat bounce with CVRR is going to hurt new investors by suckering them in. NTI is predictably going to hold its own as we all knew when WNR declared its offer was on the table. ALDW has to plow its way through the first days following this morning's going ex-Distribution. But it will begin its long journey south as interest dries up in light of the 90 wait for a return of capital.

So the excitement now begins to wane. But we must watch for any developments likely to impact on our beloved MLPs.

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