Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Yeah, we probably won't lose much but, then again, we could find ourselves in a squeeze as we try to exit. I don't think any of us like the threat.
When I sold off part of my NTI stake I put much of it into 1,900 units of ALDW. That has paid off really well and, if CVRR post-div. is any indicator, I may be able to grab the distribution and exit safely with my skin intact the day it goes ex. I'll keep 100 units of ALDW as I've done in CVRR. I haven't decided how to handle NTI but you've got me thinking and I'm leaning towards holding for the time being. However, it won't be for the Q4 payout as I could get it in ALDW just as easily and without the question marks. As for holding well past ex-d? There's nothing to gain with the others but NTI might sweeten the pot and I'd like to be in line should it happen.
Do you think King Midas had such problems too?
NTI was a gem these last three years. Bound to get swallowed if they could not get bigger acquiring another refiner.
Don't panic now even if you own KMI as I do. I held KMP forever and took offsetting losses when they sold to KMI to avoid a lot of taxes last April. Now my basis for KIMI says hold till you get something for it. I certainly should have sold at at 41+ but it will come back to at least 35... before I sell. It just might take a couple years though...! I think oil will stay down at least till after elections next Fall maybe even years after that. It will rise when the world doesn't fall apart and economies turn positive. "IF" I should have said. lol.
It will be interesting to say the least. Will NTI drop in price much before the next announcement? Maybe not with the deal in play and WNR up considerably since the offer. Will the exits be clogged with year end selling? Will the price of oil dip to the thirties? Seems a strong possibility. I am watching UWTI for an entry in that case. I won't panic sell WNR if a mad rush occurs and I have to reluctantly own it.
I think what will happen is WNR will increase its paltry dividend and get an upgrade when they get all the cash flow from us! Credit Suisse will have motive loaning free money they now get to collect interest on. But I do not see us losing much on the deal as we are in a good place holding NTI. We don't need more and we don't need to panic sell. If it takes time and meanwhile NTI shows another strong quarter.... hmmmm Hey WNR, show me the money! Anything over 30 for starters. GLTA!
I could not agree more.
The only question I have is this:
If oil stages little to no recovery between now and mid-February, I could see ALDW and CVRR dropping more than my predicted 20% in which case the Spring recovery might outdistance that second payout from NTI. I've already got a sizable cap. app. gain in ALDW which I've held since the WNR threat came up publicly. I'm seeing a rinse and repeat process in ALDW much as I did in NTI earlier on. I'm also leery of the rush to get out of NTI when WNR prevails. A fellow could lose a lot of earlier gains playing rushing-rue-let.
Your thoughts?
I have no interest in holding this into a merger and holding onto shares of WNR.
2000 units of NTI turn into 453.2 of WNR, a position that produces little income. They paid 2.26 for the year. NTI paid 3.80
Exchanging 7600 in dividends for a new position that would pay 1024.23 (based on their past year) isn't in my game plan. I would have to add to WNR and I don't want to. I think there is plenty of time to evaluate WNR's "new company" later on down the road once they prove themselves.
Best for me to take it all out before it happens and place it into one of my others or find a new one. Maybe just keep it in cash for now? Since that is my thought pattern there is no reason to hold it after the Ex. If nothing happens and the deal goes south, I have 3 months before I need to buy it back.
So, you have a beaten down energy stock? LOL
Goodness, right?!
Most of mine are energy related. I like to think of them as my 'Great income with a brutal outcome' positions. ;)
Tough sector.
Good Luck to you as well!
We know on ex we will drop, after that it's just a waiting game to find out if they will take the offer or not.
I hate selling NTI but she has done her job and I don't mind being on the sideline waiting to see what occurs.
I will miss that dividend. I kinda liked it. ;)
A friend spent his career handling high income peoples money and put a brother in law into NTI at 1000 units, so I quizzed him about the deal as he is following it closely. He talks about EBIDA and compares to other market deals. He says the units are worth at least $32, maybe a bit more. That doesn't mean we will get it though, but he thinks there may be pressure to raise the offer slightly in the coming months (look for the deal to finish next year). The question is... what will the market think of WNR when it's all over as they must dilute AND borrow over a billion to buy the 62% of common units.
The new company will be more diverse and have a lot of assets in retail and infrastructure in the best areas of energy in the USA. They may show some decent quarterly reports.
I think we are right to assume the current retail holders won't be in love with WNR so the exits could get crowded, and it's likely to dip but I do not expect their stock to crash after the deal and no other player has surfaced to challenge WNR as it would take well over 2 billion for an outsider. I too won't be holding WNR long term.
Timing of the deal is the big question. If they run at full capacity till years end it could mean another $1 in February. Whenever I sell out it will impact another company which is showing significant downside in the energy part of my account to offset the loss. I feel like that one, and the analysts agree, is beat down and worth $11 or $12 more. For me it's not the right time to bail. Dec or Jan regardless as I feel the risk reward falls off the table with WNR. Waiting for more information. GLTA!
I'm not at all surprised due to legalities involved. The WNR deck is stacked against the retail side and they've got to move with extreme caution. This is probably going to be a painfully slow process but I expect WNR to prevail. And I don't think we'll see much by the way of beefed up counter offers.
My only real concern is that the exits will be filled to the max when the deal favoring WNR is done and their offer will be the lone support basis for NTI units. However, I've let go of a lot of NTI and put it into ALDW which is sporting a fat amount of capital app plus a virtually equal distribution.
There are ways to play this without feeling like a sacrificial lamb. And while I won't ram it down anyone's throat I will admit to feeling a bit sheepish about it.
Is this shear (sp. intended) nonsense?
Len (o' Lynn)
It is interesting that we haven't heard more on that.
It has been over two weeks since they received the proposal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/northern-tier-announces-receipt-buyout-094500036.html
Back then they stated...
Sunset? Funny although in a tragic way.
Looking forward to sunset! LOL
Jobs and energy independence! Public majority approves XL but Buffet is a big donor....
Once again I can see the administration's love of rail shipments in denying the value of the Keystone project. Too bad, but everyone has an agenda and Obama is having his moment in the sun, too.
Agreed. I like Dorsey but we'd already comebto the same conclusions.
There is a flurry of SA articles in my email about the takeover. It is clear that they think it will happen but after reading all of them I conclude that I should hold all my units until more information is available, I also will not buy more, so for now this one is done. I do not expect the price to drop a lot or rise a lot as we are now 1% above the takeover offer according to one of the authors. We could see the deal play out all the way to $30 in value as I suspected. Reason being NTI performs well and it will take time to complete the deal.
We agree on every front!
Good work.....either that or we're both nutz!
The most recent posts have been appreciated -thanks
As of today, 11/5
The PADD II CS is down 15% y/y and down 25% q3/q4
The Bakken/ WTI differential is down 75% y/y and down 45% q3/q4 (but has begun to widen)
The WCS/WTI differential is up 35% up y/y and 15% q3/q4
For the most part NTI profits on this side of the equation are lower.
Throughput is another matter.
At this time, q/q inventory non-cash earnings adjustments are not a factor - yea!
I’m not happy about a buyout, I’m not a fan of WNR, and I think it’s a done deal at the current offer.
I don’t think that ALDW and CVRR have NTI’s potential.
Asphalt is all good, but cheaper inputs are much better.
Last month I predicted the divi would be >$1 and am sure happy it is.
NTI over 1mm in volume - she is pushing for the sky -
OT I am working on this song to record a CD for my wife for Christmas -she is very very hard to buy for so I have to go for her heart - not ever about money - there is a little studio here that will let you record for 40 bucks an hour and they run my songs through a computer music program and presto I sound great. Truly amazing, a buzzed string or crack in the voice & they doctor it right up.I did one 5 years ago for Valentines day- 3 of my songs and 2 covers but the wife had a 3.5 hour scavenger hunt that led her to our mail box where the CD was - I still remember the puzzled look on her face - of course once it started playing the rest is history. Anyway these slow type of acoustic ballads are very difficult to do as you can hear everything.When I play classic rock Guns and Roses-AC/DC type music you get some noise to hide behind. On this, you have to bare your soul.I have a few weeks left to get it done but I cannot let my wife hear me practicing it.
10-4 you can bet they did - give me 29 or the next divi I don't care then I am out on this one.
I agree that"s why I must go - WNR is not our friend and that income will disintegrate as you stated.
Thanks for posting the CC. They provided some short term confidence and I will continue to hold at least 2/3 of the units through the end of the year. It has been a super income producer, but it will be over for us all too soon.
It will be hard for the conflicts committee to find any merit for us minority players especially with the strong performance and low offer. Maybe there will be another offer... or improved bid.
I think they (WNR) have a majority percentage of the vote in their court. They need 13% to get to 51% and I suspect they had it before they played their card.
I will also wait for a pull back at ALDW and keep a smaller stake than here in CVRR. GLTA!
Thanks for posting the remark from David Lamp. You got me to rethink but I'll bet it's not what comes to mind!
The WNR offer is truly a tender. It tells me that NTI will operate as a branch of WNR but it will not be held by the retail crowd. The only way to own NTI is thru the parent company. Effectively, it cannot operate as an MLP under the new ownership.
When we first got the news, I recoiled, fearing the worst---that I'll be losing a big chunk of my slam-dunk side of three portfolios. With an average of 6,000 to 9,000 units since the IPO, a 16% yield comes out to $30,000 yearly. I trade a minimum of three times during the year and bump it up nicely.
When NTI is officially sworn in as WNR's exclusive territory, that income is gone. Totally gone. Their offer is actually a tender, meaning, "Sell to us or we'll take it anyway because there's probably enough suckers out there to accept the piddling cash and a taste of the good life via miniscule share ownership of Big Daddy."
What I'm thinking here is that the public is probably expecting WNR to continue doling out our 16% annually with the difference being that they will be getting a piece of the action before we retailers do.
They are wrong! In my case, $30,000 wrong at a minimum.
Am I missing something here? When I read [i"... to acquire the remaining Northern Tier Limited Partner units not already owned by Western Refining."---I hear THEY will own it. That means I don't/can't/will not!!!!!
True as you're pointing out, this may not happen for awhile. But I'm thinking about the huuuuge pothole sure to take shape when the announcement of the tender's completion and I smell nothing but the acrid odor of my capital appreciation going up in smoke because I left my sorry ash on WNR's Doorstep of Trust. Rest assured, I'll continue playing/trading NTI, taking advantage of appreciation, building opportunity or preserving; and will stalk CVRR and ALDW along the way for they are my primary trade-offs.
Thanks for posting the remark from David Lamp. You got me to rethink but I'll bet it's not what comes to mind!
The WNR offer is truly a tender. It tells me that NTI will operate as a branch of WNR but it will not be held by the retail crowd. The only way to own NTI is thru the parent company. Effectively, it cannot operate as an MLP under the new ownership.
When we first got the news, I recoiled, fearing the worst---that I'll be losing a big chunk of my slam-dunk side of three portfolios. With an average of 6,000 to 9,000 units since the IPO, a 16% yield comes out to $30,000 yearly. I trade a minimum of three times during the year and bump it up nicely.
When NTI is officially sworn in as WNR's exclusive territory, that income is gone. Totally gone. Their offer is actually a tender, meaning, "Sell to us or we'll take it anyway because there's probably enough suckers out there to accept the piddling cash and a taste of the good life via miniscule share ownership of Big Daddy."
What I'm thinking here is that the public is probably expecting WNR to continue doling out our 16% annually with the difference being that they will be getting a piece of the action before we retailers do.
They are wrong! In my case, $30,000 wrong at a minimum.
Am I missing something here? When I read [i"... to acquire the remaining Northern Tier Limited Partner units not already owned by Western Refining."---I hear THEY will own it. That means I don't/can't/will not!!!!!
True as you're pointing out, this may not happen for awhile. But I'm thinking about the huuuuge pothole sure to take shape when the announcement of the tender's completion and I smell nothing but the acrid odor of my capital appreciation going up in smoke because I left my sorry ash on WNR's Doorstep of Trust. Rest assured, I'll continue playing/trading NTI, taking advantage of appreciation, building opportunity or preserving; and will stalk CVRR and ALDW along the way for they are my primary trade-offs.
We may have more time here than we think ...................
David Lamp - Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Paul, and thank you all for joining us today. Last week, we reported that the Conflicts Committee of our general partners' Board of Directors received a non-binding offer from Western Refining to acquire the remaining Northern Tier Limited Partner units not already owned by Western Refining.
There is no additional information to be provided that's beyond what has been disclosed last week in the press release and in our filings related to the receipt of the offer. There is also no timeline for the proposed review process. We will provide updates on the Western offer in the future as appropriate.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3641236-northern-tier-energys-nti-ceo-david-lamp-on-q3-2015-results-earnings-call-transcript?auth_param=46e5d:1b3inj0:3c53ee24b3978fe5b2f8820dcec6c756&uprof=45
Such a thoughtful post!
Thank you for being so clear.
guts or nuts lol paving jobs still go on but the volume of production drops off due to temperature drops - we still pave but short days sometimes 6-7 hrs compared to 14-15 hr days in warm weather - this true for all of us in this market so demand falls quite a bit Dec-Feb. then in windy March we open it up - this cycle goes with your timing on not buying the winter months. I have to move this money here as I am too busy to make all the trades that are possible but I have made some good ones here. My plan is I hope to see the very pull backs you talked about on the other board and then take what ever payout I get in the winter and wait for appreciation and larger divi's. I can't bring myself to buy ALDW right now at near 2 year highs. CVRR has room to run over 25 where I feel in ALDW does not till next year. I hope CVRR drops like a rock after x date I will be there.I know you like doing exactly opposite of where I am going but if I follow through with my game plan, lets see how it pans out into next summer - I think I will be happy without having to bird dog my holdings. I try to make some swing trades along the way. I used to do it a lot but I am just too busy at work these days, which is a blessing in itself.
You definitely have guts! I doubt we'll get to $29 but hope I'm wrong for your sake. Either way it goes, we're coining fine money despite the public's misunderstanding about all things oil translating into the decimation of refiners.
Can you enlighten us a bit on how asphalt's market operates? Do things shut down during Winter months or is it more a matter of working around hard freezes? I'm assuming warm weather is far more conducive to paving operations as there's less need for diluents but perhaps heat and inexpensive naphtha or related solvents make things fully operable?
Your knowledge is valuable so if you get the chance---you will be of great help.
Thanks!
I don't think I've missed the end of the quarter as I continue to hold 2,300 units. More important is that I shifted funds from NTI units previously held and applied same to ALDW and CVRR with terrific capital appreciation. I did the math early this morning and I was ahead $1,651 for my trouble and this will increase, most likely, until such time as I pull the plug. CVRR and ALDW have appreciated more conspicuously than NTI. NTI jumped on the WNR news as it provided a bottom in support of a higher valuation. The other MLPs. however, are doing very nicely on the strength of their fundamentals. Those two are more easily understood and are thus more predicable.
You bring up an interesting point about not hearing anything from the company re. the buyout. I expect we'll hear three things in the near future:
1. We are considering it.
2. We will be contacting you regarding your vote.
3. We have decided to become fodder You can now lick the floor.
I had expected 70 cents and not the $1.04. I'm glad I'm wrong as my ego isn't worth money to me. lol But you did great!
If we hit 29.00 I am out without the dividend I set my sell this morning - that's plenty good for the door hitting me in the rear on the way out. I think I would be hard pressed to catch 27.50 after the x date because I think others will be moving on also but I could be wrong. The deal may take awhile, nobody knows but regardless of what I miss I must go. CVRR with a buck plus payout and room to run above 25 will get the work load from NTI.I have funds for ALDW but just feel its a bit toppy for me to enter just yet - Dec/Jan is what I am thinking but everyday I get out of bed to a new world so don't hold me to it. Today is the day of the vote on the extra funding in road and bridge market will pass on the results but I am 95% it will pass resulting in more jobs in our area and outsiders coming in. ALDW Texas should do well under these conditions.ALON has refineries in California and Louisiana but I don't know much about them - a lot of the same products but with emission control in Cali I am sure.
Only thing you missed is the end of another quarter and so if we hold it past year end we get the payout AND the buyout... or just the payout as I hope there is somehow a rejection of the deal... ( I think I dreamt that.)
Broke $28 today and I did not hear any information from the cc about the buyout... but I did not read the transcript or listen. Just waiting around for the other shoe to drop or some positive news. The distribution was a welcome surprise! My prediction missed low by 6 cents on my guess last month...
as I called for .98. :) GLTA!
Did I miss there being a mandatory cut-off date of the end of December? Prior to the WNR announcement I was looking for units to be valued at $32 or so. I'd love to see that.
As for $30? The other two MLPs are racking up wonderful gains for me right now and the opportunity to take some profits is staring me in the face. I'll be dealing with it when I detect erosion beginning in momentum. But not yet.
Add 1.04 to the deal or more if it is not final before Dec, 31....
This one may go out worth 30 as I have long argued... GLTA!
Decent payday... I will take the 3300 too along with the 1k from CVRR. I would have preferred WNR dropped more into the MLP but they already have another MLP in their logistic WNRL Time will tell what is going to happen and how it will help/hurt them with more debt and A/S.
Very clever of you, in my opinion.
I'm not crazy about question marks except when I suspect I'm reading the cards a bit differently than some others. There's too many "ifs" here for my comfort. There's not been a whole of press regarding the so-called deal presented by the Gen. P and that has me thinking that a lot of investors are OK with the deal. If so, then I can't help but wonder if many of these people aren't more inclined towards buy-and-hold than I am? I prefer aggressiveness. And I love managing my money! I tally four portfolios nightly to keep track of my profit/loss results but it's not about the money nearly so much as it is about making good choices. HDYN and MDR certainly fit a profile I'm enjoying immensely.
It will be exceedingly interesting to gauge how the MLPs respond to some of these questions, given that both shoes have now dropped and we know the Q3 distributions to be about equal. A hunch is that NTI may exhibit a cap due to the WNR offer on the table---or under the table as I assume. lol
In my perfect world, CVRR and ALDW will find themselves unleashed and free to fly if MLP chasers are in sympathy with my line of reasoning. And they will lock onto a couple in particular until such time as they indicate that retail investors are being seen with diminishing importance.
So I'll continue to hold all three with an eye towards building the other two in particular. One thing is for sure---this has been a fantastic ride. Unfortunately, it's not very exciting riding an aging horse into the ground.
I'd love to see you and Pete join me as moderators at the other boards. Together, I figure we can share a lot of perspectives that will prove to be of significant value to the less experienced.
Good fortune to all!
Nice I will take that 1.04 on the way out
Northern Tier Reports Third Quarter 2015 Results
1 comment | Tue November 3, 2015 5:45 AM|GlobeNewswire | About: NTI
Highlights
Third quarter Adjusted Net Income of $140.3 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $173.3 million
Declares third quarter distribution of $1.04 per common unit to be paid in cash on November 25, 2015
Record retail segment fuel sales and strong retail fuel margins
Approved Solvent Deasphalting unit project at the St. Paul Park refinery
TEMPE, Ariz., Nov. 03, 2015 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Northern Tier Energy LP and its subsidiaries (NYSE:NTI) (collectively, "Northern Tier" or the "Company") today reported third quarter 2015 Net Income of $103.5 million, compared to $96.2 million for third quarter 2014. Results for the 2015 quarter included a $36.8 million non-cash lower of cost or market ("LCM") inventory adjustment, which reduced operating income. Adjusted Net Income, which excludes the LCM adjustment, was $140.3 million for third quarter 2015, compared to $96.2 million for the prior year quarter. Adjusted EBITDA for third quarter 2015 was $173.3 million (excluding the LCM adjustment) compared to $122.8 million for third quarter 2014, due to higher gross margins per barrel. A reconciliation of reported earnings to these non-GAAP performance measures can be found in the accompanying tables.
Dave Lamp, Northern Tier's Chief Executive Officer, said, "This was an outstanding quarter for Northern Tier. We experienced an unplanned shutdown of our No. 2 Crude Unit at the end of September for crude tower repairs but were able to minimize the impact of the downtime by drawing down our finished product inventories. Our retail segment also performed well with our network of company-operated and franchise store locations achieving record fuel sale volumes. With these results, I am pleased to announce a third quarter distribution of $1.04 per unit."
Mr. Lamp continued, "Our general partner's Board of Directors recently approved the purchase and relocation to the St. Paul Park refinery of an existing 5,000 barrel per day Solvent Deasphalting unit, or SDA, for a total installed cost of approximately $63 million. The SDA is expected to be completed in mid-2017 and thereafter should contribute approximately $27 million annually in EBITDA, driven by upgrading residual oils for conversion to gasoline and diesel using our excess FCC (FCIC) capacity. Meanwhile, we continue to make good progress on the organic growth projects we previously announced, including our crude unit desalter and No. 2 crude unit revamp projects as well as the construction of new company-operated retail stores."
Third Quarter Operating Segment Highlights
Refining Segment
Refining operating income excluding the LCM adjustment was $147.1 million ($111.1 million including the LCM adjustment) for third quarter 2015 compared to $107.4 million for the prior year period. Refining gross margin was $24.97 per barrel of throughput for third quarter 2015 ($20.65 per barrel including the LCM adjustment) compared to $18.87 per barrel of throughput for third quarter 2014. Refining Adjusted EBITDA for third quarter 2015 was $165.0 million (excluding the LCM adjustment) compared to $121.4 million for the prior year period. This increase was driven by improved gross margins. Refined product sales for the third quarter 2015 were 99,600 barrels per day, while total throughput averaged 90,600 barrels per day, reflecting the impact of the unplanned shutdown of the No. 2 crude unit in September. Refined product sales and total throughput for the prior year period averaged 100,100 barrels per day and 96,500 barrels per day, respectively.
Retail Segment
Retail operating income for third quarter 2015, was $9.4 million (excluding the LCM adjustment), compared to $5.8 million for third quarter 2014. Fuel margins were $0.28 per gallon for third quarter 2015 ($0.27 per gallon including the LCM adjustment) compared to $0.20 per gallon for the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter 2015 was $11.5 million (excluding the LCM adjustment) compared to $7.6 million in the third quarter 2014.
The aggregate of fuel gallons sold at company-operated retail stores plus fuel gallons sold to franchise stores increased 8.2% for the quarter ended September 30, 2015 compared to third quarter 2014 and 10.4% compared to third quarter 2013. This growth was primarily the result of adding 20 SuperAmerica franchise locations. The number of franchise locations totaled 102 as of September 30, 2015, compared to 82 as of September 30, 2014.
Liquidity and Capital Spending
Northern Tier's primary sources of liquidity are cash generated from operating activities and its ABL Facility ("ABL"). As of September 30, 2015, Northern Tier's cash on hand and availability under the ABL amounted to approximately $322 million as compared to approximately $381 million as of June 30, 2015. Working capital requirements can have a significant impact on the Company's liquidity. During periods of declining crude oil prices, cash from operations is negatively impacted by the timing of crude oil payables versus current product pricing. The reverse is true during periods of rising crude oil prices. Beginning in the fourth quarter of 2014, when the Company's crude oil costs dropped by over $30.00 per barrel, the Board of Directors of Northern Tier's general partner established a working capital reserve to reflect the negative impact on cash earnings for that period and to manage working capital requirements. While the Company considers its current level of liquidity to be adequate to support its continuing operations, the Board anticipates making changes, both increases and decreases, to the working capital reserve in periods when changes in crude oil prices significantly impact cash earnings versus earnings reported in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP"). During the third quarter of 2015, the Company's crude oil costs declined by approximately $19.00 per barrel from the beginning of the quarter to the end of the quarter, resulting in an estimated $40.0 million negative impact on cash earnings for the period. As a result, the Board increased the working capital reserve by $40.0 million, which reduced cash available for distribution for the third quarter 2015 correspondingly.
Capital spending for third quarter 2015 was $17.5 million, including $8.7 million on organic growth projects, compared to third quarter 2014 spending of $9.2 million.
Quarterly Distribution
Effective November 3, 2015, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Northern Tier Energy GP LLC, the general partner of the Company declared a quarterly distribution of $1.04 per unit that will be paid in cash on November 25, 2015 to common unit holders of record as of the close of business on November 16, 2015. Cash available for distribution totaled $97.4 million for third quarter 2015, including the $40 million increase in the working capital reserve.
Northern Tier Energy LP is a variable distribution master limited partnership. As a result, its quarterly distributions, if any, will vary from quarter-to-quarter as a result of variations in, among other factors, (i) operating performance, (ii) cash flows caused by, among other things, fluctuations in the prices of crude oil and other feedstocks and the prices received for finished products, (iii) working capital requirements including inventory fluctuations, (iv) maintenance and regulatory capital expenditures, (v) organic growth capital expenditures less any amounts we may choose to fund with borrowings from our ABL Facility or by issuance of debt or equity securities and (vi) cash reserves deemed necessary or appropriate by the Board of Directors of our general partner.
Q4 2015 Operating and Capital Expenditure Guidance
For the fourth quarter of 2015, Northern Tier projects total throughput of between 96,000 and 101,000 barrels per day at the St. Paul Park refinery. Direct operating expense per barrel of throughput is expected to be between $4.20 and $4.70, not including turnaround expenditures. Total capital expenditures for the fourth quarter are expected to be between approximately $23 million and approximately $27 million, including between $10 million and $12 million for the organic growth projects. See the accompanying table for additional key metric guidance.
Conference Call Information
Northern Tier will host a conference call to discuss its quarterly results on Tuesday, November 3, 2015, at 11:30 am Eastern Time. Callers may listen to the live presentation, which will be followed by a question and answer segment, by dialing (877) 728-3739 or (530) 379-4675 and the passcode 48587440. An audio webcast of the call, as well as a slide presentation, will be available on the Investor section of www.northerntier.com under Calendar of Events. An audio replay of the conference call will be available for fourteen days following the call on www.northerntier.com and for seven days following the call by dialing (855) 859-2056 or (404) 537-3406 and the passcode 48587440.
About Northern Tier
Northern Tier Energy LP (NYSE:NTI) is an independent downstream energy company with refining, retail and logistics operations that serves the PADD II region of the United States. Northern Tier operates a 97,800 barrels per stream day refinery located in St. Paul Park, Minnesota. Northern Tier also operates approximately 165 convenience stores and supports approximately 102 franchised convenience stores, primarily in Minnesota and Wisconsin, under the SuperAmerica trademark, and owns a bakery and commissary under the SuperMom's brand. Northern Tier is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.
More information about Northern Tier is available at www.northerntier.com.
Non-GAAP Measures
This earnings release includes non-GAAP measures including Adjusted Net Income, Adjusted EBITDA, Cash Available for Distribution, Refining Gross Margin, Retail Fuel and Retail Merchandise Gross Margins, and other measures that exclude the impact of non-cash and special items. Northern Tier believes that these non-GAAP financial measures provide useful information about its operating performance. However, these measures have important limitations as analytical tools and should not be viewed in isolation or considered as alternatives to comparable GAAP financial measures. Northern Tier's non-GAAP financial measures may also differ from similarly named measures used by other companies. See the accompanying tables and footnotes in this release for additional information on the non-GAAP measures used in this release and reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures.
Forward-Looking Statements and Qualified Notice
This press release contains certain "forward-looking statements" which reflect Northern Tier's views and assumptions on the date of this press release regarding future events. These forward-looking statements include statements about, among other things, future: payment of distributions including the amount and timing thereof; finished product inventory levels; organic growth initiatives including the crude unit desalter, the No. 2 crude unit revamp and the solvent deasphalting unit projects and the progress, cost, details, timing and expected operating and financial performance thereof; FCC capacity; construction of new retail stores; franchise growth; liquidity including cash and ABL availability; working capital requirements and reserves relating thereto; crude oil prices; cash reserves including increases and/or decreases thereof; calculations of cash available for distribution; total or other throughput; crude oil charge and inventories; direct operating expenses; turnaround and related expenses; retail and franchise volumes, sales and margins; SG&A, depreciation and amortization; interest expense; income taxes and amounts and types of capital expenditures on maintenance, regulatory, discretionary and organic growth projects or otherwise. They involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which may be beyond its control, that may cause actual results to differ materially from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. All forward-looking statements speak only as of the date hereof. Northern Tier undertakes no obligation to update or revise publicly any such forward-looking statements. Northern Tier cautions you not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. Please refer to Northern Tier's filings with the SEC (SCUR) for more detailed information regarding these risks, uncertainties and assumptions.
This release serves as a qualified notice to nominees and brokers as provided for under Treasury Regulation Section 1.1446-4(b). Please note that 100 percent of Northern Tier's distributions to foreign investors are attributable to income that is effectively connected with a United States trade or business. Accordingly, Northern Tier's distributions to foreign investors are subject to federal income tax withholding at the highest effective tax rate.
Quarter #3 distribution will be $1.04/unit.
This is better than some were expecting, myself included. However, it is essentially in line with the other MLPS---CVRR at $1.01 and ALDW at 98 cents.
Good fortune to all!
Isn't the question this:
Would I be a buyer of WRN without the "deal?" No! It isn't for me. And if WNR is giving us parts of shares, it's to smooth out disappointment and resentment.
I don't want my cash working for less than 4% when I can quadruple it and have fun. And WRN is up today on news but will fall back as the news fades.
What about the offer, now around 27.28? WNR is now at 43.14. Why would someone sell at $22 after that offer?
I may just take the payout and the cash/stock deal... that way I get at least 27.20 or more if they can't complete a deal before the end of the year. Not too worried about the prospective drop.
CVRR reported the other day.....$1.01, I believe.
And now the number is in for ALDW---paying 98 cents for Q3.
This is right about what I think most of us have been expecting. Attention now falls onto NTI set to report later in the week.
If NTI fails to match or exceed the dollar payout by each of the other two MLPs, there's going to be some disgruntled folks out there. I think about 70 cents should be the NTI distribution but, of course, I hope it is much higher and certainly not lower. Analysts are pretty close-mouthed this time around whereas they are usually giddy when it comes to making their predictions.
Zack's has a "strong sell" on ALDW. That's had me nervous as I've assumed the payout this time would be dreadful. But with its being in line not with Zack's but with my thinking, I'm as happy as a pig at a turkey shoot. lol
So here's what I'm thinking:
If NTI pays 70 cents, the unit price will probably rise another 30-40 cents, leading up to going ex.. If there's even a hint of WNR gaining full control of things, I'll be expecting a massive sell-off immediately following NTI's going ex-distribution. I don't believe for an instant that WNR is giving much thought to the welfare of unit holders of NTI.
I hope I'm not raining on anybody's parade here. Remember, I've got 2,300 units of NTI myself. And I'm hopeful but only to a degree. There's simply too many components to this puzzle and not all of them are presenting positives while most hold a negative potential.
If NTI climbs to $27.50 over the next three days I will probably sell half my position with the opening of trading on ex-D day. And I'll suggest all unit holders consider this as we're heading into the weaker part of the refining year. It sure would be a shame to hold onto these $27.50 units only to see them fall back to $22 by the middle of Winter when we can expect refinery profits to decline strongly.
These are my thoughts only. Everybody has 'em---this is where it's critical that each of us think things through and come to a practicable stance and then execute.
Good fortune to all!
So true Cat, and along with selling their votes and ignoring their contituants they should not care what their salary is, because it is minor compared the the "other income", yet if we tie their regular paycheck to any issue, it gets their attention quick! lol.
Oh yes it should be criminal- the old school mobsters have/had nothing on wallstreet/banking white collar criminals - also one of my favorites is the congress allowed to trade on inside information -WTH ?? I could make some millions real quick if I knew what drugs the FDA was about to approve.
The buyout press release has had no effect on the crazy swings. The pattern is almost predictable still. Daily use by some brainless computers testing each direction and profiting in tiny bits by going long or short with quick covering.... My L2 screen from Schwab shows real orders on one side of the screen and then lists all the electronic testing done with an "if", on the other side. Limit orders at less than ask I presume so... they are real also but why doesn't it appear over on the other side? Eventually the bid/ask changes on the other side of the screen. Just puzzling.
I am waiting along with others like Catdaddyrt to sell until I hear what they are paying... and saying about the offer. Funny how the GP can pay whatever they want for my shares and borrow the money from banks who get the capital from the fed at 0 interest and downgrade the stock to help facilitate their collecting some interest from the GP. It should be criminal... in my world.
The decline in throughput has me thinking we're going to see a distribution drop of between 15-20%.
While I continue to hold a lot of NTI, I view ALDW as being more promising, given the blurry picture we have, due to WNR.
It should be noted here that I work at making money via distributions and flipping. If NTI announces a distribution of $1.20, I might be a buyer in anticipation of flipping the day before it goes ex-D. High yielding distributions are less meaningful to me than taking advantage of changes in cap. appreciation.
Adding strongly today to ALDW makes sense to me as there's greater clarity in that than I'm seeing in NTI. But as you point out, this could change quick as a wink.
And that's why I continue to hold a lot of NTI.
I have not put any up for sale here yet - just seeing if anything else about this deal leaks out - I don't think the maintenance will cost us much and as of today Reuters still is giving them the highest ranking of 10 which came up from a 9 on 9/27 due to improvements in earnings and price momo they rank WNR at 8
NTI is in an exclusive group on 250 at 10 with Thomson Reuters they list NTI as hold even with the news so I am going to hang on and see what the Yield is before I leave
Now keep in mind I do not live or die by the sword of any analyst - we have to blaze our own trial- I have enough control freaks on my 401 and IRA - of course I never want to lose capital but I do not want my money in a bank saving account drawing 1% or 1.5% or less on a CD - that's just not for me at this stage in my life.
look like 27 is coming here
There's no love lost between the G. Partner and unit holders. I'm expecting considerably less than $1 that you mention for this coming payout due to the "unscheduled maintenance" and their indifference to public sentiment. I'm convinced they'll find ways to hoard a bit of cash to cover things about which we will never know. That will cut into our distributions.
I just put a few hundred NTI units up for sale at $26.57. I recognize these units may well be exceeded in value when the unofficial tender becomes a done deal but I like to have control over my resources. If ALDW or CVRR takes a bad hit, I want to be in position to take advantage of things without touching margin or dry powder. At this moment, my NTI investment is the iffy item of the three inasmuch as nothing beats the value of cash like cash.
Are you folks doing the same thing?
Well let us know where you land - it's a shame this is happening but it was great while it lasted. I agree no reason to stay after this next payout and I wonder what all this will do to a payout that should be at least 1.00 even last November we got 1.00
Time will tell I guess.
I would hate to see this type of acquisition/take over replicated in the sector, that would not be nice.
Hey Catdaddyrt!
I'm leaving also. I'll wait and see what NTI declares in Nov and may wait for the X to sell, but the 17.50 is really just a return of capital (although it may not be taxed that way or stated that way) and the exchange on shares is so low - why bother?
I have had NTI for 10 quarters. It provided me with a good income. I'm sorry to see that go. WNR certainly can't replace that income potential - It's a lower div and on a smaller amount of shares after the deal is done so what's the point, eh?
Best wishes! Hope all is well!
OK, here goes my two cents.....
If rules the day!
IF CVRR announces a dollar or better, I'll plow some cash into more units when it begins the post-distribution repricing of units. Assuming the NTI deal goes through, I'm thinking CVRR will look that much more attractive, offering more by way of support.
Same scenario---ALDW becomes even more attractive. Your news regarding the asphalt situation/highway funding situation helps. And, again, I think this is the one for CVRR to beat. ALDW gets my NTI vote in all probability.
Caveat: Since we here on the board are of similar thinking for the most part, why shouldn't we expect to find ALDW's General Partner pursuing similar strategies? The future may indeed hold that these MLPs will soon cease to exist.
What a shame it would be! It's been a wonderful journey, hasn't it?
Followers
|
14
|
Posters
|
|
Posts (Today)
|
0
|
Posts (Total)
|
1887
|
Created
|
06/07/08
|
Type
|
Free
|
Moderators |
Northern Tier Energy is an independent downstream energy company with refining, retail, and pipeline operations that serve the PADD II region of the United States.
Refining BusinessNorthern Tier’s refining business primarily consists of an 89,500 barrels per calendar day (96,500 barrels per stream day) refinery located in St. Paul Park, Minnesota.. The refinery’s complexity allows it to process a variety of light, heavy, sweet and sour crudes into higher value refined products.
The St. Paul Park Refinery is one of only two refineries in Minnesota and one of four refineries in the Upper Great Plains area within the PADD II region. The PADD II region covers Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Wisconsin. The refinery’s strategic location allows it direct access, primarily via the Minnesota Pipeline, to what the Company believes are abundant supplies of advantageously priced crude oils. Many of these crude oils have historically priced at a discount to NYMEX WTI.
The Company will seek to benefit from access to growing crude oil supplies. As of [June 2013], the Canadian Association of Petrochemical Producers estimated that total Canadian crude oil production is expected to grow to 6.7 million bpd by 2030 from 2012 production of 3.2 million bpd . Crude oil production from the Bakken Shale in North Dakota has also increased significantly, from approximately 98,000 bpd in 2005 to approximately 934,000 bpd as of January 2014, and is expected to continue to grow due to improvements in unconventional resource production techniques. [April 2014].
The refinery’s location allows it to distribute its refined products throughout the Midwestern United States. The refinery produces a broad slate of refined products including gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and asphalt, which are then marketed to resellers and consumers primarily in the PADD II region.
Northern Tier also owns various storage and transportation assets, including a light products terminal, a heavy products terminal, storage tanks, rail loading/unloading facilities and a Mississippi river dock. The refining business also includes a 17% interest in the Minnesota Pipe Line Company, which owns and operates the Minnesota Pipeline, a 455,000 bpd crude oil pipeline system that transports crude oil (primarily from Western Canada and North Dakota) for approximately 300 miles from the Enbridge pipeline hub at Clearbrook, Minnesota to the refinery. The Minnesota Pipeline has historically transported the majority of the crude oil used and processed in the refinery.
Retail BusinessAs of March 31st, 2014, the retail business operated 164 convenience stores under the SuperAmerica brand and also supported 79 franchised convenience stores, which are also operated under the SuperAmerica brand. These convenience stores are located primarily in Minnesota and Wisconsin and sell various grades of gasoline and diesel, tobacco products and immediately consumable items such as non-alcoholic beverages, beer, prepared food and a large variety of snacks and prepackaged items. The refinery supplies substantially all of the gasoline and diesel sold in the company-operated and franchised convenience stores.
Northern Tier Energy also owns and operates SuperMom’s Bakery, which prepares and distributes baked goods and other prepared food items for sale in the company-operated and franchised convenience stores and other third party locations.
A more indepth presentation of NTI:NYRS ~ GS Presentation FINAL.pdf
WEBSITE:http://www.ntenergy.com/
tax advice http://www.dividend.com/dividend-education/everything-dividend-investors-need-to-know-about-mlps/?utm_source=Dividend.com+-+Free&utm_campaign=8b232b0694-Dispatch_free4_3_2013&utm_
K-1 tax information available on line. See web site under Investors
Volume | |
Day Range: | |
Bid Price | |
Ask Price | |
Last Trade Time: |